What is Emily doing?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:07 PM GMT on July 18, 2005

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Posted: 8:50pm EDT Tue July 19
============================
OK, I give up trying to predict what Emily is going to do, I'm just going to watch. Brownsville 248 nm mile range radar shows that Emily has essentially stalled the past 75 minutes. The 7:18pm recon flight showed that the central pressure had risen 6 mb to 948 mb, and saw no increase in flight level winds. With the storm sitting in place, lots of cold water is going to upwell beneath her and make it difficult to intensify further. In fact, the eye appears less distinct than two hours ago, and is filling with clouds. However, a very impressive circular Cirrus Dense Overcast has formed over the hurricane, and the overall banding and outflow still look impressive. Once the hurricane starts moving again away from its cold pool it kicked up underneath itself, it could start intensifying again. What's next, Emily??

As many of you noticed, we've had some problems with my blog disappearing today. The software for this is still in its experimental stages, and has been put to the test today! It seems we sometimes have problems when multiple comments are posted simultaneously. Bear with us, we'll try to keep things working while we craft a permanent fix. Expect to see many improvements in the blog interface over the next few weeks, the code is still under heavy development.

Dr. Jeff Masters

Posted: 4:50pm EDT Tue July 19
============================
I should know better than to doubt this hurricane's abilty to bounce back from adversity! Emily's pressure has dropped 13 mb the past 3 1/2 hours, and is now a 959 mb storm. The winds are still at 95 mph or so, and will take a few hours for Emily to adjust to the new pressure. The satellite presentation and pressure both point towards a Category 3 hurricane, and I imagine the surface winds will be close to 115 mph (minimal Category 3 status) by this evening. The track is doing some major wobbles as the storm reorganizes and deepens, but appears to have a more westward bend. The Hurricane Center is doing the proper conservative thing by advertising a continued WNW motion toward the Texas/Mexico border until the westward turn becomes more obvious.

The hurricane is impressive to watch on the Brownsville 248 nm mile range radar.

Jeff Masters

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261. Jedkins
2:33 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
well I going to workout for a while and git some things done,well by now y'all
260. Jedkins
2:32 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
but all of our predictions could be helpful too people cuase if theres enough if one of is way off another could be very close or right on target.
259. Jedkins
2:30 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
i actually did predict a landfall about 75-100 miles south of brownsville yesterday morining and look,I was pretty darn good this time but I WILL NOT BRAG,because Icould just as easily gotten it wrong and I said windspeed would be 120 mph very close considering windspeed is so hard to predict,well I dought i will be that accurate with the next storm,but we'll see,purty darn good for my age y'all.
258. oriondarkwood
2:15 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
EZMonster,

Also congrats on your close prediction. But its still a long season to go. We are doing good, but I like to see how our predictions hold out for a entire season. Personally mine have been slipping so I think I may miss the first one. Maybe we can set up a prediction contest (no money just props and bragging rights) with rules and such.
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
257. oriondarkwood
2:12 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
EZMonster,

No but I assume it will be alot since the mountians will rip all the power and rain out of Emily. Unless I am very mistaken I don't think thier is going to be anything of Emily past the next couple of days (if that). But they (NWS) are forecasting 15 inches for the mountian regions (read as heavy flooding and mudslides). SE Texas will get a few inches but according the NWS they are in a bit of a dry spell so they should be able to handle it (but still will be flooding because of the rate it will be coming down)
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
256. EZMonster
2:07 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
Pretty close too on the preds. Any word on flooding?

Posted By: rodrigo0 at 9:06 AM GMT on July 18, 2005.
Next stop: Bahia Algodones, Tamalipas on the wed morning.
Report As: Obscene | Spam

Posted By: EZMonster at 9:41 AM GMT on July 18, 2005.
I'm thinking about the same, maybe just slightly north of that, but still pretty well south of Matamoros. A strong CAT3 or, if it slows a bit, weak CAT4 (oxymoron) at next landfall. She is really booking.


255. Rhindle
1:48 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
Landfall has occured and oriondarkwood's prediction 3 days ago was pretty good that's all. Now on to predicting what she will do after landfall! Still a few more chapters to go in this story..
254. fredwx
1:41 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
From the NWS Tropical Discussion
Caribbean...
cut-off upper low in the W Caribbean W of Jamaica near 19n81w is interacting with a tropical wave producing a large area of convection/shower activity N of 16n between 61w-72w. The upper low has enough dry air to produce fairly benign weather over the central Caribbean N of 17n from 74w-83w including Jamaica and parts of Cuba. Farther SW...a tropical squall line with scattered/numerous strong convection continues to expand now covering the area SW of line from Colombia near 11n74w to N of Honduras near 18n86w including Panama and Costa Rica. Deep
tropical moisture will remain established over this area to maintain scattered convection for remainder of the work week.
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
253. oriondarkwood
1:41 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
Rhindle,

Thanks

___________________________________

Stormtop,

If you are directing your last message at me, I am quite aware the threat is far from over. I was merely stating my prediction vs actual on locations where the eye of the hurricane was hitting. I know that NE Mex/SE TX is still far from being out of the woods on this one
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
252. outrocket
1:38 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
thanks fredwx
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11011
251. fredwx
1:36 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
From the Tropical Weather Outlook
....A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean is producing cloudiness and showers over Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the Leeward Islands. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation... but could become slightly more favorable during the next day or two as this system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
250. STORMTOP
1:35 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
you are not done with emily yet trust me she still is a threat...by no means is this over....
249. Rhindle
1:33 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
Nice job oriondarkwood.
248. STORMTOP
1:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
i see a slow movement to the west right now...
247. outrocket
1:28 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
still having trouble with the NHC site,I can open it now,but the page dont seem to be updated....wonder how the area SE of bahama's is doing and the area in SW carib.??
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11011
246. STORMTOP
1:18 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
i hope she dont do the loop those mountains and that weak ridge tell the story right now...
245. STORMTOP
1:15 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
goodmorning guys and gals...i just updated the browns radar and emilys sw eyewall is still off shore..im showing very little movement right now...they are going to have real trouble getting this puppy on shore...i wont feel good until its 100 miles inland...
244. oriondarkwood
1:05 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
Prediction

Posted By: oriondarkwood at 2:02 PM EDT on July 17, 2005.

Paraphased
"Emily will slam into Mexico around Tampico as a cat2 storm"

Actual

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM EAST OF SAN FERNANDO
MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

I was off by about 20 MPH on power and it hit roughly 80 - 120 miles north of where I said. Not my best but still close enough I say it was a good prediction. Seems I am 3 for 3 so far this season ie:

1 - getting Dennis within 20 miles
2 - getting the first hit of Emily within 60 miles
3 - getting the second hit of Emily within 80 miles

Specially since NOAA has a 200 mile cone of error if I am not mistaken
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
243. outrocket
1:01 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
correct me if I'm wrong..but the soil there dont hold much water..almost an arid climate...so when it rains like it has...it floods big time and fast..?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11011
242. EmmyRose
12:55 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
Thanks Outrocket - they do need the water down that way
I can't open the NHC either
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
241. outrocket
12:54 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
the latest is..the rio grande is now the worlds longest water slide..
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11011
240. EmmyRose
12:50 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
Jedkins I dont know if it was that violent - after all it's an Aggie buoy LOL
What's the lastest?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
239. fredwx
12:45 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
With 125mph winds the Max waves could be as high as 38ft!
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
238. outrocket
12:41 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
they were having 26 ft seas north of the storm...see if you can find out the station number on the bouy...
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11011
237. fredwx
12:39 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
Once the eye moves inland the SE-S wind will pile up water within the Bay
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
236. Jedkins
12:39 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
lol floated up on the beach? that hurricane must have been very violent over open water is also notably closer then before when i went to bed moving on shore now.
235. outrocket
12:38 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
I know Texas A&Ms bouy stopped reporting at 9pm cdt last night....wonder if its that one...LOL
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11011
234. SEFL
12:36 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
one of the NWS data bouys has floated up to South Padre Island
233. outrocket
12:35 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
NHC server back up...Fredwx...if the rain keeps up we may have 8 seas instead of 7...newest addition Laguna Madre Sea..
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11011
232. fredwx
12:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
I wonder how exposed is the Bay to the north? I think it's called Laguna Madre. Could be significant flooding there.
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
231. deb1
12:30 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
How much rain is being dumped where it came ashore? I see Brownsville has 59mph winds but only light rain, according to their current weather update.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2
230. outrocket
12:29 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
thats normal...they always hook when 1/2 the eyewall slows down due to friction of land...the other 1/2 hooks around...
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11011
229. deb1
12:27 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
Rodrigo0, thanks for the link.
150
WTNT55 KNHC 201148
TCEAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM EAST OF SAN FERNANDO
MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2
228. fredwx
12:23 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
The latest radar suggests a small jog to the north as the eyewall reached landfall
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
227. outrocket
12:21 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
That area sure dont need a slow moving hurricane,they got one though..
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11011
226. rodrigo0
12:18 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/advisories/?C=M;O=D
225. rodrigo0
12:17 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
All advisories...

CLIC HERE...

Refresh for updates
224. outrocket
12:15 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
I see a flooded rio grande....the illeagal aliens trying to slip in the U.S. over the rio grande last night,may be still on the water slide,next stop..gulf of Mexico...
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11011
223. deb1
12:10 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
Couldn't get the NHC site to open but the Brownsville radar has a pretty good show. The 0900Z forecast is also available on http://hurricane.terrapin.com/
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2
222. rodrigo0
12:09 PM GMT on July 20, 2005
Emily is over water right now!... Still dont take ground...
221. outrocket
11:56 AM GMT on July 20, 2005
..guess emily has disturbed them so much,they needed the memory in the server to crunch numbers....LOL
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11011
220. rodrigo0
11:50 AM GMT on July 20, 2005
WTNT65 KNHC 201140
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
640 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2005

...EMILY MOVES INLAND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...

DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVCE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF MAJOR
HURRICANE EMILY MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 635 AM CDT THIS
MORNING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH
OF BOCA MADRE. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 35 MILES ...55 KM...EAST OF SAN
FERNANDO MEXICO...AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM... SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

FORECASTER STEWART
219. Alex980
11:50 AM GMT on July 20, 2005
ditto wont work for me either. Looks like Emily is finally coming onshore and from what I've heard not a particular heavily populated area so good news on that front even if the winds are still 125 mph. I must tip my hat to the NHC, they have gotten the track pretty much on the money from the get go.
218. rodrigo0
11:46 AM GMT on July 20, 2005
Server is down!
217. Damon85013
11:42 AM GMT on July 20, 2005
Yep, can't get the NHC homepage to load either...
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 256 Comments: 6215
216. outrocket
11:38 AM GMT on July 20, 2005
cant seem to get the NHC home page to open,anyone else having that problem?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11011
215. outrocket
11:33 AM GMT on July 20, 2005
dang if this keeps up the Rio grande will be the world larget water slide...
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11011
214. outrocket
11:29 AM GMT on July 20, 2005
ok,just woke uo,see emily is still teasing all on the coast..
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11011
213. EZMonster
6:35 AM GMT on July 20, 2005
Infrared showing SE quadrant intensification, she seems to be stretching to try to make strong CAT 3/weak CAT 4 boundary
212. EZMonster
6:31 AM GMT on July 20, 2005
Brownsville radar also clearly shows a W-NW track from 1:06 CDT-1:28 CDT. She's made up her mind and comin ashore, looks like
211. EZMonster
6:26 AM GMT on July 20, 2005
Check out on the current GOES12 infrared loops. Finally she is seeming to budge again. THe last wobble (from 5:45 - 6:15 UTC) was to the NW.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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