April 27 - 30 Severe Weather Outbreak: 39 Dead, $1 Billion+ in Damage

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:24 PM GMT on May 01, 2014

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The deadly and devastating U.S. severe weather outbreak of April 27 - 30, 2014, has finally drawn to a close. The death toll from nature’s 4-day rampage of deadly tornadoes, extreme flooding, and damaging severe thunderstorms has killed at least 39 people, and will end up costing more than $1 billion, according to disaster expert Steve Bowen of Aon Benfield. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) lists 133 preliminary tornadoes over the four days in 14 states; damage surveys are on-going, and 38 of these tornadoes had been confirmed as of noon on May 1.


Figure 1. Rainfall derived from the TRMM' satellite’s Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) data is shown overlaid on GOES-EAST infrared satellite images captured on April 29, 2014 at 0402 UTC and 0532 UTC. Red symbols show the locations where numerous tornadoes were reported from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme rainfall and flooding in Pensacola and Mobile
Torrential rains on Tuesday night in Pensacola, Florida brought an all-time calendar-day record of 15.55” of rain to the city. The old calendar day record of 15.29" in October 1934 was due to a tropical storm that made landfall just to the west of the city. Mobile, Alabama saw 11.24" during the calendar day on Tuesday, their 3rd greatest calendar day total on record. The Pensacola Airport recorded a remarkable 5.68 inches of rain in just one hour ending at 10 pm Tuesday night, and numerous high-water rescues had to be performed Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. One drowning occurred, in a vehicle that tried to cross flooded Highway 29. According to a nice flood event summary from the Mobile/Pensacola NWS, the 5.68" that fell in 1 hour was between a 1 to 200 and 1 to 500 year event, and the two day estimated total for Pensacola of 20.47" lies between a 1 in 100 to 1 in 200 year event. As discussed by Andrea Thompson at Climate Central, these type of extreme precipitation events have increased in the U.S. in recent decades, are are expected to continue to increase as a warming climate puts more moisture into the atmosphere. A comparison for perspective: Wichita, Kansas is having it's second driest start to the year since 1936, with 2.01” since January 1, 2014; Pensacola received 2 1/2 times as much rain in one hour than Wichita has seen all year. Pensacola finished April with 29.53” of rain, breaking the all-time record for any month (not just April) of 24.46” set in April 2005. This also makes it the wettest year-to-date on record in Pensacola.


Figure 2. Natural gas leaks spray into the sky on Piedmont Street in the Cordova Park neighborhood in Pensacola, Florida, after the road washed out due to heavy rains on April 30, 2014. (Photo by Marianna Massey/Getty Images)


Video 1. Aerial drone footage of the Scenic Highway near Pensacola, Florida, after being washed out by extreme flooding on April 30, 2014. Another YouTube drone video here of the Pensacola flooding also shows the impressive scale of the event.

Heavy rains and flooding in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
The storm also brought heavy rains and damaging flooding to much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday. The 4.97" that fell in New York City at Central Park was the Big Apple’s 2nd wettest April day on record, behind the 7.57" that fell on April 15, 2007. In Pennsylvania, during a nine-hour period that ended early Thursday, Chester County got 6.6 “ of rain, Delaware and Montgomery counties got 5.5”, and Philadelphia nearly 5 inches. At least 62 people were rescued overnight in Chester County from their vehicles, most after driving past closed road signs and barriers. Heavy rains in Baltimore caused a washout of a retaining wall, causing multiple cars to plunge down into a flooded railway line.


Figure 3. View of the Charles Village, Baltimore retaining wall collapse near 26th St on April 30, 2014. There were no injuries, but at least six cars plunged down onto the CSX railroad tracks below. According to meteorologist Justin Berk, who took the photo, local residents said they have had concerns about this wall for a long time.

Two EF-4 tornadoes from the outbreak
At least two EF-4 tornadoes have been surveyed so far from the outbreak, and there may be others once damage surveys are complete:

Vilonia, Arkansas: A violent high-end EF-4 tornado with winds of 180 - 190 mph tore through Vilonia and Mayflower, Arkansas on April 27, killing 15 people. This tornado was also the widest (3/4 mile) and longest lived (60 minutes) twister of the outbreak. There is a report that the tornado picked up a truck in Mayflower and deposited it in a field northeast of Vilonia, 27 miles away. Update: When contacted about this again by a reporter, the man who's car was transported admitted some confusion about where his car had been parked at the time of the tornado, so this remarkable story is dubious.

Louisville, Mississippi: An EF-4 with 185 mph winds hit Louisville, Mississippi on April 28. The tornado killed nine people, carved a path 35 miles long and up to 3/4 mile wide, and stayed on the ground for 56 minutes. The tornado carried a door 30 miles from Louisville and deposited it on the Mississippi State University campus.

The longest path tornado of the event was an EF-1 twister with a path length of 46 miles that stayed on the ground 46 minutes, and killed two people near Martinsburg and Kinross, Iowa on April 27.


Figure 4. Volunteers help clean up debris where homes once stood after the area was hit by a tornado April 29, 2014 in Vilonia, Arkansas. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)


Video 2. Aerial drone footage of tornado damage from April 28, 2014 in Bessemer, Alabama just west of Birmingham. The EF-2 tornado with maximum winds of 120 mph stayed on the ground 4.9 miles and hit a golf course and an apartment complex, with a near miss of the Bessemer Hospital. It’s remarkable to see the huge number of trees pulled out by their roots. According to an article in Forbes, “The FAA claims the broad authority to prohibit the ‘commercial’ use of drones, and has included the use of drones for journalism or search and rescue under that ban. The FAA’s determination comes despite having lost an enforcement action at the administrative judge level….Despite the clear value of drones in disaster response and search and rescue operations, one search and rescue group based out of Texas has been forbidden from flying their drones in search and rescue operations, prompting them to sue the federal government. That case has sent a message to all would be search and rescue groups, letting them know they should keep their drones grounded, lest they face fines for trying to help find lost persons.”

U.S. billion-dollar weather-related disasters of 2014
1) The January 5 - 8 "Polar Vortex" winter weather outbreak, which Aon Benfield estimated caused $3 billion in damage.
2) The California drought, with $3.6 billion in agricultural damages so far, as estimated by the California Farm Water Coalition.
3) Severe weather outbreak of April 27 - 30, which Aon Benfield estimated caused $1+ billion in damage.

Disaster Relief Donations Needed
The devastation from this week’s tornadoes have brought a need for donations for disaster relief. The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded by members of the wunderground community, is supporting the efforts of a group of local volunteers in Arkansas doing search and rescue, and needs donations. Portlight volunteers are working in tornado-hit towns to clear debris and help with other clean-up efforts. This team will also be visiting shelters and reaching out to survivors with disabilities to determine their immediate needs, whether for replacement of durable medical equipment and ramps, or for assistance with shelter and transportation issues. The Red Cross is also a great place to send your donation dollars.

This will likely be my last post until Tuesday afternoon, as I plan on taking a few days off.

Jeff Masters

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1801. wunderkidcayman
3:08 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Well here you go


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061449 CCA
TWOEP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014

CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE DATE AND TIME.

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11036
1800. LargoFl
2:52 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
here's an interesting climate change report some here may find interesting rummaging thru.............Link
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36905
1799. ScottLincoln
2:50 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1731. sar2401:

I posted a picture of the radar from the KC NWS that the meteorologists who wrote the report stated showed an anvil shield and overshooting top. You said, in post 1371 -

The image you are showing right now really isn't showing the anvil, and the reflectivity isn't going to correlate to the overshooting top. More than likely, the overshooting top would be located in the area of strongest updraft, which you will typically find in the WER or BWER area. In this image, its the no reflectivity area within the curve of the hook.

Either I am unable to understand basic English, or you stated that what was shown on the KC NWS web page did not show an anvil shield or overshooting top, when the caption stated it did show an anvil shield and overshooting top. I will leave it to others to read what you wrote, what was written by the KC NWS, and decide what you really said.
No, Sar. In the post you provided, you showed the following image:


If you look at the description that NWS KC provides for that image, they do not say that that the image shows an anvil:
"At the time of this image, several reports of brief tornadoes were received in and around Maysville and Amity, MO. While the radar's velocity couplet (right) wasn't particularly impressive, the storm exhibited a very textbook supercell structure in its reflectivity appearance."

Now, if you were to look around on that page at other images, you would see some that do show the anvil, such as this one:

That image shows the anvil because it is incorporating more than a single tilt in the view. The image you showed was 0.5deg only, which at that range is still sampling the low-to-mid levels of the storm, not the anvil. This image also could not have showed an overshooting top, because again, the radar data was showing the low-to-mid levels of the storm, not the upper portion extending into the troposphere. You'll also notice from the cross section slice that the overshooting top exists over the top of the low echo region near the surface, just as a mentioned in my original reply.

So no, my analysis (in your words) did not disagree, it was correct. Your description of what their caption said was also just not accurate. I'm going to try and be fair and for the time being assume it was an honest mistake on your part, and what happened was that you simply misunderstood what you were seeing in the radar data.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3168
1798. jpsb
2:21 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1718. Xyrus2000:



Incorrect. Success is not the bottom line. That's "ends-justify-means" type of thinking which, at best, is a terrible way to approach anything. Faulty methodology can still lead to right answers, or answers that may be correct but aren't useful.



Since we are playing what ifs

A well respected psychic , known for making accurate predictions, predicts an 8.1 earth quake in LA next week. Millions flee the city an avoid being killed when the predicted earth quake strikes.

"answers that may be correct but aren't useful" ?

reliably correct answers are always useful.

Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1175
1797. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:07 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1793. washingtonian115:

Remember how these things look in the early morning hours only to look like it's former self once the afternoon late comes around..May I remind you of Dorian last year?,

This is honestly a modest question what is the hurricane on the front page where it's titled "billion dollar disasters".

Wind shear is high to its northwest.


Link

And increasing.


Link

Regardless of what becomes of this heavy rain which may lead to mudslides may be the result.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
1796. ricderr
2:06 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
updated by the aussie mets......if the model means holds true we would have a moderate el nino



Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 671 Comments: 21426
1795. CaneFreeCR
2:04 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1707. KoritheMan:

"Professionals" (or more accurately, well-educated weather nerds) are objectively more qualified to analyze and predict the complex atmospheric dynamics than those who are not. That being said, I think that sometimes the more knowledgeable people actually overanalyze the forecasting situation, myself included. You don't need to look at every parameter in every single model in order to churn out a good forecast.

As Grothar said, "Look at the weather".


I love the probably apocryphal story about Winston Churchill, whose barometer was showing "FAIR" in the midst of a downpour. Supposedly he threw the thing through the window saying "There, see for yourself, you damn fool!".
Member Since: August 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 187
1794. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:02 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1793. washingtonian115
2:02 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Remember how these things look in the early morning hours only to look like it's former self once the afternoon late comes around..May I remind you of Dorian last year?,

This is honestly a modest question what is the hurricane on the front page where it's titled "billion dollar disasters".
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16412
1792. ricderr
2:01 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Wiki Answers says that an "educated prediction" is an "educated guess."
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_an_educated_pre diction

So I'm not sure you can separate the two.



cat 5...that would be my understanding also....however as from the original paragraph i pasted others see it as two different things.....just caught my curiosity :-)
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 671 Comments: 21426
1791. ricderr
2:00 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Tropical Pacific continues to warm; El Niño likely in 2014
Issued on Tuesday 6 May 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed steadily in recent months, with large warm anomalies in the ocean sub-surface (5-day values up to +6 °C) and increasingly warm sea surface temperatures. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Niño development is possible as early as July. These factors indicate that while El Niño in 2014 cannot be guaranteed, the likelihood of an event developing remains at least 70% and we are at El Niño ALERT level.
For El Niño to be established and maintained, coupling needs to occur between the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean, evident by further and persistent weakening of the trade winds and a consistent increase in cloudiness near the Date Line. These atmospheric characteristics of El Niño are forecast to become evident over the coming months.
El Niño impacts climate across much of the world, including below average rainfall in the western Pacific and Indonesian regions, and increased rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific. For Australia, El Niño is usually associated with below average rainfall over southern and eastern inland Australia, with about two thirds of El Niño events since 1900 resulting in major drought over large parts of the continent.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is likely to remain neutral through late autumn and early winter, with two of the five models surveyed suggesting a positive IOD may develop by early spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 671 Comments: 21426
1790. HurricaneAndre
1:59 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1785. JRRP:


Sal not as bad.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2517
1789. TimSoCal
1:56 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1781. CybrTeddy:
This will be tagged as an invest today, imo.


It's definitely getting "the look".
Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 594
1788. Sfloridacat5
1:56 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting ricderr:
Merriam Webster

pre%uFFFDdic%uFFFDtion
noun \pri-%u02C8dik-sh%u0259n\

: a statement about what will happen or might happen in the future

: the act of saying what will happen in the future : the act of predicting something


thanx cat5....now how does that differ from an educated guess....not looking for right or wrong here......because i think you can argue they are one and the same...but how do others see the difference as i do not


I guess it all depends on how you look at things. I know in reading, they are one in the same.

Here's an example from a reading strategy.

A prediction is an educated guess about something that will come later in the text. (http://udleditions.cast.org/strategy_predict.html ).

Wiki Answers says that an "educated prediction" is an "educated guess."
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_an_educated_pre diction

So I'm not sure you can separate the two.


Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6111
1787. GTstormChaserCaleb
1:53 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1781. CybrTeddy:

This will be tagged as an invest today, imo.

Good morning everyone. Now that is one healthy looking Tropical Disturbance.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
1786. ricderr
1:49 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Merriam Webster

pre·dic·tion
noun \pri-ˈdik-shən\

: a statement about what will happen or might happen in the future

: the act of saying what will happen in the future : the act of predicting something


thanx cat5....now how does that differ from an educated guess....not looking for right or wrong here......because i think you can argue they are one and the same...but how do others see the difference as i do not
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 671 Comments: 21426
1785. JRRP
1:46 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5354
1784. islander101010
1:46 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
watching the tail end of the front just north of hispanola
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4334
1783. Sfloridacat5
1:43 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting ricderr:
At best you're demonstrating your ignorance here. Hurricane season predictions aren't real predictions. They're educated guesses. There is no model in existence that has any skill when it comes to hurricane season predictions. They can look at analogs and climatology, but that's about it.


i find this paragraph interesting....can someone define the difference between a prediction and an educated guess?



Merriam Webster

pre·dic·tion
noun \pri-ˈdik-shən\

: a statement about what will happen or might happen in the future

: the act of saying what will happen in the future : the act of predicting something

Related Words


foreboding, harbinger, omen, portent, prevision, prospectus, sign; anticipation, foreknowledge; foresight; conjecture, guess, surmise
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6111
1782. ricderr
1:32 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
At best you're demonstrating your ignorance here. Hurricane season predictions aren't real predictions. They're educated guesses. There is no model in existence that has any skill when it comes to hurricane season predictions. They can look at analogs and climatology, but that's about it.


i find this paragraph interesting....can someone define the difference between a prediction and an educated guess?
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 671 Comments: 21426
1781. CybrTeddy
1:30 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
This will be tagged as an invest today, imo.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
1780. Torito
1:16 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Did the blog glitch again?....
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1779. Xyrus2000
1:08 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1726. sar2401:


So you're saying people "who've studied a subject for years/decades are considered "objectively qualified" " are, merely by their level of education, objectively successful? Even if they blow every forecast they make?


Not even close to what I was implying. People who are objectively qualified in their field make mistakes. They make errors. They have biases. They can fail. Even the best people screw up. You're deliberately misinterpreting what I wrote.

In fact, scientists in general have more failures than successes. That's the nature of studying the unknown. Countless hypothesis studied then rejected. For every published paper you see and breakthrough you read about there are hundreds (if not more) that were thrown out for being wrong. The same goes for inventions or any other major innovations.

More on topic, models are not perfect. The data we feed them are not perfect. Our observations are not perfect. The results are not perfect. Meteorologist take what the models show, combine that with their own knowledge and experience, and try to come up with the most accurate forecast. THIS IS HARD TO DO.


Not in any world I live in. The end product has to be able to be at least moderately correct to measure success. Presumably, better science will lead to a greater probability of success, but science alone is an ingredient in the stew, not the stew itself. The end product is how the stew tastes. If you're telling me the most highly trained meteorologist in the world that, for whatever reason, couldn't properly interpret a surface map and make a forecast at least as good as the average meteorologist would still be considered employable, let alone successful, then you live in a really different world than me.


Where are you getting this from? I said nothing of the sort. If a highly skilled person screws up, they screw up. If they can provide a reasonable explanation then not only themselves but everyone can learn from those mistakes. But there is no such thing as an infallible person. A top meteorologist can still miss something that someone else catches. That doesn't make him or her a failure.

If someone consistently fails, then they aren't really a top meteorologist, are they?

Your dismissive attitude toward TV mets, many of whom do have a degree in meteorology, just not an advanced degree, is just typical science snobbery. There are some, like Dick Goddard in Cleveland, and James Spann in Birmingham, that can more than hold their own in forecasting with any meteorologist with an advanced degree.


I wasn't being dismissive, or dealing out a dose of "scientific snobbery". I was being factual. The requirements for becoming a TV met are lower than those required for working in the NWS nerve centers. That in no way means that there aren't TV mets who couldn't work for the NWS if they wanted to.
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1778. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:07 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1776. Torito:

All eyes on the EPAC...

It looks better than yesterday... Maybe it has a shot. Just maybe.


its got to persist from now and the next 18 hrs or so if its still there by sunset may get tag at least first invest
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1777. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:06 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST May 6 2014
==========================
Yesterday's low pressure area has intensified into a well marked low pressure area over the Comorin area and neighborhood.

The low pressure area will move northwestward and concentrate into a depression by tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44749
1776. Torito
1:05 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
All eyes on the EPAC...





It looks better than yesterday... Maybe it has a shot. Just maybe.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1775. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:03 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1773. nrtiwlnvragn:

Gonna be one of those days on the blog...... must find other interests.
it will be alright nrt
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1774. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:02 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1772. originalLT:

Can't wait to see how Joe Bastardi and others, blast the report. Like to hear their denials, point by point--if they can.
its to be like a snowball rolling down hill getting bigger and bigger
faster and faster as we move along except on this hill there is no bottom to smash into so it will be forever rolling down the hill

enjoy the ride
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1773. nrtiwlnvragn
1:00 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Gonna be one of those days on the blog...... must find other interests.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10876
1772. originalLT
12:58 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Can't wait to see how Joe Bastardi and others, blast the report. Like to hear their denials, point by point--if they can.
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7416
1771. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:56 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1769. Neapolitan:



I'm hoping (imagining?) that Dr. Masters will post a new blog entry to talk about what's found in that report, which was just released:





faster and faster
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1770. Sfloridacat5
12:52 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Here's a link to the Climate Report

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
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1769. Neapolitan
12:49 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1760. Sfloridacat5:

Al Roker (Today Show) is going to interview the President about the release of the New Climate Assessment Report...


I'm hoping (imagining?) that Dr. Masters will post a new blog entry to talk about what's found in that report, which was just released:

"Global warming is affecting where and how Americans live and work, and evidence is mounting that burning fossil fuels has made extreme weather such as heat waves and heavy precipitation much more likely in the USA, according to a massive federal report released Tuesday at the White House.

"Climate change is here and now, and not in some distant time or place," said Texas Tech University climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe, one of the authors of the 1,100-page National Climate Assessment (NCA), the largest, most comprehensive U.S.-focused climate change report ever produced."

-------------------------

"Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present," a draft version of the report says. The evidence is visible everywhere from the top of the atmosphere to the bottom of the ocean, it goes on.

"Americans are noticing changes all around them. Summers are longer and hotter, and periods of extreme heat last longer than any living American has ever experienced. Winters are generally shorter and warmer. Rain comes in heavier downpours, though in many regions there are longer dry spells in between.">


Alarming stuff, indeed. We are headed for deep, deep trouble, and we're getting there faster than any scientist ever thought possible.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
1768. nrtiwlnvragn
12:43 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1739. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

TEST TEST TEST



The yearly Navy exercise that affects every installation on the East Coast.

Link of source for those who question
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10876
1767. ColoradoBob1
12:23 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1759. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ABNORMAL TEMP DATA FOR APIL 2014



Aqua/MODIS
2014/126
05/06/2014
07:30 UTC
Fires in southcentral Russia

Link
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1766. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:23 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
I will I start in 30mins as soon as the kids are all out the door
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1765. ncstorm
12:21 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1764. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya right nc I will get right on that

have a good day at work

source blogger NC


You too Keep..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
1764. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:19 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1762. ncstorm:

Good Morning..and off to work..remember to link your sources..

thats a big one..


ya right nc I will get right on that

have a good day at work

source " blogger NC"
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1763. ColoradoBob1
12:18 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Drought Plagues Brazil's Biggest City

SÃO PAULO--Officials vowed not to ration water in São Paulo even as a drought reduced the main reservoir serving South America's largest city to a record low just weeks before it hosts the opening game for soccer's World Cup.

The greater São Paulo region has already enacted conservation measures to try to reduce water consumption by its 20 million residents. The governor of São Paulo state, Geraldo Alckmin, who is running in state elections in October, vowed on Sunday not to ration this year.

Despite his pledge, hundreds of thousands of metropolitan residents are already seeing their water supplies reduced, a sign critics say that conditions are worse than São Paulo officials will admit publicly.

As officials on Monday said the main reservoir serving São Paulo reached 10% of capacity, its lowest level on record--amid environmental degradation and a drought--some predicted solutions will only get tougher the longer authorities put off emergency measures.


Link
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1762. ncstorm
12:17 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Good Morning..and off to work..remember to link your sources..

thats a big one..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14462
1761. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:14 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1757. weathermanwannabe:

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th.

Would be an early start to the E-Pac season if this one goes. Would only note (and I still cannot post the CIMMS sheer charts for some reason) that the system is headed towards sheer bands of around 20 knots on the western and northern flank. The healthiest southern flank of the disturbance is in the lowest sheer at the moment where the main convection is firing over the warmest ssts as well.



if it does form its only 9 days early the 15th is next Thursday
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1760. Sfloridacat5
12:12 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Al Roker (Today Show) is going to interview the President about the release of the New Climate Assessment Report.

Welcome to the National Climate Assessment

The National Climate Assessment summarizes the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future.

A team of more than 300 experts guided by a 60-member Federal Advisory Committee produced the report, which was extensively reviewed by the public and experts, including federal agencies and a panel of the National Academy of Sciences.

60 member "Advisory Committee."
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6111
1759. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:08 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
ABNORMAL TEMP DATA FOR APIL 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1758. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:06 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1757. weathermanwannabe
12:02 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th.

Would be an early start to the E-Pac season if this one goes. Would only note (and I still cannot post the CIMMS sheer charts for some reason) that the system is headed towards sheer bands of around 20 knots on the western and northern flank. The healthiest southern flank of the disturbance is in the lowest sheer at the moment where the main convection is firing over the warmest ssts as well.


Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8798
1756. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:00 PM GMT on May 06, 2014
XX/AOI/E
MARK
9.1N 110.3W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1755. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:52 AM GMT on May 06, 2014
Quoting 1752. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning; I see Keeper is on it with the potential E-Pac system.  Here is the current rainbow loop shot.  A healthy moist environment where the storm is tying to spin up right around 10N-111W:





its not tying to spin up it is spinning up nicly too at the moment
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1754. ColoradoBob1
11:52 AM GMT on May 06, 2014
Australia issued an El Nino alert on expectations the weather-altering pattern will probably develop as early as July, potentially bringing drought across the Asia-Pacific region and heavier-than-usual rains to South America.

The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed steadily in recent months, the Bureau of Meteorology said on its website today, citing large anomalies below the surface and increasingly warm surface temperatures. Models suggested that the likelihood of an event is at least 70 percent, the government forecaster said.


Link
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1753. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:50 AM GMT on May 06, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1752. weathermanwannabe
11:49 AM GMT on May 06, 2014
Good Morning; I see Keeper is on it with the potential E-Pac system.  Here is the current rainbow loop shot.  A healthy moist environment where the storm is tying to spin up right around 10N-111W:




Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8798
1751. ColoradoBob1
11:44 AM GMT on May 06, 2014
Dr Wenju Cai, a climate expert at Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, said rises in Pacific Ocean temperature above those seen in previous El Nino years and the quick movement of warm water eastwards had raised fears of a significant event.

"I think this event has lots of characteristics with a strong El Nino," said Cai.

"A strong El Nino appears early and we have seen this event over the last couple of months, which is unusual; the wind that has caused the warming is quite large and there is what we call the pre-conditioned effects, where you must have a lot of heat already in the system to have a big El Nino event."


Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.