Hurricane Cristina Hits Cat 4; Little Change to Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclone Nanauk

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on June 12, 2014

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Hurricane Cristina walled off the dry air surrounding it and put on an impressive round of rapid intensification overnight, topping out as powerful Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds and a central pressure estimated at 935 mb at 11 am EDT Thursday. Cristina is the second hurricane this year to reach major hurricane strength in the Eastern Pacific, setting a record for the earliest date of formation for the season's second major hurricane. The previous record was a full thirteen days later in the season: June 25, 2010, when Hurricane Darby reached Category 3 strength. The other major hurricane this year in the Eastern Pacific was Hurricane Amanda, which peaked as a top-end Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds at 15 UTC (10 am EST) May 25, becoming the strongest May hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. This year is also the first time there have been two Category 4 hurricanes before July 1 in the Eastern Pacific. Prior to Cristina, the earliest second Category 4 hurricane was Hurricane Elida in 1984, which reached that threshold on July 1. Reliable records for the basin go back to 1966.


Figure 1. Cristina near peak strength at 12:16 pm EDT June 12, 2014.

The usual formation date for the second hurricane of the Eastern Pacific season is July 14, so we are over a month ahead of usual for hurricanes in 2014. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, so we've already had half the usual number of major hurricanes for an entire season, with the typical August 24 peak of the season nearly two and a half months away. This year is shaping up to be an El Niño year, and El Niño conditions typically increase the sea surface temperatures and decrease the vertical wind shear over the tropical Eastern Pacific, favoring the development of more and stronger tropical cyclones.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from the Aqua satellite of Hurricane Cristina at 21 UTC Wednesday, June 11, 2014. At the time, Cristina was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Satellite loops show that Cristina has an impressive eye surrounded by an eyewall with very cold cloud tops. The eyewall is thinner on the northwest side of the eye, suggesting that wind shear of about 5 - 10 knots due to upper level winds out of the northwest is affecting the storm. There is still time for Cristina to potentially intensify into a Category 5 storm today, but increasing wind shear combined with decreasing sea surface temperatures will begin to weaken the storm on Friday and into the weekend. Cristina is headed away from Mexico, and no watches or warnings will be required.

Little change to Arabian Sea's Tropical Cyclone Nanauk
Tropical Cyclone Nanauk continues steaming westwards across the Arabian Sea at 11 mph towards Oman. Nanauk is over some of the warmest ocean waters on the planet, 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F), but has changed little in strength over the past two days, due to high wind shear of 25 - 30 knots, which is disrupting the circulation. Nanauk is expected to continue moving west-northwest towards Oman Thursday, but both the European and GFS models now predict that Nanauk will dissipate in the next two days. High wind shear associated with the advancing Southwest Monsoon is predicted to increase over Nanauk, allowing very dry air over the Middle East to penetrate deep into the storm's core and disrupt it. This would be very good news for Oman, which has suffered a number of deadly and costly tropical cyclone landfalls since 2002.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image from the Aqua satellite of Tropical Cyclone Nanauk (65 mph sustained winds) over the Arabian Sea taken at approximately 6:30 am EDT June 12, 2014. The coast of Oman can be seen at the left side of the image. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical cyclones rare in Oman
Tropical cyclones are quite rare in Oman, but have hit the nation unusually often in the past few years. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks database, only five have hit Oman at tropical storm strength or higher since accurate satellite data began in 1990, with three of those landfalls occurring since 2007:

Nov. 2, 2011: 40 mph tropical storm, Keila (14 killed)
June 4, 2010: 75 mph Category 1 hurricane, Tropical Cyclone Phet (24 killed)
June 6, 2007: 75 mph Category 1 hurricane, Tropical Cyclone Gonu (50 killed)
May 10, 2002: 40 mph tropical storm, the 2002 Oman cyclone (9 killed)
October 3, 1992: 45 mph tropical storm

Earlier historical landfall records indicated that the deadliest cyclone to affect Oman was a Category 1 storm that hit on June 13, 1977, killing 105 people.

Tropical Cyclones Gonu of 2007: Oman's Costliest Natural Disaster
The most expensive natural disaster in Oman's history was Tropical Cyclone Gonu, which hit the eastern tip of Oman as a Category 1 storm on June 6, 2007. Gonu is the first Category 4 or higher storm recorded in the Arabian Sea since the satellite era began in 1970. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated Gonu's peak sustained winds at 165 mph, the strongest winds of any tropical cyclone they have ever rated in the northern Indian Ocean (second place: the 160 mph winds of the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone that killed 138,000 people.) Fortunately, dry air and wind shear knocked Gonu down to Category 1 strength before landfall, but the storm still killed 50 people and did $4.2 billion in damage (2007 USD) in Oman, with flash flooding causing most of the deaths and destruction. Gonu dropped heavy rainfall of up to 610 mm (24 inches) on Oman's east coast, which is six times higher than the annual rainfall in Oman of 100 mm (about 4".) In Iran, the cyclone caused 28 deaths and $216 million in damage (2007 USD).


Video 1. The Story About Cyclone Gonu video shows remarkable footage of why so many people died in Oman: they went out into the flood waters in their cars.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the coming five days. The GFS model continues to predict that about 6 - 9 days from now the upper level winds over the Western Caribbean will relax and low-level moisture will build, potentially allowing a tropical disturbance with heavy rains to develop there. However, the European model keeps the wind shear high over the Western Caribbean early next week, so any development in the region remains in doubt.

Jeff Masters

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481. washingtonian115
5:16 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
It's raining so hard outside!.It looks kinda like snow.Gusty rain too.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17487
480. bappit
5:15 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting ricderr:
All earth is doing is displaying the GFS data in a different format.


exactly...but the data is not from long run prediction points not even 5 day prediction points...it's taking for what i can only say as a "nowcast" approach.......so i don't understand what is "laughable' about that

You and nrt are in violent agreement.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6100
479. LargoFl
4:05 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
had a pretty strong storm here awhile ago..headed east folks.......watch the Lightning.............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41002
478. ricderr
3:54 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
All earth is doing is displaying the GFS data in a different format.


exactly...but the data is not from long run prediction points not even 5 day prediction points...it's taking for what i can only say as a "nowcast" approach.......so i don't understand what is "laughable' about that
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22050
477. Patrap
3:53 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
,,,Nuttin'



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
476. georgevandenberghe
3:52 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 471. ricderr:

For some bizzare and no doubt inexcusable reason the 384 hour forecast initialized Sunday morning May 26, failed to capture the
15x10 km area of heavy convection that flooded me out Tuesday June 10. A gross miss no??




NOOOOOOOOO...for the love of all things holy......not another mistake to ruin the past reputation of perfection long range models have achieved.....the long range model program must have been tampered with.....this is a ploy of left wing global warming alarmists...those horrific people will do anything to further their unfounded claims of global warming.....including damaging government property in the programming of these models


It's even worse than you say. The conspiracy is global since the GEM and Euro missed it too. And so the multiple choice question of why

AGW alarmists.
AGW deniers
All O's fault
All Bush's fault.
Tea party
It's the BIlderberg conference participants.

Or maybe None of the above??


Again, this is sarcasm people!!
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 1941
475. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:50 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
474. nrtiwlnvragn
3:45 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 442. ricderr:

here nrt...maybe this will help you

Real-time global wind map
Programmers! See this web page with the source etc.
Update January 2014: New overlays with temperature, pressure, cloud, and rain were added!


I just saw an amazing tweet by Pakistani string theorist Amer Iqbal (whom I know from Harvard) and you have to see it:
Real-time global wind map (earth.nullschool.net)
It's beautiful, fast, and hopefully accurate.




Using the usual gestures (dragging with the left mouse button, mouse wheel etc.), you may rotate the globe, zoom it in/out, and/or focus on the region you are interested in. The wind flows are visualized by animated flying green jets, sort of.

It may take a few seconds for the wind data to load and for the green animation to begin.




When I was posting this blog post for the first time, I still hadn't verified the credibility of the data and who is behind the impressive project.

Update: I have compared the graphical wind data with Weather Underground and the degree of agreement leads me to believe that the data are legit.

The information about the application and the source of its data may be accessed by clicking at the "earth" label in the lower left corner. The author (Cameron Beccario, software engineer focusing on .NET in Japan) seems to be a citizen scientist if we use this term and the data are from NCEP / US National Weather Service / NOAA.

The "earth" button also offers some options – changing the height (parameterized by pressure: e.g. the high-altitude 10 hPa pressure winds are more uniform, stronger, and red, purple, or even white if too strong), projection of the terrestrial sphere, changing the reference time (yesterday, forecast for tomorrow), UTC vs local time, visualizing your current location (permission may be needed; a "cross" closes the local info), and more. Left-clicking a place (with no dragging) gives you some local information about the place. If you click at "earth" again, the menus disappear.

The author kindly told me that he applies a simple bilinear interpolation to fill the gaps in the NCEP data – it surely looks good to me. He is unusually modest which is the reason why you probably haven't heard about the widget earlier.

Just by looking at the animations, one can learn some things. For example, the winds over oceans are generally much stronger than those over the land, indeed. The vortices simply love to appear at various spots. It would be interesting to see how much the wind field follows from the pressure field (a potential: the vortices imply non-potentiality), and other things



Weather data is produced by the Global Forecast System (GFS), operated by the US National Weather Service. Forecasts are produced four times daily and made available for download from NOMADS

Link

All earth is doing is displaying the GFS data in a different format.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
473. Camille33
3:44 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 469. hurricanes2018:



good video
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1523
472. weathermanwannabe
3:39 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Just noting the current very large SAL plume in the Central Atlantic.  Some of that will be drawn into the Caribbean over next few days as well with the SE flow into the Caribbean pursuant to one of the current SAL modelling runs (University of Athens) that brings some of that Plume into the Western Caribbean in the coming week.  Very dry air in the Caribbean and high shear is not very conductive for TS formation at the moment:



Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9330
471. ricderr
3:39 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
For some bizzare and no doubt inexcusable reason the 384 hour forecast initialized Sunday morning May 26, failed to capture the
15x10 km area of heavy convection that flooded me out Tuesday June 10. A gross miss no??




NOOOOOOOOO...for the love of all things holy......not another mistake to ruin the past reputation of perfection long range models have achieved.....the long range model program must have been tampered with.....this is a ploy of left wing global warming alarmists...those horrific people will do anything to further their unfounded claims of global warming.....including damaging government property in the programming of these models
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22050
470. hurricanes2018
3:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...CRISTINA A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 109.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. CRISTINA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 50 Comments: 82382
469. hurricanes2018
3:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 50 Comments: 82382
468. georgevandenberghe
3:33 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
O6Z GFS shows a TC making landfall in the upper SE U.S and perhaps flooding the DC area only 12-14 days out. So I guess I should start panicing??


For some bizzare and no doubt inexcusable reason the 384 hour forecast initialized Sunday morning May 26, failed to capture the
15x10 km area of heavy convection that flooded me out Tuesday June 10. A gross miss no??


Please note I am being sarcastic.

Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 1941
467. Patrap
3:33 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Fully automatic, comes in any size
Makes me wonder what I did, before we synchronized



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
466. 7544
3:21 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 448. wunderkidcayman:


I hear ya
I have to head out hopefully I'll be back in about an hour or 2

Most forecast is based on the GFS but they normally don't go farther than day 5- day 7


as we all know the gfs did show for many runs that a system was suppose to effecft fl this weekend thats not happening now the one for next week should start to form on the 18 maybe it will be the lucky run one this time we"ll see .but its fun to watch anyway .
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
465. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:18 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 10:18 AM EDT on June 13, 2014
...A significant weather advisory has been issued for northern Pinellas and northwestern Hillsborough counties for a strong thunderstorm with strong wind gusts valid until 1115 am EDT...

At 1018 am EDT...National Weather Service meteorologists detected a strong thunderstorm located near Clearwater Beach...or 7 miles southwest of Dunedin...moving east at 25 mph will affect Honeymoon Island...Belleair Beach...Indian Rocks Beach and Clearwater Beach.

Gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph can be expected which can cause unsecured objects to blow around...snap tree limbs and cause power outages. Frequent to continuous lightning is expected. To be safe go indoors immediately. If caught outside...find a low spot...and stay away from tall objects. Torrential rains will reduce visibility to near zero and will cause ponding of water on roadways.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8682
464. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:14 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Meditation calms the nerves and strengthens the mind. I've heard acupuncture is really good too.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8682
463. ncstorm
3:12 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 455. CybrTeddy:



I don't know about that, the posts in 2006 weren't exactly a beacon of brilliance either most of the time during the active parts of hurricane season. I can honestly say since 2010 I've learned way more about TC genesis than I did from when I joined. You've just got to sort out the nonsense.




I beg to differ..I rather deal with the blog of yester year than this pettiness I've seen of lately..I have been hanging in the cut rather than commenting..its like a reincarnation of Romper Room..

back in those years, the adults would complain about the kids who posted during hurricane season..it now has changed where the kids act more mature than the adults on here..

Later..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16042
462. ricderr
3:09 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
When one lets a weather blog influence ones Karma, maybe seek out a new outlet foe ones frustration.



ahh grasshopper....may words of wisdom flow as a flooding river

Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22050
461. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:08 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Going to be active across Central FL. today.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8682
459. REELHOUSE
3:07 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Seems like our coastal SC weather has been really strange for the past week or so.... Storms coming from west to east, instead of our usual rounds of coastal afternoon and evening storms. We had a line move west-east at 4:30 am the other morning and we never even heard it! I guess my brain isn't in tune with the pattern.
Member Since: February 18, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
458. Patrap
3:06 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
When one lets a weather blog influence ones Karma, maybe seek out a new outlet foe ones frustration.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
457. Ameister12
3:04 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Yesterday's Day 3 Outlook


Current Day 2 Outlook


Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5075
456. ricderr
3:04 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
just one more st about wind.earthschool.net......they use it as a training topic at skywarn classes

Date: Wednesday, January, 8th.
Net Control Station: Tom, N1KTA
Training Topic: The Polar Vortex & Earth.nullschool.net Wind Map.
Topic Resources: From NBC News Polar Vortex, What is It... and from Climate Progress Everything you wanted to know about the Polar Vortex. Also discussed was the Wind Map from earth.nullschool.net. Some instructions: Left click & drag to rotate the globe; right click to find information at the mouse pointer; wheel, if you have one, to zoom in & out; click on "earth", lower left for more parameters; while in the parameters section click on "about" for a little more information about the site. Warning, can be mesmerizing!
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22050
455. CybrTeddy
3:03 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting ncstorm:
Reading the comments just affirms that WU is not what is used to be or drew me here in the first place..every day its the same arguments with the same people..

hopefully something will change..for the better..

Member since 2006..


I don't know about that, the posts in 2006 weren't exactly a beacon of brilliance either most of the time during the active parts of hurricane season. I can honestly say since 2010 I've learned way more about TC genesis than I did from when I joined. You've just got to sort out the nonsense.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24488
454. Patrap
3:03 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Areal Flood Advisory
Statement as of 8:22 AM CDT on June 13, 2014
The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for minor flooding of poor drainage areas in... Orleans Parish in southeast Louisiana... this includes the cities of...New Orleans...east New Orleans... St. Bernard Parish in southeast Louisiana... this includes the city of Chalmette... St. Tammany Parish in southeast Louisiana... this includes the cities of...Slidell...Eden Isle... Hancock County in southern Mississippi... this includes the city of Waveland...

* until 1015 am CDT

* at 818 am CDT...a line of strong thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall will continue to produce rainfall rates around 2 inches per hour...and areas in the advisory area could receive up to 3 inches of rain in less than 2 hours. This will likely result in flooding of portions of U.S. Highway 90 from New Orleans to Pearlington...and other city streets and roads around Slidell...stennis space center...New Orleans...and Chalmette.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Move to higher ground.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated or ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
453. Sfloridacat5
3:02 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8248
452. washingtonian115
2:58 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 416. georgevandenberghe:



Overdevelopment in the early season in the GOM and Caribbean is a well known GFS bias. No model handles genesis five days and further out at all well. Some models do SOMETIMES (and ensembles help tell us when) handle the low wavenumber features (where the big troughs and ridges are) with skill out to ten days and this enables them to forecast the steering and (less effectively) intensity changes of systems that come off the African Coast, out to beyond ten days.

But if you have a reasonably busy life and a system is not already developed and in a well defined steering flow and is more than five days out, you are wasting your time to try to discern what might happen with a model generated system or a model generated region of good potential.

I'm old enough to remember when model forecasts were no good past day 3 and people slightly older than I remember the days of no models at all.
I still remember what looked like cut and paste weather maps compared to nowadays being shown on the local news in the 70's.lol.These kids have it good.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17487
451. Grothar
2:58 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Early storm chaser


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26897
450. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:58 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 444. ncstorm:

Reading the comments just affirms that WU is not what is used to be or drew me here in the first place..every day its the same arguments with the same people..

hopefully something will change..for the better..

Member since 2006..
We just need a nice storm to track, to get people away from arguing with one another. Of course that will bring out the trolls, but I'd rather put up with the nonsense from trolls then bloggers who blog here on a normal basis arguing with each other. And by now people should know how other people behave and either 1) accept it or 2) ignore them. It's really that simple.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8682
449. FOREX
2:56 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
TWC just said no tropical development in the Atlantic or Caribbean THROUGH next week.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
448. wunderkidcayman
2:56 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 443. FOREX:

Looking forward to the 12Z GFS to see if it will have the Yucatan low within 5 days. Also anxious to see latest EURO run.

I hear ya
I have to head out hopefully I'll be back in about an hour or 2
Quoting 445. Sfloridacat5:

He's probably playing based off the GFS prediction.



Most forecast is based on the GFS but they normally don't go farther than day 5- day 7
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12549
447. Sfloridacat5
2:55 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Looks like Largo is about to get a pounding (also Scott in the Orlando area - haven't seen him lately).
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8248
446. Greg01
2:51 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 421. jrweatherman:


You have been flagging a whole bunch of folks on this blog this year.


More flags than a 4th of July parade ;-)
Member Since: July 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 153
445. Sfloridacat5
2:51 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
He's probably playing based off the GFS prediction.

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8248
444. ncstorm
2:49 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Reading the comments just affirms that WU is not what is used to be or drew me here in the first place..every day its the same arguments with the same people..

hopefully something will change..for the better..

Member since 2006..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16042
443. FOREX
2:49 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Looking forward to the 12Z GFS to see if it will have the Yucatan low within 5 days. Also anxious to see latest EURO run.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
442. ricderr
2:47 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
here nrt...maybe this will help you

Real-time global wind map
Programmers! See this web page with the source etc.
Update January 2014: New overlays with temperature, pressure, cloud, and rain were added!


I just saw an amazing tweet by Pakistani string theorist Amer Iqbal (whom I know from Harvard) and you have to see it:
Real-time global wind map (earth.nullschool.net)
It's beautiful, fast, and hopefully accurate.




Using the usual gestures (dragging with the left mouse button, mouse wheel etc.), you may rotate the globe, zoom it in/out, and/or focus on the region you are interested in. The wind flows are visualized by animated flying green jets, sort of.

It may take a few seconds for the wind data to load and for the green animation to begin.




When I was posting this blog post for the first time, I still hadn't verified the credibility of the data and who is behind the impressive project.

Update: I have compared the graphical wind data with Weather Underground and the degree of agreement leads me to believe that the data are legit.

The information about the application and the source of its data may be accessed by clicking at the "earth" label in the lower left corner. The author (Cameron Beccario, software engineer focusing on .NET in Japan) seems to be a citizen scientist if we use this term and the data are from NCEP / US National Weather Service / NOAA.

The "earth" button also offers some options – changing the height (parameterized by pressure: e.g. the high-altitude 10 hPa pressure winds are more uniform, stronger, and red, purple, or even white if too strong), projection of the terrestrial sphere, changing the reference time (yesterday, forecast for tomorrow), UTC vs local time, visualizing your current location (permission may be needed; a "cross" closes the local info), and more. Left-clicking a place (with no dragging) gives you some local information about the place. If you click at "earth" again, the menus disappear.

The author kindly told me that he applies a simple bilinear interpolation to fill the gaps in the NCEP data – it surely looks good to me. He is unusually modest which is the reason why you probably haven't heard about the widget earlier.

Just by looking at the animations, one can learn some things. For example, the winds over oceans are generally much stronger than those over the land, indeed. The vortices simply love to appear at various spots. It would be interesting to see how much the wind field follows from the pressure field (a potential: the vortices imply non-potentiality), and other things
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22050
440. Llamaluvr
2:47 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 415. wunderkidcayman:


Flagged
Seriously ???
Member Since: July 8, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 246
439. wunderkidcayman
2:47 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 434. nrtiwlnvragn:



So that website, and "predictions" from it are just as laughable.

More like model observation (00hrs) from GFS
Plus uses data from NCEP and US NWS
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12549
438. wunderkidcayman
2:43 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 432. Camille33:

Major Hurricane may impact parts of Florida next week. People should begin looking at preparations.

Say what now
Where you get that from is beyond me
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12549
437. ricderr
2:43 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
So that website, and "predictions" from it are just as laughable

do you really think so.......it's updated every three hours......i might suggest...you contact them....and ask them....at which hour point out....are they taking their data from....it might change your mind on this one
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22050
436. ricderr
2:40 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Flagged, you're it! :)

flagged



that's it..i need to find a playground monitor...i'm feeling picked on....LOL
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22050
435. yonzabam
2:40 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 432. Camille33:

Major Hurricane may impact parts of Florida next week. People should begin looking at preparations.


I know that's an attempt at humour, but you might find yourself banned for that kind of post.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2958
434. nrtiwlnvragn
2:40 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 431. ricderr:

You do realize that is derived from model data that you.... em..... question quite a bit?


earth
a visualization of global weather conditions
forecast by supercomputers
updated every three hours


i sure do....and i have no problems with models.....i post many models 5 days out every day...i don't have a problem with long range models either....it;s just that...i find them laughable.....horrendously inaccurate.....in fact...i believe so far this season...they are 0 for 9


So that website, and "predictions" from it are just as laughable.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
433. wunderkidcayman
2:38 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Quoting 429. yonzabam:



Hmm. Your 'first comment' and it's a computer prediction of rainfall in Florida in 11 days time. Come to think of it, I haven't seen LargoFl on here recently.

Geez the first person that comes to mind is LargoFl
Seriously
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12549
432. Camille33
2:37 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
Major Hurricane may impact parts of Florida next week. People should begin looking at preparations.
Member Since: July 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1523
431. ricderr
2:37 PM GMT on June 13, 2014
You do realize that is derived from model data that you.... em..... question quite a bit?


earth
a visualization of global weather conditions
forecast by supercomputers
updated every three hours


i sure do....and i have no problems with models.....i post many models 5 days out every day...i don't have a problem with long range models either....it;s just that...i find them laughable.....horrendously inaccurate.....in fact...i believe so far this season...they are 0 for 9
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22050

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.