IPCC: Climate Change Increasing Risk of Hunger, Thirst, Disease, Refugees, and War

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:42 AM GMT on March 31, 2014

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Climate change is already having "widespread impacts", and has the potential to worsen global hunger, water availability, disease, drought, flooding, refugees, and war in the coming decades if we do nothing to reduce it, said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) today, in the latest installment of their once-every-seven-year report on the climate. Today's report on climate change impacts and how we can adapt to them warned that "throughout the 21st century, climate-change impacts are projected to slow down economic growth, make poverty reduction more difficult, further erode food security, and prolong existing and create new poverty traps." Today's report by the Nobel-prize winning group of scientists was the second of four parts. Part 1, released in September 2013, covered the physical science behind climate change. Part 3 (due out in mid-April, 2014) will discuss how we can mitigate (reduce) climate change impacts. Part 4 (due out in early November, 2014) will present a grand summary of Parts 1, 2, and 3. Some key themes from today's report:

Food supplies will tighten. To me, the most important finding of the report is the climate change's threat to reduce global food supplies, which have already been negatively impacted, and are at risk to get much worse: “Based on many studies covering a wide range of regions and crops, negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts. Climate change has negatively affected wheat and maize (corn) yields for many regions and in the global aggregate." For the future, the report acknowledges that some areas will likely see increases in food production, due to increased CO2 in the air and more favorable precipitation, but the overall global trend in food supplies will likely be downward (Figure 1.) This downward trend in yields will occur in the face of rapidly increasing demand, as the population grows by 2 billion, resulting in "increased likelihood of under-nutrition resulting from diminished food production in poor regions."


Figure 1. Summary of projected changes in crop yields, due to climate change over the 21st century. The figure includes projections for different emission scenarios, for tropical and temperate regions, and for adaptation and no-adaptation cases combined. Over the period 2010 - 2029, about as many scenarios predict an increase in global crop yields as predict a decrease. However, beyond 2030, more than twice as many scenarios predict a decrease versus an increase. Relatively few studies have considered impacts on cropping systems for scenarios where global mean temperatures increase by 4°C or more. For five time frames in the near-term and long-term, data (n=1090) are plotted in the 20-year period on the horizontal axis that includes the midpoint of each future projection period. Changes in crop yields are relative to late-20th-century levels. Data for each time frame sum to 100%. Image credit: IPCC.

Water availability to people will decrease, as wet areas get wetter and dry areas get drier. Not only does climate change pose huge risks to our food supply, it also threatens water availability. “The fraction of global population experiencing water scarcity and the fraction affected by major river floods increase with the level of warming in the 21st century.”

We're not adapting fast enough to avoid serious damage. The report talks about "adaptation deficits", as demonstrated by our relatively poor ability to respond to impacts from from recent extreme climatic events. "Climate-change-related risks from extreme events, such as heat waves, extreme precipitation, and coastal flooding, are already moderate (high confidence) and high with 1°C additional warming (medium confidence)." IPCC author and Princeton Professor Michael Oppenheimer put it more succinctly to the Associated Press: “We’re all sitting ducks.”

Poor people are most at risk from climate change. Climate-related hazards constitute an additional burden to people living in poverty, acting as a threat multiplier.

Climate change increases the risk of violence. For the first time, the IPCC lays out the case that climate change can add a destabilizing factor that can make violence more likely in countries with social and economic inequalities. "Climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts in the form of civil war and inter-group violence by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks."

Climate change increases the risk of more refugees. "Displacement risk increases when populations that lack the resources for planned migration experience higher exposure to extreme weather events."

Climate change will be costly. Though the uncertainties are high, the costs for an additional 2°C rise in temperature are thought to be between 0.2 and 2.0% of global GDP. "Losses are more likely than not to be greater, rather than smaller, than this range, since it is difficult to account for catastrophic changes, tipping points, and many other factors."

Human health will suffer. "Throughout the 21st century, climate change is expected to lead to increases in ill-health in many regions and especially in developing countries with low income…the magnitude and severity of negative impacts are projected to increasingly outweigh positive impacts. Examples include greater likelihood of injury, disease, and death due to more intense heat waves and fires; increased likelihood of under-nutrition resulting from diminished food production in poor regions; risks from lost work capacity and reduced labor productivity in vulnerable populations; and increased risks from food- and water-borne diseases and vector-borne diseases" (like malaria.)

We can take action to reduce these substantial risks. "Mitigation is considered essential for managing the risks of climate change." Mitigation refers to human actions to reduce climate change. Burning fewer fossil fuels and thus putting less CO2 in the air is essential to mitigating climate change. We should view the next few decades as the era of ‘climate responsibility’, when we can make a huge difference to keep our future climate livable. The report emphasizes that if greenhouse gases continue to rise, the world can expect an additional 6 - 7°F (3.5 - 4°C) of warming by 2100, instead of the international goal of keeping this rise less than 2°F (1.2°C). Princeton's Dr. Oppenheimer compared these two choices as "the difference between driving on an icy road at 30 mph versus 90 mph. It's risky at 30, but deadly at 90." Uncertainty is not a reason to delay climate action, and it is cheaper to act now on climate change than to delay. The International Energy Agency said in 2013 that in order to keep global warming less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, "Delaying stronger climate action until 2020 would avoid $1.5 trillion in low-carbon investments up to that point, but an additional $5 trillion would then need to be invested through to 2035 to get back on track." The latest IPCC findings will be a key discussion topic for world leaders at a September 23, 2014 Climate Summit in New York City, hosted by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. The summit aims to mobilize political will to pave the way for an ambitious global legal climate agreement to be signed at the critical December 2015 Conference of Parties (COP) negotiations in Paris.

Links
Associated Press coverage of the IPCC Part 2 report.

New Blockbuster IPCC Climate Report: Comprehensive, Authoritative, Conservative, my September 2013 post on who the IPCC is, and how they write their reports.

Landmark 2013 IPCC Report: 95% Chance Most of Global Warming is Human-Caused, my September 2013 post on Part I of the 2013 - 2014 IPCC report.


Video 1. The IPCC released this video to accompany today's release of their 2014 Impacts and Adaptation report.

Jeff Masters

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1225. nwobilderburg
3:26 AM GMT on April 04, 2014
hello
Member Since: October 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 822
1224. hurricanes2018
12:33 AM GMT on April 03, 2014
:
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 728 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 48 Comments: 80373
1223. indianrivguy
3:34 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1215. VR46L:


Don't see you around much these days , Is the Lake O issue any better at the moment !


I lurk here most of the time.. I spend more time on Ricky Roods spamfest more than here until we get back into "be scared" season.

Wellll, the "lake" is fine.. but those that manage it, and who is protected first have not changed. The Florida Legislature is selling our protections, environment and future for financial considerations as I write...
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2585
1222. fireflymom
2:49 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Earthquake damage.
Quoting 1211. JNTenne:

What is going on the WU Logo today????

Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
1221. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:48 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1220. StormTrackerScott
2:48 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1218. pcola57:


Pretty cool..
I like it..
My only issue is I couldn't find where to sign in and out at..


Get your glasses then
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3851
1219. Patrap
2:47 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
No keep, the old logo is on its way out and the new Logo is to come into being this week...or soon
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1218. pcola57
2:46 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1216. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
new wunderground preview


http://preview.wunderground.com/


Pretty cool..
I like it..
My only issue is I couldn't find where to sign in and out at..

Edit:
I found it..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6880
1217. StormTrackerScott
2:43 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1215. VR46L:


Don't see you around much these days , Is the Lake O issue any better at the moment !


Well there not draining it right now like last summer which is good but the worry is the Lake level is high for this time of year and the rainy season is just several weeks away which means there will likely be more lowering of the Lake level into the estuaries.

U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville District
Lake Okeechobee and Navigation Depth Report

Data Ending 2400 hours 01 APR 2014


Today's Lake Okeechobee Stage = 13.58 (Feet-NGVD29)

Today's Route 1 Navigational Depth %u2248 7.52 Feet

13.58' is very high for early April.

Here's one of the spill way's web cams.



Here's a link below of where the water goes once released.
Link
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3851
1216. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:41 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
new wunderground preview


http://preview.wunderground.com/
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
1215. VR46L
2:39 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1210. indianrivguy:


When I finished reading it, I went and looked to make sure I was reading right.... "I" bit... :)Good afternoon to you!


Don't see you around much these days , Is the Lake O issue any better at the moment !
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950
1214. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:38 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1211. JNTenne:

What is going on the WU Logo today????
we are under construction until the logo rtns normal I guess its a work in progress

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
1213. hurricanes2018
2:35 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
severe weather later in the day
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 48 Comments: 80373
1212. AussieStorm
2:33 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Could this be connected to the quake?

Authorities Hand Out Masks, Glasses as Ubinas Volcano Rumbles
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
1211. JNTenne
2:33 PM GMT on April 02, 2014

What is going on the WU Logo today????
Member Since: May 21, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 566
1210. indianrivguy
2:31 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1209. VR46L:


I never can tell ....


When I finished reading it, I went and looked to make sure I was reading right.... "I" bit... :)Good afternoon to you!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2585
1209. VR46L
2:29 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1208. indianrivguy:


methinks Pat was tongue in cheek there Liz...


I never can tell ....
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950
1208. indianrivguy
2:27 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1207. VR46L:


Shrug

Air pollution: High levels to spread across England

Government health advice has been issued amid warnings pollution spreading across England will again hit high levels later.

Defra issued warnings as high pollution levels were recorded on Tuesday.

The pollution - a mix of local and European emissions and dust from the Sahara - is forecast in parts of south England, the Midlands and East Anglia.

The elderly and those with lung or heart disease are urged to avoid strenuous exercise outside.

Defra has a 10-point scale for measuring air quality - with 1 meaning there is a "low" risk of air pollution and 10 warning of "very high" level


Maybe this is photoshopped .... dust emerging from the Sahara effecting UK and Ireland





methinks Pat was tongue in cheek there Liz...
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2585
1207. VR46L
2:25 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1194. Patrap:





I don't "trust" dem pictures, folks can easily photoshop in Pollution.

Plus, Man cannot affect the earth's atmosphere, were too small.


Shrug

Air pollution: High levels to spread across England

Government health advice has been issued amid warnings pollution spreading across England will again hit high levels later.

Defra issued warnings as high pollution levels were recorded on Tuesday.

The pollution - a mix of local and European emissions and dust from the Sahara - is forecast in parts of south England, the Midlands and East Anglia.

The elderly and those with lung or heart disease are urged to avoid strenuous exercise outside.

Defra has a 10-point scale for measuring air quality - with 1 meaning there is a "low" risk of air pollution and 10 warning of "very high" level


Maybe this is photoshopped .... dust emerging from the Sahara effecting UK and Ireland



Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950
1206. indianrivguy
2:24 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1201. pcola57:


Three Atmospheric 'Dragons': Low Pressure Areas Around the U.S.
March 31, 2014





There are three low pressure systems around the U.S. and they resemble dragons on satellite imagery. NOAA's GOES-13 and GOES-15 satellite image from March 31, 2014 shows the low pressure systems in the eastern Pacific Ocean, over the nation's Heartland, and in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. All three lows have the signature comma shape that make them appear to be curled up dragons.

According to the National Weather Service, the low pressure area approaching the northwestern U.S. is expected to bring rainfall to the coast and areas of snow that stretch from western Washington state south toward the four corners region. The low in the middle of the country is located over Nebraska and dropping snow to the north and west of it. That same low is bringing rain from southern Minnesota south to eastern Texas. Meanwhile, the third low pressure system is bringing rain and snow to parts of New England.

NOAA's GOES-East satellite sits in a fixed orbit in space capturing visible and infrared imagery of all weather over the eastern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean.


Viewed from north to south.. thats the evil debbil number....

Good luck on the MRI Pat.. hope they can fix ya!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2585
1205. StormTrackerScott
2:22 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
The 5C anomaly is much larger this time around.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3851
1204. Patrap
2:22 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1202. barbamz:


Changing sides, Pat, lol?


Forecast map about air quality by the University of Koeln. Red is bad.


I like to throw a curve ball jus to see um flinch every now and den.

Plus I have a detailed L shoulder MRI scheduled for 11:30 here so If I don't return, they can chew on dat one fer a spell.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1203. JRRP
2:14 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Interesting plot between 1997 and 2014 in regards to the enso regions as both 1997 and 2014 are featuring a little dip the 1st week in April only to go up again by the end of the month. Although most enso regions are holding steady or falling slightly that still doesn't mean that a "Super El-Nino" isn't on the way.



We should see significant warming occur after April 10th as the MJO moves back in. Also the models are now showing lowering pressures in the Caribbean suggesting we may see early season development in the Caribbean.



One last thing all of this warm water has no where to go but to surface and it should begin to do so in earnest come the second half of April.




Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6165
1202. barbamz
2:12 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1194. Patrap:

I don't "trust" dem pictures, folks can easily photoshop in Pollution. Plus, Man cannot affect the earth's atmosphere, were too small.


Changing sides, Pat, lol?


Forecast map about air quality by the University of Koeln. Red is bad.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6256
1201. pcola57
2:11 PM GMT on April 02, 2014


Three Atmospheric 'Dragons': Low Pressure Areas Around the U.S.
March 31, 2014





There are three low pressure systems around the U.S. and they resemble dragons on satellite imagery. NOAA's GOES-13 and GOES-15 satellite image from March 31, 2014 shows the low pressure systems in the eastern Pacific Ocean, over the nation's Heartland, and in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. All three lows have the signature comma shape that make them appear to be curled up dragons.

According to the National Weather Service, the low pressure area approaching the northwestern U.S. is expected to bring rainfall to the coast and areas of snow that stretch from western Washington state south toward the four corners region. The low in the middle of the country is located over Nebraska and dropping snow to the north and west of it. That same low is bringing rain from southern Minnesota south to eastern Texas. Meanwhile, the third low pressure system is bringing rain and snow to parts of New England.

NOAA's GOES-East satellite sits in a fixed orbit in space capturing visible and infrared imagery of all weather over the eastern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6880
1200. georgevandenberghe
2:10 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1175. beell:


but can they fart to the tune of "Yankee Doodle Dandy"?


With appropriate hardware and a device driver, yes. But I'll stick with NWP for my work motivation
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 1939
1199. georgevandenberghe
2:06 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 713. WaterWitch11:
love the fact that the article I found yesterday I can no longer find. googled fracking in CA. holy cow seems a lot do it. there is a bill SB4 that goes into effect in 1/2015 that they will have disclose ingredients used in the process currently 78 of the 10,000 report what is used.
don't quote me...all from memory

but here is the part that I did not realize until just now...we the brilliant creatures that we are put oil rigs on top of fault lines.

happy fools day



We also build condos in front of seawalls in places like Galveston since of
course they will never ever have another TC lanfall..

ever.
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 1939
1198. Patrap
2:05 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Anyone notice the clouds fell out the wunderground logo top left?

The new Logo to come on board this week me tinks too.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1197. georgevandenberghe
2:03 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1194. Patrap:





I don't "trust" dem pictures, folks can easily photoshop in Pollution.

Plus, Man cannot affect the earth's atmosphere, were too small.



We really can't build structures to match natural formations either and it's clear the buildings were photoshopped in also. Rumors that London is a major city should be put to rest

(oops, wait it's April 2,.. sorry)
Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 1939
1196. ncstorm
2:02 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Event: Severe Weather Statement
Alert:

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
WARREN...MONTGOMERY AND WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

AT 847 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BELLFLOWER...

AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN
MONTGOMERY CITY WITH THIS STORM.
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLFLOWER...HAWK POINT...DAVIS...TRUXTON...OLNEY...CAVE AND SILEX.
THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI NEAR EXIT 179.

...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

Instructions: FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.
Target Area:
Lincoln
Warren
Forecast Office: NWS Saint Louis (Eastern Missouri and West Central Illinois
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16041
1195. georgevandenberghe
2:01 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 712. sar2401:

Ebola is very difficult to spread unless you're in direct contact with bodily fluids. It occurs so frequently in Africa because infection control methods are generally poor. This is way down on the list of infectious diseases we should be worrying about becoming a problem in the developed world.


Ebola also has the property, that secondary and tertiary cases
are not as virulent or deadly as primary cases and the index case. In other words it tends to damp out as it spreads through a human population. This is observed behaviour in outbreaks so far and may not occur in future epidemics with another strain of it.

New bugs we don't have resistance to or slightly mutated versions of bugs we did, scare me a lot, in particular new flus or something similar to the common cold, similarly incurable, and deadly.

Member Since: February 1, 2012 Posts: 19 Comments: 1939
1194. Patrap
1:56 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1192. barbamz:

Live Webcam London

Air pollution: High levels to spread across England
BBC News, 2 April 2014 Last updated at 13:07 GMT
Government health advice has been issued amid warnings pollution spreading across England will again hit high levels later.
Defra issued warnings as high pollution levels were recorded on Tuesday.
The pollution - a mix of local and European emissions and dust from the Sahara - is forecast in parts of south England, the Midlands and East Anglia.
The elderly and those with lung or heart disease are urged to avoid strenuous exercise outside. ...

Whole article with forecasts and videos see link above.


Air pollution lowered levels of visibility in London





I don't "trust" dem pictures, folks can easily photoshop in Pollution.

Plus, Man cannot affect the earth's atmosphere, were too small.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1193. StormTrackerScott
1:56 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Looks like our system that the GFS has latched onto is starting to form in the W-Pac now.


Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3851
1192. barbamz
1:53 PM GMT on April 02, 2014

Live Webcam London

Air pollution: High levels to spread across England
BBC News, 2 April 2014 Last updated at 13:07 GMT
Government health advice has been issued amid warnings pollution spreading across England will again hit high levels later.
Defra issued warnings as high pollution levels were recorded on Tuesday.
The pollution - a mix of local and European emissions and dust from the Sahara - is forecast in parts of south England, the Midlands and East Anglia.
The elderly and those with lung or heart disease are urged to avoid strenuous exercise outside. ...

Whole article with forecasts and videos see link above.


Air pollution lowered levels of visibility in London
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 58 Comments: 6256
1191. Patrap
1:52 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1171. LargoFl:
I think people forget..earths climate is always changing,never stays the same for long..no different in these so called modern times..we humans just need to adjust to the changes,something most other animals find hard to do..but we are somewhat different..we can


I think you need to study mo'

Thats what I tink.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1190. Bluestorm5
1:51 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1176. Waltanater:
Nice try on that April Fools' joke! LOL Good one.
Wasn't a joke.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
1189. MrBoujangles
1:45 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1151. islander101010:
i would not be surprised in a few yrs we find out alot of the equip used to study earth is flawed. technology is nice but lets face it. the companies that are make these technical devices do so for a profit. do you really know what the water temp. is worldwide? the finding that are used on this blog are based on these machines. i dont trust them

You're right, it is difficult to get ocean temperatures below clouds, but I'm pretty sure they wouldn't spend so much money to launch these sensors into orbit to not get testable and verifiable results. You can literally fact check these things by taking a boat out into the ocean and taking surface temperatures with an infrared or even one of those good old mercury thermometers.
Member Since: May 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
1188. AussieStorm
1:43 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting biff4ugo:
With the quake that big and shallow, have there been any waves? I saw the warnings last night but all I heard about today were landslides.


Yes. The Tsunami wave height was 2.4m or 7ft 10inches in Pisagua, Chile.

Chile earthquake: 6 dead, thousands evacuated

Quoting Tazmanian:



Plzs read back in the commits and you will no what took place


See Taz,,, it's as simple as that.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
1187. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:42 PM GMT on April 02, 2014



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
1186. StormTrackerScott
1:42 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Interesting plot between 1997 and 2014 in regards to the enso regions as both 1997 and 2014 are featuring a little dip the 1st week in April only to go up again by the end of the month. Although most enso regions are holding steady or falling slightly that still doesn't mean that a "Super El-Nino" isn't on the way.



We should see significant warming occur after April 10th as the MJO moves back in. Also the models are now showing lowering pressures in the Caribbean suggesting we may see early season development in the Caribbean.



One last thing all of this warm water has no where to go but to surface and it should begin to do so in earnest come the second half of April.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 3851
1185. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:41 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
1184. beell
1:17 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1178. Naga5000:


You better believe it, brother! :)


Truth be told, half a measure is the best I can do.
Have a good one Naga.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16878
1183. Tazmanian
1:15 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1181. biff4ugo:
With the quake that big and shallow, have there been any waves? I saw the warnings last night but all I heard about today were landslides.



Plzs read back in the commits and you will no what took place
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115359
1182. Xyrus2000
1:08 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1171. LargoFl:
I think people forget..earths climate is always changing,never stays the same for long..no different in these so called modern times..we humans just need to adjust to the changes,something most other animals find hard to do..but we are somewhat different..we can


No one is "forgetting" that climate changes, least of all the climatologist and paleoclimatologists who actually research in these areas. Even in recent history regional climate changes have destroyed civilizations.

But it is different this time around. WE are changing the climate through a combination of our actions. WE are inducing changes at a rate not seen except during extinction level events. These changes are having and will continue to have consequences.

The planet will be fine. Life will adapt as it always does. The problem here is how WE will adapt. At this moment, we aren't even trying. The longer we don't do anything, the more costly it will become to actually address the issues when they do occur.

Short of the extremely unlikely event of a runaway greenhouse effect, humans will survive a warmer globe. How we survive is a different matter entirely.

Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1560
1181. biff4ugo
1:07 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
With the quake that big and shallow, have there been any waves? I saw the warnings last night but all I heard about today were landslides.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1590
1180. biff4ugo
1:05 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Good Morning!

Boring, Repetitive, Precise...that is what machines are for.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 115 Comments: 1590
1179. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:05 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
clearer 3d image
purple circles are quakes largest is 8.3
red green line compass heading
dark blue up down
lite blue fault line
white line coastal area

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
1178. Naga5000
1:04 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1175. beell:


but can they fart to the tune of "Yankee Doodle Dandy"?


You better believe it, brother! :)
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 3621
1177. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:03 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1176. Waltanater:
Nice try on that April Fools' joke! LOL Good one.
IT WAS NOT A JOKE THERE WAS A 8.3 OFFSHORE QUAKE LAST NIGHT WHICH GENERATED LOCAL WAVE ACTION
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
1176. Waltanater
1:00 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 956. Patrap:

000
WEPA40 PHEB 020131
TSUPAC

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 004
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0131Z 02 APR 2014

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

CHILE / PERU / ECUADOR / COLOMBIA / PANAMA

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA / EL SALVADOR / GUATEMALA / MEXICO /
HONDURAS

FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN... IT IS FOR
INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 2347Z 01 APR 2014
COORDINATES - 19.8 SOUTH 70.8 WEST
DEPTH - 10 KM
LOCATION - NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE
MAGNITUDE - 8.2

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
MEJILLONES CL 23.1S 70.5W 0103Z 0.86M / 2.8FT 32MIN
MATARANI PE 17.0S 72.1W 0108Z 0.56M / 1.8FT 10MIN
TOCOPILLA CL 22.1S 70.2W 0109Z 0.42M / 1.4FT 10MIN
PISAGUA CL 19.6S 70.2W 0055Z 1.96M / 6.4FT 12MIN
ARICA CL 18.5S 70.3W 0021Z 0.98M / 3.2FT 36MIN
ANTOFAGASTA CL 23.7S 70.4W 0034Z 0.25M / 0.8FT 18MIN
PATACHE CL 20.8S 70.2W 0015Z 1.51M / 5.0FT 10MIN
IQUIQUE CL 20.2S 70.1W 0005Z 2.11M / 6.9FT 12MIN

LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.

FOR ALL AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
CHILE IQUIQUE 20.2S 289.9E 0002Z 02 APR
ARICA 18.5S 289.7E 0011Z 02 APR
ANTOFAGASTA 23.3S 289.6E 0017Z 02 APR
CALDERA 27.1S 289.2E 0046Z 02 APR
COQUIMBO 29.9S 288.6E 0111Z 02 APR
VALPARAISO 33.0S 288.4E 0135Z 02 APR
TALCAHUANO 36.7S 286.9E 0219Z 02 APR
CORRAL 39.8S 286.5E 0251Z 02 APR
GOLFO_DE_PENAS 47.1S 285.1E 0403Z 02 APR
EASTER_ISLAND 27.1S 250.6E 0532Z 02 APR
PUERTO_MONTT 41.5S 287.0E 0546Z 02 APR
PERU MOLLENDO 17.1S 288.0E 0021Z 02 APR
SAN_JUAN 15.3S 284.8E 0039Z 02 APR
LA_PUNTA 12.1S 282.8E 0131Z 02 APR
TALARA 4.6S 278.5E 0218Z 02 APR
CHIMBOTE 9.0S 281.2E 0225Z 02 APR
PIMENTAL 6.9S 280.0E 0250Z 02 APR
ECUADOR LA_LIBERTAD 2.2S 278.8E 0239Z 02 APR
ESMERELDAS 1.2N 280.2E 0327Z 02 APR
BALTRA_ISLAND 0.5S 269.7E 0429Z 02 APR
COLOMBIA TUMACO 1.8N 281.1E 0346Z 02 APR
BAHIA_SOLANO 6.3N 282.6E 0417Z 02 APR
BUENAVENTURA 3.8N 282.8E 0433Z 02 APR
PANAMA PUERTO_PINA 7.4N 282.0E 0427Z 02 APR
PUNTA_MALA 7.5N 280.0E 0429Z 02 APR
PUNTA_BURICA 8.0N 277.1E 0441Z 02 APR
BALBOA_HEIGHTS 9.0N 280.4E 0645Z 02 APR
COSTA RICA CABO_MATAPALO 8.4N 276.7E 0441Z 02 APR
PUERTO_QUEPOS 9.4N 275.8E 0514Z 02 APR
CABO_SAN_ELENA 10.9N 274.0E 0531Z 02 APR
NICARAGUA SAN_JUAN_DL_SUR 11.2N 274.1E 0557Z 02 APR
PUERTO_SANDINO 12.2N 273.2E 0609Z 02 APR
CORINTO 12.5N 272.8E 0609Z 02 APR
EL SALVADOR ACAJUTLA 13.6N 270.2E 0628Z 02 APR
GUATEMALA SIPICATE 13.9N 268.8E 0642Z 02 APR
MEXICO PUERTO_MADERO 14.8N 267.5E 0649Z 02 APR
ACAPULCO 16.9N 260.1E 0711Z 02 APR
SALINA_CRUZ 16.5N 264.8E 0713Z 02 APR
HONDURAS AMAPALA 13.2N 272.4E 0655Z 02 APR

BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.

THE U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.
Nice try on that April Fools' joke! LOL Good one.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
1175. beell
12:56 PM GMT on April 02, 2014
Quoting 1173. Xyrus2000:


Machines are BETTER than the humans that make and program them for the tasks they're made for. That's why we make them. They do the tasks more efficiently, consistently, and with far less error than a human could.


but can they fart to the tune of "Yankee Doodle Dandy"?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16878

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.