90L in Gulf of Mexico Bringing Heavy Rains to Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:15 PM GMT on June 06, 2014

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Heavy rains continue to fall in Southeast Mexico due to a tropical disturbance in the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, Invest 90L. Satellite loops show that 90L has a well-defined surface circulation, but limited heavy thunderstorm activity. High wind shear of 30 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the west, is keeping all of 90L's heavy thunderstorms confined to the east side of the center. An ASCAT pass from last night showed 90L's strongest surface winds were near 35 mph, on the northeast side of the storm. Radar out of Alvarado, Mexico shows little in the way of well-organized low level spiral bands. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Southern Gulf of Mexico are about 28°, which is about 0.5° above average. These warm waters do not extend to great depth, and the total heat energy available to intensify a potential storm is rather low. The Hurricane Hunters have been given the order to investigate 90L on Friday afternoon at 3pm EDT.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 90L over the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecast for 90L
90L appears to be drifting slowly to the west, and both the GFS and European model predict this motion will continue Friday and Saturday, bringing the storm ashore along the Mexican coast near Veracruz on Saturday. The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will stay high, 25 - 35 knots, over the Bay of Campeche through Sunday. None of the reliable genesis forecast models predict that 90L will develop into a tropical storm over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 50%. If 90L does develop, the strongest it would likely get is 45 mph sustained winds. The big threat from 90L is heavy rains, which will continue over Southeast Mexico into the weekend, causing flash flooding and dangerous mudslides.


Figure 2. Total precipitation recorded for the 24 hours ending at 8 am Thursday June 5, 2014. Rainfall amounts in the 24 hours ending at 8 am Thursday were as high as 8.78" (223 mm) at Palizada at the base of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Thus far, there are no reports of deaths or heavy damage in Mexico from 90L or Tropical Storm Boris. Image credit: Conagua.

I'll have a new post on Saturday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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787. Jedkins01
4:31 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting 574. AllStar17:



Don't forget about Jose.




Jose was arguably a meso low due to its extremely small size, length of life, and how it was generated. We had a weak low that formed in the east gulf a few years back in August from repeated convective rounds, it was a meso low, a small area of strong winds and a tight circulation, it was no different than "Jose".
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7277
786. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:36 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
785. ricderr
2:34 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
I always saw this as a moderate event.So much for that on par or stronger than 1997 el nino gig some were on early.


well...before we got into the spring barrier a moderate event was being predicted.....the models went wild during the start of spring and everyone started looking for a reason to validate the models and latched onto the kelvin wave...next thing you know the media started looking for people to support this and they found a few....funny though...none were really active in the enso field....and when these same writers questioned enso staff...they were told wait and see...that should have been enough for most reasonable people to say watch and wait...
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21391
784. washingtonian115
2:14 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
779. ricderr

I always saw this as a moderate event.So much for that on par or stronger than 1997 el nino gig some were on early.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
783. Sfloridacat5
2:09 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting WIBadgerWeather:


Southern Illinois and the CO/NM/TX/OK area seem to be under the greatest threat for tornadoes and hail today.


Yesterday was only a Slight Risk for severe weather across Colorado area, but they had a lot of severe thunderstorms.
I know Mike - Stormscapelive witnessed two separate tornadoes chasing in that area.
At one time there were about 7 active tornado warnings going.
There were more tornsdoes yesterday than the day they issued the moderate risk earlier in the week.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6079
782. nrtiwlnvragn
2:08 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Finally back





Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10875
781. washingtonian115
2:05 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Here is Sterling's take on Sunday night: "Showers are likely with possible t-storms. Rainfall will be locally heavy at times. The threat for severe weather seems low at this point but will have to be monitored closely.
Should storms be rooted within the boundary layer.....then isolated tornadoes would be possible."


Tomorrow is the Jazz festival up the street from me.I better be early and prepared to leave really quick.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
780. barbamz
2:04 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Numbers of victims are rising, unfortunately:

Afghanistan flash flood kills dozens in Baghlan province
7 June 2014 Last updated at 12:09 GMT
Flash flooding in the remote northern Afghan province of Baghlan has killed at least 73 people and forced thousands to abandon their homes, police say.
The flooding has been deadliest in the Guzargah-e-Nur district of the province 140km (87 miles) north of the provincial capital Puli Khumri.
Police say the dead include women and children. About 200 people are missing.
Some 2,000 homes have been destroyed and roads washed away in what a local official said was a "huge disaster".
Northern Afghanistan has been hit by a series of floods in recent weeks, which have affected tens of thousands of people.
Flooding and landslides happen annually during the spring-summer rainy season in the north of the country, where flimsy mud houses offering scant shelter against rising water levels and an volumes of mud. ...
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 51 Comments: 5636
779. ricderr
2:02 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
from the enso blog

However, right now, forecasters are not favoring a strong event (while not at all ruling it out) and believe a moderate event (ONI 1.0 - 1.5) is slightly more likely, sometime during the fall/winter. So what%u2019s going on?

First, the subsurface temperatures have tapered off a bit recently (Figure 1). While still substantially above normal, the average of the upper-ocean (300m to surface) temperatures in the tropical Pacific has decreased over the past two months. SSTs tend to lag this measurement, often by a few months and with lesser intensity.




The difference between 1997 and 2014 are also illustrated by the May cross-sections of temperature anomaly along the equator (Figure 2). If you%u2019re interested, you can check out the history of ocean temperature anomalies and compare other El Nio events, such as 2002/03 or 2009/10, at a new CPC site.



Another factor the forecasters are considering is the model guidance. Most climate models are predicting a weak-to-moderate event, with dynamical models slightly favoring a moderate event and statistical models favoring a weaker event. The ensemble mean of NCEP%u2019s Climate Forecast System, CFSv2 (Figure 3, black dashed line) has been fairly consistent in forecasting Nio3.4 anomalies in the range of 1.0-1.5C, but, as you can see from the individual model runs (blue, red, and gray lines), there is an envelope of possible values from 0C to slightly above 2.0C.



We%u2019re beginning to move beyond the %u201Cspring barrier%u201D (when models have a harder time accurately predicting future conditions) and will be watching the ENSO model forecasts closely going forward. Regardless, predicting the peak strength tends to be the most difficult part of ENSO forecasting
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21391
778. LargoFl
1:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Hazardous Weather Outlook

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
731 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-081245-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH -CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILT ON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MO NTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
731 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
CARROLTON...TO CLANTON...TO ALEXANDER CITY LINE THROUGH 9 AM.

A SMALL RISK EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG
AND WEST OF A REFORM...TO TUSCALOOSA...TO SELMA LINE. ALTHOUGH A
SEVERE STORM AS FAR EAST AS THE I-65 CORRIDOR CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 2 AND 8
PM. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36867
777. LargoFl
1:55 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36867
776. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:54 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting Gearsts:
GEM?

The GEM has a noticeable overbias, but the GFDL will take a sheared depression and make it a Category 4 monster.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31452
775. Tazmanian
1:53 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting pottery:
So, Invest 90L was at 70% yesterday, and down to nothing today ?
That makes very little sense to me, in terms of 'forecasting'.



May be you Sould read back then you you find out what took place with 90L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
774. WIBadgerWeather
1:50 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting 772. Gearsts:

GEM?


I am not sure. I know the GEM and the GFDL are not the most accurate, but I put it down just to show the possibility of something happening. From a storm development standpoint, I think the CMC could be considered least accurate.
Member Since: April 28, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
773. WIBadgerWeather
1:48 PM GMT on June 07, 2014


Southern Illinois and the CO/NM/TX/OK area seem to be under the greatest threat for tornadoes and hail today.
Member Since: April 28, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
772. Gearsts
1:47 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting 771. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Just a tip, the gfdl is the worst model out there for the tropics.
GEM?
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1427
771. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:41 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting WIBadgerWeather:
Now this is interesting.. the GFDL takes what will most likely be Cristina into the GOM with tropical storm force winds, similar to what we thought would happen to Boris. However, there is no recurve. We will have to watch over the next 5 days.


Just a tip, the gfdl is the worst model out there for the tropics.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31452
770. Tropicsweatherpr
1:40 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting 766. WIBadgerWeather:

Now this is interesting.. the GFDL takes what will most likely be Cristina into the GOM with tropical storm force winds, similar to what we thought would happen to Boris. However, there is no recurve. We will have to watch over the next 5 days.




That was for 93E/Boris. The new invest is 94E.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
769. Sfloridacat5
1:39 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting pottery:
So, Invest 90L was at 70% yesterday, and down to nothing today ?
That makes very little sense to me, in terms of 'forecasting'.


Yesterday the NHC believed the low would stay over open water and develop into at least a Tropical Depression, but the Low moved inland yesterday a head of schedule.

But that Low isn't really going anywhere fast and I wouldn't be suprised if it drifted back into the BOC and tried to get going again. But conditions are still not all that favorable for development in that region.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6079
768. WIBadgerWeather
1:38 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Whoa! Its like a Picasso face in the North Atlantic!

Member Since: April 28, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
767. hydrus
1:35 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting 762. pottery:



That's a lot !
I got 1.75'' overnight.
But it fell nice and gentle most of the night, very sweet !

Had to go to the city early this morning, and plenty standing water along the way near Aranguez, Morvant, etc.

Expecting some more during the day, then another dry week after Sunday.
Mornin Pott..I heard that the Mighty Calabash is showin some color..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20502
766. WIBadgerWeather
1:34 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Now this is interesting.. the GFDL takes what will most likely be Cristina into the GOM with tropical storm force winds, similar to what we thought would happen to Boris. However, there is no recurve. We will have to watch over the next 5 days.



Edit- This was 93E. Nothing was out yet for 94E.
Member Since: April 28, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 368
765. hydrus
1:33 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
The temp charts for the Pacific can be misleading at first glance, but when one looks at the temps off of N.W.South America, you can see waters are indeed warming along the coast.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20502
764. pottery
1:30 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
So, Invest 90L was at 70% yesterday, and down to nothing today ?
That makes very little sense to me, in terms of 'forecasting'.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24025
763. Sfloridacat5
1:28 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting jpsb:


I googled online high school math courses and came up with lots of hits. A lot of posters here (including myself) are very good at math and would be happy to help you out from time to time. You can get that GED! Find a online course you like and find someone (local) willing to tutor you.


Lots and lots of online sites that have math games and lessons. Also Youtube is a great source of learning. There are tons of math teachers on Youtube teaching every math subject out there (from basic math to college level).
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6079
762. pottery
1:27 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting DDR:

Morning ryang,maybe i can fill in instead,i got 4.2 inches from 8pm-4am this morning,pottery is probably at work in Tobago or elsewhere :)


That's a lot !
I got 1.75'' overnight.
But it fell nice and gentle most of the night, very sweet !

Had to go to the city early this morning, and plenty standing water along the way near Aranguez, Morvant, etc.

Expecting some more during the day, then another dry week after Sunday.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24025
761. surferT
1:24 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Hello Dr.Masters
Seems like the impending El Nino has been downgraded by some projections as moderate to weak... How did they come up with this conclusion since much of the weather patterns resemble what happened prior to the severe El Nino of 97? What are your thoughts on the matter... surferT

Looks like some of that tropical energy that was in the Gulf of Mexico has been redirected back to the eastern pacific... Awe those fickle hurricanes I bet they keep you metereologists on your toes!!!
Member Since: March 29, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
760. jpsb
1:16 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting 716. KoritheMan:



I took it in 2012 and failed horribly. 5 out of 50 math questions right. My aunt was NOT a proficient math teacher (yes, I was homeschooled... although in and of itself I scarcely consider it a bad thing... it's caused me to be more logical and open-minded than most people, but now I'm digressing). I've had to essentially teach myself. I've come far.

Planning to pick up a GED study guide at the library to see what I need to study and what I shouldn't bother with.


I googled online high school math courses and came up with lots of hits. A lot of posters here (including myself) are very good at math and would be happy to help you out from time to time. You can get that GED! Find a online course you like and find someone (local) willing to tutor you.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1174
759. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:16 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
SSD floater of 94E.This should be Cristina and if conditions allow it may be a hurricane.


Perhaps a major hurricane. We'll see.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31452
758. Tropicsweatherpr
1:14 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting 757. Envoirment:

94E looks good:



Very broad as an ASCAT pass showed yesterday:



Plus it has moderate sheer affecting it at the moment:



(Circulation at about 100W and 12-14N as shown in the ASCAT pass)

Because of these 2 reasons, it'll be be a bit slow in consolidating.

Good model consensus that it'll become a TS in about 5 days:








Note: The Navgem is for winds at the 850mb level, which is around 5000 feet. Surface winds will be lower.
Note 2: The models didn't do well on intensity on Amanda, so once a good circulation forms and it moves into a lower sheer environment it could undergo faster intensification.


ECMWF has a hurricane.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
757. Envoirment
1:04 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
94E looks good:



Very broad as an ASCAT pass showed yesterday:



Plus it has moderate sheer affecting it at the moment:



(Circulation at about 100W and 12-14N as shown in the ASCAT pass)

Because of these 2 reasons, it'll be be a bit slow in consolidating.

Good model consensus that it'll become a TS in about 5 days:








Note: The Navgem is for winds at the 850mb level, which is around 5000 feet. Surface winds will be lower.
Note 2: The models didn't do well on intensity on Amanda, so once a good circulation forms and it moves into a lower sheer environment it could undergo faster intensification.
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
756. wunderkidcayman
1:01 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Ok 90L is finished like I said
We await the arrival of 91L next week
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11004
755. Tropicsweatherpr
1:01 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
SSD floater of 94E.This should be Cristina and if conditions allow it may be a hurricane.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
754. barbamz
12:55 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting 747. Wyote:

725 Barbamz : "First (mild) day of our heatwave in Germany. It's noon and already 29C/98,2F in my backyard. And this is just the beginning. But people won't complain yet :-). A lot of open air festivals this weekend."

29C = 84F but still pretty dang warm.


Ah, thanks and sorry. I've corrected it. Now the reading in my backyard already is 32C/91,4F .... ;-)

---------------------

BTW new blog from our weatherhistorian:

California Drought Update; Big Improvement in Texas
By: Christopher C. Burt , 08:39 PM GMT am 06. Juni 2014
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 51 Comments: 5636
753. hydrus
12:50 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20502
752. hydrus
12:43 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20502
750. Tropicsweatherpr
12:26 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
We have new invest 94E in EPAC.

EP, 94, 2014060612, , BEST, 0, 108N, 984W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 70, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014060618, , BEST, 0, 108N, 984W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 70, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014060700, , BEST, 0, 108N, 984W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 70, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014060706, , BEST, 0, 109N, 985W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 70, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014060712, , BEST, 0, 110N, 987W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 240, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST,
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
749. JrWeathermanFL
12:19 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
So what's the mess on the east coast near Florida?
I was wondering why it was so windy last night. Guess it was that thing lol.
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 2034
748. mcdsara1
12:17 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
My inlaws are coming to Texas for a visit in a week and a half, ANY chance a storm would mess up those plans ? (Hopefully)
Member Since: March 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
747. Wyote
12:14 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
725 Barbamz : "First (mild) day of our heatwave in Germany. It's noon and already 29C/98,2F in my backyard. And this is just the beginning. But people won't complain yet :-). A lot of open air festivals this weekend."

29C = 84F but still pretty dang warm.
Member Since: November 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
746. JrWeathermanFL
12:14 PM GMT on June 07, 2014
I still believe 90L was a storm for a little while...
But..moving on..
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 2034
745. GTstormChaserCaleb
11:57 AM GMT on June 07, 2014
Goodmorning WU blog. It's been a while, hope everything is good with everyone. So did 90L tank out as they say in the Caribbean?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
744. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:50 AM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico. Although shower and thunderstorm activity is
poorly organized at this time, slow development of this system is
possible during the next several days as the low
drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Finally!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31452
743. DDR
11:46 AM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting ryang:
Where is Pottery? Trinidad getting a good drenching from this T wave (all of it staying to the south of me).



Btw...could this be the catalyst for what the GFS/FIM (and the EURO was) are developing in the western Caribbean?

Morning ryang,maybe i can fill in instead,i got 4.2 inches from 8pm-4am this morning,pottery is probably at work in Tobago or elsewhere :)
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1685
742. Chicklit
11:44 AM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting 721. flsky:

Ponce Inlet in ECFL is fun - lots to do also in the immediate area. If you're artsy, you can head to New Smyrna Beach which is south or if you're a race fan you can hit Daytona. If you want more info shoot me a WU email.




New Smyrna Beach is the best...make sure you stay on the Beachside. Lots of reasonable condos. Great "downtown" on Flagler and on Mainland it's Canal Street. There's always something going on. Also we're "Orlando's Beach" which means it's easy to get over there and back from here. You can choose either driving or nondriving beach (I recommend nondriving) to stay on. But the driving is closest to Flagler Ave. where the action is and you won't have to drive anywhere. Of course Orlando has lots of attractions. If you play golf, prices are quite reasonable here, too.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11173
741. Tropicsweatherpr
11:44 AM GMT on June 07, 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the low
pressure area previously near Veracruz, Mexico, has moved farther
inland and is dissipating. However, the remnants of this system
could continue to produce gusty winds and heavy rains, along with
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over portions of
southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
740. LargoFl
11:41 AM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting 738. hydrus:

GFS has had that low for a long time. It appears to be just a weak depression when near Miami, but intensifies some over the Bahama,s.
ok ty..navgem is also starting to pick up on something..too early yet i guess
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36867
739. Tropicsweatherpr
11:41 AM GMT on June 07, 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico. Although shower and thunderstorm activity is
poorly organized at this time, slow development of this system is
possible during the next several days as the low
drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
738. hydrus
11:29 AM GMT on June 07, 2014
Quoting 736. LargoFl:

GFS insists a storm around Miami next weekend..we'll see what happens...............................
GFS has had that low for a long time. It appears to be just a weak depression when near Miami, but intensifies some over the Bahama,s.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20502
737. islander101010
11:27 AM GMT on June 07, 2014
dont follow the epac much but this yr it seems the storms are moving the wrong way. they should be heading wnw
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4330

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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