Record May Heat and Wildfires Continue in California; Extreme Flooding in Serbia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:13 PM GMT on May 16, 2014

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More record May heat seared Southern California on Thursday, and fierce Santa Ana winds continued to fan nine wildfires in San Diego County. The fires had destroyed at least eight houses, an 18-unit condominium complex and two businesses and burned more than 15 square miles by Thursday evening, causing more than $20 million in damage. Los Angeles Airport hit 97° on Thursday, which is tied for the hottest May temperature on record, said the NWS in Los Angeles (note, though, that NOAA's Threaded Extremes website lists the all-time May record for LAX at 91°.) All-time record May heat was also recorded on Thursday at Santa Maria (105°.) In Downtown Los Angeles, the mercury hit 102° on Thursday, falling short of the all-time May record of 103° set on May 25, 1896. Temperatures is coastal Southern California are forecast to be 10 - 15° cooler on Friday than on Thursday, and the hot offshore Santa Ana winds will no longer be blowing. This should allow firefighters to gain the upper hand on most of the fires. A steady cool-down will occur over the weekend, with a moist onshore flow of air significantly reducing the fire danger.


Figure 1. A wildfire burns near a home on Wednesday, May 14, 2014, in San Marcos, Calif. Flames engulfed suburban homes and shot up along canyon ridges in one of the worst of several blazes that broke out Wednesday in Southern California during a second day of a sweltering heat wave. (AP Photo)

100% of California in severe to exceptional drought
Thursday's U.S. Drought Monitor report showed grim news for California: 100% of the state is now in severe or higher drought, up from 95% the previous week. Though just 25% of California is classified as being in the highest level of drought, "Exceptional", Erin McCarthy at the Wall Street Journal estimates that farms comprising 53% of California's $44.7 billion market value lie in the Exceptional drought area. During the most recent California rainy season, October 2013 through April 2014, the state received 10.44" of precipitation, which is just 51% of average for the period, and the third lowest such total on record. California typically receives less than 10% of its annual precipitation between May and September, and the coming hot and dry summer in combination with a severely depleted Sierra snowpack will cause a severe fire season and significant agricultural damages. The fifth and final snow survey of the season on May 1 found that the statewide snowpack’s water content--which normally provides about a third of the water for California’s farms and cities--was only 18% of average for the date. Already, the 2014 drought has cost the state at least $3.6 billion in agricultural damages, the California Farm Water Coalition estimates. CAL FIRE recently announced it had hired 125 additional firefighters to help address the increased fire threat due to drought conditions.



Figure 2. True-color MODIS satellite image of Extratropical Storm Yvette taken on Thursday afternoon, May 15, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme Flooding in Southeast Europe
In Southeastern Europe, torrential rains on May 14 - 15 in Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina have caused some of their worst flooding ever recorded, killing at least three people and leaving thousands homeless. Extratropical Storm Yvette, a strong and slow-moving upper-level low pressure that cut off from the jet stream, lingered over the region for two days, pulling up copious amounts of moisture from the Mediterranean Sea and generating torrential rains. Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic declared a state of emergency in 18 towns and cities, including the capital, Belgrade. "This is the greatest flooding disaster ever. Not only in the past 100 years; this has never happened in Serbia's history," he told a news conference. "In three days, as much rain fell as normally falls in three months," said Goran Mihajlovic, of Serbia's Meteorological Institute. "Statistically, such rainfall happens once in 100 years," he added.


Video 1. A severed bridge floats down the Bosna River in Bosnia and Herzegovina on May 14, 2014. Here is a video of the bridge before it was swept away.

"Fishnado" in Sri Lanka
On May 5, 2014, residents of Chilaw, Sri Lanka were surprised by a rain of 50 kg (110 pounds) of live fish, 5 - 8 cm in length. MODIS satellite images from May 5 show an intense string of heavy thunderstorms formed over the island, and it is likely that one of these storms was a supercell thunderstorm that spawned a tornado which sucked up fish out of a nearby river and then spat them out over Chilaw. Such rains of fish are rare but not unheard of; as I outlined in my blog post on the ridiculous "Sharknado" movie that aired last year, there have been numerous reports of waterspouts or tornadoes picking up fish out of the sea or out of lakes and creating a "rain of fish." For example, hundreds of perch bombarded residents of the small Australian outback town of Lajamanu in 2010. In the U.S., thousands of small fish, frogs and crayfish fell from the sky during a rainstorm at Magnolia Terminal near Thomasville, Alabama, on the morning of June 28, 1957. Many of the fish were alive and were placed in ponds and swimming pools. An F2 tornado fifteen miles to the south spawned by the outer bands of Hurricane Audrey was likely responsible for getting the creatures airborne. William Corliss' intriguing book, "Handbook of Unusual Natural Phenomena", has an entire chapter devoted to unusual creatures and objects that have fallen from the sky. He relates that in 1946, a scientist at the American Museum of Natural History named E. W. Gudger documented 78 reliable reports of fish falls from all over the world. The largest fish was a large-mouthed bass 9 1/4 inches long, and the heaviest was a six pound fish that fell in India. There were no reports of large, 2000-pound great white sharks, as depicted by "Sharknado", though. Speaking of Sharknadoes, the much-anticipated sequel to "Sharknado", "Sharknado 2: The Second One" is scheduled to hit the air on the Syfy Channel on July 31, 2014. Yes, once again, bloodthirsty man-eating tornado-hurled sharks will terrorize a major American city--this time, New York. According to deadline.com, The Asylum, which is working on the sequel, has come up with a plan to use Indiegogo to raise $50,000 to create another scene for the new movie. Those who contribute to the campaign, which runs through May 30, will get some Sharknado 2 swag and an exclusive window on production, from behind-the-scenes footage to breaking news and advance DVD copies. Al Roker will make a cameo appearance in the film as himself.


Video 2. Villagers collect live fish that rained from the sky on May 5, 2014, in Chilaw, Sri Lanka.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Camp Pendleton Tomahawk fire (doppler11)
Camp Pendleton Tomahawk fire
San Marcos CA (wizard666)
San Marcos CA

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1163. Wolfberry
10:59 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1161. StormTrackerScott:



Don't worry Darby as I rolled out the iggy on em.

Rocket never roll it!! Keep the great posts coming Scott..have learned and enjoyed since you joined..
Member Since: April 1, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 205
1162. Tampagal
10:07 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1160. darbyderp:



wow, you seem like a horrible person. if someone said anything like that to me in real life, they'd be picking their damn teeth up off the floor. are you 12?

scott, i live in st. augustine, and i genuinely appreciate your contributions. you and the rest of the off season crew have helped me expand my wx knowlege in a friendly environment. so thank you, and please dont go.

this blog sure has been contentious lately. to that i say; sure is summer in here.

No, he'd be picking his teeth up in Ecuador.
Member Since: April 24, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 185
1161. StormTrackerScott
7:03 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1160. darbyderp:



wow, you seem like a horrible person. if someone said anything like that to me in real life, they'd be picking their damn teeth up off the floor. are you 12?

scott, i live in st. augustine, and i genuinely appreciate your contributions. you and the rest of the off season crew have helped me expand my wx knowlege in a friendly environment. so thank you, and please dont go.

this blog sure has been contentious lately. to that i say; sure is summer in here.


Don't worry Darby as I rolled out the iggy on em.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3325
1160. darbyderp
6:56 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1158. CarlitosAtun:



Waaaaa!!! Waaaaaa!!! I hype ever drop of rain and every model out 6 months from now and people pick on me! I'm taking my marbles and going home.


wow, you seem like a horrible person. if someone said anything like that to me in real life, they'd be picking their damn teeth up off the floor. are you 12?

scott, i live in st. augustine, and i genuinely appreciate your contributions. you and the rest of the off season crew have helped me expand my wx knowlege in a friendly environment. so thank you, and please dont go.

this blog sure has been contentious lately. to that i say; sure is summer in here.
Member Since: February 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
1159. Donteven
4:51 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1148. LAbonbon:



Scott, please don't be chased out. Yes, they seem to be harassing you. I don't understand it myself - there are folks on here I tend to not agree with, but I don't post endlessly to rebut their posts. Don't see the point in doing so.

You are definitely enthusiastic about weather, and steadfast and tenacious in your opinions...but so what? That's what makes this blog an interesting place.

Hopefully we'll see you back here soon.

I agree... don't let a couple immature people bother you. I live in C. Fl. and enjoy your take on things. There will always be bullies and haters, just don't let them dictate what you do. Thanks for your inputs.

Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
1157. sar2401
3:39 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting LAbonbon:


No, but in this case where real information is given (name of blog author, name of meteorologist, school, etc.), it's possible news media will pick it up/verify it/run with it. The date of the blog post is today, so we'll see where it goes.


Thanks, Bonnie. We shall see indeed. Seems a little odd to me. My record for lasts post before a new blog remains intact however. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16114
1156. LAbonbon
3:23 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1152. sar2401:


It is to me also but I can't find any evidence of this story outside a couple geophysical blogs. Nothing on any news service or other media, even in Toledo. Have you seen this story carried outside these blogs?


No, but in this case where real information is given (name of blog author, name of meteorologist, school, etc.), it's possible news media will pick it up/verify it/run with it. The date of the blog post is today, so we'll see where it goes.

Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
1155. rayduray2013
3:21 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Following the Japanese convention, we might consider their "El Nino Modoki" as the noun-adjective style of choice.


Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
1154. StormWx
3:20 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:
OK - so it's gonna be HOT in Florida starting this weekend until lets say October according to some individuals on here - Nothing new, it's Florida... Better get your A/C fixed. It's also going to rain during this time as well.

Additionally there's going to be an El Nino event. Unfortunately there's no app for that and Home Depot can't replace my hurricane shutters with El Nino shutters at this time..... But we'll manage...

Have in the past and will in the future


Good post, lol. FL in a nutshell: Hot in the summer. Wet in the summer. Oh and doomsday canes on every 15 day model outlook :o)
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 972
1153. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:19 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1152. sar2401
3:17 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting LAbonbon:


As an American this is so embarrassing.

It is to me also but I can't find any evidence of this story outside a couple geophysical blogs. Nothing on any news service or other media, even in Toledo. Have you seen this story carried outside these blogs?
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16114
1151. LAbonbon
3:15 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1144. rayduray2013:

NASA  ScienceCast: El Nino - Is 2014 the new 1997?







This is an excellent video. Thanks for posting it.
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
1150. FLGatorCaneNut
3:14 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
OK - so it's gonna be HOT in Florida starting this weekend until lets say October according to some individuals on here - Nothing new, it's Florida... Better get your A/C fixed. It's also going to rain during this time as well.

Additionally there's going to be an El Nino event. Unfortunately there's no app for that and Home Depot can't replace my hurricane shutters with El Nino shutters at this time..... But we'll manage...

Have in the past and will in the future
Member Since: July 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 183
1149. Envoirment
3:11 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Esa's Cryosat mission sees Antarctic ice losses double

Antarctica is now losing about 160 billion tonnes of ice a year to the ocean - twice as much as when the continent was last surveyed.

The new assessment comes from Europe's Cryosat spacecraft, which has a radar instrument specifically designed to measure the shape of the ice sheet.

The melt loss from the White Continent is sufficient to push up global sea levels by around 0.43mm per year.

Scientists report the data in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

The new study incorporates three years of measurements from 2010 to 2013, and updates a synthesis of observations made by other satellites over the period 2005 to 2010.

Cryosat has been using its altimeter to trace changes in the height of the ice sheet - as it gains mass through snowfall, and loses mass through melting.


Read more here.
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 860
1148. LAbonbon
3:09 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1141. StormTrackerScott:

I'm done blogging on here as there is just too much hate from a couple of individuals on here. All I do is post the models which say mid to upper 90's and if you think models are hype then so be it as I am done on here. I will stay on my blog however. Have a great day folks.


Scott, please don't be chased out. Yes, they seem to be harassing you. I don't understand it myself - there are folks on here I tend to not agree with, but I don't post endlessly to rebut their posts. Don't see the point in doing so.

You are definitely enthusiastic about weather, and steadfast and tenacious in your opinions...but so what? That's what makes this blog an interesting place.

Hopefully we'll see you back here soon.
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
1147. jpsb
3:04 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Maybe it's just selective memory, but I seem to recall this blog being a much more pleasant place to visit years ago. Yeah I know my sign up date is 2009 but I came here often in hurricane season before signing up. I recall lots of teasing and downcasting, wishcasting, fishcasting etc jokes. But I don't recall all the personal insults that seem common now. But like I said, might just be a faulty memory on my part.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1194
1146. ricderr
3:03 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Cya. Enjoy the upper 80s :o)


i rocked the 80's!!!



Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21758
1145. LAbonbon
3:02 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1133. barbamz:

Ohio Teacher Caught Telling Students That Alaska Research Project is Controlling The Weather
Posted by Dan Satterfield, 19 May 2014
Toledo, Ohio Meteorologist Ross Ellet got a real shock while talking to students at Star Academy Charter School last week. He’d been asked to talk to the students about weather and science, but he got a question that left him totally stunned. One of the students asked him “what kind of job will you get when HAARP is controlling the weather, and you’re no longer needed?”. Now, Ross knew what the student was talking about, because every on-air meteorologist in the country gets emails and letters about HAARP (and chem-trails) on a weekly and even daily basis.
Ellet asked the student who had told him this, and was floored when the student (along with several other students) indicated that it was their science teacher! ...

Whole story see link above.

(Of course, the HAARP league is out in full force with the Balkans flooding as well ;-)


As an American this is so embarrassing.
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
1144. rayduray2013
3:02 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
NASA  ScienceCast: El Nino - Is 2014 the new 1997?




Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 366
1143. StormWx
2:58 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I'm done blogging on here as there is just too much hate from a couple of individuals on here. All I do is post the models which say mid to upper 90's and if you think models are hype then so be it as I am done on here. I will stay on my blog however. Have a great day folks.


Cya. Enjoy the upper 80s :o)
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 972
1142. ricderr
2:57 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Northern Texas may see some decent rain totals...

hey.....here on the west coast.....we're planning for a tenth of an inch.....WHOOHOO...now that's rain baby!
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21758
1141. StormTrackerScott
2:56 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
I'm done blogging on here as there is just too much hate from a couple of individuals on here. All I do is post the models which say mid to upper 90's and if you think models are hype then so be it as I am done on here. I will stay on my blog however. Have a great day folks.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3325
1140. ricderr
2:54 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Thanks for the link Ric! Once again you are proven correct. It is listed at 0.4C, below the 0.5C needed for 3 months before we have an offical El Nino. My guess is not in June either. Im sticking with my guns and going with late summer. Besides thats the consensus anyways, late summer.

i'm still thinking july.....but you could be right
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21758
1139. yonzabam
2:54 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1133. barbamz:

Ohio Teacher Caught Telling Students That Alaska Research Project is Controlling The Weather
Posted by Dan Satterfield, 19 May 2014
Toledo, Ohio Meteorologist Ross Ellet got a real shock while talking to students at Star Academy Charter School last week. He’d been asked to talk to the students about weather and science, but he got a question that left him totally stunned. One of the students asked him “what kind of job will you get when HAARP is controlling the weather, and you’re no longer needed?”. Now, Ross knew what the student was talking about, because every on-air meteorologist in the country gets emails and letters about HAARP (and chem-trails) on a weekly and even daily basis.
Ellet asked the student who had told him this, and was floored when the student (along with several other students) indicated that it was their science teacher! ...

Whole story see link above.

(Of course, the HAARP league is out in full force with the Balkans flooding as well ;-)


HAARP's just a cover story to deflect attention away from what's really happening. The lizard people are warming the planet with phasar energy from invisible spaceships to make it more habitable for them, when they decide to invade. And our politicians are in cahoots with them. You're all sheep.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2929
1138. StormWx
2:54 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting hydrus:
Northern Texas may see some decent rain totals...


That would be very welcome there, a bullseye over the hardest hit drought areas.

Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 972
1137. StormTrackerScott
2:53 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1135. ricderr:

Your problem is that you are a old grumpy man. Plain and simple. You can never agree your wrong and thats simply stated.


neither old or grumpy........i'm just factual is all......i don't feel the need to hype anything..to make things out more than they are.....and i trust the experts.....


models say mid to upper 90's Ric that is no hype and you know it. It as if you and this stormW character are obsessed with me which is even more weird.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3325
1136. hydrus
2:49 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Northern Texas may see some decent rain totals...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21417
1135. ricderr
2:46 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Your problem is that you are a old grumpy man. Plain and simple. You can never agree your wrong and thats simply stated.


neither old or grumpy........i'm just factual is all......i don't feel the need to hype anything..to make things out more than they are.....and i trust the experts.....
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21758
1134. StormWx
2:45 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting ricderr:
ok,,,,,,,the latest weekly enso update is finally out,...you can read it here.....now you might have previously read that the 3.4 weekly value was at .5...however you can see on the cpc update...they have classified it as .4....also....you have also heard some report that el nino will be declared anyday now....well..actually..it was first mentioned over a month now....however...if you want to read how cpc calculates an el nino event...go to page 19 of the report


Thanks for the link Ric! Once again you are proven correct. It is listed at 0.4C, below the 0.5C needed for 3 months before we have an offical El Nino. My guess is not in June either. Im sticking with my guns and going with late summer. Besides thats the consensus anyways, late summer.

ENSO-neutral conditions continue

Chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65%
by summer
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 972
1133. barbamz
2:44 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Ohio Teacher Caught Telling Students That Alaska Research Project is Controlling The Weather
Posted by Dan Satterfield, 19 May 2014
Toledo, Ohio Meteorologist Ross Ellet got a real shock while talking to students at Star Academy Charter School last week. He’d been asked to talk to the students about weather and science, but he got a question that left him totally stunned. One of the students asked him “what kind of job will you get when HAARP is controlling the weather, and you’re no longer needed?”. Now, Ross knew what the student was talking about, because every on-air meteorologist in the country gets emails and letters about HAARP (and chem-trails) on a weekly and even daily basis.
Ellet asked the student who had told him this, and was floored when the student (along with several other students) indicated that it was their science teacher! ...

Whole story see link above.

(Of course, the HAARP league is out in full force with the Balkans flooding as well ;-)
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6032
1132. StormTrackerScott
2:43 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1131. Barefootontherocks:

Dang. Looks like Doc M got it wrong also, back when, maybe, "Modiokie" was invented.


I make that same mistake too.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3325
1131. Barefootontherocks
2:40 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting Neapolitan:
Someone should tell JB that it's "Modoki" (Japanese for "similar, but different"), not "Modiki" (that's a village in South Africa).
Dang. Looks like Doc M got it wrong also, back when, maybe, "Modiokie" was invented.
Science Daily link added
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18761
1130. StormTrackerScott
2:39 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1118. ricderr:

Also my post said some areas could reach 100 which possible given the WSW flow across the state this weekend. Instead you guys spun and said Orlando. Again crow will be passed around to and your troll friend stormWx. Have a great day Ricky.

scott...you did say some areas could reach 100...however the reason i brought up orlando was you said forecasts had it at 95....the best i could find was some odd ball site had it at 94...when i brought that up to you...you then brought up altamonte springs....maybe that's what you meant...but it's not what you stated...it's that simple.....


Your problem is that you are a old grumpy man. Plain and simple. You can never agree your wrong and thats simply stated.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3325
1129. yonzabam
2:38 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1126. westscotweather:

Temperatures overperforming the forecast again today, currently 20C/68F with some very humid showers in the area. Flood risk this evening from developing thunderstorms. The main risk however is an absolutely huge cluster of violent storms currently racing north from the Welsh coast: well over an inch an hour rain rates and hundreds of lightning strikes showing up on the map as they run through the wide open warm sector. 2-3 hours until western Scotland gets slammed, if they hold together over the sea. This is definitely a more mid-late June pattern.


Just as well I mowed the lawn an hour ago. You have to take your brief 'windows of opportunity' to do what our American friends call 'yard work', here in Scotland.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2929
1127. Tropicsweatherpr
2:32 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
The latest CPC weekly update and the Mid-May updates of the ENSO models and the % of El Nino you can see them at my ENSO blog.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14331
1126. westscotweather
2:32 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Temperatures overperforming the forecast again today, currently 20C/68F with some very humid showers in the area. Flood risk this evening from developing thunderstorms. The main risk however is an absolutely huge cluster of violent storms currently racing north from the Welsh coast: well over an inch an hour rain rates and hundreds of lightning strikes showing up on the map as they run through the wide open warm sector. 2-3 hours until western Scotland gets slammed, if they hold together over the sea. This is definitely a more mid-late June pattern.
Member Since: December 4, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
1125. ncstorm
2:27 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1107. rmbjoe1954:

Was the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane season a Modiki El Nino season then?

If Bastardi believes this year may become Modiki El Nino than all bets are off and I would expect strikes on the US mainland.


Yes it was..NOAA had predicted an ENSO season though..and well that didnt work out that way..

NOAA scientists are predicting ENSO neutral conditions (neither El Nino nor La Nina) through July. There is a likelihood these conditions will continue through the peak August-October months of the hurricane season. The main factors in the above-normal outlook are the active phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal signal and a continuation of warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions are associated with circulation patterns that favor an above-normal hurricane season.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15679
1124. barbamz
2:25 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1123. yonzabam:

Anyone else having probs with the site? Taking an age to load and refresh here.


Yes, it's slow this morning.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6032
1123. yonzabam
2:24 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Anyone else having probs with the site? Taking an age to load and refresh here.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2929
1122. ricderr
2:18 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
ok,,,,,,,the latest weekly enso update is finally out,...you can read it here.....now you might have previously read that the 3.4 weekly value was at .5...however you can see on the cpc update...they have classified it as .4....also....you have also heard some report that el nino will be declared anyday now....well..actually..it was first mentioned over a month now....however...if you want to read how cpc calculates an el nino event...go to page 19 of the report
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21758
1121. ricderr
2:11 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
97 Saturday
94 Sunday.

Also my post said some areas could reach 100



nwc has you about 4 pops lighter......we can catch up on this friday...LOL
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21758
1120. StormWx
2:10 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
415 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED
SOUTH AND WEST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE NEAR THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO
WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF AND THEN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE INTRODUCED 20 POPS AT THIS TIME. BY
SUNDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS IS IN THE VICINITY HELPING TO
INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE GONE WITH 20 POPS NEAR
THE COAST AND 30 PERCENT INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
CLOSE TO THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S
INLAND.
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 972
1119. barbamz
2:09 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Hope everybody enjoys a nice Monday; in the Balkans not so much I guess. Though waters are receding in some areas the gauge level forecast for capital Belgrad looks like a slow motion threat for the next days:


Source.

Overview of all stations in Serbia.


Published 19.05.2014 :Landslides have added to the misery of the worst floods in the Balkans in decades, which have killed over 35 people and forced the evacuations of tens of thousands in Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina. In Bosnia some 300 avalanches were reported, mostly in the northeast, as the saturated ground gave way and buried homes.

Longer and commented report video, which isn't on youtube yet:

Call for help from the Balkans as landslides add to flood misery

Euronews, 19/05 12:10 CET

In this German video at 1:25 one of these awful old landmines is shown, washed into a man's garden:
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6032
1118. ricderr
2:06 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Also my post said some areas could reach 100 which possible given the WSW flow across the state this weekend. Instead you guys spun and said Orlando. Again crow will be passed around to and your troll friend stormWx. Have a great day Ricky.

scott...you did say some areas could reach 100...however the reason i brought up orlando was you said forecasts had it at 95....the best i could find was some odd ball site had it at 94...when i brought that up to you...you then brought up altamonte springs....maybe that's what you meant...but it's not what you stated...it's that simple.....
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21758
1117. ncstorm
2:06 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1115. Neapolitan:

Someone should tell JB that it's "Modoki" (Japanese for "similar, but different"), not "Modiki" (that's a village in South Africa).


he has a twitter account..be my guest..would be interesting to see you guys finally exchange some real discussion..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15679
1116. StormWx
2:05 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


97 Saturday
94 Sunday.

Also my post said some areas could reach 100


Local Orlando Forecast

Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 972
1115. Neapolitan
2:03 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting ncstorm:
Please dont shoot the messenger..JB is seeing a Modoki..

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

@BigJoeBastardi The warm water near Australia lowers pressures in mean, preventing robust coupling of SOI with warmer water further e


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

Model in Agreement with us ( most are) warm water patch winds up in enso 3.4, right where 09/02 were! NOT 1997 pic.twitter.com/paeQibQRdC

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

If Jamstec is right, kiss any chance of Super Nino bye as it leaves warm water around Australia. Modiki on the way!
Someone should tell JB that it's "Modoki" (Japanese for "similar, but different"), not "Modiki" (that's a village in South Africa).
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
1114. jpsb
2:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1096. ncstorm:

Please dont shoot the messenger.


let me know how that works out for ya.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1194
1113. Tazmanian
1:59 PM GMT on May 19, 2014
Quoting 1111. StormTrackerScott:



Everything is nearly the same. Really no changes from last week.

Also the CFSv2 update and the numbers came down from 1.7C last week to 1.4C this week however this keeps going back and forth on either side of 1.5C every week.





am starting too think that if we do get EL nino it will be a weak two mod EL nino

2 we dont see EL nino fourm and we start heading back too LA nino wish i dont see happening


or 3 i jump on the Modiki banwagen wish am not yet and we see a Modiki EL nino this year then a norml EL nino but am going to give # 3 a few more moths be for i start to be leve that will see a Modiki EL nino this year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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