Eastern Pacific's Cristina no Threat to Land; Arabian Sea's TC 2 a Threat to Oman

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on June 10, 2014

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The Eastern Pacific's third named storm of 2014 is here, as Tropical Storm Cristina spun into life late Monday night about 150 miles south of Mexico's Pacific coast. Satellite loops show that Cristina is still in the formative stages, but the combination of low wind shear and water temperatures that are a very warm 30°C (about 0.5°C above average) should allow Cristina to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane later this week. Cristina is headed away from Mexico, and it is unlikely that any watches or warnings will be required for this storm.

The formation of the Eastern Pacific's third storm of the season on June 10 comes nearly a month before the climatological average of July 5 for the usual appearance of the third storm. We've already had one hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year (Category 4 Amanda, the strongest May hurricane ever observed in the Eastern Pacific), and the usual formation date for the second hurricane of the season is July 14. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, is calling for an active season, with around 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4.5 major hurricanes. This year is shaping up to be an El Niño year, and El Niño conditions typically increase the sea surface temperatures and decrease the vertical wind shear over the tropical Eastern Pacific, favoring the development of more and stronger tropical cyclones.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Cristina off the Pacific coast of Mexico.

Tropical Cyclone Two a threat to Oman
The North Indian Ocean has some activity today in the form of Tropical Cyclone Two, a tropical storm with 45 mph winds that has formed in the Arabian Sea. Tropical Cyclone Two is expected to head west-northwest toward Oman and intensify into a Category 1 storm later this week, though the intensity forecast is a difficult one, due to moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and the presence of dry air. The North Indian Ocean has two tropical cyclone seasons--one in May and June before the Southwest Monsoon arrives, and one in October - November after the Monsoon has departed.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from the Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Two over the Arabian Sea taken at approximately 6:30 am EDT June 10, 2014. The storm appears to be pulling in a plume of dust or pollution from the north, flowing off the coast of India (some sunglint reflecting off the water is making it difficult to tell for sure.) The coast of Oman can be seen at the left side of the image. Image credit: NASA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the coming five days. Strong upper-level winds, associated with the subtropical jet stream, are bringing high levels of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, and these high winds are forecast to persist for at least the next six days. The GFS model continues to predict that about 7 - 10 days from now the upper level winds over the Western Caribbean will relax and low-level moisture will build, potentially allowing a tropical disturbance with heavy rains to develop there. However, the European model keeps the wind shear high over the Western Caribbean early next week, so any development in the region remains in doubt. Arguing against any development in the Atlantic is the anticipated strengthening next week in the West-Central Pacific Ocean of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. An active MJO in that part of the tropics tends to bring large-scale sinking motion to the tropical Atlantic and increased wind shear, which puts a damper on the chances of tropical storm formation in the Atlantic. The MJO is predicted to drift slowly eastwards into the Eastern Pacific by late June, which will tend to keep odds of tropical storm formation lower than average in the Atlantic into late June.

Jeff Masters

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426. transitzone
7:49 AM GMT on June 12, 2014
Quoting 420. drs2008:

on july 24th in18 years i will be visiting tampa. Does the GFS show anything ?

Partially light during the day, moderately dark at night
Member Since: March 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 62
425. CaneFreeCR
8:55 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 370. intampa:

and remember in the united states the republican controlled house of representatives has voted to not allow the military to have any funding at all for studying how global warming could be a national security threat.
Until the next terrorist attack, when the Republicans will all be attacking Obama and Clinton because they didn't protect the US enough.
Member Since: August 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 261
424. Jedkins01
8:16 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 421. Sfloridacat5:

2014 Tornado Season






Substantially below normal tornado numbers to date in Florida, but we really don't have a tornado season, so we have a lot of months left. Although the largest number of tornadoes occur in June through August in FL as well.

Oklahoma looks well below normal.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7680
423. MahFL
4:47 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 416. AussieStorm:

N Korea: Leader scolds 'inaccurate' weather forecasters



The lady is perhaps wondering if she'll be still alive to do tomorrows forecast ?
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3572
422. flsky
4:40 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
So the miners are in an uproar?
Quoting 402. Ed22:

Good morning everyone, the ULL over Florida bears watching these miner disturbances have a way ofdeveloping quickly into cyclone; could this one have a chance to" maybe."
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2036
421. Sfloridacat5
3:31 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
2014 Tornado Season



Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7539
420. drs2008
3:18 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 404. ricderr:

My birthday is July 24th and I'm planning on going deep sea fishing. Does the GFS show anything that I need to worry about?



why yes it does jr.......while i will only post a graph at 5 days out and the ten day runs are worthless.....there is a secret society that has access to the 40 day run that is always spot on.....sad news for your fishing day as exactly where you are fishing...will be dead in the eye of a cat 5 widowmaker
on july 24th in18 years i will be visiting tampa. Does the GFS show anything ?
Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 197
419. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:16 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
418. Gearsts
3:16 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 417. pottery:



Yeah, and a new cloud of dust leaving Africa.
Heaviest concentrations I've seen in a while.
WV analysis shows nothing but dry air everywhere over the Atl.

Look West, young man !

:):))
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1808
417. pottery
3:13 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting CaribBoy:
Heavy SAL as usual.... bored.



Yeah, and a new cloud of dust leaving Africa.
Heaviest concentrations I've seen in a while.
WV analysis shows nothing but dry air everywhere over the Atl.

Look West, young man !

:):))
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24452
416. AussieStorm
3:04 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
N Korea: Leader scolds 'inaccurate' weather forecasters

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
415. Ed22
3:03 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 408. jrweatherman:



While ULL can sometimes transitions into tropical systems, they usually take some time to do so and right now I don't believe there is any model support.
remember that I said maybe I didn't was going develop into anything major you know but I really believe that these miner disturbances take some time to transition into tropical cyclone, it needs fravourable environment to do so ok.
Member Since: June 13, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 118
414. cyclonekid
3:02 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
413. j3nnyb3an
2:57 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 396. georgevandenberghe:




After three years at FSU I found I missed four well defined season including solid no doubt about it winter. Even in DC I'd prefer a cooler climate, perhaps MSP or MSN (the latter with a top rated Met research institution) Severe weather is a strong minus for me though and these two places get more than DC


Not me. After 1 year at FSU, I decided never to go back to southern VA. My grad school program was only a year, I had no idea how I would be able to stay at the time. Now, here I am, one day from my 12 year anniversary of moving here. :)
Member Since: December 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 500
412. MahFL
2:56 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 401. Tazmanian:


Ask that agin. When the G F S is with in that time line


I think jr was being sarcastic, that's lost on a lot of people on the web....
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3572
411. wunderkidcayman
2:45 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
I can see Cristina making Cat 3 for a short period
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
410. Ed22
2:38 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Hurricane Cristina the second hurricane of the Eastern pacific hurricane season with hurricane forced wind of 75mph is strengthening rapidly. It could reach category two by this evening with hurricane forced of 100 mph or more, meanwhile the tropical Atlantic remains quiet or a next day.
Member Since: June 13, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 118
409. wunderkidcayman
2:31 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 405. CaribBoy:

Heavy SAL as usual.... bored.



Just be glad your not having one of those desert sand storms
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
408. jrweatherman
2:25 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 397. Ed22:

Good morning everyone, the ULL over Florida bears watching these miner disturbances have a developing quickly into cyclone; could this one have a chance to" maybe."


While ULL can sometimes transitions into tropical systems, they usually take some time to do so and right now I don't believe there is any model support.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
407. jrweatherman
2:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 404. ricderr:

My birthday is July 24th and I'm planning on going deep sea fishing. Does the GFS show anything that I need to worry about?



why yes it does jr.......while i will only post a graph at 5 days out and the ten day runs are worthless.....there is a secret society that has access to the 40 day run that is always spot on.....sad news for your fishing day as exactly where you are fishing...will be dead in the eye of a cat 5 widowmaker


Dang, I guess I'll have to go to the movies...
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
406. wunderkidcayman
2:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 374. SFLWeatherman:

Day 7


The fact that this has hinted on a wave or trof of lower pressures for days 6 and 7 since yesterday
Also if you look at this (the link below) and go out to Sun/Mon you can see where they have a low sitting just N of NE Honduran Coast
Link

GFS day 5 and 6





GFS forms the low late day 5 early day 6
But the whole W Carib area lowers pressure from late day 3 early day 4
Convection build up and the disturbance as a whole starts early day 4

So maybe maybe not
What I do know is that what ever forms whether it's a low, a storm, a tropical wave, or a trof of low pressure it's gonna get wet
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
405. CaribBoy
2:21 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Heavy SAL as usual.... bored.

Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6254
404. ricderr
2:16 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
My birthday is July 24th and I'm planning on going deep sea fishing. Does the GFS show anything that I need to worry about?



why yes it does jr.......while i will only post a graph at 5 days out and the ten day runs are worthless.....there is a secret society that has access to the 40 day run that is always spot on.....sad news for your fishing day as exactly where you are fishing...will be dead in the eye of a cat 5 widowmaker
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21761
403. BaltOCane
2:13 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
I'll be in Key West from Aug 21 thru 28th
Very excited.
Looking forward to never coming back to real life.
Member Since: May 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 484
402. Ed22
2:13 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Good morning everyone, the ULL over Florida bears watching these miner disturbances have a way ofdeveloping quickly into cyclone; could this one have a chance to" maybe."
Member Since: June 13, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 118
401. Tazmanian
2:12 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 399. jrweatherman:



My birthday is July 24th and I'm planning on going deep sea fishing. Does the GFS show anything that I need to worry about?

Ask that agin. When the G F S is with in that time line
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
400. Tazmanian
2:10 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 397. Ed22:

Good morning everyone, the ULL over Florida bears watching these miner disturbances have a developing quickly into cyclone; could this one have a chance to" maybe."


High wind shear in the gulf so the gulf is closed
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
399. jrweatherman
2:10 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 395. ricderr:

gfs....5 days out....all is quiet





My birthday is July 24th and I'm planning on going deep sea fishing. Does the GFS show anything that I need to worry about?
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
398. Patrap
2:05 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
To da wunderground folks invading NOLA this day thru the weekend, travel safe,

The Big Easy awaits.

Kori will be on a short leash.

: P

Royal Orleans

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
397. Ed22
2:05 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Good morning everyone, the ULL over Florida bears watching these miner disturbances have a developing quickly into cyclone; could this one have a chance to" maybe."
Member Since: June 13, 2013 Posts: 2 Comments: 118
396. georgevandenberghe
1:55 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
377 StormingInChicago 8:37 AM EDT on June 11, 2014

There are thousands of people over the years who came to Florida from the North for a vacation, college, or Spring Break and decided to stay. Back in the 70's and 80's in my younger days, when I was in the Florida Keys almost every month fishing or playing music in a band, I would say that about half of the younger bartenders that I met from Key Largo to Key West were from the North-Mid-West and came to the Keys or South Florida during Spring Break and came back for good......................Of course, there was much less people and development in those days; it's too crowed and overpriced these days in the Keys but still a great place to visit. Enjoy Your Stay in the Sunshine State.



After three years at FSU I found I missed four well defined season including solid no doubt about it winter. Even in DC I'd prefer a cooler climate, perhaps MSP or MSN (the latter with a top rated Met research institution) Severe weather is a strong minus for me though and these two places get more than DC
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 18 Comments: 1865
395. ricderr
1:47 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
gfs....5 days out....all is quiet


Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21761
394. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:46 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 373. weathermanwannabe:

TropicalAnalystwx13 7:46 AM EDT on June 11, 2014

Good Morning Everyone. Nice call yesterday afternoon TA13. You did a nice analysis and argument yesterday as to why you thought that Christina might intensify further than initially forecast. You turned out to be correct; the storm looks very healthy this morning, with a strong core, and it has fully mixed out any dry air for the moment:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03E/imagery/wv0-lalo.gif


Thanks for the compliment. We'll see if it manages to attain my peak intensity of 90kt. Right now, there's still some dry air impeding on more significant development (as evidenced by the microwave pass below), but that should change later today.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
393. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:36 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45731
392. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:34 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
CYCLONIC STORM NANAUK (ARB01-2014)
14:30 PM IST June 11 2014
===============================

At 9:00 AM UTC, The cyclonic storm NANAUK over east central Arabian Sea moved west northwestwards with a speed of 6 knots during past 6 hours and lay centered near 17.0N 66.5E, about 710 km west southwest of Mumbai, 590 km south southwest of Veraval and 900 km east southeast of Masirah Island (Oman).

It would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs. It would move west northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 120 hours.

According to satellite imagery the intensity of the system is T3.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian sea between 14.0N to 19.0N 60.0E to 69.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The state of the sea is high to very high around the cyclone. Central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 990 hpa.

The sea surface temperature over the region is about 30-32C. The ocean thermal energy is about 80-120 kj/cm2. The relative vorticity in lower levels along with the low level convergence and the upper level divergence remained the same during the past six hours the vertical wind shear in the horizontal wind over the region continues to be about 10-20 knots. The system would intensify due to favorable sea surface temperatures, low level vorticity and upper level divergence. The system would move west northwestwards under the influence of the subtropical upper tropospheric ridge near 25.0N in association with the anticyclonic circulation over Gulf of Iran and adjoining northwest Arabian sea.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
9 HRS 17.4N 66.0E - 50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS 17.9N 65.2E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS 18.9N 63.3E - 65 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS 19.8N 61.4E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45731
391. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:34 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM MITAG (T1406)
21:00 PM JST June 11 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon West Of Minami Daito

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Mitag (994 hPa) located at 25.6N 130.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 20 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: N/A

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS 32.0N 141.6E - Extratropical Low southeast of Hachijo-shima
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45731
390. Patrap
1:31 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Get yer kicks on route 66'
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
388. hydrus
1:18 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 387. weathermanwannabe:


The good old days; with a hotel room or cottage for the weekend and 1/2 price drinks for the band from Sloppy Joe's or the Tiki Bar.  We also brought our fishing gear down and grilled the fish in the "late" afternoon.  As related to the weather, the Key Westers say their prayers, for no direct major hurricane strikes on Key West, every season if a hurricane threatens the Keys at the Grotto on the grounds of St. Mary Star of the Sea church.  Their prayers have been answered for the past several decades.

Yep. In the 70,s, there was a bar on the Middle Keys that was made of coral rock, windows with no glass, open practically 24 hours a day, and mobbed with people. Cannot remember the name..Some of the best times I ever had.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21489
387. weathermanwannabe
1:12 PM GMT on June 11, 2014

Quoting 386. hydrus:

We probably crossed paths many times..We had a blast ..Yes, absolutely different place back then.
The good old days; with a hotel room or cottage for the weekend and 1/2 price drinks for the band from Sloppy Joe's or the Tiki Bar.  We also brought our fishing gear down and grilled the fish in the "late" afternoon.  As related to the weather, the Key Westers say their prayers, for no direct major hurricane strikes on Key West, every season if a hurricane threatens the Keys at the Grotto on the grounds of St. Mary Star of the Sea church.  Their prayers have been answered for the past several decades.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9263
386. hydrus
12:59 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 381. weathermanwannabe:

377 StormingInChicago 8:37 AM EDT on June 11, 2014

There are thousands of people over the years who came to Florida from the North for a vacation, college, or Spring Break and decided to stay. Back in the 70's and 80's in my younger days, when I was in the Florida Keys almost every month fishing or playing music in a band, I would say that about half of the younger bartenders that I met from Key Largo to Key West were from the North-Mid-West and came to the Keys or South Florida during Spring Break and came back for good......................Of course, there was much less people and development in those days; it's too crowed and overpriced these days in the Keys but still a great place to visit. Enjoy Your Stay in the Sunshine State.

We probably crossed paths many times..We had a blast ..Yes, absolutely different place back then.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21489
385. weathermanwannabe
12:58 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
In fact, two of my old band mates, and we had a two year stretch playing the Tiki Bar in Islamorada every few months, ended up marrying (and still married with kids now) two of those "Northern" bartenders; one was from Chicago and the other one from Toronto......................... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9263
384. hydrus
12:56 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21489
383. hydrus
12:55 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21489
382. hydrus
12:53 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21489
381. weathermanwannabe
12:50 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
377 StormingInChicago 8:37 AM EDT on June 11, 2014

There are thousands of people over the years who came to Florida from the North for a vacation, college, or Spring Break and decided to stay.  Back in the 70's and 80's in my younger days, when I was in the Florida Keys almost every month fishing or playing music in a band, I would say that about half of the younger bartenders that I met from Key Largo to Key West were from the North-Mid-West and came to the Keys or South Florida during Spring Break and came back for good......................Of course, there was much less people and development in those days; it's too crowed and overpriced these days in the Keys but still a great place to visit.  Enjoy Your Stay in the Sunshine State.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9263
380. Naga5000
12:48 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Quoting 378. StormingInChicago:


And who's to say it doesn't get a surge of moisture from a series of systems within the next 10 years to replenish it. I guess I'm just a glass lake half full kind of gal. ;-)

Alyssa


"There is a 50 percent chance Lake Mead, a key source of water for millions of people in the southwestern United States, will be dry by 2021 if climate changes as expected and future water usage is not curtailed, according to a pair of researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego.

Without Lake Mead and neighboring Lake Powell, the Colorado River system has no buffer to sustain the population of the Southwest through an unusually dry year, or worse, a sustained drought. In such an event, water deliveries would become highly unstable and variable, said research marine physicist Tim Barnett and climate scientist David Pierce.

Barnett and Pierce concluded that human demand, natural forces like evaporation, and human-induced climate change are creating a net deficit of nearly 1 million acre-feet of water per year from the Colorado River system that includes Lake Mead and Lake Powell. This amount of water can supply roughly 8 million people. Their analysis of Federal Bureau of Reclamation records of past water demand and calculations of scheduled water allocations and climate conditions indicate that the system could run dry even if mitigation measures now being proposed are implemented.

The paper, "When will Lake Mead go dry?," has been accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed journal Water Resources Research, published by the American Geophysical Union, and is accessible via the AGU's website (see instructions below)." Link

The researchers who study these things are the ones to "say".
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3543
379. Sfloridacat5
12:42 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
California Current doing its thing to cool off the water down most of the Baja Penn.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7539
376. Sfloridacat5
12:36 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
HWRF


This is about as close to the coast as the storm gets as it fall apart.



If my ankle wasn't currently messed up I'd be catching a flight for the Mexican coast to catch some waves.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7539

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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