More Tornado Strikes May Occur in Mobile Home Parks; Weekend Plains Tornado Outbreak?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:47 PM GMT on April 25, 2014

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It's well-known that one should avoid mobile homes during a tornado, as their relatively flimsy construction and tendency to roll when exposed to high winds leads to numerous deaths each tornado season. The majority of tornado deaths occur in mobile homes for this reason, but tornado experts have long wondered why mobile home parks seem to get disproportionately more tornado strikes than other residential areas. New research by Purdue University researchers Olivia Kellner and Dev Niyogi suggests that "transitions zones"--areas where dramatically different landscapes meet, like where a city fades into farmland, or a forest meets a plain--are more prone to tornado touch downs. Since mobile home parks are often located at the edge of built-up areas, they may actually get hit more often.


Figure 1. Damage to 2-year-old C.J. Martin's mobile home park near Evansville, Indiana due to a November 6, 2005 tornado. Twenty people. including C.J., died in the F3 tornado that devastated his Eastbrook Mobile Home Park in Evansville. The storm hit at 2am, when many residents were asleep and didn't hear the tornado sirens. C.J.'s mother, Kathryn Martin, pushed lawmakers to adopt a bill requiring all mobile homes in Indiana to have a weather radio with a tone alert system, which could have saved many lives in the mobile home park that night. C.J.'s Law was signed into law by Indiana governor Mitch Daniels later that year. Image credit: Paducah, KY NWS.

The researchers studied where tornadoes touched down in Indiana between 1950 and 2012, and found that 61% of tornado touchdowns occurred within 1 kilometer (about 0.62 mile) of urban areas, and 43% fell within 1 kilometer of forest. Kellner said the percentages suggest that certain locations may increase the likelihood of tornado touchdowns due to increased "surface roughness"--an abrupt change in the height of land surface features, which can stretch or squash a column of air, increasing its rate of spin, which could contribute to the formation of tornadoes. Forecasters and city planners may need to pay closer attention to these "transition zones" to better understand tornado risks, said Olivia Kellner, doctoral student in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences in a press release. "There are still many unanswered questions about tornado climatology, but what we're finding is that there may be a relationship between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere that contributes to where tornadoes tend to touch down." The study also found that tornado touchdowns in urban areas tend to occur at about 1 and 10 miles from the city center. Kellner said these "rings" of increased tornado activity could be related to how cities are developed. "Cities impact the surrounding climate in terms of regional airflow and temperature," she said. "The size of cities, what they're made of and the heat they produce are factors that could affect the microclimate."

Original study: Kellner, O., and D. Niyogi, 2014, Land-surface Heterogeneity Signature in Tornado Climatology? An Illustrative Analysis over Indiana 1950-2012, Earth Interactions, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2013EI000548.1


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Sunday, April 27, 2014, as issued on Friday, April 25, by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Weekend tornado and severe weather outbreak coming for the Plains
A multi-day severe weather event is expected Saturday, Sunday, and Monday across the Central U.S., as a strong low pressure system will spawn supercell thunderstorms capable of generating large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes. The most dangerous day appears to be Sunday, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued their "Moderate Risk" forecast of severe weather over portions of Arkansas , Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana that day. The action will begin Saturday afternoon along a swath from Central Texas northwards into Oklahoma and Kansas, but at present, Saturday's threat warrants only a "Slight Risk" classification from SPC. This weekend's severe weather outbreak has the potential to be the most dangerous one of this relatively quiet 2014, which has yet to spawn a killer tornado. The relatively cool and dry weather across Tornado Alley so far this year has led to no EF-3 or stronger tornadoes as of April 24, which is a record-long wait since modern tornado records began in 1950. According to tornado historian Tom Grazulis' book, Significant Tornadoes 1680-1991, "serious efforts" to document all tornadoes began in 1953, which was the first full year of tornado watches issued by the U.S. Weather Bureau, now the National Weather Service.

I'll have a new post on Monday. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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1911. panzerfaust
10:38 AM GMT on May 02, 2014
"Despite the clear value of drones in disaster response ..."

Speaking as a pilot, there is a clear danger to aircraft by allowing untrained and unlicensed but enthusiastic people with no knowledge of airspace restrictions - such as airport approach paths - to launch such vehicles into the air.

The air over disaster areas typically is restricted to flight by only aircraft involved in rescue, fire-fighting and damage assessment and is generally coordinated by air traffic control (ATC).

To have unexpected air traffic not under ATC control - be it private planes, or ground controlled drones - blundering about in these critical areas not only can impede disaster response but are collision hazards.

The reason to not go flying your great little drone with the go-pro on it into such areas is not so that you can avoid being fined, but so that you can avoid creating a hazard to aerial navigation which could well result in damage to, or loss of, emergency aircraft and injury or death to the crews.

Please, do not fly drones over disaster areas.

The FAA is right on this one.
Member Since: October 20, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
1910. weathermanwannabe
3:57 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Floridians in the Peninsula don't face the pervasive major tornado spring threat that people in the mid-west face every year; we do have some destructive spring tornadoes, and in the NE quadrant of land falling hurricanes, but the dynamics for the proliferation of potential E-3's and higher in Spring is not a very frequent event.

With that being said, the Florida Panhandle has been in moderate risk SPC threats over the years in past Spring occasions and some of those "mid-west" dynamics can push further South with the right trajectory.  Point being that Southern Alabama and Georgia, adjacent to the Panhandle, are other potential hot spots with the right system................Camilla, Georgia, just to the North of the Marianna area in Florida, has seen some pretty strong and devastating tornadoes over the years; I was in Marianna several years ago when the last big Camila tornado leveled a school there and we were all commenting on how lucky we were, and how it could just have easily been us, because Camila is not that far away and the entire area was in the moderate risk area that afternoon.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9018
1909. hydrus
1:40 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1894. StormTrackerScott:



That's insane largo! I wonder if SPC issues a high risk later.
They are discussing it right now.

IN THE WAKE OF THESE INITIAL STORMS...CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS BY AFTERNOON ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE
EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM WRN OR MIDDLE TN SWWD THROUGH NRN/CNTRL
MS INTO NERN LA. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
INDICATE THAT A PRONOUNCED EML HAS BEEN ADVECTED EWD INTO THE REGION
WITH 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM. THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVERLIE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING
RATIOS OF 13.5-15.5 G PER KG/ WHICH WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG IN AREAS WHERE STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING CAN
OCCUR. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALIGN WITH 50-70 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
POTENTIALLY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF INTENSE TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. MESOSCALE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK LATER
TODAY.

THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
DICTATED BY THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE CURRENT COLD POOL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE LOWER OH INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. WHERE STRONGER
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING CAN OCCUR...THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL NWD INTO SRN
PARTS OF THE MID OH VALLEY.

AN EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS INTO ONE OR
MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER PARTS OF THE MID OH AND TN VALLEYS SWD
TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO
THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ERN GULF STATES WITH A CONTINUING
THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS.

...MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...

ANALOGOUS TO YESTERDAY/S EVENTS OVER CNTRL NEB...A SIMILAR SETUP
WILL EVOLVE OVER THE REGION TODAY WHEREBY THE MIDLEVEL COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERLIES A WARMING BOUNDARY
LAYER...YIELDING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. A
PRONOUNCED GRADIENT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST BY
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT ALONG THE
OCCLUDED FRONT OVER SRN IA INTO W-CNTRL IL...TO 50-60 KT OVER
CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF IL/IND AND POINTS SOUTH. AS SUCH...MIXED STORM
MODES WILL LIKELY EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING MULTICELL AND
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF A
VERTICAL-VORTICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT.

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20901
1908. Dakster
1:39 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1905. weathermanwannabe:

And one comment for some of the bloggers and not a personal attack. It is a good idea during these types of severe weather events (whether tornado outbreaks or hurricanes) to try and stay on topic as lots of folks actually check in on the blog for pertinent information during these events. It was extremely distracting yesterday afternoon, in the middle of the outbreak, to see continued posts and charts on El Nino............................


Yep - I even took a backseat to posting yesterday.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10065
1907. hydrus
1:37 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1905. weathermanwannabe:

And one comment for some of the bloggers and not a personal attack. It is a good idea during these types of severe weather events (whether tornado outbreaks or hurricanes) to try and stay on topic as lots of folks actually check in on the blog for pertinent information during these events. It was extremely distracting yesterday afternoon, in the middle of the outbreak, to see continued posts and charts on El Nino............................
Yep...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20901
1906. StormWx
1:34 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Its about summer time in FL these days, got that southerly flow.

Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 919
1905. weathermanwannabe
1:20 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
And one comment for some of the bloggers and not a personal attack. It is a good idea during these types of severe weather events (whether tornado outbreaks or hurricanes) to try and stay on topic as lots of folks actually check in on the blog for pertinent information during these events. It was extremely distracting yesterday afternoon, in the middle of the outbreak, to see continued posts and charts on El Nino............................
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9018
1904. VirginIslandsVisitor
1:18 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Good morning, everyone

It's 82 (already above the forecasted 81), feeling like 86, a few clouds, with very little breeze this morning. Looking like a hot day on its way.

We had a wonderful afternoon watching the boat races, sipping a few cold ones and caught up on the latest melee(gossip) amongst the fishermen.

The afternoon was brought to a sudden standstill by a shootout nearby that involved a few young men that we know. It makes me so angry when these things happen. Scuttlebutt has it that this was a "retaliation" shooting and that it's not finished yet. It's this never-ending circle of violence that mars the reputation of this small piece of paradise I call home that just makes me sick. :-(

My thoughts and prayers to all affected by yesterday's weather and the next couple of days.

Lindy

(sorry for venting)
Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 617
1903. LargoFl
1:08 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
LATER TODAY...THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER BEGINS TO INCREASE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY MONDAY EVENING...AND
PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
CAMDEN...GROVE HILL... CHATOM...TO LEAKESVILLE LINE.
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY LARGE HAIL OF GOLF BALL SIZE OR
LARGER ARE ALL THREATS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STRONG...LONG TRACKED TORNADO OVER THESE AREAS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER EXPANDS EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ALL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINS THIS PAST MONTH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND RAIN SOAKED GROUND CONDITIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES FROM
THIS STORM EVENT INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF AND FLASH
FLOODING.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37848
1902. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
1:07 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1901. LargoFl
1:06 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
storms are gonna catch folks while their sleeping,overnight severe..................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37848
1900. weathermanwannabe
1:06 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Good Morning. Three comments on the tornado outbreak yesterday:

Condolences to the Families of the lost ones and those impacted and who lost their homes.

Stresses the importance of NOAA radios and needed news and media coverage (by radio, broadcast TV, or dish/cable) in rural pockets as well as the issue of people in these same areas having tornado shelters to evacuate to (as well as government subsidies or tax credits to help with the cost of building one).

Dr. Forbes is the best thing on TWC; I was very impressed by his coverage, and explanations of the real time radar signatures, along with Cantore stationed at SPC; it was a great combination and they get an A+.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9018
1899. LargoFl
1:04 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
every threat level is HIGH....folks take the warnings seriously...................................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37848
1898. Waltanater
1:04 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
It's Monday, 9AM! Where's the new POST?! Chop, chop! People's lives are in the balance here!
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1471
1897. LargoFl
1:02 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1894. StormTrackerScott:



That's insane largo! I wonder if SPC issues a high risk later.
I think if you check around the nws sites there ARE warning of severe storms this evening..guess with daytime heating etc these storms will explode..gee this is awful...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37848
1896. StormTrackerScott
1:02 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1895. LargoFl:


Latest runs of the GFS and Euro are suggesting that the severe weather risk will spread into FL later in the week.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2657
1895. LargoFl
1:01 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37848
1894. StormTrackerScott
1:00 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1893. LargoFl:
gee going to be some mean supercell storms this evening there.............................


That's insane largo! I wonder if SPC issues a high risk later.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2657
1893. LargoFl
12:58 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
gee going to be some mean supercell storms this evening there.............................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37848
1892. TropicTraveler
12:58 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1827. sar2401:

Yeah, I know. :-( Of course, it didn't look so bad early yesterday either. It stil 70 with a dewpoint of 67, but no fog, not even haze. The air smells...I don't know...smells funny. I don't know if you've ever been in a real jungle, but it smells like a dank jungle. We're still getting a good south wind and the Gulf flow is really cranking. Since I'm SE AL, I figure I get the worst of it overnight and into Tuesday morning. Great. Radar dog will be psycho all night...again. Well, all I can do is hope that whatever we get isn't as bad as what happened yesterday. Has anyone heard what estimated path length on the monster in Arkansas was?


Last night wx channel was measuring at 60 miles but it wasn't done yet. That was after it had been on the ground for almost 2 hours.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 924
1891. StormTrackerScott
12:51 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1888. JTDailyUpdate:


Yeah, especially when you see their footage that I posted in 1810


I really don't get it. Why put yourself in so much danger to risk your life just to get that money shot.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2657
1890. TropicTraveler
12:51 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1810. JTDailyUpdate:
Not trying to take attention away from death and destruction that these tornados brought. But, in regards to the Hail Angels getting hit by the tornado, I think this should be posted on the blog especially since it hasn't been one year since El Rino.

Link


Very scary. I hope today's chasers stay out of harms way. My sympathy to those affected by these storms. It's eerie that last night's long track tornado came so close to Joplin. Can't even imagine what went through the minds of those who endured this - and it isn't over yet. Thanks for posting this reminder that you can be way too close to the storm.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 924
1889. washingtonian115
12:50 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1887. StormTrackerScott:



Storm track maybe right up the east coast.


Knowing the D.C bias usually after a epic winter a pathetic or less impressive one follows.Take 09-010 and 010-011 for example.I got 76 inches at my house for the winter (09-010).Only to have 15 the next and 011-012?...well we all know how that went...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16691
1888. JTDailyUpdate
12:49 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1873. StormTrackerScott:



Hails stormchasing crew got hit yesterday and are lucky to be alive.


Yeah, especially when you see their footage that I posted in 1810
Member Since: August 19, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 341
1887. StormTrackerScott
12:46 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1884. washingtonian115:
I edited my post.I'm hoping that we do get more snow as the past few winters before 013-014 have sucked eggs.It's been very rare since the 80's to have two back to back impressive winters.


Storm track maybe right up the east coast. It's likely that we will have phasing from time to time with the Polar jet causing explosive storms to form near the Mid Atlantic.


Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2657
1886. StormTrackerScott
12:45 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1876. washingtonian115:
I hope this tornado is west bound..which is good for D.C snow.If it's to close to the S.A coast (like 1997) then that means nothing but rain and a light jacket for the winter.


MattRogers
4/24/2014 2:07 PM EDT
I didn't see any- the bigger issue is what kind of El Ni�o do we get. Is it west-based like 09-10 and 02-03 (big snow!) or more east-based like (04-05 or 06-07 with sparse snow).


He's wrong Washi as 04 and 05 were modiki

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2657
1885. StormWx
12:44 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Those that were saying this would be a weak El-Nino and thats it have been shot down now as we are in a rapid transition to a moderate to strong El-Nino over the next 3 to 4 weeks.


Scotty, no one has a magic crystal ball. Your guess is as good as mine when i say weak and you say strong. Remember, its a 90 day average and the values will continue to fluctuate. Exciting though i know bubba!
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 919
1884. washingtonian115
12:44 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1879. StormTrackerScott:



Not true Washi infact some well known met's are concerned from FL up to the mid Atlantic for major Nor Easters this Winter and you may get dumped with more snow than you think..
I edited my post.I'm hoping that we do get more snow as the past few winters before 013-014 have sucked eggs.It's been very rare since the 80's to have two back to back impressive winters.

1882. MahFL
12:40 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
You can delete that as I have edited it.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16691
1883. StormTrackerScott
12:42 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1881. StormWx:


The Nino 3.4 is holding steady below 0.5C, so we are almost there but not quite. Its inevitable though with all that warm water ready to surface.



Nino 1&2 has exploded with warmth just in the last few days and its continuing to warm at a rapid rate infact an average of .08 with each 6 hour update on the CDAS site
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2657
1882. MahFL
12:40 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1876. washingtonian115:

I hope this tornado is west bound..which is good for D.C snow.If it's to close to the S.A coast (like 1997) then that means nothing but rain and a light jacket for the winter.


Tornado ?
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3449
1881. StormWx
12:39 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I think with El-Nino coming the next 12 to 18 months looks prime for tornadoes especially November thru March next year from Texas to FL.


The Nino 3.4 is holding steady below 0.5C, so we are almost there but not quite. Its inevitable though with all that warm water ready to surface.

Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 919
1880. Tazmanian
12:39 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
not a hole lot of severe weather going on in MS and AL things wil be nuts there later
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114914
1879. StormTrackerScott
12:39 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1876. washingtonian115:
I hope this tornado is west bound..which is good for D.C snow.If it's to close to the S.A coast (like 1997) then that means nothing but rain and a light jacket for the winter.


Not true Washi infact some well known met's are concerned from FL up to the mid Atlantic for major Nor Easters this Winter and you may get dumped with more snow than you think..
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2657
1878. Tazmanian
12:39 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It's popping up rapidly and spreading west. Those that were saying this would be a weak El-Nino and thats it have been shot down now as we are in a rapid transition to a moderate to strong El-Nino over the next 3 to 4 weeks. Needless to say this record sub surface warm pool is surfacing now.


wow


i call them EL nino downcaster lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114914
1877. StormTrackerScott
12:37 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1874. Tazmanian:



is that a area of red poping up off the coast




It's popping up rapidly and spreading west. Those that were saying this would be a weak El-Nino well that's been shot down now as we are in a rapid transition to a moderate to strong El-Nino over the next 3 to 4 weeks. Needless to say this record sub surface warm pool is surfacing now.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2657
1876. washingtonian115
12:35 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
I hope this el nino is west bound..which is good for D.C snow.If it's to close to the S.A coast (like 1997) then that means nothing but rain and a light jacket for the winter.


MattRogers
4/24/2014 2:07 PM EDT
I didn't see any- the bigger issue is what kind of El Ni%uFFFDo do we get. Is it west-based like 09-10 and 02-03 (big snow!) or more east-based like (04-05 or 06-07 with sparse snow).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16691
1875. StormTrackerScott
12:33 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
I think with El-Nino coming the next 12 to 18 months looks prime for tornadoes especially November thru March next year from Texas to FL.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2657
1874. Tazmanian
12:32 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Look at how fast the transition to El-Nino has went so far. Incredible!!

4/3/14


4/28/14



is that a area of red poping up off the coast


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114914
1873. StormTrackerScott
12:31 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1871. biff4ugo:
Chasers, be safe out there.


Hails stormchasing crew got hit yesterday and are lucky to be alive.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2657
1872. StormTrackerScott
12:23 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
We are neck and neck with 1997 with 1997 in a slight lead right now with Nino 1&2 being higher the later part of April 1997. However Nino 4, Nino 3, and Nino 3.4 are higher in 2014 so far.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2657
1871. biff4ugo
12:23 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Chasers, be safe out there.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1566
1870. washingtonian115
12:20 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
You guys finally have your tornado season.Is this what you really wanted?.Dang I wish our luck could have continued.The U.S would have gone the longest stretch without a tornado death in a long time.As i said before I feared people were not prepared for this and even today I feel that way.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16691
1869. StormTrackerScott
12:20 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Look at how fast the transition to El-Nino has gone so far. Incredible!!

4/3/14


4/28/14
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2657
1868. StormTrackerScott
12:18 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1867. yonzabam:


I'm no expert, but I've read that 'discrete' supercells are much more dangerous than a continuous line for spawning tornadoes, and I'm guessing that those red dots are what's meant by 'discrete'.


They are much more dangerous as those cells that are being depicted would be individual supercells. Supercells are rotating thunderstorms.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2657
1867. yonzabam
12:14 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Quoting 1854. GeorgiaStormz:

The HRRR kills of this morning's line after it passes through MS/AL, and then develops these monsters by 4-7pm




I'm concerned


I'm no expert, but I've read that 'discrete' supercells are much more dangerous than a continuous line for spawning tornadoes, and I'm guessing that those red dots are what's meant by 'discrete'.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2918
1866. LAbonbon
12:00 PM GMT on April 28, 2014
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
1865. LAbonbon
11:58 AM GMT on April 28, 2014
TORNADO WARNING
TNC047-075-157-167-281230-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0029.140428T1150Z-140428T1230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT

* AT 650 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DIXONVILLE...OR 12
MILES EAST OF MILLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RURAL AREAS
OF NORTHEASTERN SHELBY...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON
AND SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

.TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
1864. Luisport
11:56 AM GMT on April 28, 2014

TWC Breaking @TWCBreaking

Possible rotation along squall line NE of Memphis. A #tornado may develop quickly & may be rain-wrapped. pic.twitter.com/5qdS5Y0CeB
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
1863. Waltanater
11:53 AM GMT on April 28, 2014
What a nice day it is! Hot and sunny....not a cloud in the sky! You couldn't ask for a more perfect day here.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1471
1862. biff4ugo
11:47 AM GMT on April 28, 2014
Astrometeor,

If the ice crystals are reflecting a false sun in the form of a pillar, doesn't it make sense that they would also reflect a false and fainter halo, also an ice reflectance phenomenon?
Aren’t the pillars at the right locations for the edges of a halo, if the center of the pillar was the center of the sun?
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1566
1861. LargoFl
11:45 AM GMT on April 28, 2014
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
FROM DRUM POINT TO SMITH POINT...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM COBB
ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...AND TANGIER SOUND. IN ADDITION...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM
POOLES ISLAND TO DRUM POINT INCLUDING ALL INLETS AS WELL AS THE
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING MAY LEAD TO FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
AS WELL AS ON CREEKS AND SMALLER RIVERS.

THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PARTICULARLY METRO WASHINGTON DC
INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND A NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FROM TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARYLAND PORTION
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37848

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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