First Tropical Depression has formed!!!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:37 PM GMT on June 10, 2006

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Since Dr. Masters is on vacation for the next few days, the other meteorologists here at Weather Underground will fill in for him as best as we can. For even more information on TD One, please see WCSC Hurricane Center's blog.

TD One has indeed formed and Figure 1 shows a ball of dense clouds spreading over western Cuba and a smaller ball of clouds just off the coast of Belize. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts and the storm has a poorly defined center.

The official NHC track (Figure 2) shows a general northeastward curve of TD One through the Gulf of Mexico, becoming Tropical Storm Alberto and then crossing the heart of Florida as a tropical storm.

Historically speaking (Figure 3), storms that have passed near where TD One currently lies generally move through the Gulf of Mexico while recurving towards Florida. There have been a few storms, however, that pinpointed western Florida and the Mississippi/Alabama area.

Let's wait a bit for the hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate the depression later in the day. But, of immediate importance is the torrential rainfall that is possible for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Monstrous flash flooding and mudslides are certainly possible so residents should be aware.

Figure 1. Satellite image of TD One.

Figure 2. NHC track.

Figure 3. Historical tracks.

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1324. guygee
4:34 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
TS Alberto may just be a low-level swirl, but it is very large and impressive low-level swirl. A small area of deep convection is trying to form on the SW side, with the tops blowing off directly towards the low-level center.

It will be interesting to see if it can actually redevelop deep convection tonight, though I cannot recall seeing a system in the Gulf recover like that once it has become totally decoupled like Alberto is now.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
1323. isobar5
3:52 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
For something that is not supposed to affect this are it sure has wide reaching effects, check this out.


The NWS in N.O sounds little more concerned this morning in reference to TS Alberto issuing an updated discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

.UPDATE...
IN THE PROCESS OF UPDATING THE ZONES AND DIGITAL PRODUCTS TO
REFLECT ONGOING CHANGES AND TRENDS REGARDING NEW DEVELOPMENTS WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #1 AND ITS AFFECTS ON LOCAL WEATHER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
EXPOSED NEAR 23.7N 88.3W...WITH SPIRAL BANDS THAT EXTEND ALL THE
WAY NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOVEMENT BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 290/08KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS
REMOVED OF THIS EXPOSED CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH AND WELL
EAST...HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER APPEARS
TO BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING IN THE LIX CWA COASTAL WATERS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS AT TIMES NEAR CONVECTION AT SEA.
WILL BE UPDATING COASTAL WATERS FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS THREAT.

THE UPDATED ZONES WILL REFLECT SOME POPS IN A GRADIENT FROM 10
PERCENT INTERIOR TO 50 PERCENT IN THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME BUT NOT TRULY INDICATIVE OF THE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT THAT T.D. 1 APPEARS TO BE
BRINGING WESTWARD. WILL ALSO UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO
INTRODUCE THREAT OF STORMS AND SQUALLS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
1322. Hellsniper223
3:40 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Hey, Supposing this systems survives the hordes or dry air and the wind shear, The NHC has to be wrong on the track. I Don't see any compensation on the track for how far west the system really is. And if there is any the NHC just made it take a sharper turn toward the big bend. If you ask me... The're being lazy... I'de say it will land somwhere around apalachacola or panama city.
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
1320. weatherboyfsu
3:30 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Hello Hawkeye.....All the regulars are returning....nice to here from you.......
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1319. Hawkeyewx
3:27 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Everything Lefty and Chaser have said is correct, and the 11am NHC discussion says the same thing. Alberto is in real bad shape from strong shear and dry air. The circulation has managed to become better defined overnight and this morning, but there is no significant convection anywhere near the center. With regard to the movement being a bit farther west, that's what happens when a storm has a very shallow core.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1923
1318. weatherboyfsu
3:27 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Hey Lefty are you going to chase any storms this year?

Whats up Hurricanechaser, Stormtop, and everyone else?

I know, I know, its sad that mothernature has such a grip on us. I know the rest of you guys blood pressure goes up during hurricane season just like mine. I enjoy the debating and the fact that im not the only one in this world that is a nerd about the weather........cheers to all of us.......I will drink something later this evening....

This storm would be great for beginner stormchasers.......so get in gear..........
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1317. wxwatcher
3:26 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Excerpt from FD, NWS CRP...

THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF TD #1 EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CONSENSUS SOLN IS
STILL CALLING FOR LANDFALL TO OCCUR ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA IN 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET...ECMWF
AND THE MM5 FROM FSU TRACK THE HIGHLY SHEARED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE LATEST SATL
LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN LOW LVL CENTER IS FURTHER WEST AT AROUND
23.61N...87.58W SPINNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A JOG IN THE FCST TO
THE LEFT MAY OCCUR AS A RESULT.
1315. 99lsfm2
3:22 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
New blog Jeff is back.
1314. wxwatcher
3:22 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Ahh come on, Lefty has been drinking the Kool-Aid mixed by the NHC since yesterday... Whatever they say, he echos, as with most people on here. I think me and ST and one or two others were saying West since yesterday morning.

Don't come on here and say "well, we were all pretty much agreeing on West"... yadda yadda yadda...

I'm pumping my chest this morning, but I must say, I honestly don't know how long this WWD track is going to last.... gotta check a few things out.....
1313. STORMTOP
3:20 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
tony i thought you were going to bed.....you need sleep tony goodnight the storm will be here when you get up....i suppose you dont see a low to the sw of it huh tony i thought you knew something about weather i guess i was wrong...goodnight
1312. SAINTHURRIFAN
3:20 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
BOYS BOYS YALL NEED TO GIVE THIS COMPUTER A BREAK AND DO SOME CHORES
lol just picked the veggies in my garden thought i was in asauna.yes
the upper air pattern is changing in land much more moisture in the air get out and work in it
but i dont see that dry air going anywhere st john hope always said that dry air was the roadblock on
move ment for astorm. anyone remember barry in 2001 in july it was much like this system got to 88 degrees
hit the dry air road block and skirted ne to fla panhandle. icant argue with st on the nhc just look at thier
records in the archive disscussions how much they waffle on these gulf storms and they did this with
geeorgr earl gordon charly ivan katrina rita and these were not weak sheered systems. but i agree that this will be
another bonny of 2004 weeeeeeeeeek. on the computermodels look who feeds them the info lol. and tony long one like yours sorry
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 708
1311. Lefty06
3:19 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
i am not forcasting anything just stating what i see. i never said it would bor or wouldn't be a ts. i have stated it will never be a hurricane. i have also stated the resons why it woudl do one thing or another. things we canlt forcast it will do. its up to the system now. if it survives recurve. if it doesnlt it drifts. gthats all i am saying. and right now i am will be shocked of he is a ts for that long. since the nice fklare up ion the east side showed uo the convection has died considerably and has become eeven further away from the cenetr. he is possibly detaching and i noticed in high res visible imagery the cenetr no longer looks as orginised and has become more broud. less bands than it had this mornign at 6-7am.
1310. wxgssr
3:18 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Watch the BAMS and BAMM. They will have the best track as the circ is confined to low and mid levels. Upper level is pure SW flow. That is what is driving the other models to take it NE.

Best thing that will come out of Alberto is rain along FL, and more moisture advection into the atmsphere in the N and W gulf. Need to get an MT vice CP(modified) airmass along the Gulf coast and SE so we can get some airmass TRW. Everybody needs rain down here.

I'm off to P'Cola in a couple hours to catch some waves before dark. Gonna be sloppy and sideshore...but ya gotta get what ya can get if you are along the Gulf Coast. Should get a few nice drops hopefully.
1309. weatherboyfsu
3:18 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Ok.........now, now, guys.........lets play nice....If everyone has been reading these blogs since they started we all know what everyone has predicted on here....I havent seen anyone on here perfect.....StormTop, you said last weekend that this area wasnt going to do anything and never had a chance to even come close to florida.......I believe you said Mexico or the southern Texas coast......Im here in orlando and getting prepared for my visit with Alberto which if the NHC is correct, means that i will only have to drive about 75 miles..........i will post video if theirs anything to video.....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1308. hurricanechaser
3:17 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
I am sticking with my orifginal forecast of no more than a 45-55 mph tropical storm between Pensacola and Tampa and if I am wrong on it its going to be because it weakened and as it currently is doing right now.

I will be shocked and eat my words if I wrong any other way on this forecast such as it going to Texas or SW La. as a tropical storm just for the record.

I am seriously not trying to be disagreeable Stormtop but I don't honetly see how it's possible.

Since I have done this professionally, I most certainly understanding being incorrect is part of the profession too often in such an inexact science as this and I may ultimately be wrong here but I just can't imagine it happening in all honesty.


1307. STORMTOP
3:16 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
lol thanks boomer
1306. WildHorseDesertTx
3:16 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Actualy Lefty and Stormptop, ya'll are somewhat in agreement, as far as the possible more north-west or westerly turn this thing will take....from what I see both of you saying, the disagreement is on whether Alberto will maintain it's strength as it moves more westward. Am I right about that?
I am in agreement with Lefty about it loosing it's punch and becoming nothing more than a rain event if it turns more westerly. I think it is going to turn even more west that either of you guys are saying, and cross the mid Texas coast as a rain event, if that.
Member Since: July 23, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 107
1305. TheBoomer
3:15 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Stormtop was mostly right, telling us TD1
would be Alberto by 5am. It became a TD with the 11am adv. Thats reasonably close, I'll score it like a neighborhood double play at 2nd base and give ST a correct on this, getting ST off the schneid.

Score for the season:

Mother Nature 3
Storm Top 1

We'll see if ST's prediction that fla is off the hook hold true.
1304. Pensacola21
3:14 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Will someone do me a favor and post a map that has the high pressure systems and cold fronts listed.. Not a loop, just a still picture with graphics.. Know what I mean?

Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
1303. STORMTOP
3:12 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
myles i stick to my forecast i dont change it everytime a new advisory comes out...sure they will be changes on the way just like i said the storm will come to a screeching halt in about 12 hours because of the upper level low to the sw of it but it will give alberto more time over the warm waters...i said everything that was going to happen from the get go with this system i predicted the westerly component early yesterday morning and everyone in here except a few thought i was crazy...wise up myles i did nothing wrong but stick to my guns on this...this is not a contest its a serious thing we could have here since this away from the land area now...so dont hop all over me pal i havent seen you come up with crap on this you are a hypocrite who likes to criticize any chance you get....
1302. Lefty06
3:12 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
jflorida the low level flow. the same flow that steers tropical waves from africa accross the atlantic. a week system is shallow and steered by the shallow envirmonet. a strong or complex storm is vertically stack so its harder to steer
1301. SEFL
3:11 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Glad to see y'all picked right back up where you left off. I am glad for the comic relief when things get really going.
1300. fredwx
3:10 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
RE Alberto:
The 1004mb central pressure also calculates to a surface wind of 35kts for Gulf of Mexico systems. The official estimate of max surface winds is 40Kts or about 45mph but this might be slightly on the high side.

The center is far removed from the heavy convection and there is still a lot of dry air on the north and west side of Alberto so it may not live long. Also, the historical tracks also suggest a track farther to the west and north of the official track but this one likely will not have any significant impact other than some much needed rainfall to areas south and east of the track.
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
1299. wxwatcher
3:10 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Ah- HEM.... Ah-HEM! Good morning America How Are You? Well, the NE'rs out there are probably scratching their heads wondering how a few people predicted this "more westward" component.

Now let's recap what stormtop and myself said yesterday..... MORE WWD...

Ah-HEM, I hate bragging, but we just can't let that pass. High Five ST.
1297. Cavin Rawlins
3:09 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
dont bother with them...u said the tropical depression will moved NW...it did so overnoght, then this morning u said it would become ts alberto......
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1296. Lefty06
3:08 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
stormtop if the system survives it will be verticaly stacked and the whole system will be steered by the trough and recurved ne. if the system weaknes as it apears it is currently doing and decouples the mid and upper level enrgy will move ne ahead of the amplified trough and the low level circulation will be exposed and drift west in the low level flow. it will than evaporate away quickly in the dry gulf. the key is if he survives the shear and dry air and can maittian verticaly stacked. i donlt know why u donlt under stand that. even the nhc stated this in the 11am disscussion

IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A PARTIALLY COHERENT VERTICAL STRUCTURE...IT
WOULD RESPOND TO THIS STEERING REGIME BY TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...IF ALBERTO BECOMES EVEN MORE SEVERELY SHEARED...
IT WOULD MORE LIKELY RESPOND TO SHALLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW
AND REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE WEAKENING.





see its not so cut and dry as where will it go. it depends on if it holds togetehr if ti does it will recurv ne. if it decouples llc drifts west. got it?
1295. STORMTOP
3:07 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
thanks weather 456 im trying but as usual get lots of insults...
1294. HurricaneMyles
3:06 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
STORMTOP,

Stop trying to make your forecast right now matter what. THINGS CHANGE, forecasts have to change, too. A good forecaster rolls with the punches and updates his forecasts appropriatly. He doesnt stick to his orginal forecast because he doesnt want to be wrong.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
1293. Cavin Rawlins
3:05 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
STORMTOP....u are the real man of the this blog.....everything u said is coming true....keep letting us know.....
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1291. STORMTOP
3:04 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
good tony go night night
1290. STORMTOP
3:03 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
lefty whats it going to be ne or west you keep hedging here i made a forecast you make one and quit changing everytime a new advisory comes out..you said at 8am it was no way it would make a tropical storm and it was falling apart now come on lefty you going to say you didnt say that too...did you get enough sleep last night your memory seems to be foggy lefty...
1289. GPTGUY
3:02 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Im thinking Keaton Beach, FL. 55 mph
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
1288. teamcasey
3:02 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Well, we have the coolest cloud formations popping up like mad...off to the beach to snap some pics of the sky! :+)
1287. hurricanechaser
3:01 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
It takes me way too long to post (lol) and thanks snowboy.:)

Even though I have forecasted a 45-55 mph at most tropical storm.

It doesn't change the situation as I see it that this storm is in a weakening phase and if it continues for the aforementioned reasons, it will not survive.

The key word being "if" and I/we will know alot more after I wake up if I can pull myself away from here.:)

1286. Lefty06
3:01 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
lol this thing has as much chance as reachuing hurricane ststaus as i do of winnign the lottery and i donlt play the lottery. it has an exposed center. those flight level winds were recorded 125 or so miles away from the center and were imbedded in some intense convection that has sense died way down and has warmed significantly. he will struggle to maitian ts status at best
1285. SMU88
2:59 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Alberto is born!!
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
1284. STORMTOP
2:59 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
yes gpt guy i do wit it slowing down to a crawl in the next 12 hours a watch will go up sometime monday for the sw la coast and upper texas coast.....
1283. Lefty06
2:58 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
um stormtop there is gping to e a shortwave to pull her ne. i think everyone sees that but u. if she decouples from her mid levels she will drift west and fall aprt.
1282. NAtlanticCyclone
2:58 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
Doesn't stronger upper level winds in a cyclone mean its getting stronger by it takes longer for the winds to mix down to the surface. So this means it now has a better chance at reaching hurricane status. This is what I believe is right ST. and if that stall is correct we could be looking at a strong hurricane tomorrow or Tuesday.
1281. GPTGUY
2:57 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
ST you still think SW LA-upper Texas coast?
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
1280. 99lsfm2
2:57 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
I predict that we get a new Blog within the hour.
1279. Lefty06
2:56 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
stormtop who said anythign about computers. this syetm is struggling and that convection that got that reading is long gone. my anylasis is based on obs not computers. satelite prentation, exposed center, elongation of center, dying convection, dry air intrusion in the center. i ahve said nothing about computers. u my friend have talked about these computers not me
1278. STORMTOP
2:56 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
i cant believe the NHC IS sticking to the ne again...they are so dam consevative with hte computers there is no way that alberto will make a sharp turn like that with nothing to steer it that way...whats wrong with those people they are going to keep listening to those crapy computers didnt they learn their lesson last year with katrina...i wonder..
1277. HurricaneMyles
2:56 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
It is Alberto. Newest NHC discussion confirms it.

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A 1400-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OF 51 KT IN A BAND OF STRONG WINDS WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. THERE WAS A 1200 UTC SHIP REPORT OF 33 KT IN THAT SAME
AREA. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM. HAVING SAID THAT...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
THE STORM IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS
NOW FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
DISPLACE DEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT THIS SHEAR TO INCREASE...SO NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL PREDICTIONS.
THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN EARLIER
PREDICTED...HOWEVER A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION MAY NOW BE
DEVELOPING. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A PARTIALLY COHERENT VERTICAL STRUCTURE...IT
WOULD RESPOND TO THIS STEERING REGIME BY TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...IF ALBERTO BECOMES EVEN MORE SEVERELY SHEARED...
IT WOULD MORE LIKELY RESPOND TO SHALLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW
AND REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE WEAKENING. THIS LATTER
SCENARIO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN...THE TRACK PREDICTION FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...
GFDN...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS MODEL TRACKS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY.

FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
1276. Amorris
2:55 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
check out this photo of TS Alberto Link
1274. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:53 PM GMT on June 11, 2006
anyway, later all have a good day
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45211

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.