Earth Has Its 4th Warmest March on Record; Weekend Severe Weather Outbreak Coming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on April 23, 2014

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March 2014 was the globe's 4th warmest March since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. March 2014 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were also the 5th warmest on record. The year-to-date January - March period has been the 7th warmest on record for the globe. Global satellite-measured temperatures in March 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 11th or 9th warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during March was the 6th lowest in the 48-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of March 2014 in his March 2014 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2014, the 4th warmest March for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Much of Europe had a top-five warmest March, including Austria (2nd), Norway (3rd), Denmark (4th), Germany (3rd), Latvia (3rd), the Netherlands (3rd), and Slovakia (1st.) In the U.S., Vermont had its coldest March on record, and Michigan, New York, Maine, and New Hampshire all had top-five coldest Marches on record. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .



One billion-dollar weather disaster in March 2014: Drought in Brazil
One billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the Earth during March 2014: Southeastern Brazil's worst drought in 50 years, which has cost at least $4.3 billion so far this year, according to the March 2014 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. This is the third most expensive natural disaster in Brazil's history, and the second consecutive year of disastrous drought in the country. Drought in Northeast Brazil during the first five months of 2013 caused an estimated $8 billion in damage--Brazil's second most expensive natural disaster in recorded history. According to the international disaster database EM-DAT, Brazil's costliest natural disaster was the drought of 1978 ($2.3 billion in 1978 dollars, or $8.3 billion 2014 dollars.)


Disaster 1. Cattle in a drought-parched filed in Quixada, Ceara state, Brazil on January 2, 2014. Small farmers in Ceara state have not able to harvest corn to feed cattle, and have been selling them at a loss. Aurelien Francisco Barros/AFP/Getty Images.


Figure 2. The deadliest U.S. weather disaster of March 2014 was the tragic landslide at Oso, Washington that killed 41 people and did $10 million in damage. The landslide was triggered by record March rains that saturated the soils. The nearby Seattle airport measured 9.44” (240 mm) of precipitation in March, a new record for the month. Photo by Washington State Patrol.

An El Niño Watch continues
March 2014 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, but NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch for the summer and fall of 2014, giving a greater than 50% chance that an El Niño event will occur by the summer. The April 10 El Niño discussion from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that "there remains considerable uncertainty as to when El Niño will develop and how strong it may become. This uncertainty is amplified by the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring." None of the El Niño models (updated in mid-April 2014) predict La Niña conditions for peak hurricane season, August-September-October 2014, and 16 of 20 predict El Niño conditions. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer for three consecutive months for an El Niño episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were +0.2°C from average as of April 21. El Niño conditions tend to make quieter than average Atlantic hurricane seasons, due to an increase in upper-level winds that create strong wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. There is currently a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) over the equatorial Pacific Ocean that is helping push warm water eastwards towards South America. If this Westerly Wind Burst persists and expands eastwards through early May, the odds of an El Niño event will increase.

Arctic sea ice falls to 5th lowest March extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during March was 5th lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The winter maximum extent of Arctic sea ice came on March 21, and was the 5th lowest such peak on record. Temperatures in the Arctic were 2 - 6°C (4 -11°F) above average during the last half of the month, but a late-season surge in ice extent came as the Arctic Oscillation turned strongly positive the second week of March, with unusually low sea level pressure in the eastern Arctic and the northern North Atlantic. The associated pattern of surface winds helped to spread out the ice pack, keeping ice extent greater than it would have been. There was a modest increase in thick, multi-year ice over the winter, and the Arctic is in better shape to resist a record summer melt season this year than it was in 2013.


Figure 2. Regions most at risk of severe weather for the period Saturday, April 26 - Monday, April 28, 2014, as predicted by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center at 4:15 am EDT Wednesday, April 23, 2014.

Weekend tornado and severe weather outbreak coming for the Plains
A significant multi-day severe weather event is expected Saturday, Sunday, and Monday across the Central U.S. A strong low pressure system will trundle slowly across the region, spawning supercell thunderstorms capable of generating large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes. The action will begin Saturday afternoon along a swath from Central Texas northwards into Oklahoma and Kansas, then gradually shift eastwards on Sunday and Monday. Recent runs of the GFS and European model have been very consistent in showing moderate to extreme instability in the warm air ahead of the storm's cold front Saturday through Monday, and this weekend's severe weather outbreak has the potential to be the most dangerous one of this relatively quiet 2014. This year has yet to spawn a killer tornado, setting a new record for latest date of the year's first killer tornado. The previous record belonged to 2002, when the year's first killer tornado struck April 21 (an F-3 that killed a man in a mobile home in a rural area of Wayne County, Illinois.) The relatively cool and dry weather across Tornado Alley so far this year has led to no EF-3 or stronger tornadoes as of April 23, and that's also a record-long wait since modern tornado records began in 1950. According to tornado historian Tom Grazulis' book, Significant Tornadoes 1680-1991, "serious efforts" to document all tornadoes began in 1953, which was the first full year of tornado watches issued by the U.S. Weather Bureau, now the National Weather Service.

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

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1140. riverat544
8:22 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1116. Xyrus2000:



Svante Arrhenius first published research on anthropogenic climate change in 1896. The earliest work I'm aware of in regards to greenhouse gases was by Joseph Fourier in 1824, who showed that our planet would basically be an ice ball if it wasn't for the gases in our atmosphere.

Yes and to complete the list John Tyndall in 1859. Quoting Wikipedia: "He was the first to correctly measure the relative infrared absorptive powers of the gases nitrogen, oxygen, water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, etc."
Member Since: March 29, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 85
1139. Sfloridacat5
4:04 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
April 27th is historically a bad day for tornadoes. : 4/27/2011 (207 tornadoes)
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6780
1138. georgevandenberghe
4:03 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting washingtonian115:
I remember GFS did this last year.It kept showing a storm system every 300 hours out pushing the time frame back over and over again until finally May 30 we got under 300 hours.That's when Andrea came along.lol.So if it's showing a storm May 9th I expect the storm to form June 9th.


Since I fish down there in Mid May it always raises my interest when the GFS throws out plausible looking false alarms.

Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 18 Comments: 1736
1137. ricderr
4:00 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
I'll plan to put the shutters up on May 7th then.

dak you represent the problem....complacency.....i've had my shutters up for a month now...you can never over prepare :-)
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21628
1136. Dakster
3:51 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1086. washingtonian115:

I remember GFS did this last year.It kept showing a storm system every 300 hours out pushing the time frame back over and over again until finally May 30 we got under 300 hours.That's when Andrea came along.lol.So if it's showing a s storm May 9th I expect the storm to form June 9th.


I'll plan to put the shutters up on May 7th then.
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1135. GeorgiaStormz
3:48 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
expansive warm sector area could see storms.



just likely not too significant the further away from the MS area you go
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1134. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:47 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1133. ScottLincoln
3:44 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1084. WaterWitch11:

yahoo news posted that this severe outbreak is compared to one that happened in 1991 of course I tried to find it again & it seems to be missing. I don't think I like yahoo news too tabloidee. TWC has had my areas current temp at 69 degrees for 2 days.

Considering that there is no severe outbreak at this time, it's hard to compare it to any event.

At most, we can compare the synoptic pattern to previous days and see what days are most similar. From that, we can see if severe weather is favored, and perhaps get insights into the types of severe weather that may occur. These matches are referred to as analogs. It is possible that a severe weather event in 1991 has been considered an analog at one time or another to one of the days this weekend, at least according to the forecasted synoptic pattern from a computer model.

Analogs are one tool, of several, that forecasters can use to provide a forecast.
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1132. Patrap
3:44 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Jazz Fest Opening Day begin n 16 Minutes !!!!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128216
1131. Bluestorm5
3:44 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Granted it's NAM past 48 hours (which mean it's usually crappy by 3rd day), but this will be big concern if NAM keep up with it.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
1130. sar2401
3:44 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

As a follow-up, this is only the 13th time in history the SPC has issued a Day 3 Moderate risk. Of the other 12, every one of them remained at least Moderate risk up to the event, and 4/12 (1/3) of the 12 were further upped to High risks.

So out of the 13, how well did they verify? Did we actually severe storms and tornadoes in the areas outlined by the SPC? Since I posted this, the new blog will be in 3....2....1...
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1129. Sfloridacat5
3:43 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting georgevandenberghe:
Anyone notice the 384 hour deterministic GFS spun up a TC or STC for the
Central Bahamas?


You can't trust anything that pops up at the end of a GFS run.
We discussed this earlier this morning -how the GFS loves to do this at the end of it runs.

I'm not sure why it happens all the time.
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1128. Patrap
3:39 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Radar werking fine in Chrome this am...on my DELL Tower A.
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1127. georgevandenberghe
3:36 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Anyone notice the 06Z 4/25 384 hour deterministic GFS spun up a TC or STC for the
Central Bahamas?
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 18 Comments: 1736
1126. ScottLincoln
3:34 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1005. LAbonbon:



Okay, I checked all the radar stations in LA, MS, AL, SE TX, and the FL panhandle. None of them are showing the correct location. I randomly clicked on a few in New England and CA, and they don't bring up anything at all.

Anyone know where the blog to report things is located?

I went to that page and have clicked a few of the site links, but I guess I'm not seeing anything looking "off" to me.
Are you still having this issue?
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1125. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:28 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1115. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Day 3 Moderate risks are a rare thing.



As a follow-up, this is only the 13th time in history the SPC has issued a Day 3 Moderate risk. Of the other 12, every one of them remained at least Moderate risk up to the event, and 4/12 (1/3) of the 12 were further upped to High risks.
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1124. Patrap
3:28 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Did you hear dat?

One can almost here the new entry about to load.
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1123. Patrap
3:26 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Al Gore Is Not Giving Up
A rare, frank conversation with the former vice president and climate-change activist.


By DARREN SAMUELSOHN

April 24, 2014

Al Gore is richer and skinnier than ever, 14 years out of the White House, a tech titan with elder statesman clout, whose disdain for politics in the capital where he lived most of his life has only grown with each year he’s lived away from it. Sure, this new Gore has a great life, what with a net worth well over the $200 million mark following the sale of his Current TV network to Al Jazeera last year, that seat on the Apple board and his starring roles with two investment companies that tout their environmentally friendly business styles: London-based Generation Investment Management and Silicon Valley’s Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers. He lives well too, between his 20-room, $4 million home in Nashville’s tony Belle Meade neighborhood and a separate apartment in San Francisco’s St. Regis luxury hotel residences.


But even in his fabulously wealthy, I’m-not-a-Washingtonian-anymore phase, Gore is still a policy wonk, of course. He may be a trendy, 50-pound-lighter vegan these days, and wear the all-black uniform of the Silicon Valley gurus who have become his peers. But the former vice president still geeks out when talking about the “cost-down curve for photovoltaic electricity,” his solar-powered houseboat and the infuriating refusal of the news media and the Republican Party to acknowledge the climate change gorilla in the room.

And the new Al Gore is just as steamed as the old Al Gore about the lack of clear progress in combating global warming, a failure that clearly eats at him. When I ask Gore in a two-hour interview in his Nashville office—the longest he’s given since last summer—how he would describe his job, he says, “I want to catalyze the emergence of a solution to the climate crisis as quickly as possible. Period.”


Perhaps not surprisingly, he is much less eager to discuss the disappointments of why that is so during the presidency of a fellow Democrat who subscribes to Gore’s views on the urgency of the climate crisis – never mind his own failure to galvanize more action despite the recognition of a Nobel Prize and even an Oscar award for his climate proselytizing. And then there’s the awkward fact of his current low profile, which even Gore friends and allies tell me is very much by design.
If the old rap on Gore was that he was too boring, too stiff to succeed at the highest levels of politics—at one point, it was hard to find a mention of the former vice president’s name without the word “wooden” closely nearby—the new complaint, even from Gore’s ostensible allies, is that he’s too polarizing a figure to lead the movement against climate change, a lament I’ve heard in numerous recent interviews.
“I don’t think he’s taken seriously as the spokesman, certainly by no one in the middle,” a former House Democrat with battle scars from the last decade’s climate change debates told me. “He’s preaching to the choir. He’s a common scold.” Claire McCaskill, the Missouri Democratic senator, says any politician with a background like Gore’s is bound to be a problematic face of the climate fight. “I’d vote for a scientist,” she said in an interview. “He may be a statesman, but I think once a politician, always a politician in the eyes of many.”
The charge leaves him cold. “It’s not about me. And I’ve never tried to make it about me,” Gore, who turned 66 last month, insists. “I think that whoever puts his head up above the trenches and says ‘We’ve got to do this’ is going to attract the ire of people who don’t want to do it,” he says. “And there are plenty of them.”
“I think that’s a big statement about who he is,” says Carol Browner, the former head of the Environmental Protection Agency, who is close to Gore. “Lots of people in our business would care a lot more about being on the front page.”


much more:....
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1122. yonzabam
3:22 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1121. Ameister12:


1) I don't recall you ever telling me to not exaggerate. I've only discussed the severe threat a few times.
2) How am I exaggerating? The last several model runs have consistently been showing a significant threat for severe weather in the same area for two days in a row. Honestly, I feel that's pretty terrifying. Of course, things can change in a few days, that's why i said "If the current models verify it could be a significant severe weather event" instead of saying something like "This is 100% going to be a huge tornado outbreak" If I said that, then sure, go ahead and call me out for exaggerating, but I honestly feel I don't feel I'm exaggerating at all.


Not something to be taken seriously. He/she is just having a little joke. The clue's in the word 'million'.
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1121. Ameister12
3:17 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1052. MahFL:



I have told you a million times not to exaggerate !

1) I don't recall you ever telling me to not exaggerate. I've only discussed the severe threat a few times.
2) How am I exaggerating? The last several model runs have consistently been showing a significant threat for severe weather in the same area for two days in a row. Honestly, I feel that's pretty terrifying. Of course, things can change in a few days, that's why i said "If the current models verify it could be a significant severe weather event" instead of saying something like "This is 100% going to be a huge tornado outbreak" If I said that, then sure, go ahead and call me out for exaggerating, but I honestly feel I don't feel I'm exaggerating at all.
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1120. zawxdsk
3:15 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
On that Day 3 Moderate risk, here's the forecast sounding for Texarkana AR from the NAM - at 60 hours out (00z 28th - 7pm CDT Sunday)

Coming close to uncapped with moderate to high cape (but not too much) and good helicity. There will likely be some gravity waves bouncing around from Day 2's ongoing convection early. It's a great set up for some big storms...


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1119. Grothar
3:13 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
From Earth Observatory

Quoting 1116. Xyrus2000:



Svante Arrhenius first published research on anthropogenic climate change in 1896. The earliest work I'm aware of in regards to greenhouse gases was by Joseph Fourier in 1824, who showed that our planet would basically be an ice ball if it wasn't for the gases in our atmosphere.


I posted this a few weeks ago.

Arrhenius did very little research in the fields of climatology and geophysics, and considered any work in these fields a hobby. His basic approach was to apply knowledge of basic scientific principles to make sense of existing observations, while hypothesizing a theory on the cause of the “Ice Age.” Later on, his geophysical work would serve as a catalyst for the work of others.

In 1895, Arrhenius presented a paper to the Stockholm Physical Society titled, “On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground.” This article described an energy budget model that considered the radiative effects of carbon dioxide (carbonic acid) and water vapor on the surface temperature of the Earth, and variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. In order to proceed with his experiments, Arrhenius relied heavily on the experiments and observations of other scientists, including Josef Stefan, Arvid Gustaf Högbom, Samuel Langley, Leon Teisserenc de Bort, Knut Angstrom, Alexander Buchan, Luigi De Marchi, Joseph Fourier, C.S.M. Pouillet, and John Tyndall.

Arrhenius argued that variations in trace constituents—namely carbon dioxide—of the atmosphere could greatly influence the heat budget of the Earth.


Link to article.

Link
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1118. Barefootontherocks
3:10 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
First of all, my heart goes out to everyone who lost friends, family, homes in the Oso, WA landslide.

From Doc M's photo caption for Fig2>>>"The landslide was triggered by record March rains that saturated the soils."
Possibly not a completely weather-related disaster when you consider this:

Fig 2, The WA State Patrol photo of the Oso slide, "clearly" shows clearcutting above and alongside the slide area. Heavy rainfall and the Stillaguamish undercutting the hill of course are factors. So, is could clearcutting on the hillside as shown (be a factor), and, clearcutting upstream could allow more runoff to enter the river, thus increasing the force the river applied to the hill at Oso. In 2007, Oso had a smaller slide in the exact-same place just below the 2014 slide.

Common sense and local knowledge told me clearcutting could be a factor when the fatal landslide occurred. Officials are commenting on it...
Link
While there is no "smoking gun," clear-cutting and river erosion emerge as possible contributors...."Trees act like sponges, catching rain before it hits the ground or soaking it up from the soil. Clear-cut logging could result in as much as a 51 percent increase in the amount of water seeping into the ground, according to the model."..."The question is, 'What was the trigger? What was the threshold that was exceeded?'" Wartman said. "Whether we will be able to know that, I'm not sure."
Link
Add: Link
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1117. Grothar
3:07 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26110
1116. Xyrus2000
3:02 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1040. riverat544:


Not only that but Gilbert Plass published a paper in 1956 titled "The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change".


Svante Arrhenius first published research on anthropogenic climate change in 1896. The earliest work I'm aware of in regards to greenhouse gases was by Joseph Fourier in 1824, who showed that our planet would basically be an ice ball if it wasn't for the gases in our atmosphere.
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1115. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:55 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Day 3 Moderate risks are a rare thing.

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1114. hydrus
2:47 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1112. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

there is going to be some water

Flash flooding is very dangerous here on the plateau. The roads are treacherous without floods.
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1113. ricderr
2:41 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
there is going to be some water


all over the freaking map....well...that is...until to you look at the far west tip of texas......too darn white there....mother needs to give me some color
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1112. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:32 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1110. hydrus:

Some folks will get flash flooding.

there is going to be some water
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1111. ricderr
2:21 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Like the 5 inches that never happened 2 weeks ago in N FL ?


hell...some had hyped it to 10..........5 seems like nothing compared to that
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1110. hydrus
2:14 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Some folks will get flash flooding.
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1109. hydrus
2:09 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1099. Skyepony:

Yesterday's storm moves across the Cumberland Flats, Carolinas & mid-atlantic states today..

GEOS-5



This run has mid-next weeks storms looking mean...




Good morning Skye..There may be some training of the storms. I am looking to see what region will have the worst flooding. I also hope that the tornado threat will not be as strong as some models are showing.
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1108. TimSoCal
2:08 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
All Nino indexes are now positive, after this sudden jump at 1&2.

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1107. Barefootontherocks
2:02 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1106. LSAflier:

Dr. Masters, I guess we will just have to wait and see, but I think you're prediction is way off base. The upper level air patterns are not set up to produce tornados and the next lobe of polar air approaching from the Pacific doesn't appear to extend far enough south, either. Since I live on the southern border of Kansas I will keep an eye to the south west and follow the doppler radar out of Wichita, but right now it's doubtful that we'll see anything more than an isolated thunderstorm and then not until late Sunday afternoon.
Please keep in mind this blog was written 2 days ago when models were showing 4000j/kg CAPE in KS and that the Pacific front would bring major forcing for ascent earlier in the day Saturday. Down here where I live (central OK) keeping an eye open and making a weekend plan just in case.
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1106. LSAflier
1:50 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Dr. Masters, I guess we will just have to wait and see, but I think you're prediction is way off base. The upper level air patterns are not set up to produce tornados and the next lobe of polar air approaching from the Pacific doesn't appear to extend far enough south, either. Since I live on the southern border of Kansas I will keep an eye to the south west and follow the doppler radar out of Wichita, but right now it's doubtful that we'll see anything more than an isolated thunderstorm and then not until late Sunday afternoon.
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1105. LargoFl
1:44 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
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1104. BahaHurican
1:40 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1103. VR46L:



Hmmm nothing really to get the teeth sunk into IMO.... at the moment

Not bad for 6 weeks to the end of the season, though. It hasn't been slow this April so far... maybe we'll see 2 more storms out of this area before it's all done.

SW Indian seems pretty dead for now [MJO has passed?] by comparison.
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1103. VR46L
1:35 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1100. Torito:

TCFP for the WPAC




Hmmm nothing really to get the teeth sunk into IMO.... at the moment

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1102. TimSoCal
1:34 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1101. BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... this actually has a rather hopeful look to it.



Hopefully it's one of those soaking events where the rainfall rate doesn't lead to high run-off and extensive flash flooding...


We have a 30% chance of precip overnight here in LA. Not holding my breath.

I do enjoy the cloudiness, though. It's supposed to keep our temps below 80 today.
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1101. BahaHurican
1:33 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Hmmm.... this actually has a rather hopeful look to it.



Hopefully it's one of those soaking events where the rainfall rate doesn't lead to high run-off and extensive flash flooding...
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1100. Torito
1:25 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
TCFP for the WPAC

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1099. Skyepony (Mod)
1:25 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Yesterday's storm moves across the Cumberland Flats, Carolinas & mid-atlantic states today..

GEOS-5



This run has mid-next weeks storms looking mean...



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1098. VR46L
1:22 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1052. MahFL:



I have told you a million times not to exaggerate !


Quoting 1091. MahFL:

Anyways by July we'll be in a Super Elnino so kiss the canes good bye.


LMAO !!!

Pot kettle Black ; )
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1097. GeorgiaStormz
1:22 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Jackson MS is looking to get hit 3 days in a row.

First as the MCS from the MDT risk tracks east on Day 3 and twice more on Mon/Tue

LARGE CLOCKWISE HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL OVER THE DELTA
REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT THE ZONE OF
GREATER SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE DELTA REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER...A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD
EVOLVE FROM THE INITIAL SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
IF THIS
HAPPENS WOULD EXPECT COLD POOL GENERATION TO HELP GIVE THE SYSTEM
SOME EASTWARD ACCELERATION ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF THE
AREA NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
ARKLAMISS LIKELY MISSING THIS FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL AS THE MCS WANES OUT AHEAD OF THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS WE GO INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...IT WILL TAKE SOMETIME FOR
THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER...BUT EXPECT RE-NEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON
AS THE NOSE OF POWERFUL PACIFIC JET ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE DEEP CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND ENHANCES WIND
SHEAR/LIFT AND THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MIXED
LAYER CAPE > 3000 J/KG COULD HELP MAKE FOR A VOLATILE SET-UP WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
. THE INITIAL CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY
EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS BECOMING MORE PARALLEL RESULTING IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING AND BACK-BUILDING OF STORMS...THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING COULD REALLY RAMP UP MONDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE LARGE SCALE OMEGA-BLOCK OVER OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS
AND A LARGE GYRE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY...THE
SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO WILL LIKELY REPEAT ITSELF FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF UPSTREAM
INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT`S CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...ASSUMING THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM PRIOR
CONVECTION SUGGEST THAT TORNADOES...POTENTIALLY STRONG...WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
1096. WaterWitch11
1:21 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1057. Jedkins01:



What's the difference between a physicist and a meteorologist? Meteorologists have more fun ;)


are u sure? I wouldn't mind running around that tube thing they have at cern :)
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1604
1095. BahaHurican
1:20 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1090. hydrus:

The UKMET

Geez... that looks like a massive hook signature over the entire CONUS... :o)

Hope the severe wx is not TOO severe... I'm also wondering if this is the end of the strong westerly fronts we'll see, or whether we can expect a few more into the mid-May period...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22071
1094. Barefootontherocks
1:20 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting MahFL:
No Mod risk for tomorrow ? What happened to the certain High risk ?
MahFL, Cold front from Pacific taking its good old time seems to place major forcing after dark (add: i.e. after loss of daytime heating). Also a cold front that moved through the central/southern plains Wednesday may limit the moisture return and moisture contributes to instability.

There is still a good deal of uncertainty in the SPC forecast risk for Sat as far as tornadoes. The day 3-4-5, (Sun-Tues) of more concern.
Quoting Ameister12:
The double day threat for Dixie Alley is absolutely terrifying. If current models verify, we could be looking at back-to-back days of very significant severe weather across the exact same areas on Monday and Tuesday.
Ameister, Quoting your full quote here to show you did quality your "terrifying" statement. (Another blogger quoted you and removed part of your comment showing that.)

A double day threat that far out can be terrifying for sure. Good to turn the fear into preparation and make a plan in case you end up in the crosshairs.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 153 Comments: 18602
1093. ncstorm
1:20 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Dr. Forbes doesnt seem impress with the set up for the weekend

Saturday, April 26

Scattered severe thunderstorms and tornadoes likely by and in the evening in south NE, northwest MO, KS except extreme east, west and central OK (excluding west panhandle), east TX panhandle and west TX east of a line from near Childress to Del Rio and as far east at San Antonio and Dallas. TOR:CON - 4 south NE, central KS, west OK, northwest TX; 3 rest of area.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to continue past midnight in these areas and possibly spread into northeast NE, east OK, and northeast TX overnight. TOR:CON - 2 to 3 in these additional areas. At the moment the air looks rather dry and capped (warm layer aloft), which might hold down the tornado threat.

TOR:CON Saturday into Saturday Night

KS central - 4
KS northeast - 3 to 4
KS southeast night - 2 to 3
MO northwest - 3
NE south - 4
NE northeast night - 2 to 3
OK west half excluding west panhandle - 4
OK east night - 2 to 3
TX east panhandle, northwest - 4
TX strip near Childress and Fort Worth to Del Rio and San Antonio - 3
TX northeast night - 2 to 3
other areas - 1 or less
Sunday, April 27

Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes in west and south SD, north and east NE, west and south IA, MO, west-central and south IL, west KY, west TN, extreme northwest MS, AR, northwest LA, east KS, east OK, east TX from east of Dallas to northwest of Houston eastward. TOR:CON - 4 east NE, southwest IA, east KS, MO, east OK, AR, northeast TX; 3 rest of area

TOR:CON Sunday

AR - 4
IA southwest - 4
IA northwest, southeast - 3
IL west-central, south - 3
KS east - 4
KY west - 3
LA northwest - 3
MO - 4
MS northwest - 3
NE east - 4
NE north - 3
OK east - 4
SD west, south - 3
TN west - 3
TX northeast - 4
other areas - 1 or less
Monday, April 28

Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes in southeast SD, southwest MN, north and east IA, IL except northeast, west-central and south IN, west and central KY, west and middle TN, north and west AL, MS, LA, upper-coastal TX, south and east AR, southeast MO. TOR:CON - 5 south IL, southwest IN, west KY, west TN, MS; 4 north and central LA, northwest AL, middle TN, central KY, southeast IN; 3 rest of area

TOR:CON Monday

AL northwest - 4
AL northeast, southwest - 3
IA north, east - 3
IL south - 5
IL central, northwest - 3
IN southwest - 4
IN west-central, southeast - 3
KY west - 5
KY central - 4
LA north - 4
LA southwest - 3
LA southeast - 2 to 3
MN southwest - 3
MO southeast - 3
MS - 5
SD southeast - 3
TN west - 5
TN middle - 4
TX upper-coastal - 2 to 3
other areas - 1 or less

TOR:CON Tuesday

AL - 4
FL west panhandle - 2 to 3
GA northwest - 4
GA central, southwest, northeast - 2 to 3
IL north half - 2 to 3
IN north, central, southeast - 2 to 3
KY east - 3
LA southeast - 2 to 3
MS south - 4
MS east-central - 3
NC west, central, southeast - 2 to 3
OH south - 3
OH northwest - 2 to 3
SC - 2 to 3
TN east - 3
VA southwest - 2 to 3
WV southwest, west-central - 3
other areas - 1 or less
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15260
1092. MahFL
1:19 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Quoting 1088. GeorgiaStormz:

GFS pushing 5" in N GA too.


Like the 5 inches that never happened 2 weeks ago in N FL ?
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3486
1091. MahFL
1:18 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
Anyways by July we'll be in a Super Elnino so kiss the canes good bye.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3486
1090. hydrus
1:14 PM GMT on April 25, 2014
The UKMET
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21173

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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