Major severe weather outbreak possible today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on May 10, 2006

Share this Blog
0
+

A relative lull in the Spring severe weather season is over, as killer tornadoes have once again struck the southern U.S. At least three people were killed and ten injured last night when a tornado swept through Winchester and Anna, Texas, an area about 45 miles northeast of Dallas. The tornado struck at about 10:30 pm local time, and was part of an intense squall line that you can see in this radar animation. Tornadoes have also touched down in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, and Alabama in the past 24 hours, as you can see from our Storm Report Map.


Figure 1. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a moderate risk of a major severe weather outbreak today across the lower Misssissippi Valley and central Gulf states, and northward across portions of the Tennessee Valley.

The significant severe weather event is expected to continue today across the lower Misssissippi Valley and central Gulf states, and northward across portions of the Tennessee Valley today. Strong tornadoes of up to F3 intensity, plus thunderstorms with damaging winds and very large hail are possible prior to the passage of a strong cold front today across the region. Flooding is also a concern in Missouri and Arkansas, where drought had been a major concern until recently.

My next blog will be Thursday.
Jeff Masters

AWESOME (stormchazertex)
This is a picture of a storm that is currently producing a large tornado over Northern Collin County in N. Central Texas. So far we know that the tornado that this storm produced has taken the lives of 3 people. SEE my other series of pic from May 10th entitled AFTERMATH for storm damage pictures.
Visitor Map
Create your own visitor map!
AWESOME
Flash Flooding Downtown Conway (HeathenWXHound)
Taken from my apartment balcony. We had severe flash flooding after 2 inches of rain in less than an hour.
Flash Flooding Downtown Conway

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 71 - 21

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

71. TampaSteve
4:39 PM GMT on May 11, 2006
Holy supercells, Batman!
70. sayhuh
2:24 PM GMT on May 11, 2006
Wonder if you could file a claim for insurance for bat damage? LOL
69. sayhuh
2:12 PM GMT on May 11, 2006
Here is one of the coolest and funniest things I have seen in awhile...

Link
68. TampaSteve
1:59 PM GMT on May 11, 2006
Skyepony wrote:

"They said it once happened with 3 people that were handgliding I think. Well they hit the storm & were forced to bail their aircraft, deploying their parashoots on the way down. They didn't go down through, the storm sucked them up & began covering their body's with ice, making them human hail. Somehow one survived, the other two died, frozen, covered in ice."

Happened to some German glider pilots back in the 1930s. Two gliders got caught up in a thunderstorm and the pilots had to bail out. One of them made it. The other was sucked into the powerful updraft in the center of the storm and covered with heavy layers of ice. He became a human hailstone and fell 7 miles to his death. What a crappy way to die.
67. RL3AO
12:57 PM GMT on May 11, 2006
Still at 75 kts, JWTC is changing the track every advisory. It's got some decent covection now.

66. StormJunkie
10:53 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
Good morning all. Still looking for good storm video and links for the site. Ya'll stop by and leave any feedback you have in my blog. I am continuing to update the site daily withmore links. Added several new model links last night.

Stormjunkie.com

Shear has slacked off a little, but still too high for anything to form right now. Should not be too long before the shear dies down a little more.

Thanks
SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
65. franck
5:36 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
LuckyTacoBlizzard...read your post seven times. Now when I close my eyes, they dart around and tickle my eyelids, and I can't get it to stop.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
64. franck
5:33 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
That's one hailacious story Skyepony!!
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
63. Skyepony (Mod)
3:11 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
I see we are up to 13 tornado reports now. One hit a meat packing plant.

Good bit of wind ~ the top of a water tower blew off, trees fell & power failed.

Lotta hail~ the softball is huge & nothing soft about it... Back to that PBS show lastnight & their clip on heavy hail. They showed how frogs, insects, fish, baby turtles were sucked up & huge hail would form around them. With the creatures or objects frozen in the center. They said it once happened with 3 people that were handgliding I think. Well they hit the storm & were forced to bail their aircraft, deploying their parashoots on the way down. They didn't go down through, the storm sucked them up & began covering their body's with ice, making them human hail. Somehow one survived, the other two died, frozen, covered in ice.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36105
61. RL3AO
2:30 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
Heh - now THIS is cold-core.

Watch out Antartica!!!
60. TheLuckyTacoBlizzard
2:16 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
where is that map tell you that like is it for us like FL and is it like for MX
58. ForecasterColby
2:03 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
Heh - now THIS is cold-core.

Link
57. ForecasterColby
1:56 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
Chanchu definetly isn't too healthy ATM. But consider that the shear over it is being produced by an anticyclone - that Chanchu is going to move under. Remember what happens then?
56. Levi32
1:36 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
It is definately dry air, just look at the break off of convection north of the storm until the outside band. If that doesn't look like dry air intrusion, I don't know what does.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
55. Levi32
1:34 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
This is just my opinion Michael, but this just doesn't look like a sheared storm to me.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
54. Levi32
1:33 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
Dry air might be the problem. The microwave shows almost no solid convection to the NW of the center. It looks like a pocket of dry air has smashed the NW side of the storm. That might make some sense when you look at this water vapor image. There is an area of fairly dry air between the large outside spiral band and the center.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
52. Levi32
1:29 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
No David I will update tomorrow if I get time.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
51. Levi32
1:28 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
Latest microwave image just in:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
50. TheLuckyTacoBlizzard
1:28 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
: Levi32 have you update your blog yet?
49. Levi32
1:27 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
Myles, think of it this way. Lets assume that Chanchu is only a tropical storm after all. In that case, this pattern of convection is quite normal and actually shows intensification. That convection to the SSE should wrap around the center with time as the storm strengthens.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
48. Levi32
1:25 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
And look at the <5 knots of shear northwest of the Philippines. If that area hold its location, then Chanchu will walk right into it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
47. HurricaneMyles
1:24 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
Typo, I meant are being blown to the S-SE.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
46. Levi32
1:23 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
By the way, about the GFS forecasting tropical storms in Florida, the last three runs all have 2 or 3 storms in the western Caribbean and gulf, at roughly the same time and place. The only weird part is that at the same time that the first 2 form and move into Florida, the GFS forecasts 30-40 knots of shear above them. ??

Models do funny things some times. However, the GFS is still consistently forecasting low shear to develop over the entire Caribbean and parts of the Atlantic. Tropical waves are forecast to enter that area, so the model might not be far wrong.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
44. HurricaneMyles
1:21 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
It does show that it is from the NE, however, it appears to me that much off the upper level clouds are being blown to the S-SW.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
43. Levi32
1:18 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
Well lets take a look at the shear then. There is only 10 knots of it over Chanchu, and it is from the NE, not the NNW.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
42. HurricaneMyles
1:12 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
It does look like a pretty healthy tropical storm, but it also looks like it is fighting off some shear from the north-northwest.

New Vis Pic
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
41. Levi32
1:07 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
Nope, it sure doesn't, but it looks like a very healthy and intensifying tropical storm.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
39. RL3AO
1:00 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
JTWC has slowed Chanchu down and brought it further north. Watch out Hong Kong!



38. SMU88
12:56 AM GMT on May 11, 2006
I was looking at the long range GFS models that Skepony provided and it sure shows South Florida getting smacked by several storms. I know that longe range models are usually wrong...but still very interesting! anyone else agree?
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 29
37. TheLuckyTacoBlizzard
11:51 PM GMT on May 10, 2006
taco2me61 mail for you
36. RL3AO
11:47 PM GMT on May 10, 2006
34. swatkins
11:43 PM GMT on May 10, 2006
Could someone point me to a good link that would explain the "Hook" that is frequently mention when people "see" a tornado on radar.

Thanks
33. taco2me61
11:43 PM GMT on May 10, 2006
The Lucky Taco Blizzard,

Is that You David??? :0) and you like me that much to use me in you handle>>>Wow I like it...:0)


Taco
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3173
31. NONAME4
11:13 PM GMT on May 10, 2006
The eastern has a 1008Mb tropical low right now. It around 10N 88W
30. Zaphod
11:09 PM GMT on May 10, 2006
Wow, softball size hail!

Having never seen such, I gotta ask -- is it ice-hard like some of the the little hail I've seen, or more like a slush-ball?

If the former, I would think that would be lethal, not to mention capable of smashing windshields and pounding cars and house roofs to pieces.
Zap
Member Since: October 5, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 3239
28. Skyepony (Mod)
10:24 PM GMT on May 10, 2006
today's hail record so far~ 2 3/4" ~2 S DELHI RICHLAND LA BASEBALL SIZE HAIL SOUTH OF DELHI, LA (JAN)

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36105
26. ForecasterColby
9:38 PM GMT on May 10, 2006
We now have Typhoon Chanchu in the WPAC. 75kt/967mb says JTWC...my question is, why? Looks like maybe 45-50kt to me on the IR, and no more than ~ 65 on the microwave. Oh well.

25. rxse7en
8:07 PM GMT on May 10, 2006
So strange watching the tropical systems moving eastward on the models this time of year.
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
24. Skyepony (Mod)
7:22 PM GMT on May 10, 2006
Whirlwind~ a few days ago the long outlook gfs had like a TS hitting central fl from the west side. So far out you know it couldn't come true & with the fires in the muck here it would be too good to be true.

Just checked it out, it's back, toward the end of the forecast range looking like a raggid TD, yesterday it wasn't there, so it still lacks consistancy
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36105
22. rxse7en
7:18 PM GMT on May 10, 2006
Looks like Cape Verde's getting ready to start spewing out some tropical waves, eh?

Also, check this out:
http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=GFS&domain=G5

Looks like something forming on May 12th (12th hour)

B
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
21. Skyepony (Mod)
7:15 PM GMT on May 10, 2006
wind & hail so far~
COAHOMA MS - TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY (MEG)

TATE MS ~ 1" hail

Ya'll see the hail storm on Violent Planet on PBS lastnight?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36105

Viewing: 71 - 21

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.