New Orleans tornado and tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:18 PM GMT on February 03, 2006

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While the groundhogs slumbered before their big prognosticating efforts Groundhog Day morning, two tornadoes ripped through the New Orleans metro area, adding to the misery and fright of a city still deeply wounded by the devastation of Hurricane Katrina. One tornado hit Armstrong International Airport. Here's the official NWS damage report from that event:

Weather observer observed funnel cloud at the same time that substantial damage occurred to Concourse C. 20 x 8 foot glass window along with metal frame were sucked out in walkway area just past security checkpoint. Four jet bridges were damaged. Section of temporary roof was blown away. The airport reported a peak wind gust of 43 mph at 236 am. Warehouse building reported damaged across the highway from airport.

Two other tornadoes were reported nearby. Here's the official damage reports from those events:

Ground survey indicated tornado touched down initially along River Road at Iris Ave near Oschner Hospital. Several structures had roofs removed. Warehouses damaged and power lines/poles snapped. The tornado traveled north northeast for approximately 0.75 miles. Damage width 150 yds.
Several trailers near Oschner Hospital in Metairie, Jefferson Parish, sustained roof damage...roofs were torn upwards from their base.

Ground survey indicated strong tornado moved on a north northeast path across the Lakeview area of New Orleans. Several houses heavy damaged...other houses with lighter damage and power poles snapped. Former State Police troop B communications tower was knocked down on Veterans Blvd near Fleur de Lis. Damage path approximately 2.5 miles. Width approximately 150 yards. Further ground survey and investigation may result in consolidating Lakeview tornado with tornado near Oschner Hospital.


While the damage from these tornadoes will probably amount to just a few million dollars, their psychological toll will no doubt be high. At a lecture Tuesday at the American Meterological Society Annual Meeting, Dr. Anna Marie of the Weather Channel presented a talk titled, "Health Effects of 2005 Hurricanes". She presented results of a study that showed that 40% of the population of New Orleans was suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder. This is much higher than the 25 - 28% rate reported for the victims of Hurricane Andrew. A study of the psychological state of 2000 Katrina victims is being performed by the Harvard Medical School, and an update of their condition is due to be released in late February.

Are Category 4 and 5 hurrricanes increasing in frequency?
I heard the authors of the paper claiming this connection speak Tuesday at the American Meteorological Society conference, and they presented new evidence supporting their conclusion. However, Dr. Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center presented evidence disputing their conclusions. It will take me at least a week to incorporate the new material into the blog piece I'm working on about this, pardon the delay!

Jeff Masters



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108. TampaSteve
3:51 PM GMT on February 09, 2006
HurricaneMyles wrote:

"Yeah, yesterday's rain was amazing. That line of thunderstorms must have sat over the Tampa/St. Pete area for over 6 hours. I was just staring at it wondering when it was going to smash into us here in Ft. Myers. We got ours, but it did't stay over us for hours like it did Tampa, just a lot of heavy rain, lightning, and some gusty winds - nothing too out of the ordinary."

Yeah...that rain was something, wasn't it? We drove from Tampa out to Clearwater the next day, and there were flooded fields and parking lots all over the place. Reminded me of 2004 when Frances came through.
107. lightning10
2:12 PM GMT on February 06, 2006
Today there is a Red Flag Warning for most of Southern California. Its 6:10 AM already several reports of brush fires. Its going to be a long day. Yesterday it was 86 where I lived. Today 85
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
106. HurricaneMyles
1:05 PM GMT on February 06, 2006
Do you even really understand conservation of momentum works, or just read that simplified article and think it directly applies here? Because even though it may apply here, as it does anywhere in the universe except the singularity of a black hole, conservation of momentum is completely canceled out by the energy required to move the cold water as many feet as you would like above the warm water. Your best bet to make these things work by using pumps or something else that requires added energy, because I think its very apparant that you dont have enough by your princples alone.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
102. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
6:06 AM GMT on February 06, 2006
Good Night

YOU ALL COME ON BY MY BLOG AND DROP ME A POST I CAN DO SOME IN NEW ON MY BLOG SO COME ON BY AND SEE
101. haydn
4:49 AM GMT on February 06, 2006
I like the one in the storm the best.
100. Trouper415
4:48 AM GMT on February 06, 2006
Thats a good article. And congrats to Dr. Jeff who continuous his great work. I think even though the administration did not directly say they were going to make cutbacks and make amends witht he worlds treaty, I do think it was great progress for the government to even be mentioning the oil issue as they did. I think its going in the right direction and further progress will be seen.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
99. haydn
4:45 AM GMT on February 06, 2006
Thanks for the link. ....Interloper has said it all. ....basically "not gonna happen"
98. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
4:45 AM GMT on February 06, 2006
Hurricane
97. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
4:44 AM GMT on February 06, 2006
Mullet


Tongue
96. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
4:39 AM GMT on February 06, 2006
Hello
95. QueenEsther
4:37 AM GMT on February 06, 2006
Hey Dr. Jeff! The Houston Chronicle mentioend you in one of the paper's editorials today - here is the link:

Link

The editorial said:

Feb. 4, 2006, 1:34AM

Gagged prophet
The Bush administration continues to ignore climate change while trying to silence government scientists
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle

NASA's top climatologist, James E. Hansen, recently urged swift action to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to global warming. When he did, the agency's public affairs machinery went into overdrive.

NASA officials ordered Hansen to submit for review any lectures, Internet statements and journalists' requests for interviews. Hansen recently posted a widely quoted report on a NASA Web site stating that 2005 was the hottest year since comprehensive weather records were first kept.

A NASA political appointee, William Deutsch, nixed an interview with Hansen on National Public Radio. Deutsch reportedly told another NASA public affairs officer that NPR was "the most liberal media source" in the nation and that his job "was to make the president look good." If Deutsch said that, he is wrong. The job of government public affairs officials is to inform the public and make available public information.

Hansen, who holds a doctorate in physics, has been issuing warnings of the consequences of man-made pollution of the atmosphere for 15 years. He rightly refused to comply with the gag order. "They feel their job is to be this censor of information going out to the public," he told The New York Times, noting that "public concern is probably the only thing capable of overcoming the special interests that have obfuscated the topic." According to Hansen, many scientists within the government have been pressured to avoid public discussion of climate change.

Climatologist Jeff Masters, who blogs for the Weather Underground, denounced government censorship aimed at downplaying the dangers of global warming. "Our taxpayer salaried scientists should be free to speak out on more than just their scientific findings without the chilling oversight of politically appointed officials concerned with 'making the president look good.' Climate change is of critical importance ... and we should hear the opinions of those scientists who understand the issue the best."

The Hansen episode is just one more in a series of efforts by the Bush administration to maintain a position that global warming can be dealt with without imposing mandatory restrictions of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. U.S. emissions account for a quarter of the worldwide industrial output each year. After refusing to sign the Kyoto Protocol mandating such limits, the U.S. and Australian delegations at the recent Montreal climate conference stood aside while the world's other industrial nations moved to limit industrial emissions.

Last year a White House adviser on the environment rewrote scientific reports on climate change issued by the government. The aide, Philip A. Cooney, was a former lobbyist at the American Petroleum Institute, a oil industry group that has strenuously opposed mandatory emission regulation. After the controversy became public, Cooney left his White House position.

If President Bush's State of the Union speech is any indication, global warming is still tucked away in an administration policy deep freeze. While the president called for independence from Mideast oil and found time to discuss the threat of "human-animal hybrids," there was no mention of climate change or any plans to work with international partners to defuse its harmful effects.

If our elected leaders will not educate the public on the ominous dangers posed by global warming, then that responsibility falls to pre-eminent scientists such as NASA's James Hansen. It is essential to maintain their freedom of speech and ability to produce research untainted by partisan politics.


WAY TO GO!!
94. HurricaneMyles
4:31 AM GMT on February 06, 2006
The whole idea is flawed. He asks for it to be modelled, but it has been already. A guy at another webboard, who knows a lot more about that stuff then us, already did model it for him and showed it didnt work. Cyclonebuster tries to say the model is flawed because 'it says upwelling cant occur' when in reality the pressure difference between the two openings to the pipe dont create enough energy to overcome the density of the cold water trying to be forced above warm water. Hurricanes and cyclonebusters favorite, charelston hump, are competely different mechanisms for creating upwelling which add more energy then these tunnels.

Its a somewhat lengthy read, but no worse then a NHC report. Go here and you can read the whole thing.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
93. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
4:11 AM GMT on February 06, 2006
my blog is update
92. haydn
4:01 AM GMT on February 06, 2006
Any thoughts on what I have written.
91. haydn
3:59 AM GMT on February 06, 2006
Interesting....How is the end near the surface going to hold up to 25ft and greater seas in a storm? From what I have read, the cables that holds the tunnel needs to be strong. Katrina beat up some rigs pretty bad in the gulf. Also, waves don't extend to a great depth unless there is a tsunami and the tunnel is near shallow water. The top of this thing is going to get tossed around while the other end is pretty stationary. This thing has to have some tensile strength to it. That takes lots of steel and concrete. Since water is flowing through it it won't have the buoyancy of a boat. The material has to be less dense than water or use trapped air to suspend the tunnel in the water. Then cost....doesn't look good to me
90. ForecasterColby
3:43 AM GMT on February 06, 2006
Here's a post he made to TalkWeather [forgive the horrible format, it's a copy+paste]:

-----Original Message-----
From: Kerry Emanuel [mailto:@texmex.mit.edu]
Sent: Thursday, December 15, 2005 6:26 AM
To: Pat McNulty
Subject: RE: Pascal's and Bernoulli's principle weakens hurricanes

Pat: I have not had time to run calculations on your idea, but I do
not see an obvious reason why it might not work. The technical issue
would be with the volume of water required. Since you are effectively
mixing heat in ocean columns, you would be warming water at depth in
proportion to the surface cooling, and one should explore the
consequences of this.


As you may imagine, this past season's storms have renewed interest
in hurricane modification and quite a few proposals are being
fielded. I am working with some other faculty at MIT to initiate a
funding program for such proposals as yours; if we succeed I will let
you know and there would then be a mechanism for you to get funding
to work on this.

Yours, Kerry


At 01:36 PM 12/13/2005, you wrote:
>Kerry,
> This idea of mine keeps coming back to you. What do you suggest I do?
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Phil Klotzbach [mailto:philk@atmos.colostate.edu]
>Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2005 8:18 AM
>To: Pat McNulty
>Subject: Re: Pascal's and Bernoulli's principle weakens hurricanes
>
>Dear Pat,
>
>I would suggest contacting Kerry Emanuel at MIT:
>
>@texmex.mit.edu
>
>He is a brilliant dynamicist. If he cannot help you, he can probably point
>you in the right direction.
>
>Phil
>
>----------------------------------------------------
>Phil Klotzbach
>Research Associate
>Department of Atmospheric Science
>Colorado State University
>philk@atmos.colostate.edu
>Phone: (970) 491-8605
>-----------------------------------------------------
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Pat McNulty"
>To: "'Phil Klotzbach'"
>Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2005 11:03 AM
>Subject: RE: Pascal's and Bernoulli's principle weakens hurricanes
>
>
> > Who might those persons be?
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Phil Klotzbach [mailto:philk@atmos.colostate.edu]
> > Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2005 8:00 AM
> > To: Pat McNulty
> > Subject: Re: Pascal's and Bernoulli's principle weakens hurricanes
> >
> > Dear Pat,
> >
> > A couple of points:
> >
> > 1) When you submit a paper to a scientific journal, you don't cite
> > personal
> > references
> >
> > 2) I don't think I'm really the right person for you to be talking with,
> > since if you want constructive feedback, you should talk to someone who
> > has
> > a better dynamical view of hurricane genesis and intensification than I
> > do.
> > I mostly work with statistical prediction of tropical cyclones.
> >
> > Good luck with your idea.
> >
> > Phil
> >
> > ----------------------------------------------------
> > Phil Klotzbach
> > Research Associate
> > Department of Atmospheric Science
> > Colorado State University
> > philk@atmos.colostate.edu
> > Phone: (970) 491-8605
> > -----------------------------------------------------
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Pat McNulty"
> > To: "'Phil Klotzbach'"
> > Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2005 10:01 AM
> > Subject: RE: Pascal's and Bernoulli's principle weakens hurricanes
> >
> >
> >> Would you like to see results of computer modeling of the idea?
> >>
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: Phil Klotzbach [mailto:philk@atmos.colostate.edu]
> >> Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2005 6:22 AM
> >> To: Pat McNulty
> >> Subject: Re: Pascal's and Bernoulli's principle weakens hurricanes
> >>
> >> If you write up your idea and explain physically why it should work, they
> >> may publish it. We've had some papers rejected from both Science and
> >> Nature
> >>
> >> before, so it's no slam-dunk. But, if you want to see your idea go
> >> forward,
> >>
> >> it's worth a shot. That's about all the advice I have.
> >>
> >> Phil
> >>
> >> ----------------------------------------------------
> >> Phil Klotzbach
> >> Research Associate
> >> Department of Atmospheric Science
> >> Colorado State University
> >> philk@atmos.colostate.edu
> >> Phone: (970) 491-8605
> >> -----------------------------------------------------
> >>
> >>
> >
> >

______________________________________________

Kerry A. Emanuel Professor of Meteorology
Rm. 54-1620, MIT Phone: (617) 253-2462
77 Mass. Ave. Fax: (617) 324-0308
Cambridge, MA 02139 Email:
@texmex.mit.edu
Web:
http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/home.html


From: Michael Oppenheimer [mailtomichael@Princeton.EDU]
Sent: Saturday, November 12, 2005 4:40 AM
To: Pat McNulty
Subject: RE: Bernoulli's equation used to modify hurricanes and tornados's



Sounds plausible. Questions I would ask include the cost of construction, cost of maintaining the system, side effects to the local marine environment. Whether it actually would work ought to be tested with some modeling. You could contact Kerry Emanuel at MIT to see what he thinks of the possibility of modeling it to see if it actually works as envisioned.




---------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

From: Pat McNulty [mailto:stackgenerator@cableone.net]
Sent: Saturday, November 12, 2005 1:19 AM
To: 'Michael Oppenheimer'
Subject: RE: Bernoulli's equation used to modify hurricanes and tornados's



Here is how it will work. Anchor a large tunnel to the sea floor like a buoy but in several locations around the tunnel to hold it fast to the sea bed.
Position it to where one open end opposes the current at depth where the cool water is and the other open end at the surface faces away from the current. What happens is a difference in pressure is created at both ends and when a pressure difference is created flow occurs. That is the beauty of Bernoulli's principle. Cool water is bought up from below thus mixing with the warm water at the surface. The tunnel is neutrally buoyant with the top end just under the surface. Remember it can only work where there is a current. No current, no difference in pressure. Also, enough electricity can be generated for millions of people in Florida.

With the use of both of these principles combined no pumps are needed since the water will flow up the tunnel naturally. They can also be placed in the Yucatan and Caribbean currents thus cooling the Gulf of Mexico via the loop current thus saving the Gulf States, if placed SW of Key West They will save the whole East coast Of North America. The SSTs can be regulated to 70 to 80 degrees by the addition of a gate on the discharge end of the tunnel that regulates the flow of cool water flowing from them.

The idea does not eliminate the hurricanes it modifies them to a much weaker state no more than a catagory one by regulating the SSTs. The transfer of heat to the mid latitudes still occurs. The ocean temperature is regulated between 70 and 75 degrees and therefore as the storm crosses the cooler water it just weakens but it is not eliminated. BTW during the winter the temperature of the gulf is below 70 degrees so this should not harm sea life.
tornado's may not even form in the mid west because of the cooler temperatures in the Gulf thus cooling the warm air migrating to the North out of the Gulf Of Mexico. Since the air is cooler not as much lift is created in the atmosphere for tornados to form.

Pascal's principle:
F1 is the force of the gulf stream exerts on the mouth of the tunnel at depth.

http://www.scientia.org/cadonline/P...uids/pascal.ASP

Bernoulli's principle:
A negative pressure is created when the gulf stream rushs pass the exit of the tunnel near the surface.

http://theory.uwinnipeg.ca/mod_tech/node68.html

All I did was combine both principles together to make the thing work with the tunnel. Any thoughts?



Thanks,

Pat McNulty






---------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

From: Michael Oppenheimer [mailtomichael@Princeton.EDU]
Sent: Friday, October 28, 2005 12:52 PM
To: Pat McNulty
Subject: RE: Bernoulli's equation used to modify hurricanes and tornados's



Interesting idea. Let me think about it some more. Generally, I'm skeptical of geo-engineering but maybe you've got something here.




---------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

From: Pat McNulty [mailto:stackgenerator@cableone.net]
Sent: Thursday, October 27, 2005 7:56 PM
To: omichael@Princeton.EDU
Subject: Bernoulli's equation used to modify hurricanes and tornados's



Michael,

I have two neat ideas to modify hurricanes that will work physically. Bernoulli's Principle and underwater tunnels can weaken hurricanes just as the principle works on an airplanes wing creating lift. It works for fluids and gasses. They can create upwelling in the path of a storm thus weaken it. They can only work where a current exists such as the Gulf stream current or the Caribbean and Yucatan currents. The current that runs through the tunnels can be turned on or off and can restore proper temperatures to the oceans sea surface temperatures thus regulating them.

If placed in the proper locations these tunnels would reduce a hurricane or tornado's impact. It may even prevent a tornado from forming at all. These tunnels by product can produce enough electricity for the world without warming the planet. Wow imagine the effects when a billion more people buy cars and get electricity in just 15 years in China. Any thoughts??

This next email is from Hugh Willoughby.

http://www.ihc.fiu.edu/people/bios/willoughby.htm

As I wrote earlier, the loop current is hundreds of kilometers across and its position varies greatly from year to year. What makes the scoops not completely nuts as a proposal is the narrowness and fixed position of the Gulf Stream in the Straits and off Florida's SE coast. In terms of climatology, Greater Miami is the most vulnerable major city in the US. Only Miami has the configuration of a deep "western boundary" current directly offshore. Thus this scheme, if it proves feasible, would work only for Miami and only for Andrew-like storms. The city would remain vulnerable to late season storms, which approach from the SW, like WILMA

hew

From: "Pat McNulty"
Date: 2005/10/23 Sun AM 12:15:36 EDT
To:
Subject: RE: Scoops( Under water Tunnels) Isn't there
also a loop current in the central gulf? If so it may prevent one from
becoming organized and prevent rapid development thus the impact would
be less at landfall. Hopefully, ssts have been cooled by the other
storms this year. However, any big city that can be protected should be
protected if such technology exists. It is just going to get worse if
we just sit on our hands. I predict storms getting much worse than
they are now.


From: willough@fiu.edu [mailto:willough@fiu.edu]
Sent: Saturday, October 22, 2005 6:13 PM
To: Pat McNulty
Subject: Re: Scoops( Under water Tunnels)
Hugh,
I bet those tunnels are cost effective now???? ANY THOUGHTS?
Pat McNulty
89. haydn
3:38 AM GMT on February 06, 2006
Pandora is a nice site. Thanks for the link. I'm a pianist. .... bye Boloetse....Cyclonebuster, do you have a site that defines your tunnels. I have been reading past blogs and can't find where you fully describe the concept. I will have no opinion about the subject until I can look at some info.
88. ForecasterColby
3:17 AM GMT on February 06, 2006
Cyclone, you are not using the physics correctly. The tunnels may or may not work, but not all storms pass through the Gulf Stream anyway. Think Opal.
86. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
9:54 PM GMT on February 05, 2006
The Dome is going to be repaired and reoccupied! YEA
85. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
9:49 PM GMT on February 05, 2006
ForecasterColby the links you give me where the links to dr jeff blog lol
84. ForecasterColby
9:43 PM GMT on February 05, 2006
www.theahc.webhop.net is my site.

Not really weather related, but for those of you kind of into music, check out this site.
83. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
9:30 PM GMT on February 05, 2006
ForecasterColby link to your web sits and tell me where to go
82. ForecasterColby
9:22 PM GMT on February 05, 2006
For those of you who like to make your own prediction maps, I've made a nice tracking map for the GOM. It's up at my site (it's hosted on imageshack, and the bandwidth would run out real fast here)
81. ForecasterColby
9:05 PM GMT on February 05, 2006
LOL Inyo!

How often have Atlantic tropical storms (not counting extratropical remnants like Delta) hit Africa?

I do not believe that an atlantic storm has ever hit africa while tropical. Indian Ocean storms occasionally hit the eastern African coast, however.
80. Califonia
9:03 PM GMT on February 05, 2006


Posted By: HurryCane at 2:19 PM CST on February 05, 2006.

Hey you forgot about the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Our towns are just as devastated and we are also suffering from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder and mold allergies and depression and a host of other maladies. One of which is... Being Forgotten...


I agree, HurryCane, although I'm not sure anything would change if those here WERE more informed.

Perhaps you could post on a regular basis... info on what happened in various cities / communities, as well as current issues / progress / problems.

You have the power to keep them from being forgotten here on Wunderground. :)

79. Inyo
9:00 PM GMT on February 05, 2006
oh darn now we have to stick a bunch of tunnels off the Africa coast too
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
78. HurryCane
8:22 PM GMT on February 05, 2006
Hey you forgot about the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Our towns are just as devastated and we are also suffering from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder and mold allergies and depression and a host of other maladies. One of which is being forgotten...
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 27 Comments: 30
77. Skyepony (Mod)
7:20 PM GMT on February 05, 2006
Today the cmc has jumped on board as the most intense in it's forcast, for our possible 1st STD or TD of the season. The 12ZNogaps is quickest to develop at 48hrs. 12Zcmc, 00Zukmet & 12Zgfs all call for development around 60hrs. The gfs (again) & ukmet have shifted slightly more toward the NW coast of Africa. If this trend to move development east continues & into reality, we wouldn't see a TD as it would be too close to land to develope. Also the 72hr SST forecast. Before last year we didn't think warm core systems would form with these SST. Shows how little we know.

I'll hold at my 45% chance.

Colby~ Ya beat NWS on a discussion by only an hour. Way to not jump the gun, and still look way on top of it:) But no one plays it down quite like Blake.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
76. Skyepony (Mod)
6:54 PM GMT on February 05, 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 05 2006

UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLC WITH
DIFFLUENCE INCREASING OVER THE ITCZ. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEING FUNNELED FROM A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET FROM NEAR TRINIDAD
TO 6N46W TO NE ACROSS THE CAPE VERDES. TRADES ARE AT
NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS IN THE W ATLC BUT REDUCED IN THE E ATLC DUE
TO THE FRONT'S PRESENCE. BELOW AVERAGE TRADES SHOULD CONTINUE
IN THE E ATLC FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS A CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST
TO FORM.
$$
BLAKE
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
75. gippgig
6:24 PM GMT on February 05, 2006
How often have Atlantic tropical storms (not counting extratropical remnants like Delta) hit Africa?
Member Since: December 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 64
74. ForecasterColby
5:05 PM GMT on February 05, 2006
I've issued a discussion on our developing storm.

Tropical Weather Discussion
Amateur Hurricane Center
www.theahc.webhop.net
Tropical Weather Discussion - Noon February 5, 2006

The GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS all agree now on the development of a symmetric warm-core low in the eastern atlantic in the next couple of days. The system is shown developing just south of the Azores, and moving southeast through the Cape Verdes islands and on towards Africa. Needless to say, it seems unlikely - but when all the models agree in such a way, it's hard to argue. Stay tuned.
73. ForecasterColby
4:52 PM GMT on February 05, 2006
Models now showing a warm-core system *rolls eyes*

GFS
NOGAPS
UKMET
72. ProgressivePulse
8:29 AM GMT on February 05, 2006
All models still point to Alberto Middle of the week, interesting to see if it materializes.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5396
71. Inyo
8:24 AM GMT on February 05, 2006
the monsoon was late last year but it wasn't la nina. also i know although it was late it was rather wet, at least on the california end.

and i read somewhere that most monsoon moisture comes from the gulf of mexico, not the gulf of CA. thus the cooling pacific temperatures have less of an effect on the monsoon than the warming atlantic and increased hurricane activity. but i'm not sure on this. i dont believe the la nina --- monsoon link is strong either way and la nina may be gone by august anyway.

but la nina might favor more monsoon in New Mexico and less in California... i'm not sure.
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
70. ProgressivePulse
7:49 AM GMT on February 05, 2006
For sure Skye, I am a card player and I would fold for sure.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5396
69. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
4:06 AM GMT on February 05, 2006
Link


her is some news i would like ever one to take a look at and at this time 2006 is not looking to good so is any one see this like drop me a e mail or drop me a post in my blog
68. HurricaneMyles
3:47 AM GMT on February 05, 2006
Yeah, yesterday's rain was amazing. That line of thunderstorms must have sat over the Tampa/St. Pete area for over 6 hours. I was just staring at it wondering when it was going to smash into us here in Ft. Myers. We got ours, but it did't stay over us for hours like it did Tampa, just a lot of heavy rain, lightning, and some gusty winds - nothing too out of the ordinary.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
67. ForecasterColby
3:35 AM GMT on February 05, 2006
Oh and one more thing - yesterday was the fourth wettest ever in Tampa.
66. ForecasterColby
3:34 AM GMT on February 05, 2006
Ahh, teh broken link of doom!

www.theahc.webhop.net
65. ForecasterColby
3:25 AM GMT on February 05, 2006
And on the developing system in the Atlantic, stay tuned:

theahc.webhop.net
64. ForecasterColby
3:21 AM GMT on February 05, 2006
Well, just to add some more good news

The new-born La Nina is taking effect:

63. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
2:59 AM GMT on February 05, 2006
i hop this is the last we see of Tropical Cyclone Boloetse i am geting try of see this how mean time now?
62. Skyepony (Mod)
1:07 AM GMT on February 05, 2006
Yeah ProgressivePulse, quite active around NW Africa, particularily last month. Storms would keep forming off the tails' of cold fronts, but right on top of them. If it keeps up we shouldn't see the dust we did last year.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
61. FtWaltonBch2Tucson
11:31 PM GMT on February 04, 2006
The monsoon was a full three weeks late last year marking the second lastest start here in Tucson. I don't know if the stats are quite the same for y'all in SoCal.
Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
60. lightning10
11:09 PM GMT on February 04, 2006
Inyo I agree with what you said. Once there is a Santa Ana Wind event if feals that dry weather stays around for weeks. I hope we will see 2-3 weeks at best of some rain/thunderstroms mybe a low pressure or two will cut off from the jet stream and pic up some moisture from the tropics. I remember the April 1st surprise thunderstorms rolled into the San Gabriel valley and Mountains. I remember that day cause I remember are city got the most rain that day. What I would like to see happen is another March Merical thow the odds are rather slim for that one this year.

As for summer I thoguht a weak La Nina kills off the monsoon. With the cooler then average water temps in the Pacific it kills of a lot of the moisture before high pressure can pic it up. As for last year it was the 2nd latest time in the summer before the monsoon kicked up. I might be wrong on that.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
59. ProgressivePulse
10:01 PM GMT on February 04, 2006
Pretty crazy looking at those models skye! Bet the people in NW africa and surrounding provinces would be rather amazed. Quite active around those parts lately.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5396
58. FtWaltonBch2Tucson
9:45 PM GMT on February 04, 2006
I'll second your prediction of a dry Febuary, Inyo. I don't expect that we'll get much of anything this month (though if we do, Murphy's Law says it'll be between the 15th and the 21st during Estrella War (huge re-enactment event just outside Phoenix. 7000-10,000 person camping event.))

I personally don't think we will be getting any real rain here if it doesn't come in Febuary until July. Even in a good year, the weather patterns just don't favour moisture in the spring here.
Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 21

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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