Atlantic Hurricane Outlook for the Remainder of June

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:12 PM GMT on June 20, 2014

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There were no tropical cyclones anywhere in the world on Friday, and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis in the Atlantic (European, GFS, and UKMET) is predicting development over the coming five days. There is a tropical disturbance off the east coast of Florida that radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows some spin to. However, satellite loops show the area of heavy thunderstorms is very limited, and there is a lot of dry air interfering with thunderstorm development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10%. The disturbance will likely head northeast out to sea over the weekend.


Figure 1. Tropical disturbance off the east coast of Florida as seen at 11:15 am EDT June 20, 2014. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Hurricane Forecast for the Remainder of June
Vertical wind shear is predicted to be very high over most of the tropical Atlantic the remainder of June, reducing the odds of tropical storm formation. With the active thunderstorm area of the MJO predicted to remain over the Pacific Ocean the rest of June, this will favor dry, sinking air over the Atlantic, further discouraging tropical storms from forming. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which are close to average over the Caribbean (an anomaly of +0.1°F) and cooler than average over the Gulf of Mexico (an anomaly of -0.2°F) will do no favors for any potential June tropical storms that try to form. If development does occur in June, the most likely location would be off the east coast of Florida, between the Bahamas and Bermuda, where SSTs are slightly above average and wind shear will be lower. Storms that form in this region are typically only a threat to Bermuda.

Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, six of the nineteen years (32%) did not have a named storm develop in June. I give an 80% chance that 2014 will join that list. The most recent year without a June named storm developing was the El Niño year of 2009. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. There were two June named storms in 2013, Andrea and Barry.


Figure 2. Predicted vertical wind shear between the 850 mb and 200 mb levels for 8 am EDT Friday, June 27, 2014, as predicted by the 00Z Friday, June 20, 2014 run of the European model. High wind shear is predicted for most of the tropical Atlantic, thanks to the presence of strong upper-level winds from the subtropical jet stream (marked with arrows.) Low wind shear (red colors) are predicted for the waters of the Bahama Islands and in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico.


Figure 3. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2014 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was been much lower than average during June, primarily due to dry, sinking air from aloft and outbreaks of dry air from Africa's Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Low instability reduces the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Looking ENE....



Clouds are laughing at me as usual :/ Why in the world those rains always stay OVER WATER, while some in the GROUND need RAIN!
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Quoting 49. CybrTeddy:



I think they could, if a Cape Verde storm manages to hold together across the bone-dry MDR and make it north of the islands, it could blossom into a powerful major hurricane as it curves out harmlessly to sea.
The conditions off the east coast have been favorable.I'm worried a storm will take advantage of these conditions.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42085
Storms are now moving into the Miami metro from the west.
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The Low off the coast of Florida is still influencing the thunderstorm movement across the state. Storms are moving north to south and then being pulled back around to the east across Southern Fl.
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Quoting 36. CybrTeddy:



I don't know, I'm expecting a El Nino event similar to 2009 and that season managed to crank out four in August.

Holding solid with 8-4-2 here, although 8-2-1 is also starting to appeal to me.

Well, if it's going to get anywhere close to my predictions of 11-5-1, It's going to need to pick up sooner than later.
Not too worried about it yet, but we'll have to see come August. May need to bring my predictions down a bit. Holding my ground for now.
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Quoting Climate175:
Could conditions be productive enough for a Bill like 2009?


I think they could, if a Cape Verde storm manages to hold together across the bone-dry MDR and make it north of the islands, it could blossom into a powerful major hurricane as it curves out harmlessly to sea.
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Quoting 46. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Active is subjective I guess. The climatological average is 4 anyways.
Hmm.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4750
Also, for the folks on the space coast, SpaceX will try to launch the Falcon 9 today. Like the last one, the first stage will fire after stage separation to land in the ocean. Unlike the last launch, it'll actually turn around and come back towards the cape, landing closer to the coast. Goal is this year to land it, I'd imagine on one of the old 60s launch pads near Jetty Park.

Let's hope the weather holds, seabreeze starting to kick in. Expecting a collision that could put a damper on things.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I don't know, I'm expecting a El Nino event similar to 2009 and that season managed to crank out four in August.

Holding solid with 8-4-2 here, although 8-2-1 is also starting to appeal to me.

Active is subjective I guess. The climatological average is 4 anyways.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
The average date of the first named Atlantic storm is July 9. Having too much time on my hands, I decided to calculate the average date for the past 10 seasons, and it's June 18. I know we're in an 'active phase' for Atlantic tropical storms, but it looks like global warming may be having an effect, too.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a broad area of low pressure located about 750 miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico. However, upper-level winds are expected to
become less favorable for development during the next couple of days
while the system begins to move northward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brennan
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4750
Quoting washingtonian115:
I know your not talking/avoiding me.But i could see this being like 2009 as well.The east Atlantic wasn't that favorable that year too with the cool sst and outbreaks of dry air/SAL.The Caribbean was shut down all season until Ida.


Huh? What gives you the idea I'm avoiding you? You've done nothing to warrant such treatment. I happen to agree.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished in association with
a weak area of low pressure located about 80 miles east-northeast
of Daytona Beach, Florida. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable for significant development while the system
drifts slowly northward this afternoon and tonight and begins to
accelerate northeastward on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4750
Thanks Jeff...
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Quoting 36. CybrTeddy:



I don't know, I'm expecting a El Nino event similar to 2009 and that season managed to crank out four in August.

Holding solid with 8-4-2 here, although 8-2-1 is also starting to appeal to me.
I know your not talking/avoiding me.But i could see this being like 2009 as well.The east Atlantic wasn't that favorable that year too with the cool sst and outbreaks of dry air/SAL.The Caribbean was shut down all season until Ida.
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Glad this looks to be winding down for TX. Seems the river should recede rather quickly judging by the wording in the flood warning.
"Flood stage is 4.0 feet (1.2 meters). * Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast. * Forecast...the river will continue rising to near 11.2 feet (3.4 meters) by this afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage this evening."

Ok, I'm really leaving now. Time for food! And yes, GT, seems a little sumpin sumpin might be brewing in the epac. Models hint at it, but keep it weak.
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Some great home video of Hurricane Andrew has been surfacing recently on Youtube, including rare footage in the eyewall. Here is an entire classic hurricane experience caught on camera. Hopefully, this will motivate us all to make sure we know what to do to protect ourselves and our property if we are faced with a hurricane this year. All credit to Patrick McKart; thanks for uploading this!
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See you all.

28.903N 78.464W, ~100 miles east of Cape Canaveral

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wouldn't hold your breath for an active August this year.


I don't know, I'm expecting a El Nino event similar to 2009 and that season managed to crank out four in August.

Holding solid with 8-4-2 here, although 8-2-1 is also starting to appeal to me.
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you can go to earthnullschool.net and see that the winds have indeed shifted west over the eastern portion of the pacific...which is responsible for the latest uptick in enso values.....it needs to move further west...and it needs to last...or else we'll be flat lining again...
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22351
I think the following is a good article....what struck me funny though...was the author...andy freedman....was the same person that tweeted el nino would be declared june 5th that some jumped all over the band wagon with him...and now in his first paragraph he talks about hype...LOL

Why You Can't Blame El Niño for Extreme Weather (Yet)

BY ANDREW FREEDMAN

Over the past several months, there has been a lot of hype about an upcoming El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which would upend global weather patterns in ways that might squelch the California drought and lead to a record warm year worldwide.

El Niño conditions are characterized by above average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, as well as changes in the trade winds that typically blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific. In addition, there are changes to where towering thunderstorms form across the tropics, with a shift in heavy rains away from the western Pacific.


Despite the fact that sea surface temperatures are above average in some of the right spots in the Pacific, El Niño conditions are not quite mature enough to declare it "here" yet. This is partly the ocean's fault and partly the atmosphere's.

Come on, get it together, guys.

The formation of El Niño is a lot like a first date. There's nervous conversation between the air and the ocean, both of them showing a hypersensitivity to each other's words. If the mood isn't right, there won't be a second date or a third. But every once in a while (in this case, every three to seven years), things click — and they last for a year or two before breaking up again.

In this case, the ocean knows what it wants, but the atmosphere is playing hard to get. In this case, the ocean knows what it wants, but the atmosphere is playing hard to get.

Climate scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) said on Thursday that they still anticipate an El Niño event will take place within the next six months or so, with the odds of one peaking at 82% for the November through January time frame.

Kelvin Wave Evolution
The evolution of a strong Kelvin Wave, transporting warm water from west to east across the Pacific (right to left). Note the cooler ocean temperatures in the western Pacific in the bottom image, which shows the lack of another
Stephen Baxter, a forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, says the latest observations show there has been “a little bit of a slowdown in what we were thinking would occur in terms of an El Niño developing.”

The problem, Baxter says, is that while the sea surface temperatures are above average across much of the tropical Pacific, the atmospheric signs of an El Niño have not yet shown up. Such signs includes increased thunderstorm activity in the central tropical Pacific and reduced or reversed trade winds.


The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which also closely monitors El Niño development, says the ocean has slowed down its warming trend. Areas of warmer than average water temperatures in the western Pacific, near Indonesia, are also atypical for an El Niño, the Bureau said in an update on Tuesday.


However, that may be changing.

"There is some indication that the atmosphere has become a little more responsive," Baxter said. One indication of a developing El Niño is a burst of westerly winds, which can in turn cause a ripple of warmer than average water to slosh from the western Pacific to the east side, jump-starting an event. This is known as a Kelvin Wave, and it happened this past spring, but it has not happened since.

“There is some potential over the next few weeks that we could have at least a weak westerly wind burst,” Baxter added. Furthermore, even without another westerly wind burst, which could induce another Kelvin Wave, the atmosphere and ocean system "is still on track toward the development of El Niño,” he said.

Yet Baxter, as well as the IRI and Bureau of Meteorology all cautioned against thinking that the El Niño will be an intense one. Baxter, in a call with reporters on Thursday, said the Climate Prediction Center "hasn't been kind" to the view that there will be a strong El Niño.



El Niño watchers are keeping a close eye on the updates from the forecast centers. In order for the CPC to change their current El Niño "watch" to an "advisory," the ocean temperatures in part of the equatorial Pacific need to be at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average (or 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit above average), "along with consistent atmospheric factors."

In addition, these anomalies have to be predicted to persist for at least three straight months.

So far, those conditions have not been met. But you never know when the atmosphere and ocean will finally click, sparking an event.
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22351
Quoting 24. GatorWX:


Looks like the beginnings of another system in the EPAC.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Thank you for the updated blog post Dr. Masters.

"Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was been much lower than average during June, primarily due to dry, sinking air from aloft and outbreaks of dry air from Africa's Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Low instability reduces the potential for tropical storm formation. "

Seems the strong high pressure ridging in the Atlantic over the past few seasons is to blame. Seeing the same trends this season couple that with lower than avg. sst across the MDR, Caribbean, and GOM, it seems reasonable to predict a quiet season. 1997 keeps coming to mind for me with 2009 not too far behind, maybe an avg. of those 2 seasons.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
Heavy rain should be moving into the Miami area over the next couple hours.

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My thermo is at 98F (probably cause the sun is directly hitting it) Wunderground: 95F and TWC: 89 with "feels like" 102F!
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Quoting 24. GatorWX:


Something headed for Hawaii?.
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FSU thinks we'll get 5-9 storms.

I'd bet we get about 6 or 7.

Maybe 3.
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Have a good day all. I'll check in tonight after work. ATM, not much going on in either basin.

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Quoting 17. washingtonian115:

It could be upgraded but I'm not betting on it.I wanna know where the hell all this shear was when Heiyan was coming for the Philippines. THAT'S where we really needed it to come blasting the place with 70 knots.Of course it was M.I.A and as history would tell us the people in the Philippines had to suffer.

Honestly, it's one of those things we all remember at the beginning of the season, thinking "90L should've been classified" but by the end no one really remembers it, and essentially it's ignored by the NHC in the post-season analysis. But, it may not be the case this season though, as the NHC acknowledged the system had a high chance of development, 70%, but time was not on their side when it came to classification. I could definitely see this being classified in the post-season, unlike some of the other early season systems that we have thought to have needed to be classified.
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Tomorrow is the First Day of Summer, after tomorrow the daylight starts getting shorter again.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4750
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Quoting 20. washingtonian115:

You know what this reminds me of

Exactly.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4750
California drought.

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Thanks Doc. I have noticed that quiet June's in my experiences have led to active August's. That is my own opinion and from my perspective.


may i make a suggestion.......find out the average number of storms for august......then look at the years where we had no activity in june...and then reference if we were above average.....average...or below average for named storms in august....
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Quoting 11. WIBadgerWeather:

Thanks Dr. Masters.


You know what this reminds me of
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Quoting Climate175:
Thanks Doc. I have noticed that quiet June's in my experiences have led to active August's. That is my own opinion and from my perspective.

I wouldn't hold your breath for an active August this year.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32822
Quoting 5. VR46L:



I think it might, it had a nice spin , just needed a couple more hours and it would have definitely been one !
It could be upgraded but I'm not betting on it.I wanna know where the hell all this shear was when Heiyan was coming for the Philippines. THAT'S where we really needed it to come blasting the place with 70 knots.Of course it was M.I.A and as history would tell us the people in the Philippines had to suffer.
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If thunderstorms increase around the center then it could get interesting.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4750
Quoting 6. TylerStanfield:

Thanks Dr. Masters.


According to visible, it is an ill-defined circulation.
Though there is a low likely anything will be able to form due to increasing wind shear. The system is already getting torn apart and will be void of convection in a hour or so. It's just another example of how things can try to spin up in the tropics.

It's amazing how tropical cyclones can appear to be either sympathetic weaklings at the mercy of harsh atmospheric conditions or seemingly indestructible powerful monsters that devour anything in their path. It seems like we have had a lot of the former in recent years though, especially 2013.
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From previous blog...

The Flood Warning continues for the Rio Grande at del Rio. * Until Saturday morning...or until the warning is cancelled. * At 10:15 am Friday the stage was 10.2 feet (3.1 meters). * Flood stage is 4.0 feet (1.2 meters). * Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast. * Forecast...the river will continue rising to near 11.2 feet (3.4 meters) by this afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage this evening. * Impact...at 11.0 feet...(3.4 meters)...major flooding. Nearly all homes in The Vega Verde subdivision are now in the flow of the river and cut off.

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet): bf fld observed forecast 7am (ft) location stg stg stg day time Sat sun Mon Tue Wed del Rio 4 4 10.2 Fri 10 am 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters): bf fld observed forecast 7am (m) location stg stg stg day time Sat sun Mon Tue Wed del Rio 1 1 3.1 Fri 10 am 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Lat...Lon 2943 10112 2946 10102 2911 10063 2879 10048

1101 am CDT Fri Jun 20 2014

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a

* Flood Warning for the Pecos River at Pandale crossing. * Until late tonight...or until the warning is cancelled. * At 10:15 am Friday the stage was 4.7 feet (1.4 meters). * Flood stage is 7.0 feet (2.1 meters). * Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...rise above flood stage by late this morning and continue to rise to near 9.0 feet 2.7 meters by this afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage by late this afternoon. * Impact...at 10.0 feet...(3.0 meters)...moderate flooding is well into the flood plain making secondary roads and crossings along the Pecos River and tributaries very dangerous to travel. Swimmers and tubers should leave the river as flow is dangerously turbulent. Campers vehicles and gear in the flood plain can be swept downstream. * Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 9.0 feet on Nov 17 2004.

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Thanks Doc. I have noticed that quiet June's in my experiences have led to active August's. That is my own opinion and from my perspective.
Member Since: September 24, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4750
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Member Since: April 28, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 416
Thanks Dr. Masters, so far so good with the predictions of a very slow season, but a long way to go yet.
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alrighty....my chances for zero hurricanes in a season is just about a month over and looking good for june.....nahh...it won't happen.....hasn't happened since modern technology has been in effect.....but just as each year i look for the cal bears to be in the rose bowl...so too do i look for a no cane season
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Thanks Doc.
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Quoting 953. CitikatzSouthFL:



I say this every season to all of the "downcasters", "bust season casters", etc.....ALL IT TAKES IS ONE hit somewhere no matter how many storms form or don't form. All we can do is watch, wait and pray that any storm that might form does not hit any populated land mass. The fun of the season is using whatever meteorlogical info you have learned and your "gut instinct" to logically "guess" what might happen. The horror is when (if) one hits, the size of the storm and how much damage is done, and whether or not lives are lost. I know it is hard to wait for the first one to form, but we have to do that with cheerful anticipation of what might occur. I am just as eager to see what this season might hold but also praying for no hits, damages, injuries or lives lost anywhere.

Betsy 1965 is a perfect example. Substantial El Nino year with only 6 storms. Besides an unnamed June tropical storm (not sure what the story is on that), didn't get Anna till LATE August.

A Betsy or Andrew type storm is what I'm looking out for. These types of years don't seem to throw out much June-July; that's why I'm not really holding my breath till August.
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Thanks Dr. Masters.

Quoting 1. taco2me61:

That's more of the Mid Level cirulation and not at the surface that is off the Florida's Coast.

Thanks For the Update Dr Masters

Taco :o)


According to visible, it is an ill-defined circulation.

Though there is a low likelihood anything will be able to form due to increasing wind shear. The system is already getting torn apart and will be void of convection in a hour or so. It's just another example of how things can try to spin up in the tropics.
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Quoting 2. washingtonian115:

Thanks Doc.Looks like the 8 year streak will come to a end for early season storm development.Unless 90L is classified as a T.D in post analysis which I highly doubt.


I think it might, it had a nice spin , just needed a couple more hours and it would have definitely been one !
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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