Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Should-have-been-Tammy

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:02 PM GMT on April 14, 2006

Well, we need to re-write the record books--again--for the amazing Hurricane Season of 2005. The season added another named storm to its near-unassailable record for number of named storms, which now stands at 28. NHC announced this week that previously unrecognized subtropical storm formed over the Atlantic near the Azores Islands on October 4, 2005. In the National Hurricane Center's report on the unnamed storm, the authors comment that on rare occasions, routine post-season review reveals the existence of tropical or subtropical storms that should have been given a name. The last time this happened was for 1997's first storm. In the case of the unnamed 2005 storm (which I'll call Should-have-been-Tammy, since that was the next name on the list when it formed), the storm started off as a non-tropical low pressure system. However, on October 4, microwave satellite data from the AMSU instrument on NOAA's polar-orbiting satellite revealed the presence of a warm core in the storm . Additionally, when Should-have-been-Tammy passed through the Azores Islands on Ocotber 5, no change of temperature was noted, as would have been the case if this storm was extratropical in nature. Extratropical storms derive their energy from temperature differences within them, and one should always see some sort of frontal passage and temperature change when these non-tropical storm pass by. Should-have-been-Tammy was not fully tropical, though, since its warm core did not extend all the way to the top of the lower atmosphere, and there was no upper-level anticyclone on top of the system. Thus, Should-have-been-Tammy will forever be called "Unnamed subtropical storm 4-5 October 2005."

Figure 1. METEOSAT-8 visible image of Should-have-been-Tammy taken at 15 UTC October 4, 2005. Surface observations are overlaid on the satellite image, and a cold front is analyzed to the west.

The existence of Should-have-been-Tammy raises an interesting point--if the storm had been correctly identified at the time and given a name, Hurricane Wilma would have been given the name Hurricane Alpha. This would have raised the question of what to do about replacing the name Alpha in the list of Greek names, since Alpha would have had to be retired. I've heard rumor that the list of Greek names is going to be ditched in favor of an alternate naming system, but I haven't heard anything official on this yet.

Severe weather outbreak today and Saturday
After a one-week break, severe weather returned to the central U.S. again last night, when tornadoes struck Iowa, killing one, and causing extensive damage to the University of Iowa campus. The Storm Prediction Center has put Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, and Iowa in its "Moderate Risk" bullseye for today, and western Iowa and eastern Nebraska on Saturday.

Next week: I'll comment on the Wall Street Journal opinion piece by noted MIT atmospheric scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen accusing climate scientists of alarmism intended to generate research funding.

Jeff Masters

A Hail of a Night (JEL)

This came crashing through the skylight in our kitchen. It broke when it hit the floor. It was bigger than a golf ball.

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101. DAVIDKRZW 8:27 PM GMT on April 16, 2006
Three members of a video team for The Weather Channel have been charged with trespassing for allegedly refusing to leave the property of a Warren County, Tennessee, you mean to tell me they did that? i hop it not jim cantore

105. ProgressivePulse 10:44 PM GMT on April 16, 2006
Anyone have any input on the intesity of the storms approaching Norther Indiana? I have a friend in KC that watched a tornado rumble by his house last night. Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4326

106. ProgressivePulse 10:44 PM GMT on April 16, 2006
seem to have a problem with my N's today lol Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4326

107. franck 11:03 PM GMT on April 16, 2006
Aren't those Weather Channel guys relatively new? Bad way to start a broadcast career on national cable. If a Tennesse Bruce tells you to leave them alone, better do it. I'm surprised they weren't laced with buckshot. Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150

108. Snowfire 11:52 PM GMT on April 16, 2006
To those posting entries containing obscenities: Please don't. You can make your point perfectly well without doing this. :-) Member Since: June 29, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 300

109. Jedkins 11:58 PM GMT on April 16, 2006
lol I know I am surprised they didnt get gunned eather,that is redneck material,lol I have been called a redneck before but I am just an outdoorsman not a redneck lol.I know Jorma Duran is new,but that doesn't have to do with it really they were just paranoid rednecks.

110. Jedkins 11:59 PM GMT on April 16, 2006
I tell you what though it is a vicious year for sever weather in the plains wonder if it will be down here in florida when our season hits.

111. Jedkins 12:03 AM GMT on April 17, 2006
I think because the weather channel is makin big bucks these days they may have not really noticed much about the private property signs,I am sure it aint the first time they have reported in these areas,so I sure it was kind of a surprise to them.

112. michalp 12:08 AM GMT on April 17, 2006
yes I mean cyclonebuster, not chaser, Where is cyclonebuster anyway. We all know if his tunnels got built hail would never be that big . . . ducks.

115. ProgressivePulse 2:11 AM GMT on April 17, 2006
Jed I will tell you one thing, HUMMMMMM seems alot like the spring of 04 doesn't it. Minus the drought inflicted by the lack of rain this winter. I have this strange sense when things are TOO nice for to long something is wrong. Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4326

116. Skyepony (Mod) 2:22 AM GMT on April 17, 2006
Since they lacked buckshot, maybe they had permission from Sherry Bruce. TWC isn't solisitors or poachers so i'd of made an exception. South of New Orleans, a Fight for Land Federal officials announced Wednesday that they intend to protect all of hurricane-swamped southeastern Louisiana except, perhaps, a strip of land south of New Orleans known as lower Plaquemines Parish Hurricane victims still vulnerable 5 hurricane drills planned for coast In a clear reference to the massive Houston-area traffic jam that developed during the Hurricane Rita evacuation last year, Chertoff drew applause when he said his department also will insist that oil companies and gasoline retailers equip stations with generators that will allow them to pump gasoline during evacuations and after storms. From my experience the #1 problem of getting gas is lack of it. As far as the drills, the anouncement (a few weeks ago) of there will be no superdome type place to go (in NO), is bothersome. Seems to be the source of the sudden plans to evacuate everyone far away. Road would be clogged with FEMA trailers. Fl is getting down... go 10's of miles, not 100's, away from the surge & hide from the wind. I couldn't imagine if the local shelters here were closed. Racing to get ready for storm season Last year's record 27 named storms exhausted the alphabetical list, forcing forecasters, for the first time, to use the Greek alphabet. Ya'll feel free to E-mail the auther about the typo:O Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29312

117. Skyepony (Mod) 2:27 AM GMT on April 17, 2006
oops forgot a link~ 5 hurricane drills planned for coast Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29312

118. DAVIDKRZW 2:30 AM GMT on April 17, 2006
polls are up in my blog for 2006

120. Skyepony (Mod) 4:03 AM GMT on April 17, 2006
I've watched this facinating site on Extremely High Horizon Refraction for a few years now. He has been nailing his seasonal forecasts. Well, his spring forcast is out once again~ Globally the summer of 2006 will be more than slightly warmer than the summer of 2005, however North America should be much warmer than the Northern Hemisphere average temperature. At this time there are 158 differential refraction 2006 shots of the greater Resolute Bay atmosphere bearing 110 to 280 degrees Azimuth, all together not representing April and May as with preceding years data. Despite this, 44% of 80 decimal levels were on average or greater than individual years from 2002-2006 inclusive, a very strong warming signal. The easy comparison to do is with 2005, the warmest year in history for the Northern Hemisphere. Comparing 2006 with 2005 makes sense. 2006 beats 2005 by a score of 44% to 26%, considering differential refraction numbers as being meaningless, or just random results, would mean that all winter/springs from 2002-2006 would have values hovering around 20%. This was not so, 70% of the biggest sun disks averages were measured between 2005-06, leaving 2002-04 with a showing of 30%, this in itself is a powerful sign of a hot summer to come. WD april 7, 2006 Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29312

122. DAVIDKRZW 4:15 AM GMT on April 17, 2006
Tropical Cyclone Monica wehave a new Tropical Cyclone

123. rwdobson 3:46 PM GMT on April 17, 2006
"110 degrees with a 70 degree dew point means a heat index of 120 degrees and 80 degree dew point means 134 degrees. YUCK!" lucikly, it generally doesn't get to 110 with a 70 dewpoint, and certainly not with an 80 dewpoint. dewpoints in the 70s usually keep the temps at or below 100. Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1574

124. SteveBloom 7:57 AM GMT on April 20, 2006
It seems there's hardly an iota of concern being expressed here for sticking to the post topic.

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