Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters ,
Posted: 10pm EDT Monday July 17
Emily is slowly strengthening. Latest recon at 9:22 pm from the Hurricane Hunters found the pressure down one mb to 983 mb, surface winds of at least 90 mph, and a good radar presentation of the eyewall. The eyewall was open to the SW, however.
The satellite images also show an improved organization, but also that Emily is still pulling in dry air from the Yucatan. In a few more hours, Emily will move far enough away from the Yucatan so that more significant strenthening can occur. We'll have a Category 2 storm by morning.
As far as the track forecast goes, there is a trough of low pressure pulling Emily a little more northward than yesterday's track; she is now moving at about 300 degrees. However, the cold front attached to the trough just cleared Michigan, bringing heavy thunderstorms here (and FINALLY clearing out the remains of Hurricane Dennis!) This trough and associated cold front are rapidly headed east, and by morning should lessen its pull on Emily. I expect a more westward track tomorrow, as the models and NHC are predicting. Texas should miss a direct hit by Emily.
It's amazing to watch the weather here in Michigan and see connections to a hurricane far away in the tropics. The weather everyone experiences is interconnected and influences what happens to the weather everywhere else. Similarly, for those of you who post to this blog, keep in mind that what you say and think influences what the other readers think and do, so please keep it constructive. It's been great reading everyone's input, keep the comments coming.
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