Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:38 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
This is Shaun reporting for Dr. Masters one last time before he updates us all tomorrow.
Little has changed in the structure of Alberto since the last recon flight investigated the storm. The reported center of the storm is actually the mean position of several swirls within the interior of the storm.
The satellite image (Figure 1) shows that most of the deep convection remains on the east side of the storm west Florida will soon be receiving heavy rain and thunderstorms as seen on the regional radar (Figure 2).
As for the movement of the storm, it was moving north-northeastward at 6 mph as per the latest update. The upper-level ridge of high pressure over Florida has weakened, but the lower-level ridge has remained strong while shifting to the north. This, combined with southwesterly upper-level flow pattern, will create a strong shear environment that should do a good job of ripping Alberto apart.
After its turn to the northeast, some strengthening of the system is possible due to weakening shear, but any strengthening will not be too intense.
The official forecast track has not changed (Figure 3) very much since the last update.
Figure 1. IR satellite image of Alberto.
Figure 2. Regional radar for Florida.
Figure 3. Official NHC forecast track.
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