Atlantic Disturbance 96L (Interim Update)

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:46 PM GMT on August 23, 2014

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(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

Over the past few hours, a low level circulation appears to be developing in the vicinity of 21°N/73°W (near Great Inagua Island) based on both RECON reports and high resolution VIS imagery loops.

While there is some convection developing close to this circulation feature, and there have been A/C sampled wind reports of gale force– it’s probably a ‘toss-up’ whether NHC will officially ‘call’ this Tropical Storm Cristobal within the next couple of hours – or wait for additional convection and confirmation that this is in fact, the development of a definitive circulation center. Regardless of classification, the central circulation is moving Northwestward at about 15Kts, and will be moving into the central Bahamas on Sunday with tropical storm conditions.

There continues to be significant variations among all the models on the future evolution of this cyclone, but the general consensus is that the storms’ forward motion will slow during the next 24-48 hours as steering currents weaken in response to the weak TROF off the east coast that extends southward towards the NW Bahamas. At the same time, a slow but steady increase in intensity appears likely, with the storm reaching the NW Bahamas by late Monday.

The threat of CAT 1 hurricane conditions anywhere from southern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic coast continues – though this is certainly not a forgone conclusion as several reliable models continue to forecast the storm to turn northward and then northeastward by Monday and Tues, remaining well offshore without making landfall - paralleling the east coast from Florida to North Carolina.

Elsewhere in the Tropical Atlantic...

A broad, large scale easterly wave located in the central Atlantic is moving westward with little shower activity, while a strong disturbance has moved off the African coast and is also moving westward at ~20Kts. This second disturbance bears monitoring – but at this time, is unlikely to develop for at least the next 5 or more days.



Fig 1: VIS imagery loops show a general low level circulation center near 21N°/73°W and has been confirmed by RECON over the past 2 hours. The system is now moving Northwestward at 18Kts.


I’ll have a complete update late Sunday morning.

Steve Gregory


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1701. forecaster1
1:56 PM GMT on August 25, 2014
I still think so but I miss judged the frontal interference. I am probably off by 24 hrs.. :)Quoting 1695. FOREX:

Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
1700. georgevandenberghe
6:38 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 1479. sar2401:

For the Gulf Coast, however, tropical storms are major sources of summer rainfall. Not having the average number of tropical storms in the Gulf leads to the recurrent droughts we've seen from Texas to Georgia. It's been a big problem for agriculture. The lack of storms also leads to heat waves like we're having now. Without tropical storms, we don't get back building of sediment in the barrier islands, so the barrier islands get more eroded each year. I'm not wishing destruction on anyone (especially me) but we do need tropical storms in the Gulf and we are way below average on those over the last 8 years.

You're right on all of these points.
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 18 Comments: 1832
1699. scottsvb
5:32 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 1696. guygee:

Decoupling or re-organizing?




More of a decoupling.......... the LLC is feeling more of the ridging sticking out thus moving more w or wnw at 5mph. You can clearly see the main MLC further SE. Now this DOESN'T mean the storm will come to Florida, just that its moving wnw but will turn NW-NNW once convection refires later this evening. Now if enough drier air moves further south from off NE florida, it could slide more wnw than expected and what the models show, so if you are hoping for that 5% chance for this to make landfall N of say 28N..you have to hope the LLC moves more W and doesn't develop at least till monday evening.
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1698. hydrus
5:12 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Cape Verde Islands may get a T.C.

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21433
1697. SouthFLNative
5:00 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Looks like any systems that move toward the Leeward Islands and PR will not make it very far west with all of these early season troughs digging far south. October in the Caribbean may be any possible threat to the US.
Member Since: February 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
1696. guygee
4:56 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Decoupling or re-organizing?

Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1695. FOREX
4:54 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 1692. forecaster1:

I think we will have an upgrade by this evening and we will find the center to be located around 22 and 73...........moving near due west by then. The storm is on the wrong end of the front for much northerly movement....
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
1694. Sfloridacat5
4:52 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
NHC's 11am Forecast Cone looks very similar to the 8am Cone keeping Christobal well off the Eastcoast.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7433
1693. forecaster1
4:50 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
I also think as long as the mysterious Hurricane vanishing weapon is used we could have a Cat 3 out of this when all is said and done, etc...:)
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
1692. forecaster1
4:47 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
I think we will have an upgrade by this evening and we will find the center to be located around 22 and 73...........moving near due west by then. The storm is on the wrong end of the front for much northerly movement....
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
1691. Hurricanes101
4:46 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 1687. MiamiHurricanes09:

I'm already favoring the MLC simply due to the fact that it's situated under rather deep convection.


I would think if that is the case, then the forecast tracks are for the most part wrong.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7826
1690. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:45 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1689. JrWeathermanFL
4:45 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
I think the LLC is getting ejected to the north, and the MLC is staying with some waning convection.
The MLC then would have to work down to the surface.

How would, if this pans out, impact things??
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2457
1688. DeepSeaRising
4:44 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Anticyclone now outrunning Crystobal. Clearly the northern portion feeling the pull of the trough but with the COC now in question, whether or not there is a COC or if the mid level has taken over and a new COC has yet to reform; makes me wonder if the outrunning anticyclone will have any eastward affect on Crystobal's path. Models have come together nicely, but with no well defined COC, that could change.
Member Since: January 31, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 640
1687. MiamiHurricanes09
4:44 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 1681. Hurricanes101:

If the LLC gets ejected northward and the convection stays south with the MLC, then this could have a big impact on the track and the modles are basically useless again lol
I'm already favoring the MLC simply due to the fact that it's situated under rather deep convection.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1686. wunderweatherman123
4:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
GFS has the MJO staying in the atlantic for the first 2 week september. has 3 tropical storms active in 2 weeks. would bring the total to 7
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1725
1685. WIBadgerWeather
4:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 16:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Cristobal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 02

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 16:30Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 20.4N 69.7W
Location: 118 miles (190 km) to the SE (128°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In clouds all the time (continuous instrument meteorological conditions)
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -16°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -16°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Overcast / Undercast
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,580 geopotential meters
Member Since: April 28, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 416
1684. wunderweatherman123
4:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 1683. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The GFS looks too fast with genesis after the tropical wave exits the coast, but the overall pattern would favor a quick latitude gain.
sorry Cody but I would disagree with you there. yeah it's strong way too fast but the general steering is west. if it emerges south of the CV islands that is. if it's further north then yeah your right
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1725
1683. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:38 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 1679. wunderweatherman123:

either model has it too far north because a hurricane or CV is pretty much impossible. northern bias i guess

The GFS looks too fast with genesis after the tropical wave exits the coast, but the overall pattern would favor a quick latitude gain.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32287
1682. JrWeathermanFL
4:38 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
It's amazing the destruction that storms can cause.
Not because people are dying, but because weather is powerful enough to take property and life away.

The power of weather is stunning.
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2457
1681. Hurricanes101
4:37 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
If the LLC gets ejected northward and the convection stays south with the MLC, then this could have a big impact on the track and the modles are basically useless again lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7826
1680. sar2401
4:37 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting VegasRain:
Wait a minute here.. I'm seeing the center of circulation of Christobal in the lower levels at about 24.5N and 73.0W. 11AM Advisory shows 23.6N 73.1W.. This just seems way off from what the 11AM advisory shows.

Tell me I am wrong, and show me why the storm is not actually a full degree to the North of where the NHC says it is.

Looking at it on water vapor, I don't see any clear evidence of a center at 24N. It looks like some clump of convection has moved off from the storm to the north but I've also never been able to identify the center of a weak system from any kind of satellite image. Might also be some interaction between the storm and the front going on.

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1679. wunderweatherman123
4:35 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 1667. unknowncomic:

More action after Cristobal.

either model has it too far north because a hurricane or CV is pretty much impossible. northern bias i guess
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1725
1678. washingtonian115
4:35 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 1667. unknowncomic:

More action after Cristobal.

Dolly?.Is that you!?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17097
1677. SevoReb
4:33 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
So are we in agreement that the TROF is extending further south than originally anticipated, causing TS Cristobal to head NNE earlier?
Member Since: August 21, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
1676. LBAR
4:32 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 1660. MiamiHurricanes09:

Let's just admire it for a second.




I became fascinated with hurricanes as a young boy because I wanted to know how something that looked so beautiful would cause so much damage. Marie is a beauty for sure.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 242
1675. StormJunkie
4:32 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 1664. JrWeathermanFL:



Has some good convective activity..
There's about 3 different places a center could be though...


Think there are only two places. LLC off to the N...And the MLC which is lagging behind in the Bahamas. Would be interested in hearing a more expert opinion on the matter though.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1674. Articuno
4:30 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 1668. WaterWitch11:

we had a earthquake patrap and i feel like crying...grateful it wasn't as bad as it could have been

http://www.ktvu.com

Glad you're okay.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2465
1673. guygee
4:29 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 1631. BahaHurican:

Sure does look in the visible sat loop like the LLC is running quickly Nward away from the convection .... impacts undeclared...
Reminds me of young Arthur ...*These aren't the vortices you were looking for". The entire general circulation is elongated and another center will become apparent. Continuity will be maintained.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3171
1672. Chicklit
4:29 PM GMT on August 24, 2014


off to make a photo album for my son of his earlier years.
He turns thirty this week and I've got to get it expressed mailed out tomorrow.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
1671. BahaHurican
4:28 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 1668. WaterWitch11:

we had a earthquake patrap and i feel like crying...grateful it wasn't as bad as it could have been

http://www.ktvu.com
Glad to see you are okay... though perhaps rather "shaken up"....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
1670. ncstorm
4:27 PM GMT on August 24, 2014

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 13m

GFS a bit further west before going out. Still has energy escaping ne out of storm, which caused large e bias last night. ECMWF better
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15704
1669. WIBadgerWeather
4:27 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 1642. sunlinepr:




What a storm.
Member Since: April 28, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 416
1668. WaterWitch11
4:26 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
we had a earthquake patrap and i feel like crying...grateful it wasn't as bad as it could have been

http://www.ktvu.com
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1641
1667. unknowncomic
4:26 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
More action after Cristobal.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2048
1666. Chicklit
4:25 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
And finally, consensus at least in general direction away from FL Peninsula.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
1665. VegasRain
4:23 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Wait a minute here.. I'm seeing the center of circulation of Christobal in the lower levels at about 24.5N and 73.0W. 11AM Advisory shows 23.6N 73.1W.. This just seems way off from what the 11AM advisory shows.

Tell me I am wrong, and show me why the storm is not actually a full degree to the North of where the NHC says it is.

Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 540
1664. JrWeathermanFL
4:21 PM GMT on August 24, 2014


Has some good convective activity..
There's about 3 different places a center could be though...
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2457
1663. Hurricane1216
4:21 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Here's a disorganized Cristobal on the latest ISS pass.
Member Since: March 3, 2012 Posts: 15 Comments: 310
1662. Closedeyes
4:19 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
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1661. Melagoo
4:18 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Wow nice looking storm Marie

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1578
1660. MiamiHurricanes09
4:18 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Let's just admire it for a second.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1659. BahaHurican
4:16 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Say, does anybody know if LRandyB is going to be updating his blog this year? So far he has no entries for 2014....

:o/
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
1658. hurricanes2018
4:14 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Hurricane Marie
Pressure: 929 mb wow!!

Last Updated Aug 24, 2014 1500 GMT
Location 16.0N 111.4W Movement WNW
Wind 150 MPH
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 54185
1657. hurricanes2018
4:12 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
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1656. hurricanes2018
4:12 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
we finally see our first Category 5 with winds 160 mph later today
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 54185
1655. hurricanes2018
4:11 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
how about California quake 6 ??
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 54185
1654. BahaHurican
4:10 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 1647. MiamiHurricanes09:

Let's see what Recon finds when it gets to 04L. The difference between the circulation being at 22N and 24N could have major track implications.
Looks like recon has about 15 more minutes to Cristobal....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
1653. Sfloridacat5
4:10 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
12z GFS at 123 hours (we have a long time to watch this system)
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1652. Barefootontherocks
4:10 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
USGS Tectonic summary of this morning's 6.1 near Napa, CA - which document I now see Neo quoted earlier. LPL
(Hi Neo!)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18769
1651. Chicklit
4:10 PM GMT on August 24, 2014
Someone mentioned Sandy earlier. While looking through my bookmarks I found this.

Sorry...29 OCT 12
Most of us know she was not classified as a hurricane which in itself caused a stir.
Link Animation
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.