Alberto is here!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:20 PM GMT on June 11, 2006

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Well, I'm back to blogging on the hurricane season of 2006 earlier than I had hoped. We managed to put together a string of nine straight days without an active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic this hurricane season, but now that streak has come to an end with the formation of Tropical Storm Alberto. I scheduled my summer vacation for the period I though most likely to have ten straight days without tropical activity, but the tropics had other ideas.

Alberto is a fairly typical-looking June tropical storm. The satellite presentation is not very impressive this morning, with most of the deep convection lying to the east of the exposed center. Strong westerly winds associated with the subtropical jet stream are removing the deep convection from the center. This wind shear is creating a very hostile environment for Alberto to survive in, let alone strengthen. With the shear forecast to strengthen, I would not be surprised to see Alberto ripped apart tonight. If this scenario does occur, the low level swirl of clouds associated with Alberto's core will drift into the center of the Gulf of Mexico and gradually decay. The main moisture to the east of the center will separate and get pulled across Florida. If Alberto manages to survive, a strong trough of low pressure moving over the Eastern U.S. will recurve the storm over Central and Northern Florida, where Alberto will rapidly lose tropical characteristics and become a very rainy low pressure system. Alberto currently has tropical storm force winds of 40-45 mph in a very small area to the northeast of the center. The central pressure has actually risen 2 mb to 1004 mb since 7 am EDT this morning, proving that this is not a healthy tropical storm. I give Alberto a less than 5% chance of making hurricane status. It is far more likely (40% chance) that Alberto will get torn apart by high wind shear before making landfall on Florida's west coast. The most likely scenario is that Alberto will hit the west coast of Florida as a weak tropical storm with maximum winds of 40 - 50 mph.


Figure 1. Estimated precipitation for Alberto from the Key West radar.

Residents of the west Florida coast should have little problem with wind damage or storm surge from this storm. The greatest threat from Alberto will come from its rains. Already today, the outer bands of Alberto have dumped over six inches of rain on portions of the Florida Keys (see Figure 1), and over 12 inches on portions of Western Cuba. These rains will likely cause localized flooding problems, but given that most of Florida is under moderate drought, Alberto may end up being more of a blessing than a bane for the state.


Figure 2. Current drought map shows moderate drought over most of Florida. The area Katrina hit is looking very dry as well, but let's hope they break this drought from something other than a hurricane!

If there is a significant change to Alberto today, Shaun will update this blog tonight (or I will, if I find another hotel with good wireless Internet, as I continue my drive home from vacation). Otherwise, expect an update on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1154. cTampa
5:11 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
sorry jumped to new blog. freakster asked where all of us Tampa people were located.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
1152. cTampa
5:01 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
from South Tampa here- not far from Bayshore Blvd
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
1150. ProgressivePulse
4:46 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
51kts at flight level correct 10% at the surface would be 46kts, solid tropical storm. forcast to get stronger in 24 to 36.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5342
1149. cjnew
4:44 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
NEW BLOG UP!!!
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
1148. ProgressivePulse
4:41 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
Hades that is
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5342
1147. ProgressivePulse
4:41 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
Flight level Hayd
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5342
1146. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:40 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
C. 925 mb 732 m -- what's this stat?
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45240
1145. ProgressivePulse
4:38 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
1005
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5342
1142. ProgressivePulse
4:33 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
Solid TS force winds right at the center Ndcohn
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5342
1141. ndcohn
4:25 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/03:38:30Z
B. 25 deg 19 min N
087 deg 42 min W
C. 925 mb 732 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 161 deg 050 kt
G. 105 deg 115 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 22 C/ 760 m
J. 22 C/ 764 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 9
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF304 0301A ALBERTO OB 12
MAX FL WIND 51 KT SE QUAD 02:38:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

sry if someone posted this already
1140. SaymoBEEL
4:23 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
Prepare for the worst. I meant Al's death.
1139. Accordionboy
4:22 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
LOL ya
1138. ProgressivePulse
4:20 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
Hey saymo people died in Miami because they were not expecting a catagory 1 hurricane. If that quote holds true, great, I am just as happy as the rest of them. I would hold the comments till after landfall.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5342
1137. ProgressivePulse
4:17 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
Night Normal
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5342
1136. SaymoBEEL
4:16 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
Alberto is starting to remind me of a famous quote.

The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.
Mark Twain

1135. ProgressivePulse
4:16 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
I haven't seen the white towel from Alberto yet, don't disreguard it.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5342
1134. NormalGuy
4:15 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
Night Pulse
1132. ProgressivePulse
4:13 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
And I am going to be in the NE quadrant of my bed here, goodnight all.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5342
1131. SaymoBEEL
4:13 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
The center is south of Gulf Shores,AL. Is that right?
1130. ProgressivePulse
4:10 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
That flare of convection is in the E to NE quadrant of the center.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5342
1129. NormalGuy
4:10 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
what are the Tops at right at the center,...

I meant, what are the cloud tops at the Center, if there is one..>>
1128. SaymoBEEL
4:09 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
NG, I think SJ is right. But, it may catch up too. If we can get some of that rain in Mobile. My poor grass is THIRSTY.
1127. StormJunkie
4:08 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
No sweat NG. That is why I created the site:)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16440
1126. NormalGuy
4:08 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
what are the Tops at right at the center, if anyone knows, I agree with Junkie, looks like what little convection that is there is pushing up so far it overpowers the actual rotation, hence commiting TS Suicide, quick someone get the anti-depressants...LOL
1125. StormJunkie
4:06 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
Or what PP said

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16440
1123. NormalGuy
4:05 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
thanks Junkie, I am there now, looking at all of it..
1122. StormJunkie
4:04 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
It looks more like the outfow from Al are what is shearing it. Very odd.

Sorry NG go to the Tropical section then Imagery
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16440
1121. ProgressivePulse
4:03 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
Just a side note, if you look at the big picutue, the stroms at the yucatan channel and all the weather from the south east is all a part of Alberto.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5342
1120. NormalGuy
4:01 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
SaymoBEEL, correct me if I'm wrong but that pop over the Yucatan "almost" looks like it is trying to merge, or "Catch Up" with AL...am I seeing this right...
1119. StormJunkie
4:01 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
NG

Go to StormJunkie.com and then go to the Imagery section.

There is a lot more there also.

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16440
1117. BigBabu
3:59 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
BigBabu checking in from Land O' Lakes, FL.

A hard rain's a gonna fall.
1116. NormalGuy
3:58 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
Where can I go to get a relatively new visible loop??
1115. SaymoBEEL
3:58 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
Link

IR2 easy to see rotation and Yuctan Pop.

Give me a 6pack of Yucatan Pop.
1113. tampaJoe
3:55 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
I'm Near Oldsmar in Hills Cty...
1112. StormJunkie
3:54 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
It is not really spinning. There is shear that is pushing the tops of the clouds off that make it look like it is spinning the opposite way of Al.

That flair up near the center of Al is still growing. It could move a little closer to Tampa and then take a Northward jog before heading back to the NE. This may allow it a short window for strengthening. The new convection is just getting blown off like the rest of the convection. It has to wrap in order to be anything more then just a flair up.

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16440
1111. ProgressivePulse
3:53 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
It is kinda neat to see the storms over the yucatan flare and die in unison with the flare up at the eye of Alberto
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5342
1110. freakster
3:52 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
by the way, all you "tampa" people, where you from? im in new port richey, hidden amongst the retirees :P
1109. SaymoBEEL
3:52 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
Good night. today was a good warm up for the season. It was good to see many of you all again. By the way, Katrina divided Dauphin Island into two. There is about a two mile stretch of water between Dauphin Island and Dauphin Island "West". I saw it for the first time last month. WOW
1108. tampaJoe
3:50 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
Progressive the models 2-3 days ago called for a high Cat1....your right...Katrina in S Florida...Charley in 04.....Opal in 95...Wilma...I could go on and on....intensity is not their forte....
1107. freakster
3:50 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
TampaCat5 - I was thinking that, too, but can you explain how...
1. its further away from the center yet larger than the other convection
2. it is spinning clockwise in relation to the center of circulation

just curious
/no meteorological training
1105. WeatherWizard
3:49 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
Does anyone know why the NHC has no strike probability product on this storm?
1104. ProgressivePulse
3:48 AM GMT on June 12, 2006
sorry for the double post, this blog is needing an upgrade
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5342

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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