Alberto Update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:08 AM GMT on June 13, 2006

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This is Shaun with the latest update.

The current regional radar loop (Figure 1) shows extensive heavy precipitation already pouring into Florida from Alberto. The heaviest activity is right where the panhandle meets the mainland part of the state.

The latest recon mission reported a 68 kt wind at 700 mb, which translates to near 60 kt winds with the 90% reduction to the surface. This means that Alberto is still a tropical storm at the moment. I say at the moment because although water temperatures remain near 79-80 degrees, the atmosphere ahead of the storm center is expected to become more unstable, resulting in some intensification of the storm, possibly to hurricane strength before landfall.

Indeed, the official NHC track (Figure 2) shows a strengthening of the storm just before landfall. The main problem for the Florida coast will be the 8-10 foot storm surge that is expected. This height is especially high for a tropical storm so residents should be aware.

A look at the severe map (Figure 3) shows most of Florida and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina are under some sort of tropical storm of hurricane watch in anticipation of landfall midday Tuesday.

This sounds like the beginning of a long hurricane season.

Figure 1. Regional radar loop.

Figure 2. Official NHC track for Alberto.

Figure 3. Severe weather map.

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155. Ldog74
1:47 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
And if Alberto didn't have so much staying power, Alberto would have probably dissapated a long time before it even was named a storm by the NHC.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
154. Skyepony (Mod)
1:45 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Dr Masters has a new blog up
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37337
153. rwdobson
1:43 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
What a surprise, the dry air kept getting sucked into the center, and kept Alberto from becoming a 'cane. I am pretty worried now about what will happen when a storm is churning in the gulf in the absence of dry air and shear.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1588
152. thelmores
1:41 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
thats what i say colby, course our left handed meteorologist has gone to work! LOL

this is the most convection near the center since yesterday......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
151. ForecasterColby
1:39 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Big burst of convection near the center, it's still theoretically possible for Alberto to make hurricane strength before landfall.
150. guygee
1:38 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
I don't think that wave currently over the Lesser Antilles has a very good chance due to the digging trough over Puerto Rico/Hispaniola.

Maybe some of the wave energy can sneak underneath the trough, but a good part of the energy is going to be sheared off north into the Atlantic.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
149. dindi
1:37 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
The SUN, streaming through my window, awakened me in Gainesville, but as I write, the sky is darkening and the wind is picking up again. It was sort of like our own little eye of the storm.
148. 53rdWeatherRECON
1:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Ok to all those that think the sensationalizing is over the top. You do realize that we had the most prolific hurricane season in recorded times just seven months ago. We also had 3 of the top 5 strongest hurricanes on record occur. As well as the strongest. At least 1,500 Americans are dead and another 3,000 missing. Almost an entire US city was destroyed.

I'm sory you couldn't have made it any more sensational if you were George Lucas.

I would rather be an alarmist and make sure people get the message and lose no one than minimize these incredible forces of nature and lose 1 human life or more.
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
147. guygee
1:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Forgive the fingers...sticky keyboard, two finger typists...and plain old age.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
145. guygee
1:32 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Hey Dunhull- Trying to recall from last season...Merritt Island?

Looks like that big blob of tropical moisture approaching the coast around Ft. Myers plus some destabilization of the atmosphere due to breaks in the clouds and solar heating should bring another round of beneficial rains to the southern and central Florida Peninsula today.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3141
144. Cavin Rawlins
1:31 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Alberto is time to leave let the next tropical disturbance around the islands enter
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
143. 53rdWeatherRECON
1:29 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Hey Lefty I kind of posted an appology to you yesterday before I left. Did you get that? Good call on Alberto not making CAT 1. You do have to admit there was at least a minuet or two that it was possible. But obviously you were looking at all the data and you knew he would be taking huge gulps of dry air. Good show.
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
142. Dunhill3
1:28 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Morning all from wet, windy Brevard County FL. First time back on the board this year...so what did Stormtop predict this go-around? Category 3 at landfall in Clearwater? Looks like Alberto is outta time. Tropical storm at best. Everyone dig the media frenzy for this one? You'd think it was the Apocalypse if ya listened to the Orlando affiliates.
141. 53rdWeatherRECON
1:26 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
No Hurricane Alberto? So I lose. Who is collecting the bets. Looks like when he tried to wrap any moiture around on the West it only served to drag the remnants of the dry air into his center and poof, he's gone. We definitly know that it was the loop current and not just the dur max that caused the pressure drop from 1006 to 997 in 4 hours yesterday and the big burst of convection. Well done anyone who went with the National Hurricane Center and Jeff Masters or the Navy because all of them said it had a less than 10 percent chance. 20,000 people evacuated (well done Jeb) and hurricane warnings posted tells me that Alberto threw them the curve ball that I thought he could. But now he is gone so we go back to debating weather or not 2 stroke engines and tanning beds are the major contributers to Global Warming. By the looks of it we don't have long to debate.
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
140. Lefty06
1:20 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
lol no cane she is dead. look at radar mosture is drying up. the storm has dry air all i the center circulation is exposed. even if it wrapped up and filtered out the dry air it doesnl;t have enough time to stregthen any. it takes hours to reorginise something it does not have. there will be no cane fromn alberto. the center is alredy starting to interact with land. remebr land is a no no for canes. anyway off to work enjoy the dying storm
139. Cavin Rawlins
1:20 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
a tropical wave just entered the caribbean sea....
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
138. StormJunkie
1:20 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Morning all. That seems about right SC. Welcome aboard. Not too far from you here.

Check out the site some time.

StormJunkie.com where you can find all the best weather data on the web. Imagery, models, wind data, storm video, and much more.

Thanks all.
SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
137. thelmores
1:10 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
well, looks like the forecasted slight strengthening before landfall has started. it appears that the t-storms are starting to wrap around the southern side as in indicated by the Tallahassee Composite Reflectivity

we may still get a cane????
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
135. Hellsniper223
1:06 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
I wouldn't call Alberto a Wimp... I mean, look where he formed and the conditions he was in... He defied all odds and all expectations. Thats pretty good.

lol... This wave looks better than alberto. Carrib WV
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
134. GainesvilleGator
12:43 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
I think the biggest tradgedy from Alberto is cutting Dr. Masters' vacation short or at least interruption it. As I walked outside today there was very little wind & with only a drizzle of rain. I did run into a medium rainshower on my way to work.

Outside of the storm surge I think you may see more damage from flooding & tornadoes in Georgia & the Carolina's than in Florida. As far a Florida is concerned, I think Alberto will go down in the books as a wimp. Maybe 6-7 years from now Alberto can redeem himself.
Member Since: September 11, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 744
132. snowboy
12:40 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

WITH A SLUG OF DRY AIR OVERTAKING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...
ALBERTO'S CHANCES OF BECOMING A HURRICANE ARE EVAPORATING. THERE
IS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE CYCLONE IS TAKING ON
A LESS-THAN-TROPICAL APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WIND
FIELD HAS ALSO BROADENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO.
PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT
WERE 64 KT...WHICH GIVEN THE RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTION...WOULD
CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE. A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 0Z
DID SHOW WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/8. AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE MOVES
EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BUILDING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE TRACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT BEFORE
ALBERTO GETS PICKED UP BY THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE CENTER OVER LAND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ALBERTO SHOULD ACCELERATE IN THE
WESTERLIES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 72
HOURS...AND IS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

SINCE THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF ALBERTO WILL DECAY ONLY SLOWLY AFTER
LANDFALL...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF ONSHORE WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE NORTH OF THE PRESENT WARNING AREA ON THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.2N 84.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 30.3N 83.4W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/0600Z 32.1N 81.9W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 14/1800Z 34.4N 78.9W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 15/0600Z 37.0N 73.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/0600Z 43.5N 62.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 17/0600Z 50.5N 48.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 18/0600Z 55.0N 25.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
131. oriondarkwood
12:39 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
---Shameless Plug---

I am having a informal prediction contest please sign up if interest ASAP.

Also I am trying to get a headcount of how many people other than myself and stormtop are having these types of contests so we can get together and make sure we not stepping on each other's toes. This counts for offsite contests as well.

Thanks

Orion Darkwood's Blog

---END PLUG---
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
130. oriondarkwood
12:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Last few frames of radar is really starting to show some rotation. If it does become a hurricane it will be the earliest on record (aleast I remenber reading that somewhere)
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
129. Raysfan70
12:30 PM GMT on June 13, 2006
Good Morning all in Dr.Master's Blog.
Hope that all are safe.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
128. HopquickSteve
11:52 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
Still 65mph and 995mb
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
127. HopquickSteve
11:51 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
Advisory 13a is out.
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
126. Joshfsu123
11:39 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
It's still about 45 miles off the coast... according to radar. Landfall would occur in about 3 to 5 hours if the current motion continues.

But yes, Taylor or Jefferson/Wakulla should see landfall. I predicted landfall near Taylor county all day yesterday so glad I am looking right.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 579
125. Joshfsu123
11:37 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
Well if that convection continues to increased, 3 hours would all it needs to fire up and that's all it has.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 579
124. Skyepony (Mod)
11:32 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
Looks like it's about to make landfall 3 or 4 counties north of where I'd been guessing it would for the last 2 days & just about where I called for 3 days ago. Not bad, not perfect, hope to do so well the rest of the season. LOL.

About 20 minutes ago a tornado was tracking through Scottsmoor & Mims in N Brevard. This needs to leave us more rain if we're gonna get these fires out..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37337
123. HopquickSteve
11:28 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
I am so impressed, it just keeps trying to strengthen. Someone should tell it that it's out of time.
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
122. JustSouthofEquator
11:26 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
Hello, just joined wunderground recently.
Can't believe the season already started.
I hope all of you will be safe during and after the season.
And oh.. Nice to meet you : )
Member Since: June 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 190
121. Joshfsu123
11:21 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
Well, Tallahassee is getting some of the hardest rain and wind of the night/morning now as the convention on the west side of the center starts to intensify. It's also starting to wrap convention around the south side of the circulation, which would imply some slight strengthening.

As the center is still about 45 miles offshore, it still has about 3/5 more hours before landfall, which is plenty of time to strengthen a little bit before landfall.

Overall though this has been a good rain storm for us.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 579
120. HopquickSteve
11:15 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
Interesting. Even though alberto isn't "strengthening", it has seemed to wrap itself in more convection. There were times where the center of circulation looked 75% dry. It only looks 20% dry to me. It might still bump up to 70mph.
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
119. G35Wayne
10:57 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
That wave in the far east Carribean is really starting to flare.
118. WSI
10:53 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
We are supposed to get some rain the Piedmont of NC. We have received around half the normal rainfall this year, so rain from this storm is quite welcome. I would like to see it dump about 2 or 3 inches of rain on us, but it looks like those amounts are reserved for the coastal sections.

Computer models seem to be in good agreement with the NHC track.



weathercore.com
117. SCCanesfan
10:08 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
So I'm assuming borderline tropical storm/depression here in Mt. Pleasant (suburb of Charleston)? Around noon Wednesday?
116. HillsboroughBay
8:55 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
No "Canes" Today!


Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 13


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on June 13, 2006



with a slug of dry air overtaking the center of circulation...
Alberto's chances of becoming a hurricane are evaporating. There
is no deep convection near the center and the cyclone is taking on
a less-than-tropical appearance on satellite imagery. The wind
field has also broadened considerably over the past 12 hours or so.
Peak 850 mb flight-level winds from the last reconnaissance flight
were 64 kt...which given the relative lack of convection...would
correspond to about 50 kt at the surface. A Quikscat pass near 0z
did show winds as high as 55 kt...which will be the advisory
intensity for this package. Little change in strength is expected
prior to landfall.
The initial motion is 035/8. As a mid-latitude short wave moves
eastward off the Atlantic Seaboard...building heights behind the
trough are expected to nudge the track a little to the left before
Alberto gets picked up by the next short wave. Model guidance is
in good agreement in keeping the center over land for much of the
next 36 hours. After that...Alberto should accelerate in the
westerlies as an extratropical cyclone. The official forecast is
significantly faster than the previous advisory after 72
hours...and is in rough agreement with the dynamical model
consensus.
Since the broad circulation of Alberto will decay only slowly after
landfall...there is some possibility of onshore winds to tropical
storm force north of the present warning area on the Atlantic
coast. The Tropical Storm Warning has therefore been extended
northward.
Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 13/0900z 29.2n 84.2w 55 kt
12hr VT 13/1800z 30.3n 83.4w 45 kt...inland
24hr VT 14/0600z 32.1n 81.9w 35 kt...extratropical
36hr VT 14/1800z 34.4n 78.9w 30 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 15/0600z 37.0n 73.5w 35 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 16/0600z 43.5n 62.0w 40 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 17/0600z 50.5n 48.5w 40 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 18/0600z 55.0n 25.0w 40 kt...extratropical
115. HillsboroughBay
8:13 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
Pulsing Blasts of wind & sporadic Rain in Tampa Bay! Make landfall yo stinker! & slowdown! OrEven DIE! Yeah That's the Ticket!
114. MahFL
8:09 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
We have had 2 hours of mod/heavy rain, some thunder, not much wind. We are now in the new Tornado watch untill 2 pm Tuesday.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
113. Fshhead
7:53 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
Posted By: MahFL at 7:45 AM GMT on June 13, 2006.
I am in Jacksonville

Well? you should have gotten some rain with gusty winds recently
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
112. Fshhead
7:50 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
On the water vapor loop, it has so much dry air in the center, I'm suprised it is still this strong.
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
111. MahFL
7:46 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
I am in Jacksonville.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
110. Fshhead
7:40 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
Jaxonville getting a pretty healthy band
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
109. Loki240
7:29 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
Oh crap, tornado warning issued for us here in Orange county :(
108. Fshhead
7:11 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200601_n0z.html?extraprod=n0z
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
107. Fshhead
7:09 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
that band is over Orlando now
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
106. Fshhead
7:08 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
looking at the radar I see the band you guys are talking about. Was going quick!
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
105. HopquickSteve
7:08 AM GMT on June 13, 2006
The only thing that might strengthen this is the large amount of convection coming off of NOLA. It seems like an ill defined (wide) center of rotation. If it is westernmost point of the pivot that we see on the radar, it could wrap in that convection
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 635

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.