Climate Change Moves Firmly Into the Present: Blockbuster National Climate Assessment

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on May 06, 2014

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Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present,” begins a new 1,000+ page report on U.S. climate released May 6. The National Climate Assessment, issued every four years by NOAA, is an effort by more than 300 U.S. scientists to assess how the climate is changing in the U.S. The report was supervised and approved by a 60-member committee representing a cross section of American society, including representatives of two oil companies. “Summers are longer and hotter, and extended periods of unusual heat last longer than any living American has ever experienced,” the report continues. “Winters are generally shorter and warmer. Rain comes in heavier downpours. People are seeing changes in the length and severity of seasonal allergies, the plant varieties that thrive in their gardens, and the kinds of birds they see in any particular month in their neighborhoods.” The National Climate Assessment lists hotter heat waves, more intense droughts, coastal inundation due to rising seas, heavier downpours, melting of glaciers and permafrost, bigger wildfires, worsening air pollution, stronger storms, increased diseases transmitted by insects, food, and water, and threats to mental health, as being of particular concern for Americans. If you want a thorough understanding of how climate change is affecting and will affect the U.S., this highly readable document is a great one to read, and I plan to frequently reference it in the coming years. Coming on the heels of a major 3-part report released by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in September - April, the National Climate Assessment presents the same key themes: climate change is already having widespread impacts and will get much worse, but there are cost-effective measures we can take to adapt to it and help reduced it. “Climate change presents a major challenge for society,” the report warns. “There is mounting evidence that harm to the nation will increase substantially in the future unless global emissions of heat-trapping gases are greatly reduced.” What’s particularly handy about the NCA is that it is U.S.-specific, and discusses in great detail the specific impacts in eight different regions of the U.S.: Northeast, Southeast and Caribbean, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest, Northwest, Alaska, and Hawaii and Pacific Islands. I present here a few highlights.

Wet areas will get wetter, and dry areas will get drier. To me, this is the key finding of the NCA. As shown in Figure 1 below, the water-rich will get richer, and the water-poor will get poorer. This pattern will increase the costs of both droughts and floods, and make it harder to grow crops, on average, when the nation-wide impact is considered.


Figure 1. Difference in precipitation (in percent) between the observed 1970 - 1999 period, and the 30-year period centered on 2084, as predicted by 15 climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC climate report. The models assumed a relatively high-emissions scenario (A2), though not as high as the path humanity is currently on. The results show a key prediction of the future for North America: wet areas are expected to get wetter, and dry areas are expected to get drier. The predicted summer dryness across the major grain-growing areas of the U.S. is of particular concern, since increases in dryness will make is harder to grow food. Image credit: NASA and NOAA.

Agriculture: “Climate disruptions to agriculture have been increasing and are projected to become more severe over this century. Some areas are already experiencing climate- related disruptions, particularly due to extreme weather events. While some U.S. regions and some types of agricultural production will be relatively resilient to climate change over the next 25 years or so, others will increasingly suffer from stresses due to extreme heat, drought, disease, and heavy downpours. From mid-century on, climate change is projected to have more negative impacts on crops and livestock across the country – a trend that could diminish the security of our food supply... Climate change effects on agriculture will have consequences for food security, both in the U.S. and globally, through changes in crop yields and food prices and effects on food processing, storage, transportation, and retailing. Adaptation measures can help delay and reduce some of these impacts.”

Water: “The Southwest, Great Plains, and Southeast are particularly vulnerable to changes in water supply and demand. Changes in precipitation and runoff, combined with changes in consumption and withdrawal, have reduced surface and groundwater supplies in many areas. These trends are expected to continue, increasing the likelihood of water shortages for many uses. Increasing flooding risk affects human safety and health, property, infrastructure, economies, and ecology in many basins across the United States.”

Heavy Downpours: “Heavy downpours are increasing nationally, especially over the last three to five decades. Largest increases are in the Midwest and Northeast. Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected for all U.S. regions.”


Figure 2. Percent changes in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (the heaviest 1%) from 1958 to 2012 for each region. There is a clear national trend toward a greater amount of precipitation being concentrated in very heavy events, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Image credit: NCA Overview, updated from Karl et al. 2009.

Extreme Weather: “There have been changes in some types of extreme weather events over the last several decades. Heat waves have become more frequent and intense, especially in the West. Cold waves have become less frequent and intense across the Nation. There have been regional trends in floods and droughts. Droughts in the Southwest and heat waves everywhere are projected to become more intense, and cold waves less intense everywhere.”

Hurricanes: “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Severe Storms: “Winter storms have increased in frequency and intensity since the 1950s, and their tracks have shifted northward over the United States. Other trends in severe storms, including the intensity and frequency of tornadoes, hail, and damaging thunderstorm winds, are uncertain and are being studied intensively.”

Oceans: “Ocean waters are becoming warmer and more acidic, broadly affecting ocean circulation, chemistry, ecosystems, and marine life. More acidic waters inhibit the formation of shells, skeletons, and coral reefs. Warmer waters harm coral reefs and alter the distribution, abundance, and productivity of many marine species. The rising temperature and changing chemistry of ocean water combine with other stresses, such as overfishing and coastal and marine pollution, to alter marine-based food production and harm fishing communities.” The NCA website has an impressive interactive graphic with a slider that allows one to see the impact of acidification on a pteropod’s shell.

The official roll-out of the NCA will occur at 2pm EDT May 6 from the White House, and will be webcast live at http:/www.whitehouse.gov/live. According to Andrew Freedman at Mashable, eight television meteorologists are slated to have rare one-on-one interviews about global warming with President Barack Obama on Tuesday, including Al Roker, co-anchor of NBC's Today Show; Ginger Zee, meteorologist on ABC's Good Morning America; John Morales, chief meteorologist of NBC 6 in Miami, Florida; and Jim Gandy, meteorologist of WLTX-TV in Columbia, South Carolina. President Obama also previously did an interview on climate change with a crew from Showtime's documentary series "Years of Living Dangerously”; the interview is scheduled to air sometime in the next few months.

Unlike the IPCC report, the U.S. National Climate Assessment is plainly written, easy-to-understand, and has an excellent web site with nice graphics, some of them interactive. I highly recommend perusing the Overview section of the NCA website to get a quick summary of their findings. They've also made available a collection of short videos.

I’ll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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1466. riverat544
2:15 AM GMT on May 09, 2014
Quoting 1429. Chucktown:



Then if "climate change" is such a hot issue with government and the media, why should we believe it. The American public forgets things very quickly. We live in the now, no one remembers that we haven't had a major hurricane strike the US since 2005, but we remember the brutal winter that impacted the majority of the country, so the media and government has made a little "extra" push in recent weeks to drill this so called "climate change" into everyones head.

You don't have to believe the government or media. But the IPCC report, particularly the WG1 report is overwhelmingly produced by PhD scientists and I think that is worth paying attention to.

Also, if you think political boundaries mean anything in terms of hurricanes you're doing it wrong.
Member Since: March 29, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 109
1465. caribbeantracker01
10:29 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
it was very interesting to see how 90 E panned out i think the models are still being feed the wrong ingredients atm if the models get a better handle on the enso i think their forecasting will improve.

the recent anomaly map came out today and it shows a very significant warm pool in nino region 3.4 and 4. The only other time in the 21st century this has occurred is in 2004 because the most recent of these three el ninio where nino region 1 &2 had the dominant warming bears no resemblance to the present unfolding situation with the 2014 el ninio.

2014 : Warm pool in ninio 3.4 & 4 and a extremely warm gulf of Alaska


2004 : Warm pool in ninio 3.4 & 4 and a extremely warm gulf of Alaska


2009 : Cold gulf of alaska and no consistant warm pool in ninio 3.4 & 4


2006 : very cold gulf of alaska and also no consistant warming signiture in ninio 3.4 & 4

If this trend continues and a traditional el ninio does not form it will be important for the stake holders to stress on preparedness rather than just the talk of el ninio which will aid in complacency more and more modoki type el ninio is the best bet.

Ninio 1&2 forecasted to dip in july..


NInio 3 forecasted to rise steadily
Member Since: May 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 556
1464. Econundertow
8:09 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1373. sar2401:



Your link does not work. This link does. I must say, you have managed to collect one of the biggest laundry lists of things to do in terms of pollution I've ever seen. If you had to pick just three, what would they be?


- Start controlling soot; nobody is in favor of it, eliminating it has an immediate positive impact on health and there are remunerative means to combat it (better cooking stoves, reformulated diesel fuel, etc.). Soot also has a outsize affect on melting in polar regions so tackling it would offer 'more bang for the buck'.

- End bootleg manufacture of chlorofluorocarbon refrigerant compounds. CFCs and many HCFCs are very destructive greenhouse chemicals; the react high in the atmosphere and are very persistent. There are good alternative compounds, there is no reason for any country to provide safe-harbor to manufacturers of these old-fashioned refrigerants. Like a 'war on soot' it would we be fairly simple to implement, results would be easy to measure (less CFCs and HCFCs in atmosphere) and the effort would not be very costly compared to reducing carbon emissions for electrical generating plants, for instance.

- End fuel subsidies. Many countries have discovered that high fuel prices - plus - fuel subsidies = national bankruptcy. There is a strong impetus from IMF and other major lenders to cut back or eliminate fuel subsides; what this means is that part of the institutional framework to end fuel subsidies is already in place. This would be an easy win that benefits everyone -- including drivers who would wind up using a lot less fuel.
Member Since: December 20, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
1463. nonblanche
5:17 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1383. Grothar:



This should read as follows.
I know my grammar is awful since I am still having a problem with the proper placement of commas. This is the reason I am not an English major. You would not find me correcting the grammar or spelling of anyone. If (capital I) I am able to comprehend what is written, it is fine.

If I were (not was; Subjunctive mode) writing a paper for school for which I would be graded, I would then revise any paragraph in which there may be errors.

(Caleb, you know I'm joshing with you)


All I can say is, the internet has been hell on us proofreaders. Fidonet was a little better at least. And don't even get me started on SMS shortcuts. My older daughter is almost as much a spellcheck nazi as I, and she does it just to tweak me a little.
Member Since: October 21, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 263
1462. ScottLincoln
4:10 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1385. sar2401:


Sorry, NOAA gets no sympathy from me on this one. NOAA's first job is operational weather forecasting.

No, that's not NOAA's first job. NOAA is a blanket agency that contains many sub-agencies/services.
I think you are thinking of the National Weather Service, which is part of NOAA. But no, NOAA doesn't just do weather, even if some of us wish that they did.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3247
1461. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:04 PM GMT on May 08, 2014



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54893
1460. sar2401
4:00 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting sar2401:

I would lay it at the feet of YouTube and Wordpress. Really, with all the attention given to Murdoch and Fox, they, along with CNN, MSNBC, and the other networks are becoming increasingly irrelevant. Those that believe...and I mean, really believe...that climate change is either just false or a .gov conspiracy, get their fuel from hundreds of blogs and thousands of YouTube videos that tell them "I'm right!". Way back when (say, five years ago), it tooks some brains and money to set up a web site. Now, using web tools like Wordpress, you can be up and running in an hour at very little cost, and using the brain power of your average hamster. OK, a smart average hamster, but you see my point. With a smartphone, you can make and post videos on YouTube at no cost. With some cheap editing software, you can even make them look pretty good. Now we have a complete closed system. You make a blog and link to all the other blogs. Pretty soon, other blogs are linking to your blog. Then you go look at the YouTube videos that show you're exactly right. Pretty soon, your blog has 5,000 readers, so you must be smart and right. I don't think people get it yet. What's said on the networks has almost no influence on the true believers.

P.S. I hope my spelling and grammar are correct. I really tried. At least I didn't have to do timezone calculations. :-)

P.P.S. Dr. Masters will post a new blog in 3...2...1...


EDIT: I knew it...
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16498
1459. sar2401
3:59 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting LAbonbon:


'Inestimable' indeed. He nailed it.

How much of this lies at the feet of Murdoch?

I would lay it at the feet of YouTube and Wordpress. Really, with all the attention given to Murdoch and Fox, they, along with CNN, MSNBC, and the other networks are becoming increasingly irrelevant. Those that believe...and I mean, really believe...that climate change is either just false or a .gov conspiracy, get their fuel from hundreds of blogs and thousands of YouTube videos that tell them "I'm right!". Way back when (say, five years ago), it tooks some brains and money to set up a web site. Now, using web tools like Wordpress, you can be up and running in an hour at very little cost, and using the brain power of your average hamster. OK, a smart average hamster, but you see my point. With a smartphone, you can make and post videos on YouTube at no cost. With some cheap editing software, you can even make them look pretty good. Now we have a complete closed system. You make a blog and link to all the other blogs. Pretty soon, other blogs are linking to your blog. Then you go look at the YouTube videos that show you're exactly right. Pretty soon, your blog has 5,000 readers, so you must be smart and right. I don't think people get it yet. What's said on the networks has almost no influence on the true believers.

P.S. I hope my spelling and grammar are correct. I really tried. At least I didn't have to do timezone calculations. :-)

P.P.S. Dr. Masters will post a new blog in 3...2...1...

EDIT: I knew it...
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16498
1458. sonofagunn
3:55 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1429. Chucktown:



Then if "climate change" is such a hot issue with government and the media, why should we believe it...


You will find a lot more doubting of climate change in the government and media than you will find with academics who study climate. Ignore the government & media, fine, but don't ignore the academics.
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1457. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:47 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1456. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:45 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Wow Anticyclone!

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8707
1455. wunderkidcayman
3:45 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1450. GTstormChaserCaleb:

If you look closely you can see a couple areas of spin north of PR.



Umm I only see 1 and that's N of the NEstern coast of PR moving W bound
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12697
1454. LAbonbon
3:44 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
1453. pottery
3:43 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting REDFISH904:

There are only 13 million hunters in the US and less than 25% of those hunt birds. Still seems a little high.


Agreed.
I found all the numbers high.
Hundreds of millions of dead birds (overall, excluding hunting) each year in the US alone would create quite a noticeable issue.

And the number for birds killed by cats? Wow.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24685
1452. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:43 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8707
1451. LAbonbon
3:42 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1395. Neapolitan:

From the inestimable Hunter at DailyKos:



Full stop. Nope. Nothing needs more to be said. You can sum up the entire New American Culture in those two sentences; everything about the role of the media in pitting propaganda against facts, everything about the ideological resentment of expertise, everything about the insistence that the opinions of those who have made it their life's work to study a thing be given exactly as much credence as—and no more than—someone whose opinion on the subject may be entirely uninformed but whose illiterate or innumerate or for-hire opinion may be deeply held. We will suffer droughts, and floods, and crop failures, and the little maps in the garden catalogs that show which plants will grow in your area of the country will shift colors, then shift again, but what is important is that the opinion of the prominently uninformed, or the opinion of those who have hung out their shingle, the one on which they have written will have prominent opinions for food; inquire within, be given equal weight to The Facts of how it is happening and why.

That, right there.



'Inestimable' indeed. He nailed it.

How much of this lies at the feet of Murdoch?
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
1450. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:40 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
If you look closely you can see a couple areas of spin north of PR.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8707
1449. pottery
3:39 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting Grothar:
Well boys and girls. I have to go for awhile. I am going to see if my soil has changed since last night. Have a good argument (I mean conversation) on the blog today.


We trust that you will keep the results of your investigation to yourself.
This is a family blog, you know…..

:):)), good to see you, Gro.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24685
1448. Patrap
3:39 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Where some perceive argument, I see a opportunity to teach.

Grumpiness is a choice...not a opinion.

: P
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1447. REDFISH904
3:38 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1349. Naga5000:



Roughly .38 birds per person.

There are only 13 million hunters in the US and less than 25% of those hunt birds. Still seems a little high.
Member Since: February 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
1446. Grothar
3:36 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Well boys and girls. I have to go for awhile. I am going to see if my soil has changed since last night. Have a good argument (I mean conversation) on the blog today.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958
1445. pottery
3:36 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting sar2401:

You should read the Day 3 outlook from the SPC if you really want something incomprehensible. :-)

It's sunny, warm, and increasingly humid here in the Heart of Dixie. 83 with a dewpoint of 67, with a SW wind. It looks like the approaching trough will be held off by the ridge to the east, which is reluctant to move...again. We will get some thunderstorms tomorrow and Saturday, but nothing severe. After that, it looks like a dirty ridge, with a chance of thunderstorms each day until at least Wednesday. Then it might get cold...or hot. The models are unclear on such things past five days.

How is the weather in the land of bitumen?

Hot, dry, with the slight chance of no change being highly possible.

:):))

Doing good here.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24685
1444. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:35 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1431. Patrap:

90E Remnant Swirl and cloud cover


RIP 90-E probably another byproduct of the 2013 Hurricane Season. :D
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8707
1443. LAbonbon
3:34 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
The precip seems to have shifted west from yesterday's forecast. Hello, Texas!

Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
1442. sar2401
3:34 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Off topic, but the NFL Draft is today. I wonder which team will be the lucky recipient of Johnny "Football"?

The Browns, but they'll sell him immediately and pocket the profit. Wouldn't want to get fans in Cleveland too excited.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16498
1441. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:34 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54893
1440. Patrap
3:32 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1439. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:31 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1425. opal92nwf:


Exactly! Only when poor grammar, spelling, or wording coherence in blog comment situations is obvious enough so that it starts to get annoying or hinders reading comprehension is when it is a problem.
I have been in comments section like that. ESPN before they changed over to Facebook comments. Whenever there was a topic on LeBron James, Tim Tebow, Jeremy Lin, or Peyton Manning comments would be flying faster then the speed of light over there. It was fun while it lasted over there.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8707
1438. sar2401
3:31 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting pottery:
When does this Semantics class end?
I find it totally incomprehensible.

You should read the Day 3 outlook from the SPC if you really want something incomprehensible. :-)

It's sunny, warm, and increasingly humid here in the Heart of Dixie. 83 with a dewpoint of 67, with a SW wind. It looks like the approaching trough will be held off by the ridge to the east, which is reluctant to move...again. We will get some thunderstorms tomorrow and Saturday, but nothing severe. After that, it looks like a dirty ridge, with a chance of thunderstorms each day until at least Wednesday. Then it might get cold...or hot. The models are unclear on such things past five days.

How is the weather in the land of bitumen?
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1437. LAbonbon
3:31 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
deleted - operator error :/
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1436. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:29 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54893
1435. nymore
3:29 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Bill Nye is not a climate expert, he is a mechanical engineer. Maybe he could give some advice from his knowledge  on how nuclear power reactors work (well maybe not) or maybe explain to us more about the pull of gravity in forming storms (well maybe not). 
Good old Bill Nye always good for a laugh.
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
1434. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:28 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Off topic, but the NFL Draft is today. I wonder which team will be the lucky recipient of Johnny "Football"?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8707
1433. Patrap
3:27 PM GMT on May 08, 2014


Quoting 1430. LAbonbon:



And back them up! My laptop went belly up in January, and I lost everything.

For weather, I'm starting from scratch again on the links :(


I backup my links and "other" needed saved items in my wu mail so their server can hold it and vouch for me if needed.

: P
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1432. Grothar
3:27 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1410. Patrap:




Why are you posting a map from 2011? Get with the program.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958
1431. Patrap
3:26 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
90E Remnant Swirl and cloud cover

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1430. LAbonbon
3:25 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1401. Patrap:

With the properly Saved links, one can tell what iz going on weather wise Globally.


And back them up! My laptop went belly up in January, and I lost everything.

For weather, I'm starting from scratch again on the links :(
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
1429. Chucktown
3:24 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1415. Naga5000:


What goes on in the media is utter B.S., along with government. We have non educators setting education policy. Non economists writing budgets based on campaign promises.

I don't think we are far off on agreement there.


Then if "climate change" is such a hot issue with government and the media, why should we believe it. The American public forgets things very quickly. We live in the now, no one remembers that we haven't had a major hurricane strike the US since 2005, but we remember the brutal winter that impacted the majority of the country, so the media and government has made a little "extra" push in recent weeks to drill this so called "climate change" into everyones head.
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1428. Patrap
3:24 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Another good page to save for the "Season"


wunderground external links for Hurricanes
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1427. wunderkidcayman
3:24 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Poor 90E anyway now it's a naked spin with whatever convection left over off to the NE currently appears to be moving slowly well not that slowly off E-ESE near 16.8°N 103.0°W ... It maybe is moving WSW not sure we will have to wait for more sattelite images lets just call it nearly stationary
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12697
1426. pottery
3:24 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
When does this Semantics class end?
I find it totally incomprehensible.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24685
1425. opal92nwf
3:23 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1378. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I know my grammar is awful as I still have problems with comma splices which is why I am not an English major. You wouldn't see me telling people to correct their spelling or grammar. if I can read it and understand what it says then that is fine. If I was writing a paper for school or to be graded then I would go back and revise this paragraph as I know there is grammar errors with it.

Exactly! Only when poor grammar, spelling, or wording coherence in blog comment situations is obvious enough so that it starts to get annoying or hinders reading comprehension is when it is a problem.
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2795
1424. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:23 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1420. Patrap:

90E's moisture Ene bound.



upper level segment is crossing over bound
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54893
1423. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:23 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1416. yoboi:





That's a theory endorsed by Dr Russ Schnell, a scientist doing atmospheric research at Mauna Loa Observatory, 11,000 feet up on Hawaii. "It appears that we have a very good case for suggesting that the El Ninos are going to become more frequent, and they're going to become more intense and in a few years, or a decade or so, we'll go into a permanent El Nino."

"So instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we'll have El Nino upon El Nino, and that will become the norm. And you'll have an El Nino, that instead of lasting 18 months, lasts 18 years," he said.

Link

Ahhhhh but you sure supported contacting Dr Russ Schnell......
Very cool read yoboi. A little bit of taboo there.

"El Nino events have been occurring for thousands of years. It is a natural phenomenon that has always had a profound effect on those who live within its influence.

High in the Peruvian Andes, archeologists have discovered the skeletons of what they believe are human sacrifices, linked to El Nino events, at Inca temples of the Sun and the Moon.

Dr Steve Bourget from the University of East Anglia believes the 80 victims were sacrificed to placate the Gods during El Nino rainstorms. "On the north coast of Peru it almost never rains ... it rains like this only during the time of Nino's."
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8707
1422. Patrap
3:21 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1419. FBMinFL:



Indeed. Do you happen to have a list of your favorite sites?


I use the box at the top of this and every wu page mostly to be truthful.

Or this, www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php

and dis here un.

RAMMB
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1421. JRRP
3:19 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
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1420. Patrap
3:19 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
90E's moisture Ene bound.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1418. GTstormChaserCaleb
3:18 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
1417. LAbonbon
3:18 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
My two cents on the blog confusion regarding scientists:

Most people, myself included, who get degrees in science do not continue on in their studies all the way through to a Ph.D. The scientists who publish in peer-reviewed journals are typically Ph.D.s or Ph.D. candidates.

I don't have the exact breakdown by group, but scientists who get their Bachelor's degree and stop there, usually go to work in one of four places: industry, government, non-profit groups or environmental consulting. In my field the overwhelming majority goes into environmental consulting.

As scientists we may have an easier grasp on much of the CC material, but it does not mean we are in the 'upper level' of scientists who do original research, publish, or participate as a 'peer' in the peer review process.

Much of the disagreement regarding CC/AGW seems to emanate from scientists who are not researchers. I know that amongst co-workers and friends who are scientists who are either uncertain about, or disagree with, CC/AGW, none of them have pursued a Ph.D. in their field. Further, almost none of them have kept up with any of the literature regarding CC/AGW. The oft-cited petition denying CC/AGW was overwhelmingly filled with non-research scientists.

The poster below is a soil scientist. This does not mean he is a research scientist. It appears his career has gone the way of most - environmental consulting. This is not an attempt to besmirch his accomplishments. He appears to operate his own business; kudos to him.

I am quite proud of the education I do have. I am quite confident in my knowledge of certain areas. However, I am not a Ph.D. who is currently active in research and publishing in the CC/AGW arena. To equate my opinion with that of someone who is does not make sense.



Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
1416. yoboi
3:16 PM GMT on May 08, 2014
Quoting 1409. Naga5000:


I really can't believe you are defending tracking someone down from the blog and cold calling them.




That's a theory endorsed by Dr Russ Schnell, a scientist doing atmospheric research at Mauna Loa Observatory, 11,000 feet up on Hawaii. "It appears that we have a very good case for suggesting that the El Ninos are going to become more frequent, and they're going to become more intense and in a few years, or a decade or so, we'll go into a permanent El Nino."

"So instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we'll have El Nino upon El Nino, and that will become the norm. And you'll have an El Nino, that instead of lasting 18 months, lasts 18 years," he said.

Link

Ahhhhh but you sure supported contacting Dr Russ Schnell......
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2452

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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