Tropical Atlantic Remains Quiet; Eastern Pacific Heating Up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:25 PM GMT on August 19, 2014

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A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic near 11°N 48°W, about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed westwards at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has a broad, elongated surface circulation and a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is poorly organized. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that the wave is surrounded by dry air, though the amount of dryness has lessened over the past two days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are marginal for development, about 27°C. The Tuesday morning run of one of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET model, did show this wave developing into a tropical storm on Friday as it passed through the Lesser Antilles. Given the presence of so much dry air near the disturbance, the risk of development is low Tuesday and Wednesday, but development odds will increase on Thursday as the wave nears the Lesser Antilles, where ocean temperatures will be warmer and the atmosphere a little moister. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 20%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance on Thursday afternoon, if necessary.

A second disturbance near 13°N, 37°W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, also has a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms with some modest rotation. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 20%, respectively. None of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predict that this disturbance will develop over the next five days as it heads west-northwest at about 10 mph.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Lowell as seen at 11 am EDT Tuesday, August 19, 2014. At the time, Lowell had top winds of 50 mph. Image taken from a super-rapid scan mode loop from the NOAA/RAMMB website.

The Eastern Pacific heating up
In the Eastern Pacific, we have a new named storm, Tropical Storm Lowell, which formed at 03 UTC on Tuesday. The GOES-West satellite is in super-rapid scan mode over Lowell today, and you can access some very impressive one-minute time resolution loops of Lowell at the NOAA/RAMMB website. Lowell's formation gives the Eastern Pacific 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricane so far this season. On average, the Eastern Pacific sees 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by August 18, so it has been a very active year in the basin. Tropical Storm Karina is also spinning away in the Eastern Pacific today, and Karina and Lowell are expected to become entangled with each other early next week and die in the cool waters well to the west of Baja Mexico. The models have been consistently predicting that a another named storm (Marie) will form late this week from a tropical wave that crossed Central America on Monday and will move parallel to the Mexican coast a few hundred miles offshore. This storm, which NHC is giving 5-day odds of development of 70%, is something residents of the Baja Peninsula should monitor next week. Ocean temperatures in the waters just west of the Baja Peninsula are unusually warm---30°C (86°F), which is about 3°C (5°F) above average--so Marie will have plenty of heat energy available to power it.

The Western Pacific remains mercifully quiet, with no new named storms expected to develop over the next five days.

Jeff Masters

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686. wunderweatherman123
8:55 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 675. Levi32:



It's just hard to avoid North/central America in August if you're a TC in the Caribbean. Charley recurved into Florida, not out to sea. Here's historical August tracks passing through the eastern Caribbean area - you can see if they don't hit North America, they usually get close.


interesting. thanks. I find that storm track that curve into the coast are much more common given how many troughs come off or at least stay off the east coast. to think about it, it seems pretty hard to get a storm going wnw until its final landfall. seems pretty difficult to get something going over the northern islands and wnw right into florida and continuing wnw until it finally goes around the high.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1725
685. BahaHurican
8:41 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
684. weathermanwannabe
8:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Given where things might be headed over the next several weeks, folks in the Caribbean, Gulf Coast/Gulf of Mexico Region, and Florida should go ahead and check on the supplies stock for the season and have their plans in place in case they may need to prepare and/or evacuate if a storm threatens. That should be done every year regardless; any storm entering the Caribbean basin is usually going to impact somewhere along the areas mentioned unless it dissipates (whether because of unfavorable conditions or land interaction) and there will probably be a few hurricanes this year. As far as the models; take every run this far out with a large grain of salt and especially with no actual storm to track................................The NHC 3 and 5 day tracks (on an actual storm) is what you should use for actual preparation when/if the time comes.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9234
683. Sfloridacat5
8:17 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting LargoFl:
89.5 kts...........is that 100 mph winds?............................................ ............


981 is "usually" a low end CAT2 (or high end CAT1).
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7406
682. hydrus
8:16 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 649. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its got a bit to go by late Thursday afternoon should start the wind up as it tracks into ne carb south pr somewhere near 16n 66 w
If this were to form, could take a rather dangerous path. And conditions in the gulf ( should it get their ) are expected to be very favorable for strengthening.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21418
681. HaoleboySurfEC
8:14 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Glad to see you around.

Quoting 611. reedzone:

96L enters into the most favorable conditions we've seen in the Atlantic since October 2012. This could be one to watch, one model has it heading up the spine of Florida as a Hurricane, GFS has it hitting New Orleans as a Hurricane, FIM has it reaching the Bahamas by 7 seven days... as a Hurricane. This is looking promising for us storm trackers and one to watch for the East Coast or Gulf Coast. Pattern does not favor a recurve out to sea at all. 96L will eventually effect the USA sometime next late next week whether be a Hurricane, Tropical Storm, or even a disturbance.
Member Since: July 20, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
680. LargoFl
8:12 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 679. TropicalAnalystwx13:


102.9 mph at 850mb (~5000ft). Multiply that by 80% and you get 82.3 mph winds at the surface.

But it's the CMC.
ok thanks
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
679. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:10 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 677. LargoFl:

89.5 kts...........is that 100 mph winds?............................................ ............

102.9 mph at 850mb (~5000ft). Multiply that by 80% and you get 82.3 mph winds at the surface.

But it's the CMC.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32277
678. LargoFl
8:08 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 676. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Quit pointing that thing at Tampa Bay. LOL
LOL i'll second that
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
677. LargoFl
8:07 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
89.5 kts...........is that 100 mph winds?............................................ ............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
676. GTstormChaserCaleb
8:05 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 661. StormTrackerScott:

CMC

Quit pointing that thing at Tampa Bay. LOL
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8436
675. Levi32
8:03 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 654. wunderweatherman123:

agree with everything. thanks. the steering you talked about with that trough sitting there. you mentioned a stronger storm like a powerful hurricane would feel the pull and phase with the trough. is that common during august? the only storm i could think of that formed in the caribbean and phased with a trough was charley in 04.


It's just hard to avoid North/central America in August if you're a TC in the Caribbean. Charley recurved into Florida, not out to sea. Here's historical August tracks passing through the eastern Caribbean area - you can see if they don't hit North America, they usually get close.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26655
674. Gearsts
8:03 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 664. Grothar:


That makes everything look scary.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1803
673. rmbjoe1954
8:01 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 664. Grothar:


96L looks angry, Gro.
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1365
672. ricderr
8:00 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Takes a long time for old people to get from one place to the next. Kinda like driving 35 in a 50mph speed zone.



ta da da boom.........some of us old people average 3 miles a day.......whether on the street or tread.......by the way......are you still of a mind the atlantic is dead?????
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21758
670. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:00 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
669. SFLWeatherman
8:00 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
??

Quoting 668. ricderr:

navgem another one with no love


Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4681
668. ricderr
7:58 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
navgem another one with no love

Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21758
667. nrtiwlnvragn
7:57 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 642. pcola57:



There is also TC Intensity Model Guidance used by NHC
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
666. hydrus
7:57 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 661. StormTrackerScott:

CMC

Tampa...That would be bad.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21418
665. CaribBoy
7:57 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6230
664. Grothar
7:56 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26505
663. hurricanes2018
7:56 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 659. StormTrackerScott:

GFS


GFS loves making hurricane so big in size!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 53562
662. Gearsts
7:55 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 660. hurricanes2018:

Invest 96L starting to look better right now!!!
From not much.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1803
661. StormTrackerScott
7:54 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
CMC
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3325
660. hurricanes2018
7:53 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Invest 96L starting to look better right now!!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 53562
659. StormTrackerScott
7:53 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
GFS

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3325
658. StormTrackerScott
7:52 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 656. Drakoen:



Give him time to get to the pharmacy :)


Takes a long time for old people to get from one place to the next. Kinda like driving 35 in a 50mph speed zone.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3325
657. BahaHurican
7:51 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 618. Drakoen:

It's that time of year again where everyone needs to update their prescription on their meds.
Including those of us who do not live in TC prone areas.... :o)

Quoting 624. pcola57:



Hey Baha..
Reloaded IE and moved from Firefox earlier this year due to the continuous script errors on multiple sites..
No prob now..
The real problem here is an overloaded banner header..

Ironically I had moved from IE to Firefox for the same reason.... :o/

Quoting 625. juracanpr1:


What if the future (may be) Christobal (Columbus) decides to rediscover America a second time?
It sounds like you are predicting a Bahamas landfall....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
656. Drakoen
7:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 646. STORMW2014:



Again Ric, that is the ensemble member... Get with the program


Give him time to get to the pharmacy :)
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
655. frank727
7:49 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
I have seen it many of times where many think the next name on the list will be the storm everyone is talking about. We could have 2 named storms Christobal and then Dolly. What one will be the one the models are picking up on now. It could be Dolly?
Member Since: July 28, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
654. wunderweatherman123
7:49 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 639. Levi32:

Good afternoon.

I've posted a new video discussion on the tropical mess east of the Caribbean for those interested:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, August 19th
agree with everything. thanks. the steering you talked about with that trough sitting there. you mentioned a stronger storm like a powerful hurricane would feel the pull and phase with the trough. is that common during august? the only storm i could think of that formed in the caribbean and phased with a trough was charley in 04.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1725
653. Sfloridacat5
7:47 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting ricderr:
ecmwf just doesn't give 96l any love




Looks like it kills it over Haiti.
Then a low pop up just off the S.E. coast (N.E. Florida offshore) which I believe is the same system.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7406
652. prcane4you
7:47 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 629. hydrus:


And that is an invest? What a joke.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1213
651. StormTrackerScott
7:46 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
96L has a lot of heat energy close to FL if it heads this way.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3325
650. ricderr
7:46 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
navgem another one with no love

Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21758
649. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:45 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 629. hydrus:


its got a bit to go by late Thursday afternoon should start the wind up as it tracks into ne carb south pr somewhere near 16n 66 w
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54420
648. ncstorm
7:45 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 623. ricderr:

Ric..are you bored? Not going there sir....dont you know a storm is a brewing..how bout post some 5 day model runs..

and I do plus comments sometimes..and I'm pretty sure my connection is working perfectly..Its not like I live with nothing but tumbleweeds..


sorry my post offended you...it was meant with sincerity...if i am such a bother i ask you to place me on ignore as neither of us will be banned that way....i'll leave the topic at that


Bans..Smans..I'm good as long as you behave :)..I hardly put anyone on ignore which is why I get bans all the time..

the site is having issues though and its not an connective issue..its WU..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15682
647. CybrTeddy
7:45 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting nash36:
I will laugh myself stupid if 96L reaches the islands and fizzles out like a fart in the wind. The Xanax will be swallowed in fistfulls on this board! Lol.


I think we should expect that, lol.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
645. juracanpr1
7:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
The two disturbances (96L and that beyond it) exhibits a mild interaction between these two features. If 96L has better conditions then 96L could predominate. It seems that 96L will cross far south of PR. However, if it do develop into a well sustained storm before reaching 60-61 longitude then it could go further north and hence closer to PR, due to the TUTT at north.
Member Since: August 2, 2014 Posts: 1 Comments: 121
644. ricderr
7:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
gfs shows weak also.......


Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21758
643. stormwatcherCI
7:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 622. stormpetrol:

close to TD status IMO, 11N/49W
Not yet. Winds are at 25kts but it is still too stretched. Not concentrated enough yet.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
642. pcola57
7:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 635. nrtiwlnvragn:

Thank you for the link NRT..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6844
641. LargoFl
7:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39264
640. TheDawnAwakening
7:43 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
96L is showing tropical characteristics, surface low, well developed central convection and a convectively enhanced moist airmass with a large upper level anticyclone present taking away any wind shear problems until the central Caribbean Sea.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3947
639. Levi32
7:43 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Good afternoon.

I've posted a new video discussion on the tropical mess east of the Caribbean for those interested:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, August 19th
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26655
638. ricderr
7:43 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
ecmwf just doesn't give 96l any love


Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21758
637. StormTrackerScott
7:42 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Long range models seem to point 96L right at FL both operational and ensembles.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3325
636. nash36
7:42 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
I will laugh myself stupid if 96L reaches the islands and fizzles out like a fart in the wind. The Xanax will be swallowed in fistfulls on this board! Lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 713

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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