July 2014: Earth's 4th Warmest July on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:53 PM GMT on August 18, 2014

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July 2014 was Earth's fourth warmest July since records began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) today. NASA rated July 2014 cooler: the 11th warmest July on record. The July ranking by NOAA broke a streak of two consecutive warmest months on record--May and June of 2014 (they originally ranked April 2014 as tied for warmest April on record, but have since revised it to the second warmest April on record.) Global ocean temperatures during July 2014 were tied with July 2009 for the warmest July on record, and global land temperatures in July 2014 were the 10th warmest on record. The year-to-date January - July period was the 3rd warmest on record for the globe. Global satellite-measured temperatures in July 2014 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 4th or 5th warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2014, the 4th warmest July for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record-warm conditions were experienced over portions of five continents, most notably Northern Europe and Northwest Africa. The Central U.S. and Central Russia had much cooler than average temperatures. Overall, 32 countries across every continent except Antarctica had at least one station reporting a record high temperature for July. The United States and the Russian Federation each had several stations that reported record warm temperatures as well as several stations with record cold temperatures for the month. No other countries had stations that reported a record cold July temperature. The period of record varies by station. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .



Three billion-dollar weather disasters in July 2014
Three billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth during July 2014, all in China, according to the July 2014 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. The total number of billion-dollar weather disasters for the seven months of 2014 is fourteen, which is well behind the record-setting pace of 2013, which had 22 such disasters by the end of July, and ended up with a record 41 by the end of the year.


Disaster 1. With a name meaning “thunder of God,” Super Typhoon Rammasun was the strongest typhoon on record to hit China, as measured by observed sea level pressure at landfall (899.2 mb measured at Qizhou Island, about 20 miles east of Hainan Island, according to the National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration.) According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Rammasun peaked as a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds shortly before hitting China's Hainan Island. Rammasun killed 206 and did $6.5 billion in damage, making it the most expensive weather disaster so far in 2014. Approximately $249 million of the damage was done in the Philippines, making it that nation's 8th most expensive typhoon on record. The image above was taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite at 1:35 p.m. local time (0535 UTC) on July 18, 2014. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards.


Disaster 2. Drought conditions worsened across portions of northern and eastern China in July, with nine provinces enduring some of their lowest rain totals since 1961. Among the worst-hit areas were Shandong, Shaanxi, Henan, and Inner Mongolia, where the lack of rainfall has caused severe damage to crops and limited the availability of drinking water. In this photo, we see a farmer standing in dried and cracked earth that used to be the bottom of Zhifang Reservoir on July 29, 2014 in Dengfeng, China. Photo credit: ChinaFotoPress/ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images.


Disaster 3. Torrential monsoon rains over southern China July 13 - 18, 2014, killed 66 people and did $1.25 billion in damage. In this photo, a bridge in Fenghuang Ancient Town is submerged by flood waters on July 15, 2014 in Jishou, China. Image credit: ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images.

An El Niño Watch continues
July 2014 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and sea surface temperatures were near average in late July and the first half of August in the so-called Niño 3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months for an El Niño event to be declared. NOAA is continuing its El Niño Watch, but in early August dropped their odds of a fall El Niño from 80% to 65%.

Arctic sea ice falls to 4th lowest July extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during July was the 4th lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The Northern Sea Route (also known as the Northeast Passage)--the shipping lane along the north coast of Russia in Arctic waters--was open by mid-August, according to ice edge analyses by the National Snow and Ice Data Center and the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. The Northwest Passage through the Arctic waters of Canada was ice-choked, and will likely stay closed in 2014. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497. The Northeast Passage opened to ice-free navigation for the first time in recorded history in 2005, with the Northwest Passage following suit during the summer of 2007. Both passages have been open multiple summers since then, as long-term melting of the ice has continued. However, this summer's weather in the Arctic has featured winds favorable for not letting sea ice drift out through Fram Strait, and we have seen the total volume of sea sea as estimated by the University of Washington PIOMAS model pull back from the record low set in 2012. It appears that some of the 2nd-year ice that survived the summer of 2013 will also survive the summer of 2014, so the ice pack is armoring itself a bit going into 2015 with a modest amount of multi-year ice compared to what we went into 2012 with (2012 set the record for lowest Arctic sea ice extent.)

Quiet in the tropics
A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed westwards at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has a broad, elongated surface circulation that has become less defined since Sunday, and heavy thunderstorm activity is almost entirely lacking due to moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and dry air. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that the wave is surrounded by a very dry airmass. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are marginal for development, about 27°C. The Monday morning run of one of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET model, did show some weak development of the wave by late in the week, with the wave arriving in the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Given the presence of so much dry air near the disturbance, the risk of development is low. Development odds will rise a little as the wave nears the Lesser Antilles late in the week, when ocean temperatures will be warmer and the atmosphere a little moister. In their 2 pm EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 10%, respectively.

Jeff Masters

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882. BahaHurican
7:57 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
We just lost power here - seems like lightning from a thunder storm did us in...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 20 Comments: 23997
881. bdWC
3:54 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 878. superpete:



Member Since: January 1, 1970 Posts: 0 Comments: 95

January 1st 1970 join date ?!!!!!!!!!!

'Respect'


beginning of unix time
Member Since: August 7, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
880. Neapolitan
3:50 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 875. Webberweather53:



That does absolutely nothing to give reason as to why the NCDC has decided to ignore the polar regions in their global temperature maps, when we have actual data that measures temperatures in these regions. The land only coverage of NCDC is atrocious @ best, missing 2 entire continents of data, that's quite a bit of infilling don't you think? :) We can just use this as a previous example...





You're just being your usual silly self. You may say they're "ignoring" the poles if you'd like, but they're not including them simply because direct surface measurements are more complete and of a far longer duration. Having said all that, you're doubtless aware that the poles are warming faster than anywhere else, so the map would be even *more* red than it already is--and that would send the crackpot denialists into even greater fits of apoplexy... ;-)

The bottom line--as evidenced by those graphs and a million other data points: the planet continues to warm.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14501
879. HaoleboySurfEC
3:49 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Wonderful Post.

Quoting 874. MississippiWx:

A lot of variables are in play with the possible tropical cyclone coming from the Central Atlantic. The first is where and when one solid area of low pressure can consolidate. If one is able to finally do it, strength of the low will more than likely determine whether it goes north of the Greater Antilles or into the Caribbean. After that, the opportunity for anything recurving east of the US seems unlikely to me as ridging builds in quickly taking care of any weakness to the north. In my opinion, we need one solid area of vorticity/low pressure first before deciding which solution is more likely. My gut instinct says this feels more like a system that will skirt the Northern coasts of the Greater Antilles as there will be enough of a weakness to the north initially to draw any wave/low to the north a bit. After that, I think the door shuts and it's westbound for a little while. Who knows what will become of the system that is there, but it will be in an area that has been fairly favorable for development as of late.

I think the 6z GFS is a little too far south with the system on this run, but this is a favorable pattern for TC development with a ridge to the north focusing all the energy into the NW Caribbean/SW Atlantic. As I said at the beginning, a lot of solutions and variables are present and this will be tough to forecast until we get one solid area to track. The models at least point to a much more favorable pattern for tropical cyclone development.



Member Since: July 20, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1147
878. superpete
3:49 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 836. csmda:
I am so tired of reading through childish nonsense on this blog. If you're old enough to use the computer and navigate this site then you know better. Positing "reported" whether alone or in your post, is ridiculous and some of you do it too darn much. Maybe it's the mother in me but I get enough fighting with my own kids. I come here to read about weather and learn, not to be annoyed by bickering.


Member Since: January 1, 1970 Posts: 0 Comments: 95

January 1st 1970 join date ?!!!!!!!!!!

'Respect'
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 729
877. FOREX
3:36 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 874. MississippiWx:

A lot of variables are in play with the possible tropical cyclone coming from the Central Atlantic. The first is where and when one solid area of low pressure can consolidate. If one is able to finally do it, strength of the low will more than likely determine whether it goes north of the Greater Antilles or into the Caribbean. After that, the opportunity for anything recurving east of the US seems unlikely to me as ridging builds in quickly taking care of any weakness to the north. In my opinion, we need one solid area of vorticity/low pressure first before deciding which solution is more likely. My gut instinct says this feels more like a system that will skirt the Northern coasts of the Greater Antilles as there will be enough of a weakness to the north initially to draw any wave/low to the north a bit. After that, I think the door shuts and it's westbound for a little while. Who knows what will become of the system that is there, but it will be in an area that has been fairly favorable for development as of late.

I think the 6z GFS is a little too far south with the system on this run, but this is a favorable pattern for TC development with a ridge to the north focusing all the energy into the NW Caribbean/SW Atlantic. As I said at the beginning, a lot of solutions and variables are present and this will be tough to forecast until we get one solid area to track. The models at least point to a much more favorable pattern for tropical cyclone development.



excellent post. thanks.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2857
876. FOREX
3:35 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
The Central Atlantic waves look like one big mess on Rainbow. Sigh.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2857
875. Webberweather53
3:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 850. Neapolitan:



No, there are no "excuses". There are, however, valid scientific reasons, reasons well-explained in all the open and available literature for anyone who cares to look. But in short: one of the data sources on which that map is based--the GHCN (for Global Historical Climatology Network)--is an "integrated database of climate summaries from land surface stations across the globe that have been subjected to a common suite of quality assurance reviews". The other--the ERSST--is "a global monthly sea surface temperature analysis derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean%u2013Atmosphere Dataset with missing data filled in by statistical methods." IOW, what you see are surface measurements; no satellite is involved...


That does absolutely nothing to give reason as to why the NCDC has decided to ignore the polar regions in their global temperature maps, when we have actual data that measures temperatures in these regions. The land only coverage of NCDC is atrocious @ best, missing 2 entire continents of data, that's quite a bit of infilling don't you think? :) We can just use this as a previous example...


Member Since: April 9, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 757
874. MississippiWx
3:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
A lot of variables are in play with the possible tropical cyclone coming from the Central Atlantic. The first is where and when one solid area of low pressure can consolidate. If one is able to finally do it, strength of the low will more than likely determine whether it goes north of the Greater Antilles or into the Caribbean. After that, the opportunity for anything recurving east of the US seems unlikely to me as ridging builds in quickly taking care of any weakness to the north. In my opinion, we need one solid area of vorticity/low pressure first before deciding which solution is more likely. My gut instinct says this feels more like a system that will skirt the Northern coasts of the Greater Antilles as there will be enough of a weakness to the north initially to draw any wave/low to the north a bit. After that, I think the door shuts and it's westbound for a little while. Who knows what will become of the system that is there, but it will be in an area that has been fairly favorable for development as of late.

I think the 6z GFS is a little too far south with the system on this run, but this is a favorable pattern for TC development with a ridge to the north focusing all the energy into the NW Caribbean/SW Atlantic. As I said at the beginning, a lot of solutions and variables are present and this will be tough to forecast until we get one solid area to track. The models at least point to a much more favorable pattern for tropical cyclone development.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10300
873. bdWC
3:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2014




Member Since: August 7, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
872. Sfloridacat5
3:31 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
I tend to agree with the GFS description for P17L.
NPS site SYNOPSIS

GFS: Like yesterday, the first day of GFS positions are uncertain since P17L is just an OW max on the western edge of large P18L. Depicted as a small but distinct pouch for Days 2-3. Unlike yesterday’s forecast, the GFS P17L cannot escape P18L and is absorbed by P18L on its southern side after 72 hours.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11337
871. prcane4you
3:30 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 869. LargoFl:

2 different models, 2 different routes..but all wind up in the same place.....................
Please God turn it to Tampa
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1405
870. prcane4you
3:29 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 855. wunderkidcayman:


Yeah
Wheee....have fun
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1405
869. LargoFl
3:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
2 different models, 2 different routes..but all wind up in the same place.....................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 51781
868. prcane4you
3:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 864. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Tell me how I did.


Stormw tells you how.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1405
867. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:27 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 854. Sooon:


Antarctica with no data???
And what is also that gray hole over China?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59571
866. prcane4you
3:26 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 856. jascott1967:



Re...wait for it, wait for it....notported.
Tropical Depression?
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1405
865. LargoFl
3:26 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
tues GFS doesnt take it thru the straights but IS showing something there under cuba.....................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 51781
864. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:26 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Tell me how I did.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9433
863. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:25 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
862. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:25 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 854. Sooon:


Antarctica with no data???
And what is also that gray hole over China?
just the highest mountain chain on earth still got to train the mountain goats to record the temps there we are working on it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59571
861. prcane4you
3:23 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 853. csmda:



So just enough for false hope. I guess it's better than nothing.
Hope is a great thing for the invest tracker.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1405
860. LargoFl
3:22 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
well this is 7 days out..if..it IS here in 7 days..we'll see what happens..........................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 51781
859. wunderkidcayman
3:22 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Also SW Carib has exploded with convection
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 14969
858. Thunderground
3:22 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 841. Llamaluvr:

He sounds angry. He must be a south pole elf.


ELF is my favorite christmas movie! : )
back to lurking
Member Since: August 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 150
857. Webberweather53
3:22 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 825. GTstormChaserCaleb:

You know thanks for pointing that out I never noticed that before. Don't we have polar orbiting satellites to scan the polar regions?


We do & we have observation from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) for the region north of 80N since 1958, & temperatures in the last 2 summers in the arctic have been below normal according to their data due to a faltering AMO, & sea ice is not near to the levels observed in the late 2000s (in fact we are much closer to the 2000s average @ this pt in time), which can also be attributed to the cooling of the AMO recently that's a response to the overall dip in the MEI since the late 2000s which has also adversely affected the hurricane season...

2014 mean temperatures north of 80N, DMI (green line is avg)


2013 mean temperatures north of 80N, DMI (green line is avg)


Link

Member Since: April 9, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 757
856. jascott1967
3:22 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 836. csmda:

I am so tired of reading through childish nonsense on this blog. If you're old enough to use the computer and navigate this site then you know better. Positing "reported" whether alone or in your post, is ridiculous and some of you do it too darn much. Maybe it's the mother in me but I get enough fighting with my own kids. I come here to read about weather and learn, not to be annoyed by bickering.


Re...wait for it, wait for it....notported.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 614
855. wunderkidcayman
3:21 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting weatherh98:
Could it be? A wave holding on to convection? I think so

Yeah
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 14969
854. Sooon
3:20 PM GMT on August 19, 2014

Quoting 830 KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Antarctica with no data???
And what is also that gray hole over China?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
853. csmda
3:20 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 849. sar2401:

0.03". It was torrential...for five minutes.


So just enough for false hope. I guess it's better than nothing.
Member Since: January 1, 1970 Posts: 0 Comments: 126
852. wunderkidcayman
3:20 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting sar2401:
I'll be more impressed when we have an actual closed low.

Agreed
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 14969
851. prcane4you
3:16 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 841. Llamaluvr:

He sounds angry. He must be a south pole elf.
I love you.Keep tracking your invest,Keebler boy.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1405
850. Neapolitan
3:15 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 820. Webberweather53:



As usual, the polar regions are once again left w/o any data input into "global" temperature, there's no excuse for that in the satellite era


No, there are no "excuses". There are, however, valid scientific reasons, reasons well-explained in all the open and available literature for anyone who cares to look. But in short: one of the data sources on which that map is based--the GHCN (for Global Historical Climatology Network)--is an "integrated database of climate summaries from land surface stations across the globe that have been subjected to a common suite of quality assurance reviews". The other--the ERSST--is "a global monthly sea surface temperature analysis derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean%u2013Atmosphere Dataset with missing data filled in by statistical methods." IOW, what you see are surface measurements; no satellite is involved...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14501
849. sar2401
3:14 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting csmda:


You get any rain yet? We had lots of cloud cover yesterday but no rain.
0.03". It was torrential...for five minutes.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 22100
848. weatherman994
3:14 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Can someone fill me in on what's going on with the tropics what are the models predicting about a Gulf storm
Member Since: July 24, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
847. GatorWX
3:13 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Morning everyone. Been watching the model runs and most seem to be hinting towards development. I've been hesitant to go along until we actually have something. These monsoon type systems can be very slow to come together and aside front that, it's still very dry just north of the monsoon trough.

If you click and animate the image, speed up animation and focus on 10.2n, 47.5w (or that vicinity). Seems a little surface low may be taking shame imo.

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3837
846. hurricanes2018
3:13 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
nice green color now
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129674
845. prcane4you
3:13 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 832. STORMW2014:



The shear doesn't look that bad if it stays a tad to the north
Shear it is,shear will be.Case closed.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1405
844. sar2401
3:13 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Is it still considered the CMC model or the GEM model? Global Environmental Multiscale Model
Used to be the GEM. Became the CMC two years ago. I don't know why some sites insist on carrying it as the GEM, since it just confuses matters. They dropped the NOGAPS like a hot potato. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 22100
843. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:13 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
surface temp depiction northern hemisphere as of 1400 aug 19 2014

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59571
842. csmda
3:12 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 839. STORMW2014:



Reported for being a angry mother


Haha! Much better :)
Member Since: January 1, 1970 Posts: 0 Comments: 126
841. Llamaluvr
3:12 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 798. prcane4you:

So we are wasting our time.
He sounds angry. He must be a south pole elf.
Member Since: July 8, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 304
840. csmda
3:11 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 838. sar2401:

I'll be more impressed when we have an actual closed low.


You get any rain yet? We had lots of cloud cover yesterday but no rain.
Member Since: January 1, 1970 Posts: 0 Comments: 126
838. sar2401
3:10 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Wow if most of the models if not all showing a tropical system including the non trop NAM



Then you know you have to pay attention

I think this may be the best model support for tropical development for the year
I'll be more impressed when we have an actual closed low.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 22100
837. weatherh98
3:08 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
An invest tag would be great... Floaters and more accurate model runs
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6541
836. csmda
3:07 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
I am so tired of reading through childish nonsense on this blog. If you're old enough to use the computer and navigate this site then you know better. Positing "reported" whether alone or in your post, is ridiculous and some of you do it too darn much. Maybe it's the mother in me but I get enough fighting with my own kids. I come here to read about weather and learn, not to be annoyed by bickering.
Member Since: January 1, 1970 Posts: 0 Comments: 126
835. sar2401
3:06 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
I believe that may be the remnants of ex 94L stationary east of Straits of Fl and over Bahamas. Wonder if Bahamas are lacking for precip. May provide some much needed rain.

ex94L is over the Yucatan headed west. It will become the next in a long line of invests in the Pacific. Its work in the Atlantic is done.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 22100
834. PalmBeachWeather
3:05 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
Quoting 809. STORMW2014:



Don't listen to those amateurs
Hard to distinguish between the two....sometimes
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833. hurricanes2018
3:05 PM GMT on August 19, 2014
i hope we get a invest soon.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129674

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