Boris a Dangerous Rainfall Threat for Mexico and Guatemala

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on June 03, 2014

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Torrential rains are lashing Southeast Mexico and Southern Guatemala as Tropical Storm Boris lumbers northwards at about 5 mph, with landfall expected to occur Wednesday in Southeast Mexico. Even though Boris has top winds of just 40 mph, and will, at worst, be a weak tropical storm at landfall, it is an extremely dangerous rainfall threat to the region, as the storm's slow motion is expected keep heavy rains over the region the entire week. The NHC forecast is for 10 - 20" of rain with isolated amounts of 30 inches (750 mm) or more in the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing widespread flooding and heavy loss of life. Tropical Storm Agatha hit this region at the end of May 2010 as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds, and dumped up to 22.27" of rain. The resulting catastrophic flash floods and landslides killed 190 and caused $1.1 billion in damage, mostly in Guatemala. Heavy rains from the precursors of Boris triggered a landslide in Guatemala over the weekend, killing five people. In neighboring areas of Mexico, several landslides closed mountain roads on Monday, and evacuations began Monday evening from coastal and low-lying areas next to rivers that are prone to flooding.


FIgure 1. Latest satellite image of Boris.

Satellite images show that Boris is poorly organized, but has several clumps of heavy thunderstorms. Mexican radar showed the heaviest rains were offshore this morning, but these rains will move inland today as the storm heads north at 5 mph.


Figure 2. Satellite rainfall estimates for the 24-hour period ending Tuesday morning, June 3, 2014 over Central America. Rainfall amounts in excess of 200 mm (7.87") were estimated along the Guatemala coast and near the Belize/Mexico border. Image credit: http://climaya.com.

Will Boris emerge into the Gulf of Mexico late this week?
If Boris continues due north along its current path at its current speed for the remainder of the week, the storm will cross the narrowest part of Mexico and potentially emerge over the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche late this week. Once over the warm waters of the Gulf, the remnants of Boris will have the potential to regenerate into a tropical depression. The 06Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS model, which uses the GFS model to diagnose wind shear, is predicting that wind shear in the Bay of Campeche will be moderate, 10 - 15 knots, on Friday and Saturday. However, a band of high wind shear associated with strong upper-level winds from the subtropical jet stream is predicted to lie over the Central Gulf of Mexico, and these winds may interfere with development. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Southern Gulf of Mexico are about 28°, which is about 0.5° above average. These warm waters do not extend to great depth, and the total heat energy available to intensify a potential storm is rather low. SSTs cool quickly as one goes to the north, are a marginal 26°C in the Central Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model is bullish on developing a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico late this week. But according to WSI's tropical weather expert Michael Ventrice, who has guest blogged on El Niño in my blog, the GFS likely has insufficient resolution to handle a large tropical low pressure system forecast to set up over Central American late this week. These large low pressure systems often have "spokes" of extra spin that rotate around the main low, and these "spokes" are often erroneously developed into tropical depressions by the GFS model. The European model is much less gung-ho about developing a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico late this week, and NHC is currently giving no chance that such an event will happen by Sunday. I put the odds at 10%.


Figure 3. Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were a very warm 28°C in the southmost Bay of Campeche on June 1, 2014, but diminished quickly to 26°C in the Central Gulf. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 635. Tazmanian:

this is saying BORIS is no longer a TD i dont think we can even call it a TD i think it DISSIPATED

03/2345 UTC 15.7N 94.1W T1.0/2.0 BORIS -- East Pacific

Yeah I think Boris is done
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this is saying BORIS is no longer a Ts i dont think we can even call it a TD i think it DISSIPATED

03/2345 UTC 15.7N 94.1W T1.0/2.0 BORIS -- East Pacific
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5095 Comments: 116120
The mass of hail reports shows how steep lapse rates are in the region.
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Quoting 619. stormpetrol:

I think what is left of Boris LLC will emerge in the GOH and moved ENE or NE.


Yes agreed the new vort maps for 00Z shows the vort associated with the trof of low pressure that extends from the BOC to the GOH it's getting thicker over Guatemala and Honduras to the GOH
As Boris makes it's move before landfall

Quoting 622. stormpetrol:

Boris on the coastline at 15.6N/93.4W


That or somewhere very very close to that

Quoting 623. saltydog1327:

WKC: Thanks for the answer... I'm talking about the "no anything region" north of that line...

Thanks tho!

Upper level trof

Quoting 626. redwagon:

Quoting 617. wunderkidcayman:
Wow starting to get wet massively

This is the mess phase, right before the coalesce phase. Within hours the mess will collapse,
disappear and their will be a new consolidated low in the BOC.

Saw a stunning example of this last year in real-time with MoonlightCowboy and Patrap. Only
takes about 30 minutes.

That's if it consolidated in the BOC
It's gonna take a really long while for these monsoonal systems to get there act together

Quoting 628. Stormwatch247:

Looks like the energy of Boris BOC firing up. Although there is some sheer, the overall size of the whole system might keep it going for awhile. It will be hard to spin down, given its size.

Yep and with that we can't be sure if it will consolidate in the BOC it could be in the GOH or anywhere else
But IMHO I'm not sold on the BOC at this time
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Has Gro blobbed on the blog today?
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It's 106 in El paso at 630...High was 107...obliterating our previous record...tomorrow is supposed to be warmer..I now know how the wicked witch felt...I'm melting
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EP, 02, 2014060400, , BEST, 0, 155N, 940W, 35, 1000, TS
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Classic examples of overshooting tops on visible imagery across Nebraska and Kansas. Note the shadows being cast as a byproduct of the setting sun and height of the supercells.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34205
Quoting 617. wunderkidcayman:

Wow starting to get wet massively
From Florida to Panama
From PR to Mexico


Looks like the energy of Boris
Quoting 617. wunderkidcayman:

Wow starting to get wet massively
From Florida to Panama
From PR to Mexico


BOC firing up. Although there is some sheer, the overall size of the whole system might keep it going for awhile, especially if the center reforms farther north, after landfall on the Mexican Pacific coast. It might be hard to spin down, given its size..
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Quoting 617. wunderkidcayman:

Wow starting to get wet massively
From Florida to Panama
From PR to Mexico


Just high clouds here.
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Quoting 617. wunderkidcayman:
Wow starting to get wet massively

This is the mess phase, right before the coalesce phase. Within hours the mess will collapse,
disappear and their will be a new consolidated low in the BOC.

Saw a stunning example of this last year in real-time with MoonlightCowboy and Patrap. Only
takes about 30 minutes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Well our AOI looks like it has clouds....
Then there's just a wall in the NW GOM..
NCEP fronts still shows a 1005 mb low right off the coast in the BOC..
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WKC: Thanks for the answer... I'm talking about the "no anything region" north of that line...

Thanks tho!
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Boris on the coastline at 15.6N/93.4W
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Quoting 613. saltydog1327:

So my fellow "watchers of the tropics".. is that a front stretching from the panhandle/bend area of FL to MX a front? if so, what are the expectations of it to hang out or move?
it's a monsoonal trough and moisture being squeezed between 2 high pressure cells. The upper trough will close off, and the BOC low might develop into our first tropical storm.
Member Since: May 7, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SMALL 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18.5N94.5W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE
LOW TO 23N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 89W-94W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE AXIS OVER THE E GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE E OF 88W TO INCLUDE FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SURFACE LOW TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 26N.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
I think what is left of Boris LLC will emerge in the GOH and moved ENE or NE.
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Quoting 613. saltydog1327:

So my fellow "watchers of the tropics".. is that a front stretching from the panhandle/bend area of FL to MX a front? if so, what are the expectations of it to hang out or move?

No it's tropical related
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Wow starting to get wet massively
From Florida to Panama
From PR to Mexico

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Quoting 610. Gearsts:


Looks rather impressive to me.
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Quoting 602. StormWx:



I agree Scott, lets give a high five to that computer model! It has sniffed out the tropical mischief that is going to happen sometime in the future down in the BOC. Its pretty amazing how spot on it was! Oh wait, thats right, nothing has happened yet, lol.

Since Arhur is going to form and traverse FL and curve back into GA, im going to be the first at Home Depot, so i'll talk to everyone tomorrow :o)


To state that nothing has happened is completely incorrect. Look at the BOC, bubba. Note the heavy daytime sea breeze driven convection moving off the yucatan into the BOC, and the broad low over Central America extending into the BOC. As the low creates its own micro environment and the upper trough to the north closes off, expect shear to drop and Arthur to gradually form in the GOM and head NE towards FL.
Member Since: May 7, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 158
So my fellow "watchers of the tropics".. is that a front stretching from the panhandle/bend area of FL to MX a front? if so, what are the expectations of it to hang out or move?
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NHC says 15.4N 94.1W
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Look I'll believe it when I see it
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Quoting 606. StormingInChicago:


Sure it is.

are u just trying to mess with people
Member Since: October 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 960
Quoting 599. MAweatherboy1:


That flight will almost certainly get cancelled or postponed.
Probable postponed but I really believe this might be our first invest maybe not a td or ts but a invest.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4488
Yeah 18Z GFS don't buy it 7 days of a low not doing anything and stationary around 1005-1003mbs
Sorry just don't see it happening not for around 7 days atleast
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Not seeing the tornado threat materialize like convection-allowing models forecast it to; that's a good thing because the atmosphere is incredibly volatile across eastern Nebraska. That said, we'll see how the rest of the event goes.

Hail reports lead the way on the SPC reports map, but wind should become the main story tonight as a derecho forms and progresses eastward.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34205
Quoting 595. allancalderini:

Looks like the NHC is more interested in the AOI as they are planning to fly in Thursday to BOC.

That flight will almost certainly get cancelled or postponed.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 8309
I believe TS Boris LLC is near 15.1N 93.8W movement NE-ENE landfall soon
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Quoting 592. MAweatherboy1:


I don't know about that. The GFS has been painting a storm in the medium range for a week or so, either in the BOC or NW Caribbean. Now it shows a TD forming in the BOC in only 36 hours or so. No way that's happening. Chances are nothing will form at all. I'd hardly call the NHC TWO encouraging. Frankly, I'm more frustrated than ever with the poor performance of the GFS.
Looks like the NHC is more interested in the AOI as they are planning to fly in Thursday to BOC.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4488
Quoting 589. TylerStanfield:


Tomorrow is possible, depending on what happens with Boris.


When is it scheduled for?



now how would i no that this look at the time stamp


NOUS42 KNHC 031555
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT TUE 03 JUNE 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-003 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS...........................(CHANGED)
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21.0N 96.0W FOR 05/1800Z


18z i gust


you will find it under For Tomorrow (text issued today)
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5095 Comments: 116120
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I thought they had nothing on the last update? Site has been acting up so maybe I missed it but either way big ups to the GFS for sniffing this out.

The site has been acting up for me also. I finally have gotten a more or less reliable connection this morning.

The AOI was added with the 2:00 pm update. The 8:00 pm is just a repeat of the 2:00. I'm not convinced we get 90L out of this, or least not for at least the next five days. Whatever this blob is (or becomes), it has nowhere to go now in the face of the shear in the Gulf. It's also dependent on Boris (or its remnants) acting as a kicker, and I'm not convinced about that either. This may turn out to be much ado about nothing, but it's so far out that I'm just guessing.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 21319
Quoting 588. StormTrackerScott:



I thought they had nothing on the last update? Site has been acting up so maybe I missed it but either way big ups to the GFS for sniffing this out.

I don't know about that. The GFS has been painting a storm in the medium range for a week or so, either in the BOC or NW Caribbean. Now it shows a TD forming in the BOC in only 36 hours or so. No way that's happening. Chances are nothing will form at all. I'd hardly call the NHC TWO encouraging. Frankly, I'm more frustrated than ever with the poor performance of the GFS.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 88 Comments: 8309

Quoting 589. TylerStanfield:


Tomorrow is possible, depending on what happens with Boris.


When is it scheduled for?
Thursday, 2pm
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Quoting 588. StormTrackerScott:



I thought they had nothing on the last update? Site has been acting up so maybe I missed it but either way big ups to the GFS for sniffing this out.

It was there on the 2PM TWO.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 1519
Quoting 582. StormTrackerScott:

I suspect 90L is coming tomorrow or Thursday.

Tomorrow is possible, depending on what happens with Boris.

Quoting 579. Tazmanian:

i gust i be the 1st two post this

OUS42 KNHC 031555
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT TUE 03 JUNE 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-003 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS...........................(CHANGED)
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21.0N 96.0W FOR 05/1800Z.


When is it scheduled for?
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 1519
Quoting 584. sar2401:


Same as it was with the last update. Even the wording is identical.


I thought they had nothing on the last update? Site has been acting up so maybe I missed it but either way big ups to the GFS for sniffing this out.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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