Northeast flooding continues; Hong Hong breathing easier

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:12 PM GMT on May 16, 2006

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Major flooding continues across New Hampshire, southwest Maine, and northeast Massachussetts today, where an additional 1-3 inches of rain has fallen in the past day and another inch is expected today. The culprit "cut off low"--a large low pressure system that got separated from the jet stream--is drifting slowly northeastward, and is expected to leave the area tonight, bringing an end to the heavy rains and the worst of the flooding. However, an active jet stream pattern over the next seven days will continue to bring occasional rain to the area, and area rivers--which are generally five to eight feet above flood stage--will be slow to fall. By next Tuesday, the GFS model is indicating that a more summer-like weather pattern may emerge, with the jet stream retreating northwards and warmer, dryer air moving in.


Figure 1. Rainfall amounts for New England estimated by radar, ending at 10am EDT Monday May 16.

Typhoon Chanchu
The season's first typhoon has continued to weaken, and was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph sustained winds at 8am EDT this morning. Chanchu (which means "pearl" in Chinese), is expected to continue to weaken over the next day due to dry air, cooler ocean temperatures in its path, and interaction with land. The typhoon is expected to spare Hong Kong a direct hit, and come ashore over the Guangdong province on China's eastern coast on Wednesday as a Category 2 storm. This is a far cry from last Friday's intensity forecast, which projected that Chanchu would strike as a Category 5 supertyphoon! Chanchu is yet another example of our poor ability to make accurate long-range hurricane intensity forecasts.

Chanchu delivered a serious blow to the Philippines over the weekend, killing at least 37 and leaving thousands homeless.


Figure 2. Typhoon Chanchu at 5:30 am EDT Tuesday, with 125 mph sustained winds.

My next blog will be Wednesday, when I'll talk more about air pollution, plus the Northeast flooding and Typhoon Chanchu.

Jeff Masters

Flooding of the North River in Lee NH (SiriusleeNH)
Normally this river is about 10 feet below the bridge. The pavement across the bridge is about half eroded, the bridge will probably need replacing.
Flooding of the North River in Lee NH
Serious Flooding in Chester (FromChester)
This was taken along Hanson Rd in Chester near the Raymond line. Who knows how deep it is here, but I'm assuming no one will be driving through here for awhile.
Serious Flooding in Chester

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83. weatherguy03
1:34 PM EDT on May 16, 2006
Hey Levi, at least you're not his neighbor!..LOL
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
82. weatherguy03
1:32 PM EDT on May 16, 2006
Good advice SJ. Yes, I like to tease him alot, but he does bring some insight, just like everyone else on here.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
81. StormJunkie
5:14 PM GMT on May 16, 2006
Levi. I know how anoying ST can be. I was one of the ones arguing with him last. Trust me on this one, don't let him bother you. Read what he has to say, form your opinion, argue it with the facts. That is it. Don't get in to his ego cause you can't change it. Don't get in to his caps thing, cause you can't change it. Don't get in to his attitude, cause you can't change it. Basically use him. Learn what you can from him and let the rest of the crap fall by the wayside.

Alright ya'll, I have some errands to run, but I will be back later to check in. Please continue to stop by StormJunkie.com. leave any feedback you have in my blog. Please also leave any links to good info, articles, and sites in my blog. Ya'll have been a great help so far.

Thanks ya'll
SJ
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80. RL3AO
12:14 PM CDT on May 16, 2006
So, uh ST, how many interviews did you get on CNN to warn people about Katrina? I must have missed them.
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79. Levi32
9:14 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
I am leaving for breakfast now. I will be back later today. See you all later!
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78. Levi32
9:12 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
BYE BYE STORMTOP I GUESS YOU DON'T HAVE TIME TO TALK TO LESS KNOWLEGABLE PEOPLE THEN YOURSELF. I HOPE YOU DON'T COME BACK. QUIT WITH THE CAPS LOCK OR I WILL DO IT TOO.
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77. RL3AO
12:12 PM CDT on May 16, 2006
I'm preying for a depression this week, or in August, just not in 2 weeks.
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76. Levi32
9:10 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
SJ I know stormtop knows a lot I didn't say he doesn't. He can and will be right sometimes like everyone else. But I don't like the way he is even if he won't change.
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75. STORMTOP
5:10 PM GMT on May 16, 2006
HASTA LA VISTA I DONT HAVE TIME TO ARGUE LEVI DO WHAT YOU WANT.ILL BE BACK WHEN SOMETHING STARTS TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 2 WEEKS....HAVE A GREAT DAY ALL AND DONT BICKER...
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74. Levi32
9:07 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
Stormtop I do look at weather info around the storm are you kidding? And the computers provide some insite. Also that surface forecast was from the NHC so it is worth noting.

You did IT again you said "IT WONT AS LONG AS IM HERE I CAN ASSURE YOU OF THAT". See? This is what I am talking about. You are making it look as though you are the best and only one that can warn people in time and properly. If anything I am just keeping people informed about the tropical disturbances in the Caribbean! I am not saying a hurricane is going to hit Florida or anything like that! All I am doing is looking at the areas of disturbed weather and telling people about them so they know what is going on.
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73. StormJunkie
5:05 PM GMT on May 16, 2006
StormTop is the way he is and will not change. You have to learn to accept the fact that he does have a decent knowledge of the tropics and that he will be right sometimes.

SJ
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72. weatherguy03
1:07 PM EDT on May 16, 2006
Great! ST will save us!! I feel better now!..LOL
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
71. Levi32
9:05 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
RL3AO you wouldn't have wanted to be around to see all the fights, cussing, and bannings. It was horrible. If push comes to shove this season, I will have all the good people come to my blog and ban the bad ones so they are left by themselves in Dr. Master's blog.
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69. STORMTOP
5:01 PM GMT on May 16, 2006
levi its not the time to argue we have to save as many lives this year as we can and warn residents alot earlier so what hAPPENED LAST YEAR WITH KATRINA WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN...IT WONT AS LONG AS IM HERE I CAN ASSURE YOU OF THAT...STOP LISTENING TO THOSE COMPUTERS THEY HAVE LOST IT..THERE ARE TO MANY WEATHER CHANGES THAT ARE HAPPENING RIGHT NOW..RELY ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IR PICS IN MOTION AND THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT ARE PRESENT AROUND THE STORM...
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67. Levi32
9:05 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
See, I drove him off lol. He's gone not to worry.
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66. RL3AO
12:04 PM CDT on May 16, 2006
I didn't find this site until December, but by the sound of it, I wish I would've been here for all of last season.
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65. Levi32
9:02 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
What you guys have never yelled at STORMTOP before?
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64. RL3AO
12:01 PM CDT on May 16, 2006
This is getting fun to read.
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63. Levi32
9:00 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
Ok I can live with that but don't force your opinions and forecasts on us. Don't act like you are always right ok? It is very annoying!
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62. Levi32
8:57 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
Stormtop you are not the most knowledgeable person on this blog if you think you are. You think we are all lower than you. Well we aren't and you quit acting like you are the top gun and Mr. knowitall and we are all just little amateurs that don't know anything!
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61. STORMTOP
4:57 PM GMT on May 16, 2006
levi i will unless conditions warrant then i will assert myself to take over with my weather advisories...you guys can carry on nothing to worry about until 10 days then we have to be on our toes...StormTop
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60. weatherguy03
12:59 PM EDT on May 16, 2006
Of course, we all want to see something develop. If we said we didnt, we wouldnt be human Franck!..LOL
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
59. weatherguy03
12:58 PM EDT on May 16, 2006
He has been proven wrong many times, and will be again this year..LOL

You tell 'em Levi!!
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
58. franck
4:58 PM GMT on May 16, 2006
Just kidding I guess.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
57. franck
4:51 PM GMT on May 16, 2006
I'm perplexed. I want Stormtop to be wrong so badly I could spit, but I'd be wanting a hurricane, which brings death and destruction. And I really don't want to see people miserable and harmed. But I just want Stormtop to be proven wrong so bad. C'mooonnnn hurricane!!!
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
56. RL3AO
11:54 AM CDT on May 16, 2006
It makes sense when you think about it. Even though the EPac normally has more systems than the Atlantic, the EPac doesn't has as much area for rapid development as the Atlantic.
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55. Levi32
8:54 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
You know what STORMTOP, I can go on about a small curly q in the Caribbean if I want to! Let us be! I don't care if it won't form!!! I don't care if the shear is high! I don't care if the SSTs are too low! Just let us talk about things even if they are not going to develop. And quit with your stupid weather service. You have your opinion and I have mine. Keep your "professional" bulletins to yourself!
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53. weatherguy03
12:50 PM EDT on May 16, 2006
Who's everyone?..LOL
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
52. franck
4:47 PM GMT on May 16, 2006
The Colorado State site has some pretty good weather graphics. Some of it is not accessible, but most of the western hemisphere stuff is viewable.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
51. weatherguy03
12:49 PM EDT on May 16, 2006
OMG. This is the first time I have ever agreed with ST!..LOL
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
50. RL3AO
11:48 AM CDT on May 16, 2006
Yeah ST, everyone's panicking on here, I'm glad you calmed us down. ;)
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49. RL3AO
11:46 AM CDT on May 16, 2006
Look at the water temp in the pacific in phase 3 of this diagram!
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48. STORMTOP
4:37 PM GMT on May 16, 2006
once again im glad i came on here...look people the rain you are getting in florida is once again caused by a cold low way up in the atmosphere..the tail end in the caribbean will move up the front across florida and cause SOUTH FLORIDA to have rains for several days which they desperately need..this is truly a GOD send and there is no way this low could become tropical in nature..this is a real test for you guys because in just 10 days i expect the tropics to really heat up so stay on your toes and please do not frighten anyone about this gulf system...thats all it is rain rain and more rain..i repeat people there is no chance of tropical activity for the next 10 days the sheer is just to high and the temps are maginal...THIS HAS BEEN A BULLETIN BY STORMTOPS HURRICANE WARNING OFFICE...001146..........
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46. Levi32
4:39 PM GMT on May 16, 2006
So what do you think about that curly Q in the Caribbean? If the NHC keeps it there for 3 days, then it will encounter low shear by then, and it already has convection.
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45. Levi32
4:38 PM GMT on May 16, 2006
Yes they did. Directories are very handy for that type of thing.
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43. Levi32
8:33 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
The GOES directory also had all the other enhancements for the satellite images that the normal SSD page didn't have.
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42. Levi32
8:30 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
I can't get to your local NWS page either. I guess they have a problem right now.

Sometimes the content is forbidden, but it is 50-50 you will find some directory you can access. I find it quite useful. Those directories can usually supply you with stuff that wasn't on the main site. For example, in the SSD GOES Directory I just gave you, there are more than 4-5 new floaters that we didn't know about until the new SSD page came out a few days ago. That directory had those other floaters all the time but we didn't know about them.
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41. Levi32
8:29 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
Also you must take sections away from the url starting from the very end of the url and working towards the beginning.
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39. Levi32
8:26 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
For example this directory. It has no real ending to the url. Just http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/

When you take away sections of an url to find a directory, the sections are the portions of the url in between the slashes.
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38. RL3AO
11:25 AM CDT on May 16, 2006
Looks like you've figured it out, but incase someone else wants to know how to post an image.

TO INSERT AN IMAGE, YOU NEED THE IMAGE URL. TO GET THE IMAGE URL:
* RIGHT CLICK ON THE IMAGE
* SELECT PROPERTIES
* COPY THE URL


To insert the image, type this and fill in the url, leaving the quotations.



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37. Levi32
8:22 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
Yes Michael that window did come up that is how I used it. Here is how you find website directories:

Take your url, in this case, "http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/RadarImg/southeast.gif"

Take one section of the url away from the end of it. The first step for this url is this:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/RadarImg/"

Here I took away the "southeast.gif" part of the url. The url I am left with in this case is a directory. Sometimes you can get a whole bunch of directories by taking away more parts of the url. Directories are usually the urls that don't end in "html", "htp", "php" or things like that.
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36. Levi32
8:19 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
Have any of you noticed the curly thing at the tail end of the Florida cold front? It is in the middle of the Caribbean and it is barely warm core. The NHC seems to keep it in the Caribbean for the next 3 days. I don't know if it will get picked up north by the front though. Here is a sat shot of it.

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34. Levi32
8:18 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006
There I know how to do it now. Thanks Michael.
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33. Levi32
8:17 AM AKDT on May 16, 2006


That should work.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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