Texas air pollution study gets help from the Hurricane Hunters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:52 PM GMT on May 19, 2006

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Houston and Los Angeles rank as the two most polluted or cities in the U.S. To address the problem in Houston, a series of air pollution field studies have been run over the past decade in Texas to help understand the what is going on, and come up with the best emission control strategies needed to reduce ozone pollution levels. The TexAQS II Air Quality Field Study is that latest effort to do so. The field study, slated to run through September of this year, will take a broad number of surface based and airborne air pollution and meteorology measurements. A key tool in the study is one of NOAA's P-3 weather research aircraft, which will be specially outfitted as a state-of-the-art air pollution sampling platform. I flew on the NOAA P-3s in a number of such air pollution field studies during my stint with the hurricane hunters. My most memorable project came in 1989, when we flew over the Arctic Ice Cap to track "Arctic Haze". It was unbelievable to be flying over what should have been one of the cleanest places in the world, only to find visibility reduced to three miles in thick haze, due to pollution blown over the North Pole from industrial sources in Eastern Europe.


Figure 1. Areas of the U.S. in violation of the EPA standards for ozone pollution.

The data collected in the Texas study will be used to develop a variety of computer models needed to understand what is going on, and thereby recommend pollution control strategies. Ozone is not emitted directly, but is formed in a very complicated way from the "precursor" pollutants, Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC). It turns out that this formation process is extremely non-linear--which means that in some cases, reducing emissions of one of the "precursor" pollutants will actually increase ozone. As a result, you really have to understand the problem thoroughly before going to the expense of implementing emission controls of NOx or VOC in an effort to reduce ozone pollution.

Computer modeling efforts to understand pollution are of limited help, because we don't have a very good idea about how much pollution is being emitted. Each year, businesses are required to submit estimates of how much pollution they are emitting. These emission estimates, however, are not very accurate. For example, according to a story published May 7 in the Houston Chronicle, a British Petroleum refinery in Texas City (just south of Houston) reported that it emitted three times more formaldehyde and ammonia in 2004 than in 2003. The increase in emissions at this one plant was so large, that it distorted the data for refineries nationwide, according to the EPA. The Texas City plant accounted for the bulk of a 15 percent increase in emissions in 2004 that drove refinery pollution to its worst level since 2000. The problem is that the company likely underestimated its 2003 emissions. The emission estimates are all theoretical, and are not based on actual measurements of pollutant gases coming out of the stacks.

The article quotes Matt Fraser, an associate professor in civil and environmental engineering at Rice University, who says: "It's incredible that they were that far off. That's a huge increase in formaldehyde. It just shows you how little attention is being paid to getting emissions numbers right. And since all of our air-quality control strategies are based on that data, it makes you wonder." Well, the planners of the TexAQS II Air Quality Field Study are also wondering, which is why there is the necessity of doing this field study. The only sure way to know what's really going up into the air is to go out and measure it, and this summer's study should help the scientists and regulators figure out what the right steps are to control air pollution in one of our most polluted cities.

Unfortunately, the participation of NOAA's P-3 in the Texas study means that only one P-3 will be available for hurricane hunting this hurricane season. This worries me, because the P-3s are the best tool we have for hurricane reconnaissance. The Air Force C-130s do not have the state-of-the-art radar systems like the P-3s carry, nor the new SFMR Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer instrument that can measure surface winds speeds anywhere in a storm. Will participation of the P-3 in this air pollution study save more lives and property than if the aircraft participated in hurricane hunting this Fall? I think that is probably the case, but it is definitely a gamble that I'm uncomfortable with.

Jeff Masters

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261. hurricanechaser
7:42 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
Hey Califonia,

Trying to keep this in smaller readable posts.

Not ony would New Orleans had escaped the catastrophic flooding disaster but with his forecast so far to the EAST, many evacuees who did leave might very well have either chosen to stay or returned home thinking it was going so far EAST for a landfall point between Pass Christian and Gulfport, MS.

Now, just imagine for a second what a far worse catrastrphe it would've been based on what actually did occur considering this real prospect and the mass griodlock that would've occured when these unfortunate residents realized less than 24 hours prior to landfall that STORMTOP is still making such a forecast and it instead keeps moving towards them and we have mass hysteria with no time for tens of thousands more likely causalties under such a scenario.

In Pass Christians case as well as Bay St. Louis and these areas that took the brunt of the storm surge and strongest winds that was incredibly accurately predicted by the NHC 60 hours in advance ALL the way till landfall based on a landfall of the eye at the La./MS. border as opposed to between Pas Christian and Gulfport as predicted by STORMTOP with his 170-180 mph winds.

The fact is that a landfall at Pass Christian, MS. would've spared this area and Bay St. Louis from the massive category five surge and the more than 200 lives lost here and moved it much farther to the EAST consistent with the distance between actual landfall as remarkably forecasted by the NHC and STORMTOPS erroneous eye landfall betwen Pass Christian and Gulfport, MS.

If he had been right, places like Pasagoula, MS. and Mobile, Al. would have experienced xtreme conditions far exceeding what they actually got that was bad enough relative to storm surge.


260. hurricanechaser
7:23 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
Hey Califonia,

The previous post relative to Katrinas weakening and expansion of her windfield ion the process is yet another reason that your suggestion that his 170-180 mph Pass Christian, MS landfall forecast was really not so great.

You try to spin it by saying that Pass Christian did receive a category five surge but that would NOT have materialized if STORMTOP'S forecast had been accurate.

If this had actually occured as he forecasted, here are the life altering differences.

First, we all know that the strongest surge and winds were located about 20-30 miles to the right of the eye at landfall and since the eye ACTUALLY crossed the coastline at the La./MS. border and NOT at Pass Christian, MS. as STORMTOP erroneously forecasted, this area received the brunt of the category five storm surge.

Secondly, the NHC had this forecasted landfall predicted during every update from 10 PM CDT on Friday to landfall with the eye first crossing La. before making its second Gulf coast landfall.

In contrast, STORMTOPS Pass CHristian and Gulfport landfall forecasts did NOT have it making a La. landfall and would've been way off to the EAST of the city of New Orleans which had he actually been right on his forecast, New Orleans would NOT have experienced the catastrophic flooding that claimed over 1200 lives in that city alone.

259. hurricanechaser
7:10 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
Hey Califonia,

I honestly can't believe you are still posting that link trying to suggest STORMTOP did that well on his Katrina forecasts and goes to show that if someone repeatedly presents an argument enough times, others will blindly see it from that flawed perspective in my humble opinion.

In other words, I get slammed for writing my rebuttal that you specifically encouraged that totally disputes your claim that STORMTOP did so well on the Katrina forecast and yet the vocal majority have no problems with him saying he outperformed the NHC and that they were responsible with more than a thousand deaths.

This suggestion stands in complete contrast to the FACT that his forecasts couldn't have been worse in my humble opinion 60 hours to landfall when he got consistently worse in both his track and intensity forecasts that if had been distributed by the NHC could have really meant tens of thousands of lives lost because far too many would've crowded the roads and this gridlock would've meant thousands would have been stranded in harms way than otherwise would've been the case.

Not too mention, I personally thank God that his forecasts were way off for if his 180 plus mph category five would've really materialized, the devastation of the real Katrina would not compare to the one he misforecasted.

Likewise, one needs to also remember that Katrina's weakening had serious consequences as well as it resulted in the extension of wind field pretty dramatically that would not have occurred had she come ashore at the intensity he erroneously projected and thus would have meant less of the widespread coastline having been affected by such a large surge and hurricane force winds.


258. louastu
6:16 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
Well, that was some fun reading.

Ordinarily I hate arguments, but I actually like this one.
257. taco2me61
5:49 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
Wow I had to read a lot just to keep up...Now that is over... I do wish that everybody could get along, but I see that will never happen... We all have difference of opinion and we all get one right (storm wise)... As for Katrina heck I got that one right but does that make me better than anyone else>>>NO WAY<<<

Just My 2 cents worth and it is not even worth that...


Taco:0)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3242
256. ForecasterColby
5:25 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
Ah yes, I was wrong about CO2. Still, 0.5% is the hazardous line, and our current 0.03% levels are wayyyyyyy below that. Even if carbon dioxide were to rise by 1000%, we'd still be well short of it.
255. ForecasterColby
5:21 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
Oh boy ScienceCop, you've just given me quite a treat. Not a whole lot of people give such heavily researched and yet wrong posts ;)

Posted By: ScienceCop at 3:13 AM GMT on May 21, 2006.
A due diligent search for CO2 levels going back 600,000 years is unable to find any global levels higher than today. The historical record is still being searched further back in time, and science is not finished yet. Nothing in 600,000 years supports any claim that CO2 was higher and that life was peachy with higher CO2.


See the graph already posted above.

Are you under the impression that Earth is "cooler" now than 13,000 years ago when ice sheets still covered vast portions of the Northern hemisphere, and wooly mammouths roamed the norther plains? What a strange definition of "cooler" you have.

Ice ages are short-term events, I was referring to average temperature. That was also why I said 'almost'. There have been cooler times, but they usually coincided with mass extinctions. Hmmm....

You are quoting from an advertisement produced by an organization funded by Exxon Oil, Koch Oil and Scaife Oil fortune money. It is pure propaganda with no truthful contents.

I wasn't quoting, if you see above you'll see they phrased it differently. No truthful contents? Let's remove all CO2 from the air, see how long life survives.

Water is an essential of life too, but the chief loss of life from hurricanes is not wind damage but excess water flooding. Anything in excess is deadly -- would you prefer to be crushed to death by ten tons of lead or ten tons of feathers, or does it make any difference which ten tons crushes you to death? Feathers are not light when there are ten tons of them.

This is true. However, I will also call your attention to the fact that nature in general regulates itself. If CO2 levels rise, plants can grow more efficiently, and they change CO2 back to O2. Negative feedback is key to our biosphere. I think that our forest destruction is of much more concern than CO2 emissions - leave her alone, and Nature can repair almost anything we do to it in time.

The organization which produced this television advertisement is known to be involved in felony fraud deceptions of the body politic. Every single one of the chief perpetrators is known to be associated with multiple criminal fraud activities. In some cases the funders come from organized crime families stretching back two, three and four generations.

Known by whom? Enviornmentalists determined to label oil companies as evil? Sources are a good thing.

Scaife's money, as an example comes from family investments in Spindletop that produced Gulf Oil Corporation. The forefather banker Mellon was involved in the mass killing of 2,209 souls at the Johnstown Flood. Scaife became a Rockefeller-in-law by corporate marriage in 1984 when Gulf Oil was merged into Chevron, thereby trading in his Gulf Oil stocks for Chevron Oil stocks.

http://snipurl.com/qqj2


Uhh. You know, I'm descended (distantly, and through a few bastard [as in, illegitimate] children) from British royalty. They killed lots of people. I must be evil too.

Koch Oil has been one of the pollutingest corporations in America, and that goes back a generation to father Fred Koch who co-founded the John Birch Society. It's not hard to find out the story of the Koch Industries: just ask google:

http://snipurl.com/

Results 1 - 100 of about 41,600 for Koch Industries Fined.

http://snipurl.com/qqix

Results 1 - 100 of about 97,400 for Koch Industries Organized Crime.


You get google results for it...I get google results for " is the Antichrist". Something showing up on a google search just means some Joe with a few minutes bothered to write it up, nothing more.

Exxon was born in crime, with a history of frauds that go back to the 1870s with John D. Rockefeller's many illegal actions and creating numerous corporate front operations to conceal the subversion of America he accomplished. Rockefeller was also involved in mass destruction of life with 2,000 souls lost in the Standard Oil War with The Pennsylvania Railroad in 1877. History has been completely whitewashed about the corporate warfare underlying this tragedy. In 1914 Rockefeller sent in his gunmen with four machineguns spraying bullets for four hours into a striker's camp killing men, wives and children in the Ludlow Massacre. Two days later US marines were spraying machineguns in Tampico, Mexico, putting down those uppity people who threatened interference with two of Standard Oil businesses there.

I wasn't able to find anything on the Tampico incident, but Ludlow was the Colorado National Guard - Source.

WHO PAID FOR THIS BRAINWASH AD? Competitive Enterprise Institute.

Competitive Enterprise Institute has received $1,735,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.

Koch Oil Grants to CEI = $666,420. http://www.mediatransparency.org/kochaggregate.php

Scaife Oil Fortune Grants to CEI = $1,800,000. http://www.mediatransparency.org/scaifeaggregate.php

Wholly controlled front operation owned by CEI: Consumer Alert

Consumer Alert has received $70,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.

Funded by Exxon, Amoco, Chevron, Philip Morris, and American Petroleum Institute, Texaco, Texaco Foundation...

CEI spawned Consumer Alert which spawned COOLER HEADS COALITION as a fossil fuel astroturf front operation.

This astroturf group calls global warming science "scare stories" and funds the Web site Globalwarming.org, with a bi-weekly update called "May Cooler Heads Prevail." Consumer Alert's networking project, the National Consumer Coalition, formed the so-called Cooler Heads Coalition in May, "to dispel the myths of global warming." Cooler Heads is run by a vice president from the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a longtime sponsor of the Wise Use movement. Funded by: American Cyanamid, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Chevron, Monsanto, Philip Morris, and other big corporations.[source]


So what? They have every right to do so, whether you agree or not, just as Gore and the rest of the far Left have the right to spread alarm, false though it may be. Is the globe warming? I'd say yes. Have we caused it? Possibly. Have we helped it along? Probably. But with the absurd alarms raised every time some quack does a study, I find it impossible to support most enviornmental groups. If they would go out and tell the TRUTH, I could support their adgenda. They are not. They exaggerate and alarm and manipulate people's fears to push their own adgenda. Maybe their adgenda is a good one, but I will not support, and will adamantly resist, any organization that uses such tactics.
254. Alec
4:44 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
In other words: The force is exponential....
253. Alec
4:43 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
Absolutely right Rich.....The power of the winds actually exponentially increase as you get higher and higher....So 180 is MUCH worse than 135 MPH hurricane!
252. atmosweather
4:41 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
Of course, they were absolutely bang on with intensity and less than 10 miles away with the track for the last 66 hours before landfall!! They did an amazing job. They saved thousands of lives.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
251. Alec
4:38 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
I feel so bad for those people....the NHC must have been up night after night keeping us up to date on Katrina....the praise goes to the NHC!!!
250. atmosweather
12:35 AM EDT on May 21, 2006
LOL very true. I get the chills when reading his prediction for Katrina though. Can't believe how terribly bad that storm really was.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
249. Alec
12:28 AM EDT on May 21, 2006
yes Rich, when you call all of them to the Gulf Coast as doomers repeatedly you're bound to get it right eventually.....
248. atmosweather
12:17 AM EDT on May 21, 2006
LOL the Katrina prediction was extremely funny though. It was so much guessing but it turned out to be scarily close for the detail he predicted her so early (even before she formed!). I will never forget the laughs I had with him on that, but also how scared I still am that he actually guessed right!
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
247. Alec
12:15 AM EDT on May 21, 2006
Stormtop also refrenced me a billion times Rich....ST was a lucky guesser on Katrina...
246. atmosweather
12:13 AM EDT on May 21, 2006
You guys stay up late LOL! I see ST made a welcome appearance LOL!
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
245. Califonia
4:10 AM GMT on May 21, 2006

Posted By: Inyo at 3:16 AM GMT on May 21, 2006.
oh, stormtop!

how can anyone even take him seriously when he refers to himself in third person like that? Who is he, Bob Dole? Stormtop is obviously an egomaniac, and i dont think his (or her) forecasts are better than anyone elses here.. i wouldnt even pay him/her any regard.


Inyo - check out STORMTOP'S Katrina Predictions from last year. It's compelling reading.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
244. Alec
12:11 AM EDT on May 21, 2006
you all are a trip.....ROFL!!!
243. Califonia
4:09 AM GMT on May 21, 2006

Posted By: Inyo at 3:56 AM GMT on May 21, 2006.

haha yeah what a random picture to accidentally post.. luckily it doesnt display properly.


Heheheheh - could have been MUCH worse, Inyo - it could have come from your "personal - private" photo folder. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
242. louastu
4:05 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
TUFL (Tearing Up From Laughing)

The picture is displaying properly for me.
241. Califonia
4:06 AM GMT on May 21, 2006


Posted By: ScienceCop at 3:08 AM GMT on May 21, 2006.
Posted By: ForecasterColby at 10:16 PM GMT on May 19, 2006.
*sigh*

CO2 has been many times higher at previous points in earth's history. Guess what? The planet is still here. Life adapted. And it will again. If you want to talk climate change, we're actually in almost the COOLEST time in Earth's history.

A due diligent search for CO2 levels going back 600,000 years is unable to find any global levels higher than today...


I'm sure some of you guessed this might be coming, in response to the referenced post - heheheheh.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
240. Inyo
3:56 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
haha yeah what a random picture to accidentally post.. luckily it doesnt display properly.
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
239. Alec
11:35 PM EDT on May 20, 2006
talking about me behind his back...LOL He seems more desperate! What's up with obsession w/me?
238. WSI
3:31 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
LOL!

I was like, what the heck is that? LOL.
237. Inyo
3:29 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
oh man that was not what i meant to post.. hahahahahahaha

i mean to post this

Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
236. Inyo
3:16 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
oh, stormtop!

how can anyone even take him seriously when he refers to himself in third person like that? Who is he, Bob Dole? Stormtop is obviously an egomaniac, and i dont think his (or her) forecasts are better than anyone elses here.. i wouldnt even pay him/her any regard.

SOME TIME IN THE NEXT YEAR INYO SAYS A HURRICANE WILL STRIKE SOMEWHERE ON THE ATLANTIC COAST OMG! ALEX STUDY YOUR GEOLOGY AND METEOROLOGY! PEOPLE WILL DIE PROPERTY WIOLL BE DAMAGEED DOOM TO ALL IN THE PATH! ALEX THIS MEANS U! STORM TRACKER INYO IS TRACKING THE HURRICANES VIA WUNDERGROUND DOT COM < CHECK IN HERE FOR UPDATES MONTHLY UPDATES!


on a more weather related note..

what time of year is it again?


Lightning, i would be less likely to associate this storm with global warming than i would the August monsoon we were having last week.. but it certainly is an anomaly.
haha seriously.
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
234. louastu
3:21 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
I read it in about 2 or 3 minutes. It is very interesting.

That is all I will say about it. I wouldn't want to ruin it for you.
233. Alec
11:16 PM EDT on May 20, 2006
dang. Will take a month to read that!LOL
232. ScienceCop
3:08 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
Posted By: ForecasterColby at 10:16 PM GMT on May 19, 2006.
*sigh*

CO2 has been many times higher at previous points in earth's history. Guess what? The planet is still here. Life adapted. And it will again. If you want to talk climate change, we're actually in almost the COOLEST time in Earth's history.


A due diligent search for CO2 levels going back 600,000 years is unable to find any global levels higher than today. The historical record is still being searched further back in time, and science is not finished yet. Nothing in 600,000 years supports any claim that CO2 was higher and that life was peachy with higher CO2.






"If you want to talk climate change, we're actually in almost the COOLEST time in Earth's history."


Are you under the impression that Earth is "cooler" now than 13,000 years ago when ice sheets still covered vast portions of the Northern hemisphere, and wooly mammouths roamed the norther plains? What a strange definition of "cooler" you have.






"CO2 is an essential gas for life. Now some people who can't look at the data say it's going to kill us all. Imagine if people believe them - how many things would be needlessly retricted then?"


You are quoting from an advertisement produced by an organization funded by Exxon Oil, Koch Oil and Scaife Oil fortune money. It is pure propaganda with no truthful contents.

Water is an essential of life too, but the chief loss of life from hurricanes is not wind damage but excess water flooding. Anything in excess is deadly -- would you prefer to be crushed to death by ten tons of lead or ten tons of feathers, or does it make any difference which ten tons crushes you to death? Feathers are not light when there are ten tons of them.

The organization which produced this television advertisement is known to be involved in felony fraud deceptions of the body politic. Every single one of the chief perpetrators is known to be associated with multiple criminal fraud activities. In some cases the funders come from organized crime families stretching back two, three and four generations.

Scaife's money, as an example comes from family investments in Spindletop that produced Gulf Oil Corporation. The forefather banker Mellon was involved in the mass killing of 2,209 souls at the Johnstown Flood. Scaife became a Rockefeller-in-law by corporate marriage in 1984 when Gulf Oil was merged into Chevron, thereby trading in his Gulf Oil stocks for Chevron Oil stocks.

http://snipurl.com/qqj2

Koch Oil has been one of the pollutingest corporations in America, and that goes back a generation to father Fred Koch who co-founded the John Birch Society. It's not hard to find out the story of the Koch Industries: just ask google:

http://snipurl.com/

Results 1 - 100 of about 41,600 for Koch Industries Fined.

http://snipurl.com/qqix

Results 1 - 100 of about 97,400 for Koch Industries Organized Crime.

Exxon was born in crime, with a history of frauds that go back to the 1870s with John D. Rockefeller's many illegal actions and creating numerous corporate front operations to conceal the subversion of America he accomplished. Rockefeller was also involved in mass destruction of life with 2,000 souls lost in the Standard Oil War with The Pennsylvania Railroad in 1877. History has been completely whitewashed about the corporate warfare underlying this tragedy. In 1914 Rockefeller sent in his gunmen with four machineguns spraying bullets for four hours into a striker's camp killing men, wives and children in the Ludlow Massacre. Two days later US marines were spraying machineguns in Tampico, Mexico, putting down those uppity people who threatened interference with two of Standard Oil businesses there.

WHO PAID FOR THIS BRAINWASH AD? Competitive Enterprise Institute.

Competitive Enterprise Institute has received $1,735,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.

Koch Oil Grants to CEI = $666,420. http://www.mediatransparency.org/kochaggregate.php

Scaife Oil Fortune Grants to CEI = $1,800,000. http://www.mediatransparency.org/scaifeaggregate.php

Wholly controlled front operation owned by CEI: Consumer Alert

Consumer Alert has received $70,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.

Funded by Exxon, Amoco, Chevron, Philip Morris, and American Petroleum Institute, Texaco, Texaco Foundation...

CEI spawned Consumer Alert which spawned COOLER HEADS COALITION as a fossil fuel astroturf front operation.

This astroturf group calls global warming science "scare stories" and funds the Web site Globalwarming.org, with a bi-weekly update called "May Cooler Heads Prevail." Consumer Alert's networking project, the National Consumer Coalition, formed the so-called Cooler Heads Coalition in May, "to dispel the myths of global warming." Cooler Heads is run by a vice president from the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a longtime sponsor of the Wise Use movement. Funded by: American Cyanamid, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Chevron, Monsanto, Philip Morris, and other big corporations.[source]

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
231. Alec
11:04 PM EDT on May 20, 2006
No Skypony....It's mine!!!!!!!!!!LOLOLOL
230. Skyepony (Mod)
2:47 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
the world report for April on NOAA's rap up was noteworthy~
Heavy rain events and associated flooding occurred throughout April in Yemen, Colombia, Eastern Europe, northeastern Australia, Indonesia and northern Argentina. Flooding and landslides caused significant loss of life and property damage in many of these locations. Precipitation estimates for northwestern Colombia from March 1 to April 16 exceeded 27 inches (700 mm). In Eastern Europe in mid-April, the Danube River reached its highest level in 111 years. Cyclone Monica became the strongest tropical cyclone of 2006. It reached Category 5 on the Australian scale, with 135 knots (155 mph) sustained winds before weakening as it crossed over northeastern Australia. The tropical cyclone season in the Australian region has been near average with the development of 12 storms, two more than average. Although final assessments of tropical cyclone strength are continuing, it is thought that 25 percent of these storms reached Category 5 strength on the Australian scale.

I'm with StormTop on the end of this coming week...If we have a TS on friday that teeshirt is mine. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
229. Alec
10:24 PM EDT on May 20, 2006
Hey WSI, looks like the Gulf temps will start rising at a quicker rate as we're into this summer regime...
228. Alec
10:23 PM EDT on May 20, 2006
Hey David, another handle name? How about "TheLoneyLoopCurrent"...lol
227. WSI
2:23 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
Keep your ID, you have switched enough times.

You didn't even say what I quoted, there should have been no mix up.
224. Alec
10:19 PM EDT on May 20, 2006
sorry bloggers(lurkers as well) this argument stops now..............I was just trying to help ST understand a few things...Ill stop responding to his rudeness..
223. WSI
2:19 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
SuperTyphoon, I wasn't even talking to you. I was talking to StormTop.

You didn't even say what I quoted. StormTop did. Geez.
222. louastu
2:18 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
David,

I think he was referring to this comment.

Posted By: STORMTOP at 1:57 AM GMT on May 21, 2006.
alex you are the one that always get things wrong and texas to the fla panhandale is not the northern gulf coast its the nw ne and central alex...you need to study a little more if you are going to be a meteoroligists...
221. RL3AO
9:16 PM CDT on May 20, 2006
You can see the climological formation probabilty for the Carribean is rising.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
219. Alec
10:12 PM EDT on May 20, 2006
ST, Lefty used computer models last yr a bunch...EVERYONE uses them but you seem to ONLY pick me out and say how wrong I am....I have never SOLEY used computer models but use the atmospheric conditions and satellites(for short term forecasting)....
217. louastu
2:11 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
I am sorry. I missed that somehow.

I am doing fine.

Have you checked my blog yet?
216. STORMTOP
2:10 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
well u are the one that swears on computers and thats enough said about that..alex i dont use computers to forecast if i did i wouldnt know about the trough in the rockies on thursday...capiche
214. Alec
10:08 PM EDT on May 20, 2006
Ok...Ill go "study my computers" that you forbid me from using last yr......LOL
213. STORMTOP
2:04 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
alex im talking in the next 96 hours i know for a fact the high will not be there and the gulf will warm up a few more degrees...the shear will certainly bre gone and the trough coming down from the rockies that the computers have not even latched on to yet will have a big influence where this thing goes...alex go study your computers...just pay close attention by mid week...
212. louastu
2:05 AM GMT on May 21, 2006
Posted By: Alec at 10:00 PM EDT on May 20, 2006.
Hey louastu, yes but from the above links I posted above, the Gulf is not sufficient enough to even sustain a hurricane all the way to Texas or the FL panhandle like ST referenced...

I think the water is warmer in the GOM than it was where Vince formed last year.
211. Alec
10:02 PM EDT on May 20, 2006
Posted By: STORMTOP at 10:02 PM EDT on May 20, 2006.
alex you are the one that always get things wrong and texas to the fla panhandale is not the northern gulf coast its the nw ne and central alex...you need to study a little more if you are going to be a meteoroligists

ST, first of all thats a lie....If i get everything wrong then I guess last yr when I said Emily would hit Mexico was a lie....yeah right!......Dont feel the urge to imply to everyone that im stupid.....be a little more RESPECTFUL...and stop referencing me in most of your posts...

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.