Alberto makes a comeback

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:45 PM GMT on June 12, 2006

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Alberto survived some very strong wind shear last night, and is in much better shape this morning. Deep convection for all of Alberto's life had been confined to the storm's east side, but has now built westward and almost reaches the center. Spiral banding has appeared on both visible satellite imagery and the Tampa radar animation. The storm's central pressure was a very unimpressive 1006 mb last night when I thought the storm might get ripped apart, but has dropped to 1001 mb this morning, according to the latest 8am EDT Hurricane Hunters report. Peak winds are probably around 50 mph--buoy 42003 in the Gulf of Mexico measured peak winds of 43 mph earlier this morning as Alberto passed overhead.


Figure 1. Accumulated rain so far from Alberto, as estimated by the Tampa radar.

All this strengthening occurred in the face of strong wind shear of 20-30 knots. The shear has not changed much in the past 12 hours, nor is it expected to do so over the next few days. This should limit Alberto's intensification, keeping the storm below hurricane strength. In fact, the latest visible satellite imagery shows the shear once more blowing the deep convection away from the center, exposing the center once more. I expect Alberto will undergo some fluctuations in strength over the next day as the storm battles the shear. The most likely peak winds at landfall are in the 45 - 60 mph range. Alberto has about a 10% chance of reaching hurricane strength before landfall.

The major threat of damage with Alberto now appears to be storm surge, with a surge of 4 - 8 feet possible over portions of the west coast of Florida. The waters off the coast are very shallow for a long stretch, which allows a rather large surge to build up. Heavy rain will also be a concern, but as I discussed yesterday, this may be more of a boon than a bane given Florida's moderate drought conditions. Rain amounts of up to six inches have fallen in portions of the Keys and Naples, Florida.

We'll update this blog later today as conditions warrant.

Jeff Masters

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181. thelmores
4:16 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
OH, BTW, MY SOURCE WAS RUSH LIMBAUGH!LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
180. thelmores
4:12 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
hey lefty, how can it weaken into a hurricane? LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
179. thelmores
4:07 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Alberto is now a cat 1 hurricane!!!!!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
178. Trouper415
3:49 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Do you have a good radar link so I can see that convection forming around the center?

Amazing storm.

Thanks.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
177. Lefty06
3:48 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
convection is dying. she is weakening
176. snowboy
3:43 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
convection is now increasingly wrapping around the core - shear, what shear?
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
175. thelmores
3:37 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
the center is just coming on the tallahassee radar
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
174. SavannahStorm
3:28 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Myles, that circulation on the visible is the old center that was shed off this morning. The new center is still under the convection and can be seen on Tempa radar.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2343
172. HopquickSteve
3:24 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
The convection looks like it's getting real pretty and wrapped around the center of rotation. Bet you it's going to be TS about 60kts at the next advisory.

Lol. The NHC one-upped-me.
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
170. Cavin Rawlins
3:23 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
000
URNT12 KNHC 121434
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/13:59:30Z
B. 27 deg 03 min N
085 deg 56 min W
C. 925 mb 662 m
D. 65 kt
E. 328 deg 024 nm
F. 015 deg 074 kt
G. 333 deg 024 nm
H. EXTRAP 997 mb
I. 23 C/ 766 m
J. 23 C/ 783 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 9
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 0401A ALBERTO OB 07
MAX FL WIND 74 KT W QUAD 13:30:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 283 / 26NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
169. HurricaneMyles
3:22 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
The new, stronger circulation is starting to become exposed from what was a decent looking CDO. Cant see it strengthing into a hurricane if this keeps up.

Visable Sat Loop
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
168. snowboy
3:21 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
omg, look at the latest IR - this things is establishing that nice saw-tooth pattern and strong feeder bands and will be a hurricane this afternoon..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
167. Hellsniper223
3:19 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Well, guys... Looks like this is the start of another Amazingly frightening season. God Spead, It'll be a cat 6 in 2 hours.
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
166. tornadoty
3:19 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
As I posted before TD 1 even developed, I am extremely worried about a significant/damaging storm surge. Alberto has a large wind field that is intensifying. Tampa Bay and Apalachee Bay are very vulnerable to surge, moreso than the MS coast. This could be quite a devastating coastal event.
165. ProgressivePulse
3:18 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Morning all, nothing like posting in a dead blog lol. I thought is was rather dead just after a Hurricane Warning was issued.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
163. snowboy
3:15 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Yes, the Canadian model is KING. And what a wild system - the shear was blowing the convection way to the northweast of the center of circulation.. NO PROBLEMO SAYS ALBERTO.. establish new center under the convection!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
162. observer12
3:15 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Any ideas on why the NHC hasn't been publishing the Wind Speed projection graphics as in previous years? Those were my favorite graphics! :)
161. SavannahStorm
3:13 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
The latest vortex message is cutting it close:

Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 65 Knots (74.75 MPH)
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2343
160. 900MB
3:10 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
OK, almost a hurricane, and I have egg on my face too. Wow! This could be one very nasty season. The storm that looked like it didn't have a chance is just about a hurricane.
Modeling (GFDL) showing a move off the nc coast and possible hit later near Cape Cod not so great for us up here in the northeast. Our waters are way above normal temps. Any chance this thing can keep it's strength? Doubt it, but doubted alot over the past week.
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
159. Scrappynan
3:10 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
I know alot of people don't really think these smaller storms are such a threat,but they still should take notice of what the Weather people are saying...Look what happened with Katrina...People are still homeless & what have you..My Husband laughs @ me every Hurricane season,at the start of it,I make him Fill the (water & Gas tanks) & check the Generator on the MotorHome & then head to the Grocery store for supplies,I use to live in Northeast,Oh.& would watch the Weather Channel during Hurricanes 24hrs.before one would hit Here are ALL these people standing in line looking to get water & food & what have you..I use to go HELLO You knew it was coming...Why did they wait & as far as Plywood for thier windows the Day they moved into their new homes down there WHY do they NOT have Plywood cut & ready to just put up & leave..Never did make sense to me...
158. SaymoBEEL
3:10 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
This link may help you see the center of rotation and direction.Link
156. Hawkeyewx
3:09 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Let's not go overboard, guys. There is nothing shocking going on here. This kind of comeback has happened many times in past years. Alberto was able to recover because it turned northeastward and accelerated, helping to counteract the shear. The lower shear has allowed bursts of convection to form near the center, with each burst knocking a couple mb off the pressure. That is exactly what happens with these types of sytems. If the bursts can keep coming at a steady rate, Alberto can get a bit stronger. If the convection gets blown away from the center for several hours the pressure will begin rising again. There is nothing new here.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1924
155. SavannahStorm
3:08 PM GMT on June 12, 2006

Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 10

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on June 12, 2006

The Air Force hurricane hunter plane found that the center of the
cyclone has abruptly reformed near the deep convection...and it is
now relocated some 60 N mi to the northeast of its previously
estimated position. The hurricane hunters also reported a peak
2500-ft flight level wind of 74 kt...and a central pressure of 997
mb. Based on this observation the current intensity is adjusted to
60 kt. The storm has been interacting with the warm Gulf of Mexico
loop current...which has likely been a contributor to the
intensification. As Alberto continues north-northeastward it will
be departing The Loop current and encountering a region of lower
oceanic heat content. Strong southwesterly shear will also
continue to impact the tropical cyclone. These environmental
factors would appear to mitigate against significant additional
strengthening. Nonetheless....given the uncertainties in
predicting intensity change we must now allow for the distinct
possibility that Alberto could become a hurricane. Therefore a
Hurricane Warning is necessary for a portion of the northeast Gulf
Coast.

A mid-level trough developing over the eastern U.S. Is expected to
carry the tropical cyclone on a north-northeastward to
northeastward heading. The GFDL and NOGAPS guidance show a more
northward track...but this is difficult to accept given the
northeastward reformation of the center. Therefore only a slight
leftward adjustment has been made to the previous forecast track.

Along with the heavy rainfall...the greatest concern with Alberto is
likely to be storm surge flooding along an extensive portion of the
Florida Gulf Coast. Owing to the configuration of the coastline
and the shallow Continental shelf...a strong tropical storm or a
category one hurricane can produce a significant surge in this
area.


Forecaster Pasch




forecast positions and Max winds


initial 12/1500z 27.1n 85.9w 60 kt
12hr VT 13/0000z 27.6n 85.5w 65 kt
24hr VT 13/1200z 28.8n 84.6w 65 kt
36hr VT 14/0000z 30.0n 83.6w 60 kt...inland
48hr VT 14/1200z 32.0n 82.0w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 15/1200z 34.5n 77.5w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 16/1200z 38.0n 70.0w 40 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 17/1200z 45.0n 60.0w 40 kt...extratropical

Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2343
153. HurricaneMyles
3:04 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
53rd,

Even though its not official yet, you did call for it to be cat 1, but you said it have already been that strong a day or two ago. I dont think that calls for backrubs.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
152. SavannahStorm
3:04 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
I pronounce the Canadian Model King of All Models 2006.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2343
151. WSI
3:03 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
"
CAT 1 ALBERTO KISS MY ARSE!"


Oh hush. You said Saturday at 5pm. :)
150. Alec
3:03 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Well RECON, you had the intensity forecast right just not the location landfall point....and quit the obscenity....
149. RL3AO
3:03 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
way to screw up the blog recon
148. Joshfsu123
3:02 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
btw, if you look at the computer models on this site, the UKMET model sort of predicted the jump to the NE through the reformation of the center. If this is the case, the Big Bend of Florida is in for a rough 48 hours.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 580
147. quakeman55
3:02 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Haha well you did call it originally did you not?
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
146. ForecasterColby
3:02 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Good lord, this is insane.

*smashes egg on face*
144. SafeInTexas
3:02 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
I don't think that what we are seeing is a result of last year, rather, something has changed in the atmosphere to allow this kind of stuff to happen (a natural cycle, global warming or something else?).

No its me and my weather modification satelite! I want ONE BIEEELLLLIONN DOLLARS or I will destroy your state!

Or, maybe we dont understand the weather as good as we think we do.
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
143. Amorris
3:01 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
does it look like an eye is trying to form just south of thr track????
142. 53rdWeatherRECON
3:01 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
THIS WILL BE MY FINAL POST UNTILL NEXT SYSTEM.


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

CAT 1 ALBERTO KISS MY ARSE!
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
141. quakeman55
3:00 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Latest model link:

Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
140. WSI
2:59 PM GMT on June 12, 2006

Anyone have a modle link???

Here is one. Tis one of the most popular ones here.


I have other model links in the tropical section of the link directory at weathercore.com
139. Lefty06
2:58 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
michael wasnlt trying to hint at anythin just making a joking statement abotu a storm that lots of us thoguht was dead and now is almosta a cane. sounds like 2005 lol
138. SavannahStorm
2:58 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Looks like this thing redeveloped another center under the convection... so much for Stormtop's prediction. You can start to see an eye/core on Tampa radar.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2343
137. FloridaFox7
2:58 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Guess whos back for this season! And better yet, in a house trailer 10 miles inland in Florida!

Woooo! *puts goggles on*

Okay... now to topic. Alberto looks so much like becoming a pain... based on last year's amazing jump arounds in power, Im betting 20 bucks Alberto gets NEAR category 2...sure, no backing evidence asides last year :P
136. RL3AO
2:57 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
After last season and last night, I won't be shocked if this hits Cat 2. I'm just saying, I'm past the point of shock.
135. 900MB
2:57 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Hurricane Alberto....Breaking!
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
134. hookedontropics
2:56 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
While I am not a forecaster, I can recall most storms after doubling in size, as this one did in such a short period, the wind field enlarges and levels off the intesification for a bit, and this is what it looks like with the colder cloud tops not being nearly as prominent as earlier. It also looks to be moving a little more east than north?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
131. Amorris
2:55 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Anyone have a modle link???

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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