Climate Change May Increase the Number of Hawaiian Hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:02 AM GMT on August 06, 2014

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The Eastern Pacific is a busy place for tropical storms and hurricanes, with an average of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes forming each year. However, these plentiful storms rarely affect Hawaii. The predominant storm track is well to the south of the Hawaiian Islands, and the air tends to be dry and ocean temperatures relatively cool near the islands, making it difficult for a storm to make it there intact. But with two tropical storms potentially threatening the islands in the coming week, and Tropical Storm Flossie having passed with 100 miles of the islands in 2013, it is fair to ask, could climate change be increasing the odds of tropical storms and hurricanes affecting the Hawaiian Islands? A 2013 modeling study published in Nature Climate Change, "Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii", found that global warming is expected to increase the incidence of tropical storms and hurricanes in Hawaii. Lead author Hiroyuki Murakami, from the International Pacific Research Center at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, commented in a press release accompanying the paper: "In our study, we looked at all tropical cyclones, which range in intensity from tropical storms to full-blown Category 5 hurricanes. From 1979 to 2003, both observational records and our model document that only every four years on average did a tropical cyclone come near Hawaii. Our projections for the end of this century show a two-to-three-fold increase for this region."


Figure 1. Projected change in number of tropical cyclones per year by the last quarter of this century in the 2013 Murakami et al. modeling study published in Nature Climate Change, "Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii" (in this study, tropical cyclones were defined as only tropical storms and hurricanes, though the general term "tropical cyclones" usually includes tropical depressions as well.) The frequency of a tropical cyclone in a 5°x5° area over the Hawaiian Islands increased from about 0.7 - 1.2 storms per year to about 2 - 3 storms per year. Note that the research projects that the heavily populated Mexican Pacific coast will see a decrease in tropical storms and hurricanes--about one less storm per year. The green stippling indicates statistical significance at the 99 percent confidence level. Image credit: Press release from the University of Hawaii, Hiroyuki Murakami, and Nature Climate Change (2013).

Why an Increase for Hawaii?
Even though their model predicted that fewer tropical cyclones would form in the Eastern Pacific in a future climate with global temperatures 2°C (3.6°F) warmer than at present, more of these storms made their way to Hawaii. This occurred because of three factors:

1) A shift in the upper air steering currents, caused by movement of the upper-level westerly subtropical jet poleward so that the mean steering flow near Hawaii became more east-to-west.

2) A tendency for storms near Hawaii to be stronger (stronger hurricanes tend to move more to the northwestward in the Northern Hemisphere, due to a phenomenon known as beta drift, caused by the variation in the Coriolis parameter across the width of the storm.)

3) A northwards shift in the genesis location where Eastern Pacific tropical storms formed, due to warming of the ocean waters.

"Our finding that more tropical cyclones will approach Hawaii as Earth continues to warm is fairly robust because we ran our experiments with different model versions and under varying conditions. The yearly number we project, however, still remains very low," reassured study co-author Wang in the press release. Only three tropical storms or hurricanes have made landfall in the islands since 1949, an average of one every 27 years, so an increase by a factor of 2 - 3 would imply a landfall every 9 - 14 years. With such a low incidence of storms, it will be very difficult to determine if they are indeed changing due to a changing climate without several decades of data, though.


Figure 2. Double trouble for Hawaii: True-color VIIRS image of Hurricane Iselle (left) and Tropical Storm Julio (right) approaching Hawaii, taken between 3 - 6 pm EDT August 5, 2014. At the time, Iselle was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds, and Julio had 65 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

I'll have a new post Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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353. BahaHurican
12:07 AM GMT on August 07, 2014
.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
352. LargoFl
7:42 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
I am wondering,IF this climate change is for real...IS it sort of changing florida's rainy season somewhat?...I cant believe my not getting good rain in many days now....that never happens in our rainy season....guess if this change is for real,we all will have to get used to new seasons..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42079
351. CaneFreeCR
5:32 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 274. allancalderini:

California is also in one of its worst droughts the opposite of what the map is showing.
Notice that the map is not portraying current conditions, it shows the general pattern of rainfall versus dryness worldwide during an El Niño. The fact that we are not currently in an El Niño is reflected in the fact that current rainfall and dryness patterns don't match the map.
Member Since: August 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
350. wunderkidcayman
5:14 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
I've just noticed that
We are at same amount of hurricanes as last year and we are just starting out in August last yeah it wasn't till September when we got out first

We beat last year in hurricane intensity infact Arthur is the strongest hurricane in 19months or somewhere there about

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
349. Sfloridacat5
5:11 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting Grothar:


KETCHUP!!! No wonder I was thrown out of school. :)


Ketchup, that might get a little messy. I've never tried that.

More commonly used items include baking soda and vinegar with a little red/orange food coloring.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9275
348. wunderweatherman123
5:07 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 342. wunderkidcayman:


Not only that set up is for it to end up in the W Carib
If this does happen and it hits those heat potentials in the area that could bomb out if this actually pans out
this season all the models show a ridge buidling in the northeast. unless the bermuda high somehow implodes and weakens, its going to be very hard to get anything to go out to sea. quite a different pattern compared to the last 5 years and give or take this is an average season, then maybe 2 CV hurricanes to track.. sounds interesting
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1727
347. Doss2k
5:06 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Living in Raleigh and disliking summer days over 90 degrees, I must say I welcome our new Global Warming/Climate Change overlords if it means summers will be cool like this going forward :).
Member Since: August 15, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
346. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:05 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
345. wunderkidcayman
5:05 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

If I'm not mistaken Genevieve started as TD 2 in the Atlantic then weakened to tropical wave that made its way into the E Pac and became the storm that it is today

Yeah I think I might be mistaken
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
344. washingtonian115
5:04 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 334. BahaHurican:

Hey, DC115.... I see u r well into the next season or two .... lol ... enjoy while you can, girl.... after some super hot winters we had, it's cool to get a little chill here and there...
Hello Baha.It's August but the pattern is saying late September.But I can't complain really/I'm enjoying it and getting out there.
Well I'll be back to lurk a little later to see what's going on.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17810
343. wunderweatherman123
5:04 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 252. weathermanwannabe:

SAL in the Central Atlantic is starting to wane/back off from the ITCZ as is normal this time of the year going into mid-late August as the subtropical ridge also moves into place across the Atlantic for the Cape Verde part of the season.  But it was so pervasive the past few months that SST's are marginal North of 10N in the Central Atlantic.  The point is that we might see some of the Cape Verde storms struggle in that region this year until they reach more favorable conditions further West closer to the Antilles.  We are only 35 days from the peak but the Central Atlantic has a bit of catching up to SST wise in the next 3 weeks in that part of the MDR:



SAL finally eroding and not rebuilding as strong
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1727
342. wunderkidcayman
5:03 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
long range GFS has a td in the eastern caribbean day 16

Not only that set up is for it to end up in the W Carib
If this does happen and it hits those heat potentials in the area that could bomb out if this actually pans out
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
341. hurricanes2018
5:02 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...NEAR 39.0N 65.4W AT 06/0900 UTC. THIS POSITION ALSO IS
ABOUT 345 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX IN NOVA
SCOTIA...AND ABOUT 710 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE IN
NEWFOUNDLAND. BERTHA IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...OR 55 DEGREES...
24 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 38N TO
41N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N27W 10N30W...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 49W/50W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 63W/64W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W
AND 68W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
23N68W...CUTTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS HAITI...AFTER THE EARLIER
PRECIPITATION ENDED.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N79W 15N81W
8N81W IN PANAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 10N24W AND 8N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N35W TO 9N44W AND 8N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
40W...AND FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N71W...THROUGH 32N73W...TO
28N77W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...TO THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N82W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 38N64W 35N68W 31N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W...AND OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 26N WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 82W.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 110 Comments: 105714
340. VAbeachhurricanes
5:00 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 332. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The life of Genevieve...

- At 09z on July 25, the NHC issued its first advisory on Tropical Storm Genevieve
- At 15z on July 26, Genevieve weakened to a tropical depression
- Early on July 27, Tropical Depression Genevieve entered the Central Pacific
- At 03z on July 27, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center declared Genevieve a remnant low
- At 21z on July 29, the CPHC re-initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Genevieve
- At 21z on July 31, the CPHC declared Genevieve a remnant low
- At 15z on August 2, the CPHC re-initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Genevieve
- At 21z on August 2, Tropical Depression Genevieve was upgraded to a tropical storm
- At 03z on August 3, Tropical Storm Genevieve was downgraded to a tropical depression
- At 21z on August 5, Tropical Depression Genevieve was upgraded to a tropical storm
- At 15z on August 6, Tropical Storm Genevieve was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane

An important fact to note--Genevieve is expected to cross 180W into the Northwest Pacific Ocean later today; when it does so, it will become the first cyclone to cross from the East Pacific to the West Pacific since Hurricane John in 1994


Dora in 99 and Jimena in 2003

Crossover Storms from Eastern Pacific to Western Pacific
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6704
339. wunderkidcayman
4:59 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The life of Genevieve...

- At 09z on July 25, the NHC issued its first advisory on Tropical Storm Genevieve
- At 15z on July 26, Genevieve weakened to a tropical depression
- Early on July 27, Tropical Depression Genevieve entered the Central Pacific
- At 03z on July 27, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center declared Genevieve a remnant low
- At 21z on July 29, the CPHC re-initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Genevieve
- At 21z on July 31, the CPHC declared Genevieve a remnant low
- At 15z on August 2, the CPHC re-initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Genevieve
- At 21z on August 2, Tropical Depression Genevieve was upgraded to a tropical storm
- At 03z on August 3, Tropical Storm Genevieve was downgraded to a tropical depression
- At 21z on August 5, Tropical Depression Genevieve was upgraded to a tropical storm
- At 15z on August 6, Tropical Storm Genevieve was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane

An important fact to note--Genevieve is expected to cross 180W into the Northwest Pacific Ocean later today; when it does so, it will become the first cyclone to cross from the East Pacific to the West Pacific since Hurricane John in 1994

If I'm not mistaken Genevieve started as TD 2 in the Atlantic then weakened to tropical wave that made its way into the E Pac and became the storm that it is today
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
338. Sfloridacat5
4:59 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
12z NAM at 84 hours moving a system through the Islands.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9275
337. ILwthrfan
4:58 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 292. VAbeachhurricanes:



Thats not what that means at all. 99% confidence level means that there is a 99% or greater chance that the data is statistically significant, not that there is a 99% chance that said prediction would occur. If that were true it wouldn't be a prediction.


Yes, you are correct. It's a p-test to confirm that data was statistically significant. My apologies.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1540
336. Siker
4:57 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
long range GFS has a td in the eastern caribbean day 16


Batten down the hatches!
Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 76
335. hydrus
4:55 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22615
334. BahaHurican
4:54 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 329. washingtonian115:

I see some red on some of my leaves.
Hey, DC115.... I see u r well into the next season or two .... lol ... enjoy while you can, girl.... after some super hot winters we had, it's cool to get a little chill here and there...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
333. Grothar
4:53 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 323. rmbjoe1954:



That's silly. A volcano is a middle school experiment where ketchup is pumped out of a cardboard model of a mountain.


KETCHUP!!! No wonder I was thrown out of school. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
332. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:52 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
The life of Genevieve...

- At 09z on July 25, the NHC issued its first advisory on Tropical Storm Genevieve
- At 15z on July 26, Genevieve weakened to a tropical depression
- Early on July 27, Tropical Depression Genevieve entered the Central Pacific
- At 03z on July 27, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center declared Genevieve a remnant low
- At 21z on July 29, the CPHC re-initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Genevieve
- At 21z on July 31, the CPHC declared Genevieve a remnant low
- At 15z on August 2, the CPHC re-initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Genevieve
- At 21z on August 2, Tropical Depression Genevieve was upgraded to a tropical storm
- At 03z on August 3, Tropical Storm Genevieve was downgraded to a tropical depression
- At 21z on August 5, Tropical Depression Genevieve was upgraded to a tropical storm
- At 15z on August 6, Tropical Storm Genevieve was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane

An important fact to note--Genevieve is expected to cross 180W into the Northwest Pacific Ocean later today; when it does so, it will become the first cyclone to cross from the East Pacific to the West Pacific since Hurricane John in 1994
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32815
331. wunderweatherman123
4:49 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
long range GFS has a td in the eastern caribbean day 16
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1727
330. hydrus
4:48 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 322. JRRP:


1980 ?
Yep..A friend of mine was in the Tortuga,s had both his arms broken while Allen was moving through the Yucatan Channel. It was gusting to 90 mph, and he attempted to pull anchor.. I should mention he was only 14 and fearless.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22615
329. washingtonian115
4:48 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 315. georgevandenberghe:



Yellows at this time of year are probably a short term dryness response. I'm starting to see them here in College Park also. No reds here though.

I see some red on some of my leaves.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17810
328. BahaHurican
4:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 273. StormTrackerScott:



Waiting on the latest updates but it appears the MDR will go down as the driest in history for July. TA13 brought this up a couple of days ago.
Amazing we got anything at all out of that environment. To me this implies the strength of the Twaves and by extension the potential for them to survive into the WCar and WAtl if conditions in the MDR improve.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
327. joshweather1222
4:42 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 297. VAbeachhurricanes:

Can't see Iselle surviving until Hawaii, should be a non-issue for them





Yep it should be a non issue for them dry air is choking iselle and would keep choking
Member Since: July 27, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
326. Climate175
4:40 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
I remember Hydrus also posting those winter maps and saying this does not look good and big storms are coming, last winter was quite an experience and a joyful one on the blog, hope it can be again this winter.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4750
325. washingtonian115
4:38 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 312. VAbeachhurricanes:



I don't know about up there, but this is the coolest summer here in a while. It rarely got into the nineties except for a couple of weeks here and there. More upper 70's with rain than any July /August I remember.
This has been a pretty average summer and the lack of 90's is a bonus!.We have not had any recorded days in the 100's.I have had temps at 98 and 99.But it hasn't touched 100 at my house yet this summer.The troughs have been impressive for so early and we've expected to see the low 80's to upper 70's once again this up coming week.

Climate175 it's all about waiting now.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17810
324. 1344
4:38 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 297. VAbeachhurricanes:

Can't see Iselle surviving until Hawaii, should be a non-issue for them






Perhaps, but models are in good agreement that it should come close.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 235
323. rmbjoe1954
4:37 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 299. Grothar:
Sometimes I wish scientists would keep their opinions to themselves.

It reminds me of Lavas Flovus in 79 A.D. He said, "Beware the volcano" as the residents said, "What's a volcano?"



That's silly. A volcano is a middle school experiment where ketchup is pumped out of a cardboard model of a mountain.
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1439
322. JRRP
4:36 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting hydrus:
That is a big one..Reminds me of the t wave that started Hurricane Allen.

1980 ?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
321. Climate175
4:36 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 315. georgevandenberghe:



Yellows at this time of year are probably a short term dryness response. I'm starting to see them here in College Park also. No reds here though.

Doug Hill said his mom used to use nature and it's signs to predict the DMV's most big snowstorms.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4750
320. Jedkins01
4:35 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
000
FXUS62 KTBW 061423
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1023 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
SCATTERED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MOVED ONSHORE AROUND THE MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PINELLAS AND
SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES ALONG WITH CENTRAL MANATEE AND
CENTRAL SARASOTA COUNTIES. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND TAMPA BAY LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS NUMEROUS
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE POPS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR AND INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THE TAMPA AREA SOUTH.

12Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATES WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH
CAPE AROUND 4000 AND 50T OF -5.7. WEAK ONSHORE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OF LESS THAN 5 KNOTS ALONG WITH WARM MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS.


This is very strange, thunderstorm coverage again in Central Florida is much lower than one would expect so far today with the parameters as they are. So far today coverage low and weak despite a PW of 2.0 inches, CAPE near 4000 and cool enough mid level temps. Yesterday was the same as well across Central Florida.

In fact I've seen a lot less impressive stats of the atmosphere lead to higher coverage. I don't really get it.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8016
319. 1344
4:35 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 317. Grothar:



That had to be something to track




Dora 99 made it to the WPAC and it formed within the EPAC.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 235
318. hydrus
4:34 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Latest GFS..

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22615
317. Grothar
4:33 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 310. Stoopid1:

The last time two hurricanes existed simultaneously in the Central Pacific was 1993, with hurricanes Keoni and Fernanda.

1993 Pacific hurricane season

Genevieve is also set to be the first Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone to enter the Western Pacific since Hurricane John, which crossed the dateline on August 28, 1994. This is a pretty awesome day to track the Central Pacific, you don't see this too often!


That had to be something to track

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
316. catastropheadjuster
4:33 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 305. Grothar:



Iselle


Julio




Grothar, thank you, it don't look like it's going to be bad, thank God. From what I'm reading that folks are saying they usually have a shield up and it shouldn't cause much damage.

sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3683
315. georgevandenberghe
4:32 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting Climate175:
Squirrels are going nuts literally, and as I take summer walks I see more trees getting shades of yellow and reds and falling off. This winter we are going to be having some fun.


Yellows at this time of year are probably a short term dryness response. I'm starting to see them here in College Park also. No reds here though.
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 2187
314. Climate175
4:30 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 311. washingtonian115:

Yes more trees are turning and leaves are falling off .In recent years it's been very rare for D.C to get two back to back snowy winters.Usually you'll have that one blockbuster year and then the following winters suck.2013-14 was a block buster winter that didn't give up until April.However the pattern hasn't really budged from last summer so we'll see.But the signs do point to a cooler pattern.
Some people have already issued Preliminary Winter Outlook for the Mid-Atlantic. Mid-Atlantic Outlook:The Mid-Atlantic could even see a snowier winter than last winter and likely experience well-below average temperatures. This winter could rival some of the snowpocalyptic winters that occurred a few years back, which will likely end up making this a highly discussed topic throughout the winter. This will likely be a wetter-than-average winter for the Mid-Atlantic, and this region will likely feel the effects of low pressure systems bombing off the East Coast. This area will probably be impacted by several storms this season and may even feel the effects of a pre-season storm that may try to develop. We will see how this goes.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4750
313. nonblanche
4:28 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 158. KoritheMan:


Global warming isn't an "agenda", but I do agree with your main point. Ironically I feel that's one of the larger reasons the average person doesn't take AGW seriously.



Guess I'm not average. I do take it seriously, but also laugh because Metaphor!

Blackjack table. Dealer deals, cards dealt follow a pattern, and the pattern can be predicted based on whether there's a house staffer under the table slipping extra cards into the deck as the games are played. All the players at the table are arguing whether the person under the table actually exists, with everyone having perfectly (to them) valid arguments on why or why not the guy is there.

Nobody is going to believe each other one way or another until the guy under the table has to get up to relieve himself. And even then the "No Guy Under The Table!" crowd will certainly find a reason unrelated to pranking the deck as to why the guy might have been there.

It's going to take more than the brown sticky stuff hitting the fan to convince that crowd. It's going to take a Bullnado of Epic Proportions landing on the fan manufacturing plant to convince them.

Me? I'll be here on the farm watching the show. Fortunately popcorn is a pretty hardy variety of zea maiz. :)
Member Since: October 21, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 272
312. VAbeachhurricanes
4:26 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 311. washingtonian115:

Yes more trees are turning and leaves are falling off .In recent years it's been very rare for D.C to get two back to back snowy winters.Usually you'll have that one blockbuster year and then the following winters suck.2013-14 was a block buster winter that didn't give up until April.However the pattern hasn't really budged from last summer so we'll see.But the signs do point to a cooler pattern.


I don't know about up there, but this is the coolest summer here in a while. It rarely got into the nineties except for a couple of weeks here and there. More upper 70's with rain than any July /August I remember.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6704
311. washingtonian115
4:21 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 302. Climate175:

Squirrels are going nuts literally, and as I take summer walks I see more trees getting shades of yellow and reds and falling off. This winter we are going to be having some fun.
Yes more trees are turning and leaves are falling off .In recent years it's been very rare for D.C to get two back to back snowy winters.Usually you'll have that one blockbuster year and then the following winters suck.2013-14 was a block buster winter that didn't give up until April.However the pattern hasn't really budged from last summer so we'll see.But the signs do point to a cooler pattern.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17810
310. Stoopid1
4:18 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
The last time two hurricanes existed simultaneously in the Central Pacific was 1993, with hurricanes Keoni and Fernanda.

1993 Pacific hurricane season

Genevieve is also set to be the first Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone to enter the Western Pacific since Hurricane John, which crossed the dateline on August 28, 1994. This is a pretty awesome day to track the Central Pacific, you don't see this too often!
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2755
309. Grothar
4:18 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
308. VAbeachhurricanes
4:17 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Sunrise on a dry Iselle, choking to death

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6704
307. hydrus
4:17 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 301. JRRP:



That is a big one..Reminds me of the t wave that started Hurricane Allen.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22615
306. Climate175
4:15 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4750
305. Grothar
4:14 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 294. catastropheadjuster:

Is Iselle and Julio still going to hit or get close to Hawaii?


Iselle


Julio

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
304. hydrus
4:14 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Quoting 299. Grothar:

Sometimes I wish scientists would keep their opinions to themselves.

It reminds me of Lavas Flovus in 79 A.D. He said, "Beware the volcano" as the residents said, "What's a volcano?"


God succeeded explaining the definition of volcano in vivid detail.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22615
303. wxmod
4:14 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
Arctic sea ice. Pacific to Atlantic shipping route is opening.

"The world is entering the most significant period of invasive species contamination in two million years as Arctic ice melts away and new shipping routes threaten to open the floodgates between foreign eco systems, causing irreversible damage."http://rt.com/news/162264-melting-arctic-ice-spec ies/

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1771

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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