Hurricane Arthur Pounds North Carolina, Heads for Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:20 PM GMT on July 04, 2014

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Hurricane Arthur has weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds on Friday morning, after delivering a direct hit to the barrier islands of eastern North Carolina on Thursday night. Officially, Arthur made landfall at Shackleford Banks between Cape Lookout and Beaufort, North Carolina at 11:15 pm EDT July 3, 2014 as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. It was the first Category 2 hurricane to make U.S. landfall since Hurricane Ike of 2008 (which had 110 mph winds at landfall.) Arthur is only the fourth July hurricane to hit North Carolina since accurate records began in 1851, and the earliest in the year to hit the state. Other July hurricanes to hit the state occurred in 1901, 1908, and 1996. Fortunately, no deaths or injuries were reported due to Arthur, and damage was minimal, said North Carolina governor Pat McCory at a 9:30 am EDT July 4 press conference, though 44,000 customers lost power. The vast majority of the 60,000 permanent residents who live on the Outer Banks did not evacuate. Highway 12 connecting the Outer Banks to the mainland was flooded and covered with sand, but is scheduled to re-open on Saturday. The Bonner Bridge crossing Oregon Inlet on Highway 12 needs to be inspected before it can re-open, since there is concern that the 4.5' storm surge that roared though the inlet early Friday morning may have scoured sand away from the support pilings. Luckily, the highest surge occurred at low tide.


Figure 1. NASA astronaut Reid Wiseman tweeted this photo of the storm from the International Space Station taken through a 10.5mm fish eye lens at 9:30 am EDT July 4, 2014. At the time, Arthur was a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds.


Figure 2. Radar out of Wilmington, North Carolina at 11:22 pm EDT July 3, 2014, as Arthur made landfall at Cape Lookout, NC.


Figure 3. Total radar-estimated rainfall for North Carolina from Arthur from the Wilmington, North Carolina radar.

Wind, wave, storm surge, and tornado reports

Here are the top winds measured in North Carolina from Arthur:

Cape Lookout CMAN, 71 mph gusting to 84 mph at 10 pm (though NHC reported that this station had sustained winds of 77 mph, gusting to 101 mph between the regular hourly reporting times)
Beaufort, 54 mph gusting to 69 mph at 10:24 pm
Cape Hatteras USCG, 64 mph gusting to 78 mph at 1:36 am
Oregon Inlet Marina, 54 mph gusting to 69 mph at 5:24 am

A significant wave height of 21.3' was observed at Oregon Inlet at 4:47 am EDT.

Here are the top storm surge levels measured at NOAA tide gauges from Arthur:

4.5' at Oregon Inlet, NC
2.5' at Hatteras, NC USCG Station
2.4' at Beaufort, NC
2.1' at Duck, NC
2.1' at Sewells Point, VA
2.1' at Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded one tornado in North Carolina on Thursday from Arthur; the tornado did only minor damage.


Figure 4. Aerial view of Highway 12 to the North Carolina Outer Banks on the morning of July 4, 2014 after the storm surge of Hurricane Arthur had scoured the coast. Image credit: U.S. Coast Guard.

Forecast for Arthur
Satellite loops on Friday afternoon showed that Arthur's eye had filled with clouds, and the storm had expanded in size. Top winds of the hurricane at 11 am EDT were still a formidable 90 mph, with the central pressure a respectable 976 mb. With wind shear a high 25 knots and sea surface temperatures a chilly 24°C, Arthur will steadily weaken, but is still expected to have 70 - 75 mph winds when it makes landfall in Western Nova Scotia between 5 am - 8 am EDT Saturday, July 5. By late morning Saturday, Arthur will complete the transition to a powerful extratropical storm with tropical storm-force winds. The 11 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast from NHC gave Yarmouth, Nova Scotia a 12% chance of hurricane-force winds, and a 93% chance of tropical storm-force winds. Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts were given 88% and 54% chances of tropical storm-force winds, respectively.

Arthur's formation is not a harbinger of an active hurricane season
The first hurricane of the season typically occurs on August 10, so Arthur is quite a bit ahead of schedule. Arthur was able to form so early because it was over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream Current, and these waters happened to be over 1°F warmer than usual for this time of year. Formation of a June or July hurricane like Arthur off the U.S. coast is typically not a harbinger of an active hurricane season, since these storms do not form from African tropical waves. Arthur spun up from a cluster of thunderstorms and their associated low pressure system that moved off the Southeast U.S. coast, and hurricanes that get their start this way are typically too far north and too close to land to be able to intensify into major hurricanes. The bigger threat are hurricanes that get their start from tropical waves traversing Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes (from the coast of Africa to Central America between 10° - 20°N, including the Caribbean Sea.) Tropical waves that traverse the MDR are responsible for 85% of all major (Category 3 and stronger) hurricanes. When June and July hurricanes and tropical storms form in the MDR, it usually does portend an active hurricane season, since it shows that atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed to assist development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa during the peak mid-August through mid-October part of hurricane season.

A better way to evaluate whether or not this will be an active hurricane season is to look at sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the MDR, and the status of El Niño. MDR SSTs are currently very close to average, and are thus unlikely to contribute to an above-average hurricane season. The very warm equatorial waters currently off the coast of South America suggest that an El Niño event is in the process of developing. When an El Niño event occurs during hurricane season, it tends to create an atmospheric circulation that brings unusually strong upper-level winds to the tropical Atlantic. These strong winds create a shearing action (wind shear) on any tropical storms or hurricanes that may be attempting to form, disrupting their circulation. Thus, the pre-season predictions of a below-average or near-average hurricane season still look good.


Video 1. ‪Hurricane Arthur at The Frying Pan Tower Adventure B&B‬ (thanks to Skyepony for posting this link in my blog comments.)

Jeff Masters

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402. ZacWeatherKidUK
10:44 PM GMT on July 06, 2014
.
Member Since: December 27, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 148
401. flsky
9:56 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Where is here??
Quoting 400. Dragod66:

136,000 without power here. Mine flickered for a second and came back on. Sustained winds are down but the gusts are still really high. Havnt seen any damage around me but I here there are reports of trees down.
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1937
400. Dragod66
8:42 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
136,000 without power here. Mine flickered for a second and came back on. Sustained winds are down but the gusts are still really high. Havnt seen any damage around me but I here there are reports of trees down.
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 612
399. Grothar
6:31 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Wow, 19,000 without power in Maine

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25994
398. Grothar
6:27 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
It looks like a lot of New England got battered by Arthur

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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25994
397. CaneFreeCR
4:18 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
The "Coon Dog" looks to be having some of Arthur's troubles -- a fair amount of dry air working its way into the core. That could be good for Japan as it was for the Outer Banks.
Member Since: August 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
396. HurricaneHunterJoe
3:51 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
JTWC Calling for Typhoon Neoguri to be between 90-130 kts as it approaches Southern Japan. Also has it tracking near Kadena Air Base.



Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
395. Stormwatch247
3:43 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
What makes studying hurricanes even more interesting is ...... this BLOG. I think it is awesome, even if it is a slow day in the tropics!

Member Since: September 25, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
394. Climate175
3:29 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Still a long way our and it is the CMC so yea..
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3775
393. sar2401
3:27 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Any tropical storm force winds reported in Nova Scotia?

Yarmouth NS is reporting 55 mph sustained with 60 mph gusts so that's in-lie with TS winds and pretty much what I expected. The rain appears to be generally moderate, with about 2" so far. None of the Canadian media I can find is reporting any major damage. It's fairly chilly with a temperature of 53. That area is used to dealing with some pretty powerful nor'easters, and the remnants of Arthur are pretty similar.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 14337
392. FIUStormChaser
3:24 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting 380. BahaHurican:

So... 1 FL blogger out of how many? lol.... I know there is a hardcore group of us in here who would track TCs on Jupiter, if it were possible... lol... but the bulk of the bloggers are satisfied to see the storm to their location. They they have other things to do, most frequently including restoring order after a strike or brush, or, if they are lucky, celebrating that it wasn't as bad as it could have been.....

Just pple being pple...


You bring up a valid point, but i believe what you say goes for bloggers everywhere. For example, when a storm threatens Texas, the most people on the blog minus the seasoned WU people are texas bloggers, the same goes for a Florida storm, Northeast storm, and even a Caribbean, Mexican, Central American storm. It's up to individuals like us, who are truly fascinated with weather and worried about the people in the path to make a difference. I know alot of Florida bloggers get a bad rap, which some deserve, but i feel like their are many like me as well and perhaps people even more passionate just overshadowed by the.. well.. dramacasters lol.

Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 761
391. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:23 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
390. HurricaneHunterJoe
3:22 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Good Morning! A balmy start to the day!


Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Sat, 05 Jul 8:19 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Sat, 05 Jul 8:10 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
05 Jul 8:10 am PDT 75 52 45 E 3G04 OK
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
389. jpsb
3:22 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting 382. CybrTeddy:

For what it's worth, Arthur accumulated an ACE count of 6.8075. I believe that's the highest for a July storm since Dolly in 2008.


I wonder if that will be recalculated. Author does not appear to have been a Cat 2, strong TS / weak Cat 1 would be a better description based on what I have read thus far. The wind data should be good since the eye wall passed over coastal stations. I have yet to see a report of Cat1 winds. One would think a Cat 2 would at least have Cat 1 winds in most of it's eye wall.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1190
388. Barefootontherocks
3:21 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Related to overactive doomcasting:
There is a rule against megalomania that would apply to overactive doomcasting. Flagged comments can be removed.

As online individuals in the aftermath...
Please be sensitive to how you comment after an event that does bring major disaster. Otherwise you fall into the category "weather voyeur who doesn't have a clue."

Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18536
387. Tropicsweatherpr
3:21 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting 384. CybrTeddy:

Completely blown away by how outstanding the HWRF did on Arthur. I think from the time Arthur was declared a tropical cyclone to landfall, the HWRF only deviated roughly 30 miles in either direction and was virtually dead on in intensity.


Don't forget the Euro that also did a great job sniffing the area of formation days before it occured.Was not the best performance by GFS as it had to play catchup.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14213
386. dartboardmodel
3:21 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Good grief, another blob off the east coast. Is there any chance of this thing doing an Arthur??
Member Since: June 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
385. Tropicsweatherpr
3:19 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Neoguri has racked up so far 5.1325 lifting the WPAC numbers to 17.6025. I suspect those numbers will rise a lot in the coming days as Neoguri is forecast to be a SuperTyphoon.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14213
384. CybrTeddy
3:14 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Completely blown away by how outstanding the HWRF did on Arthur. I think from the time Arthur was declared a tropical cyclone to landfall, the HWRF only deviated roughly 30 miles in either direction and was virtually dead on in intensity.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23882
383. zoomiami
3:10 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting 364. ricderr:

We need more folks to just report the facts even if it is boring. Look how quick this blog clears out after minimal damage and how afterwords (landfall) not a peep if all is well..


pretty much agree.......except for the fact...slow weather isn't boring..... we learned a lot from arthur about dry air intrusion and gulf stream warmth.....


I don't really think that is about sensationalism -- the majority of the bloggers here are very interested in the formation of the storm. If you look at any discussion over a storm in the past, it always gets quiet after.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4150
382. CybrTeddy
3:05 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
For what it's worth, Arthur accumulated an ACE count of 6.8075. I believe that's the highest for a July storm since Dolly in 2008.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23882
381. GatorWX
3:04 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Weak little low off GA/SC coast. Weak steering too...





Moderate shear of ~20 kts.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2827
380. BahaHurican
3:00 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting 379. FIUStormChaser:



I live in Florida, however as Arthur continued to move north and make the initial landfall I continued to track and post on here about the storm, afterwards The initial landfall I noticed that their was no posts about Arthur, so I continued to post about Arthur's tropical storm effects in Cape Cod and Nantucket, the 50mph wind, 63mph gusts. And then last night, bluenose actually posted on the blog, and I spoke with him about yarmouths deterioting conditions. I know for a fact that we have quite a bit of bloggers from NS area, so it would be nice to get some observations from them.

Btw, I am still tracking the storm, and it appears eastern Maine is getting hammered with 5+ inches of rain, and Nova Scotia is getting the majority of the wind.
So... 1 FL blogger out of how many? lol.... I know there is a hardcore group of us in here who would track TCs on Jupiter, if it were possible... lol... but the bulk of the bloggers are satisfied to see the storm to their location. They they have other things to do, most frequently including restoring order after a strike or brush, or, if they are lucky, celebrating that it wasn't as bad as it could have been.....

Just pple being pple...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21885
379. FIUStormChaser
2:55 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting BahaHurican:
Or in our case, underwater.

Was thinking how quiet it is in here .... nobody even checking to see if bluenosedave got strong winds / rain up there in Yarmouth.... :o/

But it is typical. We like to joke in here you can tell where the storm is headed by which crowd of bloggers is biggest in the blog.... Wait until we get a storm threatening the Lesser Antilles.... nobody from FL or TX or LA or even NC will be on, but all kinds of Caribbeaners you didn't even know were members will be popping out of the woodwork...


I live in Florida, however as Arthur continued to move north and make the initial landfall I continued to track and post on here about the storm, afterwards The initial landfall I noticed that their was no posts about Arthur, so I continued to post about Arthur's tropical storm effects in Cape Cod and Nantucket, the 50mph wind, 63mph gusts. And then last night, bluenose actually posted on the blog, and I spoke with him about yarmouths deterioting conditions. I know for a fact that we have quite a bit of bloggers from NS area, so it would be nice to get some observations from them.

Btw, I am still tracking the storm, and it appears eastern Maine is getting hammered with 5+ inches of rain, and Nova Scotia is getting the majority of the wind.
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 761
378. GatorWX
2:52 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Good morning all.

Well that escalated fast!



Hope everyone had a good, safe 4th!!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2827
377. BahaHurican
2:44 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting 356. DDR:

It could and will get worse,im glad i wont be around 200 years in the future,basically anywhere above 11n latitude inthe caribbean will be the new Sahara.
Or in our case, underwater.

Quoting 363. forecaster1:

Thanks for sharing, This is what I get crap for here because so many doom casters want to see destruction and major damage, it is a thrill for them... After going through direct hits in St Lucie county in 2004, I can tell you first hand it is no fun and we do not need chasers glorifying for their own thrill, making light or making things look worse than they are.... We need more folks to just report the facts even if it is boring. Look how quick this blog clears out after minimal damage and how afterwords (landfall) not a peep if all is well....
Was thinking how quiet it is in here .... nobody even checking to see if bluenosedave got strong winds / rain up there in Yarmouth.... :o/

But it is typical. We like to joke in here you can tell where the storm is headed by which crowd of bloggers is biggest in the blog.... Wait until we get a storm threatening the Lesser Antilles.... nobody from FL or TX or LA or even NC will be on, but all kinds of Caribbeaners you didn't even know were members will be popping out of the woodwork...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21885
376. hurricanes2018
2:41 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 20603
375. beell
2:41 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting 370. rescueguy:

Hey Beell. Do you think something is gonna spin up off the Tail End of the front off the East Coast? Looks interesting this morning.


With the upper trough sitting just to the west, not anything purely tropical. Initially a surface wave on the boundary enhanced by some upper level support. But it may hang around a while off the east coast-something to watch for at least blob status.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
374. hurricanes2018
2:38 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
why a new update at 11am if we have a ARTHUR Post-Tropical Cyclone
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 20603
373. hurricanes2018
2:37 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

...ARTHUR BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND DOWN EAST MAINE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.5N 66.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST.
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF ARTHUR WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE
CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT
LUNENBURG NOVA SCOTIA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM SURFACE DATA AND NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE REACHED PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
WARNING AREA TODAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE TODAY...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT HAS OVERTAKEN THE CIRCULATION OF ARTHUR.

STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER FAR EASTERN MAINE...WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA...AND NEW
BRUNSWICK...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SWELLS ARE ALSO
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100


why a new update at 11am if we have a ARTHUR Post-Tropical Cyclone
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 20603
372. TimSoCal
2:34 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting 357. hydrus:

This is interesting.



I'll believe it when it happens. There was supposed to be rain in June, but it never materialized either.
Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 705
371. Tropicsweatherpr
2:34 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
15:00z update track has moved slightly west of Okinawa making them get the worse part.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14213
370. rescueguy
2:32 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Hey Beell. Do you think something is gonna spin up off the Tail End of the front off the East Coast? Looks interesting this morning.
Member Since: September 12, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 125
369. sebastianflorida
2:29 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting 321. sar2401:


That was very helpful. Thanks!!!!
Can we stop at Mcdondalds first?
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 698
368. CaneFreeCR
2:26 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting 360. islander101010:

getting a nice rainy season down there in costa rica?
Actually it's been a bit below normal so far. Some heavy rains have been quite localized, but nothing really steady and widespread. I'm on the Atlantic Slope but well inland from the Caribbean, and here we have had showers in the afternoons most but by no means all days, and many just a sprinkle. For sure it's no monsoon!
Member Since: August 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
367. forecaster1
2:25 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
I definitely learned much from this storm it was not boring to me.... The aftermath was not what storm chasers hoped for though....
Quoting 364. ricderr:

We need more folks to just report the facts even if it is boring. Look how quick this blog clears out after minimal damage and how afterwords (landfall) not a peep if all is well..


pretty much agree.......except for the fact...slow weather isn't boring..... we learned a lot from arthur about dry air intrusion and gulf stream warmth.....
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 342
366. FIUStormChaser
2:17 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Any tropical storm force winds reported in Nova Scotia?
Member Since: May 1, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 761
365. beell
2:16 PM GMT on July 05, 2014



07/05 06Z GFS 200 mb heights @ 12Z Saturday



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 96W FROM 11N TO 23N AND IS MOVING
W AT 10-15 KT. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE WAVE AXIS IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 23N W OF
92W INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
364. ricderr
2:15 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
We need more folks to just report the facts even if it is boring. Look how quick this blog clears out after minimal damage and how afterwords (landfall) not a peep if all is well..


pretty much agree.......except for the fact...slow weather isn't boring..... we learned a lot from arthur about dry air intrusion and gulf stream warmth.....
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21579
363. forecaster1
2:03 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Thanks for sharing, This is what I get crap for here because so many doom casters want to see destruction and major damage, it is a thrill for them... After going through direct hits in St Lucie county in 2004, I can tell you first hand it is no fun and we do not need chasers glorifying for their own thrill, making light or making things look worse than they are.... We need more folks to just report the facts even if it is boring. Look how quick this blog clears out after minimal damage and how afterwords (landfall) not a peep if all is well....
Quoting 354. beell:

The Online Weather World Should Take a Chill Pill, Before an Actual Disaster Strikes/weather5280.com-July 1st, 2014
Member Since: June 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 342
362. beell
2:02 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting 359. ricderr:


The Online Weather World Should Take a Chill Pill, Before an Actual Disaster Strikes/weather5280.com-July 1st, 2014



very good article beell....theres a fine line.......


Mornin' ric.
And many don't realize they have crossed it in the rush.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
361. DDR
1:55 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting islander101010:
getting a nice rainy season down there in costa rica?

I'm sure they are,more rain falls there than here,im in Trinidad.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1699
360. islander101010
1:52 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
getting a nice rainy season down there in costa rica?
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4496
359. ricderr
1:52 PM GMT on July 05, 2014

The Online Weather World Should Take a Chill Pill, Before an Actual Disaster Strikes/weather5280.com-July 1st, 2014



very good article beell....theres a fine line.......
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21579
358. accu35
1:49 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Good morning everyone, taking my family on vacation tomorrow to Waterville in gulf shores, can anybody tell me is it fun.
Member Since: June 8, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
357. hydrus
1:47 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
This is interesting.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
356. DDR
1:45 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
It could and will get worse,im glad i wont be around 200 years in the future,basically anywhere above 11n latitude inthe caribbean will be the new Sahara.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1699
355. hydrus
1:44 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting 353. Sfloridacat5:



No matter how you look at it, Arthur had well below CAT2 winds over land.
Most the reporting stations that experienced the eye/eye wall of Arthur had Tropical Storm force winds.
Many reporting stations only saw sustained winds in the 40 mph range with gusts to 50-60mph that had the eye pass directly over their location.

You can always search for isolated wind gusts from any storm. A CAT2 should easily produce wind gusts in the 120-130 mph range.
Winds in that range will produce wide spread structural damage (which was not observed with Arthur).
The only real wind damage I saw was from Arthur was from isolated tornadoes inland well inland from the coast.
good morning SF5. I have been watching tropics for decades. I too am from South Florida. One thing I have learned is that tropical cyclones are strange and fickle, and not just in the Atlantic Basin, but in all tropical cyclone belts around the planet. I have seen them form from what appeared to be nothing but a small area of cloud and grow into large killers. I cannot remember the year, but there was what the Mets in India called a micro cyclone 31 miles in diameter skirt the coast and killed over 1500 people. It happened with so fast, they couldnt get warnings out in time.It does happen here too. In 1982 we were in the Keys when the No Name storm formed rapidly, catching many folks off guard. There not much in the way of historical data on the system and I,m not sure why. The hybrid storms seem to crank up faster because they have both baroclinic and tropical characteristics, utilizing both to form rapid forming gales or storms. There were reports of 90 mph gusts during the No Name.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
354. beell
1:34 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
353. Sfloridacat5
1:26 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting Stormwatch247:
Analyzing Hurricane Arthur .....

Hurricane Arthur may not have delivered the sustained wind speeds that are normally associated with a CAT2 100MPH hurricane, but it was still very interesting to watch! Like everyone says on here, hurricanes of the same category (in this case, CAT2) has a personality that makes it different from the last land-falling CAT2 hurricane.

More wind GUST recordings: Ocracoke Island, NC, had 99MPH wind gusts, and Pamlico Sound, NC also reported 99MPH wind gusts. It appears that Cape Lookout, NC had the highest official wind gust recorded at 101MPH.

Official weather reporting stations are just small points within a land-falling hurricane, and it is possible that the highest winds are missed or not sampled by the official wind gauges.

Just an observation: It appears that in many land-falling hurricanes the max (1 minute sustained) winds reported, are usually only measured in (3-5 second) GUSTS.

In this case, we had 99MPH and 101MPH wind gusts recorded in Hurricane Arthur, but the max (100MPH sustained 1 minute) winds were not actually recorded at any land stations. However, there are probably some remote areas in NC that were hit fairly hard by this hurricane, but have not been reported in the media or news.

The fact that 100MPH Hurricane Arthur was fast moving may have also contributed to the lack of damage. Just for comparison, Hurricane Georges (1998) was a 105MPH CAT2 hurricane that made landfall near Ocean Springs-Biloxi, MS. At landfall, Georges was moving/drifting inland very slowly, and this resulted in a LOT of wind damage. The hurricane seemed to last forever! Also, Georges did not have to fight the dry air intrusion that Arthur was constantly battling. Arthur was moving a lot faster, and the winds did not last as long.

In some ways, the formation and development of Hurricane Arthur reminds me of Hurricane Danny (JULY 1997). Both hurricanes were originally low pressure systems that moved from the continental US, into the waters off the US coasts. Both hurricanes formed in July, and made US landfalls.

Hope the Outer Banks, NC, and other areas can salvage the rest of their weekend, and glad for them the damage was not too extreme, and there was no loss of life.




No matter how you look at it, Arthur had well below CAT2 winds over land.
Most the reporting stations that experienced the eye/eye wall of Arthur had Tropical Storm force winds.
Many reporting stations only saw sustained winds in the 40 mph range with gusts to 50-60mph that had the eye pass directly over their location.

You can always search for isolated wind gusts from any storm. A CAT2 should easily produce wind gusts in the 120-130 mph range.
Winds in that range will produce wide spread structural damage (which was not observed with Arthur).
The only real wind damage I saw from Arthur was from isolated tornadoes well inland from the coast.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6547
352. barbamz
1:24 PM GMT on July 05, 2014
Quoting 351. Tropicsweatherpr:

Noeguri going thru an EWRC?


Eye still is somehow ragged anyway.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 53 Comments: 5917

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.