African Wave 94L Worth Watching; Halong Kills 9 in Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:58 PM GMT on August 10, 2014

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A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Saturday was located near 11°N, 21°W on Sunday morning, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC . Satellite loops show the wave has a modest amount of spin and respectable amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 94L is located in a fairly moist environment, with the dry air coming off of Africa located well to the north and west of the disturbance. Wind shear was a high 25 - 30 knots, but the 8 am EDT Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the moderate range on Monday afternoon, then to the low range on Tuesday afternoon. The wave is headed west at 15 - 20 mph, and should arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday, according to the Sunday morning runs of the GFS and European models. None of the reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation develop 94L, but about 1/3 of the 20 members of the GFS model ensemble show development late this week (the GFS ensemble is a set of 20 runs of the GFS model done at lower resolution with slightly different initial conditions to generate an uncertainty "plume" of model runs.) In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 30%, respectively. Mid-August is the time when the Atlantic hurricane season kicks into high gear, and 94L is definitely a disturbance we need to watch.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image from approximately 9 am EDT August 10, 2014, showing Invest 94L off the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verde Islands. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Halong hits Japan
Slow-moving Tropical Storm Halong finally made landfall in Southern Japan near Aki city, Kōchi Prefecture, at approximately 5 pm EDT Saturday (6 am Sunday in Japan.) Despite weakening to a 70 mph tropical storm before landfall, Halong dumped extremely dangerous heavy rains over Southern Japan, with storm total rainfall amounts in excess of one meter in some locations. A rare "emergency weather warning" (tokubetsu keihō) for the Mie Prefecture was issued on Saturday by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Hakusan in the Mie Prefecture had nearly 17 inches of rain on Saturday, breaking its all-time 24-hour rainfall record set just last year in Typhoon Man-yi. The top winds near landfall, reported at Cape Muroto, were 94 mph, gusting to 117 mph (42.1 m/s gusting to 52.5 m/s). At least nine people were killed and 70 injured in the floods, according to the Japan Times.


Figure 2. Radar image of Tropical Storm Halong making landfall on the coast of Japan at 6:50 pm EDT August 9, 2014 (05:50 JST August 10) . Halong had 70 mph winds at the time. Image credit: Japan Met Agency.

Jeff Masters

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990. JRRP
3:35 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Eric Webb ‏@webberweather 10 min
@hurrtrackerapp SAL is not the problem, it's a quintessential part to AEJ, but the CCKW & MJO forcing has decoupled
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6165
989. Patrap
3:01 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Dats a Jerry Garcia Loaf Gro.

Your off by 4 decades.

: P
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
988. Patrap
3:00 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Pass the Tabasco please'...

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
987. Grothar
2:59 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
I even like rainbow bread.





99E

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26856
986. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:58 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
985. Skyepony (Mod)
2:57 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
After 24hrs BAMD is in the lead for which model is doing best with 94L, with 24.3nm of error. Overall the models aren't doing all that well so far on this disturbance.


Ran across this new movie out "Arctic Emergency: Scientists Speak". Jeff Masters is featured pretty heavily in it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 38658
984. sar2401
2:57 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting hurricanehunter5753:
Haha just got out of a 2.5 hour exam. I come here to get away from that.
I take it you like food fights in the cafeteria then. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16298
983. Grothar
2:54 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 981. Astrometeor:



I was surprised to not see a new blog, usually there's one right as I wake up.


Why are you getting up so late?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26856
982. sar2401
2:54 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting LargoFl:
Just a comment, just my own personal opinion here ok..but...there are ALOT of people who read this blog but dont post..and by some on here saying its dead or will die....gives those people the impression there's no need to watch and quite possibly Not prepare for a possibly storm.....just we need to be very cautious in how we say things on here ok...94L is NOT dead and still moving across the atlantic................
Largo, how many people in the world do you think know what an "invest" is? My guess is that most of them are here. We're called weather nerds. As far as the general public is concerned, nothing is going on right now. This is all the usual juvenile back and forth that most of us pay no attention to. Now, once we have a tropical storm, we need to be careful of what we write and how we write it since there will be many members of the general public reading. Right now, it's all fortune telling.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16298
981. Astrometeor
2:54 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 970. Grothar:

The Doc should be on in a few minutes, so I won't post anything important.


I was surprised to not see a new blog, usually there's one right as I wake up.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10425
980. KoritheMan
2:50 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 973. EdMahmoud:

Quick check of CIMSS, Caribbean blob is light on vorticity at all levels, not good, but shear is light, even a hint of an anticyclone over the top, and low level convergence and upper divergence couplet.

Lack of pre-existing spin won't help, however. Hint at 700 mb level, but just a hint.

But I like colorful blobs.




It's not likely, but there's a nonzero chance that the TUTT could sustain convection long enough to generate a surface low underneath that mess.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21094
978. hurricanehunter5753
2:46 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 974. sar2401:

Not soon enough...
Haha just got out of a 2.5 hour exam. I come here to get away from that.
Member Since: July 14, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 43
977. EdMahmoud
2:43 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 975. sar2401:

Yes. You and Gro with that rainbow.


Psychedelic.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1132
976. EdMahmoud
2:42 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Balancing lack of spectral model support versus decent satellite, I remain glass 3/16ths optimistic on 94L becoming at least a TD.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1132
975. sar2401
2:41 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting EdMahmoud:
Quick check of CIMSS, Caribbean blob is light on vorticity at all levels, not good, but shear is light, even a hint of an anticyclone over the top, and low level convergence and upper divergence couplet.

Lack of pre-existing spin won't help, however. Hint at 700 mb level, but just a hint.

But I like colorful blobs.

Yes. You and Gro with that rainbow.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16298
974. sar2401
2:40 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting LargoFl:
when does school start again?
Not soon enough...
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16298
973. EdMahmoud
2:40 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quick check of CIMSS, Caribbean blob is light on vorticity at all levels, not good, but shear is light, even a hint of an anticyclone over the top, and low level convergence and upper divergence couplet.

Lack of pre-existing spin won't help, however. Hint at 700 mb level, but just a hint.

But I like colorful blobs.

Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1132
972. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:37 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 966. Jedkins01:



Models expected it to be north of Tampa Bay, but like yesterday, they are wrong in that there is convergence across Tampa Bay as well. The models had the showers and thunderstorms north of Tampa Bay yesterday, we ended up getting some good activity yesterday. The same is happening today as well.

The funny thing is, the atmosphere is not more moist the last couple days than earlier this week. Its the same air mass, the difference is that there is more low level convergence and forcing mechanism to lift the moist air. Its still not ideal. If we had even weak low pressure present, we'd be getting soaked given the high moisture and warm water. Its just hard to get rain over water without low pressure present. Thankfully we are getting some low level convergence.
So when we do have the onshore flow it all depends on the convergence, if that is not present then the onshore flow tends to push everything inland, leaving the coastal areas dry. Also, will it be like this the rest of the day or is this the morning coastal showers and afternoon inland thunderstorms set-up?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8677
970. Grothar
2:35 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
The Doc should be on in a few minutes, so I won't post anything important.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26856
969. EdMahmoud
2:34 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Low tech BAM models scream fish, the Florida hurricane model GEFS mean isn't quite as fishy. SHIPS shows Easterly shear easing up in two days, just as mid level RH tanks.

Even if the blob isn't technically 94L, I'd think persistent thunderstorms might do that whole latent heat of condensation/building a warm core and lowering surface pressures better than the convectionless official 94L, and if I were King of NHC, I'd reposition 94L to match the most apparent spin in the blob.

Two nice blobs to watch, even if models aren't encouraging...

Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1132
968. Gearsts
2:34 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 962. hurricanes2018:




watch out invest 94L THE DRY AIR IS GOING TO EAT YOU FOR LUNCH MY FRIEND
Maybe if we keep spamming the atlantic loop 94L will develop ;) It work for Bertha.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
967. LargoFl
2:32 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
well IF it can remain intact till it gets to the Islands....doesnt have to build up right now...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
966. Jedkins01
2:32 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 960. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Onshore flow being generous along the West Coast of FL. this morning.




Models expected it to be north of Tampa Bay, but like yesterday, they are wrong in that there is convergence across Tampa Bay as well. The models had the showers and thunderstorms north of Tampa Bay yesterday, we ended up getting some good activity yesterday. The same is happening today as well.

The funny thing is, the atmosphere is not more moist the last couple days than earlier this week. Its the same air mass, the difference is that there is more low level convergence and forcing mechanism to lift the moist air. Its still not ideal. If we had even weak low pressure present, we'd be getting soaked given the high moisture and warm water. Its just hard to get rain over water without low pressure present. Thankfully we are getting some low level convergence.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7833
965. silas
2:31 PM GMT on August 11, 2014

Quoting LargoFl:
Just a comment, just my own personal opinion here ok..but...there are ALOT of people who read this blog but dont post..and by some on here saying its dead or will die....gives those people the impression there's no need to watch and quite possibly Not prepare for a possibly storm.....just we need to be very cautious in how we say things on here ok...94L is NOT dead and still moving across the atlantic................
I'm certain that there ARE a lot of people who come here that don't comment. I know that I'm on here several times a day most days but sometimes I'll go weeks without commenting. But that doesn't mean that others and I want to come here and read doomcasting about 94L becoming some dangerous hurricane. There's absolutely no value in hyping 94L right now. It's not even close to being a TD yet and it still has a loooong way to go before it nears land. Not saying we should downplay it, it could be a long term threat, but right now people need to relax...
Member Since: June 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 194
964. LargoFl
2:29 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 962. hurricanes2018:




watch out invest 94L THE DRY AIR IS GOING TO EAT YOU FOR LUNCH MY FRIEND
when does school start again?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
963. LargoFl
2:28 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
962. hurricanes2018
2:26 PM GMT on August 11, 2014



watch out invest 94L THE DRY AIR IS GOING TO EAT YOU FOR LUNCH MY FRIEND
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 48 Comments: 80154
961. LargoFl
2:25 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 955. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That would be a Georges like track. Of course it is too far out, but something to keep an eye on in regards to trends.
yeah yesterday there was possibly a mexico strike now florida..we have alot of days to watch this one.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
960. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:24 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Onshore flow being generous along the West Coast of FL. this morning.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8677
959. Envoirment
2:21 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Well, 94L and the wave over the Lesser Antilles has packed a good punch into the dry air so far:





Hopefully they'll continue to get rid of the dry air. Also it's a good sign that 94L has been able to get rid of so much, whilst still managing to maintain some really good convection (albeit a bit far from the center - but I assume that it'll be humecting the environment ahead of it, allowing it to create itself a nice moisture blanket for the future).
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 975
958. wunderweatherman123
2:17 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 955. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That would be a Georges like track. Of course it is too far out, but something to keep an eye on in regards to trends.
unfortunately, the ensembles aren't as excited as they were yesterday
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1726
957. islander101010
2:16 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
this time of yr i try to keep the fuel in the car full. good luck everyone this cv season. dont forget when you look at 94 models there should be another one about a wk after that. will it follow 94?
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4886
956. KoritheMan
2:15 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 951. LargoFl:

Just a comment, just my own personal opinion here ok..but...there are ALOT of people who read this blog but dont post..and by some on here saying its dead or will die....gives those people the impression there's no need to watch and quite possibly Not prepare for a possibly storm.....just we need to be very cautious in how we say things on here ok...94L is NOT dead and still moving across the atlantic................


As I said the other day, there are significantly more people here that don't know what they're talking about than those who do.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21094
955. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:15 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 949. LargoFl:


That would be a Georges like track. Of course it is too far out, but something to keep an eye on in regards to trends.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8677
954. MahFL
2:15 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Can you imagine the HYPE when a Cat 3 eventually does make landfall on the US coastline.....
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3699
953. Gearsts
2:15 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 951. LargoFl:

Just a comment, just my own personal opinion here ok..but...there are ALOT of people who read this blog but dont post..and by some on here saying its dead or will die....gives those people the impression there's no need to watch and quite possibly Not prepare for a possibly storm.....just we need to be very cautious in how we say things on here ok...94L is NOT dead and still moving across the atlantic................
Everyone should always follow the NHC for official information.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
952. weatherman994
2:11 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
951. LargoFl well said Largo
Member Since: July 24, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
951. LargoFl
2:08 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Just a comment, just my own personal opinion here ok..but...there are ALOT of people who read this blog but dont post..and by some on here saying its dead or will die....gives those people the impression there's no need to watch and quite possibly Not prepare for a possibly storm.....just we need to be very cautious in how we say things on here ok...94L is NOT dead and still moving across the atlantic................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
950. MahFL
2:07 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 949. LargoFl:




I pick the AP03 track.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3699
949. LargoFl
2:03 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
948. LargoFl
2:02 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
947. weatherman994
2:01 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
I'd rather watch into the storm than sharknado 2 because into the storm is far more serious than sharknado 2 it actually shows you the power of a monster tornado
Member Since: July 24, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 363
946. wunderweatherman123
2:00 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 941. Gearsts:

Next image almost all members drop it.
well that's unfortunate :(
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1726
945. hurricanes2018
1:58 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
invest 94L wll die out soon I see notting happern to it dry air will kill the storm off
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 48 Comments: 80154
944. hurricanes2018
1:52 PM GMT on August 11, 2014


maybe new center in the t.storms! who knows!!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 48 Comments: 80154
943. Gearsts
1:51 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 940. JRRP:


Will take time to get anything going.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
942. MahFL
1:50 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 901. StormTrackerScott:
...in the dead of summer...


It's the height of Summer and the dead of Winter, lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3699
941. Gearsts
1:48 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Quoting 935. wunderweatherman123:

ensembles more excited then operational runs of all the models.
Next image almost all members drop it.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
940. JRRP
1:47 PM GMT on August 11, 2014
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6165

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.