Hurricane Iselle Headed Towards Hawaii; Bertha Becomes a Hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on August 04, 2014

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Hurricane Iselle continued to intensify overnight, reaching Category 4 strength with 140 mph winds at 11 am EDT on Monday. Iselle is likely at peak intensity, since ocean temperatures beneath the storm are now 26°C, which is marginal for maintaining a hurricane. Interestingly, plots of Maximum Potential Intensity from the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies show that the Iselle should only be able to maintain Category 2 strength with these ocean temperatures and the current atmospheric background conditions, so the storm is definitely over-achieving. Iselle is headed westwards at 10 mph towards Hawaii, and could affect the Hawaiian Islands as a tropical storm by Thursday night. Satellite images show an impressive storm with a large eye, good symmetry, and plenty of upper-level outflow. The relative lack of spiral bands and large, thick eyewall qualify Iselle to be a rare breed of hurricanes known as "annular". Annular hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that are significantly stronger, maintain their peak intensities longer, and weaken more slowly than average tropical cyclones. The latest SHIPS model output indicates that Iselle has passed the initial screening step to be considered an annular hurricane, and the model's "Annular Hurricane Index" shows a high level of annularity for the hurricane. Only 4% of all hurricanes are annular hurricanes. The most recent annular hurricane in the Eastern Pacific that I am aware of was Category 4 Hurricane Kenneth of November 2011.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Iselle from approximately 6 pm EDT August 3, 2014. At the time, Iselle was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Iselle was showing an annual structure--a lack of spiral bands and large, thick eyewall. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Category 4 Hurricane Kenneth of November 22, 2011--the most recent annular hurricane to appear in the Eastern Pacific.

Forecast for Iselle
Wind shear is expected to stay light to moderate for the next four days, and ocean temperatures will remain near 26°C. However, the atmosphere surrounding Iselle will begin to dry considerably beginning on Tuesday, which should induce a steady weakening trend Tuesday through Thursday. By the time Iselle reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Thursday night, rapid weakening may be occurring, but Iselle could still be a strong tropical storm, capable of generating dangerous heavy rains. Hurricanes approaching from the east typically fall apart before they reach Hawaii, though, due to the cool waters and dry air that lie to the east of the islands. It is hurricanes approaching from the south that represent the biggest danger to the islands, due to the warmer waters and more unstable air present to the south. The only two major hurricanes to have affected the islands since 1949, Hurricane Iniki of 1992 and Hurricane Dot of 1959, both came from the south.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters' jet is scheduled to fly a dropsonde mission on Tuesday evening out of Honolulu, and an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly a low-level mission into the hurricane early Wednesday morning.

After Iselle comes Julio
After Iselle finishes its close encounter with the Hawaiian Islands late this week, the islands need be concerned with yet another tropical cyclone: Tropical Storm Julio, which formed in the Eastern Pacific south of Baja Mexico this morning. Satellite loops show that Julio is headed westwards towards Hawaii on a path very similar to Iselle's, and the storm should be able to take advantage of moderate wind shear and warm ocean temperatures to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Long range forecasts from the GFS and European models have been consistently predicting that Julio will pass very close to Hawaii on Sunday night and be stronger than Iselle. It's been a very active hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific, which has seen 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes so far in 2014. On average, we expect to see 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by August 4 in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Bertha.

Bertha a hurricane
In the Atlantic, Hurricane Bertha took advantage of decreasing wind shear and a moister atmosphere to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds as of 11 am EDT Monday. Visible satellite loops on Monday morning showed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds over Berth's core, which is a typical feature of intensifying tropical storms about to reach hurricane strength. However, Bertha's satellite presentation was probably the lamest I've even seen for a hurricane, with only a small, misshapen area of heavy thunderstorms, and little in the way of spiral bands. Bertha is headed northwards, and will pass midway between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda. After a short stint as a hurricane later today and on Tuesday, high wind shear and very cool waters of 20°C will convert Bertha into a powerful extratropical storm on Wednesday, halting the intensification process. Bertha will not be a threat to any more land areas, though its remnants could bring some heavy rain showers and tropical storm-force winds gusts to Southeast Newfoundland on Thursday. Along with Hurricane Arthur, Hurricane Bertha gives us two Atlantic hurricanes so far this year, matching the total number of hurricanes during the entire 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. The second (and final) hurricane of the 2013 season (Ingrid) did not arrive until September 14. On average, the second hurricane of the Atlantic season arrives on August 28. The last time the first two named storms in the Atlantic became hurricanes was in 1983, when Alicia, Barry and Chantal all became hurricanes (kudos to TWC's Stu Ostro for this stat.)

Weakening Typhoon Halong headed towards Japan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Halong, formerly a mighty Category 5 super typhoon with 160 mph winds, has weakened significantly to a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds on Monday morning. Satellite loops show that Halong's eye is no longer distinct the eyewall has collapsed, but the typhoon still has a large area of very intense eyewall thunderstorms. Halong is expected to affect Southern Japan as a Category 1 typhoon late this week.


Figure 4. The NOAA P-3 Orion hurricane hunter aircraft, N42RF and N43RF. Image credit: Alan Goldstein/Terry Schricker.

A dangerous flight through Hurricane Hugo, remembered 25 years later on The Weather Channel
Twenty five years ago, on September 15, 1989, the fifteen members of the crew of NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft N42RF very nearly became Hurricane Hugo's first victims. Expecting to encounter a powerful yet manageable Category 3 hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, the plane instead hit extreme turbulence in an intensifying Category 5 storm, and very nearly did not make it out. I was the Flight Meteorologist on that mission, and photographed the wild events of that unforgettable flight. My remarkable story of that flight into Hurricane Hugo is a must-read for all who follow these great storms. On Monday, August 4, 2014, The Weather Channel will be showing a 3-minute piece on that flight, which will be airing at 3:40 pm, 4:40 pm, and times later in the day. I flew to Tampa in June to help film the piece, which interviews myself and two members of that mission who still work for the NOAA Hurricane Hunters--Hurricane Project Manager Jim McFadden, and the Science and Engineering Division chief Alan Goldstein. The piece will also play again on the actual 25th anniversary of the flight, on September 15, 2014.

Jeff Masters

Heavy Rain from TS Bertha (tainochief)
Looking out our front window you can see how the rains were coming down this afternoon from TS Bertha
Heavy Rain from TS Bertha
Bertha (verod)
Bertha

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811. Alohakeia
3:39 PM GMT on August 06, 2014
There have been three hurricanes in the past century. Iwa in 1983 as well as the other two.
Member Since: August 4, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
810. ekogaia
5:17 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 764. Grothar:



Great Sat Pics Grothar - the Barbados blob is pretty impressive - gonna be wet in the Windwards for a day or so.
Member Since: November 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
809. ZacWeatherKidUK
4:39 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
.
Member Since: December 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 210
808. ricderr
3:52 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
What you don't see it

thinking more than one don't see it.....LOL
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22223
807. wunderkidcayman
3:50 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting sar2401:
And the surface trof is located exactly where on your map?


What you don't see it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
806. islander101010
3:47 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
you can worry as much as you want about weather. it wont make any difference. so why worry? nevertheless "really little worried" about the approaching cv season
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4986
805. FranklinGray
3:46 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 800. wunderkidcayman:


Oh I'd say under the present conditions 2 day percentage 20% low 5 day percentage 40% medium
That may change as the day progress and the days to come




Thank you. It seems I may been delayed too late to get north this season. I have a very narrow weather window to leave Wednesday morning or can't go at all for at least a week according to the GFS model but this wave could change things drastically in 3 days, but if I go, in three days I will not know about it until it's too late.

For all you bloggers out there, I'd appreciate any additional information about this wave as you get it. It is causing me great concern about my decision on go or no go that I have to make this afternoon.
Member Since: July 30, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
804. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:45 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
803. ricderr
3:45 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
This is a waste of time since the Doc will post a new blog within five minutes, but we would have known there was a storm out there. Ship reports would have told us that. Until it got east of the Bahamas, we probably would have pegged it as a TS at least. I don't think it ever would have reached hurricane status just because the amount of ship traffic east of the Bahamas is very light. I'm impressed with how well the NHC and the model ensembles did with the part and intensity of the storm. It was never expected to just go poof. However, it was only fighter because we could track it with satellite and HH reports. In 1950, this would have been a TW/TS and that's it. Bertha actually behaved pretty much as forecast for its whole life up until now, regardless of the wishcasting going on here.

exactly sar...and since bertha was traveling at about the pace of a ship....and that her wind signature was as small as it was....there could have been a chance she was missed...or at the very least...misrepresented.....
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22223
802. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:44 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
CSU reported the other day that July 2014 was likely to be among the driest Julys on record for the MDR, but they were having issues accessing the dataset. Well, that issue is fixed and it's official--it was the driest July on record in the MDR.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32685
801. TimSoCal
3:38 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 795. 1344:
Iselle is really starting to worry me. It really has 24-36 hours left to weaken, and at this rate, this could easily be a hurricane at landfall. Buildings in Hawaii aren't the best, and Hilo is very prone to storm surge.


All those high slopes on the big island would probably kill her, but not before she dumps an absolutely ridiculous amount of rain on them.

There's still time for the convection to go "poof" though.
Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 799
800. wunderkidcayman
3:37 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting FranklinGray:


What chances do you give this system in producing winds above 30 knots in the next 5 days and do you think it will go anywhere near Cuba?

Oh I'd say under the present conditions 2 day percentage 20% low 5 day percentage 40% medium
That may change as the day progress and the days to come

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
799. Grothar
3:36 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 793. rmbjoe1954:



Let's wait for Grothar to use his blobometer to determine potential impact.


Conditions are hostile in the Caribbean. Strong trade winds and weak steering currents. Entering the "Dead Zone". The John Hope Rule.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27063
798. Envoirment
3:36 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 794. sar2401:

And the surface trof is located exactly where on your map?


It's the line with a break in it near Barbados, just before the islands.
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1019
797. HurricaneHunterJoe
3:35 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Good Morning Class!

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Tue, 05 Aug 8:32 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Tue, 05 Aug 8:20 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
05 Aug 8:20 am PDT 66 40 38 ESE 3G05 OK
05 Aug 8:10 am PDT 64 39 39 E 2G04 OK
05 Aug 8:00 am PDT 64 39 39 E 2G04 OK
05 Aug 7:50 am PDT 64 38 38 ESE 2G04 OK
05 Aug 7:40 am PDT 62 39 42 ENE 2G03 OK
05 Aug 7:30 am PDT 61 42 49 ENE 2G04 OK
05 Aug 7:20 am PDT 61 42 50 ENE 1G03 OK
05 Aug 7:10 am PDT 60 40 47 SSE 1G02 OK
05 Aug 7:00 am PDT 61 40 46 S 1G02 OK
05 Aug 6:50 am PDT 58 41 54 G02 OK
05 Aug 6:40 am PDT 56 40 55 NNE 1G02 OK
05 Aug 6:30 am PDT 55 38 53 SW 1G03 OK
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5243
796. wunderkidcayman
3:33 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting Grothar:


You are correct, the wave is ahead of the cluster.

If you look on the satellite the convection that's in front of our blob is part of the tropical wave and is helping moisten the environment in front of our blob
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
795. 1344
3:31 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Iselle is really starting to worry me. It really has 24-36 hours left to weaken, and at this rate, this could easily be a hurricane at landfall. Buildings in Hawaii aren't the best, and Hilo is very prone to storm surge.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 235
794. sar2401
3:31 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Here I'll give you a better view
And the surface trof is located exactly where on your map?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16915
793. rmbjoe1954
3:28 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 776. Relix:
Isn't the Barbados wave supposed to move north south of PR and into Hispaniola? Or was I wrong?


Let's wait for Grothar to use his blobometer to determine potential impact.
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1434
792. FranklinGray
3:28 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 768. wunderkidcayman:


So can we officially call it Groblob


What chances do you give this system in producing winds above 30 knots in the next 5 days and do you think it will go anywhere near Cuba?
Member Since: July 30, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
791. Grothar
3:28 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 781. Envoirment:



I don't think the Barbados entity is acossiated with the tropical wave:






You are correct, the wave is ahead of the cluster.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27063
790. Grothar
3:27 PM GMT on August 05, 2014


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27063
789. HurrikanEB
3:26 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Was doing some research on Hawaii hurricane history.

With the current track of Iselle trekking across the islands as a tropical storm, she would be the strongest storm to affect the islands since Iniki in 1992. Also, her projected path over/through the eastern islands as a tropical storm is virtually unprecedented in the NOAA interactive database. Combine that with a potential Julio this weekend, and Hawaii's got a pretty active season. Link



Member Since: May 2, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1343
788. sar2401
3:26 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting ricderr:
Finest, not sure. That's a beautiful sunny day at the pool. But one of the more interesting for sure. Good to see ya ric.

hey sj....happy tuesday to ya......yep...finest....if it wasn't for satellite data and hunters....would we have even known bertha was out there?......call the story of bertha...rocky 1....you have a champ...who is the classic boxer....great jab.....nice footwork...excellent movement.....same as your traditional tropical system...then you have rocky...odds against him....totally different style than most....but somehow can defy the odds....bertha is our rocky....
This is a waste of time since the Doc will post a new blog within five minutes, but we would have known there was a storm out there. Ship reports would have told us that. Until it got east of the Bahamas, we probably would have pegged it as a TS at least. I don't think it ever would have reached hurricane status just because the amount of ship traffic east of the Bahamas is very light. I'm impressed with how well the NHC and the model ensembles did with the part and intensity of the storm. It was never expected to just go poof. However, it was only fighter because we could track it with satellite and HH reports. In 1950, this would have been a TW/TS and that's it. Bertha actually behaved pretty much as forecast for its whole life up until now, regardless of the wishcasting going on here.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16915
787. JrWeathermanFL
3:25 PM GMT on August 05, 2014


If both were tropical systems, that would have to be the closest interaction I've ever seen..
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2532
786. Grothar
3:24 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
I'm getting worried about the Doc. He usually checks in by this time.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27063
785. wunderkidcayman
3:22 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Looks like Bertha is gonna be a London storm



Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
784. wunderkidcayman
3:18 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting Envoirment:


I don't think the Barbados entity is acossiated with the tropical wave:




It had split from the wave
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
783. wunderkidcayman
3:17 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting sar2401:
I see a tropical wave on the 12z surface chart.


Here I'll give you a better view
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
782. wunderkidcayman
3:16 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting Relix:
Isn't the Barbados wave supposed to move north south of PR and into Hispaniola? Or was I wrong?

S of all
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
781. Envoirment
3:16 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 776. Relix:

Isn't the Barbados wave supposed to move north south of PR and into Hispaniola? Or was I wrong?


I don't think the Barbados entity is acossiated with the tropical wave:



Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1019
780. wunderkidcayman
3:15 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting Grothar:


LOL. Not yet WKC. Blobogenesis takes many hours of observation and careful analysis. I have to locate the MJO and MDR and then when I find my glasses I can give a report.

LOL
It can be that hard
I'll await for your report
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
779. sar2401
3:14 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting Grothar:


LOL. Not yet WKC. Blobogenesis takes many hours of observation and careful analysis. I have to locate the MJO and MDR and then when I find my glasses I can give a report.
Plus the Mylanta and those big horse size fiber pills... :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16915
778. ricderr
3:13 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
I think Julio might be a bigger problem, not stronger, just more rain

exactly.......once those mountains are saturated....runoff will be fast and furious with the second system
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22223
777. sar2401
3:12 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hmm
New information provides more details into our Barbados AOI
Vort has increased in this disturbance
Shear has dropped as a large upper level anticyclone builds in the Caribbean
Divergence and convergence has also increased
SAL is out of the question
Dry air is not as bad in front as there are a few scattered storms in front from a tropical wave moistening the area
New 12Z sfc charts added a surface trof to the disturbance
I see a tropical wave on the 12z surface chart.

Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16915
776. Relix
3:11 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Isn't the Barbados wave supposed to move north south of PR and into Hispaniola? Or was I wrong?
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
775. Grothar
3:10 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 768. wunderkidcayman:


So can we officially call it Groblob


LOL. Not yet WKC. Blobogenesis takes many hours of observation and careful analysis. I have to locate the MJO and MDR and then when I find my glasses I can give a report.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27063
774. Envoirment
3:10 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 763. Grothar:



I think Julio might be a bigger problem, not stronger, just more rain


Hopefully the rain won't cause too much flooding. About 30% of Hawaii is abnormally dry and about 0.6% is in moderate drought, so fingers crossed the rain can be more beneficial than destructive. Link
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1019
773. hydrus
3:10 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 769. OrchidGrower:

Re: #761: I'm not only impressed with the outflow of the Windward Isles wave, but very impressed with the blobbage that has managed to form and spout a couple taller cloud tops in the Central Caribbean! We need to watch that and see if the little punk hangs on to that moisture; the Western Caribbean's got some significant TCHP.
It has gusto....is that a real word.? :)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22239
772. wunderkidcayman
3:09 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting nwobilderburg:


You know, the Wind Shear in the Carribean is not awful

Yeah not at all with that large upper level anticyclone building up

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
771. hydrus
3:08 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 763. Grothar:



I think Julio might be a bigger problem, not stronger, just more rain
Possible. There is a large mass of dry air advecting into the paths of both systems..The war between dry and moist continues.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22239
770. nwobilderburg
3:06 PM GMT on August 05, 2014


You know, the Wind Shear in the Carribean is not awful
Member Since: October 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 830
769. OrchidGrower
3:05 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Re: #761: I'm not only impressed with the outflow of the Windward Isles wave, but very impressed with the blobbage that has managed to form and spout a couple taller cloud tops in the Central Caribbean! We need to watch that and see if the little punk hangs on to that moisture; the Western Caribbean's got some significant TCHP.
Member Since: September 24, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 396
768. wunderkidcayman
3:05 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting Grothar:

So can we officially call it Groblob
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
767. Envoirment
3:05 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 761. Grothar:

The Doc should be on any minute now, so I thought I would post this now





Low shear and warm waters. There's dry air, but there doesn't seem to be much, if any dust around it. Plus it looks like it's created its own little moisture blanket. The lower vorticy has increased quite a bit the last 3 hours:





The trade winds of the Caribbean might disrupt it. But if it can hold it togther and get into the Western Caribbean, we could be in for a surprise.
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1019
766. wunderkidcayman
3:04 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Hmm
New information provides more details into our Barbados AOI
Vort has increased in this disturbance
Shear has dropped as a large upper level anticyclone builds in the Caribbean
Divergence and convergence has also increased
SAL is out of the question
Dry air is not as bad in front as there are a few scattered storms in front from a tropical wave moistening the area
New 12Z sfc charts added a surface trof to the disturbance
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
765. Grothar
3:01 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27063
764. Grothar
3:00 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27063
763. Grothar
2:57 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 759. hydrus:

Maybe not. The upwelling from Iselle will have an effect on Julio. Thats not saying Hawaii will not have a storm to contend with. Iselle will likely bring T.S. forced winds to the area..jmo


I think Julio might be a bigger problem, not stronger, just more rain
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27063
762. Envoirment
2:57 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
Quoting 755. ricderr:

now looking at my notes........june/july produced the average for named storms during an el nino forming year....the average is 0.8 named storms...and we saw one.......

during august...the average named storms is 2.4 of which we have already seen one.....now in el nino years we've seen as few as none...and as many as 7 during 2004...personally......i'm of the mind we will see no more than two more......


I think we'll have 3-5 storms in August. We already have Bertha and activity should start picking up as we enter mid-late August. Then there's the potential for Cristobal next week and also the models showing strong waves coming off of Africa by the end of next week with potential for development. Not to mention potential pop up storms. Quite exciting stuff now we're getting starting to get into the heart of the hurricane season!
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1019
761. Grothar
2:57 PM GMT on August 05, 2014
The Doc should be on any minute now, so I thought I would post this now


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.