Atlantic Disturbance 96L (Interim Update)

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:35 PM GMT on August 22, 2014

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(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

Aside from the increase in convection along with the development of a high level anti-cyclone above the lower level circulation today, there has been little additional development of 96L.

Based on the latest RECON data, along with radar and satellite imagery, the broad area of Low pressure is currently located over Mona Pass near 19N/68W and will be approaching the northeastern tip of the Dominican Republic soon as the system continues on an essentially westward track at near 20Kts. The lowest surface pressure is estimated near 1007mb and the strongest observed winds are near tropical storm (gale) force in a small area to the northeast of the primary circulation.

The latest global model runs continue to call for the developing cyclone to move along or just off the northern coast of Hispaniola overnight, and then slow its forward movement on Saturday as it moves into the lower Bahamas. Once in this region, and some distance away from the high terrain of Hispaniola, the system should be able to spin-up a core circulation and attain tropical storm intensity in 24-36 hours.

With the east-west orientated sub-tropical ridge over the SW Atlantic still forecast to weaken in vicinity of the Bahamas by early Sunday, the system should see it’s forward movement slow even further as it begins to turn northwestward and then northward by late Sunday or by Monday. While there continues to be significant uncertainty on this development, the fairly good continuity among the more reliable models on both the track and intensity forecasts suggests reasonably good confidence that the cyclone will turn northward and ultimately take a track that takes the system out to sea without serious impact to the US mainland next week. Of course, as with any tropical system still in the formative stages, along with the potential for subtle changes in the actual location and strength of the sub-tropical ridge & steering flow – significant uncertainty in the ultimate track and intensity remains.

Elsewhere across the Tropical Atlantic

There is another large scale easterly wave - but with little convection - approaching the central Atlantic along 35W, and a somewhat stronger system about to emerge off the west African coast. However, no significant development of either wave is expected during the next 5 or more days.

I’ll have a complete update late Saturday morning

Steve Gregory

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3055. NatureIsle
12:58 AM GMT on August 24, 2014
Quoting 2827. opal92nwf:


If only it gets in the Gulf

VRS -REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM BY SUNDAY...

Well, WELL, WELL - SO MUCH FOR THOSE OF US WHO ARE SO INCLINED TO BE DOWNCASTERS OR NAYSAYERS OF SYSTEMS. We should always be a lot more cautious and reserved in our perceptions, judgments and inferences of tropical systems...wish-casting included. So much of Meteorology is definitely an inexact science. Its better to reserve comment than to simply make sweeping and generally unsubstantiated and likely erroneous statements.

Let's All continue to keep safe this season & My Thoughts and Prayers Go Out to those in the Turks and Caicos islands and the Bahamas who are likely in the path of what seems very soon to quickly become T.S. Cristobal.
May God Bless us All!
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
3054. Patrap
5:56 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
ShortWave IR Loop



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
3053. Patrap
5:39 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
RECON POD, tomorrow

Gonzo to fly the Hi Sniff Mission
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
3052. Jedkins01
5:29 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 2904. beell:

06Z GFS does not show strong development for 96L-with a subsequent shift to the west in track. Less than aggressive devlopment could be tied to a more stable, southerly advection (from the north) of a dry and subsident airmass behind the departing trough/ along the building ridge. This may keep the convection on the shallow side.

Both frames valid 00Z, Tuesday (8PM EDT).



08/23 06Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds


08/23 06Z GFS 500 mb rh (96L position is an approximation)

Pretty low RH's shown in the mid levels.



Indeed, its been a rare summer of seemingly endless NW flow leading to well below average rain and thunderstorms for the west coast of Florida and the panhandle. I've never seen a summer like this in this area, if 96L does strengthen enough, it will almost certainly head out to sea due to the weakness, however, if it stays weak, it will more likely head across FL.

I know people want to see some action, but I am hoping very much that it stays weak and heads across FL, it would be a much needed rain maker for the west side of the state which has had far less than the eastern half and since it would be weaker, it wouldn't be major danger, nothing Florida isn't used to. If this develops and turns east of Florida, it will bring another period of drier than average conditions and west flow, which would not be good.


Now, this is a very low confidence forecast, and many members still bring it out to sea, it wasn't until recently that the west trend started again. And upon further analysis, as you said, the more western models are responding to it remaining weaker.


I mention this yesterday that the guidance shifting out to sea were the models assuming it would develop, however, as I mentioned, it will go further west if it stays weak.


At this point, its hard to say if it will develop which determines its destination, the upper low in the Bahamas and the dry mid level RH sinking behind the backdoor front could be meaning that its more likely to stay weaker. However, forecasting intensity remains poor, so there remains a lot of uncertainty, I'd give the probability of either out to sea or going more west about 50/50 do to confidence issues.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7605
3051. HaoleboySurfEC
4:07 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
The encased telephone poles are a formidable reminder of how exposed it is. Love those beaches.

Quoting 3042. win1gamegiantsplease:



Yes as did Calabash (18 ft surge, state record) and Ocean Isle, I think only a few homes out of a few hundred were left intact. Comes to show we CAN get storms stronger than Cat-3 on our coast.
Member Since: July 20, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
3050. CybrTeddy
4:03 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Pretty close shave for Florida on this run.


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
3049. Grothar
3:54 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 3037. CitikatzSouthFL:


Gro, it appears to me that the "blob" below Hispanola has rotation and is breaking off from the big mess called 96L to the north. Any chance that is happening? Also, if that does happen would the little blog go west or get pulled north with 96L?


Even though there seems to be a little vorticity in the area, it is not uncommon to see large portions of an unorganized system spin off these large areas of convection. Since the area in still a pretty much elongated area of low pressure, I think, at the moment, it is unlikely. However, there have been times when "leftover" piece of energy can become a separate entity. For right now I would just concentrate on the established low.




Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
3048. Dakster
3:51 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 3015. CycloneOz:



In my experience, no one is ever that far away from DOOM.

DOOM is always just around the corner!


Yep. It sure is.

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10470
3047. BayFog
3:50 PM GMT on August 23, 2014


96L now struggling against attacks from several sides. There's a dry mid or upper low to its east, what appears to be increasing southwesterly shear on the west side, and that front and associated trough approaching from the north.
Member Since: July 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
3046. CybrTeddy
3:49 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
12z GFS again just shows how tough of a forecasting situation this is. A difference in 20-50 miles by 24-48 hours will make the difference between a Florida landfall and a recurve. It really is 50/50, although with the way 96L is organizing (or lack of organization) right now, I wouldn't be too surprised if it went more west than expected.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
3045. sar2401
3:47 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Door starting to close

-3hrs


3hrs
This will get lost in all the other chatter but I'm not convinced that high is expanding eastward as much as is shown on the map. Pressure here in SE AL is 29.99 and it's been steady since yesterday evening. Pressures at Mobile, Panama City, and Jacksonville are all around 30.00 and steady as well. We may be getting a thermal low developing but I'm still suspicious of the high being all that strong east of here.
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3044. Dakster
3:47 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 3006. washingtonian115:

I discuss this possibility with Dakster and I think with one other member.Those waters are warm ans shear will be low.I do think the eastern gulf is still a possibility.


Yep.. Always gotta think with the warm waters that RI is a possibility.

Was wondering what Washi and Gro thought about 96L this morning as well...

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10470
3043. StormJunkie
3:47 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 3015. CycloneOz:



In my experience, no one is ever that far away from DOOM.

DOOM is always just around the corner!


Is it at all possible that "DOOM" just follows you around?

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16873
3042. win1gamegiantsplease
3:46 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 3014. HaoleboySurfEC:

Holden Beach got hammered, correct?





Yes as did Calabash (18 ft surge, state record) and Ocean Isle, I think only a few homes out of a few hundred were left intact. Comes to show we CAN get storms stronger than Cat-3 on our coast.
Member Since: October 17, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 348
3041. CycloneOz
3:45 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting seflagamma:


Leave it to OZ to bring some humor here! Have not seen the word "doom" since I have been lurking this morning! LOL


My parents nicknamed me "The Agitator." :)

Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3753
3040. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:44 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 3026. weatherlover94:

I think this may not even get declared until after it's close to Florida...probably if it does make landfall it won't be nothing more than a rain maker
that's good nothing wrong with a little rain hopefully that's all it becomes but hey don't depend on it this thing could take off like a banshee screaming across the waters but lets hope not
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54434
3039. Tornado6042008X
3:44 PM GMT on August 23, 2014

Quoting 3016. seflagamma:



Leave it to OZ to bring some humor here! Have not seen the word "doom" since I have been lurking this morning! LOL


Did you join because of Katrina? 
Member Since: March 29, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 329
3038. Patrap
3:43 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
My other "gig" on noladefender.com

WEEKEND WEATHER & TROPICAL OUTLOOK: 8.23, 8.24
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
3037. CitikatzSouthFL
3:43 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 3022. Grothar:

Gro, it appears to me that the "blob" below Hispanola has rotation and is breaking off from the big mess called 96L to the north. Any chance that is happening? Also, if that does happen would the little blog go west or get pulled north with 96L?
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 464
3036. weatherlover94
3:42 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
My other thought is that if it threads the middle between Cuba and Florida then we could have another Ike or Rita situation on our hands
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3035. prcane4you
3:42 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 3019. congaline:

Who is "tropical expert"?
Not me.They are from Florida and NC
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3034. seflagamma
3:42 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Yeah! this one is getting way too long and slow.
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3033. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:42 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
3032. unknowncomic
3:41 PM GMT on August 23, 2014


Center exposed. Not much strengthening till that gets covered. Should be an interesting D-Max. Might be abouit the time it reaches the warmer water at 74W.
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3031. LargoFl
3:41 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
look at the direction everything is moving to................................................ ........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
3030. ILwthrfan
3:41 PM GMT on August 23, 2014


Quoting 2988. StormJunkie:



How long that weak vorticity will survive if it doesn't develop convection is the real question. Being that it is weak to begin with; if it takes to long to build convection then I can't imagine it holding on in the bigger scheme of the wave.

True, but I believe this one is trending the other way due to it's geologic environment changing. That vortices is developing because of the strait between Cuba and the Dominican Republic is allow that southwesterly fetch to come and help close of that west wind we have yet to see. It was blocked by the mountains prior. I bet we see this circulation get pulled northeast towards current convection. That would certainly change things up a bit with model runs.
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3029. OracleDeAtlantis
3:40 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 2983. MiamiHurricanes09:

The upper-low out west is definitely having a negative impact on the system or else it would most likely be a tropical cyclone at this point; the interaction with Hispañola hasn't helped its cause either. The fact that Recon was also unable to find virtually nil in the way of wind shifts is also another strike for the development of the system. All in all I think it will continue to very gradually organize and that's evident by the very minute change we're seeing on satellite imagery. Could see this becoming a tropical cyclone tomorrow morning, but the fact that it's remaining weak for the time being doesn't bode well for southern/central Florida.

That is everything I was thinking in a nutshell.

It's the perfect soundbite for this storm.

I would only add that there is no way this trough is going to pick the system up.

It doesn't bode well for the United States, period.
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
3028. wunderkidcayman
3:40 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Think the circulation is quite visible here. Moving WNW/NW. Speed up the loop and it shouldn't be too hard to find. Right around 21N; look for Great Inagua and then due west of it.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I see 4 spins one of then is that one however it's mid level
Another is just S of that at low level
Another is just in between Haiti and Cuba
The last is the weakest but it's there N of Haiti W of the mid level spin and the other spin to its S

Yeah just looking at the updated hi res your mid level spin is now gone

The others are just lined up and looks more or less like a trof
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
3027. Climate175
3:40 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 3020. washingtonian115:

Look at the wave in the MDR.
I still think that will be Invest 97L soon.
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3026. weatherlover94
3:40 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
I think this may not even get declared until after it's close to Florida...probably if it does make landfall it won't be nothing more than a rain maker
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2209
3025. BayFog
3:40 PM GMT on August 23, 2014


Lowell currently defying the forecast track, moving slightly east of north. Edge of outflow now crossing the coast at San Diego. Storm resembles Norman (Sept. 1978).
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3024. Sfloridacat5
3:40 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting congaline:
Who is "tropical expert"?


The Met on TWC that does the tropical update, etc.
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3023. prcane4you
3:39 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 3002. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

latest updated animation 5 minutes old


Waiting for a close circulation to form and to Florida we go.
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3022. Grothar
3:38 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
3021. DeepSeaRising
3:38 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 2998. MiamiHurricanes09:

Don't like to use the word around the blog due to the fact that it's usually followed by stupid remarks, but I could very well see something very Katrina-like, in a vague sense. A strengthening cyclone off of the coast in a great environment for intensification headed westward. Doesn't seem all that off.


When some say such things it's taken with a grain of Salt. Your not included in that. That's a scary notion, but the unpredictability with this is through the roof. With this strong anticyclone in place and ideal conditions ahead, and RI being so little understood, lots of possibilities still on the table. Shear map shows moderate to high shear in front of 96L, will not put this invest under high shear conditions. Anticyclone has kept shear at 5-10ks for the last three days. Shear was forecast to be 30-40kts two days ago and anticyclone just kept pushing it out. 96L is pushing a high amount of energy, now that it's back over open seas, this should ramp up quickly to at least a 45-50mph TS by this time tonight or through tomorrow early morning.
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3020. washingtonian115
3:38 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 3008. Climate175:

18 hrs, I am using Imgur.
Look at the wave in the MDR.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17093
3019. congaline
3:38 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 2993. prcane4you:

Oh no please.we need it due west or wnw heading to Florida.
Who is "tropical expert"?
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3018. Climate175
3:38 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
30 hrs and going starting to go NW.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4169
3017. kuppenskup
3:37 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Seems to me like that trough is splitting. High pressure will kick in to force 96L more westward in the next couple of days.
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3016. seflagamma
3:37 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 3001. CycloneOz:

This slow developing...slow moving...westward ho tropical wave could undergo RI offshore of FL just before landfall and create an epic DOOM situation!


Leave it to OZ to bring some humor here! Have not seen the word "doom" since I have been lurking this morning! LOL

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917
3015. CycloneOz
3:37 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting ScooterXX7:


This is a silly comment. I know you go chasing storms, and it would be fun to chase a landfalling Florida storm, but we're quite far from "DOOM".


In my experience, no one is ever that far away from DOOM.

DOOM is always just around the corner!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3753
3014. HaoleboySurfEC
3:36 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Holden Beach got hammered, correct?


Quoting 2918. win1gamegiantsplease:



C'mon ecmwf! I think it will come close enough to the SE coast that we'll definitely get some rain/wind but that would be frightening. 60 years since Hazel come October and it was Brunswick County that took the brunt not Wilmington.
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3013. At4and27
3:36 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 3002. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

latest updated animation 5 minutes old



Barely any northern motion in that...
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3012. Envoirment
3:35 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
A recon plane has just taken off:

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3011. LargoFl
3:35 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
storm looks to be splitting in half....that would be great...less of a threat.........................
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3010. Hurricanes101
3:35 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Recon is up
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7824
3009. kuppenskup
3:34 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Might see more of a westerly trend on the future track later today I believe
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3008. Climate175
3:33 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
18 hrs, I am using Imgur.
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3007. prcane4you
3:33 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 2997. DewPointOneDrop:

Yes, Need it to hit Florida..Might be able to see the beach from the road again.
lol
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1213
3006. washingtonian115
3:33 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 2998. MiamiHurricanes09:

Don't like to use the word around the blog due to the fact that it's usually followed by stupid remarks, but I could very well see something very Katrina-like, in a vague sense. A strengthening cyclone off of the coast in a great environment for intensification headed westward. Doesn't seem all that off.
I discuss this possibility with Dakster and I think with one other member.Those waters are warm ans shear will be low.I do think the eastern gulf is still a possibility.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17093
3005. ScooterXX7
3:32 PM GMT on August 23, 2014
Quoting 3001. CycloneOz:

This slow developing...slow moving...westward ho tropical wave could undergo RI offshore of FL just before landfall and create an epic DOOM situation!


This is a silly comment. I know you go chasing storms, and it would be fun to chase a landfalling Florida storm, but we're quite far from "DOOM".
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 29

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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