Quiet in the Atlantic; 94E in Eastern Pacific Not a Threat to Land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:26 PM GMT on June 09, 2014

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There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis are predicting development over the coming five days (as I discussed in a blog post in August 2013, there are three models that have reasonable skill making forecasts of the genesis of new Atlantic tropical cyclones up to four days in advance--the European, GFS, and UKMET models.) Strong upper-level winds, associated with the subtropical jet stream, are bringing high levels of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, and these high winds are forecast to persist for the remainder of the week. The GFS model predicts that about 8 - 11 days from now the upper level winds over the Western Caribbean will relax and low-level moisture will build, potentially allowing a tropical disturbance with heavy rains to develop there.


Figure 1. Wind shear forecast for 11 am EDT Saturday, June 14, 2014, made by the 06Z UTC June 9, 2014 run of the GFS model. The model predicts low shear less than 6 m/s (12 knots), the two lightest red colors, for the Eastern Pacific. However, in the Atlantic, strong upper level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream are predicted to bring high levels of wind shear in excess of 40 m/s (78 knots), yellow and orange colors, to the tropical Atlantic. Image is from our wundermap with the model layer turned on.

Eastern Pacific disturbance 94E no threat to land
In the Eastern Pacific, a tropical disturbance (94E) located about 150 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is moving west-northwest, parallel to the coast, at about 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 94E has developed a large area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops that are showing rotation, and 94E is close to tropical depression status. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave 94-E a 90% chance of developing into a depression or a named storm (Cristina) in the next five days. The bulk of 94E's heavy rains are expected to remain offshore of Mexico this week, and our most reliable track models, the GFS and European, show no threat to land this week.

Jeff Masters

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408. hydrus
12:48 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
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407. hydrus
12:44 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21852
406. hydrus
12:43 PM GMT on June 11, 2014
<
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405. FOREX
3:17 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
12Z GFS should be running in 13 minutes. It will be interesting if it sticks to timing of the Yucatan low forming again this run.
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404. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:16 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
403. FOREX
3:15 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 402. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm
12Z Sfc map show tropical wave that's in the Caribbean has moved NW in the SW Caribbean


Where, near Panama?
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402. wunderkidcayman
3:12 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Hmm
12Z Sfc map show tropical wave that's in the Caribbean has moved NW in the SW Caribbean
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401. Patrap
3:10 PM GMT on June 10, 2014


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400. LAbonbon
3:08 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 356. GeoffreyWPB:

In 1933, Richard Gray, a U.S. government weather forecaster, noted that Florida had been hit by at least 37 hurricanes over the 45 years ending in 1930. During this period, the longest stretch with no tropical storms was only two years.

When the 2014 hurricane season officially began on June 1, the Sunshine State had gone more than eight years without being struck by a hurricane. It was back on Oct. 24, 2005, when Hurricane Wilma emerged from the Gulf of Mexico and caused billions of dollars in damage in South Florida. In fact, Wilma was the last Category 3 or stronger storm to hit the USA.




The article is interesting. Particularly the statement "Today, by contrast, there is strong downward pressure on rates as a shortage of damaging hurricanes has contributed to a glut of capital available to backstop hurricane risk." Part of this was linked to another blog where the cost of reinsurance was expected to drop, and profits to investors to increase. I suppose it's wishful thinking to hope any of this would be passed to homeowners with lower rates...
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399. wunderkidcayman
3:08 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 397. FOREX:



Can't see images, what is it showing??

Nor can I
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398. wunderkidcayman
3:07 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 394. FOREX:



I noticed that also WKC. Only thing is it wants to go to NOLA, and I want it in Panama City Beach.

Key tip forget about where it would end up for now wait till we have something that has formed then we can start to dwell on where it might end up

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397. FOREX
3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 395. SFLWeatherman:

Caribbean at 186HR on the GFS and ECMWF





Can't see images, what is it showing??
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396. 69Viking
3:02 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 393. opal92nwf:

Glad to see an active convection pattern here. This is already drastically different from our last El NIno year in 2009. Back then, I remember going almost the whole month of June without any rain!

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
951 am EDT Tue Jun 10 2014

Prev discussion [640 am edt]...

Short term [tonight through thursday]...
moisture will increase rapidly tonight with qg forcing for ascent
increasing ahead of an approaching upper level shortwave.
Pops
continue in the likely range for much of the forecast area on
Wednesday with convection moving into the western area late
tonight into Wednesday morning prior to sunrise, then spreading
across the remainder of the area during the day. Some of the cam
guidance is starting to hint at locally heavy rainfall across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, generally from Bay County north
and westward (the usual suspects it seems).
Amounts still do not
look excessive at this time, although it wouldn't be surprising to
see isolated locations in this area pick up a few inches. Most of
the area is expected to pick up around three quarters of an inch
to an inch. The increased cloud cover and convective coverage are
expected to keep high temperatures generally in the mid to upper
80s across the area. The upper shortwave is expected to be over
the forecast area on Thursday with the best chance of convection
across the eastern half. Highs will be just a few degrees warmer
on Thursday than Wednesday.



Long term [thursday night through tuesday]...
a surface ridge will remain south of the area through the period
with generally southwest flow at the lower levels. An upper low
will cut off over the mid Mississippi or Tennessee Valley over the
weekend before opening up and lifting northeastward. This feature
will enhance pops over the forecast area on Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures will be near normal through the period.

Yeah we haven't had a shortage of rain lately that's for sure! I'm good with it just as long as this Summer isn't as wet as last year, we've already had an extremely wet Spring.
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395. SFLWeatherman
3:02 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Caribbean at 186HR on the GFS and ECMWF


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394. FOREX
2:50 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 387. wunderkidcayman:


It's certainly starting to stick to time
On 00Z it wasn't till 162hrs when it formed the low
So formation of the actual low (not the disturbance itself that starts earlier)
00Z 162hrs
06Z 144hrs
Ok if this trend continues then it may get interesting



I noticed that also WKC. Only thing is it wants to go to NOLA, and I want it in Panama City Beach.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
393. opal92nwf
2:47 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Glad to see an active convection pattern here. This is already drastically different from our last El NIno year in 2009. Back then, I remember going almost the whole month of June without any rain!

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
951 am EDT Tue Jun 10 2014

Prev discussion [640 am edt]...

Short term [tonight through thursday]...
moisture will increase rapidly tonight with qg forcing for ascent
increasing ahead of an approaching upper level shortwave.
Pops
continue in the likely range for much of the forecast area on
Wednesday with convection moving into the western area late
tonight into Wednesday morning prior to sunrise, then spreading
across the remainder of the area during the day. Some of the cam
guidance is starting to hint at locally heavy rainfall across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, generally from Bay County north
and westward (the usual suspects it seems).
Amounts still do not
look excessive at this time, although it wouldn't be surprising to
see isolated locations in this area pick up a few inches. Most of
the area is expected to pick up around three quarters of an inch
to an inch. The increased cloud cover and convective coverage are
expected to keep high temperatures generally in the mid to upper
80s across the area. The upper shortwave is expected to be over
the forecast area on Thursday with the best chance of convection
across the eastern half. Highs will be just a few degrees warmer
on Thursday than Wednesday.



Long term [thursday night through tuesday]...
a surface ridge will remain south of the area through the period
with generally southwest flow at the lower levels. An upper low
will cut off over the mid Mississippi or Tennessee Valley over the
weekend before opening up and lifting northeastward. This feature
will enhance pops over the forecast area on Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures will be near normal through the period.
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2795
392. AtHomeInTX
2:45 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting etxwx:


I'm happy to hear you finally got some rain even if it had to come as a brief deluge. Congrats to your daughter on the new job - I guess it will show "employee dedication" that she braved a flood to get there on her first day. :)
We picked up another 1.5 inches last night. It was rockin' and rollin' pretty good in the middle of the night and the vibrating storm dogs reached defcon 4.
It's looking nice here today in East Texas with temps only in the upper 80's. Hope everyone has a great day!


Thanks etx! We always seem to get our rain that way lately. All or nothing. Glad you got some more too. My dog was having a breakdown too and hid under the bed as usual. lol. Hope you have a great day too! :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
391. bwi
2:41 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Wow, had I not overslept, I would have been riding my bike right along the river. Think I'll work at home a bit longer...

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1019 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

MDC033-101630-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-140610T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PRINCE GEORGES MD-
1019 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM EDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY...

AT 1014 AM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING FROM
VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH MULTIPLE WATER RESCUES ON GOING. THIS IS A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WARNED AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BELTSVILLE...
BLADENSBURG...CHEVERLY...COLLEGE PARK...GREENBELT...HYATTSVILLE...
KETTERING...LANDOVER...LAUREL...MITCHELLVILLE...N EW CARROLLTON...SEAT
PLEASANT...BYRD STADIUM AND FEDEX FIELD.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. FLOODWATER USUALLY IS
DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. MAKE THE SMART CHOICE WHEN
FLOODED ROADS ARE ENCOUNTERED...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1391
390. nrtiwlnvragn
2:37 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
1028 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 SE UNIVERSITY PARK 38.96N 76.93W
06/10/2014 PRINCE GEORGES MD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

A WATER RESCUE WAS BEING PERFORMED ON AN OCCUPIED
VEHICLE STRANDED IN HIGH WATER AT THE INTERSECTION OF
EAST WEST HIGHWAY AND TAYLOR ROAD.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11276
389. TimSoCal
2:36 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 386. hydrus:


Just to piggyback on that...

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388. etxwx
2:35 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 353. AtHomeInTX:



Hey etx! Looked like it got rocky up your way again this morning. I'm glad you got that hay baled in time. :) We couldn't get a drop yesterday, again. Naturally, my daughter started her new job this morning and the bottom fell out! Got over an inch in about 20 minutes. She made it in ok. Said there was some flooding on the roads. It's past us now.


I'm happy to hear you finally got some rain even if it had to come as a brief deluge. Congrats to your daughter on the new job - I guess it will show "employee dedication" that she braved a flood to get there on her first day. :)
We picked up another 1.5 inches last night. It was rockin' and rollin' pretty good in the middle of the night and the vibrating storm dogs reached defcon 4.
It's looking nice here today in East Texas with temps only in the upper 80's. Hope everyone has a great day!
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387. wunderkidcayman
2:34 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 384. SFLWeatherman:

GFS 144HR



It's certainly starting to stick to time
On 00Z it wasn't till 162hrs when it formed the low
So formation of the actual low (not the disturbance itself that starts earlier)
00Z 162hrs
06Z 144hrs
Ok if this trend continues then it may get interesting
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12697
386. hydrus
2:30 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 382. ricderr:

anyone notice what octant the mjo is in next week????
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385. biff4ugo
2:20 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
The area of severe weather in the US seems small today. Is it the time of year or just my perception not being actually IN one of the severe weather zones? I don't know what to do. What season is it when there aren't any fires OR active Atlantic hurricanes?

Edit...on the East Coast.
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384. SFLWeatherman
2:16 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
GFS 144HR

Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4967
383. Luisport
2:11 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 380. Luisport:


TWC Space Weather @twcspacewx · 6 min

Back-to-back X-class solar flares over the last few hours. Not clear yet whether either will result in an Earth-directed CME.


A bright coronal mass ejection (CME) is now visible in the latest STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery following the X1.5 solar flare around sunspot 2087 at 12:52 UTC this morning. Should be directed mostly away from our planet, however more updates to follow once additional imagery becomes available.

Event log. http://www.solarham.net/data/events/jun10_2014_x1. 5/ https://www.facebook.com/SolarHam
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382. ricderr
2:04 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
anyone notice what octant the mjo is in next week????
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381. hydrus
1:58 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 378. wunderkidcayman:


Looks like any way GFS wants to put it, it's still gonna be a good amount of rain for us.
Yep. Still waiting on the Euro to come aboard. It shows the pressure being relatively low in the S.W.Caribbean, but nothing else...yet
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21852
380. Luisport
1:54 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 374. Luisport:

Two X Solar Flares today! http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html

TWC Space Weather @twcspacewx · 6 min

Back-to-back X-class solar flares over the last few hours. Not clear yet whether either will result in an Earth-directed CME.

Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
379. washingtonian115
1:51 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 376. ricderr:

Ouch :(

EDIT: I should have known -_-.Here is the CAPE for June 11th Link

Some of the highest is over D.C and we have a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.




don't you like how they make you look like a cyber thief.....you're probably now on their most wanted list :-)
Now I'm going to have to change my name and everything!.lol.
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378. wunderkidcayman
1:45 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 375. hydrus:



Looks like any way GFS wants to put it, it's still gonna be a good amount of rain for us.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12697
377. weathermanwannabe
1:42 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Here is the relative position of the Conus jet relative to the locations to that will have the bumpiest ride today as this front comes through:

http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_init_00.gif
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376. ricderr
1:41 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Ouch :(

EDIT: I should have known -_-.Here is the CAPE for June 11th Link

Some of the highest is over D.C and we have a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.




don't you like how they make you look like a cyber thief.....you're probably now on their most wanted list :-)
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 675 Comments: 22082
375. hydrus
1:40 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21852
374. Luisport
1:35 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Two X Solar Flares today! http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
373. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:34 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTER
5:00 PM PhST June 10 2014
================================================= ======

Tropical Depression "ESTER" has maintained its strength as it slightly accelerated moving northeastward.

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Ester [1000 hPa] located at 22.3N 122.7E or 200 km north northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
----------------
Batanes Group of Islands.

Additional Information
===================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5–15 mm/hr within the 250 km diameter of the depression.

"ESTER" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring moderate to heavy rains over Ilocos Region, Zambales, and Bataan.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
372. washingtonian115
1:31 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Ouch :(

EDIT: I should have known -_-.Here is the CAPE for June 11th Link

Some of the highest is over D.C and we have a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17491
371. hydrus
1:26 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21852
370. GTstormChaserCaleb
1:26 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
02A in the Arabian Sea looks good. Intense Convection appearing in the Rainbow Satellite Image,



DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20140610 0830 15.9 -68.4 T2.5/2.5 02A NONAME

TXIO24 KNES 100844
TCSNIO

A. 02A (NONAME)

B. 10/0830Z

C. 15.9N

D. 68.4E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...LLC REMAINS WELL DEFINED AND CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS REMAINED
PERSISTENT ALONG THE INNER BAND OF THE LLC. SHEAR METHOD WOULD YIELD
UNREALISTIC DT OF 3.5 FOR EMBEDDED IN CONVECTION AND THOUGH BANDING IS
NOT VERY EVIDENT... .4 CAN BE MEASURED TO YIELD MORE REALISTIC DT OF
2.5. MET IS RAPID TREND FOR 2.5. PT IS 2.5 AS WELL. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

10/0310Z 15.6N 68.6E SSMIS
10/0524Z 15.8N 68.8E AMSU


...GALLINA

Storm info.
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369. Patrap
1:23 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
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368. Tazmanian
1:16 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
EP, 03, 2014061012, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1026W, 40, 1003, TS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
367. biff4ugo
1:16 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
The ridge and wind setup does seem to be giving Florida a break this year. We actually had rain during the winter, when it doesn't all evaporate.
Our dry May wasn't horribly so, and summer showers seem to be kicking in "on time" this year.
If high level winds can shred and slaw some tropical systems headed our way, so we get the rain but not the wind, our lakes may reach "normal" level by the fall. My wishcasting.
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366. biff4ugo
1:07 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Doh!
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364. yonzabam
1:05 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 361. weathermanwannabe:

356.GeoffreyWPB 8:31 AM EDT on June 10, 2014

The US and parts of the Caribbean have been "very" lucky the past several years/seasons as noted.  We also used to often get strong higher end Cape Verde storms, that intensified in the Central Atlantic, plowing through the Lesser Antilles on a pretty regular basis every few years.  If you will note the past several years either the steering patterns have sent these storms into the Central Atlantic (fish storms) or the ones that have reached the Antilles have been struggling tropical storms.  The lucky streak cannot go on forever but this break is most appreciated and insurance companies have had a chance to recover and store some reserves all well.
 



There may be more to it than luck. The global climate is changing. The polar jet, for one thing, is behaving in an unprecedented manner. But, I wouldn't rule out another 2005.

Tornado activity in the US in recent years has also been strange, very severe to very calm. Could be the same with hurricanes.
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363. wunderkidcayman
1:03 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Quoting 318. KoritheMan:

I am encouraged by this persistent ridge over the United States east coast. Teleconnections would place the trough axis over the central plains, a configuration which is very conducive for Gulf Coast hurricanes.

Me want. Me want badly. Hopefully it persists, although climatologically, El Nino would tend to defy that.

Ridge also needs to be a shade stronger, but... eh. Compared to the pattern of troughing over that area for the winter, this is at least a step in the right direction.



Got me interested

Quoting 324. TylerStanfield:

I just wanted to touch on the topic of the GFS's forecast of a storm in the Northwestern Caribbean. I will go ahead and admit that this forecast is questionable at best. Though, I'm paying more attention to the idea that the GFS is showing that conditions will become more favorable for tropical cyclone development in the Western Atlantic over the next week or so. This is something I have attributed to the GFS for doing in the past. The GFS shows a storm developing in the same region with consistency, and strengthens it out past 240 hrs and sends it up into the Gulf coast. Debby of 2012 was one of these systems the GFS sniffed out 15 days ahead of time, though it wasn't accurate in strength or track, the system developed in that region and hit the gulf coast. This is why I believe, though the GFS forecast may not verify, that the forecast will give us some kind of idea of the next possibility that we will see tropical cyclone development in this region.

The run to run differences in track give you a clue that the GFS is very conflicted by the tropical cyclones steering due to the changing variables that are being used for each run. Though the tropical cyclone develops in the same region, it doesn't consistently bring the system into the coast in the same area on a multiple run basis, and when the track changes, it is a large difference. (This is evidence of the GFS pushing back the timeframe of development)


As I mentioned before, this similar forecast from the GFS happened with 2012's Debby. 15 days before the actual formation of Debby, the GFS began forecasting a system to form in the southern gulf of Mexico or NW Caribbean at about the 7-10 day range, and did something very similar to what it is doing now. It pushed back the timeframe, and continuously changed the track and strength of the storm on a run to run basis. Though it was consistent with development, it was not consistent with a storm of a certain track or strength.
This is a good reason to not necessarily expect the forecast of a storm in the Northwest Caribbean seven days from now to verify, but to not discount the forecast as completely false. I see a lot of worth in this forecast because it shows us more of what to keep our eyes on 10 to 15 days down the road.

Ok nice

Quoting 342. BahaHurican:

Tyler - re comment 324.... well said, and shows what I have been trying to get pple to see about the long-range GFS. The big deal is that we're likely to see something form in the area between Caymans and, say, Veracruz, because GFS has been consistently suggesting that conditions will become more conducive to formation in that area. Landfall scenarios can wait until we have something actually forming out there.



Yeah

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362. Patrap
1:03 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Insurance companies get a break?
really?

That is Humor I assume.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
361. weathermanwannabe
12:57 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
356.GeoffreyWPB 8:31 AM EDT on June 10, 2014

The US and parts of the Caribbean have been "very" lucky the past several years/seasons as noted.  We also used to often get strong higher end Cape Verde storms, that intensified in the Central Atlantic, plowing through the Lesser Antilles on a pretty regular basis every few years.  If you will note the past several years either the steering patterns have sent these storms into the Central Atlantic (fish storms) or the ones that have reached the Antilles have been struggling tropical storms.  The lucky streak cannot go on forever but this break is most appreciated and insurance companies have had a chance to recover and store some reserves all well.
 
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360. hydrus
12:55 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21852
359. hydrus
12:52 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21852
358. weathermanwannabe
12:49 PM GMT on June 10, 2014
Good Morning All.  Christina is barely a tropical storm at the moment at 35 knots but she should be able to intensify over the next few days as the convection consolidates over the center of the low; two separate convective areas at the moment.  The pressure needs to lower some more to be able to pull it all together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03E/imagery/wv0-lalo.gif
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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