Super Typhoon Haiyan Storm Surge Survey Finds High Water Marks 46 Feet High

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:47 PM GMT on May 08, 2014

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Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan, with satellite-estimated winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall on November 8, 2013, pushed a massive storm surge of up to 23 feet (7 meters) into Tacloban, Philippines, newly-published storm surge survey results reveal. A team of researchers led by Yoshimitsu Tajima of the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of Tokyo found that at Haiyan's initial landfall point on the east coast of Samar Island, massive waves on top of the storm surge crashed against the coast, creating high water marks an astonishing 46 feet (14.1 meters) above mean sea level--some of the highest high-water marks ever recorded from a tropical cyclone. The world record is 13 - 14.6 meters (43 - 48 feet) from Australia's March 5, 1899 Bathurst Bay Cyclone. The greatest storm surge and high water mark recorded in an Atlantic hurricane are from Hurricane Katrina of 2005, which had a peak storm surge in Pass Christian, Mississippi of 27.8 feet (8.46 meters). The sea bottom was very flat in this region, so the waves on top of the surge were relatively small, and the highest high water mark from Katrina was just a few inches higher, at 28 feet (8.53 meters.) When deep water lies just offshore, as is the case for the east coast of the Philippines' Samar Island, huge waves will develop when the eyewall of an intense tropical cyclone moves over. These huge waves broke very close to shore during Haiyan, and were able to run-up the steep hillsides to incredible heights.


Figure 1. High water marks (in meters) in the wake of Super Typhoon Haiyan's storm surge in the Philippines on November 8, 2013. Numbers with "V" had significant waves on top of the storm surge; "R" indicates wave run-up height (where waves on top of the surge allowed the water to run-up onto shore much higher than the actual surge height), and symbols without letters are still water inundation (storm surge) heights. The high water marks are corrected for the tide levels at the time of the survey (tidal range in the Central Philippines is generally less than 1 meter, so this is a small correction in most cases.) The data is plotted from the survey results of Tajima et al., 2014.

Results of the storm surge survey
Andrew Kennedy, Associate Professor in Notre Dame's Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering & Earth Sciences, was part of a second Super Typhoon Haiyan storm surge survey done in January 2014 (whose results have not yet been published), and wrote this email to me: "We surveyed many locations concentrating on the open Pacific coast of Eastern Samar, just north of first landfall. The team was led by Professor Yoshimitsu Tajima of the University of Tokyo. We are still processing results, but found many locations with wave run-up in the 9 - 10 meter range. These waves and surge tossed palm trees, large boulders, and other debris up to elevations that would seem improbable if you had not seen the evidence. The communities affected by this storm remain devastated, and there is still no power in Guiuan, the largest city in Eastern Samar and our base for part of the survey.  In addition to the inundation, we also looked a lot at damage--mainly from waves and surge, but partly from wind. This included the small Barangay (town) of Hernani, the location of the frightening Nixon Gensis video showing waves washing away a house. We interviewed many people both in Hernani and other locations who described similar experiences of very sudden destructive inundation. I will say it again: ten meter run-up is hard to believe if you haven’t seen it."


Video 1. Nickson Gensis, Plan Philippines Community Development Worker, filmed what is probably the most remarkable video of storm surge ever taken. The video was taken from the from the top floor of a boarding house during Super Typhoon Haiyan in Hernani, in Eastern Samar, Philippines on November 8, 2013. Australian tropical cyclone expert Bruce Harper had this to say about the remarkable "tsunami-like" storm surge observed at 46 seconds into the video: This site at Hernani is quite exposed on the eastern coast of Samar, and has a fringing reef. My guess is that we are seeing the sudden exposure to deep water ocean swell waves that were triggered by the tide and sea level increase due to the storm surge. There is a critical water level where waves impacting on reefs can suddenly cause a massive increase in wave setup in the form of a tsunami-like effect such as we see in the video. A similar effect was reported at Basey, ten miles to the northeast of Tacloban across the San Juanico Strait, in this news report: "Edgar dela Cruz, 45, of Barangay Mercado, recounted to The STAR the sight of what looked like a tsunami. During the strange lull in the typhoon, he went out of his house. Jinamok Island was a kilometer across the sea from his village, he said. The sea receded about halfway to the island. 'There was a kind of low black cloud moving toward us,' Dela Cruz said. 'We heard a loud boom, like an explosion. And then we saw the giant waves--four giant waves--it was horrible.' Their house was destroyed. He said he and his family escaped with only the clothes on their backs." In this case, the reports suggest that northeast winds ahead of the center of Haiyan caused an initial “negative surge” effect in the shallow waters in this area, followed by the winds turning to E and SE as the center came closer. You can then develop quite a gradient in the water levels capable of producing this effect. The fast speed of the storm may also have contributed to this specific phenomenon. Yao Zhang of Notre Dame's Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering & Earth Sciences has modeled the waves and surge at Hernani, Eastern Samar, using a one-dimensional Boussinesq model. These show periodic surges and recessions very similar to those seen by Nickson Gensis. Magnitudes are quite large--over 5 meters--which does not include any initial storm surge. The simulations are not perfectly accurate, due to the lack of perfect bathymetry and incident waves. A video of one of his model runs may be seen at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPYGQCE3778. The middle plot is a zoomed-in version of the larger-scale version shown in the top panel.


Figure 2. Storm surge damage from Super Typhoon Haiyan on Victory Island, Samar. Image credit: Getty Images.

A deadly storm surge for Tacloban
Tacloban (population 221,000) is the largest city on the Philippines' east coast, and is low-lying, with much of the city at less than ten feet elevation. Its position at the pointy end of a funnel-shaped bay makes its location particularly vulnerable to storm surge, since the topography acts to concentrate water at the apex of the funnel. The storm surge in Tacloban from Haiyan ranged from 4.6 - 7.0 meters (15 - 23 feet) according to the survey results, and caused catastrophic loss of life. An April 17, 2014 report from the Philippine National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council listed 7,361 people dead or missing from Haiyan, making the typhoon the deadliest disaster in Philippine history. Most of these deaths occurred due to the storm surge in the Tacloban region. According to storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham, the record highest storm surge in modern history in East Asia was 24 feet (7.3 meters) in 1897 on Samar Island, Philippines--the same location where Haiyan initially hit.


Video 2. This animation by Deltares shows computed storm surge levels and wind vectors as Super Typhoon Haiyan makes landfall near Tacloban City, The Philippines. Surge levels were computed using Delft3D two days after landfall. The wind fields are based on Joint Typhoon Warning Center data, and generated a simulated storm surge of over 16.4 feet (5 meters) for Tacloban.

Links
Tajima, Y., et al., 2014, Initial Report of JSCE-PICE Joint Survey on the Storm Surge Disaster caused by Typhoon Haiyan, Coastal Engineering Journal Volume 56, Issue 01, March 2014.

A detailed look at Haiyan's storm surge, my December 2013 blog post.

(An interesting side note: I talked to a journalist who traveled to Eastern Samar after Haiyan hit. She talked to a worker who sheltered at the radar site in Guiuan that had its radome blown off during the height of the storm. The worker reported that they measured a pressure of 892 mb as the eye passed over. I haven't heard anything official out of the Philippines about this measurement, though, and the official landfalling pressure of Haiyan remains the 895 mb estimated via satellite by the Japan Meteorological Agency.)


Video 3. Palo, Philippines, located just south of Tacloban, was located in a more intense part of the eyewall of Super Typhoon Haiyan, as is evident by the remarkable extreme winds and storm surge captured in this video. According to storm chaser Josh Morgerman, the most extreme damage occurred a little farther south than Palo, in Tolosa and Tanauan.


Video 4. The storm surge in Tacloban, Philippines during the landfall of Super Typhoon Haiyan is captured at about the 3:30 - 4:20 mark in this video shot by ABSCBN News of the Philippines.

My next post will be Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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1884. vis0
9:00 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
RE:TO:
pg37-1849. StormTrackerScott
2:15 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
(Can't get Quote, my fault my connection too slow)



Though my memory (since a kid) is bad, one of the things that stuck in my mind was watching TwCh that
evening in NYC.  One of the Heads of TwCh at the severe storm desk responds to Mrs. Lisa Mozer (On air
personality...met???) asking for a 2nd time are you sure we should not watch for these (as Lisa pointed
to the upper-middle area of the pan handle) clusters. The reply by TwCh head (a top meteorologist) was not
to worry maybe some strong winds, NOT blaming anyone but it shows how fickle we think nature is, but
nature is just being naturally unpredictable thus we should always be aware and have NOAA TONE alert
(as StormTrackerScott NOTED) on for those sudden changes. Hope to post more LP videos of Twch,
being i'm on 52k and youtube stopped ones ability to continue uploading broken uploads i can only upload
12 hours at a time which is a 40 minute .mp4 of okay quality.

 (i've posted on the webnet since (1981 via SUNY) 1992 using several user names as of late as WxRetro
different varieties of wxPresentation clips. From "WxBabes" to serious 30 min. to 60 min. VIDs of the
late1970s-1980s (Dr. Frank Field), 1990s NYC OCM & 1988-2001weather predictions/Satellite maps
mostly of TwcH and it might include this clip, of course i post . )
Member Since: December 15, 2006 Posts: 247 Comments: 430
1883. Dakster
6:27 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1861. Tazmanian:

hurricane season is a bust this year if you want too track moster storms look in the E PAC and W PAC


Good News - Taz says this year is a bust. No need to buy windstorm insurance this year...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10392
1882. MiamiNative
4:01 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Like the snow birds, the season nears and I have returned. I even remembered my ID and password so I did not have to create a new one this year.

http://www.local10.com/news/gov-rick-scott-to-sig n-bill-for-3-sales-tax-holidays/25931462 Nine days of tax free shopping for hurricane supplies in Florida.

I hope everyone is well and I look forward to some interesting, and informative discussions.
Member Since: July 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
1881. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:01 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1880. LongIslandBeaches
3:59 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1870. Patrap:

Carl Hiaasen

Don't be impressed just because 240 "experts" contributed to this melodramatic report. The tea party has experts, too, and they assure me it's all hogwash.

Is the planet a hotter place than it was 200 years ago? Yes, but only by a couple of degrees. Did most of the temperature rise occur since 1970? Yes, but don't blame coal-burning plants or auto emissions.

Maybe the sun is getting closer to the Earth. Ever think of that? Or the Earth is moving closer to the sun? Let's get some brainiacs to investigate that possibility!


Oh boy... gotta love incendiary writing - no matter which side of the debate you fall on.
Member Since: May 2, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 46
1879. washingtonian115
3:54 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
On second thought I will just stay in the office and head down to the cafeteria :(.

"Cluster of showers/storms in West Virginia is holding together fairly well and short-term modeling now indicates an increased chance of showers and storms early this afternoon. I’m increasing the chance of rain to 50 percent east of I-95 and 60 percent west of I-95."
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17063
1878. washingtonian115
3:48 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1876. Bluestorm5:



Honestly, I think it'll be inactive season either way. Atlantic is lacking energy this year and Cape Verde is in a terrible shape.
I think that if it wasn't for el nino it wouldn't matter so much for the cape verde anyway because like you said it's in bad shape.But look at 2005.As active as it was the cape season was horrid and only produced one storm if memory serves me correctly.But it was the storms that formed close to land that were the problems.Rita,and katrina originated out of the Bahamas and we all know the story....

Point I'm trying to make is that all the warm water is bundled close to land this year "The south-east coast and the caribbean".So if shear conditions were to let up then we may have problems.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17063
1877. LargoFl
3:44 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
354 AM MDT MON MAY 12 2014

...WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR NORTHWEST PLATEAU...LOWER CHAMA RIVER
VALLEY AND SANTA FE METRO...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THE COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

NMZ501-517-518-522-523-528-529-531-122200-
/O.UPG.KABQ.FZ.A.0004.140513T0300Z-140513T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KABQ.FZ.W.0006.140513T0300Z-140513T1800Z/
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
ESTANCIA VALLEY-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-
354 AM MDT MON MAY 12 2014

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
TUESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION...NORTHWEST PLATEAU...LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY...
SANTA FE METRO AREA...ESTANCIA VALLEY...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS...AND HARDING COUNTY.

* TIMING...AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME
TODAY...READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
LATE TONIGHT THEN PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM 28 TO 33 DEGREES.

* LOCAL IMPACTS...TENDER VEGETATION AND ANIMAL DRINKING WATER
MAY FREEZE. EXPOSED PLUMBING OR IRRIGATION MAY ALSO FREEZE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A FREEZE WARNING MEANS FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY.

&&

$$

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38982
1876. Bluestorm5
3:44 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1871. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I'm not going to make any claims to how active or not so active this season will be, not after what happened last year. By August we should have a better idea. Still fun to look at all the models and weather charts and analyze them. Waiting on the bell to ring to officially declare El Nino.


Honestly, I think it'll be inactive season either way. Atlantic is lacking energy this year and Cape Verde is in a terrible shape.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8025
1875. pottery
3:43 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting CaribBoy:





A somewhat wet trade wind flow, I won't complain. It's May after all.

Hey, what's my boat doing there?
I told the crew to meet me in Mustique.
I guess this is what I get for only employing chicks with dubious references but nice photos.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24369
1874. washingtonian115
3:41 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
My allergies are better than they were a week ago when those stick'in trees were still in bloom mode.I can breath more clearly now.It's a nice day so I'm thinking about going to the wharf for lunch.It's breezier by the water than it is inland.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17063
1873. JRRP
3:38 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
so the forecast was good with the first tropical wave
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5958
1872. Patrap
3:25 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
NASA Hosts Media Teleconference on West Antarctic Ice Sheet Findings

May 9, 2014

MEDIA ADVISORY M14-091

NASA Hosts Media Teleconference on West Antarctic Ice Sheet Findings

NASA will host a media teleconference at 12:30 p.m. EDT Monday, May 12, to discuss new research results on the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and its potential contribution to future sea level rise.
The briefing participants are:

-- Eric Rignot, professor of Earth system science at the University of California Irvine, and glaciologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California;

-- Sridhar Anandakrishnan, professor of geosciences at Pennsylvania State University, University Park; and,
-- Tom Wagner, cryosphere program scientist with the Earth Science Division of NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington.

For dial-in information, media should email their name, affiliation and telephone number to Steve Cole at stephen.e.cole@nasa.gov no later than 11:30 a.m. Monday. Questions can also be submitted on Twitter using the hashtag #askNASA.

For decades scientists have recognized that this area of the massive ice sheet covering Antarctica is particularly vulnerable to the effects of a changing climate. The majority of the ice sheet in West Antarctica is grounded on bedrock that lies below sea level, making it susceptible to melting from warm ocean waters.

Audio of the teleconference will be streamed live at:

http://www.nasa.gov/newsaudio

A link to relevant graphics will be posted at the start of the teleconference on NASA's Earth Right Now site:

http://www.nasa.gov/earthrightnow

-end-

Steve Cole
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
1871. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:23 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1868. Bluestorm5:



It's not really a bust if everybody is calling a slow season in Atlantic, though.
I'm not going to make any claims to how active or not so active this season will be, not after what happened last year. By August we should have a better idea. Still fun to look at all the models and weather charts and analyze them. Waiting on the bell to ring to officially declare El Nino.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8411
1870. Patrap
3:20 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Carl Hiaasen: Fla.'s Gov. Scott takes deep dive into climate change

BY CARL HIAASEN

The Miami Herald

May 12, 2014

(Rejected first draft of Gov. Rick Scott's position on climate change).

My fellow Floridians, as you've all probably heard, a new National Climate Assessment report says that Florida is seriously threatened by rising sea levels, mass flooding, salt-contaminated water supplies and increasingly severe weather events - all supposedly caused by climate change.

Let me assure you there's absolutely no reason for worry. I still don't believe climate change is real, and you shouldn't, either.

Don't be impressed just because 240 "experts" contributed to this melodramatic report. The tea party has experts, too, and they assure me it's all hogwash.

Even if the atmosphere is warming (and, whoa, I'm not saying it is!), I still haven't seen a speck of solid evidence that it has anything do with man spewing millions of tons of gaseous pollutants into the sky.

Is the planet a hotter place than it was 200 years ago? Yes, but only by a couple of degrees. Did most of the temperature rise occur since 1970? Yes, but don't blame coal-burning plants or auto emissions.

Maybe the sun is getting closer to the Earth. Ever think of that? Or the Earth is moving closer to the sun? Let's get some brainiacs to investigate that possibility!

As long as I'm the governor, Florida isn't going to punish any industries by imposing so-called "clean air" regulations that limit carbon emissions.

In fact, soon after I took office we repealed the state's Climate Protection Act and eliminated the Energy and Climate Commission that was created under my predecessor, the Obama-hugging turncoat Charlie Crist.

I also ordered the Department of Environmental Protection to halt all initiatives dealing with renewable energy and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, no one at DEP is even allowed to whisper the phrase "climate change" any more.

Yet the subject just won't go away. That's because the liberal media keep trying to scare everybody.

Say the polar ice caps really are melting, and sea levels really did rise eight inches during the last 130 years. Who says there has to be a scientific explanation? Maybe God's just messing around with us for a few centuries.

I myself own a big home in Naples right on the Gulf of Mexico, which is supposedly rising along with the oceans. Do I look scared? Do you see a moving van in my driveway?

Of course not (although I'm grateful to the Koch brothers for offering to let me stay with them in Wichita during the next hurricane).

And, please, enough griping already about Miami Beach going underwater! While I sympathize with all the homeowners and businesses along Alton Road that are being swamped by flooding at high tides, there's not much I can do as governor except pretend it isn't happening.

So let's pull together to remind the rest of America, and the whole world, that most of Florida is still dry, and it will be for many, many real-estate cycles to come.

Newcomers who might be queasy about purchasing waterfront property in South Beach or Fort Lauderdale should instead consider some of our inland gems like Sebring (where the average elevation is 131 feet above sea level), Haines City (182 feet) or Eustis (67 feet).

Let's get out the word that it could be hundreds of years before Ocala (104 feet) is submerged. So come on down now and get your homestead exemption before you need a snorkel to find your homestead.

If you really want to play it safe, try beautiful Britton Hill, the highest point in Florida at 345 feet above sea level. It is way up in Walton County near the Alabama border, but at least you'll still be on the map if Key Biscayne turns into a coral reef.

To concerned residents of greater Miami, Tampa Bay and Apalachicola - three areas singled out by the federal report as imperiled by rising water - here's what I would say:

Open a paddleboard shop, people. Or an airboat taxi service.

Why not turn a negative situation into a positive opportunity? One person's sinkhole is another person's cave-spelunking franchise.

Come on, Florida, let's get to work.

ABOUT THE WRITER

Carl Hiaasen is a columnist for the Miami Herald. Readers may write to him at: The Miami Herald, 3511 N.W. 91 Avenue, Doral, Fla. 33172; email: chiaasen@miamiherald.com.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
1869. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:19 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
TAMPA --
If getting a jump on purchasing hurricane supplies for the upcoming season is not your thing, the state of Florida hope to give you a little incentive.

Florida residents will again be able to buy hurricane supplies tax-free.

The Florida Legislature is making storm supplies exempt from sales taxes for one week at the start of hurricane season. The exemption is part of a tax-cut package approved by the Legislature. The package was sent it to Gov. Rick Scott, who is expected to sign it on Monday.

Under the bill (HB 5601), the tax break would be from May 31 through June 8.

"If you start early as soon as the season starts before the storm comes and have all the supplies that you need, you will be ready when the storm hits," said Ryan Budnik, a central Florida Ace Hardware Store manager.

Some of the specific items in the sales tax holiday include:

A portable self-powered light source selling for $20 or less.
A portable self-powered radio, two-way radio, or weather band radio selling for $50 or less.
A tarpaulin or other flexible waterproof sheeting selling for $50 or less.
A self-contained first-aid kit selling for $30 or less.
A ground anchor system or tie-down kit selling for $50 or less.
A gas or diesel fuel tank selling for $25 or less.
A package of AA-cell, C-cell, D-cell, 6-volt, or 9-volt batteries, excluding automobile and boat batteries, selling for $30 or less.
A nonelectric food storage cooler selling for $30 or less.
A portable generator used to provide light or communications or preserve food in the event of a power outage. selling for $750 or less.
Reusable ice selling for $10 or less.
These exemptions do not apply to sales inside of a theme park, entertainment complex, lodging establishment or airport.
"You always want to be prepared even though the outlook for this (hurricane) season is for a tamer season," said Bay News 9 meteorologist Josh Linker. "You could have a tame season and have one major storm hit your area, just like a busy season and no storms hitting your area."

Link

Josh Linker makes a good point, it only takes one, so always be prepared and have an evacuation plan already in place.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8411
1868. Bluestorm5
3:16 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1861. Tazmanian:

hurricane season is a bust this year if you want too track moster storms look in the E PAC and W PAC


It's not really a bust if everybody is calling a slow season in Atlantic, though.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8025
1867. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:13 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Post #1863 Looks like we are well on our way to a traditional El Nino with the warmest sst off the coast of Ecuador. The latest frame of the GODAS shows the El Nino signal well.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8411
1866. Grothar
3:09 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26389
1865. StormTrackerScott
3:03 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Nino 1&2 jumped from 9.52 to 1.039

More and more 3C anomalies beginning to show up across the enso regions.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 3221
1864. Patrap
3:02 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 7. JohnLonergan:

Ocean Heat Anomaly Spikes to New Extreme High of +1.16 C Above ‘Average’ on May 10, 2014



Global ocean surface temperature anomaly vs the 1979-2000 average. Data source: Global Forecast System Model. Image source: University of Maine.)

On May 10 global ocean surface temperatures hit a new extreme high for 2014 of +1.16 C above the already hotter than normal 1979-2000 average. This extraordinary temperature departure was driven in part by a warming of Equatorial Pacific waters to a +.59 C anomaly, putting that region in the range of a weak El Nino.

More ...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
1863. TimSoCal
2:59 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
SST's across the Nino regions have been declining as the MJO pulse moves away, allowing the easterlies to resume. They should stabilize somewhat before the next pulse arrives.

In fact, the warming seems to have resumed at Nino 1 2 already, and should continue in spite of the easterlies.

Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
1862. wunderkidcayman
2:58 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1859. ricderr:

Hey guys check this out it's our First Official Tropical Wave off the W Coast of Africa



cayman.....el nino is out there...so you can quit looking


yes...the ricderr official weather site has declared the 2014 hurricane season officially over...and of course this supercedes all nhc briefs, alerts and warnings....anything you might hear this upcoming season is no different than our space exploration.....a man made media event transpiring in secret government studios and broadcast as real...we've never been to the moon....space shuttle flights only happened on the backs of 747's...and the space station is broadcast from a secret russian military installation.....


There is no El Niño I think there eventually will be an El Niño I think it will be a Modoki El Niño but at the moment there is none
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12138
1861. Tazmanian
2:55 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
hurricane season is a bust this year if you want too track moster storms look in the E PAC and W PAC
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
1860. JRRP
2:51 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys check this out it's our First Official Tropical Wave off the W Coast of Africa


nice..
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5958
1859. ricderr
2:47 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Hey guys check this out it's our First Official Tropical Wave off the W Coast of Africa



cayman.....el nino is out there...so you can quit looking


yes...the ricderr official weather site has declared the 2014 hurricane season officially over...and of course this supercedes all nhc briefs, alerts and warnings....anything you might hear this upcoming season is no different than our space exploration.....a man made media event transpiring in secret government studios and broadcast as real...we've never been to the moon....space shuttle flights only happened on the backs of 747's...and the space station is broadcast from a secret russian military installation.....
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 674 Comments: 21725
1858. hydrus
2:45 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1825. StormTrackerScott:

Over the last several years there have been numerous reports of Great Whites around the Sebastion Inlet area. I guess this must be a prime feeding area for them there.
There is plenty for them to forage on. but Great White sightings were rare in that region...Things may be changing tho.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21401
1857. ricderr
2:42 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
'm going to survey across florida...but in this case.......here's the findings


duhhh...i meant texas......i forgot where i lived for a moment......i'll do florida also though.....
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1856. wunderkidcayman
2:42 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Hey guys check this out it's our First Official Tropical Wave off the W Coast of Africa

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1855. StormTrackerScott
2:38 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1853. CaribBoy:






A somewhat wet trade wind flow, I won't complain. It's may after all.


How much rain did you pick up over the weekend?
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1854. StormTrackerScott
2:36 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1852. ricderr:

What that means the stronger the El-Nino the more effects from excessive rainfall in Texas. However the biggest impacts will be in California & Florida. The storms that whipped thru here during the 1997/1998 El-Nino were terrifying. Will never forget watching a huge tornado move by our house at 12:03 in the morning with lightning strikes striking around the tornado as it plowed NE toward Sanford. That tornado was rated F3 and killed 13 a few were my classmates.

as regards to the stronger the event the more rainfall....this doesn't show to be true......i know it plays that way in the media...but not in this case when you do that comparisons......i'm going to survey across florida...but in this case.......here's the findings

weak el nino....2 above average rainfall and 3 drought

moderate el nino....3 above average rainfall and 2 drought...1 average

strong el nino...2 above average rainfall and 3 drought

for me...the only thing i think you can conclude...is you will not see average precip amounts


Well here in FL the only dry El-Nino I remember was the one in 2006/2007. Most if not all the other El-Nino's brought lots of heavy rain to FL especially from December thru March. It seemed to rain nearly the whole month of December during the last El-Nino of 2009. I picked up nearly 8" of rain that month when the average is 3".
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1853. CaribBoy
2:36 PM GMT on May 12, 2014





A somewhat wet trade wind flow, I won't complain. It's May after all.
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1852. ricderr
2:31 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
What that means the stronger the El-Nino the more effects from excessive rainfall in Texas. However the biggest impacts will be in California & Florida. The storms that whipped thru here during the 1997/1998 El-Nino were terrifying. Will never forget watching a huge tornado move by our house at 12:03 in the morning with lightning strikes striking around the tornado as it plowed NE toward Sanford. That tornado was rated F3 and killed 13 a few were my classmates.

as regards to the stronger the event the more rainfall....this doesn't show to be true......i know it plays that way in the media...but not in this case when you do that comparisons......i'm going to survey across florida...but in this case.......here's the findings

weak el nino....2 above average rainfall and 3 drought

moderate el nino....3 above average rainfall and 2 drought...1 average

strong el nino...2 above average rainfall and 3 drought

for me...the only thing i think you can conclude...is you will not see average precip amounts
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1851. nrtiwlnvragn
2:30 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
NOAA to announce Atlantic hurricane season outlook May 22

Announcement to include new storm surge forecast tools
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1850. StormTrackerScott
2:22 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
From Dr. Greg Forbes on Florida tornadoes

Florida gets its most tornadoes, on average, in June. The deadliest have been in January through April, however. While we tend to think of tornadoes as an afternoon and evening phenomenon, from 1950-2006, 44% of Florida's tornado deaths have been at night. Tornadoes at night can be particularly deadly. People are either asleep or can't see the twister coming in the darkness. It can save your life if you have a NOAA Weather Radio with Tone Alert, or subscribe to a notification system like.
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1849. StormTrackerScott
2:15 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
( Red Huber, Orlando Sentinel / February 23, 1998 )
Areas affected: Central Florida
Date: February 1998
Death toll: 42 deaths, 260 injuries
Damages: In excess of $100 million


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1848. StormTrackerScott
2:08 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
I suspect Doc may roll out an ENSO blog soon as we have our first .5C reading at Nino 3.4.
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1847. StormTrackerScott
2:05 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1846. ricderr:

i found a good highlight as to how fickle el nino is to texas rainfall.......

here is an el nino map



here is fly gap...located in central texas..



you can note that in the 51-52 event...the net rain result was drought...while the 97-98 event resulted in the highest rainfall recorded in that period


What that means the stronger the El-Nino the more effects from excessive rainfall in Texas. However the biggest impacts will be in California & Florida. The storms that whipped thru here during the 1997/1998 El-Nino were terrifying. Will never forget watching a huge tornado move by our house at 12:03 in the morning with lightning strikes striking around the tornado as it plowed NE toward Sanford. That tornado was rated F3 and killed 13 a few were my classmates.
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1846. ricderr
2:00 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
i found a good highlight as to how fickle el nino is to texas rainfall.......

here is an el nino map



here is fly gap...located in central texas..



you can note that in the 51-52 event...the net rain result was drought...while the 97-98 event resulted in the highest rainfall recorded in that period
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1845. MahFL
1:57 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1836. StormWx:

Can you say Cooler and Dryer in 6-10 days?


Cooler sounds good to me, any days below 90 F in the spring/summer are good in FL.
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1844. Tazmanian
1:54 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1838. StormTrackerScott:

Per CPC

The latest weekly SST
departures are:
Nino 4 0.8ºC
Nino 3.4 0.5ºC
Nino 3 0.6ºC
Nino 1+2 1.2ºC


Link




with nino 1 and 2 at 1.2 that is geting up there too mod EL nino levels looks like we are willl under way two strong two super strong EL nino by mid two late summer has the warming at nino 1 and 2 will be heading W in two the rest of the nino areas
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1843. StormWx
1:52 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting ricderr:
Good Morning everyone. It appears we are still in a Neutral pattern overall as the 3.4 is stubbornly below 0.5C at 0.4C. Even the Nino 4 region is coming back to reality. El Nino still waits, and i am still thinking later this year guys.




i addressed this on saturday........if we were to see a rapid rise in temp anomalies....nino could be declared as early as the middle of june.....hovering at an .5 average......the middle of august....and with a moderate rise ....middle to late july


Indeed i agree, El Nino will come in the upcoming months. Happy Monday to you :o)
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1842. Skyepony (Mod)
1:51 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1823. LAbonbon:



This image from the Icelandic Met Office captures it quite nicely:


Looks to have about reached Freezingcane statues now:)



The Atlantic blob on the other hand looks somewhat anemic this morning. The 00Z GEOS-5 run doesn't spin it up anymore. Not even next week. Still looks like needed rain for FL & some islands coming. Severe weather this week across parts of the US looks probable.

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1841. LargoFl
1:49 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
geez.................(CNN) -- A Texas panhandle wildfire that destroyed 100 homes and forced hundreds of residents to evacuate is 75 % contained, authorities said Monday.

The Texas Forest Service provided a spotter airplane and two air tankers that dropped fire retardant, said Danny Richards, coordinator for the Hutchinson County Emergency Management.

A cold front that moved into the area raised humidity and helped firefighting efforts, he said.

Richards said up to 1,500 acres burned and 700-800 people evacuated their homes.

Fritch Police Chief Monte Leggett said the fire put the whole town at risk. It started about late Sunday afternoon and was driven by strong, shifting winds.

The cause of the blaze has not been determined.
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1840. Tazmanian
1:49 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1839. StormTrackerScott:



I agree Ric. Good thing is East Texas is really benefiting now as the onset of El-Nino continues as tropical moisture has been getting pulled up from the E-Pac lately.





i hop CA will see the same beneflt rainfall has TX and FL has been geting later in SEP and fall and winter this year
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1839. StormTrackerScott
1:43 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1837. ricderr:

Good Morning everyone. It appears we are still in a Neutral pattern overall as the 3.4 is stubbornly below 0.5C at 0.4C. Even the Nino 4 region is coming back to reality. El Nino still waits, and i am still thinking later this year guys.




i addressed this on saturday........if we were to see a rapid rise in temp anomalies....nino could be declared as early as the middle of june.....hovering at an .5 average......the middle of august....and with a moderate rise ....middle to late july


I agree Ric. Good thing is East Texas is really benefiting now as the onset of El-Nino continues as tropical moisture has been getting pulled up from the E-Pac lately.

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1838. StormTrackerScott
1:41 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Per CPC

The latest weekly SST
departures are:
Nino 4 0.8ºC
Nino 3.4 0.5ºC
Nino 3 0.6ºC
Nino 1+2 1.2ºC


Link
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1837. ricderr
1:40 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Good Morning everyone. It appears we are still in a Neutral pattern overall as the 3.4 is stubbornly below 0.5C at 0.4C. Even the Nino 4 region is coming back to reality. El Nino still waits, and i am still thinking later this year guys.




i addressed this on saturday........if we were to see a rapid rise in temp anomalies....nino could be declared as early as the middle of june.....hovering at an .5 average......the middle of august....and with a moderate rise ....middle to late july
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1836. StormWx
1:38 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Can you say Cooler and Dryer in 6-10 days?





If we were in an "El Nino" wouldnt we be wetter? lol

Right around average for the CFL area this week.

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1835. StormTrackerScott
1:37 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
Quoting 1834. StormWx:

CPC has Nino 3.4 at .5C. Remember the CPC uses a 5 or 7 day average. As it stands we are in El-Nino now we just have to maintain .5C or higher for El-Nino to be officlally declared in June or July.

We are currently in Neutral conditions Scott, until they officially call it El Nino by definition. Here is the info on how they determine when an El Nino occurs:

North America's operational definitions for El Nio and La Nia, based on the index, are:
El Nio: A phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a positive sea surface temperature departure from normal (for the 1971-2000 base period) in the Nio 3.4 region greater than or equal in magnitude to 0.5 degrees C (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit), averaged over three consecutive months.

Not 5-7 days.

Link



I'm referring to their weekly updates as they use 5 to 7 day averages to determine what to use on their Monday updates. I suggest you read my post again.

CPC has Nino 3.4 at .5C. Remember the CPC uses a 5 or 7 day average. As it stands we are in El-Nino now we just have to maintain .5C or higher for El-Nino to be officlally declared in June or July.
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1834. StormWx
1:35 PM GMT on May 12, 2014
CPC has Nino 3.4 at .5C. Remember the CPC uses a 5 or 7 day average. As it stands we are in El-Nino now we just have to maintain .5C or higher for El-Nino to be officlally declared in June or July.

We are currently in Neutral conditions Scott, until they officially call it El Nino by definition. Here is the info on how they determine when an El Nino occurs:

North America's operational definitions for El Niño and La Niña, based on the index, are:
El Niño: A phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a positive sea surface temperature departure from normal (for the 1971-2000 base period) in the Niño 3.4 region greater than or equal in magnitude to 0.5 degrees C (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit), averaged over three consecutive months.

Not 5-7 days.

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.