Global Tropical Cyclones Shifting Poleward as the Climate Warms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on May 28, 2014

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Over the past 30 years, the location where tropical cyclones reach their maximum intensity has been shifting toward the poles in both the northern and southern hemispheres at a rate of about 35 miles (1/2° of latitude) per decade, according to a May 2014 study published in the journal Nature. Tropical cyclones include tropical storms, hurricanes, and typhoons. "Historical intensity estimates can be very inconsistent over time, but the location where a tropical cyclone reaches its maximum intensity is a more reliable value and less likely to be influenced by data discrepancies or uncertainties," said NOAA/University of Wisconsin lead author Jim Kossin in a NOAA press release. The researchers used data only from 1982 - 2012, the era when accurate global satellite data makes a full study of tropical cyclone intensities most feasible.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Hurricane Earl taken at 2 pm EDT September 1, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite. Earl's 140 mph Category 4 winds when it was off the coast of Northern Florida on September 2, 2010, made it the third strongest Atlantic hurricane on record so far north in U.S. coastal waters. Only Hurricane Esther of 1961 and Hurricane Connie of 1955 made it farther north in U.S. coastal waters at a higher strength. Both storms had winds 5 mph stronger than Earl--145 mph. One other Atlantic hurricane was stronger than Esther and Connie at a more northerly latitude--the second storm of 1922, which had winds of 150 mph. However, this hurricane was far out at sea, north of Bermuda. Image credit: NASA.

Causes of the poleward shift
The poleward shift in tropical cyclones was likely due to observed changes in vertical wind shear and tropical cyclone potential intensity over the past 30 years, which changed the regions most favorable for tropical cyclone development, the researchers said. Wind shear has been decreasing closer to the poles, and the potential intensity has been increasing (the potential intensity of a tropical cyclone depends upon the sea surface temperature underneath the storm and the amount of atmospheric instability, with warm air near the surface and cold air aloft giving higher instability and potential intensity.) Interestingly, these shifts were primarily observed in the Western North Pacific Ocean and the Southern Hemisphere's ocean areas. The North Atlantic Ocean and Eastern North Pacific exhibited only small poleward trends; the North Indian Ocean did not show any poleward trends. The researchers proposed that the poleward migration of tropical cyclones is linked to the observed poleward migration of the tropics over the past 30 years, since both have migrated similar distances. The causes of the expansion of the tropics are not certain, but a 2013 study led by Christopher Lucas of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research/Bureau of Meteorology, The expanding tropics: a critical assessment of the observational and modeling studies, found that including increasing greenhouses gases, stratospheric ozone depletion, and pollution in the form of small particles were likely to blame, with no single factor by itself explaining the full expansion.

Consequences
As tropical cyclones move poleward, some regions closer to the Equator may experience reduced risk of damage, while coastal populations and infrastructure poleward of the tropics may experience increased risk. With their devastating winds and flooding, tropical cyclones can especially endanger coastal cities not adequately prepared for them. Additionally, regions in the tropics that depend on cyclones' rainfall to help replenish water resources may be at risk for lower water availability as the storms migrate away from them.

References
Kossin, J.P, K.A. Emanual, and G.A. Vecchi, 2014, The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity, Nature 509, 349–352 (15 May 2014) doi:10.1038/nature13278

Dr. Kossin used a similar data set in a 2013 paper, Trend Analysis with a New Global Record of Tropical Cyclone Intensity, to show that the strongest Atlantic hurricanes that reached a peak strength of at least 112 mph (Category 3) increased in strength by 18 mph (8 m/s) per decade between 1982 - 2009. Globally, the increase in strength of the strongest tropical cyclones was much smaller, about 2 mph (1 m/s) per decade.

Dr. Kossin also published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". See my blog post on this paper here.

What the official climate assessments say about climate change and hurricanes
The 2013 IPCC report gives “low confidence”--a 20% chance--that we have observed a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes in some parts of the world. This is a reduction in odds from the 2007 report, which said that it was more likely than not (greater than 50% chance.) The IPCC likely took note of a landmark 2010 review paper, "Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change", authored by ten top hurricane scientists, which concluded that the U.S. had not seen any long-term increase in landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, and that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." The 2013 IPCC report predicts that there is a greater than 50% chance (more likely than not) that we will see a human-caused increase in intense hurricanes by 2100 in some regions; this is also a reduction from the 2007 report, which said this would be likely (66% chance or higher.)

The May 2014 United States National Climate Assessment found that “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Jeff Masters

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1049. Sfloridacat5
5:02 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting rayduray2013:

Perfect. I see skateboard action here.




I used to go to a park just like that one. I had 3 different half pipes (not all at the same time) with roll in plat forms, etc in our back yard. Then I got more into surfing because it doesn't hurt as much when you eat it.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6886
1048. sar2401
3:59 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting scottsvb:


Sar is 100% correct peeps. It's fun to look at the models, but don't take it seriously until the GFS and the EURO is showing a developed system 3 days out or so. They show something in 6 days, but where, how strong, and if it ends up being just a lot of rain, who knows... its again 6 days away from even forming if it does. For now, enjoy your day, go out, glance at the models but don't get excited about anything until at least Sunday or Monday.
\
Good heavens! Martha, fetch me my heart palpitation pills... :-0

EDIT: Darn. That one time someone says I'm right and it's time for a new blog. ;-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
1047. rayduray2013
3:41 PM GMT on May 30, 2014

Quoting 1015. scottsvb:



Sar is 100% correct peeps. It's fun to look at the models, but don't take it seriously until the GFS and the EURO is showing a developed system 3 days out or so. They show something in 6 days, but where, how strong, and if it ends up being just a lot of rain, who knows... its again 6 days away from even forming if it does. For now, enjoy your day, go out, glance at the models but don't get excited about anything until at least Sunday or Monday.
Scott, I completely agree with you. This blog's current obsession with what's modeled for 384 hours out is NUTS. :)

The only exception I can think of is the Left Hook that ECMWF and then other models predicted for Hurricane Sandy about six days out. That was valuable. What is being done now on this blog concerning what may or may not develop in the Atlantic ITCZ or the Caribbean is ludicrously excessive navel gazing.  (6 x 24 = 144 hours)

Similarly, giving any weight to the latest squiggle in the SST of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific relating to El Nino is also another example of excessive navel gazing. These systems evolve gradually. Reviewing the OZ BOM ENSO page once every month or so should suffice to give as good an indicator of the evolution of the system as does hourly obsessional buoy fluctuation reporting. The signal-to-noise ratio here is near zero. .

JOMO.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
1046. rayduray2013
3:29 PM GMT on May 30, 2014

Quoting 1014. LargoFl:

talking holes are we ..here's one in winterhaven..30 feet wide and growing in a mall parking lot..
Perfect. I see skateboard action here.


Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
1045. Xulonn
3:28 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
.
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1452
1044. Gearsts
3:21 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 992. wunderkidcayman:


Shear had peaked this morning at 0600Z this morning Shear is on a downward hill from then onwards
Atleast for the W Caribbean
Shear will increase as the upper low moves south towards the gulf then the increase convection will decrease the shear but just a bit, shear is expected to be high even with our tropical system there.
Also the biggest issue will be the massive mess with 2 areas of low pressure with the strongest one shearing the other and the competition of energy available for development.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1754
1043. rayduray2013
3:19 PM GMT on May 30, 2014

Quoting 1007. pottery:


Hmmmm.
Looks like my wall, after the Stuff hit the fan.
It is interesting to compare to the Southern Hemisphere's polar jet stream, which has a traditional orderliness to it's laminar flow:


Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
1042. wunderkidcayman
3:19 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 1035. cchsweatherman:



Just would like to make a correction here; when the CIMSS maps show the shear tendency, it is not a prediction, but rather a comparison between the last shear analysis to the current shear analysis. It does not always continue that rate of decrease/increase.

Thank you that is what I was questioning him about because I know shear tendency but prediction was not part of that
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
1041. pottery
3:19 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Hey, relax, guys.
No need to become so quarrelsome this morning.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
1040. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:18 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1039. Xyrus2000
3:18 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 996. rayduray2013:

Is it time to rename this the jet meander?





I can remember when we had a jet stream. Not we have a silly string in a blender.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1480
1038. cchsweatherman
3:17 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 1032. wunderkidcayman:


Flagged and flagged again
That is a blatant lie
Do do dot guess and make stuff up at all
Nor do I want a storm to form nor come anywhere near Cayman
How dare you you are darn nuts and should be ashamed of yourself


Flagged for not keeping it civil.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1036. pottery
3:16 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting LargoFl:
lol im sure there are police around there keeping people away...

And that's what's wrong with The World.
Young people, and particularly young Men, are being deprived of most of their natural tendency to be Adventurous.

How does one become the Alpha Male, when there is no elimination process ?
It cannot work, and it's an unnatural state of affairs.
Ever wonder why Hormones get confused ?

Now, I better run away………. :):)()
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
1035. cchsweatherman
3:15 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 1021. sar2401:


So, where exactly do you come up with your shear prediction then? You said "shear has been dropping and I expect it to continue.". I look at the CIMSS for current and predicted shear. I'm sure you understand what "predicted" means compared to what you expect. Indeed, assuming shear continues to drop, it's worth mentioning, but it's also worth a mention the current shear values and how much it's predicted to drop....and when.


Just would like to make a correction here; when the CIMSS maps show the shear tendency, it is not a prediction, but rather a comparison between the last shear analysis to the current shear analysis. It does not always continue that rate of decrease/increase.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1033. ricderr
3:14 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
I know that there are reasons for long range models, but for the sanity of this blog I wish they wouldn't go past 7 days. When I look at the GFS, I stop at 7 days. It peaks my interest when I see consistency at that point. I get real interested in consistency at 3-4 days.

same here...but there's that desires among many to be "first"...not to mention...the only thing they can decipher is a model...they don't understand anything else that they might look at
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21639
1031. ricderr
3:12 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Blasphemy.

If the GFS shows a system "shooting the gap" 7-10 days now ... you can bet it will happen, unless it doesn't.

"not trusting long range models" is just code for "if a model shows a system developing, even in the long term, I will bet the house on it" (especially if it goes right over it..lol!)


lmao.....darn right...and funny to boot......
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21639
1030. jrweatherman
3:11 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 1027. scottsvb:



True :)


I know that there are reasons for long range models, but for the sanity of this blog I wish they wouldn't go past 7 days. When I look at the GFS, I stop at 7 days. It peaks my interest when I see consistency at that point. I get real interested in consistency at 3-4 days.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 946
1029. FBMinFL
3:08 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 1015. scottsvb:



Sar is 100% correct peeps. It's fun to look at the models, but don't take it seriously until the GFS and the EURO is showing a developed system 3 days out or so. They show something in 6 days, but where, how strong, and if it ends up being just a lot of rain, who knows... its again 6 days away from even forming if it does. For now, enjoy your day, go out, glance at the models but don't get excited about anything until at least Sunday or Monday.


Blasphemy.

If the GFS shows a system "shooting the gap" 7-10 days now ... you can bet it will happen, unless it doesn't.

"not trusting long range models" is just code for "if a model shows a system developing, even in the long term, I will bet the house on it" (especially if it goes right over it..lol!)
Member Since: May 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 119
1028. wunderkidcayman
3:07 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 1008. sar2401:


I generally avoid holes by not starting them, and backfilling as quickly as possible if I'm foolish enough to start one.

"Generally" meaning you do end up in holes sometimes
Ok
Be careful
You might meet a sinkhole

Quoting 1013. nrtiwlnvragn:

NASA Widens 2014 Hurricane Research Mission

Excerpt:

The ISS-RapidScat instrument, managed by JPL, is slated for launch to the International Space Station in August. RapidScat will measure ocean surface winds in Earth’s tropics and mid-latitudes and will provide useful data for weather forecasting of marine storms.


Yay that good

Quoting 1014. LargoFl:

talking holes are we ..here's one in winterhaven..30 feet wide and growing in a mall parking lot..

Wow kinda reminds me of that one we had a few years back except no paved area not in a parking lot and certainly not near a mall

Quoting 1017. FOREX:

SAR and WKC, I was in such a sour mood when I woke up, but the two of you have me laughing out loud now. Thanks, I needed it.

Wasn't supposed to be funny but your welcome glad your feeling in a better mood

Quoting 1018. pottery:


I'm surprised the SkateBoarders are not out there, Ripping and Shredding, or whatever it is they do.

Lol
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
1027. scottsvb
3:05 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 1024. jrweatherman:



You are so right but no matter what, folks will post model runs in 3 hour increments from 7-16 days out warning everyone of an approaching storm.


True :)
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1689
1025. LargoFl
3:04 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38523
1024. jrweatherman
3:04 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 1015. scottsvb:



Sar is 100% correct peeps. It's fun to look at the models, but don't take it seriously until the GFS and the EURO is showing a developed system 3 days out or so. They show something in 6 days, but where, how strong, and if it ends up being just a lot of rain, who knows... its again 6 days away from even forming if it does. For now, enjoy your day, go out, glance at the models but don't get excited about anything until at least Sunday or Monday.


You are so right but no matter what, folks will post model runs in 3 hour increments from 7-16 days out warning everyone of an approaching storm.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 946
1023. LargoFl
3:03 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 1018. pottery:


I'm surprised the SkateBoarders are not out there, Ripping and Shredding, or whatever it is they do.
lol im sure there are police around there keeping people away...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38523
1022. ricderr
3:00 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Largo, the source of the low the GFS is now latching onto is completely different than the one that was already supposed to be a low today and was predicted for the last million model runs. The GFS will keep predicting a low somewhere in the Gulf nest week for the 6 or so weeks until it switches and starts predicting a low just to the east of the Leeward Islands for the rest of the season. The CMC will then fill in for the GFS and start predicting a hurricane in the Gulf every weekend. Seriously, enjoy today and start to worry about models when there's an actual low.



i'm telling you...gonna be a long season with all these people bowing in reverence to long range models......afraid the restaurant couldn't handle the volume of crow.....had to update to a factory operation....

Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21639
1021. sar2401
3:00 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I'm not doing anything plus if I ain't doing nothing I can't be doing it again

1 what makes you think I'm getting it from CIMSS
2 where in the world did you get "predicted"
3 CIMSS is saying that shear has decreased
4 yes at the moment shear is still high bit it ain't as high as it was before and it's gonna keep falling and as it does I'll keep on mentioning it

So, where exactly do you come up with your shear prediction then? You said "shear has been dropping and I expect it to continue.". I look at the CIMSS for current and predicted shear. I'm sure you understand what "predicted" means compared to what you expect. Indeed, assuming shear continues to drop, it's worth mentioning, but it's also worth a mention the current shear values and how much it's predicted to drop....and when.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
1020. Naga5000
3:00 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 1018. pottery:


I'm surprised the SkateBoarders are not out there, Ripping and Shredding, or whatever it is they do.


We have skate parks. :)

Seriously though, it looks pretty unreal.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3389
1019. wunderkidcayman
2:58 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 1006. ricderr:

Shear had peaked this morning at 0600Z this morning Shear is on a downward hill from then onwards
Atleast for the W Caribbean




wasn't that storm supposed to be here by now kid?


Do I have to repeat myself again and again

No
read back
#980
That would give you your answer

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
1018. pottery
2:58 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting LargoFl:
talking holes are we ..here's one in winterhaven..30 feet wide and growing in a mall parking lot..

I'm surprised the SkateBoarders are not out there, Ripping and Shredding, or whatever it is they do.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
1017. FOREX
2:57 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
SAR and WKC, I was in such a sour mood when I woke up, but the two of you have me laughing out loud now. Thanks, I needed it.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2293
1016. pottery
2:56 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting sar2401:

Hooray! Maybe all the hill fires will finally stop now.

Indeed. In fact we had some good showers early this week, which put the last of them out.
The mornings smell of wet fires these days.
A little like very old, wet socks.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
1015. scottsvb
2:56 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 1005. sar2401:


Largo, the source of the low the GFS is now latching onto is completely different than the one that was already supposed to be a low today and was predicted for the last million model runs. The GFS will keep predicting a low somewhere in the Gulf nest week for the 6 or so weeks until it switches and starts predicting a low just to the east of the Leeward Islands for the rest of the season. The CMC will then fill in for the GFS and start predicting a hurricane in the Gulf every weekend. Seriously, enjoy today and start to worry about models when there's an actual low.


Sar is 100% correct peeps. It's fun to look at the models, but don't take it seriously until the GFS and the EURO is showing a developed system 3 days out or so. They show something in 6 days, but where, how strong, and if it ends up being just a lot of rain, who knows... its again 6 days away from even forming if it does. For now, enjoy your day, go out, glance at the models but don't get excited about anything until at least Sunday or Monday.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1689
1014. LargoFl
2:55 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
talking holes are we ..here's one in winterhaven..30 feet wide and growing in a mall parking lot..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38523
1013. nrtiwlnvragn
2:55 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
NASA Widens 2014 Hurricane Research Mission

Excerpt:

The ISS-RapidScat instrument, managed by JPL, is slated for launch to the International Space Station in August. RapidScat will measure ocean surface winds in Earth’s tropics and mid-latitudes and will provide useful data for weather forecasting of marine storms.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11179
1012. sar2401
2:54 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting pottery:
NOW HEAR YE, HEAR YE !!

Today, May 30th, the Calabash Tree put out a Zeeelion tiny leaves.
The rainy season will be here very shortly.
It is Written, Signified and Portented.

Pear reviewed, too.

Hooray! Maybe all the hill fires will finally stop now.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
1011. wunderkidcayman
2:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 997. sar2401:


You're doing it again. The CIMSS has predicted a decrease in shear, although the amount of shear is still predicted to be relatively high even with a predicted decrease. See what I mean?

I'm not doing anything plus if I ain't doing nothing I can't be doing it again

1 what makes you think I'm getting it from CIMSS
2 where in the world did you get "predicted"
3 CIMSS is saying that shear has decreased
4 yes at the moment shear is still high bit it ain't as high as it was before and it's gonna keep falling and as it does I'll keep on mentioning it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
1010. pottery
2:53 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting Grothar:


I hope you grow big ones this year.

Since today is a Holiday (East Indian Arrival Day, 169 years ago) I will accept this with all due Respect and on it's Face Value.

The alternative would require a Response that may tax my brain…..

:):))
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
1009. LargoFl
2:52 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 1005. sar2401:


Largo, the source of the low the GFS is now latching onto is completely different than the one that was already supposed to be a low today and was predicted for the last million model runs. The GFS will keep predicting a low somewhere in the Gulf nest week for the 6 or so weeks until it switches and starts predicting a low just to the east of the Leeward Islands for the rest of the season. The CMC will then fill in for the GFS and start predicting a hurricane in the Gulf every weekend. Seriously, enjoy today and start to worry about models when there's an actual low.
well GEM and ECMF also pick up on it....hasnt formed yet,wont till possibly sun-mon..we'll see
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38523
1008. sar2401
2:52 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

There is no hole for me at this moment and I'm not digging
What about you sar look around you are there any hole careful you might fall into one then you might start digging

I generally avoid holes by not starting them, and backfilling as quickly as possible if I'm foolish enough to start one.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
1007. pottery
2:50 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting rayduray2013:
Is it time to rename this the jet meander?



Hmmmm.
Looks like my wall, after the Stuff hit the fan.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
1006. ricderr
2:50 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Shear had peaked this morning at 0600Z this morning Shear is on a downward hill from then onwards
Atleast for the W Caribbean




wasn't that storm supposed to be here by now kid?
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21639
1005. sar2401
2:49 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting LargoFl:
I dunno, ive been watching the gfs for 2 or more weeks now with this possible TS coming and im noticing a slight jog to the west now,coming in closer to New orleans area before moving ene....still a full week away and yeah hasnt even formed yet but more and more models are picking up on it........im thinking a weaker TS..but following a path more like Debbie did...up thru the panhandle area..............

Largo, the source of the low the GFS is now latching onto is completely different than the one that was already supposed to be a low today and was predicted for the last million model runs. The GFS will keep predicting a low somewhere in the Gulf nest week for the 6 or so weeks until it switches and starts predicting a low just to the east of the Leeward Islands for the rest of the season. The CMC will then fill in for the GFS and start predicting a hurricane in the Gulf every weekend. Seriously, enjoy today and start to worry about models when there's an actual low.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
1004. Grothar
2:49 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 1003. pottery:

NOW HEAR YE, HEAR YE !!

Today, May 30th, the Calabash Tree put out a Zeeelion tiny leaves.
The rainy season will be here very shortly.
It is Written, Signified and Portented.

Pear reviewed, too.


I hope you grow big ones this year.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
1003. pottery
2:48 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
NOW HEAR YE, HEAR YE !!

Today, May 30th, the Calabash Tree put out a Zeeelion tiny leaves.
The rainy season will be here very shortly.
It is Written, Signified and Portented.

Pear reviewed, too.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
1002. wunderkidcayman
2:46 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting 995. sar2401:


When you find yourself in a hole, the first thing to do is stop digging...

There is no hole for me at this moment and I'm not digging
What about you sar look around you are there any hole careful you might fall into one then you might start digging
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12035
1001. sar2401
2:44 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting rayduray2013:
Is it time to rename this the jet meander?



Yes. We should rename it "The flow chart for the seasonal creek behind my house in August" Stream...
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
1000. LargoFl
2:42 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
I dunno, ive been watching the gfs for 2 or more weeks now with this possible TS coming and im noticing a slight jog to the west now,coming in closer to New orleans area before moving ene....still a full week away and yeah hasnt even formed yet but more and more models are picking up on it........im thinking a weaker TS..but following a path more like Debbie did...up thru the panhandle area..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38523
999. sar2401
2:42 PM GMT on May 30, 2014
Quoting hydrus:
your are being sar-castic already..:)

You two are lucky I'm consarderant today.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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