The Heat is on in Greenland: Support the Dark Snow Project

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on June 25, 2014

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The heat is on in Greenland, where the high temperature on Tuesday hit an unusually warm 67°F at Kangerlussuaq (Sønder Strømfjord) in southwestern Greenland. It's been a hot June at Kangerlussuaq, where the temperature peaked at 73°F on June 15. That's not far below the all-time hottest temperature ever recorded in Greenland of 78.6°F, set just last year on July 30 at nearby Maniitsoq Mittarfia, as documented at wunderground's extremes page. The unusual warmth this year melted nearly 40% of the Greenland Ice Sheet in mid-June, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center--far above the usual 15% figure. The warm June temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer, and scientists with the Dark Snow Project are on the ice, 48 miles east Kangerlussuaq, conducting a two-month field experiment on the causes and implications of Greenland ice melt.


Video 1. Glaciologist Dr. Jason Box and climate change filmmaker Peter Sinclair explain the 2013 results and 2014 mission of the Darksnow project.

The Dark Snow Project
In 2013, glaciologist Dr. Jason Box of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland launched the first crowd-funded Arctic expedition: The Dark Snow Project. The field study succeeded in its scientific mission of landing a team deep within the Greenland sheet, sampling the 2012 melt layer, and returning those samples for analysis. The results, soon to be published, showed a pronounced spike in black carbon at the critical layer, and indicated the strong need for more research. The "burning question": How much does wildfire and industrial soot darken the ice, increasing melt? Was the record melt and record darkness of the ice sheet in 2012 a harbinger of the future? A darker ice sheet absorbs more solar energy, in a vicious cycle that raises temperatures, melts more ice, and further darkens the ice sheet. The amount of melting that was caused by soot from forest fires is important to know, since global warming is likely to increase the amount of forest fires in coming decades. However, the amount of forest fire soot landing on the Greenland Ice Sheet is almost completely unknown.


Figure 1. Smoke from a fire in Labrador, Canada wafts over the Greenland ice sheet on June 17, 2012, as seen in this cross-section view of aerosol particles taken by NASA's CALIPSO satellite. Image credit: Dr. Jason Box, Ohio State University.

Saving Greenland's Ice Sheet is Imperative
Human-caused global warming has set in motion an unstoppable slow-motion collapse of the glaciers in West Antarctica capable of raising global sea level by 4 feet (1.2 meters) in a few hundred years, said NASA in a May 2014 press release. What's more, one of the glaciers involved, the Thwaites Glacier, acts as a linchpin on the rest of the ice sheet, which contains enough ice to cause a total of 10 to 13 feet (3 to 4 meters) of global sea level rise over a period of centuries. This unstoppable collapse makes saving Greenland "absolutely essential", said glaciologist Richard Alley in a May 2014 interview in Mother Jones. Greenland's ice sheet holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 7.36 meters (24.15 feet) were it all to melt, and civilization would be hard-pressed to deal with 10 - 13 feet of sea level rise from West Antarctica, let alone another 20+ feet from Greenland. "If we've committed to 3.3 meters (10.8') from West Antarctica, we haven't committed to losing Greenland, we haven't committed to losing most of East Antarctica," said Alley. "Those are still out there for us. And if anything, this new news just makes our decisions more important, and more powerful." Unfortunately, the Greenland Ice Sheet is much more vulnerable to melting than previously thought, found a May 2014 study by Morlighem et al., Deeply incised submarine glacial valleys beneath the Greenland ice sheet. The researchers found that widespread ice-covered valleys extend much deeper below sea level and farther inland than previously thought, and would likely melt significantly from steadily warming waters lapping at Greenland's shores.


Figure 2. Monthly changes in the total mass (in Gigatonnes) of the Greenland ice sheet estimated from GRACE satellite measurements between March 2002 - July 2013. The blue and orange asterisks denote April and July values, respectively. Note that the decline in ice mass lost from Greenland is not a straight line--it is exponential, meaning that in general, more ice loss is lost each year than in the previous year. However, the mass loss during the 2013 summer melt season was probably smaller than during 2012, said the 2013 Arctic Report Card.

Support for the Dark Snow Hypothesis
Observational evidence for the Dark Snow project's hypothesis that upwind forest fires might darken the Greenland Ice Sheet and cause significant melting was provided by a May 2014 paper by Keegan et al., Climate change and forest fires synergistically drive widespread melt events of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Their ice core study found that black carbon from forest fires helped caused a rare, near-ice-sheet-wide surface melt event that melted 97% of Greenland's surface on July 11 - 12 2012, and a similar event in 1889. Since Arctic temperatures and the frequency of forest fires are both expected to rise with climate change, the results suggest that widespread melt events on the Greenland Ice Sheet may begin to occur almost annually by the end of century.

Another factor contributing to a darker Greenland Ice Sheet and more melting may be additional wind-blown dust landing on the ice, according to a June 2014 study, Contribution of light-absorbing impurities in snow to Greenland's darkening since 2009. In an interview with ClimateWire, lead author Marie Dumont of France’s meteorological agency said, "Our hypothesis is that now that seasonal snow cover in the Arctic is retreating earlier than before, and bare soil is available earlier in the Spring for dust transport."

Related Jeff Masters blog posts
Slow-Motion Collapse of West Antarctic Glaciers is Unstoppable, 2 New Studies Say (May 13, 2014)
Dark Snow Project: Crowd-Source Funded Science for Greenland (April 26, 2013)
Greenland experiences melting over 97% of its area in mid-July (July 25, 2012)
Record warmth at the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (July 18, 2012)
Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt (May, 2012)
Greenland update for 2010: record melting and a massive calving event

The http://www.greenlandmelting.com/ website has good resources for following this year's melt progression in Greenland.


Video 2. In a follow-up video, Dark Snow Project communications director Peter Sinclair explains how the recent finding of unstoppable West Antarctic glacial melt makes the saving of Greenland's glaciers absolutely essential.

Support the Dark Snow Project
One of Dr. Box's collaborators, photographer James Balog, who created the amazing time-lapse Greenland glacier footage in the fantastic 2012 "Chasing Ice" movie, puts it like this: "Working in Greenland these past years has left me with a profound feeling of being in the middle of a decisive historic moment--the kind of moment, at least in geologic terms, that marks the grand tidal changes of history." On that note, I encourage you all to consider a tax-deductible donation to the Dark Snow Project. The project has already raised $30,000, and hopes to raise another $10,000. One of the major uses for the money will be to pay for the portable Internet satellite gear needed to do regular posting, messaging, and skyping from the ice during July and August. The June 22 update from Dr. Box, as posted in Peter Sinclair's blog: "We saw a water fountain on the horizon, spouting to 100 feet above the surface. I think it is either a lot of water trying to fall down a small moulin cavitating, or a river on the ice sheet taking a violent turn. The spout lasted at least 18 hours!"

The tropics are still quiet and expected to remain so over the next five days, so I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

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883. arcticmelt
6:05 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Sad when such important science projects has to beg for money..I sent a few bucks so the co2 measurements could continue in Hawaii,started by Dr Keeing...plenty of money for the world Cup and all that keeps the Corporate media running riotously
Member Since: February 23, 2014 Posts: 51 Comments: 9
882. weatherbro
5:51 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 832. StormTrackerScott:

SOI is tanking right now with a daily value of -24.3. It appears the atmosphere is in an
El-Nino state now and this thing could be declared in July.

Another westerly wind burst appears to moving across the Dateline.




Well it's about time lol. I'm getting tired of this mugwump atmosphere.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1393
881. NativeSun
4:05 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Hi Taz, your guess to how many storms this year is only as good as anybody else's. 5 to 7 seems a little low as the so called experts are predicting 9 to 11, but as I said earlier your guess is as good as theirs.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 295
880. georgevandenberghe
3:29 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting SouthTampa:

The bemoaning of soccer selection rules got me thinking about more popular sports in America. Generally, the less games we play, the more arcane our selection of one over the other becomes (especially when scoring is low). I am fine with the soccer rules except for coin tosses and using PK to determine a tournament win (I'd rather have something like hockey - just play OT until someone scores).


This is also one of the few advantages of baseball over other sports. BTW I don't like the hockey shootout concept and think they should just play until a score.
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 2237
879. LargoFl
3:20 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42277
878. rmbjoe1954
3:07 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 875. Grothar:


I gave an entire explanation 4 days ago. Pay attention. :):)

I think there is a very good chance of it getting very close to Tropical Storm strength. It appears it will be a slow mover.



Notice the big high which has been almost stationary on the Florida west coast.



Yes sir Mr.Grothar (said submissively with tail between legs)
8-)
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1439
877. SouthTampa
3:03 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 853. rayduray2013:


Thanks. This is the first time I've seen that page. I note the ultimate importance of coin tosses. :)


The bemoaning of soccer selection rules got me thinking about more popular sports in America. Generally, the less games we play, the more arcane our selection of one over the other becomes (especially when scoring is low). I am fine with the soccer rules except for coin tosses and using PK to determine a tournament win (I'd rather have something like hockey - just play OT until someone scores).
Member Since: June 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 146
876. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:02 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Looks like a surface low over upstate South Carolina. This feature should move offshore later today or early tomorrow morning as it rounds the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Still expecting this thing to linger off the Southeast...maybe scrape a coastline or two (Florida, North Carolina). Wind shear is light and sea surface temperatures are warm, but the same trough that should kick it northeastward in a few days might also be responsible for its death (absorption). Still sticking with 40% chance of Arthur.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
875. Grothar
2:58 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 863. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Gro,
What do you think this will be if it lands in East central Florida? Will it be just a 'low' that will saturate us or something else?

Thanks.


I gave an entire explanation 4 days ago. Pay attention. :):)

I think there is a very good chance of it getting very close to Tropical Storm strength. It appears it will be a slow mover.



Notice the big high which has been almost stationary on the Florida west coast.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
874. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:55 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
873. HurricaneHunterJoe
2:55 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 866. TimSoCal:



Is... is that a TC remnant off SoCal? Yes please.


Right turn baby!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
872. ricderr
2:48 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
all negative...on the recon ghostrider


Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22383
871. Patrap
2:45 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Its like the Tropical Pre-Season Game here the last week.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
870. Patrap
2:44 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
869. hydrus
2:41 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 866. TimSoCal:



Is... is that a TC remnant off SoCal? Yes please.
Not sure yet, but I hope this trough comes south to cool things down. Fall temps in summer for us if the GFS is correct.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22728
868. Patrap
2:41 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 261248
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT THU 26 JUNE 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-026

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
867. ColoradoBob1
2:34 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Attention climate deniers: This scientist will give you $10,000 for actual proof that global warming is a hoax
Physicist Christopher Keating tells Salon about his plan to get climate deniers to "put up or shut up"

Link
Member Since: August 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3191
866. TimSoCal
2:29 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 849. hydrus:


Is... is that a TC remnant off SoCal? Yes please.
Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 836
865. georgevandenberghe
2:27 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting opal92nwf:
I really hate to say this, but i don't think anything is going to happen between now and August.


Other than midlatitude storms, fronts, thunderstorms , derechos, heatwaves cool spells, arctic meltout, droughts, floods

naahh, nothing

Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 2237
864. ricderr
2:24 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
and just in time to explain noise.....climate gives us their latest enso blog

The ENSO Signal and The Noise
Author: Michelle L'Heureux
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
The Signal and the Noise is often mentioned in reference to ENSO forecasting and not just in reference to Nate Silver’s bestselling book. In fact, understanding what is signal and what is noise is critical to interpreting predictions from models and climate science in general. Very generally:

(1) Signal: Signal is the part of the forecast that can be predicted if one were to build a perfect climate model (for example, physical relationships between and within the ocean and atmosphere are perfectly understood and coded into the model). In seasonal climate prediction, signal can arise from the surface conditions, such as sea surface temperatures, land cover, or sea ice, which vary more slowly than faster atmospheric motions.

(2) Noise: Noise is the part of the forecast that cannot be predicted. Despite having a perfect model and understanding of the physical system, there will always be some uncertainty associated with the forecast because imprecise observations made at the time of the forecast (also known as errors in initial conditions) will grow into the future. Think of the noise as akin to the famous “butterfly flaps its wings” example – a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil and the ripple effect contributes to a tornado in Texas (Lorenz, 1963, 1972).

Now how does this help us understand ENSO predictions? Obviously, we do not have perfect models at our fingertips. However, the concepts of signal and noise are still helpful to interpreting model forecasts and the expected uncertainty around them. Here is a recent forecast from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2):


CFSv2 forecasts initialized from 12-21 June 2014 for Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies. The model data has been statistically (PDF) corrected and updates are provided here. Map by NOAA Climate.gov based on data provided by Wanqiu Wang, CPC.
The forecast model is started using recent observations (started at slightly different moments in time) that are measured by satellites, buoys, etc. and then the model is run forward out to 8 seasons (here, any 3-month average is a season). Each individual, grey line in the figure is referred to as a model member and represents one possible outcome, based on just one initial condition at one time. All of the members averaged together is called the ensemble mean and is shown by the dashed, red line. In the figure above, the start dates range from June 12 through 21 (10 days), run from 4 different start times each day, so 10 x 4 = 40 members.

The ensemble mean is the model’s estimate of the signal, which is one predictable part of the forecast (1). However, clearly, the individual members show a wide variety, or spread, of possible outcomes. One can expect the actual reality will have the same characteristics as any one of those members. In theory, each member has the same probability of occurring. We ENSO forecasters bet that the future has a higher chance of being closer to where the members cluster together near the ensemble average (red dashed line), but the fact is, the future conditions could be closest to any one of the model members (grey lines).

Many folks will consider the forecast to be a failure when it does not match the expected signal (the ensemble mean), but the observed reality will always be some combination of signal + noise. This is why ENSO and climate outlooks are expressed in terms of probability (i.e. what is the chance of El Niño?). This is also why making forecasts for the strength of El Niño or La Niña is always fraught with uncertainty: the spread of possible outcomes is clearly larger than the width of any one strength category (see definitions).

In part because we don’t have a perfect model, we often examine the ensemble means from many different types of models (see IRI/CPC plume and North American Multi-Model Ensemble), hoping that the average of those will cancel out individual model errors. This strategy is called using multi-model ensembles (MME).

So, this is why on June 5th 2014, we slightly favored a moderate strength El Niño. The observed reality will ultimately be some factor we cannot know in advance due to the noise.
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22383
863. rmbjoe1954
2:23 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 861. Grothar:
I told you so; I told you so!!!



Hi Gro,
What do you think this will be if it lands in East central Florida? Will it be just a 'low' that will saturate us or something else?

Thanks.
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1439
862. GreatSlaveLake
2:22 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 811. RCThunder:

The NHC website and NOAA sites have been down periodically for weeks now. What is the deal?


I think there is an inherent glitch in their website .... try clicking on the graph to enlarge it; often, as it enlarges, it updates to the latest version.
Member Since: March 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
861. Grothar
2:21 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
I told you so; I told you so!!!

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
860. ColoradoBob1
2:17 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Drifting Continents Caused the Quaternary Ice Age 2.6 Million Years Ago

“Until now, the cause of the Quaternary ice age had been a hotly debated topic,” said Thomas Stevens, one of the researchers, in a news release. “Our findings suggest a significant link between ice sheet growth, the monsoon and the closing of the Panama Seaway, as North and South America drifted closer together. This provides us with a major new theory on the origins of the ice age, and ultimately our current climate system.”
More specifically, the scientists found that the joining of North and South America changed the salinity of the Pacific Ocean. This, in turn, caused major ice sheet growth across the Northern Hemisphere since the change in salinity encouraged sea ice to form. The sea ice then changed wind patterns and lead to increased and intensified monsoons, which caused an increase in snowfall.


Link
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859. ricderr
2:16 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
you can see a result of the tradewinds picking up in the daily values of the ENSO 3.4 region.....in the last 12 hours the anomaly has dropped 0.15 c to where it is now under 1.0 c....the week should end up averaging at about a 1.0 c value...which is quite impressive.....we're just once again seeing...that this is a long term event...and something that we can watch daily...but need the patience to realize daily values contain a lot of "noise"


Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22383
858. PedleyCA
2:15 PM GMT on June 27, 2014

Coastal Eddy in play again this morning. 66.6F here...
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6260
857. HurricaneHunterJoe
2:11 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Good Morning Class!

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 27 Jun 7:09 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 27 Jun 7:00 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
27 Jun 7:00 am PDT 55 53 92 ENE 2G04 OK
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
856. ricderr
2:10 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
tradewinds in the ENSO region are mixed.....in the far eastern section of quadrant 3...and in 1 &2...there's still an eastward push coming from the south...however in the 3.4 section and section 4....strong winds to the west have once again picked up.......el nino still not acting as he should....you can see the tradewinds here
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22383
855. ricderr
2:02 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
latest cfsv2 forecast....means is still under 1.5.......

Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22383
854. CaribBoy
1:55 PM GMT on June 27, 2014


Stratocumulus clouds in the sky means that it's very dry.... we often see those clouds in the Canary Islands.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6456
853. rayduray2013
1:49 PM GMT on June 27, 2014

Quoting SouthTampa:


Have you seen the NFL tiebreaker rules? http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
Thanks. This is the first time I've seen that page. I note the ultimate importance of coin tosses. :)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 479
852. congaline
1:42 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Daniel Noah, meteorologist N.O.A.A. coming to our library today to talk on Florida Weather with the kids! So excited that he has agreed to come and share the excitement of weather science with my young 'uns! Daniel if you see this post, thanks again! Can't wait to see you!
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 340
851. SouthTampa
1:33 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 704. rayduray2013:


Thanks. I love it when I learn something.

For example, that FIFA scoring requires a Ph.D. in logic to fathom its inscrutability.



Have you seen the NFL tiebreaker rules? http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
Member Since: June 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 146
850. islander101010
1:15 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
look at that moisture streaming to LA
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5009
849. hydrus
1:13 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22728
848. Autistic2
1:10 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting Tazmanian:




get ready for some crow has that will be wrong will be luckey if we get 5 two 7 name storms this year


I know.....but when I joined this blog in 08 my tropical genesis knowledge was 0 on a sale of 1-100. Now it is probably a 30 :(. but trying.

Whis Levi would make another video just updating his thoughts on the season. I always watch them 3 or 4 times as he breaks things down real good!
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 480
847. Autistic2
1:03 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-x7pZcFeZ-0Q/Uh9UuZC0qXI/A AAAAAAAPmE/quudULqyQU4/s1600/2yellow.gif

8 am August 29 2013 yellow over Africa but not the one I remember
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 480
846. Tazmanian
12:59 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 843. Autistic2:

OK I am staying by my pre season forecast. This is the first time I ever tried to actually make a semi educated guess at this. For the record. Still a long time to go.

If necessary I like my crow in a pie!

15 named storms
7 canes
1 cat four or five
2 named systems hitting US 1 at least a cat two





get ready for some crow has that will be wrong will be luckey if we get 5 two 7 name storms this year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
845. Patrap
12:59 PM GMT on June 27, 2014


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
844. Tazmanian
12:58 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 842. StormTrackerScott:

2C anomalies now being depicted for Nino 3.4 in the OND timeframe. This is a big change from earlier this month when this model was showing a weak el-nino.





but do we no where EL nino will set up yet?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
843. Autistic2
12:58 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
OK I am staying by my pre season forecast. This is the first time I ever tried to actually make a semi educated guess at this. For the record. Still a long time to go.

If necessary I like my crow in a pie!

15 named storms
7 canes
1 cat four or five
2 named systems hitting US 1 at least a cat two
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 480
842. StormTrackerScott
12:56 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
2C anomalies now being depicted for Nino 3.4 in the OND timeframe. This is a big change from earlier this month when this model was showing a weak el-nino.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4774
841. Autistic2
12:53 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I think it's to just let us know the origin of the Low. We won't see a tropical system form over land in the Carolinas. But once the Low moves off shore, it may slowly develop into a tropical system.
I know I don't remember yellow circles being over land that far north in the U.S. I'm sure the guys with more time will find some.


I remember seeing one about two hundred miles inland of Africa and went orange wile still 20-50 miles inland. Will try to find the map, worked 16 hours yesterday in the heat so taking the day off today :)
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 480
840. Naga5000
12:52 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 835. Tazmanian:




why are some of you Quoteing him when most of us got in on ignore list


Public shaming, Taz. :)
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3969
839. StormTrackerScott
12:51 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 837. Tazmanian:



hi


could this SOI map be broken then? has its still showing +8.2 for SOI







30 day average I believe is now at 2 when it was over 8 last week.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 9 Comments: 4774
838. MahFL
12:50 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 817. ncstorm:

maybe Im getting old but I dont remember ever seeing a circle on land?


It happens regularly.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3850
837. Tazmanian
12:49 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 832. StormTrackerScott:

SOI is tanking right now with a daily value of -24.3. It appears the atmosphere is in an
El-Nino state now and this thing could be declared in July.

Another westerly wind burst appears to moving across the Dateline.




hi


could this SOI map be broken then? has its still showing 8.2 for SOI has soon has i post it on here it shows 4.4 for SOI but i still think the map is broken




Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
836. rayduray2013
12:48 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
World Meteorological Organization press release, June 26, 2014

WMO Update: Prepare for El Niño

In brief:

"Geneva, 26 June 2014 (WMO) - There is a 60% likelihood of an El Niño
being fully established between June and August, increasing to 75-80%
for the October to December period, according to an El Niño Update
issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Based on advice
from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, many governments
have already started preparing for the arrival of El Niño, which is
associated with regional-scale drought and flood situations in different
parts of the world and has a warming influence on global average
surface temperatures."

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 479
835. Tazmanian
12:47 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 833. CitikatzSouthFL:


Good Lord...are you for real? NO ONE on this tropical blog wants death, doom and destrcution, but we DO want tropical cyclones to form so we can follow their development with the sincerest wish that they are just "fish storms" and no threat to land. Get off you high horse and just enjoy the chat on this blog.



why are some of you Quoteing him when most of us got in on ignore list
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
834. rayduray2013
12:44 PM GMT on June 27, 2014


Quoting Naga5000:

Lol. Nice trolling, care to share any evidence? I'd be interested to see it since it doesn't exist.

North Pole recovery? Please show me on the chart where you find one...

The Greenland Ice sheet has lost mass and the rate has doubled over the past 9 years.

Antarctica is also losing land ice.

While the increase in Southern Hemisphere sea ice is directly related to a warming world: Link

So, "buddy ole pal" get your facts straight.
Naga,

Nice rebuttal. I believe our problem though might be that "Alyssa" from Chicago is impervious to facts.

Alyssa reminds me of the fellows in the truck, not the girl on the curb in this video of Alyssa like consciousness:


Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 479
833. CitikatzSouthFL
12:42 PM GMT on June 27, 2014
Quoting 809. StormingInChicago:

Why would you hate to say that? I tell you what, I think a million people along the Gulf and East Coasts probably LOVE to hear that.

I guess I could understand your statement if you want destruction and to see people's lives ruined...

Good Lord...are you for real? NO ONE on this tropical blog wants death, doom and destrcution, but we DO want tropical cyclones to form so we can follow their development with the sincerest wish that they are just "fish storms" and no threat to land. Get off you high horse and just enjoy the chat on this blog.
Member Since: August 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 471

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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