Camille of 1969 Downgraded to Second Strongest Landfalling U.S. Hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48 PM GMT on April 02, 2014

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On the night of August 17, 1969, mighty Category 5 Hurricane Camille smashed into the Mississippi coast with incredible fury, bringing the largest U.S. storm surge on record--an astonishing 24.6 feet in Pass Christian, Mississippi (a record since beaten by 2005's Hurricane Katrina.) Camille barreled up the East Coast and dumped prodigious rains of 12 - 20 inches with isolated amounts up to 31" over Virginia and West Virginia, with most of the rain falling in just 3 - 5 hours. The catastrophic flash flooding that resulted killed 113 people, and the 143 people the storm killed on the Gulf Coast brought Camille's death toll to 256, making it the 15th deadliest hurricane in U.S. history. Up until now, Camille's landfall intensity had been rated at 190 mph--the highest on record for an Atlantic hurricane, and second highest on record globally, behind Super Typhoon Haiyan's 195 mph winds at landfall in the Philippines in November 2013. However, Camille's landfall intensity has now been officially downgraded to 175 mph, thanks to a reanalysis effort by Margie Kieper and Hugh Willoughby of Florida International University and Chris Landsea and Jack Beven of NHC. Camille's central pressure at landfall was lowered from the previous 909 mb to 900 mb, though. The re-analysis results, presented Tuesday at the American Meteorological Society's 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology , puts Camille in second place for the strongest landfalling hurricane in U.S. history. The top spot is now held by the Great 1935 Labor Day Hurricane that hit the Florida Keys, which reanalysis showed had 185 mph winds and a central pressure of 892 mb at landfall. The only other Category 5 hurricanes on record to hit the U.S. were 1992's Hurricane Andrew (165 mph winds and a 922 mb central pressure) and the 1928 “San Felipe” Hurricane in Puerto Rico (160 mph winds, 931 mb central pressure.) Category 5 hurricanes have maximum sustained winds of 156 mph or greater. Revisions to Camille were accomplished by obtaining the original observations from ships, weather stations, coastal radars, Navy/Air Force/Environmental Science Services Administration (ESSA) Hurricane Hunter aircraft reconnaissance planes, ESSA/NASA satellite imagery, and by analyzing Camille based upon our understanding of hurricanes today. (ESSA is now the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration--NOAA.)


Figure 1. Hurricane Camille as seen on Sunday, August 17, 1969, about eight hours before making landfall on the Mississippi coast. At the time, Camille was a peak-strength Category 5 storm with 175 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 2. Ships beached by Hurricane Camille's record storm surge in Mississippi. Image credit: NOAA photo library.

Hurricane Audrey of 1957 Downgraded to a Category 3
A reanalysis effort on the 1955 - 1964 Atlantic hurricane seasons is also underway, and Sandy Delgado of the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS) in Miami, FL reported on Tuesday that Hurricane Audrey, which had previously been rated as the only June Category 4 Atlantic hurricane, has now lost that distinction. Audrey's top winds at landfall were downgraded to Category 3 status, from 145 mph to 120 mph, which still makes it the strongest landfalling June Atlantic hurricane on record (though Hurricane Alma passed just west of Key West on June 8, 1966 as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds.) Audrey killed 416 people in Texas and Louisiana, making it the 7th deadliest hurricane in U.S. history. Delgado's analysis also found twelve previously unrecognized tropical storms from the 1955 - 1964 period.


Figure 3. Hurricane Audrey near landfall on June 27, 1957. At the time, Audrey was a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA.

Reanalysis of 1946 - 1950 hurricanes completed
HURDAT, the official Atlantic hurricane database, has now been updated with a reanalysis of the 1946 to 1950 hurricane seasons. This was an active period for hurricanes, with 13 striking the continental United States (an average five year span would have about nine U.S. hurricane impacts.) Five of the 13 were major hurricanes at U.S. landfall, and all five struck Florida. These are a Category 4 hurricane in Fort Lauderdale in 1947, a Category 4 hurricane in Everglades City in 1948, a Category 4 hurricane in Lake Worth in 1949, Category 3 Hurricane Easy in Cedar Key in 1950, and Category 4 Hurricane King in Miami in 1950. Of these, King and the 1948 and 1949 hurricanes were upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 based upon the reanalysis. Having five major hurricanes making landfall in Florida is a record for a five year period, equaled only by the early 2000s. In addition, nine new tropical storms were discovered and added into the database for this five year period. The number of major hurricanes for 1950 was reduced from eight to six, putting that year in second place for the most major hurricanes in one year. The record is now held by 2005, with seven major hurricanes (Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Maria, Rita, Wilma, Beta; thanks go to Mark Cole for bringing this stat to my attention.) Andrew Hagen, Donna Sakoskie, Daniel Gladstein, Sandy Delgado, Astryd Rodriguez, Chris Landsea and the NHC Best Track Change Committee all made substantial contributions toward the reanalysis of the 1946 - 1950 hurricane seasons.

Jeff Masters

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1458. mitthbevnuruodo
4:12 AM GMT on April 05, 2014
Quoting 1456. sar2401:


Brutal in California also, with the worst flooding in history. It did, however, finally break the back of a multiyear drought. I spent three days bobbing around in one of our inflatable rescue boats plucking people off roofs. I thought that was the worst I'd ever see in my lifetime...until 1986 came along...but that's another story.

Our system if finally creeping toward SE Alabama and is looking about as wimpy as if can get and still be called a system. It looks like all rain now and no convection at all. We are getting a little sun, with a temperature of 71 with a dewpoint of 68, so there's plenty of moist air, but just not enough instability, unless something happens in the next hour or so. If not, I'll still take the rain, and hope Sunday isn't any worse.


Yes, I think was round the time there were torrential floods throughout the Coachella Valley. Our house fared well, casue of the rock wall surrounding it...though it inundated neighbors a few houses down who didn't have the rock wall too. Been looking what it would mean for the UK. All info found so far, doesn't include any info for UK El Nino seasons
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1457. hydrus
3:40 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
GFS still has a strong low over Mid TN. Wind may be a problem.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
1456. sar2401
3:22 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Quoting hydrus:
The 82-83 El-Nino was brutal. I was living in S.W.Florida then, huge lows would form in the Western Gulf and strengthen big time with the subtropical jet feeding huge amounts of energy into it. They were fairly slow movers. We had a three day gale, and it was a rough time for folks that live aboard. We had the No Name Storm in June of 82. That was a wild ride I will never forget.

Brutal in California also, with the worst flooding in history. It did, however, finally break the back of a multiyear drought. I spent three days bobbing around in one of our inflatable rescue boats plucking people off roofs. I thought that was the worst I'd ever see in my lifetime...until 1986 came along...but that's another story.

Our system if finally creeping toward SE Alabama and is looking about as wimpy as if can get and still be called a system. It looks like all rain now and no convection at all. We are getting a little sun, with a temperature of 71 with a dewpoint of 68, so there's plenty of moist air, but just not enough instability, unless something happens in the next hour or so. If not, I'll still take the rain, and hope Sunday isn't any worse.
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1455. wunderkidcayman
3:22 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Lucky you Cariboy here is bone dry which is very unusual normally this month would be one of the most wettest months

Looks like by day 10 we should start getting wetter



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1454. weathermanwannabe
3:20 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
The regional impacts (across parts of the Globe), for any particular Enso phase are well documented and particularly visible across Conus (adjacent to the Pacific).  Extended rain/flooding or drought for certain areas as well as the trajectory of winter and spring lows.  Getting "stuck" in any particular phase for an extended period of time can cause havoc.
We have been in enso neutral conditions for the past two years, so we have had a mixed bag of weather and storm trajectories across Conus recently (and the polar jet issue this winter).  However, prolonged El Nino or La Nina periods can really benefit or hurt a particular region of the US depending on where the need or danger lies.
Have to see how long the coming El Nino will last as the effects will be with us going into the Spring of 2015 long after the upcoming hurricane season ends.    
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1453. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:19 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1452. barbamz
3:17 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Sahara over my head in Germany:

Photo of the dusty sun I took a couple of minutes ago from my balcony. I didn't change colors, just lowered a bit of the illumination to show the structure of the clouds.
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1451. LargoFl
3:16 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
LAZ036-037-039-046>050-071-072-MSZ069>071-041545-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
949 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AFFECTING AMITE COUNTY...
WALTHALL COUNTY...ASCENSION PARISH...WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH...ST.
HELENA PARISH...EAST FELICIANA PARISH...EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH...
LIVINGSTON PARISH...IBERVILLE PARISH...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH...
NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH...PIKE COUNTY...WASHINGTON PARISH...

AT 942 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM MCCOMB TO PLAQUEMINE...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...MCCOMB...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PRAIRIEVILLE...
LIVINGSTON...GONZALES...TYLERTOWN...AND HAMMOND.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

$$
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1450. LargoFl
3:15 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
im glad florida doesnt get any of these wow....
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1449. LargoFl
3:08 PM GMT on April 04, 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA MAY CONTAIN STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.
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1448. LargoFl
3:07 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Quoting 1447. hydrus:
I am curious if the Nino gets super strong, will it produce giant low pressure areas like back then, I am currently searching to find sat pics of some of the storms. I have books in storage that have those images. I actually lost some rare and precious books in 1985 when Tropical Storm Bob hit S.W. FL. They were in the trunk of my car, heavy rain caused a serious flooding event and flooded my Cutlass. By the time I got home, the mold was all over them, and it took months for me to get the moldy smell out of my vehicle.
yes we'll have to stay alert this season i guess..gee hope nothing real bad here....tampa..upgrade those shields lol
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1447. hydrus
3:03 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Quoting 1440. LargoFl:
yes i remember that year also..guess this year we surely will have to watch the gulf once again.
I am curious if the Nino gets super strong, will it produce giant low pressure areas like back then, I am currently searching to find sat pics of some of the storms. I have books in storage that have those images. I actually lost some rare and precious books in 1985 when Tropical Storm Bob hit S.W. FL. They were in the trunk of my car, heavy rain caused a serious flooding event and flooded my Cutlass. By the time I got home, the mold was all over them, and it took months for me to get the moldy smell out of my vehicle.
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1446. CaribBoy
3:01 PM GMT on April 04, 2014


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1445. CaribBoy
3:00 PM GMT on April 04, 2014




N-I-C-E
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1444. hydrus
2:57 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
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1443. ricderr
2:45 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
El Niño tests forecasters
As hints emerge of a major weather event this year, poor data could thwart attempts to improve predictions.

Jeff Tollefson
02 April 2014
Article tools
PDFRights & Permissions
The first sign of a brewing El Niño weather pattern came in January, as trade winds that normally blow from the east reversed course near Papua New Guinea. Barrelling back across the tropical Pacific Ocean, they began to push warm water towards South America. Now climate scientists and forecasters are on high alert.


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A major El Niño event — a periodic warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific — could boost temperatures and scramble weather worldwide. The most recent major event, in 1997–98, was linked to thousands of deaths and tens of billions of dollars in damage from droughts, fires and floods across several continents. Yet more than 15 years later, forecasting the timing and intensity of El Niño remains tricky, with incremental improvements in climate models threatened by the partial collapse of an ocean-monitoring system that delivers the data to feed those models.

El Niño often emerges during the Northern Hemisphere summer and peaks around December; forecast models can do a reasonable job of predicting its eventual strength by July, when the changes in ocean circulation that give rise to the weather pattern have become pronounced. But scientists are working feverishly to provide earlier forecasts, to allow govern­ments more time to prepare for potentially devastating weather patterns.

In 1997, the emergence of a record-breaking El Niño caught scientists by surprise, despite hints in wind and sea surface temperature data (see ‘Warming up’). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK, was reluctant to issue early warnings because its forecast model was untested. And the model that had best predicted earlier El Niños — developed by scientists at Columbia University’s Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York — foresaw neutral conditions.

“We were in the early days in forecasting,” says Michael McPhaden, an oceanographer at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Seattle, Washington. “Now we are much more systematic.”


Source: NOAA
Expand
This year, NOAA issued its first forecast on 6 March, estimating a 50% chance that El Niño will develop this summer. But that early projection, and others from weather agencies and research institutions around the world, comes with lots of uncertainty. Fickle tropical winds in spring can easily quash a brewing El Niño — or strengthen it.

Researchers say that real progress in forecasting has come from systematically comparing the outputs of groups of models, with each simulation run under a range of possible climate conditions. “Combining these various predictions — doing some crowd-sourcing, if you will — tends to lead to more reliable predictions,” says Gabriel Vecchi, a climate modeller at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey. Averaging the results of several different forecasting models tends to cancel out flaws in an individual program, he says.

“Fickle tropical winds can easily quash a brewing El Niño — or strengthen it.”
The sensitivity of the simulations is also increasing. Global climate models divide the planet into grids, like a computer screen divided into pixels, and represent climate variables such as temperature as averages in each cell. Modellers increase the resolution of their calculations by reducing the size of the cells. Vecchi’s lab, for example, has shifted its model from a grid with cells 200 kilo­metres across to one with cells 50 kilo­metres across, thereby increasing the number of cells by a factor of 16. In theory, this allows for more-accurate representations of the microphysical processes and interactions that drive weather and ultimately climate. Forecasters also continuously fine-tune how they incorporate environmental-monitoring data and represent complex inter­actions between air and ocean circulation.

During the spring, when forecasting is most difficult, such improvements have given climate models based on physical processes a leg-up over less sophisticated statistical models, which compare the current weather-system trends to those of past years and essentially estimate the likelihood that history will repeat itself.

Almost all of this year’s initial forecasts suggest that a moderate to severe El Niño or neutral conditions will emerge in coming months. None predicts El Niño’s sister effect, La Niña, in which upwelling currents from the deep ocean bring cooler waters to the surface off the Pacific coast of South America.

Related stories
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El Niño monitoring system in failure mode
Frequency of extreme El Niños to double as globe warms
More related stories
In the coming weeks, scientists will watch to see if warm water continues to flow across the Pacific into the area off South America where El Niño forms. But in a potential blow to the ongoing effort to improve forecast accuracy, their ocean-temperature data will get progressively worse. A US-funded system of data-gathering buoys known as the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array has started to break down as a result of budget cuts that have hobbled its maintenance (see Nature http://doi.org/q72; 2014). NOAA has committed to restoring most of the system by the end of the year, but that aid will come months after crucial El Niño forecasts are issued. Scientists will be forced to supplement the buoy data with satellite observations of water temperature and sea level, which can serve as proxies for the depth of the wave of warm water.

The stakes are high. Since 1998, the eastern Pacific has been in a cold phase that is associated with La Niña-like conditions, but every 15–30 years, as part of a cycle known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, that trend flips. Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, has theorized that a major El Niño could help to push the ocean back into a warm phase, which studies have linked to more frequent El Niños and more rapid global warming (see Nature 505, 276–278; 2014).

But all of that depends on what happens as warm water washes across the Pacific in the next couple of months. “The system is primed,” says Trenberth. “Will it wimp out or really take off
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1442. LargoFl
2:43 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Beautiful beach day here..dont forget the sunscreen...
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1441. LargoFl
2:41 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
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1440. LargoFl
2:39 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Quoting 1435. hydrus:
The 82-83 El-Nino was brutal. I was living in S.W.Florida then, huge lows would form in the Western Gulf and strengthen big time with the subtropical jet feeding huge amounts of energy into it. They were fairly slow movers. We had a three day gale, and it was a rough time for folks that live aboard. We had the No Name Storm in June of 82. That was a wild ride I will never forget.
yes i remember that year also..guess this year we surely will have to watch the gulf once again.
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1439. ncstorm
2:33 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Quoting 1432. StormTrackerScott:
I just find it amazing that you can have this high of warm water anomalies move from west to east beneath the sea surface. I guess its a way of Mother Nature balancing things out. Naga5000 said it best it's Mother Nature's way of letting out a big burp.


Mother Nature needs some Tums..
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1438. ILwthrfan
2:31 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Quoting 1433. dabirds:
How much did you end up w/ ILwther? Dumped another .5" this a.m. for 4" total. All the creeks full, but no real bad flooding, spread out enough over the two and half days and frost line down enough we soaked most of it up. Severe stayed south too.


Seen you had a couple tornado warnings down there yesterday as well. I had 1.5" over 2.5 days. Just the right amount really for a nice green up if we can ever get the sun and warmth out up here. Coldest winter and early spring I have been apart of in my 31 years of youth anyways. I had 45" of snow this year with about 12 overnight lows well below zero. I think we had -7 to -10 C temperature anomalies for most of the winter here. It looks to continue as well. I wouldn't be surprised if we get an Indian Summer around here.

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1437. JNTenne
2:31 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Storms came in 7 hours slower than anticipated.. hit us at 5am instead of midnight so got some sleep which is a GOOD THING!
Here's the gray skies hanging overhead now.. should be clearing in a little bit.. Only heard of a couple of barns over to the south, probably straight line and not a twister. HAPPY FRIDAY!
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1436. ricderr
2:30 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
at this point in time this Kelvin Wave is stronger".


why yes....i agree with that revision


as for 1997...it's about three weeks faster at this point...but was slower at others...which i believe is directly contributed to the upwelling of the kelvin wave....with the kelvin wave being stronger...with the buildup of heat in the ocean depths over the past decade...and the fact that ocean temperatures were higher in respect to average sst's at the beginning of this event than in many other past episodes is why i believe we will see el nino be declared


but it is strikingly similar to 2012...the non el nino, el nino year.....

not that i expect the outcome to be the same
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1435. hydrus
2:28 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Quoting 1431. StormTrackerScott:


It's ahead of 1997 and 1982. Clarification "at this point in time this Kelvin Wave is stronger".
The 82-83 El-Nino was brutal. I was living in S.W.Florida then, huge lows would form in the Western Gulf and strengthen big time with the subtropical jet feeding huge amounts of energy into it. They were fairly slow movers. We had a three day gale, and it was a rough time for folks that live aboard. We had the No Name Storm in June of 82. That was a wild ride I will never forget.
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1434. ILwthrfan
2:27 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Quoting 1428. ricderr:
seems to be moving much faster and much stronger compared to some of the other el-nino's we have experienced over the last several decades.



not according to the graphs


What other analogs had that large of an area of +5 C anomalies?
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1433. dabirds
2:26 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
How much did you end up w/ ILwther? Dumped another .5" this a.m. for 4" total. All the creeks full, but no real bad flooding, spread out enough over the two and half days and frost line down enough we soaked most of it up. Severe stayed south too.
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1432. StormTrackerScott
2:23 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
I just find it amazing that you can have this high of warm water anomalies move from west to east beneath the sea surface. I guess its a way of Mother Nature balancing things out. Naga5000 said it best it's Mother Nature's way of letting out a big burp.
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1431. StormTrackerScott
2:17 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Quoting 1428. ricderr:
seems to be moving much faster and much stronger compared to some of the other el-nino's we have experienced over the last several decades.



not according to the graphs


It's ahead of 1997 and 1982. Clarification "at this point in time this Kelvin Wave is stronger".
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1430. Patrap
2:12 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
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1429. hydrus
2:08 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Long way out, but a big rain event.
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1428. ricderr
2:04 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
seems to be moving much faster and much stronger compared to some of the other el-nino's we have experienced over the last several decades.



not according to the graphs
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1427. nonblanche
2:04 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Quoting 1417. TimSoCal:



This would seem to explain the warming in regions 1, 2, and 3 the last couple of days. The front edge of that monster is finally surfacing.


Good morning!

I'm just keeping this image on my screen, it's making me smile. I know it is intense but if it presages a rich hit of rain and snowpack for next fall-winter, it will do people here a lot of good.

I just finished reading "Blood of the Earth" by John Michael Greer, an exploration of the psychology of the Climate Change disputes from a Western Occult philosophical viewpoint. If that sounds odd, it works really well. It makes a good companion reader to Jared Diamond's "Guns, Germs &Steel" and "Collapse."

Oh and while I like the beta look and smartphone readability, when I click on the usual spot to expand pre-collapsed comments, it just takes me back to the top of the comment section. Maybe I am missing something. (Using chrome browser)
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1426. Patrap
2:02 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0062
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 1800Z
– States affected: LA MS GM CW
– Issued: 04/04/2014 at 1025Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0061
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 1500Z
– States affected: KY TN VA
– Issued: 04/04/2014 at 1000Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0060
– Valid until: 04/04/2014 1600Z
– States affected: LA TX GM CW
– Issued: 04/04/2014 at 0835Z
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1425. TimSoCal
2:00 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
^ Both 97P and 05W seem likely to contribute to another westerly windburst, lined up like they are on either side of the equator, with an MJO pulse entering the area soon.
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1424. StormTrackerScott
1:59 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Here comes the MJO. You can tell too as the GFS is looking mighty wet across FL the second half of April.

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1423. Patrap
1:58 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Quoting 1364. barbamz:
Smog expert: Worsening Saharan dust storms to become an annual Spring fixture as climate changes
The Independent, April 4, 2014
The Saharan dust storms thickening Britain's smog and coating cars from Cornwall to Aberdeen will become increasingly strong in the coming years as a "nasty mixture" of drought, development and intensive farming in North Africa pushes up air pollution, a leading dust expert warned yesterday.
The rapid population growth in Western Sahel countries such as Chad, Niger, Mali and Mauritani in the past 20 to 30 years has prompted a surge in agriculture which has greatly increased the amount of dust, Dr Robert Bryant, of Sheffield University, told The Independent.
He said there was every sign that the trend - which has also seen cars in Devon, London and Northern Ireland covered in a fine reddish-brown dust and caused breathing difficulties in asthma and chronic bronchitis sufferers - will continue.
"There has been a dramatic increase in some aspects of dust flux [emissions], which have doubled over the last 50 years. Population pressure alone is likely to exacerbate the problem and if current trends continue the amount could double again over the next 50 years," said Dr Bryant, a Reader in Dryland Processes at the University of Sheffield. ...
Whole article see link above.


Current satellite map with dust induced/related clouds over Europe.


Current Saharan dust layer over Europe. Source.


Saved current loop.


Source. Muddy rains have soiled Barcelona. According to German news (refering to the Spanish weather service) an estimated amount of 50.000 tons of Saharan dust has been rained over the region of Catalonia in Northwestern Spain.

Have a nice and safe morning, everybody abroad!



2014, the Year the Forcing's fight Back.

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1422. CaribBoy
1:53 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
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1421. CaribBoy
1:52 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Getting a few thundershowers this morning :-)

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1420. StormTrackerScott
1:51 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Quoting 1416. ILwthrfan:


I think some pretty drastic atmospheric patterns would have to change in hurry to put any kind of dent in what is about to come. That is a great deal of energy sitting down there and it has to disperse somehow. Those positive anomalies have done nothing but expand eastward in area and intensity for the last month and a half. Should be interesting to see what it's like by the end of the month.


It seems to be moving much faster and much stronger compared to some of the other el-nino's we have experienced over the last several decades.
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1419. ncstorm
1:50 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
New Outlook







SPC AC 041257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2014

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST
REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS/OH VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT MID/UPR MS VLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE TO
UPR MI LATER TODAY AND TO THE ONT-QUE BORDER EARLY SAT. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM ASSUMES A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT IN RESPONSE TO SPEED MAX NOW OVER MO MOVING NE INTO
IL/IND. FARTHER S...SEASONABLY STRONG...SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC
SUB-TROPICAL JET SHOULD BUILD SLOWLY N ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AND LWR
MS VLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LWR LVLS...OCCLUDED SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MS VLY TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE ACROSS MI AND LK HURON...WHILE A TRIPLE POINT
WAVE EVOLVES IN THE LEE OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. THE LATTER LOW
SHOULD MOVE NE TO CAPE COD BY 12Z SAT AS TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE S ATLANTIC CSTL PLN.

...CNTRL GULF CST STATES TO OH VLY TODAY...
SQLN NOW ARCING FROM ERN KY/ERN TN SWWD INTO LA IS LARGELY
PRE-FRONTAL. EXCEPT OVER LA AND MS...THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS
OUT-RUN THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD FROM
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE GULF CST STATES
WILL BE NEUTRAL AT BEST AS MID MS VLY TROUGH CONTINUES NEWD.
SOMEWHAT ENHANCED UPR-LVL DIVERGENCE MAY...HOWEVER...PERSIST OVER
THE REGION INTO EARLY AFTN IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING
SUB-TROPICAL JET.

STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG THE SQLN GUST
FRONT AMIDST MODERATELY STRONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY LOW TO
MID-LVL FLOW MAY FOSTER A FEW STORMS/EMBEDDED SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DMGG WIND OR SVR HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN PARTS OF LA AND
MS TODAY. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD...HOWEVER...GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
THE MEAN WINDS SUBSIDE AND DIURNAL COOLING STABILIZES REGION.

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS/UPR OH VLY TODAY...
LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW OVER SE KY/FAR ERN TN
SHOULD CONTINUE ENE INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS LATER
TODAY...SUPPORTED BY 50-60 KT 700-500 MB FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH JET
STREAK ROUNDING SE FLANK OF MS VLY UPR TROUGH. WHILE LOW-LVL
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS NOTABLY DRIED COMPARED TO
REGION UPSTREAM THAT THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TRAVERSED
OVERNIGHT...MODERATE SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF WV AND VA
LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD...SETUP MAY
CONTINUE TO FOSTER A FEW EMBEDDED SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG
WIND.

FARTHER N...POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A SPORADIC DMGG GUST OR TWO
OVER NRN OH...IND...AND LWR MI...DESPITE STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT/DCVA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPR TROUGH.

...S TX THIS MORNING...
WDLY SCTD STRONG TO SVR TSTMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
DEEP S TX...WHERE RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES/ AND SOMEWHAT
CONFLUENT...SLIGHTLY UPSLOPE LOW-LVL FLOW WILL LINGER AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE
FOSTERED BY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES /DEEP EML/...AND POSSIBLY BY
ENHANCED VENTILATION INVOF STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET. ANY SVR THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS UNDERCUTTING BY COOL/DRY POST-FRONTAL
AIR CAUSES STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED.

..CORFIDI/JIRAK.. 04/04/2014

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15696
1418. pcola57
1:40 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
From Live Science:
Earthquake Survival Guide: What You Need to Know

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6844
1417. TimSoCal
1:28 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Quoting 1370. StormTrackerScott:
Geesh!



This would seem to explain the warming in regions 1, 2, and 3 the last couple of days. The front edge of that monster is finally surfacing.
Member Since: July 9, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 775
1416. ILwthrfan
1:27 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Quoting 1370. StormTrackerScott:
Geesh!



I think some pretty drastic atmospheric patterns would have to change in hurry to put any kind of dent in what is about to come. That is a great deal of energy sitting down there and it has to disperse somehow. Those positive anomalies have done nothing but expand eastward in area and intensity for the last month and a half. Should be interesting to see what it's like by the end of the month.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1526
1415. Torito
1:25 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
12 hour forecast.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1414. Torito
1:22 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Just keep spinning...

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1413. Torito
1:20 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Slowly moving up into the north east.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1412. Torito
1:19 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Up towards the Mid east:

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1411. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:19 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54460
1410. Torito
1:18 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Line of storms moving through the south east right now..

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1409. Torito
1:16 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
Quoting 1407. Tazmanian:


I hop this is the same for CA for later in the fall and winter


Morning, Taz... Have some coffee.


Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1408. Torito
1:15 PM GMT on April 04, 2014
97P: the next cat 1?



Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.