The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:53 PM GMT on June 02, 2014

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The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, and we already have an area of interest in the Gulf of Mexico to talk about. An area of low pressure over the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity, and this area has a slight potential to develop late this week. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Saturday. The chances for this disturbance to develop depend heavily on the fate of an area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific located a few hundred miles south of Southeast Mexico (Invest 93E), which will move slowly northwards towards the Gulf of Mexico this week. Satellite loops show a steady increase in the intensity and organization of the heavy thunderstorms associated with 93E, and the system is already bringing heavy rains to Southern Guatemala and Southeast Mexico. With the 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model showing light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm ocean temperatures of 29.5°C for the remainder of the week along 93E's path, development into a tropical depression is likely. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Wednesday, and a 90% chance by Saturday. The 06Z Monday run of the GFS model predicts that this disturbance will make landfall in Southeast Mexico on Wednesday. The 00Z Monday European model is slower, predicting a Thursday landfall. It is possible that moisture and spin from 93E will aid the spin-up of a system over the Southern Gulf of Mexico late this week. In any case, residents of Southeast Mexico and Western Guatemala appear at risk to undergo a multi-day period of very heavy rainfall likely to cause flash flooding and dangerous mudslides.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 93.

Summary of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts
The major hurricane forecasting groups are not impressed with this season's potential to be an active one, and are calling for 2014 to be a below average to near-average year for the Atlantic. The most daring forecast was issued by Florida State, which calls for just 7 named storms and 4 hurricanes. The other groups are calling for 9 - 12 named storms. The main reason for the quiet forecasts is the likely emergence of El Niño. Every 3 - 7 years, variations in tropical winds and pressure shift warm ocean waters eastwards from the Western Pacific to the South American coast, causing an El Niño event. The unusually warm water tends to drive an atmospheric circulation that brings strong upper-level winds to the tropical Atlantic, creating high levels of wind shear that tend to tear hurricanes apart. Another factor leading to lower forecast numbers than in previous years is the fact that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are near average this year--quite a bit cooler than we've seen during the typical year during our active hurricane period that began in 1995.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for May 29, 2014. SSTs were near average over the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to Central America between 10°N and 20°N, including the Caribbean. As of June 2, 2014, SSTs over the region typically used to define El Niño events, 5°N - 5°S to 120°W - 170°W (the Niño 3.4 region) were at the threshold for El Niño conditions, +0.6°C from average, according to the latest weekly NOAA El Niño update. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 3. Surface winds in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to Central America between 10°N and 20°N, including the Caribbean, were stronger than average during the first four months of 2014. These winds stirred up more cooler water from the depths than usual, resulting in cooler sea surface temperatures than otherwise would have occurred. The stronger trade winds were due to a persistent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which strengthened the semi-permanent high pressure system that lies over the Azores Islands, creating a stronger clockwise flow of air around the high. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

NOAA predicts a below-average hurricane season: 10.5 named storms
NOAA's May 22 Atlantic hurricane season forecast predicts a 50% chance of a below-normal season, a 40% chance of an near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 8 - 13 named storms, 3 - 6 hurricanes, and 1 - 2 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 40% - 100% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 10.5 named storms, 4.5 hurricanes, 1.5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% of normal. This is below the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2013 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.

NOAA cites three key factors influencing their forecast for a below-normal to near-normal hurricane season:

1) An El Niño event is predicted for the summer and fall, which is expected to bring strong wind shear-inducing upper-level winds over the Tropical Atlantic. Vertical wind shear during the past 30 days was stronger than average across much of the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. Sinking air at mid-and upper-levels was also stronger than average. The development of El Niño would mean a likely continuation of these non-conducive conditions, and both versions of NOAA's long-range CFS model are predicting enhanced vertical wind shear across the western MDR during August-September-October 2014. Strong vertical wind shear and sinking motion, linked to a rare jet stream pattern of record strength, were key suppressing factors during the unexpectedly quiet 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.

2) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near average in the MDR. Many long-range dynamical computer forecast models are predicting that SSTs in the MDR will remain near- or below-average throughout the hurricane season.

3) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995, and this positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) may act to keep hurricane activity higher than it would otherwise be.

Colorado State predicts a below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
A below-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2014, according to the June 2 seasonal hurricane forecast by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 65, about 2/3 of average. The forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (22% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (23% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also below average, at 32% (42% is average.)

CSU's Analogue years: 2009, 2002, 1997, 1965, and 1957
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what they expect for this year: at least moderate El Niño conditions, neutral to slightly cool sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and a positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). Those five years were 2009, a quiet year with 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes; 2002, which featured two major hurricanes that got their names retired: Lili and Isidore; 1997, a quiet year with only 8 named storms and 3 hurricanes; 1963, with 9 named storms and 7 hurricanes, including Cuba's deadliest hurricane of all-time: Hurricane Flora (8,000 killed); and 1957, a below-average year with 8 named storms and 2 major hurricanes, including June's deadly Hurricane Audrey, which was re-analyzed as a Category 3 storm this year. The average activity during these five analogue years was 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The CSU team will issue an updated forecast on July 31, 2014.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2004-2013, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2004 - 2013 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, modest for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season: 12 named storms
The May 27 forecast for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for a near-average season with 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 75. The long-term averages for the past 64 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 102. TSR rates their skill level as modest for these April forecasts: 7 - 15% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. They project that 3 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1 of these being a hurricane. The averages from the 1950-2013 climatology are 3 named storms and 1 hurricane hitting the United States. TSR rates their skill at making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 5% - 8% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects one named storm and no hurricanes in 2014. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR's two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July - September trade wind speeds over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August - September 2013 sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes. Their model is calling for SSTs 0.32°C below average and trade winds 1 m/s stronger than average during these periods; both of these factors should act to decrease hurricane and tropical storm activity. The July-September 2014 trade wind prediction is based on an expectation of moderate El Niño conditions in August-September 2014. TSR will issue an updated forecast on May 27, 2014.

Penn State predicts a below-average hurricane season: 9 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann, alumnus Michael Kozar, and researcher Sonya Miller is calling for a quiet Atlantic hurricane season with 9.3 named storms, plus or minus 3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistical model assumes that the mid-May 2014 0.29°C above average SSTs in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, a moderate El Niño will be in place, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize. They were the only major forecast group that issued a successful 2013 Atlantic hurricane season forecast.

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19
2013 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 14

FSU predicts a below-average hurricane season: 7 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their sixth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 29, and went the lowest of any of the major forecast group: a 70% probability of 5 - 9 named storms and 2 - 6 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 7 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 60. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast did well in 2009 - 2012, but badly missed the number of hurricanes in their 2013 prediction (8 predicted, but only 2 formed):

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes
2013 prediction: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes. Actual: 14 named storms, 2 hurricanes

UK Met Office predicts a below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 16, calls for below-average activity, with 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 84. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, PSU, and NOAA, the UKMET forecast is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. Their forecasts for the past two years have not verified well:

2012 prediction: 10 named storms, ACE index of 90; Actual: 19 named storms, ACE index of 123
2013 prediction: 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, ACE index of 130; Actual: 14 named storms, 2 hurricanes, ACE index of 31

Predictions from WU, WSI, and NC State
Weather Underground Community Hurricane Forecast: 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes
WSI: 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes
North Carolina State: 9.5 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes

Even a quiet hurricane season can be devastating
Quiet hurricane seasons with below-average activity can still produce major hurricanes that cause massive devastation. The five seasons that CSU lists as analogue years for 2014 produced four hurricanes that had their names retired, including one that killed 8,000 people in Cuba (Flora of 1963) and one that killed over 400 people in Texas and Louisiana (Audrey of 1957.) Even if an El Niño does develop this year, that doesn't mean it will be a quiet season. Recall the El Niño year of 2004, when four major hurricanes pounded the U.S.--Ivan, Charlie, Jeanne, and Frances. Those of you in Hurricane Alley should prepare for the 2014 season the same way you would for a predicted hyperactive season, and be ready for the Storm of the Century to hit your location.

Jeff Masters

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333. hatrickp
4:26 PM GMT on June 03, 2014
What exactly has caused this year's drop-off in Sea Surface Temperatures in the tropical Atlantic? Is this the beginning of the high AMO phase winding down, or a temporary fluke?
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
332. wunderkidcayman
11:25 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Hey guys I'm back and seems like GFS starts the trend into the W Caribbean system development with 18Z
And I see we now have TD2E as expected
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11018
331. Skyepony (Mod)
9:35 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
02E Click pic for loop.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
330. Skyepony (Mod)
9:31 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Heat Wave in Egypt on Monday, 02 June, 2014 at 03:30 (03:30 AM) UTC.
Description
Egypt is expected to be struck by a heatwave starting Tuesday, said Egyptian Meteorological Authority Chairman Ahmed Hussein. "The heatwave’s peak will be on Wednesday," he said. Temperatures will exceed normal rates for this time of the year by 10-11 degrees celsius. The Highest temperature on Wednesday in Cairo will be 44 degrees celsius. Temperatures are expected to get lower beginning Thursday by 11-12 degrees celsius in Cairo and other governorates. The authority warned citizens against direct exposure to sun for long periods of time.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
329. Skyepony (Mod)
9:29 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
China has been getting some blob looking landstorms..

Extreme Weather in China on Monday, 02 June, 2014 at 03:40 (03:40 AM) UTC.
Description
A hurricane hit northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region on Saturday, leaving over 100 people stranded on a highway. The gale force winds also created a sandstorm, with visibility dropping to less than seven feet. Firefighters and highway traffic policemen arrived at the site with an armoured personnel carrier to rescue the travellers. They tied rope to the travellers' cars to help the passengers pull themselves into the rescue vehicle in the high winds. All the people standed on the highway were rescued.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
328. Skyepony (Mod)
9:27 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Landslide in Sri Lanka on Monday, 02 June, 2014 at 07:09 (07:09 AM) UTC.
Description
At least 10 people have been killed in landslides and floods in Sri Lanka, disaster management officials said on Monday. Seven people, including two children, were reported killed in the past 24 hours in landslides in Kalutara district, 50 kilometres south of the capital Colombo. An elderly couple was killed in a landslide on the outskirts of Colombo. Another resident in Kalutara district died in floods that have affected more than 1,000 families, the officials said. “We have called on the services of the navy and air force to rescue people marooned in floods while the army is helping to clear landslides,” an officer attached to the Disaster Management Centre said. Sri Lanka has seen heavy rains in the past two days, following a drought lasting more than five months.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
327. Skyepony (Mod)
9:26 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Extreme Weather in Iran on Monday, 02 June, 2014 at 16:32 (04:32 PM) UTC.
Description
heavy dust storm roared into Iran's capital Monday, blacking out the sun in a swirling cloud and tearing down trees in a squall that killed five people and injured 30, state television reported. The storm struck Tehran with winds of up to 110 kilometers per hour (68 mph), state television reported. Its report said the storm killed five people, while Iran's official IRNA news agency said it killed four people as winds hit 130 kilometers per hour (80 mph). The TV report said the storm broke trees and plunged the capital into darkness for several minutes. It said the storm caused a chain-reaction crash on a highway south of the capital with 20 vehicles and caused international flights to be cancelled. Air traffic controllers diverted several domestic flights to central Iran. Authorities asked children and the elderly, as well as those with heart problems, to remain indoors due to the dust. The TV report said heavy winds also engulfed parts of central Iran, but there were no reports of any casualties.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
326. georgevandenberghe
9:21 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting washingtonian115:
GFS push the time back..AGAIN!.I told you guys that instead of something materializing on the 27th of may to wait until June 27th for something to form.


What year??
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 17 Comments: 1625
325. nrtiwlnvragn
8:44 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 321. TylerStanfield:

Working on a blog for 93E. Going to wait and see if the NHC is going to declare it TD Two-E at the 5pm advisory before I post it though.



TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (EP022014) 20140602 1800 UTC


Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10875
324. weatherbro
8:25 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 314. sar2401:


Right. That's why you believed an ash by 123HD" style="border: none !important; display: inline-block !important; text-indent: 0px !important; float: none !important; font-style: normal !important; font-variant: normal !important; font-weight: normal !important; font-size: 14px !important; line-height: 21px !important; font-family: verb, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif !important; height: auto !important; margin: 0px !important; min-height: 0px !important; min-width: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline !important; width: auto !important; text-decoration: underline !important; background: transparent !important;">cloud at 30,000 feet could somehow be linked to the biggest eruption in the last 1,500 years. That's why you still don't know the tropopause averages 56,000 feet near the equator, not 30,000 feet. You no by 123HD" style="border: none !important; display: inline-block !important; text-indent: 0px !important; float: none !important; font-style: normal !important; font-variant: normal !important; font-weight: normal !important; font-size: 14px !important; line-height: 21px !important; font-family: verb, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif !important; height: auto !important; margin: 0px !important; min-height: 0px !important; min-width: 0px !important; padding: 0px !important; vertical-align: baseline !important; width: auto !important; text-decoration: underline !important; background: transparent !important;">more believe in AGW than my cat can fly. That's fine, you're entitled to your beliefs, just don't try to present it as neutral science.


Some estimates claim that the ash reached up as far as 20KM! If true, this could give us a Winter to remember. Plus I wasn't trying to imply that this eruption was just as bad as Mt. Tambora(which it wasn't). Just simply indicating that it happened in the same general area(Indonesia, around 8 degrees South). But your right about the Troposphere being considerably higher at the Equator as compared to the Poles(Especially the West Pacific Warm Pool where it is approximately 17-18KM high).
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1271
323. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:22 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 318. sar2401:


So did the game wardens give her a citation? It's not the bears fault that they want to get free food. It's this nice old lady's fault. That's why we handed out citations to people who were breaking the law. We have them all over the place here as well. Had one in town the other day that was eating up all the food people put out for feral cats. Until we get people to stop doing things like this, we'll continue to be overrun with bears and feral cats.


I have peeps doing same thing here

putting stuff out for the critters
I just pick it up as fast as they dump it
and put it in the dumpster inside the garbage room
also keep the lids locked so nothing can get in there as well
as long as I do that no problems
but I never had to kill anything and never will unless iam going to eat it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
322. sar2401
8:17 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting yonzabam:
So, what's the weather going to be like for England v Ecuador in Miami on Wednesday? As a Scotsman, I fancy having a bet on Ecuador. They'll handle the conditions better.

Hot. Sticky. A few showers, or possibly torrential rains and floods. Or no rain at all. Typical rainy season day in Miami. The real question - can England beat Ecuador regardless of the weather? :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13127
321. TylerStanfield
8:14 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Working on a blog for 93E. Going to wait and see if the NHC is going to declare it TD Two-E at the 5pm advisory before I post it though.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1094
320. weathermanwannabe
8:14 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
I would hazard a guess that it is about to reach tropical storm status:

Floater One AVN Enanced image
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8785
319. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:13 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
318. sar2401
8:12 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
but why kill them for looking for food

I bet there is some humans rustling in the dumpsters for food as well can we shoot them too

So did the game wardens give her a citation? It's not the bears fault that they want to get free food. It's this nice old lady's fault. That's why we handed out citations to people who were breaking the law. We have them all over the place here as well. Had one in town the other day that was eating up all the food people put out for feral cats. Until we get people to stop doing things like this, we'll continue to be overrun with bears and feral cats.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13127
317. weathermanwannabe
8:11 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
As we get into the E-Pac season in earnest, and the pending Atlantic season, while many obsess and focus on the longer term model runs, those rarely come to pass and the general rule of thumb discussed on here (and by Dr. M) is that anything more than 5 days out model-wise is fairly unreliable.  The short term-3-5 day runs are better.  And, for the real short term (24-48 hours), your own "eyes" are probably the best tool along with the basic current charts; the CIMSS sheer/vorticity charts, current ssts, the NOAA Satt loops and Hi-Rez imaging products, and reliable surface pressure readings from nearby buoys, ships, or recon.

With that in mind, minus real time pressure readings, 93E is looking very healthy at the moment.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8785
316. captainhunter
8:10 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
I had to chime in on the bear thread. I live in Panama City and we had a bear in a tree in a neighborhood a few weeks ago and FWC darted him, tagged him, and took him 40 miles away to be released in the Apalach National Forest. Two weeks later the same bear was back...in the same neighborhood...in the same tree. Rinse and repeat.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 430
315. StPetersburgFL
8:10 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 305. sar2401:


Well, that link didn't work. Maybe you can practice some more by clicking on "Preview Comment" and seeing if the link is actually any good next time before you post.


Maybe u should take that condescending attitude elsewhere. No need for that on this blog.
Member Since: May 7, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 139
314. sar2401
8:07 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting weatherbro:
My bad Sar. I meant to say the Tropopause not the Stratopause. I get those two mixed up. doe! Plus I don't doubt Man-made GW any more. I was just making an observation.

Right. That's why you believed an ash cloud at 30,000 feet could somehow be linked to the biggest eruption in the last 1,500 years. That's why you still don't know the tropopause averages 56,000 feet near the equator, not 30,000 feet. You no more believe in AGW than my cat can fly. That's fine, you're entitled to your beliefs, just don't try to present it as neutral science.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13127
313. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:07 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 309. washingtonian115:

From the CNN article that Georgiastormz posted

Don't feed the bears!
Wildlife officials also discourage the warm, fuzzy feeling some residents have for the black bears, pointing to the dangers they pose.
Wildlife law enforcement officers arrested an 81-year-old woman from Sebring in February for feeding loads of dog food to bears on her property.
She dished out up to 18 bowls at a time to furry bunches gathered in her yard.
The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission warned her multiple times to stop, but she would not, for fear the animals would starve without her.
Officers were afraid the bears would get hazardously close to humans, and they killed one bear that was frequenting her feedings.
Once a bear feels too at home among people, relocating it doesn't help, the FWC said back then.
It will keep coming back.

but why kill them for looking for food

I bet there is some humans rustling in the dumpsters for food as well can we shoot them too
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
312. washingtonian115
8:06 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Study finds that female named hurricanes kill more people then male named hurricanes because people don't respect them as much study finds.

From CWG
Link
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
311. Sfloridacat5
8:02 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Bear at Kismit Park today. Bears must be taking over Fl.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6092
310. yonzabam
8:01 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
So, what's the weather going to be like for England v Ecuador in Miami on Wednesday? As a Scotsman, I fancy having a bet on Ecuador. They'll handle the conditions better.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2894
309. washingtonian115
7:59 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
From the CNN article that Georgiastormz posted

Don't feed the bears!
Wildlife officials also discourage the warm, fuzzy feeling some residents have for the black bears, pointing to the dangers they pose.
Wildlife law enforcement officers arrested an 81-year-old woman from Sebring in February for feeding loads of dog food to bears on her property.
She dished out up to 18 bowls at a time to furry bunches gathered in her yard.
The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission warned her multiple times to stop, but she would not, for fear the animals would starve without her.
Officers were afraid the bears would get hazardously close to humans, and they killed one bear that was frequenting her feedings.
Once a bear feels too at home among people, relocating it doesn't help, the FWC said back then.
It will keep coming back.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
308. Sfloridacat5
7:59 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
From today's news.
For all the bear lovers. A local bear decided to use a Cape Coral dock as a diving board into the canal for a swim.
We've had bears run down the golf course in the middle of the day here in our neighborhood.

From NBCnews Fort Myers


img src="
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6092
307. sar2401
7:59 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I thought it was real.
Black bear enjoys repose in a hammock in Florida neighborhood

The same video that's been posted everywhere. Like I said, I didn't see a bear lounging in the hammock in the video, something I would have tried to get if I was doing a video. I see a nice clear shot of the bear in the hammock on a still. The guy taking the pictures had some really nice camera equipment. Maybe he does PS, maybe not, but the stills look faked to me. That fact the same shots are all over the net proves nothing, nor does my skepticism. However, remember the guy who's car was found 20 miles away after the Arkansas tornadoes? I tend to be skeptical of viral things on the net.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13127
306. washingtonian115
7:56 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Lol.The bear is just chill'in.I guess he's gonna take advantage of the state he lives in.I mean they do say it's paradise down there :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
305. sar2401
7:52 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting weatherbro:

Well, that link didn't work. Maybe you can practice some more by clicking on "Preview Comment" and seeing if the link is actually any good next time before you post.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13127
304. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:52 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
T.C.F.A.
93E/INV/XX/XX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
303. GeorgiaStormz
7:51 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 280. sar2401:


LOL. Worst Photoshop job ever. :-)


I thought it was real.
Black bear enjoys repose in a hammock in Florida neighborhood
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
302. csmda
7:50 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Ahh Florida black bears. They are NOT my friends. Before we moved here we were a little west and backed up to lots of woods. I was teased by my neighbor for chasing off a mom and her 3 cubs by yelling "you're a very bad bear" at her. She had come the previous night and made a huge mess! Another night a 500lb male had my lab backed up to my sliding glass door. That was my first encounter with a bear and I almost had a heart attack. My poor dog just sat there as still as she could possibly be. He was massive but that still didn't stop me from opening that door and getting my dog. I remember fish and wild life swore bears weren't that big in the pan handle. They got quite the surprise when they had to track him down and euthanize him. Biggest one they had seen in the area. He had a bad habit of sleeping on front porches. Just sad he had to be put down because people can't lock their trashcans and stop feeding them.
Member Since: January 1, 1970 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
301. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:49 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 296. washingtonian115:

Once you feed them they'll never leave!.
don't feed the bears or they will be on the couch in the living room when ya get up
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
300. weatherbro
7:49 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
My bad Sar. I meant to say the Tropopause not the Stratopause. I get those two mixed up. doe! Plus I don't doubt Man-made GW any more. I was just making an observation.

Some estimates place the cloud at 20KM.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1271
299. washingtonian115
7:49 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
GFS push the time back..AGAIN!.I told you guys that instead of something materializing on the 27th of may to wait until June 27th for something to form.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
298. sar2401
7:48 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Try again. True story and happened this weekend in Daytona Beach.

Summer in the Northern Hemisphere doesn't officially start until June 21, but last week in Florida a forward-thinking black bear got a head start on the rest of us.

Vincent James of Daytona Beach told WESH-TV he saw the bear climb into the hammock on Thursday and proceed to lounge like "a tourist or something."

According to James, this bear stayed in the hammock for about 20 minutes, relaxing and allowing a photographer to shoot several soon-to-be widely shared photos of the unlikely visitor.

Fellow residents have recently reported several sightings of black bears roaming the neighborhood, sifting through trash cans.

Officials with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission have been warning Floridians for months not to feed the bears.

In January, wildlife law enforcement officers arrested an 81-year-old woman in Sebring, Fla., after she repeatedly refused to stop feeding bears on her property.

According to police, the woman, Mary Musselman, was feeding the bears as many as 18 bowls of dog food at a time. One bear, captured on her property in November, had to be euthanized.

"A fed bear is a dead bear," Gary Morse, a spokesman for the commission, told WFLA-TV. "You cannot relocate a bear that's become a nuisance. No matter where you put them they're going to exhibit that behavior and the behavior will become worse over time to where it may be a threat to personal safety."

I see a very grainy video of this bear here. I don't see the bear lounging in the hammock in the video. I haven't seen the bear in a hammock on any of the videos online, just the still shots. I'm no expert, but look at the sharp cutoff between the bottom of the bear and white of the hammock. That's hard to reproduce at night. The bear clearly was wandering around the neighborhood. I'm not so sure he was really lounging in a hammock.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13127
297. rmbjoe1954
7:48 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 288. StormTrackerScott:


Someone should throw him a cold beer and some chips.


No. He'll never leave for the summer. He'll be entrenched.
8-)
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1207
296. washingtonian115
7:47 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 288. StormTrackerScott:



Someone should throw him a cold beer and some chips.
Once you feed them they'll never leave!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16409
295. hydrus
7:45 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 182. StormTrackerScott:

This is the best depiction of what appears to be a TS on the GFS thus far.

168hrs

If that were to pan out, the low would be over some very warm water.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20505
294. Sfloridacat5
7:45 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This bear is living the dream.



This bear video has been shown on the local news here in Fort Myers for the past few days. The bear does go all over the back yard and plays with the hammock eventually laying down in it for a short break.

He's probably asking himself "where's the hot tub?"
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6092
293. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:44 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 282. Envoirment:

93E sparking off some very strong convection the last couple of frames:




it is time 02E
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
292. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:44 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 287. WINDSMURF:

Login in for the first time this season. Lets see what this year brings in regards to Hurricanes. Last year was to be very active and we got nothing. This year is to be slow and we might be surprised. The only real prediction is that mother nature is in charge. A big hello to all and a big welcome to thoses who are joining this blog for the first time this season.
welcome back smurf
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
291. wunderkidcayman
7:43 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 282. Envoirment:

93E sparking off some very strong convection the last couple of frames:





Reminds me of Amanda when she started out
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11018
290. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:43 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 266. FBMinFL:

One certainty we can be certain of ...

Next week will be very interesting, albeit not nearly as interesting as the week after that.

Until, finally, it is December 1 and all the interest is behind us, except for that which lies ahead.
then maybe not or maybe it is D
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
288. StormTrackerScott
7:40 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 284. Jedkins01:



Not a photoshop, look it up and see for yourself.

Bears know comfort, especially Florida bears apparently.


Someone should throw him a cold beer and some chips.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2323
287. WINDSMURF
7:40 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Login in for the first time this season. Lets see what this year brings in regards to Hurricanes. Last year was to be very active and we got nothing. This year is to be slow and we might be surprised. The only real prediction is that mother nature is in charge. A big hello to all and a big welcome to thoses who are joining this blog for the first time this season.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
286. sar2401
7:40 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting yonzabam:


You forgot to add that was the story in the Independent on Friday

Doesn't matter. He's just another drive by poster. It's all part of the "Global Cooling" meme, aided by all these volcanoes, don't cha know? Anyone who thinks the stratopause begins at 30,000 feet knows zero about the atmosphere, except what he copied and pasted from a really crummy denier site.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13127
285. weatherh98
7:38 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Also something interesting to watch is that in general, the North Pacific is anomalously warm. (Developing El Niño, as well as a positive look to the PDO)
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
284. Jedkins01
7:37 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting 280. sar2401:


LOL. Worst Photoshop job ever. :-)


Not a photoshop, look it up and see for yourself.

Bears know comfort, especially Florida bears apparently.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7278
283. Thunderfan
7:35 PM GMT on June 02, 2014
Quoting sar2401:

LOL. Worst Photoshop job ever. :-)


It's for real. I saw it on local news. Google bear in hammock.
Member Since: April 14, 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 758

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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