Little Change to Alberto

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:38 AM GMT on June 12, 2006

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This is Shaun reporting for Dr. Masters one last time before he updates us all tomorrow.
Little has changed in the structure of Alberto since the last recon flight investigated the storm. The reported center of the storm is actually the mean position of several swirls within the interior of the storm.
The satellite image (Figure 1) shows that most of the deep convection remains on the east side of the storm west Florida will soon be receiving heavy rain and thunderstorms as seen on the regional radar (Figure 2).
As for the movement of the storm, it was moving north-northeastward at 6 mph as per the latest update. The upper-level ridge of high pressure over Florida has weakened, but the lower-level ridge has remained strong while shifting to the north. This, combined with southwesterly upper-level flow pattern, will create a strong shear environment that should do a good job of ripping Alberto apart.
After its turn to the northeast, some strengthening of the system is possible due to weakening shear, but any strengthening will not be too intense.
The official forecast track has not changed (Figure 3) very much since the last update.
Figure 1. IR satellite image of Alberto.

Figure 2. Regional radar for Florida.

Figure 3. Official NHC forecast track.

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240. guygee
3:05 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Wow am I off base! Sorry KS, I misunderstood, I guess I am the idiot...

Well the idiot will be leaving now, but will return.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
239. guygee
3:02 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Anyways I'm off, will check in later...don't mean to offend, but I guess I cannot please everyone.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
238. guygee
3:00 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
KS - Like I said, my statement is not political, I am not blaming any particular poltical party, I think both share the blame.

Check some of the rants in yesterdays blog before you jump on my mild statement. Were you there to complain then?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
237. guygee
2:56 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
I was off looking at the Vis, IR and WV loops, and that big blob of convection is cooling a bit, but the center of it looks to be persistant. Also looks to be moving more ENE right now, I hope that is temporary. Alberto is definitely more organized now, maybe we can hope he speeds up and gets far out to sea before he has the chance to get much stronger.

Good talking to you Randrewl and Feathe, I am off to cut out and prelace more rotten wood under my roof eaves before it rains...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
236. KShurricane
2:55 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Here we go again. Attention all tropical cyclones, blobs and MCSs: this is 2006, not 2005! Time to go back to all the nice little rules we had set up about how you are supposed to behave. Better yet, why don't you all just take a vacation to Mars or somewhere and leave us alone.
235. guygee
2:49 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Feathe - I used to work a lot of construction jobs when I was younger, so I don't mind fixing things myself...it's finding the time to do it that is hard for me. But I've heard from my neighbors exactly what you say, that it has taken a year or more just to get a contractor to come out and fix their roofs. Now I keep hearing the mantra repeated on T.V. and in the newspapers - "You are on our own". Not hard to believe after watching Katrina destroy N.O.

Whatever happened to the sense of community in this country? I think we need to get back to the point where everyone remembers their neighbors and starts chipping in to help rebuild, because our national treasury is looted and the government isn't going to be there to help us anymore. I don't mean that as a political statement; more like a sad acknowledgment of where we are, right now.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
234. ProgressivePulse
2:40 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Good Morning all, looks like Alberto is putting on it's Sunday's Best before landfall.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5267
233. BrianClark
2:39 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Alberto is gaining strength and a Hurricane Warning has been issued...

ROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1500Z MON JUN 12 2006

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 85.9W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......125NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 0SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

Seems our little storm is doing it's best to survive.

Hope all is well with everyone!

228. guygee
2:06 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
I took a bus trip down 95 through Miami to the NASDAQ pro tennis match this past late March (my wife is in the tennis business, so it was mostly a freebie)...from the raised road riding in the bus, you can look down on the neighborhoods, and I couldn't believe how many people still had blue tarps over their roofs...don't know if that was from Wilma or Katrina...but I think that there must still be a lot of people that are not ready for this hurricane season yet.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
227. IKE
1:57 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
yppub...my email address is... reichorn@panhandle.rr.com
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
225. guygee
1:52 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Faethe - I also keep ntoicing little cracks in my walls that I don't think were there before...
I left for Francis but stayed for Jeanne, and the house was creaking and shaking all night.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
223. guygee
1:49 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Randrewl - Kind of hard to ignore when a little tree takes root and sprouts out of your eaves... lol.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
222. yppub
1:46 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
IKE I don't know how to send you a private e-mail on here, however, please send me one at semco_semco_semco@yahoo.com.

I will pick it up and reply from my private e-mail.

Thanks so much. I am only a block from the beach and without channel 7 I am lost. WEAR in Pensacola is useless.
219. guygee
1:42 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
I hear you about the humor Randrewl, these storms can be pretty grim for the people in their path.

I don't care what a certain other person said yesterday about people wanting hurricanes in Florida; nobody who has been through one wants another one.

I thought I had suffered very little damage from the FL canes 2 years ago, but I have been repainting my eaves around my roof (the soffit things had gotten blown away), and I keep finding places where the roof is now leaking and the wood is rotting. I can't afford to pay outrageous prices for a new roof, so I need to get everything repaired myself, and it's hurricane season again and another storm is already coming.

If anyone has some good jokes to tell, I'm all ears...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
217. guygee
1:33 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
THnaks to Ike also for the buoy obs, this storm is worth keeping an eye on...I'll feel better when it gets well north of my latitude.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
216. guygee
1:31 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Same here Randrewl, I'm glad to meet someone that has a good sense of humor and proportion about blogging here. I think this blog is great for keeping informed, and for moral support and even meetng some new friends, but I don't get too obsessed about it.

I just wanted let you know my lame attempt at humor wasn't directed towards you...
Cheers!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
213. IKE
1:17 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Buoy 260 miles south of Panama city has sustained winds at 40 mph, gusts to 45-50, from the SSW. Storm is west of there...center of it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
212. guygee
1:16 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Randrewl - My last post was not a response to your post, just coincidence and just an attempt at humor...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
211. guygee
1:14 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
I think they should come up with a new weather forecast reporting format for television news. You know, that old format where they just show you the maps and pass on the information from the NWS, NHC and other experts is, you know, just so boring.

Let's make it more like "Crossfire"...from the right, here's Stormy Cloudtops, and from the left, here's Sonny Driarre...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
209. SAINTHURRIFAN
1:04 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
not to beat a dead horse but if you notice st will
tell you every reason why he thinks he is right but never comes back
and explains why he is wrong although he was right about the storm not dying
lefty got the track right but missed on the strength so i say they ended with a push.
but st come back and tell us why you turned out to be wrong
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 708
208. IKE
1:00 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
yppub...send me an email on here. Im at home. No one will see it but me.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
207. Hellsniper223
12:54 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Alberto: the little storm that could.
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
206. guygee
12:53 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
What a change from yesterday afternoon and even last night. I had thought the system might be completely sheared yesterday, but now that big burst of convection is covering the eastern half of the elongated center, and the center is a little more compact and oriented more west to east, judging from the first few visible sat images. It does look like Alberto will have the chance to strengthen some as it approaches landfall.

Here are some excerpts from last nights forecast discussion from Melbourne FL (no longer easily accessible in archived form since the Federal government defunded and shut down IWIN):

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TIMING OF HEAVY RAINS AND 6 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BEEN CLOSELY FOLLOWING TAMPA RADAR LOOP AND RUNNING THE DISTANCE SPEED AWIPS TOOL TO GET A
BETTER FEEL FOR ETA OF RAIN SHIELD FOR BOTH PUBLIC AND AVIATION PRODUCTS. WITH ALBERTO`S PATH CURRENTLY GOING NNE MUCH OF THE HEAVY
PRECIP HAS STAYED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. ONCE THE STORM`S PATH SHIFTS MORE
NORTHEAST THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD START TO IMPACT WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA LATE TODAY/AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALSO BETTER TIME FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR/HELICITY AND POSSIBLE TORNADO
FORMATION IN FAST MOVING AREAS OF RAIN TO BE ADDRESSED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK/HWO.

TUE-WED...LATEST NHC TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF ALBERTO ONSHORE THE NW FL COAST/BIG BEND AROUND MIDDAY TUES....WITH TS FORCE WINDS PRECEDING IT TO THE EAST. THESE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EC FL IF TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS CONSISTENT AND HAVE INDICATED WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THESE SECTIONS BUT WILL WAIT THROUGH ANOTHER RUN BEFORE BEEFING UP BEYOND THAT. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IN FAST MOVING SQUALLS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TC TORNADOES. SOME HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM UPPER LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE.
HYDROLOGY...GIVEN THE CURRENT FCST TRACK OF ALBERTO...EVENT TOTALS EXPECTED TO REACH 3-5 INCHES IN MANY AREAS. DRY SOIL CONDITIONS AND
LOW LEVELS ON RIVERS/LAKES MEAN THAT EC FL WILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT RUNOFFS BECOME AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS WHEN THE DRAINAGE SYSTEMS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO HANDLE HEAVIER RAINFALL...RESULTING IN SHORT TERM PONDING ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. THESE WOULD BE HANDLED WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES/FLOOD STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
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205. Hellsniper223
12:51 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Alberto: "I think I can I think I can..." lol
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
204. fredwx
12:49 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Correction make that a 35% chance.
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
203. thelmores
12:48 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Well, looking at the latest wv loop, it appears there are some large t-storms starting to wrap around a more defone center..... my amateur opinion is that if the current storm trend holds up, we WILL have a catagory one storm at landfall...... the last update was what..... 45knots? i would say at this moment, 55kts, and increasing would be more accurate! ;)

we will see i guess, but when you start seeing the outflow on the visible, and banding on the wv..... this storm is getting its act together pretty quickly! :)

amazing last year and this, how fast these storms can intensify!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
202. fredwx
12:48 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Currently there is about a 30% chance that this could become a hurricane.

NHC Graphic
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
201. StormJunkie
12:47 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Morning wbFSU. Thanks again for the video. Let me know if you ever want anymore of it on the site. You have seen it since it was put in the Flash player right?

Thanks again
SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16346
200. StormJunkie
12:46 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Morning all
ypub, you can send wunder mail. Just click on Ike's name and on the right you will see a "send message" button.

Al looks a little better this morning. It will be interesting to see what the other 6z model runs say.

Find all the models, imagery, and more; including WU blogger storm video at StormJunkie.com


SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16346
199. fredwx
12:46 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
oops meant 45kts (50mph)
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
198. weatherboyfsu
12:46 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
The visuals are all that i care about.....Sometimes it takes a couple of hours for conditions to follow whats happening aloft. It would not surprise me if the winds go up at 11AM. Possibly 60-65mph....we will see....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
197. fredwx
12:45 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
The 1001mb central pressure is consistent with a surface wind of 45kts or 45mph.
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
196. StellarCyclone
12:45 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
What happened to those predicting it was going much further west? What happened to all that certitude? Looks like the weather is smarter than us all! ;-)
194. weatherboyfsu
12:42 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Hello everyone..........

Where are the Texas Warnings.....OMG

I read on here the other day that was where it was going.....What happened?

Oh well.....lol

Seriously........Alberto has made a comeback. The lastest satellite presentation along with the first visibles shows that the center has been interacting with the convection that will enhance the wind speeds. The convection is very impressive relative to yesterday. If the wind shear drops much more and/or the storm moves more with the shear(not fighting the shear) this has a outside chance of becoming a hurricane. The infrared pics are impressive! Now im pumped up....I may have to drive north from Orlando.....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
193. WSI
12:30 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
The lastest hurricane hunter report from the storm was not that impressive. Temperature between the eye and storm was virtually the same, and the max flight wind was 30 kts.


weathercore.com
191. atmosweather
12:27 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
Alberto looks like a big beach ball.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
190. yppub
12:26 PM GMT on June 12, 2006
IKE - I am in Destin. Do you watch channel 7, Jason Kelly? I can no longer get the station since I went to satellite.

Is there any way to get a Private message to you or from you to me without publishing my e-mail address?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.