Koppu Pulling Away from Philippines; TD 20-E May Threaten Mexico

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters , 6:03 PM GMT on October 20, 2015

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Tropical Storm Koppu (known as Lando in the Philippines) is now arcing slowly around the northern tip of Luzon island after dumping prodigious amounts of rain over the last three days. At 15Z Tuesday (11:00 pm local time), Koppu was located at 19.2°N, 121.0°E, about 40 miles north of the north-central coast of Luzon. Koppu’s top sustained winds were down to 50 mph, but the storm should be able to maintain that strength for the next day as it crawls to the east. This will keep the island in moist westerly flow, so some additional rain is possible over already-soggy areas.


Figure 1. Residents remove mud near their house after heavy rains brought about by Typhoon Koppu inundated homes in Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija province, north of Manila on October 20, 2015, days after the typhoon hit Aurora province. Image credit: Ted Aljibe/AFP/Getty Images.


Figure 2. A man paddles a makeshift raft made from banana trunks over a flooded rice field at Barangay Camanutan, Isabela province, north of Manila on October 19, 2015, a day after Typhoon Koppu hit Aurora province. Residents of flooded farming villages in the Philippines were trapped on their rooftops October 19 and animals floated down fast-rising rivers. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.


Damage over the last three days from Koppu’s landfall and subsequent flooding is still being assessed, but weather.com reports that at least 28 people have died. Nearly all buildings and infrastructure sustained damage in the city of Casiguran, close to where Koppu came ashore. It appears that much of Koppu’s heavy rain stayed just offshore, but the upslope flow against the west side of Luzon’s mountains has been enough to generate immense local amounts, triggering mudslides and floods affecting the mountains as well as adjacent lowlands. The city of Baguio racked up 40.37” of rain through Tuesday afternoon, according to weather.com. A few miles south of Baguio, the massive San Roque Dam (the largest dam in the Philippines, and the world’s twentieth largest) had plenty of water to deal with. Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who maintains a comprehensive set of extreme temperature records on his website, pulled the following preliminary amounts for San Roque Dam from real-time data collected over a 24-hour period at the height of Koppu.

30 minutes: 66 mm (2.60”)
1 hour: 122 mm (4.80”)
6 hours: 483 mm (19.02”)
12 hours: 717 mm (28.23”)
18 hours: 1093 mm (43.03”)
24 hours: 1317 mm (51.85”)

If confirmed, these would set new 12- and 24-hour rainfall records for the Philippines, beating the records set during a July 1911 typhoon that dumped more than 2200 mm (87”) on Baguio in less than four days. Few other places on Earth have reported heavier amounts for half- and full-day periods. The world records of 1144 mm (45.04”) for 12 hours and 1825 mm (71.85”) for 24 hours were both set at the remote site of Foc-Foc on La Réunion island in the South Indian Ocean on January 7-8, 1966.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of TD 20-E.

Tropical Depression 20-E forms; expected to hit Mexico as a hurricane
Tropical Depression 20-E formed at 11 am EDT Tuesday in Mexico's Pacific waters about about 445 east-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, and appears poised to intensify into Hurricane Patricia later this week. TD 20-E is under light wind shear, has very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) to work with, and an atmosphere rich in moisture at mid-levels. These conditions should promote rapid intensification once TD 20-E gets well-organized and develops an inner core. Satellite loops on Tuesday morning showed that TD 20-E was poorly organized, with only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms and just the beginning of low-level spiral bands beginning to form. TD 20-E will move west-northwest, parallel to the coast today through Thursday, then turn abruptly inland to the north on Friday as it gets pulled northwards by a trough of low pressure.


Figure 4. MODIS image of Hurricane Olaf in the waters 1300 east-southeast of Hawaii as seen from NASA's Terra satellite on Monday, October 19, 2015 at 19:35 UTC. At the time, Olaf was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Olaf hits Category 4
Hurricane Olaf intensified into a major Category 4 hurricane on Monday at 5 pm EDT in the waters about 1200 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, becoming the the Northern Hemisphere's record-setting 21st Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of 2015 (previous record: eighteen in 2004, according to wunderblogger Dr. Phil Klotzbach.) Only one of those twenty Category 4 and 5 storms--Hurricane Joaquin--came from the Atlantic. Olaf is also notable for its low latitude. Coincidentally, the two most equatorward Category 4 cyclones on record for the Western Hemisphere share the same name: this year’s Hurricane Olaf (10.0°N) and 2005’s Cyclone Olaf (10.0°S).

By Tuesday morning at 5 am EDT, Olaf’s top sustained winds had increased to 150 mph, where they were holding through 11 am EDT. No other Northeast Pacific storm on record has been this strong any later than September 6, according to Klotzbach and Blake. An additional increase in winds of 10 mph would bring Olaf to Category 5 status, but Tuesday afternoon satellite loops showed a modest warming of the cloud tops, indicating that Olaf had likely peaked in strength. Olaf is likely to turn to the north by this weekend well east of Hawaii. Latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and European models keep Olaf moving to the northeast next week, away from Hawaii.

Accumulated cyclone energy: The Pacific has it
The hyperactive Pacific is reflected in year-to-date statistics on accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) compiled by Phil Klotzbach using data from the National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center. ACE takes into account the strength as well as the longevity of tropical cyclones, but not their size. Through October 19, the Northeast Pacific ACE (184% of year-to-date average) was on track to end up in second place behind 1992; the Northwest Pacific ACE (189% of year-to-date average) was at record levels for the time of year; and the Central Pacific ACE was at an astounding 606% of its year-to-date average, partly a reflection of the many years that feature little activity in that basin. Within the next day or so, according to Klotzbach, Hurricane Olaf should push the Central Pacific past 1994 to set the basin’s all-time seasonal record. The North Atlantic is at a mere 62% of its year-to-date average, but the prolific Pacific has still pushed the entire Northern Hemisphere to a new year-to-date ACE record as of October 20, says Klotzbach.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

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215. canyonboy
3:15 PM GMT on October 21, 2015

Quoting 128. canyonboy:

Interesting that the global ACE is below average. Very quiet elsewhere?


Quoting 138. ACSeattle:


Reading the last paragraph of the above blog might be informative.


um, I did, that's where I got the WU link for the below average global ACE.

However, I will grant you that I usually skipped the last chapter in school.
Member Since: December 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 92
212. WeatherConvoy
2:05 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 197. NativeSun:

A lot more than you or anyone else on this blog, JB is a very good forecaster, especially long range forecasting. He has been forecasting a very long time and his forecast are more often right than wrong. It's not Just JB either, he works with Joe D and Dr. Maue, who is just as good if not better then DR. Masters, in what he specializes in.

I agree with this gentleman. I am a MET student and it is a very difficult field. I respect all METS who have a Degree period. JB has been a PROFESSIONAL MET for over 30 years he gets my love and respect just like Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson. Everyone has different opinions and views you can agree or disagree that's up to you. However, we can't discredit someone just because u don't believe in what he/she says. JB has a good recoed of long range forecasting that's his forte or bread and butter. He might not be strong in other aspects of METEOROLOGY but he does due Long Term forecasting well. Thank you Brandon P Brady
Member Since: June 30, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 267
211. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:02 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
210. barbamz
1:55 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Deathtoll sadly further rising:
Typhoon Koppu weakens rapidly after killing 58 in Philippines
Source: Reuters - Wed, 21 Oct 2015 11:19 GMT
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 74 Comments: 8616
209. capeflorida
1:52 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Member Since: October 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 250
208. ariot
1:49 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Rain in Baguio City is a sight to behold, indeed.

I'm just passing along an oddity.

One of the government agencies had a meeting scheduled next week to discuss emergency importing of rice. That meeting was scheduled long ago amid expectations that a strong El Nino would cause drought and the government would need to take preemptive action by importing rice.

The meeting will go on as planned, but the reasons for importing rice will be different.

"The National Food Authority (NFA) Council had been due to meet on Oct 29 to review the country's rice supplies and discuss increased imports of up to 1 million tonnes due to forecasts of a severe El Nino-induced dry weather."

Apologies if repost.

Member Since: June 25, 2015 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
207. sar2401
1:47 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 204. NativeSun:

Why didn't my response show up? All I said was he could be right, and it would make a lot of people look really foolish if he was.
Because you put it in the wrong place. If you don't start a reply after the last em and blockquote in the quoted text, your reply won't show up. No conspiracy or anything, just bad web design.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 23812
206. Skyepony (Mod)
1:46 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Several videos of accumulated hail from that hail storm in El Paso, TX yesterday are online today.. Many show heavy rain, hail and hail rivers running down roadways. There is another video in my blog from lastnight that included this event.


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 328 Comments: 41830
205. Accu35blog
1:20 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 191. sar2401:

Or, maybe not right on time. The cold snap is now looking less snappish than it as with the 12z run. Of course, it may turn more snappish again with the next run. Models out 200 or so hours often do that.


yeah but GFS this morning is still bullish on the cold coming south and snow for the mountains
Member Since: October 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 85
204. NativeSun
1:14 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 199. NativeSun:


Why didn't my response show up? All I said was he could be right, and it would make a lot of people look really foolish if he was.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 766
203. 62901IL
1:12 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 155. BaltimoreBrian:

Winter storm Vernon (Dursley). Fat, overbearing and out of control!


Huh?
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2932
202. 62901IL
1:11 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 193. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks................Fascinating look to the Northern Hemisphere tropics this morning in both basins (Pacific and Atlantic), with several tropical systems intermingled with large areas of moisture sandwiched between large swatches of dry air and the jet streaming across the higher latitudes:







That looks like some good Deep Convection.
Member Since: June 14, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2932
201. islander101010
1:08 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
local salt-water levels are receding. it got high but not near the mark nov 1994 e cen fl.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 5967
200. NativeSun
1:06 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 158. pcola57:



Imbedd no worky BB.. :)
I don't see Florida on that map, their must of been Global Warming going on back then to raise the Oceans enough to cover Florida.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 766
199. NativeSun
1:02 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 136. FunnelVortex:



I would probably take JB more seriously if it wasn't for his climate denial.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 766
197. NativeSun
12:46 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 77. FunnelVortex:



You are gonna trust JB? lol
A lot more than you or anyone else on this blog, JB is a very good forecaster, especially long range forecasting. He has been forecasting a very long time and his forecast are more often right than wrong. It's not Just JB either, he works with Joe D and Dr. Maue, who is just as good if not better then DR. Masters, in what he specializes in.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 766
196. tiggerhurricanes2001
12:32 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 143. Tazmanian:




its a vary strong EL nino year so hurricane season this year all i can is its vary march over and done with now if we where in a strong LA Nino year then i would be saying yep but hurricane season for this year is done


in strong EL Nino year like this one hurricane season ends early and we are seeing that vary well on this

vary high wind shear is taking over wish means hurricane season is over






Yeah like Ida in 2009.... which reached 110 mph winds in the western Caribbean. Living proof of why u shouldn't let your guard down b4 November..... even in an el nino year. Yes,however i do believe we've had the majority of our activity this season.
Member Since: December 15, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 660
195. weathermanwannabe
12:24 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11474
194. Grothar
12:21 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 72 Comments: 29270
193. weathermanwannabe
12:20 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Good Morning Folks................Fascinating look to the Northern Hemisphere tropics this morning in both basins (Pacific and Atlantic), with several tropical systems intermingled with large areas of moisture sandwiched between large swatches of dry air and the jet streaming across the higher latitudes:




Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11474
192. Grothar
12:20 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 72 Comments: 29270
191. sar2401
12:12 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 178. weatherbro:



Right on time! The BSR(Bering Straight Rule) states that whatever occurs around the Aleutian islands/Bering Sea expect a similar synoptic setup 2.5-3 weeks later. This rule has worked like a charm since early September. We had an Omega block in the west Aleutians with sustained troughs on either side(Japan=west; Eastern/central Aleutians=East) around October 10th Link . Thus expect a significant full latitude sustained trough over the eastern US between Oct. 28th-Nov. 3rd with an Omega high out west. This time I think the SE rather then the NE will get the brunt(and yes Florida should get a taste of this too)!
Or, maybe not right on time. The cold snap is now looking less snappish than it as with the 12z run. Of course, it may turn more snappish again with the next run. Models out 200 or so hours often do that.

Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 23812
190. GeoffreyWPB
12:07 PM GMT on October 21, 2015
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

The cloud pattern of the storm is not well organized at this time,
with not much deep convection concentrated near the estimated
center position. There is also a lack of well-defined banding
features. The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt, in
agreement with a Dvorak CI Value from TAFB.

The center is not easy to track on nighttime imagery, with a
significant spread in fix locations from TAFB and SAB, and the
initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 270/6 kt. The
primary steering features over the next few days are a
mid-tropospheric trough extending southward into extreme
northwestern Mexico and a high over the Gulf of Mexico. This flow
regime should cause Patricia to turn gradually to the right over the
next few days, and cross the coast of southwestern Mexico within 72
hours or so. The official track forecast resembles the previous
one but is a little faster, and is close to the new model
consensus. This is between the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Although the tropical cyclone has not strengthened significantly
thus far, the environment seems to be quite conducive for
intensification. With very warm sea surface temperatures near 30
deg C, light vertical shear, and a very moist atmosphere likely to
prevail during the next couple of days, Patricia is forecast to
strengthen into a hurricane by tomorrow. The official intensity
forecast is close to the LGEM guidance, but it should be noted that
if the system develops a well-defined inner core, rapid
intensification is certainly possible. Note that in the official
wind speed forecast shown here, additional strengthening is implied
after the 48 hour forecast and up until landfall.

Based on the new 48-hour forecast location and the predicted wind
radii, A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Watch have been
issued for portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 13.0N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 13.2N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 14.0N 99.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 15.1N 101.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.5N 103.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 20.5N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/0600Z 23.0N 104.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 12248
189. Forsaken
11:02 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 150. BaltimoreBrian:

A 1675 map of ocean currents by Eberhard Werner Happel. Click image to expand.


Wowwww... California was a lot bigger back then! hahaha
Member Since: July 16, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 150
188. tampabaymatt
10:09 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Member Since: September 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 2928
187. tampabaymatt
10:08 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
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186. barbamz
9:14 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Good morning. News from the Philippines are worsening, unfortunately:

Koppu leaves behind trail of destruction in Philippines
BBC, 21 minutes ago
Tropical Storm Koppu is heading away from the Philippines' main island of Luzon, leaving behind a trail of devastation in the country's crucial farming region.
At least 39 people were killed as heavy rains triggered flooding and landslips, and toppled walls and trees.
More than 100,000 villagers remain in evacuation centres.

The government is holding an emergency meeting to decide whether additional rice imports will be needed.
The meeting had already been scheduled for next week to try to prepare for drought which predictions suggest could be induced by the El Nino severe weather system.
But an official from The National Food Authority (NFA) told Reuters news agency the meeting would be held this week, after some 400,000 tonnes of paddy rice was destroyed by Koppu. ...

More see link above.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 74 Comments: 8616
185. SubtropicalHi
8:32 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 182. swflurker:

Normal weather for us in FL.




Its not abnormal for Texas either. If it happens.
As seen at Buc-ee's on the evacuation routes: "Stop here get your troll nuggets".

(Buc-ee's is a Texas travel center chain that sells novelty items such as "beaver nuggets")
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 399
184. BayFog
7:20 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 165. OCF:


And which model is the green dots running lengthwise up the Gulf of California? That would be a freaky scenario. (Note that the Gulf of California has some rather warm water.)

It would take a very compact storm to make it up the slot. An average sized storm would be torn apart by the mountains on either side.
Member Since: July 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1003
183. Zivipotty
7:01 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
The low SW of the Iberian Peninsula developed much more organised convection during the night, and now looks rather tropical than subtropical. It will go trough Madeira today, like 5 days ago, but now from the opposite direction.

Member Since: May 2, 2015 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
182. swflurker
5:36 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Normal weather for us in FL.

Quoting 172. pureet1948:

4 KHGX 202033
HWOHGX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179- 195 >200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-211300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO -FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
333 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND ABOVE NORMAL TIDES. MINOR FLOODING
OVER LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AMPLE MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
HAPPENING COULD COME SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS
FOR THIS EVENT SHOULD BE IN A 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ENDING UP WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON AREA. IF PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS END UP RECEIVING HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT SATURATE
THE GROUNDS...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MIGHT BE NEEDED.

STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...AND ELEVATED TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED TOO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.





If I were the governor of Texas, I would advise non-residents to leave the state while they can, unless they've got urgent business in the region.
Member Since: August 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 362
181. Accu35blog
4:40 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 178. weatherbro:



Right on time! The BSR(Bering Straight Rule) states that whatever occurs around the Aleutian islands/Bering Sea expect a similar synoptic setup 2.5-3 weeks later. This rule has worked like a charm since early September. We had an Omega block in the west Aleutians with sustained troughs on either side(Japan=west; Eastern/central Aleutians=East) around October 10th Link . Thus expect a significant full latitude sustained trough over the eastern US between Oct. 28th-Nov. 3rd with an Omega high out west. This time I think the SE rather then the NE will get the brunt(and yes Florida should get a taste of this too)!
southeast will get what?
Member Since: October 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 85
180. DCSwithunderscores
4:10 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 162. unknowncomic:

Can you say cold snap?



I can say "cold snap".
Member Since: March 29, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 475
179. knightwarrior41
4:06 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 178. weatherbro:



Right on time! The BSR(Bering Straight Rule) states that whatever occurs around the Aleutian islands/Bering Sea expect a similar synoptic setup 2.5-3 weeks later. This rule has worked like a charm since early September. We had an Omega block in the west Aleutians with sustained troughs on either side(Japan=west; Eastern/central Aleutians=East) around October 10th Link . Thus expect a significant full latitude sustained trough over the eastern US between Oct. 28th-Nov. 3rd with an Omega high out west. This time I think the SE rather then the NE will get the brunt(and yes Florida should get a taste of this too)!
would be kind of cool if this really pans out :)
Member Since: September 30, 2015 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
178. weatherbro
3:32 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 162. unknowncomic:

Can you say cold snap?



Right on time! The BSR(Bering Straight Rule) states that whatever occurs around the Aleutian islands/Bering Sea expect a similar synoptic setup 2.5-3 weeks later. This rule has worked like a charm since early September. We had an Omega block in the west Aleutians with sustained troughs on either side(Japan=west; Eastern/central Aleutians=East) around October 10th Link . Thus expect a significant full latitude sustained trough over the eastern US between Oct. 28th-Nov. 3rd with an Omega high out west. This time I think the SE rather then the NE will get the brunt(and yes Florida should get a taste of this too)!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1487
177. BaltimoreBrian
3:19 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
re the earthquake depth discussion, an extremely deep earthquake occurred in Bolivia on June 9, 1994. It was at a depth of 647 km and had a magnitude of 8.2. An earthquake of similar depth and intensity, 609 km in depth and magnitude 8.3 occurred in the Okhotsk Sea in 2013.

Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 11231
176. Patrap
3:14 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Orleans Parish

Coastal Flood Statement


Statement as of 9:31 PM CDT on October 20, 2015

... Minor coastal flooding of low lying areas possible...

* coastal flooding... tides of 1 to 2 feet above normal.

* Timing... through at least Wednesday.

* Impacts... significant impact is not expected. However... some
nuisance flooding of low lying roadways outside of levee
protection will be possible.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 135506
175. SPLbeater
3:13 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 126. Grothar:




Wish they could do that from the get go on Atlantic storms. Apparently the waters east of Mexico remove model sanity... xD
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4520
173. washingtonian115
3:11 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 168. pureet1948:




Can the argument be made that the same weather pattern that led to the horrifying South Carolina floods is about to occur in Texas? Is Houston likely to be a deserted city when all's said and done?
If you want to be taken serious,you have to stop with the fear mongering.A big rain event could occur yes but not to a apocalyptic event of a whole metro area that has a 4 million population being abandoned.C'mon now.

Never mind.Now I seriously think you're trolling
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19942
171. Patrap
2:59 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 151. no1der:

The headline at ClimateProgress read, "This is about as mad as the Dalai Lama gets"


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 437 Comments: 135506
169. Accu35blog
2:54 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 163. TCweatherman:

That would be great, WOW!
sweet, ad that with a storm and surprise for parts of the southeast and mid Atlantic
Member Since: October 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 85
167. SouthCentralTx
2:50 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 148. washingtonian115:

The clouds haven't even gathered yet for him to even consider declaring such a thing yet.


Well it seems people hit the Emergency button way to soon and too often these days. Was about a month ago Rick Scott declared state of emergency for Florida over Tropical Storm Erika which really didn't seem to do much if anything to Florida besides a little rain.
Member Since: March 19, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 365
166. bappit
2:48 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 137. beell:



Evening, bappit,
You might have already heard of it...if you have, pass it on! If not, a nice little outing for the curious along Houston's most famous fault. A "slump" fault that is thought by some to be a surface expression of the thousands of feet of sediment sliding inexorably towards the Gulf of Mexico Basin. Have to consider water and mineral extraction as exacerbating factors. 2-3' elevation changes along the scarp in some places. Buckled sidewalks, cracked building walls, and displaced curbs are just a few of the exciting sights to see. Somewhere, I have a GPS file...somewhere...


slump fault

A general route map

Discussion of Faults in the Houston Area-usgs.gov

Your out-of-town visitors will be deeply impressed by your local knowledge.


Those are growth faults, Beell. (Bonus round: why do they call them growth faults?) The Baton Rouge fault is one. It and the pleistocene terrace were the only visible elevation changes where I grew up.

Edit: cool article. "Parts of the Long Point and Eureka Heights faults appear to be particularly active; some sections of the Long Point fault have averaged more than 2 cm/yr of vertical offset over the last 20 years." That fault is very obvious when you drive over it. Been a while but the road used to be well patched and it made a heck of a speed bump. This part is also interesting: "Drainage ditches in Houston necessarily operate on very low gradients. We have observed gradients altered by faulting; locally, fault movements have decreased or reversed flow along sections of numerous ditches in the Houston area, an effect of obvious importance to flood-control programs. Homeowners on the downthrown sides of faults in areas of impaired drainage are increasingly susceptible to flooding, as their homes lose more elevation with every increment of fault movement. In such areas it is possible to suffer fault-related damage, caused by flooding, hundreds of meters from the nearest fault. Gravity-fed sewer lines may likewise experience reversed flow, leading to backup of storm drains and ponding of sewage at its sources. This effect has been noted at several locations, particularly along the Eureka Heights and Long Point faults." That's a nasty surprise!
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6275
165. OCF
2:42 AM GMT on October 21, 2015
Quoting 126. Grothar:



And which model is the green dots running lengthwise up the Gulf of California? That would be a freaky scenario. (Note that the Gulf of California has some rather warm water.)
Member Since: February 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 82

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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