Boris a Dangerous Rainfall Threat for Mexico and Guatemala

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on June 03, 2014

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Torrential rains are lashing Southeast Mexico and Southern Guatemala as Tropical Storm Boris lumbers northwards at about 5 mph, with landfall expected to occur Wednesday in Southeast Mexico. Even though Boris has top winds of just 40 mph, and will, at worst, be a weak tropical storm at landfall, it is an extremely dangerous rainfall threat to the region, as the storm's slow motion is expected keep heavy rains over the region the entire week. The NHC forecast is for 10 - 20" of rain with isolated amounts of 30 inches (750 mm) or more in the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing widespread flooding and heavy loss of life. Tropical Storm Agatha hit this region at the end of May 2010 as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds, and dumped up to 22.27" of rain. The resulting catastrophic flash floods and landslides killed 190 and caused $1.1 billion in damage, mostly in Guatemala. Heavy rains from the precursors of Boris triggered a landslide in Guatemala over the weekend, killing five people. In neighboring areas of Mexico, several landslides closed mountain roads on Monday, and evacuations began Monday evening from coastal and low-lying areas next to rivers that are prone to flooding.


FIgure 1. Latest satellite image of Boris.

Satellite images show that Boris is poorly organized, but has several clumps of heavy thunderstorms. Mexican radar showed the heaviest rains were offshore this morning, but these rains will move inland today as the storm heads north at 5 mph.


Figure 2. Satellite rainfall estimates for the 24-hour period ending Tuesday morning, June 3, 2014 over Central America. Rainfall amounts in excess of 200 mm (7.87") were estimated along the Guatemala coast and near the Belize/Mexico border. Image credit: http://climaya.com.

Will Boris emerge into the Gulf of Mexico late this week?
If Boris continues due north along its current path at its current speed for the remainder of the week, the storm will cross the narrowest part of Mexico and potentially emerge over the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche late this week. Once over the warm waters of the Gulf, the remnants of Boris will have the potential to regenerate into a tropical depression. The 06Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS model, which uses the GFS model to diagnose wind shear, is predicting that wind shear in the Bay of Campeche will be moderate, 10 - 15 knots, on Friday and Saturday. However, a band of high wind shear associated with strong upper-level winds from the subtropical jet stream is predicted to lie over the Central Gulf of Mexico, and these winds may interfere with development. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Southern Gulf of Mexico are about 28°, which is about 0.5° above average. These warm waters do not extend to great depth, and the total heat energy available to intensify a potential storm is rather low. SSTs cool quickly as one goes to the north, are a marginal 26°C in the Central Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model is bullish on developing a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico late this week. But according to WSI's tropical weather expert Michael Ventrice, who has guest blogged on El Niño in my blog, the GFS likely has insufficient resolution to handle a large tropical low pressure system forecast to set up over Central American late this week. These large low pressure systems often have "spokes" of extra spin that rotate around the main low, and these "spokes" are often erroneously developed into tropical depressions by the GFS model. The European model is much less gung-ho about developing a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico late this week, and NHC is currently giving no chance that such an event will happen by Sunday. I put the odds at 10%.


Figure 3. Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were a very warm 28°C in the southmost Bay of Campeche on June 1, 2014, but diminished quickly to 26°C in the Central Gulf. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Jeff Masters

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0208
– Valid until: 06/04/2014 0200Z
– States affected: MT NE SD WY
– Issued: 16 minutes ago
TORNADO 0207
– Valid until: 06/04/2014 0000Z
– States affected: IA MO NE
– Issued: 06/03/2014 at 1815Z
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 434 Comments: 133467
Quoting 307. redwagon:

Quoting Calkev:

Hey, Kev, what's your spidey-sense saying on this system?


Personally I think that this will be a rainmaker in the immediate vicinity but as far as any impact in the US: none. If it does emerge as a remnant low in the BOC, I would imagine it will be absorbed by a trough and carried into the Eastern Gulf. In a wishhul thinking kind of way, however, I wouldn't mind if a ridge of high pressure established dominance over the central GOM and the remnant moisture fed into an approaching front over the lone star state, however given the foreseeable conditions that is darn near impossible. The storm would have had to enter into Mexico much further West than where it currently stands. But hey the season is early and I anticipate much of our precip will come from EPAC storm moisture feeds. BTW Lake Travis peaked at 4.5 feet gains from the last bout of storms. Thats always great news. :)
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I got the joke and I really don't understand why other people couldn't. People joke about the xtrp all the time here. I just can't wrap my head around why it was such a big deal.

We have a birthday party to attend at the beach this weekend. It better not rain!



LOL......i'm sure if you tip your hat...click your heels...there will be no rain........i guarantee it :-)
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Quoting 380. TropicalAnalystwx13:

High risk forthcoming.

Presumably for the derecho threat?
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Conditions in North Platte

A Few Clouds

86°F
30°C

Humidity 51%
Wind Speed SE 15 G 32 mph
Barometer 29.72 in (1003.7 mb)
Dewpoint 66°F (19°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index 88°F (31°C)

Last Update on 3 Jun 1:53 pm CDT
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Quoting 338. ricderr:

i could never live in El Paso. The weather is too boring.



it's not boring at all.....just different than most.....not many people can make the claim that in one day....12 hour period....they had the following...

dust storm.....
hail....
rain.....
snow....


u forgot tumble weeds lots and lots of tumble weeds
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High risk forthcoming.
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Quoting 365. LargoFl:
besides that..its a nice place to live...couple of towns north of me...some good fishing up there also if you into that..
He does go fishing on a regular basis. It is a very nice area to live. Much nicer than Miami.
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The forecast high for tomorrow is 11c (51F), which is quite below average for June here, but as the week goes on things should warm up nicely, with friday's high forecast at 18c (64F).

Going to be quite rainy tomorrow too, thanks to an area of low pressure...

Wednesday


Thursday


Friday
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375. csmda
Quoting 312. ricderr:

Starting trouble I see:)



not at all.....just clarifying for the nitpickers....the original post was aired for the benefit of some long time lurkers who got the joke


I got the joke and I really don't understand why other people couldn't. People joke about the xtrp all the time here. I just can't wrap my head around why it was such a big deal.

We have a birthday party to attend at the beach this weekend. It better not rain!
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Special Weather Statement

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
249 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

IAZ090-091-032030-
FREMONT IA-PAGE IA-
249 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PAGE AND
SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 249 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES EAST OF HAMBURG...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF TARKIO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHENANDOAH...ESSEX...FARRAGUT...COIN...NORTHBORO AND PIERCE
RECREATION AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4067 9511 4058 9528 4058 9564 4059 9565
4086 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 226DEG 15KT 4057 9551

$$

BOUSTEAD
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Quoting Bluestorm5:


What make you think it will be a bust if nothing happens in a hour, though? I think there's still about 2-3 hours left, but it should initiate in the next 60-120 minutes. I don't think it'll be that bad as feared (as usual) but the potential is there to be really really bad, hence the hype.

Oh, I don't think it's a bust. I hope it's a bust. As long as we don't get any really violent HP long track tornadoes, it would be a good bust for the people living there. It's just my experience on the Plains that 1500 hours tends to be the make or break point between the usual bad weather that can occur in spring, and really bad weather. There will still be time for severe thunderstorms and some "normal" Plains tornadoes, just not enough time for long track tornadoes to set up. I could be completely wrong but I hope not, for the sake of people's lives and property.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 21320
Quoting 364. BayPinesFL:


That's what interests me. How well will our property keep up with draining during a good old fashioned tropical depression/storm downpour.
Every time they are on a severe weather alert or warning I call him and he always informs me his area is not feeling it. I remember a TS warning within the past couple of years and he said other than a nice breeze...nada.
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Quoting StormingInChicago:
Lots of deep convection firing up. I'm getting cold just thinking how cold those cloud tops are!!!!!


Do you have a walk-in freezer??????????
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Starting to initiate, I think. About right considering the boundary is in Mullen/Thedford area.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Could be a very dangerous afternoon and evening in parts of Nebraska, very impressive parameters for supercells and tornadoes, potentially strong and long track. Not really an outbreak setup as has been mentioned due to a likely lack of storm coverage (hence only the 10% hatched probs from the SPC ), but anything that forms could drop a strong tornado. Per the HRRR, convection should have already fired by now, but obviously the cap is holding pretty tight. That delay is not really a factor at this point, but if nothing gets going in the next 90 minutes or so then certainly that will limit the tornado threat. The long lived derecho threat for areas farther east is nothing to take lightly either.

I believe the derecho will actually turn out to be the big story. Not say there won't be severe storms further west but I just don't think think the cap is going to break soon enough to get many tornadoes, especially long trackers, going. It looks like the bowing segments in northern Nebraska and over into Iowa is already getting set up, and this cluster of storms already has a good history of high winds and hail. The conditions east of the bowing line look good to propagate a derecho event.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 21320
Quoting 334. StormingInChicago:


No but his handle has the word Cayman in it so it's very reasonable to expect he or she is from there, no?

I'm Caymanian so yeah
So yeah
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 13856
Quoting 346. stormwatcherCI:

Good afternoon. My Dad lives in Dunedin and it seems like the area usually does not get the really heavy rains like the surrounding areas.
besides that..its a nice place to live...couple of towns north of me...some good fishing up there also if you into that..
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Quoting 346. stormwatcherCI:

Good afternoon. My Dad lives in Dunedin and it seems like the area usually does not get the really heavy rains like the surrounding areas.


That's what interests me. How well will our property keep up with draining during a good old fashioned tropical depression/storm downpour.
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Quoting 355. StormingInChicago:

i say I am going to start blogging about sunny skies instead of storms!! How does that sound :-)


Sounds like you're a troll. Got nothing better to do?
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Quoting 301. sar2401:


I think it will also, but timing on the Plains is critical. I'm looking at the North Platte radar now and, so far, there's zero initiation. If it still looks like that in an hour, it's more likely than not this will not turn out to be as bad as feared. When they initiate, watch the growth rate of the discrete cells. If they take off like rockets, then there's going to be big trouble. We shall see, although I hope it's a bust for the sake of people living in Nebraska.


What make you think it will be a bust if nothing happens in a hour, though? I think there's still about 2-3 hours left, but it should initiate in the next 60-120 minutes. I don't think it'll be that bad as feared (as usual) but the potential is there to be really really bad, hence the hype.
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Evening Everyone!
Been a pleasant day here today, with a high of around 20c (68F), with a few light showers now and again.
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Living in Orlando, I am confident that for any given time there is always some weather model forecasting my doom.
:)



at least they're consistant
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373
ABNT20 KNHC 031730
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...LOW...20 PERCENT

$$
FORECASTER SULLIVAN
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Quoting 304. StormingInChicago:


What are the names this year for Atlantic systems? What's the evil "I" name? haha

Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Eduoard
Fay
Gonzalo (Gustav's Replacement)
Hanna
Isaias (Ike's Replacement)
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette (Paloma's Replacement)
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred
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Quoting 335. bappit:


That's the Florida model. The first assumption is that something will hit Florida. The second assumption is that it will be bad. Plug in a time you are posting your comment and you know the rest.


Living in Orlando, I am confident that for any given time there is always some weather model forecasting my doom.
:)
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Could be a very dangerous afternoon and evening in parts of Nebraska, very impressive parameters for supercells and tornadoes, potentially strong and long track. Not really an outbreak setup as has been mentioned due to a likely lack of storm coverage (hence only the 10% hatched probs from the SPC ), but anything that forms could drop a strong tornado. Per the HRRR, convection should have already fired by now, but obviously the cap is holding pretty tight. That delay is not really a factor at this point, but if nothing gets going in the next 90 minutes or so then certainly that will limit the tornado threat. The long lived derecho threat for areas farther east is nothing to take lightly either.
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Come visit my blog on the 2 potential scenarios in regards to TS Boris as it emerges into the BOC. GFS may infact be onto something as the 12Z Euro seems to coming around as well but at day 10 in the Central Gulf as a weak reflection.

Link
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Quoting StormingInChicago:

Nothing wrong with a lil zest! It makes a good met. Look at Joe Bastardi. One of the best out there and his forecasts aren't exactly "conservative"...

LOL
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Quoting 263. BayPinesFL:


I'm closing on our new house in Dunedin in a month, I'd appreciate an opportunity to see how it stands up to heavy rain before then. :) Over the years of lurking here I've really stopped paying attention to anything more than 3-5 days out though.
Good afternoon. My Dad lives in Dunedin and it seems like the area usually does not get the really heavy rains like the surrounding areas.
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Quoting StormingInChicago:

The XTRP model is just an extrapolation of what a system would look like if it kept going the same direction it was heading when model data was analyzed and collected for it. Not to be used with guidance or forecasting.

But if you do use it for forecasting, call it persistence.
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Quoting 199. TropicalAnalystwx13:



Circulation still remains elongated. Which means Boris will probably not strengthen much more before it makes Landfall in the next 36 hours. Thinking 45 Mph as peak. Boris is definitely not at it's best right now, as most of the southern semicircle is lacking in convection.


The most interesting part will be seeing how much will be left of the storm after it traverses Mexico. Weaker systems have been notorious for being able to survive over land longer than stronger storms, so it will be interesting to see how much energy Boris will lend over to the Bay of Campeche.
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i could never live in El Paso. The weather is too boring.



it's not boring at all.....just different than most.....not many people can make the claim that in one day....12 hour period....they had the following...

dust storm.....
hail....
rain.....
snow....

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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