Extreme Rains Swamp Baltimore and Long Island

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:59 PM GMT on August 13, 2014

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An extreme deluge nearly unprecedented in Baltimore history swamped the city in flood waters that closed multiple expressways on Tuesday afternoon. Officially, 6.30" of rain fell at the Baltimore Airport on Tuesday. This was their second wettest calendar day in history, behind only the 7.62" that fell on August 23, 1933 during the Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane. Remarkably, 3.95" of yesterday's Baltimore deluge fell in just 73 minutes. According to the NOAA Precipitation Frequency server, we would expect such a heavy 2-hour rainfall event to happen only once every 100 years. A 6.30" rainfall in 24 hours has a recurrence interval of once every 25 years.


Figure 1. Flooding in Baltimore, Maryland on Shell Avenue between Curtis Bay and Route 2 on August 12, 2014. Image posted to Instagram by blueagavebalto.

Extreme rains swamp Long Island and Connecticut
Dangerous flash flooding is occurring this Wednesday morning across Central Long Island, New York and Southern Connecticut as a low pressure area centered near New York City brings bands of heavy rain to its east. Rainfall rates as high as 5.34" per hour were observed in Islip, New York, triggering flooding that has forced the closure of multiple freeways, including the Long Island Expressway. Thunderstorms that repeatedly trained over the same point brought Islip 5.34" of rain between 5 - 6 am EDT, then another 4.37" between 6 - 7 am. The NWS reported that 13.20" of rain had fallen in Islip so far this morning, as of 10 am EDT. The record rainfall total for the entire month of August in Islip is 13.78".


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rain in Long Island, New York on August 13, 2014 exceeded 8" along a narrow swath.

Why such heavy rains?
Baltimore and Long Island's deluges comes on the heels of Monday's torrential rains in Detroit, whose roads were virtually shut down when the city's 2nd heaviest 24-hour rain since 1874, 4.57", fell. Portions of four major expressways remain closed in Detroit today due to flood damage, and states of emergency remain in effect for much of Detroit and some of its northern suburbs. All of these floods had two things in common: an unusually high level of water vapor in the atmosphere, and an unusually amplified jet stream. Precipitable water (a measure of water vapor) in Detroit on Monday and near Long Island last night was in the 99th percentile historically. The jet stream was in an unusually contorted configuration, with a strong trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S., and sharp ridge of high pressure over the West. This allowed colder air than usual to move in aloft, increasing the instability of the atmosphere, causing stronger thunderstorm updrafts and heavier rains.


Figure 3. I-94 East in Detroit at Livernois on August 11, 2014. Image posted to Twitter by Ali B. (@AABaydoun.)

Monday's rains meant that four of Detroit's top ten rainiest days since 1874 have occurred in the past seventeen years. Yesterday's rains in Baltimore means that three of Baltimore's top ten rainiest days since 1871 have occurred during the past five years, and four of the top ten rainiest days have occurred in the past 15 years:

1) 7.62" August 23, 1933 (the great Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane
2) 6.30" August 12, 2014
3) 6.02" September 30, 2010
4) 5.97" September 24, 1912
5) 5.85" July 8, 1952
6) 5.51" October 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy)
7) 5.02" September 16, 1999 (Hurricane Floyd)
8) 5.00" September 27, 1985 (Hurricane Gloria)
9) 4.91" August 12, 1955 (Hurricane Connie)
10) 4.76" September 5, 1895


Figure 4. Percent changes in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (the heaviest 1%) from 1958 to 2012 for each region. There is a clear national trend toward a greater amount of precipitation being concentrated in very heavy events, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Image credit: NCA Overview, updated from Karl et al. 2009.

If these numbers make you suspect that record heavy rains may be occurring more frequently in these cities due to a changing climate, then you're in good company. The U.S. National Climate Assessment, issued every four years by NOAA, is an effort by more than 300 U.S. scientists to assess how the climate is changing in the U.S. The just-released 2014 report said: “Heavy downpours are increasing nationally, especially over the last three to five decades. Largest increases are in the Midwest and Northeast. Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected for all U.S. regions.” Fundamentally, a warmer atmosphere will evaporate more moisture from the oceans, resulting in more days with 99th percentile water vapor in the atmosphere, and increased chances of very heavy rainfall events like this week's deluges in Detroit, Baltimore, and Islip.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days.

Jeff Masters

Flooding In Ronkonkoma (rapope)
The streets are currently waist high with water. Time to break out the watercraft!
Flooding In Ronkonkoma
yesterday in Glen Burnie on (kelleycosmo)
yesterday in Glen Burnie on

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600. hydrus
5:43 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 596. JrWeathermanFL:

our main problems in the past few seasons have been dry air and lack of instability.
Shear is always here, but dry air is making it worse...Because every little bit of dry air present is being driven in to storms from the slightest shear..

I say we could struggle to reach 8 storms, though my guess would be 8/4/1 for the whole season. I think the Caribbean and gulf will get at least one decent storm this year.


That was me guess back in May..I up the number to 14/7/2
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22309
599. GatorWX
4:27 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 571. Neapolitan:

A scientific paper just out suggests that, protestations from some aside, both the frequency and intensity of deluges such as the ones Dr. Masters wrote about in the current topic may very well be--and, in fact, likely are--increasing due to climate change:



Full article


Pretty basic physics really.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3797
598. GatorWX
4:22 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Hmmm.... *out east*



Yes, Dr M, that is impressive. Least the GW skeptics are keeping it real.

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3797
597. LargoFl
3:44 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
10 days out but interesting for south florida........................................... ..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41831
596. JrWeathermanFL
3:15 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
our main problems in the past few seasons have been dry air and lack of instability.
Shear is always here, but dry air is making it worse...Because every little bit of dry air present is being driven in to storms from the slightest shear..

I say we could struggle to reach 8 storms, though my guess would be 8/4/1 for the whole season. I think the Caribbean and gulf will get at least one decent storm this year.

Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2532
595. georgevandenberghe
3:12 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 575. OracleDeAtlantis:


Isn't it great ? My cucumbers are loving it. They think they're in paradise.

The squash on the other hand are suffering from waves of stem core borers. Eggs all over the new buds this A.M., and very depressing for them. Normally you would see two waves, but this year it looks like there's going to be three, likely due to the wet or cooler than average summer. I might have gotten lucky by spotting the eggs this A.M. They appreciate the cooler weather too, but the squash bug fight has been very difficult.

This has been a weird year for pests and mold. Some are gone completely, while others rage.

By the way, for any farmers out there, I tried a new remedy this year for powdery mildew that I had not heard of before on my cucumbers and squash. You spray the leaves in bright sunshine with a mix of half water and half milk, or 30% milk to water if you're using whole milk . Bam! ... it's like magic. The protein in the milk somehow does a number on those blemishes, when mixed with sunshine.

And to think I have been dissing organic solutions.


Is the stem core borer the same as the squash vine borer we have throughout the U.S. or is it the pickleworm that spreads north from FL every spring? Control for squash vine borers in the mid atlantic is to plant very early and get a crop of summer squash before they destroy the plants or plant very late after egg laying ends in mid July. Some really warm years there is a second generation but that's probably every year where you are.

My biggest disease problem is DOWNY mildew. Planting early before it becomes endemic each season is the best mitigation. It usually appears here in August and is another problem that spreads from the subtropics each season and is wiped out by winter.

Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 2090
594. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:05 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
new forecast is out forecast high of 63 today with scattered showers possible in the nw flow this afternoon
so today is coolest day since may 17th if we don't exceed the 63 degree mark right now its 60.1 outside as per my pws
with increasing cloudness right on cue with forecast
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55660
593. georgevandenberghe
3:03 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 575. OracleDeAtlantis:


Isn't it great ? My cucumbers are loving it. They think they're in paradise.

The squash on the other hand are suffering from waves of stem core borers. Eggs all over the new buds this A.M., and very depressing for them. Normally you would see two waves, but this year it looks like there's going to be three, likely due to the wet or cooler than average summer. I might have gotten lucky by spotting the eggs this A.M. They appreciate the cooler weather too, but the squash bug fight has been very difficult.

This has been a weird year for pests and mold. Some are gone completely, while others rage.

By the way, for any farmers out there, I tried a new remedy this year for powdery mildew that I had not heard of before on my cucumbers and squash. You spray the leaves in bright sunshine with a mix of half water and half milk, or 30% milk to water if you're using whole milk . Bam! ... it's like magic. The protein in the milk somehow does a number on those blemishes, when mixed with sunshine.

And to think I have been dissing organic solutions.


Is the stem core borer the same as the squash vine borer we have throughout the U.S. or is it the pickleworm that spreads north from FL every spring? Control for squash vine borers in the mid atlantic is to plant very early and get a crop of summer squash before they destroy the plants or plant very late after egg laying ends in mid July. Some really warm years there is a second generation but that's probably every year where you are.

My biggest disease problem is DOWNY mildew. Planting early before it becomes endemic each season is the best mitigation. It usually appears here in August and is another problem that spreads from the subtropics each season and is wiped out by winter.

Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 2090
592. EdMahmoud
3:02 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 586. hurricanes2018:



do you see all the rain out in the water next week that mean less dry air and better tropical wave holding the rain and t.storms and maybe nice tropical storms next weekend


We'd be at 6 or 10 named storms by now if the GFS was accurate. I mentioned the Caribbean a week or so after Arthur, GFS was very consistent that 6-8 days after the model run started, there would be a storm. Always kept pushing the storm farther in time, always 6-8 days from the beginning of the run. That lasted close to a week before the GFS finally caught a clue. When other models, especially the Euro, even thought it was slow picking up TD #2, start showing support, I'll get a little more sanguine.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1148
591. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:00 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
590. opal92nwf
2:59 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
This one had it literally right over my house. Ivan was a Cat. 5 at the time. No wonder so many people in my community boarded up and evacuated like mad dogs even though it ended up making landfall much farther west. People took it very seriously here along the FL Panhandle.
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2841
589. Grothar
2:58 PM GMT on August 14, 2014




Even though it doesn't look like much now, I am looking more at the cluster about to move into central Africa.



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27107
588. Jedkins01
2:56 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 579. ricderr:

I got some nic crow for ever one that still thinks will make it two 10 storms


well today's special is herb crusted crow......with a side of roasted potatoes and sun dried tomatoes




Not sure what's wrong with the GFS, we'll get more rain the next couple days around here than the GFS shows through the 22nd. In fact the gulf has already had more coverage of convection today than the GFS accumulates through the week. Not sure why the GFS has a dry bias for us, because usually the GFS tends to have a wet bias for just about everyone.

One would think that cooling mid level temps, weak upper impulses, and PW of 2.0-2.2 through the weekend along with a tropical wave next week would prompt greater rain coverage.

What's weird is that the GFS missed the heavy rain from here north earlier in the week too. Total rainfall accumulation widespread for the coastal counties was 2-4 inches on Sunday and Monday to our north with local areas of 6-8 inches. The GFS showed only 0.25-0.50 inches to our north and showed less than 0.10 here.
The Tampa Bay area ended up seeing 0.75-1.5 inches with pockets of 2-4 inches instead of 0.05-0.10 qpf by the GFS.

Its weird. I suspect the GFS has been trying to link the drought in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean to us because the GFS rarely has a dry bias, its usually too wet bit at least a little bit. Thankfully it has been wrong so far. As this definitely hasn't been as active as a typical rainy season, but we're still doing well considering how well below normal moisture and rainfall over the tropics, which usually does impact us.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7992
587. opal92nwf
2:54 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
I remember that mentality of fully expecting another storm to hit one after another. Definitely in a different era now.
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586. hurricanes2018
2:53 PM GMT on August 14, 2014


do you see all the rain out in the water next week that mean less dry air and better tropical wave holding the rain and t.storms and maybe nice tropical storms next weekend
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100654
585. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:46 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 572. StuartLurker:



Oh...say it ain't so...if only we could have a little of that cool air. it's 89 degrees here in Palm City, Fl. at 10:25am. Our cool air is provided by A/C!!! Cannot wait until the "season" changes in November when we can wear sweaters and 60 degree weather! LOL! Enjoy your day!
nam temp forecast for ne at 5 am Friday morning

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55660
584. hydrus
2:43 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 579. ricderr:

I got some nic crow for ever one that still thinks will make it two 10 storms


well today's special is herb crusted crow......with a side of roasted potatoes and sun dried tomatoes


That looks really good..I,ll take three orders...and yes, i could eat it all..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22309
583. EpsilonWeather
2:43 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 582. hydrus:

just look at this puny wave.



Will be once it hits the water ;)
Member Since: June 30, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
582. hydrus
2:42 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
just look at this puny wave.

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22309
581. ricderr
2:40 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
my posts have been eaten.......whaaaaaaaa
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22275
580. hydrus
2:39 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22309
579. ricderr
2:39 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
I got some nic crow for ever one that still thinks will make it two 10 storms


well today's special is herb crusted crow......with a side of roasted potatoes and sun dried tomatoes

Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22275
578. hurricanes2018
2:37 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
nino back to 0 again
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100654
577. TimSoCal
2:34 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Looking good. Now if she can just keep the convection during the day, unlike yesterday...
Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 802
576. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:34 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55660
575. OracleDeAtlantis
2:32 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 505. HaoleboySurfEC:



Florence, SC....low to mid 60's this morning. Low humidity. About 4 weeks early.

Isn't it great ? My cucumbers are loving it. They think they're in paradise.

The squash on the other hand are suffering from waves of stem core borers. Eggs all over the new buds this A.M., and very depressing for them. Normally you would see two waves, but this year it looks like there's going to be three, likely due to the wet or cooler than average summer. I might have gotten lucky by spotting the eggs this A.M. They appreciate the cooler weather too, but the squash bug fight has been very difficult.

This has been a weird year for pests and mold. Some are gone completely, while others rage.

By the way, for any farmers out there, I tried a new remedy this year for powdery mildew that I had not heard of before on my cucumbers and squash. You spray the leaves in bright sunshine with a mix of half water and half milk, or 30% milk to water if you're using whole milk . Bam! ... it's like magic. The protein in the milk somehow does a number on those blemishes, when mixed with sunshine.

And to think I have been dissing organic solutions.
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
574. hurricanes2018
2:31 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
i wanted everyone to see this!!!




the tropical wave at 30 west still looking good this morning
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100654
573. Tazmanian
2:29 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting Skyepony:
90E went to the central Pacific. 10E is Karina. We have 95W reprise..

Looking at stuff we may see more flooding around the Great Lakes, into Canada & across the NE, next week~ Monday - Wednesday.

Karina


The K storm is 11E 10E was the J storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
572. StuartLurker
2:27 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 560. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nice cool day today has not been this cool since may
tonight down to low 50's with high 40's possible in the valleys
cooler north of the city


Oh...say it ain't so...if only we could have a little of that cool air. it's 89 degrees here in Palm City, Fl. at 10:25am. Our cool air is provided by A/C!!! Cannot wait until the "season" changes in November when we can wear sweaters and 60 degree weather! LOL! Enjoy your day!
Member Since: September 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
571. Neapolitan
2:26 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
A scientific paper just out suggests that, protestations from some aside, both the frequency and intensity of deluges such as the ones Dr. Masters wrote about in the current topic may very well be--and, in fact, likely are--increasing due to climate change:

Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer

ABSTRACT: The recent decade has seen an exceptional number of high-impact summer extremes in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Many of these events were associated with anomalous jet stream circulation patterns characterized by persistent high-amplitude quasi-stationary Rossby waves. Two mechanisms have recently been proposed that could provoke such patterns: (i) a weakening of the zonal mean jets and (ii) an amplification of quasi-stationary waves by resonance between free and forced waves in midlatitude waveguides. Based upon spectral analysis of the midtroposphere wind field, we show that the persistent jet stream patterns were, in the first place, due to an amplification of quasi-stationary waves with zonal wave numbers 6%u20138. However, we also detect a weakening of the zonal mean jet during these events; thus both mechanisms appear to be important. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the anomalous circulation regimes lead to persistent surface weather conditions and therefore to midlatitude synchronization of extreme heat and rainfall events on monthly timescales. The recent cluster of resonance events has resulted in a statistically significant increase in the frequency of high-amplitude quasi-stationary waves of wave numbers 7 and 8 in July and August. We show that this is a robust finding that holds for different pressure levels and reanalysis products. We argue that recent rapid warming in the Arctic and associated changes in the zonal mean zonal wind have created favorable conditions for double jet formation in the extratropics, which promotes the development of resonant flow regimes.


Full article
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
570. Gearsts
2:26 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 569. silas:


Is that an eye trying to form? Regardless, with convection that deep, there's no way Karina isn't close to hurricane status now.


Yep that's and eye
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1992
569. silas
2:24 PM GMT on August 14, 2014

Quoting hurricanes2018:
Karina will be a hurricane soon
Is that an eye trying to form? Regardless, with convection that deep, there's no way Karina isn't close to hurricane status now.

Member Since: June 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
568. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:22 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
test image upload
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55660
567. hurricanes2018
2:19 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 563. Skyepony:

90E went to the central Pacific. 10E is Karina. We have 95W reprise..

Looking at stuff we may see more flooding around the Great Lakes, into Canada & across the NE, next week~ Monday - Wednesday.

Karina

Karina will be a hurricane soon
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100654
566. StormJunkie
2:05 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Morning all

If we don't see any development out of the two waves off the African coast, looks like it could be another couple weeks of quiet in the Atl. Seems even the African continent has grown silent too. Will be interesting to see if the troughs moving off the E coast persist as we move in to Sept and Oct. A stalled front may end up being the best chances of seeing development this year. Still a long way to go though, and I find it a little hard to believe that we don't see at least something form from a CV wave before the season is over.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
565. BiloxiIsle
2:03 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 458. VAbeachhurricanes:


Yeah screw constitutionally guaranteed freedoms!
Absolutely, because the last time I looked arson and looting was in the Consitution. SMH On a "on topic" note, although I do enjoy watching storms forming, I am enjoying the fact that we haven't had to deal with a storm affecting land. Hope it continues. Hurricanes, and the aftermaths, are no fun.
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564. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:03 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
<
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55660
563. Skyepony (Mod)
2:00 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
90E went to the central Pacific. 10E is Karina. We have 95W reprise..

Looking at stuff we may see more flooding around the Great Lakes, into Canada & across the NE, next week~ Monday - Wednesday.

Karina
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 209 Comments: 39091
562. DCSwithunderscores
1:53 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 538. rjsenterp:

"Yesterday's rains in Baltimore means that three of Baltimore's top ten rainiest days since 1871 have occurred during the past five years, and four of the top ten rainiest days have occurred in the past 15 years:"

A little misleading. 3 of the 4 were associated with hurricanes which typically have heavy downpours in the rain bands.

Another example of using distorted data to justify climate change.


Are you suggesting that hurricanes have become more common there in recent years (that would suggest climate change)? In an unchanging climate a heavy downpour from a hurricane is equally likely in a recent year as in other years. Your argument is entirely flawed. In an unchanging climate every year has an equal chance of having the top daily rainfall event, regardless of the cause.
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561. hurricanes2018
1:50 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/ great wedsite to watch tropical storms and hurricanes
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100654
560. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:47 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
nice cool day today has not been this cool since may
tonight down to low 50's with high 40's possible in the valleys
cooler north of the city
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55660
559. beell
1:45 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Lifting N a little?


Trans-Atlantic Dust Forecast
(a day old)

See ya'll later.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
558. beell
1:38 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 557. hurricanes2018:

add the new tropical waves ones it hit the water


Maybe so. Perhaps I spoke too soon.
:)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
557. hurricanes2018
1:32 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 553. beell:



Only one on this map.


add the new tropical waves ones it hit the water
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100654
556. beell
1:29 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 554. weathermanwannabe:

Beell9:08 AM EDT on August 14, 2014
THE ITCZ DOES NOT EXIST AT THIS MOMENT

Finally relieved to see a pro-met acknowledge what we have been seeing cross Africa and the Central Atlantic for the past few months; I don't recall seeing this much dryness out there, going into mid-August, over the past few years in spite of relatively normal rainfall (no drought) in the Sahel.


No doubt about the dry air-but it is not uncommon for the monsoon circulation/trough to strengthen and replace the ITCZ out into the central ATL. And it is in place out to at least 40W today (48W in the TWD). That in itself is not unusual.

THE ITCZ is characterized by confluent (easterly) flow between the two hemispheres. The monsoon has a more convergent flow and some amount of westerly component in opposing the easterly/northeasterly trades. A well defined monsoon trough is generally a better environment for development than the ITCZ.

But your main point stands. It's kinda dry over the MDR!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
555. jetpixx
1:28 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
I apologize if this has been covered...but I do not get a chance to check this blog as much as I'd like these days.

I've been very interested in Julio in the central Pacific. Is it uncommon for a storm to maintain its tropical characteristics in this part of the ocean? Don't remember a storm so far north of Hawaii at just under hurricane strength.

Is this one unique, or common? Thanks for your help.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 43
554. weathermanwannabe
1:14 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
The Atlantic side ITCZ, which is an extension of the African monsoon trof has not been around for several weeks now in spite of moderate rainfall in the Sahel...............Pretty odd considering no drought this year (you can seen all the green in the Sahel in the Africa satt shot below) in that region.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9377
553. beell
1:12 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 552. hurricanes2018:

here are both tropical waves!! one lost some rain with it but got a good spin to it.. its still need to be watch and one more tropical wave will be in the water late today


Only one on this map.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
552. hurricanes2018
1:09 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
here are both tropical waves!! one lost some rain with it but got a good spin to it.. its still need to be watch and one more tropical wave will be in the water late today
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 102 Comments: 100654
551. beell
1:08 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
It's all about the monsoon!

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2014

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 18N16W...TO 10N26W 9N30W 11N40W AND 11N48W. THE ITCZ DOES
NOT EXIST AT THIS MOMENT.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 8N TO
13N BETWEEN 14W AND 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16919
550. unknowncomic
1:04 PM GMT on August 14, 2014
Quoting 539. MAweatherboy1:

6z GFS is back to showing the CV hurricane. It has development into a TD in as little as 3 days or so. The NHC is not taking notice, however, as this solution has continued limited support from the GFS's own ensembles and no support from other models like the ECMWF and UKMET.


One word-Patience.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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