IPCC: Climate Change Increasing Risk of Hunger, Thirst, Disease, Refugees, and War

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:42 AM GMT on March 31, 2014

Climate change is already having "widespread impacts", and has the potential to worsen global hunger, water availability, disease, drought, flooding, refugees, and war in the coming decades if we do nothing to reduce it, said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) today, in the latest installment of their once-every-seven-year report on the climate. Today's report on climate change impacts and how we can adapt to them warned that "throughout the 21st century, climate-change impacts are projected to slow down economic growth, make poverty reduction more difficult, further erode food security, and prolong existing and create new poverty traps." Today's report by the Nobel-prize winning group of scientists was the second of four parts. Part 1, released in September 2013, covered the physical science behind climate change. Part 3 (due out in mid-April, 2014) will discuss how we can mitigate (reduce) climate change impacts. Part 4 (due out in early November, 2014) will present a grand summary of Parts 1, 2, and 3. Some key themes from today's report:

Food supplies will tighten. To me, the most important finding of the report is the climate change's threat to reduce global food supplies, which have already been negatively impacted, and are at risk to get much worse: “Based on many studies covering a wide range of regions and crops, negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts. Climate change has negatively affected wheat and maize (corn) yields for many regions and in the global aggregate." For the future, the report acknowledges that some areas will likely see increases in food production, due to increased CO2 in the air and more favorable precipitation, but the overall global trend in food supplies will likely be downward (Figure 1.) This downward trend in yields will occur in the face of rapidly increasing demand, as the population grows by 2 billion, resulting in "increased likelihood of under-nutrition resulting from diminished food production in poor regions."


Figure 1. Summary of projected changes in crop yields, due to climate change over the 21st century. The figure includes projections for different emission scenarios, for tropical and temperate regions, and for adaptation and no-adaptation cases combined. Over the period 2010 - 2029, about as many scenarios predict an increase in global crop yields as predict a decrease. However, beyond 2030, more than twice as many scenarios predict a decrease versus an increase. Relatively few studies have considered impacts on cropping systems for scenarios where global mean temperatures increase by 4°C or more. For five time frames in the near-term and long-term, data (n=1090) are plotted in the 20-year period on the horizontal axis that includes the midpoint of each future projection period. Changes in crop yields are relative to late-20th-century levels. Data for each time frame sum to 100%. Image credit: IPCC.

Water availability to people will decrease, as wet areas get wetter and dry areas get drier. Not only does climate change pose huge risks to our food supply, it also threatens water availability. “The fraction of global population experiencing water scarcity and the fraction affected by major river floods increase with the level of warming in the 21st century.”

We're not adapting fast enough to avoid serious damage. The report talks about "adaptation deficits", as demonstrated by our relatively poor ability to respond to impacts from from recent extreme climatic events. "Climate-change-related risks from extreme events, such as heat waves, extreme precipitation, and coastal flooding, are already moderate (high confidence) and high with 1°C additional warming (medium confidence)." IPCC author and Princeton Professor Michael Oppenheimer put it more succinctly to the Associated Press: “We’re all sitting ducks.”

Poor people are most at risk from climate change. Climate-related hazards constitute an additional burden to people living in poverty, acting as a threat multiplier.

Climate change increases the risk of violence. For the first time, the IPCC lays out the case that climate change can add a destabilizing factor that can make violence more likely in countries with social and economic inequalities. "Climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts in the form of civil war and inter-group violence by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks."

Climate change increases the risk of more refugees. "Displacement risk increases when populations that lack the resources for planned migration experience higher exposure to extreme weather events."

Climate change will be costly. Though the uncertainties are high, the costs for an additional 2°C rise in temperature are thought to be between 0.2 and 2.0% of global GDP. "Losses are more likely than not to be greater, rather than smaller, than this range, since it is difficult to account for catastrophic changes, tipping points, and many other factors."

Human health will suffer. "Throughout the 21st century, climate change is expected to lead to increases in ill-health in many regions and especially in developing countries with low income…the magnitude and severity of negative impacts are projected to increasingly outweigh positive impacts. Examples include greater likelihood of injury, disease, and death due to more intense heat waves and fires; increased likelihood of under-nutrition resulting from diminished food production in poor regions; risks from lost work capacity and reduced labor productivity in vulnerable populations; and increased risks from food- and water-borne diseases and vector-borne diseases" (like malaria.)

We can take action to reduce these substantial risks. "Mitigation is considered essential for managing the risks of climate change." Mitigation refers to human actions to reduce climate change. Burning fewer fossil fuels and thus putting less CO2 in the air is essential to mitigating climate change. We should view the next few decades as the era of ‘climate responsibility’, when we can make a huge difference to keep our future climate livable. The report emphasizes that if greenhouse gases continue to rise, the world can expect an additional 6 - 7°F (3.5 - 4°C) of warming by 2100, instead of the international goal of keeping this rise less than 2°F (1.2°C). Princeton's Dr. Oppenheimer compared these two choices as "the difference between driving on an icy road at 30 mph versus 90 mph. It's risky at 30, but deadly at 90." Uncertainty is not a reason to delay climate action, and it is cheaper to act now on climate change than to delay. The International Energy Agency said in 2013 that in order to keep global warming less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, "Delaying stronger climate action until 2020 would avoid $1.5 trillion in low-carbon investments up to that point, but an additional $5 trillion would then need to be invested through to 2035 to get back on track." The latest IPCC findings will be a key discussion topic for world leaders at a September 23, 2014 Climate Summit in New York City, hosted by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. The summit aims to mobilize political will to pave the way for an ambitious global legal climate agreement to be signed at the critical December 2015 Conference of Parties (COP) negotiations in Paris.

Links
Associated Press coverage of the IPCC Part 2 report.

New Blockbuster IPCC Climate Report: Comprehensive, Authoritative, Conservative, my September 2013 post on who the IPCC is, and how they write their reports.

Landmark 2013 IPCC Report: 95% Chance Most of Global Warming is Human-Caused, my September 2013 post on Part I of the 2013 - 2014 IPCC report.


Video 1. The IPCC released this video to accompany today's release of their 2014 Impacts and Adaptation report.

Jeff Masters

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029
WUUS54 KSJT 020141
SVRSJT
TXC447-020230-
/O.NEW.KSJT.SV.W.0013.140402T0141Z-140402T0230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
841 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN THROCKMORTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 840 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ELBERT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND PETS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ELBERT AROUND 850 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3339 9894 3335 9894 3326 9895 3325 9918
3340 9921 3341 9913 3340 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 256DEG 30KT 3333 9909

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH


SN
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137203
Quoting 963. nrtiwlnvragn:
Previous:

... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...

NOTE REVISED MAGNITUDE OF 8.2

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

CHILE / PERU / ECUADOR

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

COLOMBIA / PANAMA / COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA / EL SALVADOR




Most recent:

... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

CHILE / PERU / ECUADOR / COLOMBIA / PANAMA

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA / EL SALVADOR / GUATEMALA / MEXICO /
HONDURAS



Link


Not good big change...
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Cumbre Vieja
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15 ft Tsunami wouldn't make it far inland like a 17 ft Storm Surge would...and did.

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Quoting Skyepony:



Probably not without getting a timeout..

LOL. I can speak Spanish enough to get by and was thinking they were saying in Spanish just what I'd be saying in English when a good shaker hit. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 25555
That is really comforting CRS.

and Skye - you are probably right about that timeout.
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Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad 6m

The whole earth is shaking from this M 8.2 quake check out the local SC seismograph. http://twitpic.com/e023wn Lots of seismic waves.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 17914
Going to make a quick point on here, and then back to the studying for my practical lab and buffer homework.

While experts and humans try to predict how many storms and tropical cyclones at the end of the day will form, it impossible to really predict the strength, number and landfall location for any of the systems that do form. Some year's the experts correctly forcast how many cyclones will form, other years, there are completely off. The science behind predicting the amount and strength of hurricanes is far from perfected or even nailed down.

And perhaps that is what drives so many people to have a love of tracking and observing these weather systems. The thrill of not knowing what will happen, even when a system does exist. The reality is that a tropical system could hit anywhere in the Atlantic this year, at any intensity, or not hit a land mass at all.

However for each person that does pay attention to these systems, there is the most of the population that tends to forget about the hurricanes of seasons past. There are some notable exceptions, Hurricane Andrew decimated and forever scared the community's of South Miami Dade. Hurricane Katrina scarred New Orleans and the central gulf coastline, and recently Hurricane Sandy reshaped the coast of New Jersey. But for most of the citizens who were not directly affected, a hurricane has become a thing of the past.

Taking a observational turn, as the real estate market rebounds across the country, the thought of a hurricane affecting the market is an unpleasant site. But Hurricanes have and will always be a part of the cycle of life on Earth, and just like forest fires, they are essential for ecosystems.
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Quoting 952. Dakster:


That would be interesting to watch.


Have seen the Miss River Flowing North,during Hurricane Isaac @ Audubon turn in Aug 2012.

It also did it during Gustav in 08,

K in 05, and Betsy in 65.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137203
Speaking of Tsunamis...


Landslide in Gulf of Mexico could cause 15-foot tsunami on Louisiana coast

By Bob Marshall, Staff writer    March 28, 2014 11:24am   

If you thought sinking land and rising seas were the only things we had to worry about in south Louisiana, think again.

Tsunamis have now joined the list.

Researchers with the National Weather Service say a 15-foot wall of water could roll across Grand Isle if a landslide occurred in the Mississippi Canyon, a trench in the Gulf of Mexico floor about 30 miles off the mouth of the Mississippi River.

And unlike a hurricane, residents would have just an hour’s notice, not days.

Such landslides have happened about once every 1,000 years in that area – and that time frame is almost up.

“It should be stressed that it is a low probability event — one in a thousand — but it still is a credible event, and would be of a high impact,” said Joe Rua, the lead forecaster and Tsunami Program Manager for the Lake Charles office of the National Weather Service.

The National Weather Service directed its coastal offices to investigate tsunami possibilities after the devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Rua said his team found evidence of previous slides in the canyon, which could cause significant tsunamis.


The National Weather Service says a landslide into the Mississippi Canyon, about 30 miles off the Louisiana coast, could send a 15-foot tsunami toward Grand Isle. Landslides pose a danger to other Gulf Coast states as well.

The hypothetical landslide used in National Weather Service computer model was 13 miles wide, 40 miles long and dumped enough rocks and sediment into the canyon to fill 38 Superdomes. The Gulf is more than 7,000 feet deep at the edge of the canyon, which is another 300 feet deep at the site in the model.

“Basically, the material falling into the canyon would displace the water that is already there, and that would cause the wave,” Rua said. “It wouldn’t be very noticeable in the open Gulf, but as the wave reached the shallower water near the shore, it would rise up.

“We estimate it would be about 14 to 15 feet [high] at Grand Isle, 10.5 feet in St. Mary Parish, and about 4 feet in Cameron Parish.”

The height of the tsunami would drop quickly as it moved inshore, due to friction from the land. Rua said a 10.5-foot wave entering the Atchafalaya delta would only be 5 feet by the time it reached Morgan City.

“A hurricane’s storm surge doesn’t drop as quickly because the energy behind it — the storm — is moving with it,” Rua said. “The tsunami doesn’t have that. Once it hits land, it loses energy rapidly.”

The likely trigger of a future slide would be seismic activity, which has been rare in this area; the eruption of large gas bubbles through the sediment layers at the base of the area; or the sheer weight of the sediment resting on the edge of the canyon.

Rua said more modeling has to be done to fine-tune the results. The purpose of the exercise was to alert communities to tsunami risk so they could prepare for the possibility in case “this once-in-a-lifetime event occurs.”

“Basically, we will probably only have one chance to get it right, and there won’t be a do-over,” he said.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PRESENTATION


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Previous:

... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...

NOTE REVISED MAGNITUDE OF 8.2

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

CHILE / PERU / ECUADOR

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

COLOMBIA / PANAMA / COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA / EL SALVADOR




Most recent:

... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

CHILE / PERU / ECUADOR / COLOMBIA / PANAMA

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA / EL SALVADOR / GUATEMALA / MEXICO /
HONDURAS



Link
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Quoting 958. Dakster:


Can you translate what they are saying into English?

Probably not without getting a timeout..
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Quoting 959. Birthmark:

...from a suitable distance...in an unpopulated area


I was thinking from Toronto via Web Cam... With Keeper narrating.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 12170
Quoting Skyepony:

It's in between that first round of nausea and when things start falling is when it's almost impossible not to run. They always teach you things like get under a desk or strong table, but the urge to just run somewhere is overwhelming.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 25555
Quoting 952. Dakster:


That would be interesting to watch.

...from a suitable distance...in an unpopulated area
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Quoting 955. Skyepony:


Can you translate what they are saying into English?
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Sea Level Data Facility, Pisagua_CL, Chili

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 17914

000
WEPA40 PHEB 020131
TSUPAC

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 004
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0131Z 02 APR 2014

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

CHILE / PERU / ECUADOR / COLOMBIA / PANAMA

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA / EL SALVADOR / GUATEMALA / MEXICO /
HONDURAS

FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN... IT IS FOR
INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 2347Z 01 APR 2014
COORDINATES - 19.8 SOUTH 70.8 WEST
DEPTH - 10 KM
LOCATION - NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE
MAGNITUDE - 8.2

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
MEJILLONES CL 23.1S 70.5W 0103Z 0.86M / 2.8FT 32MIN
MATARANI PE 17.0S 72.1W 0108Z 0.56M / 1.8FT 10MIN
TOCOPILLA CL 22.1S 70.2W 0109Z 0.42M / 1.4FT 10MIN
PISAGUA CL 19.6S 70.2W 0055Z 1.96M / 6.4FT 12MIN
ARICA CL 18.5S 70.3W 0021Z 0.98M / 3.2FT 36MIN
ANTOFAGASTA CL 23.7S 70.4W 0034Z 0.25M / 0.8FT 18MIN
PATACHE CL 20.8S 70.2W 0015Z 1.51M / 5.0FT 10MIN
IQUIQUE CL 20.2S 70.1W 0005Z 2.11M / 6.9FT 12MIN

LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.

FOR ALL AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
CHILE IQUIQUE 20.2S 289.9E 0002Z 02 APR
ARICA 18.5S 289.7E 0011Z 02 APR
ANTOFAGASTA 23.3S 289.6E 0017Z 02 APR
CALDERA 27.1S 289.2E 0046Z 02 APR
COQUIMBO 29.9S 288.6E 0111Z 02 APR
VALPARAISO 33.0S 288.4E 0135Z 02 APR
TALCAHUANO 36.7S 286.9E 0219Z 02 APR
CORRAL 39.8S 286.5E 0251Z 02 APR
GOLFO_DE_PENAS 47.1S 285.1E 0403Z 02 APR
EASTER_ISLAND 27.1S 250.6E 0532Z 02 APR
PUERTO_MONTT 41.5S 287.0E 0546Z 02 APR
PERU MOLLENDO 17.1S 288.0E 0021Z 02 APR
SAN_JUAN 15.3S 284.8E 0039Z 02 APR
LA_PUNTA 12.1S 282.8E 0131Z 02 APR
TALARA 4.6S 278.5E 0218Z 02 APR
CHIMBOTE 9.0S 281.2E 0225Z 02 APR
PIMENTAL 6.9S 280.0E 0250Z 02 APR
ECUADOR LA_LIBERTAD 2.2S 278.8E 0239Z 02 APR
ESMERELDAS 1.2N 280.2E 0327Z 02 APR
BALTRA_ISLAND 0.5S 269.7E 0429Z 02 APR
COLOMBIA TUMACO 1.8N 281.1E 0346Z 02 APR
BAHIA_SOLANO 6.3N 282.6E 0417Z 02 APR
BUENAVENTURA 3.8N 282.8E 0433Z 02 APR
PANAMA PUERTO_PINA 7.4N 282.0E 0427Z 02 APR
PUNTA_MALA 7.5N 280.0E 0429Z 02 APR
PUNTA_BURICA 8.0N 277.1E 0441Z 02 APR
BALBOA_HEIGHTS 9.0N 280.4E 0645Z 02 APR
COSTA RICA CABO_MATAPALO 8.4N 276.7E 0441Z 02 APR
PUERTO_QUEPOS 9.4N 275.8E 0514Z 02 APR
CABO_SAN_ELENA 10.9N 274.0E 0531Z 02 APR
NICARAGUA SAN_JUAN_DL_SUR 11.2N 274.1E 0557Z 02 APR
PUERTO_SANDINO 12.2N 273.2E 0609Z 02 APR
CORINTO 12.5N 272.8E 0609Z 02 APR
EL SALVADOR ACAJUTLA 13.6N 270.2E 0628Z 02 APR
GUATEMALA SIPICATE 13.9N 268.8E 0642Z 02 APR
MEXICO PUERTO_MADERO 14.8N 267.5E 0649Z 02 APR
ACAPULCO 16.9N 260.1E 0711Z 02 APR
SALINA_CRUZ 16.5N 264.8E 0713Z 02 APR
HONDURAS AMAPALA 13.2N 272.4E 0655Z 02 APR

BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.

THE U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.
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000
WEHW42 PHEB 020132
TIBHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-020332 -

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 4
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
332 PM HST TUE APR 01 2014

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION IS REQUIRED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER... THE TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII IS STILL
BEING EVALUATED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0147 PM HST 01 APR 2014
COORDINATES - 19.8 SOUTH 70.8 WEST
LOCATION - OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE
MAGNITUDE - 8.2 MOMENT

EVALUATION

THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EXPANDING
REGIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
LOCATED CLOSER TO THE EARTHQUAKE. AN EVALUATION OF THE PACIFIC
WIDE TSUNAMI THREAT IS UNDERWAY AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
HAWAII COULD BE ELEVATED TO A WATCH OR WARNING STATUS.

IF TSUNAMI WAVES IMPACT HAWAII THEIR ESTIMATED EARLIEST ARRIVAL
TIME IS

0324 AM HST WED 02 APR 2014

FURTHER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT UNTIL THE THREAT TO HAWAII HAS PASSED.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137203
Quoting Dakster:


You know I tracked that and found that to be true to an extent. Almost like it released pressure on one side and crated pressure on the other side of the plate. They seem to bounce back and forth around the globe.

And yes, Florida and Alabama are looking good until Hurricane Season starts. But there is one area out in the Ocean that if it goes, a huge tsunami could wipe out Florida... And we have no where to run...

Well, there's always something lurking out there waiting to cause a disaster in Florida...except for Tampa Bay, of course. (That was supposed to be a funny joke).
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 25555
Quoting 947. Birthmark:

At least it won't cause a tsunami, although the last big quake there did cause the Mississippi to flow backwards.



That would be interesting to watch.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 12170
Quoting Birthmark:

At least it won't cause a tsunami, although the last big quake there did cause the Mississippi to flow backwards.


It did form Reelfoot Lake though, if I remember right, which is very doubtful sometimes...
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 25555
Quoting 943. sar2401:

There are some teleconnections between earthquakes. Seismologists haven't figured it all out yet but there's evidence of sympathetic quakes. I have no idea if that means this one will result in a large quake somewhere else, or if this quake was in sympathetic reaction to the recent one in LA, for example. I do know that Florida and Alabama are looking pretty good right now.


You know I tracked that and found that to be true to an extent. Almost like it released pressure on one side and crated pressure on the other side of the plate. They seem to bounce back and forth around the globe.

And yes, Florida and Alabama are looking good until Hurricane Season starts. But there is one area out in the Ocean that if it goes, a huge tsunami could wipe out Florida... And we have no where to run...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 12170
Removed the Storm Track to note the curving.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137203
Quoting Dakster:


It certainty wasn't a funny joke...

How about some unfunny jokes then...

Just don't bother, makes life a lot easier.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 25555
Quoting 904. Dakster:


Even a nice 6.0 aftershock could generate a nice one if the conditions are right. And this could happen as well.

Anyone care to comment on the prediction of a 8.6 along the new Madrid Fault in the US?

At least it won't cause a tsunami, although the last big quake there did cause the Mississippi to flow backwards.

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This is actually extremely similar to the 1946 Aleutian Island earthquake/tsunami. Happened on the same day, with a similar magnitude and depth.
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Quoting 867. Stormchaser121:


Interesting and a well constructed graphic

Quick question out of curiosity, what is this prediction based on?
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Cell LO is now looking very much like a severe right mover.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137203
Quoting Dakster:


A little shake rattle and rolling though makes you think it could happen sooner rather than later.

There are some teleconnections between earthquakes. Seismologists haven't figured it all out yet but there's evidence of sympathetic quakes. I have no idea if that means this one will result in a large quake somewhere else, or if this quake was in sympathetic reaction to the recent one in LA, for example. I do know that Florida and Alabama are looking pretty good right now.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 439 Comments: 137203
Quoting 936. Tazmanian:



This is no time for funny jokes


It certainty wasn't a funny joke...
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 61092
Quoting 924. no1der:
It's one of those certainties - on the order of centuries - that are so hard to scale down to real risks in your own lifetime if you live in such a place.
 



A little shake rattle and rolling though makes you think it could happen sooner rather than later.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 12170
Quoting nwobilderburg:
this was the 7th 8.0+ earthquake since 2010

That area of Chile has had the largest reported earthquakes in modern times. It's almost in constant motion. It wouldn't be my first choice for a beach house.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 25555
Quoting 904. Dakster:


Even a nice 6.0 aftershock could generate a nice one if the conditions are right. And this could happen as well.

Anyone care to comment on the prediction of a 8.6 along the new Madrid Fault in the US?
The New Madrid Fault is a freaky one to say the least..Very different from faults that are usually responsible for the large and devastating quakes. New Madrid however has produced massive quakes and will undoubtedly produce more.....Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 26897
Quoting 930. Andrebrooks:
What is that suppose to be, a struggling wave.:)



This is no time for funny jokes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Weather station at Iquique, Chile airport hasn't reported since the quake so there was a power outage at least. Closest city of any size to the quake epicenter.
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Hope everyone survived the earthquake, keep them up in prayers. And please no miners working,remember 2012.This is when the Chilean Miners got trapped under a lot of rock and they were stuck under it for forty days or so, without seeing light for forty days or more. Just please lord, help them I this time of misery.:(
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 36 Comments: 1897
Quoting 929. nwobilderburg:
this was the 7th 8.0+ earthquake since 2010

the strike was shallow, this represents a big wave hit onshore
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14876
I guess you can say a cumulus cloud broke the cap in Throckmorton county, TX.
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Quoting 928. sar2401:

They're evacuating? It looks like a street party.

well, they do what they do...
I just laugh...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14876
Quoting 748. Patrap:
O Lordy'



What is that suppose to be, a struggling wave.:)
Member Since: March 25, 2013 Posts: 36 Comments: 1897
this was the 7th 8.0+ earthquake since 2010
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
yep.. get out of there


Residents evacuating coastal areas of Antofagasta, Chile due to #tsunami warning.

They're evacuating? It looks like a street party.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 25555
Quoting 925. sar2401:

Blue, I was joking. The YouTube video showed nothing of any importance. Twitter generally has too many things of even less importance. The news will get around somehow.


That's why you have to careful who you follow on Twitter. There are reliable people that can tweet what's going on almost as soon as it occurred.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WEAK53 PAAQ 020038
TIBAK1

PUBLIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
538 PM PDT TUE APR 1 2014

UPDATES IN THIS MESSAGE INCLUDE A REVISED MAGNITUDE.
UPDATES IN THIS MESSAGE INCLUDE NEW OBSERVATIONS.

...THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR ALASKA/ BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ WASHINGTON/ OREGON AND CALIFORNIA...

EVALUATION
----------
* A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT
THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE.

* THE U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IS ANALYZING
THE EVENT TO DETERMINE THE LEVEL OF DANGER.

* MORE INFORMATION WILL BE ISSUED AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE.

* THIS EARTHQUAKE HAS GENERATED A LARGE
TSUNAMI IN THE SOURCE REGION.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS - UPDATED
-------------------------------------------
* MAGNITUDE 8.2
* ORIGIN TIME 1547 AKDT APR 01 2014
1647 PDT APR 01 2014
2347 UTC APR 01 2014
* COORDINATES 19.8 SOUTH 70.8 WEST
* DEPTH 6 MILES
* LOCATION NEAR COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE


OBSERVATIONS OF TSUNAMI ACTIVITY - UPDATED
------------------------------------------
TIME OBSERVED MAX
SITE OF MEASUREMENT TSUNAMI HEIGHT
---------------------------- --------------- --------------
PISAGUA CHILE 2352 UTC 04-01 06.5FT
IQUIQUE CHILE 2357 UTC 04-01 05.8FT
DART32401ST CHILE 0011 UTC 04-02 00.8FT
PATACHE CHILE 0006 UTC 04-02 05.6FT
ARICA CHILE 0014 UTC 04-02 02.8FT
MATARANI PERU 0020 UTC 04-02 01.8FT

HEIGHT - OBSERVED MAX TSUNAMI HEIGHT IS THE WATER LEVEL ABOVE THE
TIDE LEVEL AT THE TIME OF MEASUREMENT.


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------
* MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY TO KEEP YOU INFORMED OF THE
PROGRESS OF THIS EVENT.

* REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

* PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA... OREGON...
WASHINGTON... BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES AT PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

$$



Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 195 Comments: 61092
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Twitter is much, much faster. You'll be amazed if you have one.

Blue, I was joking. The YouTube video showed nothing of any importance. Twitter generally has too many things of even less importance. The news will get around somehow.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 25555

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Dr. Masters (r) co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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