Iselle Dissipates; Rare Emergency Warning for Tropical Storm Halong in Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:59 PM GMT on August 09, 2014

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Tropical Storm Iselle has dissipated after making landfall along the southeast shore of Hawaii's Big Island near 9 am EDT (3 am HST) Friday as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Iselle is only the second tropical storm on record to hit the Big Island, and was the strongest. Iselle brought torrential rains of up to 4" per hour to the Big Island; two locations received over 14" of rain. Iselle did considerable damage on the Big Island, downing trees, knocking down power lines, and damaging a few homes in Hawaiian Paradise Park in Puna. About 22,000 customers lost power during the height of the storm on the Big Island; power had been restored to all but 9,000 by Saturday morning. About 1900 customers lost power on Oahu, and 8,000 on Maui.


Figure 1. Damage to power lines on the Big Island on August 8, 2014, from Tropical Storm Iselle. Image credit: Hawaiian Electric Companies.

Some peak wind gusts and rainfall amounts from Iselle:

72 mph gust at Oahu Forest mesonet site on Oahu (2300')
68 mph gust at Kaneola, HI (815')
91 mph gust at Mauna Kea on the Big Island (13,700')
62 mph gust at Lanai
61 mph gust at Kula, Maui
57 mph gust at Molokai
54 mph gust at Hilo Airport

14.51", Kulani NWR
14.28", Saddle Quarry
13.90", Glenwood
12.52", Hakalu
12.19", Pua Akala
3.61", Hilo Airport

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an interesting post showing how Iselle's rainfall on the Big Island fell in climatologically favored regions that receive heavy rains at other times of year.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Iselle from 23:15 UTC (7:15 pm EDT) August 7, 2014. At the time, the outer spiral bands of the 80 mph Category 1 hurricane were spreading over the Big Island of Hawaii. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Score: Mauna Loa 1, Iselle 0. The twin 13,000' peaks of the Big Island, Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea, seriously disrupted Tropical Storm Iselle as its center crossed the southern portion of the Big Island, as seen in this true-color MODIS image from approximately 21:15 UTC (5:15 pm EDT) August 8, 2014. At the time, Iselle had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Julio expected to skirt Hawaii
Hurricane Julio continues to steadily weaken, and was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds at 11 am EDT Saturday morning. Satellite loops show that the cloud tops of Julio's heavy thunderstorms have warmed and the eye is no longer distinct. The storm should be able to take advantage of light to moderate wind shear and marginally warm sea surface temperatures near 26°C and maintain at least Category 1 status until Sunday morning. Fortunately, it is looking increasingly likely that Julio will not have a major impact on the Hawaiian Islands. The Saturday morning runs of our top track models all predicted that the center of Julio would pass 100 - 400 miles northeast of the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday and Monday. On this path, Julio's core of heavy rains and wind would miss the islands, and high surf would be the main impact of the storm. The edge of Julio's cone of uncertainly for Sunday no longer lies over the islands.



Figure 4. Super Typhoon Genevieve as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite on 01:30 UTC August 8, 2014. In the infrared image (top), note how the temperature in the eye was as warm as 25°C, while the coldest cloud tops of the eyewall thunderstorms were -80°C, indicating that they had risen very high into the atmosphere where the air is cold. At the time, Genevieve was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/CIRA.

Typhoon Genevieve not a threat to land
What was formerly Hurricane Genevieve is now Typhoon Genevieve, after the storm crossed the International Date Line from east to west early Thursday. There is no difference between a North Pacific hurricane and a typhoon other than its location--if the storm is west of the Date Line, it is called a typhoon, and if it is east of the Date Line, it is called a hurricane. Genevieve put on a spectacular display of rapid intensification, going from a tropical storm with 60 mph winds to a Category 5 super typhoon with 160 mph winds in just 27 hours, from 09 UTC August 6 to 12 UTC August 7. Genevieve spent 24 hours as a Category 5 storm, but weakened to a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds as of Saturday at 8 am EDT. Satellite images show that Genevieve is still an impressive storm with a large eye surrounded by intense eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. Fortunately, Genevieve is not expected to threaten any land areas.


Figure 5. Radar image of Tropical Storm Halong nearing the coast of Japan at 9:55 am EDT (22:55 JST) August 9, 2014. Halong had 70 mph winds at the time. Image credit: Japan Met Agency.

Rare emergency warning for Tropical Storm Halong in Japan
In the Western Pacific, slow-moving Tropical Storm Halong weakened to a 70 mph tropical storm Saturday, but is dumping dangerous heavy rains into Southern Japan. A rare "emergency weather warning" (tokubetsu keihō) for the Mie Prefecture was issued on Saturday by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Hakusan in the Mie Prefecture had nearly 17 inches of rain on Saturday, breaking its all-time 24-hour rainfall record set just last year in Typhoon Man-yi. The Sukumo observation site in Kōchi prefecture set an all-time calendar-day record rainfall today of 327.5 mm (12.89 inches) with records dating back to 1943. Rainfall rates have been 1 to 2 inches pre hour across most of Kōchi Prefecture on Saturday. As of 9 pm JST Saturday, the center of Halong was 60 km (35 mi) south of Cape Ashizuri, Kōchi Prefecture; the Shimizu observation site, 5 miles northwest of that cape, clocked an 83-mph gust at 9:23pm JST (8:23am US EDT). That's the highest gust anywhere in Japan (including the smaller southern islands) so far Saturday their time. Farther east, Cape Muroto clocked a sustained wind of 27.0 m/s (60 mph) at 9:58pm JST (8:58am US EDT), the top sustained wind for all of Japan today. Source: JMA (thanks to TWC's Nick Wiltgen for these stats.) Satellite loops show that Halong is a very large system, and the rains from this massive, slow-moving storm are going to cause serious flooding problems in Japan.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predicts development over the next five days. The African Monsoon will crank out strong tropical waves that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Wednesday and next Saturday. The peak part of the Atlantic hurricane season usually begins in mid-August, so we will need to start paying extra attention to these tropical waves.

Jeff Masters

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649. LargoFl
7:11 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311
648. barbamz
2:59 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
632. European58
02:23 PM GMT am 10. August 2014


Thanks, Hans, welcome, my pleasure. Still quiet at my place (Mainz) too. Some smaller thunderstorms of a preliminary zone of convergence (as far as I know) passed me to the North. All eyes are on the development of the cold front which is now entering Belgium.




Lowest pressure of Ex-Bertha over the east coast of UK now 988hPa.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6040
647. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:58 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
646. Chicklit
2:57 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
645. hydrus
2:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Quoting 621. JRRP:


I am wondering how much dust this invest will clear, and how much more of the Sahara will end up over the Atlantic.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
644. HurriHistory
2:54 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Yes, 94L is looking very good at the moment, however it should soon encounter a wall of dry air which will most likely cause it to die a slow death. It's like a roach that walks on your kitchen floor in the middle of the night looking for water or food and then steps over the area that you sprayed with BlackFlag or Raid and he starts to go into convulsions and flips over on his back and dies.
Member Since: August 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 257
643. prcane4you
2:51 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Quoting 639. Chicklit:

morning, everyone...so are 94L and the wave right behind it far enough apart to be considered separate entities?


Looks like that.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1213
642. prcane4you
2:50 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Quoting 639. Chicklit:

morning, everyone...so are 94L and the wave right behind it far enough apart to be considered separate entities?


Looks like that.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1213
641. Chicklit
2:50 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
640. hydrus
2:49 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Quoting 629. ryang:

Allan Huffman
‏@RaleighWx
Easterly shear of 20-30 knots should limit intensification 1st 24-36 hours. Shear then relaxes, but marginal SST of 25-27C for several days.
Good vorticity with the T waves this season. That will increase there chance of survival across the Atlantic. Could be a very important aspect as the seasonal peak approaches.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
639. Chicklit
2:48 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
morning, everyone...so are 94L and the wave right behind it far enough apart to be considered separate entities?

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
638. weatherlover94
2:44 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Out ahead of it moisture is quickly dwindling and being replaced by dry air....personally I don't see how this has much of a chance and once it moves a little farther west it will be the end of it unless things get better which they could


Link
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2209
637. prcane4you
2:40 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Quoting 634. JRRP:


SYNOPSIS 2014081000

P13L (NHC: 10% 2-day / 30% 5-day)
13N, 19W
700 hPa

ECMWF: Large, easily-tracked pouch all 120 hours, but the circulation remains weak the entire time.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF. Weak enough that it has an erratic track in the 84-96 hour period.

UKMET: Stronger than in other models. Gains more latitude as well, but then quickly weakens on Day 4.

NAVGEM: Distinct pouch in the analysis is then stretched zonally and dissipates after only 60 hours.
What a shame.....Poor hurricanes lovers.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1213
636. wunderweatherman123
2:37 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
GFS ensembles just show what will happen if SOMETHING survives going into the W.caribbean. definately something to watch :)
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1725
635. weatherlover94
2:36 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Hi everybody it looks like we now have invest 94 L to watch....fun in the coming days ...but will it lead to disappointment or a major Hurricane Christobal ?...time will tell and i'm along for the ride
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2209
634. JRRP
2:33 PM GMT on August 10, 2014

SYNOPSIS 2014081000

P13L (NHC: 10% 2-day / 30% 5-day)
13N, 19W
700 hPa

ECMWF: Large, easily-tracked pouch all 120 hours, but the circulation remains weak the entire time.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF. Weak enough that it has an erratic track in the 84-96 hour period.

UKMET: Stronger than in other models. Gains more latitude as well, but then quickly weakens on Day 4.

NAVGEM: Distinct pouch in the analysis is then stretched zonally and dissipates after only 60 hours.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5986
633. washingtonian115
2:33 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Quoting 631. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Surprisingly the ships isn't predicting a cat 5 :).lol.It could pull a Helen from 2012 with a more northern route.A T.D in the MDR then weaken in the eastern caribbean and probably re-intensify again in the N.W caribbean.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17095
632. European58
2:23 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Quoting 611. barbamz:

For those who are interested: European Storm Forecast Experiment has published a new mesoscale discussion, and I'm on the eastern edge of the possibly affected area:

Excerpt:
Widespread storm development along the front and along the eastern line are expected during the coming hours. Given the strong shear, the storms will include supercells with strong low-level mesocyclones. A tornado threat will therefore exist with these storms. These tornadoes may be strong.


Hello Barbamz,
sure I'm interested. So far only light rain and a bit breezy here in Dordrecht, Netherlands.
Doesn't look to be(come) very serious around here.
By the way, thanks for your nice posts!
Hans
Member Since: September 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 86
631. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:23 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8456
630. victoria780
2:22 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Looks like from looking at the 7 day 500 mb heights ,trough will come down in the easten us,then high pressure will move in and shunt any storms in the carib.further west,Gulf me be the target.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
629. ryang
2:21 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Allan Huffman
‏@RaleighWx
Easterly shear of 20-30 knots should limit intensification 1st 24-36 hours. Shear then relaxes, but marginal SST of 25-27C for several days.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12440
628. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:21 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Quoting 625. CaribBoy:



And so it the fight for Caribbean Cruiser or not.
Good morning everyone I see we have 94L, early indications look to be Caribbean bound of course things can change this far out and it still has to go through the stable environment now known as the MDR.





Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8456
627. washingtonian115
2:18 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
If it wasn't for the dry air Bertha could have been a impressive cape verde storm once again.But the dry air has been a killer/problem for 3 years now.

I want to be optimistic but with the way dry air has been killing things it's hard to get really excited with disappointment after disappointment.If it wasn't for the dry air then what we laugh at now (tropical waves/blobs) could have been storms that we were biting our nails over in other years like 2004 or 2005.

Rant over.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17095
626. sporteguy03
2:18 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Quoting 624. prcane4you:

The fight for fish or not is just begin.

Needs to develop first which I think will take a few days. Also 94L is at least a week away from the islands. I only look at models up to 5 days for track anything over 5 is speculation.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5351
625. CaribBoy
2:16 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Quoting 624. prcane4you:

The fight for fish or not is just begin.


And so it the fight for Caribbean Cruiser or not.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6240
624. prcane4you
2:11 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Quoting 613. luvtogolf:



Way way too early to say that.
The fight for fish or not is just begin.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1213
623. hurricanes2018
2:10 PM GMT on August 10, 2014


ONLY MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH..
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 53939
622. HurricaneAndre
2:09 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Guys I think codec orange 48hours in the next TWO.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3212
621. JRRP
2:06 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5986
620. hurricanes2018
2:01 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
we have invest 94L WOW!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 53939
619. hydrus
2:00 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
618. Climate175
2:00 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
22 more days until Meteorological Fall.
43 days until the Official First Day of Fall.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4183
617. washingtonian115
1:57 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
MAweatherboy1

Actually shear has been low in the extreme N.W caribbean and gulf.We've just been lacking a disturbance and that's where the warmest waters are.So if the wave does survive it's track across the MDR and the Atlantic it will have to be closely monitored.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17095
616. HaoleboySurfEC
1:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Quoting 614. Climate175:

Last punch of Summer?


Hope so. I want more 90's + and sun before September is done. This summer in SC has been grey, cool and damp.
Member Since: July 20, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
615. juracanpr1
1:54 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Folks, don't desperate with 94L or with each model run, just wait, observe carefully with a good time dose and... then your conclusions could be more reasonable!
Good morning, I will come back tonight or tomorrow evening.
Member Since: August 2, 2014 Posts: 1 Comments: 121
614. Climate175
1:49 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Last punch of Summer?
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4183
612. JRRP
1:47 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Lol, can you imagine the blog if this happened? This is one of 20 GFS ensemble members from the 6z run. Major hurricane into New Orleans. NOT to be taken seriously, but it does show what could happen if a system had favorable conditions in that area.



You can see another member taking a strong hurricane in south of the TX/Mexico border here-

yeah and another member
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5986
611. barbamz
1:46 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
For those who are interested: European Storm Forecast Experiment has published a new mesoscale discussion, and I'm on the eastern edge of the possibly affected area:

Excerpt:
Widespread storm development along the front and along the eastern line are expected during the coming hours. Given the strong shear, the storms will include supercells with strong low-level mesocyclones. A tornado threat will therefore exist with these storms. These tornadoes may be strong.

Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6040
610. juracanpr1
1:46 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Quoting 608. CaribBoy:



Jean Bay in St Barts (Northern Leeward Islands)

Thanks, Good looking place. I Visited only St. Thomas 20 years ago (aboard the former Scandinavian Song ship). Tourism in that zone should be heavy.
Member Since: August 2, 2014 Posts: 1 Comments: 121
609. slavicthunder
1:45 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
I would say Happy Cape Verde Season kickoff party but it sounds like there isn't much optimism for 94L at this time.
Member Since: August 5, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
608. CaribBoy
1:40 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Quoting 606. juracanpr1:


Beautiful coast view, Which is the place?


St. Jean Bay in St Barts (Northern Leeward Islands)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6240
607. MAweatherboy1
1:38 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Lol, can you imagine the blog if this happened? This is one of 20 GFS ensemble members from the 6z run. Major hurricane into New Orleans. NOT to be taken seriously, but it does show what could happen if a system had favorable conditions in that area.



You can see another member taking a strong hurricane in south of the TX/Mexico border here-
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7839
606. juracanpr1
1:38 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Quoting 604. CaribBoy:

Still need a lot of rain



Beautiful coast view, Which is the place?
Member Since: August 2, 2014 Posts: 1 Comments: 121
605. juracanpr1
1:35 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Good Morning Folks. The Blog will explode again (may be) with 94 L
Member Since: August 2, 2014 Posts: 1 Comments: 121
604. CaribBoy
1:34 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Still need a lot of rain

Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6240
603. MAweatherboy1
1:32 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
94L will be one to watch, any wave this vigorous is worth watching, but it will struggle to become anything strong with the dry, stable air out there. We'll see if it can survive into the Caribbean and maybe develop there. Of course, it may not even go into the Caribbean, we shouldn't lock it in as a low rider from just a couple model runs.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7839
602. hurricanewatcher61
1:32 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Question, lets just say and I know we are a long way out, but if 94L takes the southern route and it in enters the Caribbean as a hurricane and can maintain its self would it have the chance to go through the yucatan or stay south?
Member Since: June 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 309
601. Fla727
1:31 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
94L looks like it might be a fish.
Member Since: July 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
600. ackee
1:26 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
Good morning seem like the Epac and western pacfic has quiet down and the atlantic is waking up let's see if 94L will devlopment and be something intresting to track
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1373
599. FOREX
1:24 PM GMT on August 10, 2014
94L floater is up.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.