Tropical Storm Amanda Forms in the Eastern Pacific; Not a Threat to Land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on May 23, 2014

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The season's first named storm of 2014, Tropical Storm Amanda, has formed in the Eastern Pacific. Amanda is over 600 miles southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, and is not a threat to any land areas. The arrival date of May 23 for season's first Eastern Pacific tropical storm is a bit early, compared to climatology. Usually, the first tropical storm of the season arrives on June 10, and the first hurricane on June 26. Last year, the season's first tropical storm, Alvin, formed on May 15, and the first hurricane, Barbara, occurred on May 29.


Figure 1. Friday morning satellite image of newly-born Tropical Storm Amanda.

Satellite loops show that Amanda has a moderately large area of heavy thunderstorms that are increasing in areal extent and intensity. WInd shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and the SHIPS model shows that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are a very warm 29°C, which is well above the typical 26°C threshold needed to maintain a tropical storm. All conditions appear in place to allow Amanda to intensify into a hurricane, and the official NHC forecast brings Amanda to Category 1 strength by Sunday. On Tuesday, Amanda is expected to turn to the north and encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters, which should weaken the storm.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature from average over the Eastern Pacific shows a large area of warmer than average water over the typical hurricane breeding grounds off the coast of Mexico. These warm waters will likely persist through the summer and into fall, due to a developing El Niño event, and promote a more active than usual Eastern Pacific hurricane season.

NOAA predicts an above-normal or near-normal Eastern Pacific hurricane season: 17 named storms
As is usually the case when an El Niño event is threatening, NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, is calling for an active season. NOAA expects there to be 14 - 20 named storms, 7 - 11 hurricanes, 3 - 6 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 95% - 160% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 127.5% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The outlook calls for a 50% chance of an above-normal season, a 40% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. El Niño decreases the vertical wind shear over the tropical Eastern Pacific, favoring the development of more and stronger tropical cyclones. Since 1995 the Eastern Pacific has been in an era of low activity for hurricanes, but this pattern is expected to be offset in 2014 by the impacts of El Niño.

Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1
The Atlantic hurricane season starts in just over a week, and the long-range GFS model continues to suggest that the Western Caribbean will be capable of brewing the season's first "Invest" during the first week of June. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently weak, but the latest GFS forecast predicts that the MJO will strengthen slightly in early June, and might be in a position to increase thunderstorm activity over the Western Caribbean then. While long range 10 - 16 day forecasts are notoriously unreliable, early June is a common time of year for the Western Caribbean to see a tropical disturbance form. Residents of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of disturbed weather with heavy rainfall beginning around June 1.

Have a great Memorial Day weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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2150. sar2401
3:41 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Well ain't that something

Miami discussion says W Caribbean



Where exactly does that discussion mention the west Caribbean?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16124
2149. TylerStanfield
2:48 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting 2131. sar2401:


Good analysis. As usual, the GFS is having trouble with the location of the low at 200+ hours. The simulated IR brightness pictures don't seem to match up well with a low that's supposed to still be south of the Panhandle/AL coast even later in the period. I would take a nice disorganized low pressure trough next week sometime. I'm just not very confident it's going to happen.

The system will likely get whacked by the Subtropical Jet as soon as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, which is why it appears that the system is further east on the Simulated IR.
252 Hours Out:


These images show this very well. The upper-level ridge, that was previously over the system in the Northwest Caribbean, becomes unaligned with the low which enhances the westerly wind shear over the system and causes It to become lopsided. It definitely reminds of Tropical Storm Andrea.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1347
2148. wunderkidcayman
2:47 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
12Z sfc chart are out tropical wave getting closer to SW Caribbean
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12163
2147. wunderkidcayman
2:45 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting 2136. LargoFl:

clipped from south fla nws discussion........................................ ......
MODELS THEN DIVERGE QUITE DRAMATICALLY BY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS
DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.



Well ain't that something

Miami discussion says W Caribbean


Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12163
2146. Patrap
2:44 PM GMT on May 27, 2014


CARIBBEAN

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND VENEZUELA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVES.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE SEA W
OF 78W. NW TO N STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THIS PORTION
OF THE SEA. ASSOCIATED MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING SKIES
GENERALLY CLOUD FREE THERE WITH ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MOVING
WESTWARD IN THE TRADES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. TO THE E
OF THE RIDGE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A RATHER SHARP AXIS
IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO STRETCH FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE SW TO 14N75W AND TO ACROSS NW COLOMBIA. A NE TO SW JET
STREAM BRANCH TO THE E OF THE TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS MOISTURE. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE SEA...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE SW
FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128703
2145. jrweatherman
2:43 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting 2118. wunderkidcayman:


Edited

I already answered that question in the same comment that you just quoted

More of a disturbance than a low for early part then Low for the latter part
There might be a surface rotation but not a fully formed low starting up around late 28th to midday 29th /- 6-9hrs
The low would form although may not be fully formed around late 29th to late 30th/early 31st /- 6-9hrs

Currently there is some decent vort in the SW Caribbean also there appears to be some slight rotation in the low level cloud field in the area the incoming Tropical wave will enhance this and the second tropical wave will spark the plug to create that low as NHC stated

The clouds will most certainly increase as the day goes on and for the next couple of days


Cat 4 almost very very very close to becoming a Cat 5


While there is always a possibility of something forming over the couple of weeks (some model support and climatology), I really don't see a low starting to form in the Western Caribbean by later tomorrow. There isn't any clouds down there.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 989
2144. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:42 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2143. wunderkidcayman
2:40 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting 2128. sar2401:


OK, so here's the very latest infrared picture of the Caribbean. Can you point out to me exactly where this surface rotation/not fully formed low is going to be in in 24 hours? Where exactly is this rotation in this existing lower level cloud field you speak of?

OTOH, take a look at the Mexican coast on the BOC. There appears to be some potential there of a low emerging from the coast into the BOC and interacting with the tail end of that trough over Texas.

Whoops, forgot the image...



Current rotation is very slight like I said
It around 10-12N 75-80W stronger with the W and SW flow weaker with the rest

I suspect the rotation would form the low further WNW of current area and it might be more that 24hrs maybe 36hrs

Quoting 2118. wunderkidcayman:


Edited

I already answered that question in the same comment that you just quoted

More of a disturbance than a low for early part then Low for the latter part
There might be a surface rotation but not a fully formed low starting up around late 28th to midday 29th /- 6-9hrs
The low would form although may not be fully formed around late 29th to late 30th/early 31st /- 6-9hrs

Currently there is some decent vort in the SW Caribbean also there appears to be some slight rotation in the low level cloud field in the area the incoming Tropical wave will enhance this and the second tropical wave will spark the plug to create that low as NHC stated

The clouds will most certainly increase as the day goes on and for the next couple of days


Cat 4 almost very very very close to becoming a Cat 5

Yeah sorry date slightly out of place
Rotation for the 29th maybe early 30th
Low for late 30th maybe early 31st

Look when stating dates for the model updates I ain't gonna give exact dates but rather a range dates and give an average date to give or take a day because you can't really hit the nail on the head when dealing with models sometimes

Quoting 2130. ricderr:

"Stuff" ?

pat.....hope this graphic answers your question





You probably still do right lol

I didn't mean stuff like that
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12163
2142. sar2401
2:36 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting ricderr:
beautiful weekend here in the borderland.......88 was the high yesterday with only a breeze....took the kids to our local amusement park......gonna see mid nineties and slowly rising through the end of the week.....gonna have to wait and see if we might feel a little of amandas presence...and then next week.....still early...but it might be heatwave time........not made up heatwave...but the real thing....4 days are forecast to be over a 100

Meh, it's always over 100 in El Paso. It only gets real bad when it doesn't get below 100 at midnight. :-)
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2141. Patrap
2:34 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Note the clearing opening between NOLA and the Squall Line.

That is going to Heat up and destabilize the atmosphere ahead of the energy moving East.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128703
2140. sar2401
2:33 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting LargoFl:
clipped from south fla nws discussion........................................ ......
MODELS THEN DIVERGE QUITE DRAMATICALLY BY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS
DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

What? The low is going to develop over the Yucatan, not the SW Caribbean? The Euro is not onboard with the Caribbean system? I guess those amateurs down in Miami just don't have this system nailed yet.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16124
2139. Patrap
2:32 PM GMT on May 27, 2014



National Weather Service New Orleans la
809 am CDT Tuesday may 27 2014

Update...
..sounding discussion...

No problems with the flight this morning. The sounding shows precipitable water
values are holding steady around 1.3 inches as a upper low and
rain in West Texas move towards the area. A very shallow layer of
increased moisture was noted in the lower 200 to 300 feet of the
column which has led to some patchy light fog across the area this
morning. That said...all locations are above 4 miles visibility now.
A warm nose was also noted around 800 mb with another saturated layer
around 20k feet. Winds are out of the south in the lower levels...
allowing moisture from the Gulf to stream into the area. Winds are
out of the west aloft.

98/so

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 527 am CDT Tuesday may 27 2014/

Synopsis...

After a nearly two week period of dry weather...a storm system
will bring showers and thunderstorms back in the forecast starting
today. A few very isolated showers have already occurred during
the overnight hours. Water vapor imagery shows an upper low moving
slowly west from the Texas Panhandle region towards the Red River
valley of far North Texas...and this low is fairly stacked down to
the low levels where a 1011 mb surface low is analyzed. A
subtropical jet extends from northern Mexico across south Texas
into the central Gulf Coast region where the upper flow is
diffluent.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128703
2138. sar2401
2:29 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
some stuff

Fair bit of stuff out there too. Did you finish your power washing? I still have another couple of hours ahead of me on the siding and I'll be done. I'm so sore I can hardly move after 8 hours yesterday.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16124
2137. GeorgiaStormz
2:29 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
SEE TEXT, SEE TEXT EVERYWHERE

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
2136. LargoFl
2:27 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
clipped from south fla nws discussion........................................ ......
MODELS THEN DIVERGE QUITE DRAMATICALLY BY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS
DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WELL SOUTH WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39302
2135. ricderr
2:26 PM GMT on May 27, 2014

some stuff


CONUS got her shields on full
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21758
2134. sar2401
2:26 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Moisture already starting to build in the SW Caribbean


It appears that the PW values in the SW Caribbean except directly along the coast, where there are almost always high PW values, has been decreasing. The area with increasing PW values is actually the Gulf of Mexico.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16124
2133. Patrap
2:21 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Lotsa GOOD stuff here for da "Season"

Hurricane Preparation 2014

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128703
2132. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:21 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
some stuff
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54450
2131. sar2401
2:20 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting TylerStanfield:
The last few runs of the GFS have been a little more aggressive with a potent monsoonal system developing out of the Southwest Caribbean and bringing it northward up into the Gulf of Mexico 7 days from now.
The system looks to be in a very similar predicament to what Tropical Storm Andrea had last season.
The GFS brings an anticyclone along with the low until it reaches the Yucatan channel and the Subtropical Jet. Once the anticyclone interacts with the Subtropical Jet, the anticyclone begins to lose it's alignment with the system and strong shear begins to impact the system. If the system were to survive the subtropical jet, traverse the Gulf of Mexico and hit the Gulf coast, whatever is left of it would be very disorganized as it will begin to interact with a trough of low pressure over the southeast as it makes landfall.



Only time will tell, but the likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Atlantic Basin is on the Increase. I would keep a watchful eye on this region over the next seven to ten days as the situation develops further.

Good analysis. As usual, the GFS is having trouble with the location of the low at 200+ hours. The simulated IR brightness pictures don't seem to match up well with a low that's supposed to still be south of the Panhandle/AL coast even later in the period. I would take a nice disorganized low pressure trough next week sometime. I'm just not very confident it's going to happen.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16124
2130. ricderr
2:13 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
"Stuff" ?

pat.....hope this graphic answers your question



Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21758
2129. Patrap
2:12 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 271100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N32W TO 01N33W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ AXIS. WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND TRACES OF LOW-
LEVEL VORTICITY AT 850 MB ARE NOTED ON GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IS LESS SCATTERED THAN
OBSERVED 3 TO 6 HOURS...AND IS PRESENT WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD UNDER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ATLC HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N55W SSW TO INLAND THE COAST OF
GUYANA AT 06N56W. THE WAVE IS ALSO MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. FIRST
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD BETWEEN 53W-59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE
WAVE FROM 07N TO 09N. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 07N E
OF THE WAVE TO 52W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N71W S TO INLAND VENEZUELA MOVING W
AT ABOUT 16 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
PATCH OF DEEP MOISTURE TRAILING THE WAVE TO NEAR 66W. 700 MB
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
12N16W TO 09N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 09N21W TO 04N30W WHERE IT ENDS BRIEFLY. IT RESUMES
AT 02N34W TO EQUATOR AT 40W...AND TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 01S49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 02N-07N
BETWEEN 25W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
JUST N OF THE EQUATOR TO 04N ELSEWHERE W OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC HIGH ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS IS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FEATURE OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY RIDGING ALSO IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 93W/94W. AT THE
SURFACE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY AND E-SE
FLOW OF 10-15 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE FAR WESTERN GULF WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TEXAS IS INDUCING SE 15-20
KT WINDS THERE. A JET STREAM BRANCH CROSSING THE NW GULF IS
AIDING IN THE ADVECTION OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF SECTIONS. ISOLATED STRONG TSTM
CLUSTERS EARLIER NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AND OVER
NE MEXICO HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS MOVING E. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS ARE FAIR WITH JUST
SMALL POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING TO THE NW UNDER THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND VENEZUELA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVES.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE SEA W
OF 78W. NW TO N STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THIS PORTION
OF THE SEA. ASSOCIATED MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING SKIES
GENERALLY CLOUD FREE THERE WITH ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS MOVING
WESTWARD IN THE TRADES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. TO THE E
OF THE RIDGE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A RATHER SHARP AXIS
IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO STRETCH FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE SW TO 14N75W AND TO ACROSS NW COLOMBIA. A NE TO SW JET
STREAM BRANCH TO THE E OF THE TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS MOISTURE. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART
OF THE SEA...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND MOST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE SW
FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH.

TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN...WHILE TRADES OF 10-15 KT ARE PRESENT ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DUE TO PERSISTENT E-SE WINDS ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. A SMALL POCKET OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS RECENTLY FORMED JUST W OF HAITI...AND OVER
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AIDED BY MAINLY A MID/UPPER TROUGH IN THAT
VICINITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER E. THE TROUGH SHOULD AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER SOME AREAS OF
THE INTERIOR PORTION THROUGH WED...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS
DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FILTER IN OVER
THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS AT 32N62W WITH A RIDGE WESTWARD TO A 1021 MB
HIGH OVER SE GEORGIA. A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY E AND
WEAKENING EXTENDS FROM 32N51W SW TO 29N55W...WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 26N62W TO 27N66W WHERE IT IS DISSIPATING TO
26N74W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N57W W TO
NEAR 32N69W...THEN SW TO A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT
28N73W...AND SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FROM THERE IT EXTENDS
FURTHER SW WELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE
IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT WHILE ALSO ENHANCING LIFT ALONG AND NEAR
ITS WESTERN SEGMENT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE QUITE ACTIVE ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
67W AND 72W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR SHORTLY AFTERWARDS.

A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 34N32W WITH A RIDGE
SW TO NEAR 28N49W. IT IS BRINGING FAIR WEATHER OVER THAT PART OF
THE ATLC. ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING
WSW ARE NOTED OVER THAT PORTION OF THE ATLC. A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N10W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W AND 60W WITH ITS MEAN CENTER AT 14N46W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 18N E OF 35W WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT IN THAT AREA KEEPING A CAP ON MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION OVER THAT AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AGUIRRE
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128703
2128. sar2401
2:10 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Edited

I already answered that question in the same comment that you just quoted

More of a disturbance than a low for early part then Low for the latter part
There might be a surface rotation but not a fully formed low starting up around late 28th to midday 29th /- 6-9hrs
The low would form although may not be fully formed around late 29th to late 30th/early 31st /- 6-9hrs

Currently there is some decent vort in the SW Caribbean also there appears to be some slight rotation in the low level cloud field in the area the incoming Tropical wave will enhance this and the second tropical wave will spark the plug to create that low as NHC stated

The clouds will most certainly increase as the day goes on and for the next couple of days

OK, so here's the very latest infrared picture of the Caribbean. Can you point out to me exactly where this surface rotation/not fully formed low is going to be in in 24 hours? Where exactly is this rotation in this existing lower level cloud field you speak of?

OTOH, take a look at the Mexican coast on the BOC. There appears to be some potential there of a low emerging from the coast into the BOC and interacting with the tail end of that trough over Texas.

Whoops, forgot the image...

Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16124
2127. Tazmanian
2:10 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
art you guys for geting some in right now the Caribbean is closed for any thing too pop up with this kind of wind shear all so the Caribbean has that EL nino look two it

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2126. Patrap
2:08 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
"Stuff" ?
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2125. wunderkidcayman
2:07 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Look there is not much going on right now but give it time and stuff will start happening
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2124. GeoffreyWPB
2:02 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
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2123. wunderkidcayman
1:56 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Moisture already starting to build in the SW Caribbean

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2122. Patrap
1:55 PM GMT on May 27, 2014


Carbon Dioxide Levels Topped 400 PPM Throughout Northern Hemisphere In April, WMO Says

Reuters

Posted: 05/26/2014 12:08 pm EDT


By Tom Miles

GENEVA, May 26 (Reuters) - Carbon dioxide levels throughout the northern hemisphere hit 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time in human history in April, an ominous threshold for climate change, the World Meteorological Organization said on Monday.

The 400 ppm level in the atmosphere, up 40 percent since wide use of fossil fuels began with the Industrial Revolution, is rapidly spreading southwards. First recorded in 2012 in the Arctic, it has since become the norm for the Arctic spring.

The WMO expects the global annual average carbon dioxide concentration to be above 400 ppm in 2015 or 2016. Rising concentrations of the heat-trapping gas raise risks of more heatwaves, droughts and rising sea levels.

"Time is running out," WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said in a statement.

"This should serve as yet another wake-up call about the constantly rising levels of greenhouse gases which are driving climate change. If we are to preserve our planet for future generations, we need urgent action to curb new emissions of these heat-trapping gases."

Almost 200 governments have agreed to work out a deal by the end of 2015 to slow climate change as part of efforts to limit the average temperature increase to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times.

Temperatures have already risen about 0.8C (1.4F).

In April, the U.N.'s panel of climate experts said that greenhouse gas concentrations, led by carbon dioxide, would have to be kept below 450 ppm to give a good chance of achieving the 2C goal.

The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is seasonal, since plants absorb more in the summer months, causing a peak in the spring. The northern hemisphere, with more human-related sources of the gas, has a more pronounced seasonal cycle.

Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. It is emitted by fossil-fueled vehicles and coal-fired factories and power plants as well as by natural activities such as breathing.

During the last 800,000 years, the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide fluctuated between 180 ppm and 280 ppm, and has probably not been above 400 ppm for millions of years, scientists say.

With the widespread burning of coal and oil during the Industrial Revolution, the concentration of carbon dioxide rose to about 290 ppm by the end of the 19th century.

That accelerated last century, with levels between 370 and 380 ppm by the year 2000. An animated graph that shows the history of atmospheric carbon dioxide is online at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/history.h tml. (Reporting by Tom Miles, editing by Alister Doyle)
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2121. wunderkidcayman
1:53 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting 2119. TylerStanfield:

The last few runs of the GFS have been a little more aggressive with a potent monsoonal system developing out of the Southwest Caribbean and bringing it northward up into the Gulf of Mexico 7 days from now.
The system looks to be in a very similar predicament to what Tropical Storm Andrea had last season.
The GFS brings an anticyclone along with the low until it reaches the Yucatan channel and the Subtropical Jet. Once the anticyclone interacts with the Subtropical Jet, the anticyclone begins to lose it's alignment with the system and strong shear begins to impact the system. If the system were to survive the subtropical jet, traverse the Gulf of Mexico and hit the Gulf coast, whatever is left of it would be very disorganized as it will begin to interact with a trough of low pressure over the southeast as it makes landfall.



Only time will tell, but the likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Atlantic Basin is on the Increase. I would keep a watchful eye on this region over the next seven to ten days as the situation develops further.

No doubts
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2120. ricderr
1:50 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
beautiful weekend here in the borderland.......88 was the high yesterday with only a breeze....took the kids to our local amusement park......gonna see mid nineties and slowly rising through the end of the week.....gonna have to wait and see if we might feel a little of amandas presence...and then next week.....still early...but it might be heatwave time........not made up heatwave...but the real thing....4 days are forecast to be over a 100
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2119. TylerStanfield
1:49 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
The last few runs of the GFS have been a little more aggressive with a potent monsoonal system developing out of the Southwest Caribbean and bringing it northward up into the Gulf of Mexico 7 days from now.
The system looks to be in a very similar predicament to what Tropical Storm Andrea had last season.
The GFS brings an anticyclone along with the low until it reaches the Yucatan channel and the Subtropical Jet. Once the anticyclone interacts with the Subtropical Jet, the anticyclone begins to lose it's alignment with the system and strong shear begins to impact the system. If the system were to survive the subtropical jet, traverse the Gulf of Mexico and hit the Gulf coast, whatever is left of it would be very disorganized as it will begin to interact with a trough of low pressure over the southeast as it makes landfall.



Only time will tell, but the likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Atlantic Basin is on the Increase. I would keep a watchful eye on this region over the next seven to ten days as the situation develops further.
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2118. wunderkidcayman
1:44 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting 2102. sar2401:


That's UTZ, so it's about 14 hours old. Do you believe there has been a marked change since then? If so, do you have a satellite photo that shows that?

According to your interpretation of the GFS, this low is going to be there between tomorrow and Friday, correct (28-30)? Do you believe this low will spring forth fully formed by then? Wouldn't you expect to see some clouds first, even some thunderstorms, especially in the tropics, from an incipient low?

Edited

I already answered that question in the same comment that you just quoted

More of a disturbance than a low for early part then Low for the latter part
There might be a surface rotation but not a fully formed low starting up around late 28th to midday 29th /- 6-9hrs
The low would form although may not be fully formed around late 29th to late 30th/early 31st /- 6-9hrs

Currently there is some decent vort in the SW Caribbean also there appears to be some slight rotation in the low level cloud field in the area the incoming Tropical wave will enhance this and the second tropical wave will spark the plug to create that low as NHC stated

The clouds will most certainly increase as the day goes on and for the next couple of days

Quoting 2103. AussieStorm:



Did Amanda get to Cat 4 or Cat 5?
I have been away sick.

Cat 4 almost very very very close to becoming a Cat 5
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2117. sar2401
1:39 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting MahFL:


Why would there be a sign, it has not formed yet.

See #2102 for my reasons.
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2116. AussieStorm
1:39 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting sar2401:

Sorry to hear you've been sick, Aussie. Amanda made a short run for cat 5 but missed it by about 5 knots. Blew up in two days from an invest to a solid cat 4. Pretty impressive. Looks like El Nino is underway for you regardless of if it's been declared yet.


Yeah, I think you're right about El Nino. Especially when you read news stories like this. Link

"In the millennium drought we might have had periods where we received half our average rainfall, (but) at the moment we have no rain contributing to our soil profile."

(The Millennium drought started in 1995 and continued Australia wide until late 2009)
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2115. sar2401
1:38 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting AussieStorm:


I think this is what Torito meant.


Ah, I see now. Too many lows to keep track off. As to what it might or might not be, I guess we'll see, but lows that try to follow the track of a major hurricane often don't do well.
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2114. Tazmanian
1:37 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
1st big fire of the season up here in this area and they are haveing too put up with very dry conditions for this early in the season this is going too be one heck of a fir season over here

Link
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2113. sar2401
1:36 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Duh it is not expected to form just yet but more closer to a couple of days

No, between tomorrow and Friday with Thursday being the midpoint. That's what you've been posting for several days. My point is I'd expect to see something that resembled some cloud and rain by now.
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2112. MahFL
1:34 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting 2076. sar2401:


So, no sign of that Caribbean low yet then. Actually, not much sign of any clouds yet.


Why would there be a sign, it has not formed yet.
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2111. Torito
1:33 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting 2110. AussieStorm:


I think this is what Torito meant.



Yeah, I meant that. :]
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2110. AussieStorm
1:32 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting sar2401:

I think that's the remnant low that used to be Amanda.


I think this is what Torito meant.

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2109. Tazmanian
1:32 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting 2103. AussieStorm:



Did Amanda get to Cat 4 or Cat 5?
I have been away sick.



peak at 155mph
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2108. sar2401
1:30 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting AussieStorm:


Did Amanda get to Cat 4 or Cat 5?
I have been away sick.

Sorry to hear you've been sick, Aussie. Amanda made a short run for cat 5 but missed it by about 5 knots. Blew up in two days from an invest to a solid cat 4. Pretty impressive. Looks like El Nino is underway for you regardless of if it's been declared yet.
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2107. AussieStorm
1:29 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting Torito:


Borderline cat 5, up for debate, I guess.

Approximate peak strength: 155mph



WOW she sure looks pretty. I guess we'll have to wait for the post-season reanalysis to find out.
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2106. sar2401
1:28 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting Torito:
Something trying to spin up to the south east as well?.. Maybe...

78 hours out.


I think that's the remnant low that used to be Amanda.
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2105. Torito
1:26 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting 2103. AussieStorm:


Did Amanda get to Cat 4 or Cat 5?
I have been away sick.


Borderline cat 5, up for debate, I guess.

Approximate peak strength: 155mph

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2104. wunderkidcayman
1:26 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting 2100. MAweatherboy1:

Amanda is definitely on the way out. This is a few hours old now and it was already looking a little rough-



Quite a way to start the season though, a huge ACE producing near Cat 5. Likely the first of many to come in what should be a very active East Pacific season.

Yep
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2103. AussieStorm
1:25 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting Torito:




Did Amanda get to Cat 4 or Cat 5?
I have been away sick.
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2102. sar2401
1:25 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

And another thing you do notice that the satellite there is old look at time stamp 19:00-23:00 26 May 2014

Yeah there is still not much there now but it's just a tiny bit more than what that one shows

As I said #2082

That's UTZ, so it's about 14 hours old. Do you believe there has been a marked change since then? If so, do you have a satellite photo that shows that?

According to your interpretation of the GFS, this low is going to be there between tomorrow and Friday, correct (28-30)? Do you believe this low will spring forth fully formed by then? Wouldn't you expect to see some clouds first, even some thunderstorms, especially in the tropics, from an incipient low?
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2101. wunderkidcayman
1:24 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Quoting 2096. Torito:

Something trying to spin up to the south east as well?.. Maybe...

78 hours out.



Nah
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2100. MAweatherboy1
1:24 PM GMT on May 27, 2014
Amanda is definitely on the way out. This is a few hours old now and it was already looking a little rough-



Quite a way to start the season though, a huge ACE producing near Cat 5. Likely the first of many to come in what should be a very active East Pacific season.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.