LIttle Change to African Tropical Wave 94L Headed Towards Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on August 11, 2014

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A tropical wave (Invest 94L) that moved off the coast of Africa on Saturday was located near 12°N, 26°W on Monday morning, and could potentially be a tropical storm when it arrives in the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday. Satellite loops show the wave has a modest amount of spin and respectable amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 94L is located in a fairly moist environment, with the dry air coming off or Africa located well to the north and west of the disturbance. Wind shear was a high 25 knots, but the 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday. Sea Surface Temperatures beneath 94L were 27°C on Monday, but were predicted to fall to 25.5°C by Wednesday, limiting the potential for development through Wednesday. The wave is headed west at 15 - 20 mph, and by Friday, will move over warmer waters of 27°C, as the storm nears the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, 94L will gain some latitude as it approaches the islands, and move into increasingly dry air to the northwest. These conditions are similar to what Bertha encountered as it approached the islands. If 94L does develop, the odds are that it will be a storm similar to Bertha--struggling against dry air, never reaching hurricane strength in the islands. Arrival in the islands should occur on Saturday, according to the Monday morning runs of the GFS and European models. None of the reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, European, and UKMET) develop 94L, but about 1/3 of the 20 members of the GFS model ensemble show development late this week (the GFS ensemble is a set of 20 runs of the GFS model done at lower resolution with slightly different initial conditions to generate an uncertainty "plume" of model runs.) None of these ensemble forecasts showed 94L reaching hurricane strength. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively.


Figure 1. Satellite analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) done at 8 am EDT August 11, 2014, showing Invest 94L lying just south of a large area of dry air that covered much of the Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS/NOAA Hurricane Research Division.

Jeff Masters

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820. SLU
3:08 AM GMT on August 13, 2014
Quoting 732. hydrus:

I usually agree with all your posts, but I believe we are still in the active phase, and will be for at least 10 more years with 2 or 3 seasons slightly below average.


Time will tell if the active era has ended or not but it really does seem that the Atlantic has been slowly running out of steam since 2010.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5387
819. LargoFl
4:24 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
ive seen worse looking storms than this surprise us.................................94L
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 48641
818. EpsilonWeather
3:16 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 812. StormJunkie:

WKC, according to the professionals, and all the major models. 94 is done. Kaput. I'll take their word for it. Anyway, this was always the most likely outcome for ex94. Time to glance E over the next few days.

The thing isn't done just because it's barren, Bertha? Still has some decent vorticity with it, it should still be watched if it makes it's way into the Western Caribbean or BOC. (Even professionals make mistakes sometimes, and the models are effectively just tools to get a general idea of what MIGHT happen, and they are wrong more often than not no matter how technologically advanced they have become now or will become in the future)
Member Since: June 30, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
817. Gearsts
3:13 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 813. hydrus:

how so.? It did become invest 94L.....You said it wouldnt..
damn it
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2674
816. hydrus
3:12 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 773. georgevandenberghe:



My mind is like a well honed blade of tempered steel

... that's been left in the rain way too long.
In one of your posts, you claimed yourself a sociopath..Is that the truth.? Why post that.?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24522
815. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:09 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
814. wunderkidcayman
3:09 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting washingtonian115:
Me either.Something seems fake about him..He's the "Chief" meteorologist but I think they gave him that position based off looks and to attract a younger audience.

That's the thing I don't like about these days
These days it's all about looks or brawns
Before it use to be all about the experience/expertise or brain
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 13574
813. hydrus
3:08 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 797. Gearsts:

I think i won the bet ;)
how so.? It did become invest 94L.....You said it wouldnt..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24522
812. StormJunkie
3:08 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
WKC, according to the professionals, and all the major models. 94 is done. Kaput. I'll take their word for it. Anyway, this was always the most likely outcome for ex94. Time to glance E over the next few days.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
811. Envoirment
3:06 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Well, 2013 was looking better than this in terms of dry air around this time last year:



If our waves off Africa had that to work with, then I think we would seen some rather interesting systems. But for now it seems dry air will keep them in check for a little bit. Although we have 2 very strong waves coming our way who could beat out the dry air - the one currently coming off of Africa and the one behind.
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1109
810. washingtonian115
2:59 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 804. Climate175:

I have never liked that guy that much.
Me either.Something seems fake about him..He's the "Chief" meteorologist but I think they gave him that position based off looks and to attract a younger audience.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 19140
809. Tropicsweatherpr
2:59 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Pouch 017L has been introduced as a Tropical Wave on the 12z TAFB surface analysis.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15587
808. wunderkidcayman
2:59 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
94L is not dead yet

Vort at low to mid level (850,700,500) continues to stregnthen and consolidate

Conditions are like 95-98% good with only the SAL and dry air (more SAL than dry air though) mostly being an inhibiting factor

We should still keep close eye on this one it may just find that spot with even better conditions

Also I see a nice wave that just came off the African Coast reminds me of when 94L just came off

It may suffer the same short tem fate as 94L although it has one less inhibiting factor which would be dry air the wave is sitting in moist air

It's got less SAL than 94L has to deal with but it's still got a bit of it that it need to get through

Wave behind not bad
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 13574
807. hurricanes2018
2:58 PM GMT on August 12, 2014


anyone watching invest 99E
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 145 Comments: 124186
806. hurricanes2018
2:58 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 793. Skyepony:

Next!

nice tropical wave
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 145 Comments: 124186
805. odinslightning
2:58 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 792. sar2401:

No, it doesn't. It's dead. It was never going to organize before Wednesday at the earliest. I wrote you about that yesterday. Until these waves can spend a couple of days over water, we won't know if they have any staying power. It's up to you if you want to hang with every wave that comes off Africa. The vast majority, no matter how good they look over land, will not develop into even a depression. If the last couple of days of blog silliness with 94L doesn't convince you, I don't know what will.


it couldnt form
it a) is too far south (the magnets are netural, it cant spin)
b) even if it did form now a cane will not get huge and come across the atlantic....if it gets big far out in all likelihood it is gonna polar and hook n to go fish....

the stronger the storm, the more of a pull it feels from the magnetism from the pole....
but 94L is still a wave....look what it did to that pocket around the Horn in the past 36 hrs....
it has fired a LOT of convection....
it may not have held onto that convection, but it did tear the SAL apart with it.....
it may look like crap, but it is still a wave.....
not saying the 14 day outlooks on sunday were cool, u all know how i feel about that crap....
just keeping things in context.....
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
804. Climate175
2:56 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 802. washingtonian115:

They made this guy the "lead" met and fired the more professional one...

Wondered how that happened...
I have never liked that guy that much.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 5360
803. HurriHistory
2:56 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 792. sar2401:

No, it doesn't. It's dead. It was never going to organize before Wednesday at the earliest. I wrote you about that yesterday. Until these waves can spend a couple of days over water, we won't know if they have any staying power. It's up to you if you want to hang with every wave that comes off Africa. The vast majority, no matter how good they look over land, will not develop into even a depression. If the last couple of days of blog silliness with 94L doesn't convince you, I don't know what will.
I agree. No matter how good a Tropical Wave looks while it is over Africa (and as we know, some of these waves can look like full blown Cyclones), only a tiny percentage of them will ever amount to anything as they traverse the Atlantic. Putting every Tropical Wave under a microscope as it moves off the African Coast between August and October can drive you nuts.
Member Since: August 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 395
802. washingtonian115
2:54 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 777. EdMahmoud:

Aside- Dr. Frank field, on WNBC when I was wee one, was a medical doctor. In that sense, 'Doctor' was a bit misleading. However, the Army sent him to college to study met during WW2, so he was an actual meteorologist...
They made this guy the "lead" met and fired the more professional one...

Wondered how that happened...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 19140
801. sar2401
2:54 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting odinslightning:


yah that may be....
but it has done a toll on the SAL on the southeastern end around the Horn, for what it was worth....
here comes 95L though....
Do you check real close to make sure your steak's not moving before you put it on the grill too?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 20981
800. FOREX
2:52 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 793. Skyepony:

Next!

LOL. what???
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2343
799. odinslightning
2:52 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 778. sar2401:

94L's not getting anywhere. It's dead and gone. Officially.


yah that may be....
but it has done a toll on the SAL on the southeastern end around the Horn, for what it was worth....
here comes 95L though....
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
798. sar2401
2:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting StormJunkie:


It (or what could, possibly, maybe be it) already is. Not even fully detached from the continent yet. Waves just off the coast are almost always more impressive than they are a day or two later. Patience is the word of the month. ;-)
I rather agree with your proposal. No "X" until it has spent at least 72 hours over water. Maybe 10 years ago, it wouldn't have been as big of an issue, but now we have all the dark meteorological corners of the internet hoping on these, and the GFS ensemble running off them before there's even a decent CoC. Just leave them alone and let the nerds argue over clouds.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 20981
797. Gearsts
2:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 761. hydrus:

Both killers. I was east of Moorehaven when David hit. It was impressive.
I think i won the bet ;)
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2674
796. Tornado6042008X
2:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 789. EdMahmoud:
Getting to the time of year where the rate of change of day length and sun angle is becoming large enough to be noticeable. On the Equinox, the rate of change will be maximized.


I'm noticing the later sunrise and earlier sunsets now. You don't notice that a few weeks either side of the Solstice.
:(
Member Since: March 29, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
795. EdMahmoud
2:50 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
94L may be officially dead, but the wave is still there, and maybe is 7 or 10 days from trying to develop again. Glass 1/32nd full on 94L's corpse becoming a TC in the next two weeks, add a week and include the East Pac, 5/32nds full optimistic.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1152
794. odinslightning
2:49 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
i know some people wanna write off 94L due to a lack of cyclonic activity, but i think that may change once it gets past Antilles and organizes....the southern low rider track is keeping the cyclonic activity at a minimum....
i really think that may save this trash wave
if it did cyclone now it would chew huge SAL fast out of the northern quads
and then the wave really would die then.....

not saying 94L will fire....i am just saying that it has been impressive in creating convection on the southern deep SAL basin, and the GoM firing the humidity is really chewing into the SAL now....and that probably isn't gonna stop anytime soon now....its just that time of year....balmy as heck here!

the wave may look like crap presentation wise right now....but its a wave....and its made it this far.....so.....
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
793. Skyepony (Mod)
2:49 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Next!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 291 Comments: 41002
792. sar2401
2:45 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting FOREX:
Do you think 94L has a future?
No, it doesn't. It's dead. It was never going to organize before Wednesday at the earliest. I wrote you about that yesterday. Until these waves can spend a couple of days over water, we won't know if they have any staying power. It's up to you if you want to hang with every wave that comes off Africa. The vast majority, no matter how good they look over land, will not develop into even a depression. If the last couple of days of blog silliness with 94L doesn't convince you, I don't know what will.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 20981
791. EdMahmoud
2:45 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 787. StormJunkie:



There have been some changes made to the way the ftp server is handled in order to protect sensitive information from the dark meteorological corners of the internet. nrti has more info if around?


Thanks.

I've also noticed when NHC is close to pulling the trigger on an invest, the lat/long forecast fed to SHIPS is hidden, and replaced by 'xx.x'. Distance to land still there, and since the official NHC forecast on an actual system is almost always very close to the consensus, I don't know why they need to hide that.

But they do. Early in the life of an invest they use the medium BAM.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1152
790. HaoleboySurfEC
2:45 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 777. EdMahmoud:

Aside- Dr. Frank field, on WNBC when I was wee one, was a medical doctor. In that sense, 'Doctor' was a bit misleading. However, the Army sent him to college to study met during WW2, so he was an actual meteorologist...


Channel 4 NY with Chuck Scarborough and Jack Cafferty I believe. He was the real deal.
Member Since: July 20, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115
789. EdMahmoud
2:41 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Getting to the time of year where the rate of change of day length and sun angle is becoming large enough to be noticeable. On the Equinox, the rate of change will be maximized.


I'm noticing the later sunrise and earlier sunsets now. You don't notice that a few weeks either side of the Solstice.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1152
788. FOREX
2:39 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 783. StormJunkie:



Well that particular image is a picture of a computer screen. Can see the reflection of a plant in a window in the upper right. Not sure why one wouldn't just use a screen shot. ;-)

Can you tell what kind of plant? We can all argue about that for the next 8 days.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2343
787. StormJunkie
2:39 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 784. EdMahmoud:

Anybody have the current link to invests being activated, upgraded and deactivated? Used to be on the NHC ftp server, where I still see the full SHIPS model, but I don't see the list of invests and numbered storms...


There have been some changes made to the way the ftp server is handled in order to protect sensitive information from the dark meteorological corners of the internet. nrti has more info if around?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
786. weathermanwannabe
2:38 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
The Dog days of summer are right now for me............I walk my 10 year old Chocolate Lab every morning around 6:30; been incredibly nice and cool in the early am here in North Florida the past few weeks (in spite of blistering heat by noon).  Yesterday and today, I busted out in a hot sweat walking the dog for 10 minutes............................
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10441
785. FOREX
2:37 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 782. HurriHistory:

Who? 94L or Robin Williams.
Both.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2343
784. EdMahmoud
2:36 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Anybody have the current link to invests being activated, upgraded and deactivated? Used to be on the NHC ftp server, where I still see the full SHIPS model, but I don't see the list of invests and numbered storms...
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1152
783. StormJunkie
2:36 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 771. FOREX:

what site do you get this from?


Well that particular image is a picture of a computer screen. Can see the reflection of a plant in a window in the upper right. Not sure why one wouldn't just use a screen shot. ;-)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
782. HurriHistory
2:34 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 779. JRRP:

R.I.P
Who? 94L or Robin Williams.
Member Since: August 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 395
781. FOREX
2:34 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 779. JRRP:

R.I.P


Now time to watch the new wave.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2343
780. StormJunkie
2:33 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 775. sar2401:

I wonder if 95L will still breed the same high level of of excitement that we had with 94L?


It (or what could, possibly, maybe be it) already is. Not even fully detached from the continent yet. Waves just off the coast are almost always more impressive than they are a day or two later. Patience is the word of the month. ;-)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
779. JRRP
2:32 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
R.I.P
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6428
778. sar2401
2:32 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting odinslightning:
holy moly

i am impressed at what the balmy GoM and 94L (to a small degree) have done to the SAL....
36 hrs ago....we had brick red solid from HoA to Less. Antilles....now its yellow with pockets of brick red, and fading fast....
sets the stage for that 92L or 95L right behind this low rider.....maybe just enough SAL and H pressure to make it railroad to Americas instead of fishing quickly because of strength....yet not enough SAL to really kill 92L or 95L down? hmmmm...

anyway good morning.....another hot balmy day ahead along the Emerald Coast....Sun is just rising and it's already in the mid 80's and humidity is deep....everything outside is drenched in dew.....about to create more SAL killing air all along the GOM today.....

i wonder if the remaining pocket of SAL around the Antilles will be yellow gone by the time 94L gets there....
the past 36 hours of moisture being fed all through the SAL has taken its toll on the dry air.....
94L's not getting anywhere. It's dead and gone. Officially.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 20981
777. EdMahmoud
2:31 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Aside- Dr. Frank field, on WNBC when I was wee one, was a medical doctor. In that sense, 'Doctor' was a bit misleading. However, the Army sent him to college to study met during WW2, so he was an actual meteorologist...
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1152
776. georgevandenberghe
2:30 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting Seattleite:


I wonder what temp would constitute a heat advisory there? I've seen Heat Warnings in Seattle posted for 93F before. Having lived in the south, it still bemuses me sometimes... Wait, wasn't Alaska under heat advisories last year?


Yes. The interior gets hot regularly and an easterly flow under a big high to the north in summer can make the panhandle really hot also (rare). But it seems not possible yet for Barrow.
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 2964
775. sar2401
2:30 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting StormJunkie:


Yes. 94 is no more. Sent to the rubbish bin.

Good catch by the way.
I wonder if 95L will still breed the same high level of of excitement that we had with 94L?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 20981
774. EdMahmoud
2:29 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 767. Stats56:

755

Mike Iscovitz (Ch 26) has a BS in Meterology from FSU


Forgot. He was on a Lafayette, LA station when I lived there, and they take their weather seriously in South Louisiana. Guy named Rob Perillo, maybe sharpest TV met ever, but doomed to small market Lafayette as he is short and balding...
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1152
773. georgevandenberghe
2:28 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting Astrometeor:


Hey, a battle of wits is about all you can do. If we do a real battle, I'm afraid I might mortally wound you with nary a touch.


My mind is like a well honed blade of tempered steel

... that's been left in the rain way too long.
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 2964
772. StormTrackerScott
2:28 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
This rain appears to be building toward the northside of Orlando later on.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 14 Comments: 7686
771. FOREX
2:27 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
Quoting 768. hurricanes2018:



nice looking tropical wave here!
what site do you get this from?
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2343
770. StormTrackerScott
2:26 PM GMT on August 12, 2014
4" to 6" of rain across the nature Coast so far this morning with more heavy rain training in.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 14 Comments: 7686

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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