No Alberto--and where's winter?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:38 PM GMT on January 11, 2006

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No Alberto
A large non-tropical low pressure system is about 500 miles off of the Atlantic coast of Africa, and is located about midway between the Canary and Cape Verde Islands. This low has weakened in the past day, and has developed only a small amount of deep convection, mostly east of the center. The low is forecast to slow drift southward and continue to weaken, and very high levels of wind shear are expected to move over the low by Friday. Thus, it appears very unlikely that this low will develop into Tropical Storm Alberto. Forecast models show no other tropical storm threats developing over the next week, as high wind shear dominates the Atlantic basin.

Where's winter?
Those of us living in the eastern 2/3 of North America are wondering--where's winter? After unusually early and severe winter weather gripped the region from late November through mid-December, a very warm weather pattern has brought delight to those of us dreading high natural gas bills this winter--but despair to the skiiers. There is cold air out there this winter--but it's in Asia, and not headed our way anytime soon.

New Delhi, India saw its coldest winter morning in 70 years on Sunday as the temperature plummeted to 0.2 degrees Celsius (32.4 Fahrenheit). Pakistan and the hard-hit quake areas of Kashmir are experiencing their coldest winter in a decade, and China Daily calls the current winter in China the coldest in 20 years. In Japan, a month of heavy storms has piled snow up to three meters high in some areas, and at least 63 people have died and over 1,000 have been injured because of the snow. Many of the dead were elderly people who fell from their roofs while trying to clear snow, while others were crushed when their houses collapsed under the snow's weight.

When is this pattern going to break? According the the GFS model, no major shifts in the winter pattern are expected in the next two weeks. Asia will stay cold. A succession of rain storms will move across the northern half of the U.S. the remainder of January, with only a brief day or two of cold air moving in behind these storms. Eastern North America may have to wait until February before more normal winter weather returns and Asia gets a break.

Jeff Masters

chitral (jamshed)
Chitral- recent snowfall
chitral
Harbin Ice and Snow World 1 Lighting up time (websterish)
Harbin holds an annual Ice and Snow festival. These photos show part of the displays. The theme is Russian architecture with many of the structures being replicas of those around Moscows Red Square. All buildings built of ice with lights inside to create the colour. Buddha is built of snow. They are huge!!!
Harbin Ice and Snow World 1 Lighting up time

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135. KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta
7:40 PM GMT on January 13, 2006
Tropical Storm Jose update is out by the nhc this to yet you all no
134. Cregnebaa
1:49 PM GMT on January 12, 2006
Sorry chaser just saw your post, I'm a bit slower at typing I think
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 323
132. Cregnebaa
1:47 PM GMT on January 12, 2006
Cyclonebuster

Although many aspects of your idea are ingenius, the risks of upsetting the gulf stream or redirecting it could have tragic effects in Europe. Even southern Europe is at the same latitude as NYC and enjoys far milder weather. A cooling of even a couple of degrees could cause crop failures across Europe!

Also Global warming is a natural phase our planet goes through, trying to counter it what would the long term effects be.

As for hurricanes aren't they the way heat is transfered from the equator to the poles, stopping extremes of temperatures between the two?

What about the other countries in the Carribean or Central America, do we just not bother with them?

Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 323
131. hurricanechaser
1:41 PM GMT on January 12, 2006
OK everyone,

I finished my latest blog early this morning, and I need to try and get some more sleep before work this afternoon.

I hope each and everyone of you has a wonderful day.:)

Your friend,
Tony


130. hurricanechaser
1:37 PM GMT on January 12, 2006
Hey TPAUL,

I totally agree as most can certainly attest to.:)

Great post in my humble opinion.:)

Thanks,
Tony
129. TPaul
1:37 PM GMT on January 12, 2006
cyclonebuster, I have yet to see the basic math for your idea. You don't need MIT to model it for you, you should be able to do those basic kind of calculations yourself and I am being serious about that. You would basicly need to cool a surface area say slightly larger then the diameter of the hurricane. Let me do some math and I will put up my results.
Member Since: May 2, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 111
128. hurricanechaser
1:35 PM GMT on January 12, 2006
Hey everyone,

I need to add one further contribution to this discussion involving hurricane modification. I believe both Colby, Progressive, and others have pretty much covered the unknown consequences of attempting such a drastic measure suggested by cyclonebuster, although I respect his good intentions.

Very basic principle, Hurricanes are simply one of the Earth's ways to keep our atmosphere in balance by transferring the enormous heat from the tropics to the mid- latitudes and polar regions of the World.

Simply put, no more hurricanes, most likely far worse consequences.

Once again, there will not be any NATURAL global warming that will have a significant effect on these storms or breed these cataclysmic events that many want to propose on the Global warming issue fueled by scare tactics and an extensive array of propaganda.

This is just my personal opinion...NO MORE AND CERTAINLY NO LESS.:)

Thanks,
Tony


127. TPaul
1:32 PM GMT on January 12, 2006
Ok, I think some things need to be cleared up. Global warming and global cooling are naturally occuring processes. Yes, human civilization may have some impact on the temperature regulation of the planet but global warming would be occuring now even if we were not here. And you best believe we will have global cooling again which is far worse. Actually there is a report out now in Nature I believe that was reported on NPR that trees give off methane at a pretty significant rate which has not been taken into account with all the discussion on human impacted global warming. The main point being there is still more we do not understand about global warming then we do.
Member Since: May 2, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 111
126. dcw
11:27 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
"So what kind of impact do you expect from a normal traveling Hurricane @ 10 to 15 mph over a short distance as the gulf stream?

That is what I am trying to get modeled at MIT. No one will model it for me.What are they afraid of?"

Maybe they just think it isn't feasable...wonder why.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
125. ProgressivePulse
8:12 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
Not to mention, a half a catgory strength does not make much of a difference "est. weakness over time & distance" and the warm waters on the other side would induce a strengthening stage.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
124. bigdrvr
8:08 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
Keep heating!! I wish I would never have to feel anything below 65 degrees ever again...Here In Jacksonville it has been too cool...Every year I anticipate the return of summer so I can bake in 90+ temps every day.

I have to say I disagree with any idea to "modify" the ocean temps with anything...nature will seek its balance else where. Too much unknown here. If we want to modify something, warm the atmosphere up so we don't have to deal with ice storms..
123. ProgressivePulse
7:51 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
Ya know you would be bringing a convergence zone in one of the worlds main trunklines.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
122. ProgressivePulse
7:47 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
Not to mention the transfer of deep ocean currents.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
121. ProgressivePulse
7:45 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
Now you are naturally cooling, cooled waters by Man and by Hurricane.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
120. ProgressivePulse
7:40 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
The Global Climate Impact Cyclone, the migration habits of fish and mammals "They will adversly respond to a drastic temp drop" including the salinity of the water. I woulden't support you either without many studies and more studies. The gulf stream holds a great "BALANCE" I stress the word balance beacuse things go hand in hand. You lower the temp of the surface you would have to lower the temp of the sea floor to keep the 4mph, moreso beacuse the water you just pumped up has a much lower salinity than the water it replaces. Hurricanes do this naturally and a say a cat 4 cane as it reaches your tunnel stream will maintain cat 4 upweling well through and stir up much colder waters, may weaken but, the path of much colder water continues on.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
117. ProgressivePulse
7:15 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
And again your talking about global impact, you think you aren't but you are, so I would want to see again your Thesius and hummm maybe 2 of them. Plus at least 10 years of study on the enviornmental impacts.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
116. ProgressivePulse
7:13 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
So what kind of impact do you expect from a normal traveling Hurricane @ 10 to 15 mph over a short distance as the gulf stream?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
114. ProgressivePulse
7:05 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
You can't use old temps, currents are maintained in a balance between the 2.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
113. ProgressivePulse
7:04 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
You do know that you are pumping water with a much lower salt content from the ocean floor than from the surface right?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
111. ProgressivePulse
7:00 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
You say you will get the temps back to what they should be, BUT, What is the temperature to properly maintain the current?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
108. ProgressivePulse
6:56 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
Your not introducing water that is the same temperature and it will not have the salinity that warmer water has, that is why it sinks". Water cools as it travels over the gulf stream, screw up the salinity and your going to screw up the currents.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
107. ProgressivePulse
6:51 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
Cooling occurs naturally as the water flows north, don't shoot the messanger I am simply pulling this off the net as we talk.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
106. ProgressivePulse
6:49 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
The statement says that global warming cools the gulf stream in the north atlantic. Cooling already cooling waters.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
104. ProgressivePulse
6:47 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
the water becomes so cold and dense that it begins to sink down through warmer, less salty and less dense water.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
102. ProgressivePulse
6:43 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
You want to try to control those processes, let me know, I want to see your theisus on this subject.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
101. ProgressivePulse
6:41 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
As it travels north, the warm water transported by the Gulf Stream undergoes two processes, evaporative cooling and brine exclusion. The first of these processes is wind driven: wind moving over the water cools it and also causes evaporation, leaving a saltier brine. In this process, the water increases in salinity and density, and decreases in temperature. The second process involves the formation of sea ice, which likewise increases the salinity of the brine solution and, thereby, decreases its freezing point. These two processes produce water that is denser and colder (or, more exactly, water that is still liquid at a colder temperature). In the North Atlantic Ocean, the water becomes so cold and dense that it begins to sink down through warmer, less salty and less dense water. (The convective action is not unlike that of a lava lamp.) This downdraft of heavy, cold and dense water becomes a part of the North Atlantic Deep Water, a southgoing stream.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
100. ProgressivePulse
6:37 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
The effect of global warming
Main articles: Effects of global warming#Shutdown of thermohaline circulation, and [[{{{2}}}]], and [[{{{3}}}]], and [[{{{4}}}]], and [[{{{5}}}]]
There is some speculation that global warming could decrease or shutdown thermohaline circulation. This would trigger localised cooling in the North Atlantic and lead to cooling, or lesser warming, in that region, affecting in particular areas like Scandinavia and Britain that are warmed by the North Atlantic drift. The chances of this occurring are unclear.

This statement is in reference to the Gulf Stream.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
97. ProgressivePulse
6:30 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
How much has the Gulf Stream raised in Temp? Or are you basing this on the atl and Glf SST's?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
96. ProgressivePulse
6:29 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
Even running 9 days cyclone, it still has an impact on the temps of the water.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
94. ProgressivePulse
6:26 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
And they will want facts, facts and more facts. OK we in the US are going to start a system that will limit our Hurricane's but, we don't know how it will impact your climate, will you support us "NO".
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
93. ProgressivePulse
6:24 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
You bring something like this to the table, you will have to have many contries involved.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
92. ProgressivePulse
6:22 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
And what imapact does that 9 days have on the water tepms in Northern Europe??
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
91. ProgressivePulse
6:20 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
How does that pan out with several storms a year? I can name 3 that approached the SFL coast and one that lasted for more than a week. You are trying to disrupt a natural current which has global impact, have you done global research?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
89. ProgressivePulse
6:00 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
The one closest to Cape Hatteras is entraining very warm Gulf Stream waters on its northwest circumference. I think they would be upset at the cooler temperatures.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
88. ProgressivePulse
5:57 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
So if the waters are cooler you ruin the climate in Nothern Europe.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
87. ProgressivePulse
5:56 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
Sorry have to put this in Bold Even though the current cools as the water travels thousands of miles, it remains strong enough to moderate the Northern European climate.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
86. ProgressivePulse
5:55 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
The Gulf Stream is one of the strong ocean currents that carries warm water from the sunny tropics to higher latitudes. The current stretches from the Gulf of Mexico up the East Coast of the United States, departs from North America south of the Chesapeake Bay, and heads across the Atlantic to the British Isles. The water within the Gulf Stream moves at the stately pace of 4 miles per hour. Even though the current cools as the water travels thousands of miles, it remains strong enough to moderate the Northern European climate.

The image above was derived from the infrared measurements of the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on a nearly cloud-free day over the east coast of the United States. The coldest waters are shown as purple, with blue, green, yellow, and red representing progressively warmer water. Temperatures range from about 7 to 22 degrees Celsius.

The core of the Gulf Stream is very apparent as the warmest water, dark red. It departs from the coast at Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The cool, shelf water from the north entrains the warmer outflows from the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays. The north wall of the Gulf Stream reveals very complex structure associated with frontal instabilities that lead to exchanges between the Gulf Stream and inshore waters. Several clockwise-rotating warm core eddies are evident north of the core of the Gulf Stream, which enhance the exchange of heat and water between the coastal and deep ocean. Cold core eddies, which rotate counter clockwise, are seen south of the Gulf Stream. The one closest to Cape Hatteras is entraining very warm Gulf Stream waters on its northwest circumference. Near the coast, shallower waters have warmed due to solar heating, while the deeper waters offshore are markedly cooler (dark blue). MODIS made this observation on May 8, 2000, at 11:45 a.m. EDT.

For more information, see the MODIS-Ocean web page.

The sea surface temperature image was created at the University of Miami using the 11- and 12-micron bands, by Bob Evans, Peter Minnett, and co-workers.

Recommend this Image to a Friend

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Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
85. ProgressivePulse
5:54 AM GMT on January 12, 2006
OK so normally the current cools as it travels to Europe. Lets use logic here, so if the tunnels produce cooler waters to begin with then it will be MUCH colder when it reaches Europe. "MYTH BUSTED"
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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