Boris Hits Mexico; Atlantic's First Invest of 2014 Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 04, 2014

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Tropical Storm Boris made landfall near 2 am EDT Wednesday in Southeast Mexico as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds. The storm has weakened to a tropical depression and is expected to dissipate later today, but Boris remains an extremely dangerous rainfall threat to the region. Reports from the Mexican Weather Service indicate that the city of Tonala on the coast of Chiapas has recorded 12.5" (318 mm) of storm-total rainfall, and NHC is calling for rainfall totals of up to 20" from the storm. Tropical Storm Agatha hit this region at the end of May 2010 as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds, and dumped up to 22.27" of rain. The resulting catastrophic flash floods and landslides killed 190 and caused $1.1 billion in damage, mostly in Guatemala. Heavy rains from the precursors of Boris triggered a landslide in Guatemala over the weekend, killing five people.

Heavy rains from Boris are not the only weather hazard Mexico is dealing with. A brutal heat wave with the hottest temperatures ever recorded in June scorched the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Chihuahua on Tuesday. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, monthly records for hundreds of stations with almost a century of data were beaten on Tuesday, some by as much as 5°C (8°F). The capital of the Sonora state, Hermosillo, hit 121°F (49.5°C) on Tuesday, the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city. The previous June record was 45.5°C, and the previous all-time record was 48.5°C.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 90L over the Gulf of Mexico, and the remnants of Boris over Southeast Mexico.

Atlantic's first "Invest" of 2014 forms in Gulf of Mexico
The National Hurricane Center's first area of interest in the Atlantic for 2014 was designated on Wednesday morning in the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Invest 90L is nearly stationary, but satellite loops show that 90L is kicking up some heavy thunderstorms along the Mexican coast. Wind shear as diagnosed by the 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model was high, 20 - 25 knots, and wind shear is expected to stay high over the Bay of Campeche through Saturday. By Sunday, wind shear is predicted to drop, and 90L may have a better chance to develop then. Boris' remnants will be working their way northwards and arrive in the Bay of Campeche over the weekend, and the extra spin and moisture from Boris have the potential to aid development of 90L. However, a band of high wind shear associated with strong upper-level winds from the subtropical jet stream is predicted to lie over the Central Gulf of Mexico, and these winds may interfere with development. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Southern Gulf of Mexico are about 28°, which is about 0.5° above average. These warm waters do not extend to great depth, and the total heat energy available to intensify a potential storm is rather low. SSTs cool quickly as one goes to the north, are a marginal 26°C in the Central Gulf of Mexico. None of the reliable genesis forecast models predict that 90L will develop over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 10% and 5-day odds of 20%. I put these odds at 20% and 30%, respectively, given the propensity of the Bay of Campeche to spin up tropical cyclones in recent years.

What is an "Invest"?
When a National Hurricane Center forecaster sees a tropical disturbance that may be a threat to develop into a tropical depression, the forecaster may label the disturbance an "Invest" and give it a tracking identification number. There is no formal definition of what qualifies as an "Invest". Declaring an "Invest" is merely done so that a set of forecasting aids like computer model track forecasts can be generated for the disturbance. The "Invest" is given a number 90-99, followed by a single letter corresponding to the ocean basin--"L" for the Atlantic, or "E" for the Eastern Pacific. Other warning agencies assign "Invests" for the other ocean basins--"W" for the Western Pacific, "A" for the Arabian Sea, etc. Detailed microwave and traditional satellite images are available for all "Invests" across the globe at the Navy Research Lab web site.


Figure 2. On June 1, 2014, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were a very warm 28°C in the southernmost Bay of Campeche on June 1, 2014, but diminished quickly to 26°C in the Central Gulf. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Jeff Masters

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621. Jedkins01
5:04 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 524. StormWx:

It appears those calling for Arthur to form, cross CFL and turn into GA may want to get their knife and fork ready, its crow time Scotty! Cant trust those long range models.

7 day



The WPC isn't god of rainfall forecasting either, in fact they are wrong about precip forecast more often than not. For example, I highly doubt the entire eastern 2/3 of the U/S will be getting 1-2 inches of rain over the next 7 days.

Now, this isn't about poking at the HPC rainfall forecast, but the point is that forecasting is still poorly skilled, so please don't be obnoxious to other bloggers its childish.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7280
620. TylerStanfield
3:39 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 618. Grothar:



All reliable models move 90L to the west and south. Good thing there won't be any energy left in the area.



Also look at the strong high above 90L and the wind moving everything from east to west completely moving 90L all the way west.



Even though the GFS sniffed out the storm early on, it appears the Euro won the battle for storm track.

90L has been managing very well the past 12 hours and is slowly organizing, with deep convection blowing up near the center (with a little help from the diurnal maximum), though only to get sheared off to the east. The system will have an uphill battle to contend with though. High wind shear is still present and time will begin to become an issue in the near future as it appears it may make landfall in Mexico before it can develop into a tropical cyclone. The likelihood of development is on the increase, I'd say the odds are at about 40% now, but the system will only have about 72 hours to work with, and 90L could move ashore anytime. With these very unpredictable variables we may see a quick tropical cyclone development, or we may not. It's pretty much a toss up and dependent on what recon finds this afternoon.
I think we may see an increase in likelihood of development at the next TWO, though it wouldn't be a surprise me, given the unpredictable variables of land interaction and shear, that they keep it at 30%.
* 40% chance of development over the next 48 hours
* 40% chance of development over the next five days
As most of us know by now, the Bay of Campeche is notorious for spinning these systems up quickly even when they're within 100 miles from the coast.
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619. hydrus
2:58 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20506
618. Grothar
2:38 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 615. wunderkidcayman:


12Z vort at 850mb shows the strongest vmax is just on shore


All reliable models move 90L to the west and south. Good thing there won't be any energy left in the area.



Also look at the strong high above 90L and the wind moving everything from east to west completely moving 90L all the way west.

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617. SFLWeatherman
2:35 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
90L
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616. ricderr
2:32 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
kind of funny how the media just a few months ago latched on to anyone who would state that there was a possibility of a SUPER el nino......their caveat that it was too early to tell for sure was usually relegated to the bottom portion of the article.....now...as we finally come closer to a point of certainty...the big boys and organizations can finally step up to the plate and respond.....

U.S. Private Weather Agencies Predict Weak El Niño in 2014


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Jun 04, 2014
The U.S.-based Commodity Weather Group (CWG) and the U.S-based AccuWeather Inc have predicted a weak El Niño pattern in 2014 due to the weakening of the warm pool of water below the surface of the Pacific Ocean leading to significant weakening of trade winds, reports Bloomberg.

CWG predicted a 65% probability for a weak El Niño pattern and a 35% probability for a moderate El Niño pattern; and AccuWeather predicted a 80% chance of a weak El Niño pattern. AccuWeather expects El Niño to set in during July 2014 and last for next six to eight months. The predictions bring some hope of economic damage being lower than expected.
- See more at: http://oryza.com/news/rice-news/uk-us-private-weat her-agencies-predict-weak-el-ni%C3%B1o-2014#sthash .S887h8Ia.dpuf
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21391
615. wunderkidcayman
2:30 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 607. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



12Z vort at 850mb shows the strongest vmax is just on shore
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11023
614. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:30 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
613. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:29 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
612. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:28 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
611. JRRP
2:26 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5337
610. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:26 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 608. SFLWeatherman:

Beautiful tropical wave for this time of year

THAT IT IS
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
609. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:25 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
90L/INV/XX/XX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
608. SFLWeatherman
2:25 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Beautiful tropical wave for this time of year

72HR GFS
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607. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:24 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
606. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:23 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
605. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:23 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
604. wunderkidcayman
2:23 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 594. Hurricanes101:

I had said last night that 90L was not going to be what ends up developing, but another system

Same energy same moisture but new system

Quoting 596. JRRP:

72h


700hpa relative vorticity


Nice strong
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11023
603. Grothar
2:22 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 592. weatherman994:

Grothar oooooooo I get it now 90L is not gonna be the storm 2 come for Florida so it gonna be a system from the western carribean 2 affect us next week


Maybe. It is still too early to tell. But from what I see, no model calls for anything strong.

The current wind shear is still very high in the Caribbean as you can see. The shear tendency, at this time, only drops it slightly



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602. ricderr
2:20 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
both "strong" and "super' el nino events look less and less likely...

Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21391
601. wunderkidcayman
2:19 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 592. weatherman994:

Grothar oooooooo I get it now 90L is not gonna be the storm 2 come for Florida so it gonna be a system from the western carribean 2 affect us next week

Ok it's not directly 90L but when 90L makes landfall and weakens then energy that is left from 90L will move into the W Caribbean and develop there
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11023
600. Patrap
2:19 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Sent the Boyz a e-mail saying their default header is er, "wrong"

: P


Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 041515
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 04 JUNE 2014

SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)

VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2014
WSPOD NUMBER.....14-004

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 71-
A. 05/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1600Z
D. 19.0N 94.0W
E. 05/1830Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION
NEAR 19.0N 94.5W AT 06/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP




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599. ricderr
2:18 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21391
598. ricderr
2:17 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Regardless, the forecasters remain just as confident that El Niño is likely to emerge. If El Niño forms, the forecasters and most dynamical models, such as NCEP CFSv2, slightly favor a moderate-strength event during the Northern Hemisphere fall or winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 1.0oC and 1.4oC). However, significant uncertainty accompanies this prediction, which remains inclusive of a weaker or stronger event due to the spread of the models and their skill at these lead times.

the closer we leave the "spring barrier" that makes the models unreliable the closer they resemble their results from last winter
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597. weatherman994
2:17 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Largo is the carribean we have to watch for next week
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596. JRRP
2:16 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
72h


700hpa relative vorticity
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595. SFLWeatherman
2:16 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
You can see it on the ECMWF too!

Quoting 593. wunderkidcayman:


Development window for this is just ever so slight
Maybe in less that 48hrs



Hmm quite decent
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594. Hurricanes101
2:15 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
I had said last night that 90L was not going to be what ends up developing, but another system
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7367
593. wunderkidcayman
2:12 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 586. Ricki13th:

90L has gotten the first orange crayon of the season. However, upper level winds continue to shear the system. It has a slight window of development if it can stay over water long enought also you can't ever underestimate the boc effect on weak systems. But the high should shoves into Mexico within the next 48 hours or so.

Development window for this is just ever so slight
Maybe in less that 48hrs


Quoting 588. JRRP:


GFS 54h

84h



Hmm quite decent
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11023
592. weatherman994
2:12 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Grothar oooooooo I get it now 90L is not gonna be the storm 2 come for Florida so it gonna be a system from the western carribean 2 affect us next week
Member Since: July 24, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 197
591. JRRP
2:08 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Regardless, the forecasters remain just as confident that El Niño is likely to emerge. If El Niño forms, the forecasters and most dynamical models, such as NCEP CFSv2, slightly favor a moderate-strength event during the Northern Hemisphere fall or winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 1.0oC and 1.4oC). However, significant uncertainty accompanies this prediction, which remains inclusive of a weaker or stronger event due to the spread of the models and their skill at these lead times.
Link
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590. wunderkidcayman
2:08 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 584. LargoFl:

yes next week might get a bit interesting huh, and shear in the gulf might relax they say....

The W Caribbean shear currently starting to relax eventually with that W Carib system the lower shear will carry over to the GOM with the system
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589. Grothar
2:07 PM GMT on June 05, 2014


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588. JRRP
2:07 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

So far yeah maybe let see what it look like when it comes off the coast


Don't expect much if anything at all


Quite reasonable

GFS 54h

84h

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587. LargoFl
2:06 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
I guess no one see's anything like a hurricane in the gulf anytime soon huh..at best a tropical storm..dont see any models with anything under 1000mb in their future cast runs today.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36881
586. Ricki13th
2:06 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
90L has gotten the first orange crayon of the season. However, upper level winds continue to shear the system. It has a slight window of development if it can stay over water long enought also you can't ever underestimate the boc effect on weak systems. But the high should shoves into Mexico within the next 48 hours or so.
Member Since: May 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 332
585. wunderkidcayman
2:05 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 581. LargoFl:

not from the BOC storm no.....watching the carribean for development next week
Quoting 582. Grothar:



No model really had 90L moving much. One of the few models that had a system consistently moving towards Florida or the southeast was the GFS, but that system was to come from the western Caribbean.



What ever energy is left over from 90L will move over to the W Caribbean and develop there so yes it does come from 90L in a way
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584. LargoFl
2:03 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 574. SFLWeatherman:

Good morning everyone!
GFS has it on the 12th but ECMWF has it on the 15th we got time to watch this a lot will change from now to then!

yes next week might get a bit interesting huh, and shear in the gulf might relax they say....
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583. wunderkidcayman
2:02 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 575. allancalderini:

Now I see 90L was bumped to code orange. It might develop after all. If other ts like Patty in 2012 could do it this one can too.

Umm no not gonna happen
If it does then it got really really lucky and would be nothing more than a Invest borderline TD nothing more than 30mph
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582. Grothar
2:02 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 548. weatherman994:

So this means no Florida hit from this system


No model really had 90L moving much. One of the few models that had a system consistently moving towards Florida or the southeast was the GFS, but that system was to come from the western Caribbean.

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581. LargoFl
2:01 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 578. weatherman994:

Largo so no Florida hit
not from the BOC storm no.....watching the carribean for development next week,but things change fast,stay alert as always huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36881
580. ricderr
2:01 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
the el nino monthly discussion is out....if you thought that they would declare el nino at this update....well....you were wrong

they do state that there is a 70 percent chance that el nino will be declared this summer....and an 80 percent chance of it being declared in the fall
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579. LargoFl
2:00 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
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578. weatherman994
1:59 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Largo so no Florida hit
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577. wunderkidcayman
1:58 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 572. JRRP:

the best wave


So far yeah maybe let see what it look like when it comes off the coast

Quoting 573. LargoFl:

well right now they are waiting for the plane to go in and see what the storm is doing and taking their readings....we'll know more this afternoon..i dont expect much from the BOC storm..rain for mexico probably.

Don't expect much if anything at all

Quoting 574. SFLWeatherman:

Good morning everyone!
GFS has it on the 12th but ECMWF has it on the 15th we got time to watch this a lot will change from now to then!


Quite reasonable
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576. JrWeathermanFL
1:58 PM GMT on June 05, 2014


Good Mornin America How Are Ya...
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575. allancalderini
1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Now I see 90L was bumped to code orange. It might develop after all. If other ts like Patty in 2012 could do it this one can too.
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574. SFLWeatherman
1:51 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Good morning everyone!
GFS has it on the 12th but ECMWF has it on the 15th we got time to watch this a lot will change from now to then!
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573. LargoFl
1:50 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 569. weatherman994:

Largo can you explain to me what's going with the system in terms of path
well right now they are waiting for the plane to go in and see what the storm is doing and taking their readings....we'll know more this afternoon..i dont expect much from the BOC storm..rain for mexico probably.
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572. JRRP
1:49 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
the best wave
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571. wunderkidcayman
1:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2014
Quoting 568. weathermanwannabe:

Gonna get some work done and check in later. If you look closely at the latest vis-loop frames, convection was trying to fire near the COC within the last few hours, and the sheer rolled over it and blew off the convective cloud tops...............Sheer rules on this one at the moment.

Yeah either way LLC should be meeting land later
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.