Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters , 6:03 PM GMT on October 20, 2015
Tropical Storm Koppu (known as Lando in the Philippines) is now arcing slowly around the northern tip of Luzon island after dumping prodigious amounts of rain over the last three days. At 15Z Tuesday (11:00 pm local time), Koppu was located at 19.2°N, 121.0°E, about 40 miles north of the north-central coast of Luzon. Koppu’s top sustained winds were down to 50 mph, but the storm should be able to maintain that strength for the next day as it crawls to the east. This will keep the island in moist westerly flow, so some additional rain is possible over already-soggy areas.![]()
Figure 1. Residents remove mud near their house after heavy rains brought about by Typhoon Koppu inundated homes in Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija province, north of Manila on October 20, 2015, days after the typhoon hit Aurora province. Image credit: Ted Aljibe/AFP/Getty Images.![]()
Figure 2. A man paddles a makeshift raft made from banana trunks over a flooded rice field at Barangay Camanutan, Isabela province, north of Manila on October 19, 2015, a day after Typhoon Koppu hit Aurora province. Residents of flooded farming villages in the Philippines were trapped on their rooftops October 19 and animals floated down fast-rising rivers. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.
Damage over the last three days from Koppu’s landfall and subsequent flooding is still being assessed, but weather.com reports that at least 28 people have died. Nearly all buildings and infrastructure sustained damage in the city of Casiguran, close to where Koppu came ashore. It appears that much of Koppu’s heavy rain stayed just offshore, but the upslope flow against the west side of Luzon’s mountains has been enough to generate immense local amounts, triggering mudslides and floods affecting the mountains as well as adjacent lowlands. The city of Baguio racked up 40.37” of rain through Tuesday afternoon, according to weather.com. A few miles south of Baguio, the massive San Roque Dam (the largest dam in the Philippines, and the world’s twentieth largest) had plenty of water to deal with. Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who maintains a comprehensive set of extreme temperature records on his website, pulled the following preliminary amounts for San Roque Dam from real-time data collected over a 24-hour period at the height of Koppu.
30 minutes: 66 mm (2.60”)
1 hour: 122 mm (4.80”)
6 hours: 483 mm (19.02”)
12 hours: 717 mm (28.23”)
18 hours: 1093 mm (43.03”)
24 hours: 1317 mm (51.85”)
If confirmed, these would set new 12- and 24-hour rainfall records for the Philippines, beating the records set during a July 1911 typhoon that dumped more than 2200 mm (87”) on Baguio in less than four days. Few other places on Earth have reported heavier amounts for half- and full-day periods. The world records of 1144 mm (45.04”) for 12 hours and 1825 mm (71.85”) for 24 hours were both set at the remote site of Foc-Foc on La Réunion island in the South Indian Ocean on January 7-8, 1966.![]()
Figure 3. Latest satellite image of TD 20-E.
Tropical Depression 20-E forms; expected to hit Mexico as a hurricane
Tropical Depression 20-E formed at 11 am EDT Tuesday in Mexico's Pacific waters about about 445 east-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, and appears poised to intensify into Hurricane Patricia later this week. TD 20-E is under light wind shear, has very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) to work with, and an atmosphere rich in moisture at mid-levels. These conditions should promote rapid intensification once TD 20-E gets well-organized and develops an inner core. Satellite loops on Tuesday morning showed that TD 20-E was poorly organized, with only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms and just the beginning of low-level spiral bands beginning to form. TD 20-E will move west-northwest, parallel to the coast today through Thursday, then turn abruptly inland to the north on Friday as it gets pulled northwards by a trough of low pressure.![]()
Figure 4. MODIS image of Hurricane Olaf in the waters 1300 east-southeast of Hawaii as seen from NASA's Terra satellite on Monday, October 19, 2015 at 19:35 UTC. At the time, Olaf was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Olaf hits Category 4
Hurricane Olaf intensified into a major Category 4 hurricane on Monday at 5 pm EDT in the waters about 1200 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, becoming the the Northern Hemisphere's record-setting 21st Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of 2015 (previous record: eighteen in 2004, according to wunderblogger Dr. Phil Klotzbach.) Only one of those twenty Category 4 and 5 storms--Hurricane Joaquin--came from the Atlantic. Olaf is also notable for its low latitude. Coincidentally, the two most equatorward Category 4 cyclones on record for the Western Hemisphere share the same name: this year’s Hurricane Olaf (10.0°N) and 2005’s Cyclone Olaf (10.0°S).
By Tuesday morning at 5 am EDT, Olaf’s top sustained winds had increased to 150 mph, where they were holding through 11 am EDT. No other Northeast Pacific storm on record has been this strong any later than September 6, according to Klotzbach and Blake. An additional increase in winds of 10 mph would bring Olaf to Category 5 status, but Tuesday afternoon satellite loops showed a modest warming of the cloud tops, indicating that Olaf had likely peaked in strength. Olaf is likely to turn to the north by this weekend well east of Hawaii. Latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and European models keep Olaf moving to the northeast next week, away from Hawaii.
Accumulated cyclone energy: The Pacific has it
The hyperactive Pacific is reflected in year-to-date statistics on accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) compiled by Phil Klotzbach using data from the National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center. ACE takes into account the strength as well as the longevity of tropical cyclones, but not their size. Through October 19, the Northeast Pacific ACE (184% of year-to-date average) was on track to end up in second place behind 1992; the Northwest Pacific ACE (189% of year-to-date average) was at record levels for the time of year; and the Central Pacific ACE was at an astounding 606% of its year-to-date average, partly a reflection of the many years that feature little activity in that basin. Within the next day or so, according to Klotzbach, Hurricane Olaf should push the Central Pacific past 1994 to set the basin’s all-time seasonal record. The North Atlantic is at a mere 62% of its year-to-date average, but the prolific Pacific has still pushed the entire Northern Hemisphere to a new year-to-date ACE record as of October 20, says Klotzbach.
Bob Henson and Jeff Masters
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215. canyonboy
3:15 PM GMT on October 21, 2015Quoting 128. canyonboy:
Interesting that the global ACE is below average. Very quiet elsewhere?
um, I did, that's where I got the WU link for the below average global ACE.
However, I will grant you that I usually skipped the last chapter in school.
212. WeatherConvoy
2:05 PM GMT on October 21, 2015I agree with this gentleman. I am a MET student and it is a very difficult field. I respect all METS who have a Degree period. JB has been a PROFESSIONAL MET for over 30 years he gets my love and respect just like Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson. Everyone has different opinions and views you can agree or disagree that's up to you. However, we can't discredit someone just because u don't believe in what he/she says. JB has a good recoed of long range forecasting that's his forte or bread and butter. He might not be strong in other aspects of METEOROLOGY but he does due Long Term forecasting well. Thank you Brandon P Brady
211. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:02 PM GMT on October 21, 2015210. barbamz
1:55 PM GMT on October 21, 2015Typhoon Koppu weakens rapidly after killing 58 in Philippines
Source: Reuters - Wed, 21 Oct 2015 11:19 GMT
209. capeflorida
1:52 PM GMT on October 21, 2015208. ariot
1:49 PM GMT on October 21, 2015I'm just passing along an oddity.
One of the government agencies had a meeting scheduled next week to discuss emergency importing of rice. That meeting was scheduled long ago amid expectations that a strong El Nino would cause drought and the government would need to take preemptive action by importing rice.
The meeting will go on as planned, but the reasons for importing rice will be different.
"The National Food Authority (NFA) Council had been due to meet on Oct 29 to review the country's rice supplies and discuss increased imports of up to 1 million tonnes due to forecasts of a severe El Nino-induced dry weather."
Apologies if repost.
207. sar2401
1:47 PM GMT on October 21, 2015206. Skyepony (Mod)
1:46 PM GMT on October 21, 2015205. Accu35blog
1:20 PM GMT on October 21, 2015204. NativeSun
1:14 PM GMT on October 21, 2015203. 62901IL
1:12 PM GMT on October 21, 2015Huh?
202. 62901IL
1:11 PM GMT on October 21, 2015That looks like some good Deep Convection.
201. islander101010
1:08 PM GMT on October 21, 2015200. NativeSun
1:06 PM GMT on October 21, 2015199. NativeSun
1:02 PM GMT on October 21, 2015197. NativeSun
12:46 PM GMT on October 21, 2015196. tiggerhurricanes2001
12:32 PM GMT on October 21, 2015Yeah like Ida in 2009.... which reached 110 mph winds in the western Caribbean. Living proof of why u shouldn't let your guard down b4 November..... even in an el nino year. Yes,however i do believe we've had the majority of our activity this season.
195. weathermanwannabe
12:24 PM GMT on October 21, 2015194. Grothar
12:21 PM GMT on October 21, 2015193. weathermanwannabe
12:20 PM GMT on October 21, 2015192. Grothar
12:20 PM GMT on October 21, 2015191. sar2401
12:12 PM GMT on October 21, 2015190. GeoffreyWPB
12:07 PM GMT on October 21, 2015NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
The cloud pattern of the storm is not well organized at this time,
with not much deep convection concentrated near the estimated
center position. There is also a lack of well-defined banding
features. The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt, in
agreement with a Dvorak CI Value from TAFB.
The center is not easy to track on nighttime imagery, with a
significant spread in fix locations from TAFB and SAB, and the
initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 270/6 kt. The
primary steering features over the next few days are a
mid-tropospheric trough extending southward into extreme
northwestern Mexico and a high over the Gulf of Mexico. This flow
regime should cause Patricia to turn gradually to the right over the
next few days, and cross the coast of southwestern Mexico within 72
hours or so. The official track forecast resembles the previous
one but is a little faster, and is close to the new model
consensus. This is between the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.
Although the tropical cyclone has not strengthened significantly
thus far, the environment seems to be quite conducive for
intensification. With very warm sea surface temperatures near 30
deg C, light vertical shear, and a very moist atmosphere likely to
prevail during the next couple of days, Patricia is forecast to
strengthen into a hurricane by tomorrow. The official intensity
forecast is close to the LGEM guidance, but it should be noted that
if the system develops a well-defined inner core, rapid
intensification is certainly possible. Note that in the official
wind speed forecast shown here, additional strengthening is implied
after the 48 hour forecast and up until landfall.
Based on the new 48-hour forecast location and the predicted wind
radii, A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Watch have been
issued for portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 13.0N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 13.2N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 14.0N 99.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 15.1N 101.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.5N 103.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 20.5N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/0600Z 23.0N 104.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
189. Forsaken
11:02 AM GMT on October 21, 2015188. tampabaymatt
10:09 AM GMT on October 21, 2015187. tampabaymatt
10:08 AM GMT on October 21, 2015186. barbamz
9:14 AM GMT on October 21, 2015Koppu leaves behind trail of destruction in Philippines
BBC, 21 minutes ago
Tropical Storm Koppu is heading away from the Philippines' main island of Luzon, leaving behind a trail of devastation in the country's crucial farming region.
At least 39 people were killed as heavy rains triggered flooding and landslips, and toppled walls and trees.
More than 100,000 villagers remain in evacuation centres.
The government is holding an emergency meeting to decide whether additional rice imports will be needed.
The meeting had already been scheduled for next week to try to prepare for drought which predictions suggest could be induced by the El Nino severe weather system.
But an official from The National Food Authority (NFA) told Reuters news agency the meeting would be held this week, after some 400,000 tonnes of paddy rice was destroyed by Koppu. ...
More see link above.
185. SubtropicalHi
8:32 AM GMT on October 21, 2015Its not abnormal for Texas either. If it happens.
As seen at Buc-ee's on the evacuation routes: "Stop here get your troll nuggets".
(Buc-ee's is a Texas travel center chain that sells novelty items such as "beaver nuggets")
184. BayFog
7:20 AM GMT on October 21, 2015It would take a very compact storm to make it up the slot. An average sized storm would be torn apart by the mountains on either side.
183. Zivipotty
7:01 AM GMT on October 21, 2015182. swflurker
5:36 AM GMT on October 21, 2015181. Accu35blog
4:40 AM GMT on October 21, 2015180. DCSwithunderscores
4:10 AM GMT on October 21, 2015I can say "cold snap".
179. knightwarrior41
4:06 AM GMT on October 21, 2015178. weatherbro
3:32 AM GMT on October 21, 2015Right on time! The BSR(Bering Straight Rule) states that whatever occurs around the Aleutian islands/Bering Sea expect a similar synoptic setup 2.5-3 weeks later. This rule has worked like a charm since early September. We had an Omega block in the west Aleutians with sustained troughs on either side(Japan=west; Eastern/central Aleutians=East) around October 10th Link . Thus expect a significant full latitude sustained trough over the eastern US between Oct. 28th-Nov. 3rd with an Omega high out west. This time I think the SE rather then the NE will get the brunt(and yes Florida should get a taste of this too)!
177. BaltimoreBrian
3:19 AM GMT on October 21, 2015176. Patrap
3:14 AM GMT on October 21, 2015Coastal Flood Statement
Statement as of 9:31 PM CDT on October 20, 2015
... Minor coastal flooding of low lying areas possible...
* coastal flooding... tides of 1 to 2 feet above normal.
* Timing... through at least Wednesday.
* Impacts... significant impact is not expected. However... some
nuisance flooding of low lying roadways outside of levee
protection will be possible.
175. SPLbeater
3:13 AM GMT on October 21, 2015Wish they could do that from the get go on Atlantic storms. Apparently the waters east of Mexico remove model sanity... xD
173. washingtonian115
3:11 AM GMT on October 21, 2015Never mind.Now I seriously think you're trolling
171. Patrap
2:59 AM GMT on October 21, 2015169. Accu35blog
2:54 AM GMT on October 21, 2015167. SouthCentralTx
2:50 AM GMT on October 21, 2015Well it seems people hit the Emergency button way to soon and too often these days. Was about a month ago Rick Scott declared state of emergency for Florida over Tropical Storm Erika which really didn't seem to do much if anything to Florida besides a little rain.
166. bappit
2:48 AM GMT on October 21, 2015Edit: cool article. "Parts of the Long Point and Eureka Heights faults appear to be particularly active; some sections of the Long Point fault have averaged more than 2 cm/yr of vertical offset over the last 20 years." That fault is very obvious when you drive over it. Been a while but the road used to be well patched and it made a heck of a speed bump. This part is also interesting: "Drainage ditches in Houston necessarily operate on very low gradients. We have observed gradients altered by faulting; locally, fault movements have decreased or reversed flow along sections of numerous ditches in the Houston area, an effect of obvious importance to flood-control programs. Homeowners on the downthrown sides of faults in areas of impaired drainage are increasingly susceptible to flooding, as their homes lose more elevation with every increment of fault movement. In such areas it is possible to suffer fault-related damage, caused by flooding, hundreds of meters from the nearest fault. Gravity-fed sewer lines may likewise experience reversed flow, leading to backup of storm drains and ponding of sewage at its sources. This effect has been noted at several locations, particularly along the Eureka Heights and Long Point faults." That's a nasty surprise!
165. OCF
2:42 AM GMT on October 21, 2015And which model is the green dots running lengthwise up the Gulf of California? That would be a freaky scenario. (Note that the Gulf of California has some rather warm water.)