IPCC: Climate Change Increasing Risk of Hunger, Thirst, Disease, Refugees, and War

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:42 AM GMT on March 31, 2014

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Climate change is already having "widespread impacts", and has the potential to worsen global hunger, water availability, disease, drought, flooding, refugees, and war in the coming decades if we do nothing to reduce it, said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) today, in the latest installment of their once-every-seven-year report on the climate. Today's report on climate change impacts and how we can adapt to them warned that "throughout the 21st century, climate-change impacts are projected to slow down economic growth, make poverty reduction more difficult, further erode food security, and prolong existing and create new poverty traps." Today's report by the Nobel-prize winning group of scientists was the second of four parts. Part 1, released in September 2013, covered the physical science behind climate change. Part 3 (due out in mid-April, 2014) will discuss how we can mitigate (reduce) climate change impacts. Part 4 (due out in early November, 2014) will present a grand summary of Parts 1, 2, and 3. Some key themes from today's report:

Food supplies will tighten. To me, the most important finding of the report is the climate change's threat to reduce global food supplies, which have already been negatively impacted, and are at risk to get much worse: “Based on many studies covering a wide range of regions and crops, negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts. Climate change has negatively affected wheat and maize (corn) yields for many regions and in the global aggregate." For the future, the report acknowledges that some areas will likely see increases in food production, due to increased CO2 in the air and more favorable precipitation, but the overall global trend in food supplies will likely be downward (Figure 1.) This downward trend in yields will occur in the face of rapidly increasing demand, as the population grows by 2 billion, resulting in "increased likelihood of under-nutrition resulting from diminished food production in poor regions."


Figure 1. Summary of projected changes in crop yields, due to climate change over the 21st century. The figure includes projections for different emission scenarios, for tropical and temperate regions, and for adaptation and no-adaptation cases combined. Over the period 2010 - 2029, about as many scenarios predict an increase in global crop yields as predict a decrease. However, beyond 2030, more than twice as many scenarios predict a decrease versus an increase. Relatively few studies have considered impacts on cropping systems for scenarios where global mean temperatures increase by 4°C or more. For five time frames in the near-term and long-term, data (n=1090) are plotted in the 20-year period on the horizontal axis that includes the midpoint of each future projection period. Changes in crop yields are relative to late-20th-century levels. Data for each time frame sum to 100%. Image credit: IPCC.

Water availability to people will decrease, as wet areas get wetter and dry areas get drier. Not only does climate change pose huge risks to our food supply, it also threatens water availability. “The fraction of global population experiencing water scarcity and the fraction affected by major river floods increase with the level of warming in the 21st century.”

We're not adapting fast enough to avoid serious damage. The report talks about "adaptation deficits", as demonstrated by our relatively poor ability to respond to impacts from from recent extreme climatic events. "Climate-change-related risks from extreme events, such as heat waves, extreme precipitation, and coastal flooding, are already moderate (high confidence) and high with 1°C additional warming (medium confidence)." IPCC author and Princeton Professor Michael Oppenheimer put it more succinctly to the Associated Press: “We’re all sitting ducks.”

Poor people are most at risk from climate change. Climate-related hazards constitute an additional burden to people living in poverty, acting as a threat multiplier.

Climate change increases the risk of violence. For the first time, the IPCC lays out the case that climate change can add a destabilizing factor that can make violence more likely in countries with social and economic inequalities. "Climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts in the form of civil war and inter-group violence by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks."

Climate change increases the risk of more refugees. "Displacement risk increases when populations that lack the resources for planned migration experience higher exposure to extreme weather events."

Climate change will be costly. Though the uncertainties are high, the costs for an additional 2°C rise in temperature are thought to be between 0.2 and 2.0% of global GDP. "Losses are more likely than not to be greater, rather than smaller, than this range, since it is difficult to account for catastrophic changes, tipping points, and many other factors."

Human health will suffer. "Throughout the 21st century, climate change is expected to lead to increases in ill-health in many regions and especially in developing countries with low income…the magnitude and severity of negative impacts are projected to increasingly outweigh positive impacts. Examples include greater likelihood of injury, disease, and death due to more intense heat waves and fires; increased likelihood of under-nutrition resulting from diminished food production in poor regions; risks from lost work capacity and reduced labor productivity in vulnerable populations; and increased risks from food- and water-borne diseases and vector-borne diseases" (like malaria.)

We can take action to reduce these substantial risks. "Mitigation is considered essential for managing the risks of climate change." Mitigation refers to human actions to reduce climate change. Burning fewer fossil fuels and thus putting less CO2 in the air is essential to mitigating climate change. We should view the next few decades as the era of ‘climate responsibility’, when we can make a huge difference to keep our future climate livable. The report emphasizes that if greenhouse gases continue to rise, the world can expect an additional 6 - 7°F (3.5 - 4°C) of warming by 2100, instead of the international goal of keeping this rise less than 2°F (1.2°C). Princeton's Dr. Oppenheimer compared these two choices as "the difference between driving on an icy road at 30 mph versus 90 mph. It's risky at 30, but deadly at 90." Uncertainty is not a reason to delay climate action, and it is cheaper to act now on climate change than to delay. The International Energy Agency said in 2013 that in order to keep global warming less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, "Delaying stronger climate action until 2020 would avoid $1.5 trillion in low-carbon investments up to that point, but an additional $5 trillion would then need to be invested through to 2035 to get back on track." The latest IPCC findings will be a key discussion topic for world leaders at a September 23, 2014 Climate Summit in New York City, hosted by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. The summit aims to mobilize political will to pave the way for an ambitious global legal climate agreement to be signed at the critical December 2015 Conference of Parties (COP) negotiations in Paris.

Links
Associated Press coverage of the IPCC Part 2 report.

New Blockbuster IPCC Climate Report: Comprehensive, Authoritative, Conservative, my September 2013 post on who the IPCC is, and how they write their reports.

Landmark 2013 IPCC Report: 95% Chance Most of Global Warming is Human-Caused, my September 2013 post on Part I of the 2013 - 2014 IPCC report.


Video 1. The IPCC released this video to accompany today's release of their 2014 Impacts and Adaptation report.

Jeff Masters

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1175. beell
Quoting 1173. Xyrus2000:


Machines are BETTER than the humans that make and program them for the tasks they're made for. That's why we make them. They do the tasks more efficiently, consistently, and with far less error than a human could.


but can they fart to the tune of "Yankee Doodle Dandy"?
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1174. LargoFl
DOC...the new Beta site looks great!!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 51751
Quoting 1170. hydrus:
Machines are about as good as the humans that make and program them..It seems that its trial and error, then process of elimination.


Machines are BETTER than the humans that make and program them for the tasks they're made for. That's why we make them. They do the tasks more efficiently, consistently, and with far less error than a human could.
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1172. LargoFl














WWW.GLOBALINCIDENTMAP.COM

Type: EarthQuake
4 hours ago
Magnitude: 4.2
DateTime: 2014-04-02 03:51:38
Region: Oaxaca, Mexico
Depth: 121
Source: CSEM-EMSC Feed
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 51751
1171. LargoFl
I think people forget..earths climate is always changing,never stays the same for long..no different in these so called modern times..we humans just need to adjust to the changes,something most other animals find hard to do..but we are somewhat different..we can
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 51751
1170. hydrus
Quoting 1151. islander101010:
i would not be surprised in a few yrs we find out alot of the equip used to study earth is flawed. technology is nice but lets face it. the companies that are make these technical devices do so for a profit. do you really know what the water temp. is worldwide? the finding that are used on this blog are based on these machines. i dont trust them
Machines are about as good as the humans that make and program them..It seems that its trial and error, then process of elimination.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 25095
1169. ncstorm
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

After the lowest March Tornado count in at least 10 years, April looks active. Next 3 days, esp tomorrow, start it pic.twitter.com/9WK20By8ch

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 17369
1168. barbamz
Quoting 1167. VR46L:


Its been around here since sunday ... horrible





At least it's very unlikely that a hurricane could develop and hit UK, lol.
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1167. VR46L
Quoting 1166. barbamz:
Hi folks. As PlazaRed already has stated an exceptional high concentration of dust aka SAL is forecast to be advected to southwestern and western Europe, especially to the Mediterranean coast of Spain:


Saved image. Source: SKIRON.

Culprit is low "Karola":




Its been around here since sunday ... horrible



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1166. barbamz
Hi folks. As PlazaRed already has stated an exceptional high concentration of dust aka SAL is forecast to be advected to southwestern and western Europe, especially to the Mediterranean coast of Spain:


Saved image. Source: SKIRON.

Culprit is low "Karola":


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1165. LargoFl
sunny and warm here in my area supposedly today......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 51751
1164. ncstorm
Good Morning







Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 17369
1163. LargoFl
7day tampa bay,doesnt look like the cold gets here so far anyway...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 51751
1162. LargoFl
Good Morning!.......................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 51751
1161. VR46L
Good Morning folks!!!




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Bob's comments from 1154 to 1158, show a dramatic change in marginal regions.
Both are experiencing temp rises and in the case of Australia the area is already marginal desert and probably on it way to becoming real desert within the next few years.
A big area of food production taken out of the equation, meanwhile with increased populations the food demand is going to increase rapidly.
The Russian heat problem has an even more sinister aspect to it, in that there is a lot of permafrost up in those areas which will not only cause problems to the ground stability by melting but in itself also contribute's more greenhouse gases which are presently locked up in the frozen areas.
Meanwhile stable climatic areas with little climatic problems may start to experience changes soon leading to concern.
There certainly seems to be a lot more interest in climate change than there was a few years ago amongst the general background masses!
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Hey jus a heads up to you guys new TWO 5 day graphics example is shown on here
Link
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Quoting 1157. ColoradoBob1:
Australia experiencing more extreme heat, high fire danger days, says the latest State of the Climate report


Australia is being hit by more days of extreme heat and high fire danger, trends that may accelerate as the planet heats up, says the latest State of the Climate report by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.

The biennial survey found mean temperatures nationwide had risen 0.9 degrees since 1910 and will be another 0.6 to 1.5 degrees warmer by 2030, compared with the 1980-99 average. Further, southern Australia is drying out.

By 2050, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow at the pace of the past decade, temperatures will rise between 2.2 and 5 degrees above the 1980-99 average, the agencies said. "We expect there to be a continuation of (the) warming and probably an acceleration %u2026 in the decades to come," said Penny Whetton, a climate projection expert at CSIRO.


Link


The report makes for some grim reading for farmers reliant on cool season rains. Since the mid-1990s, rainfall in south-east Australia has fallen 25 per cent for April and May, and 15 per cent for the late-autumn, early-winter period.

South-west Western Australia, Australia's main source of wheat exports, has seen average winter rainfall sink 17 per cent since 1970, while run-off into streams has dropped by more than half.



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Australia experiencing more extreme heat, high fire danger days, says the latest State of the Climate report


Australia is being hit by more days of extreme heat and high fire danger, trends that may accelerate as the planet heats up, says the latest State of the Climate report by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.

The biennial survey found mean temperatures nationwide had risen 0.9 degrees since 1910 and will be another 0.6 to 1.5 degrees warmer by 2030, compared with the 1980-99 average. Further, southern Australia is drying out.

By 2050, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow at the pace of the past decade, temperatures will rise between 2.2 and 5 degrees above the 1980-99 average, the agencies said. "We expect there to be a continuation of (the) warming and probably an acceleration … in the decades to come," said Penny Whetton, a climate projection expert at CSIRO.


Link
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The weather appeared to be playing something of an April fool’s joke across much of South Australia, Victoria and parts of Tasmania on Tuesday. Many parts had their hottest April day in nine years with temperatures generally reaching the low to mid 30’s Celsius.

Meanwhile, some centres actually had their hottest April day in history. Hobart, Tasmania broke a 120 year old record with an afternoon temperature of 31 Celsius. This is 14 degrees above the monthly record and beats the previous April maximum set in 1941.


Link
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Quoting 1151. islander101010:
i would not be surprised in a few yrs we find out alot of the equip used to study earth is flawed. technology is nice but lets face it. the companies that are make these technical devices do so for a profit. do you really know what the water temp. is worldwide? the finding that are used on this blog are based on these machines. i dont trust them


If the Koch Brothers made them would you feel better ? Or maybe the Russians ?
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Quoting 202. ColoradoBob1:
NOVOSIBIRSK, Russia, April 2 (RIA Novosti) – Record-setting temperatures topping 71 degrees Fahrenheit (22 Celsius) were recorded Tuesday in several cities in Russia’s Siberia, a representative of the Novosibirsk meteorological service told RIA Novosti Wednesday.

“It was the hottest April 1 on record for several western Siberian cities, including Novosibirsk, Tomsk, Kemerovo, Barnaul and Gorno-Altaysk,” Renad Yagudin said.

“The average temperature in Russia has increased 0.4 degrees every ten years. Overall, the temperature in the area is 6.5-16.2 degrees Fahrenheit (2-9 Celsius) higher than the record set in 1989,” he added.

Wednesday was also expected to be a record-breaking day for western Siberia.

According to Aleksander Frolov, the head of Russia’s Agency on Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, global warming will have a greater impact on Russia than any other region in the world.

Link


In the last 35 years, the average temperature in Russia increased by 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit), while the average figure worldwide is 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.4 Fahrenheit), government meteorologists have said.

Some parts of Russia have shown even more extreme warming. In the Arctic, south Chukotka and Kamchatka regions temperatures have risen 150 to 200 percent more than in the rest of the country.

In October last year, Norwegian and Russian scientists said that surface water in the Barents Sea was 5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. They linked the peak-temperatures with the unusually warm summer in the northernmost parts of mainland Norway and on Russia's northern Kola Peninsula.
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Quoting 1151. islander101010:
i would not be surprised in a few yrs we find out alot of the equip used to study earth is flawed. technology is nice but lets face it. the companies that are make these technical devices do so for a profit. do you really know what the water temp. is worldwide? the finding that are used on this blog are based on these machines. i dont trust them


So... what do you trust? Human intuition, which is intrinsically more flawed?
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Morning form wet and windy southern Europe.
Meanwhile heavy air pollution and Saharan dust is forecast for the UK for the next few days:-

"People should be braced for "very high" levels of air pollution over the next few days, experts have warned.

The East of England and Midlands are the worst-affected areas today but large swathes of England and Wales will see high levels of pollution tomorrow, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) said."

Here's the link:-

Link
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i would not be surprised in a few yrs we find out alot of the equip used to study earth is flawed. technology is nice but lets face it. the companies that are make these technical devices do so for a profit. do you really know what the water temp. is worldwide? the finding that are used on this blog are based on these machines. i dont trust them
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 5704
1150. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:
Server issue, whatever it was, appears to be fixed now.

Not bad. Just over an hour. Maybe they'll still get one or two free candy bars...but that's it...and don't ever let it happen again. :-)

EDIT: Actually, I was being generous...more like an hour and forty-five minutes...OK, only one free candy bar and they get a nasty note put in their files.
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1149. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


I can't speak for all young people, but I'm realizing my mortality more and more as time goes on.

Doesn't help that our previous store manager died in a motorcycle accident last week. Coupled with the near-death accident I had myself last year, I realize it could happen anytime.

I still try and take the notion of mortality and nonexistence nonchalantly, though. Wouldn't be me without that lethargy, would I? :)

Yeah, those near death experiences are a wake up call at any age, but especially where you're young, and dying seems as a far away as the IPCC predictions of when we reach 200 degrees. Even though I'm a lot closer (statistically) to crossing that Stygian river than you, I really don't spend a lot of time worrying about it. I happen to be a Christian and hope I've been a good one so I can go to heaven just because it sounds like a really cool place, but I won't know if I made the right choice until about 3 seconds after it all turns to black. Maybe the Buddhists got it right...Mormons....atheists? I think I know , but I really don't know that I know. It's that faith thing.

So, the act of leaving the earth is kind of an adventure. It's the dying part I don't like. I hope I'm run over by a bus I never see coming. If not, I really hate pain, so just fill me up with enough narcotics that I have an easy ride across.
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Server issue, whatever it was, appears to be fixed now.
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Quoting 1145. sar2401:

Ya know, it wasn't until I was about 25 that I really, really understood I'd never be 16 again, I was going to get older, and I was going to die someday. It just didn't seem real before that. I wonder if all young people think like that or I'm just demented?


I can't speak for all young people, but I'm realizing my mortality more and more as time goes on.

Doesn't help that our previous store manager died in a motorcycle accident last week. Coupled with the near-death accident I had myself last year, I realize it could happen anytime.

I still try and take the notion of mortality and nonexistence nonchalantly, though. Wouldn't be me without that lethargy, would I? :)
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1146. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Day 2 Moderate Risk:


Is that the "new" significant? And what's "cyan"? :-)
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1145. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think it's Wednesday... Not sure. I get confused a lot too, and I'll be 23 in a week.

Hopefully it's just a subconscious defense mechanism to make my weekly Walmart hiatus seem longer than it actually is. Or maybe I'm just getting old. My dad and his good friend from Garden Center always said I would. I never believed them, though.

:)

Ya know, it wasn't until I was about 25 that I really, really understood I'd never be 16 again, I was going to get older, and I was going to die someday. It just didn't seem real before that. I wonder if all young people think like that or I'm just demented?
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1144. sar2401
It's been over 45 minutes now. More than a "Just push that reboot switch over there" kind of problem. Makes me wonder about how bad a really concentrated cyber attack by really smart bad guys could be. I also sometimes wonder if these smaller failures are just test runs. But I usually only think of these things late at night. :-)
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Quoting 1141. sar2401:

Thank you, Kori. Now, if I could just tell what day it is. It always takes me about a month to catch up since they started this daylight saving thing in March. :-)


I think it's Wednesday... Not sure. I get confused a lot too, and I'll be 23 in a week.

Hopefully it's just a subconscious defense mechanism to make my weekly Walmart hiatus seem longer than it actually is. Or maybe I'm just getting old. My dad and his good friend from Garden Center always said I would. I never believed them, though.

:)
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Day 2 Moderate Risk (in blue outline):

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1141. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


You're a lovable old guy, though. :)

Thank you, Kori. Now, if I could just tell what day it is. It always takes me about a month to catch up since they started this daylight saving thing in March. :-)
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Quoting 1136. sar2401:

Oh, yes....that kind of "1"...I see now...really, I'm an old guy, TA, have pity on me. :-)


You're a lovable old guy, though. :)
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Quoting 1134. sar2401:

Nah. A stern talking to and no free candy bars for a week. This is the government and public employees union we're talking about here. Now, if it's being run by a contractor...everyone gets fired. :-)

Lol yeah true dat
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1138. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:
Whelp, I shall make like NOAA's servers and go to bed. Night y'all.


GN, Astro.
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Quoting 1135. Astrometeor:


It says 0229 April 1 2014.

So, 2:29 April 1, not 2:29 on the 2nd.

Shh, I got this.
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1136. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It says "0229 AM CDT TUE APR 01 2014" which was almost 24 hours ago.

Oh, yes....that kind of "1"...I see now...really, I'm an old guy, TA, have pity on me. :-)
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Quoting 1131. sar2401:

What looks like 0229 to me here is actually a 1? If so, they have the worlds worst graphics...or I have the world's worst monitor. :-)


It says 0229 April 1 2014.

So, 2:29 April 1, not 2:29 on the 2nd.
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1134. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Somebody is a gonna get a fired

Nah. A stern talking to and no free candy bars for a week. This is the government and public employees union we're talking about here. Now, if it's being run by a contractor...everyone gets fired. :-)
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Quoting 1131. sar2401:

What looks like 0229 to me here is actually a 1? If so, they have the worlds worst graphics...or I have the world's worst monitor. :-)

It says "0229 AM CDT TUE APR 01 2014" which was almost 24 hours ago.
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Whelp, I shall make like NOAA's servers and go to bed. Night y'all.

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1131. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's a 1. ;)

What looks like 0229 to me here is actually a 1? If so, they have the worlds worst graphics...or I have the world's worst monitor. :-)
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1130. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


Boo! It was up right up until I saw sar's post! Then I re-fresh...and...poof! There it goes!

>:(

Sure....blame it on me. :-)
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Quoting 1127. sar2401:

It's sure not maintenance. Has the look of a software upgrade gone wrong. That could mean 10 minutes to 10 hours, depending on how fast they can track it down and how long it takes to fix. Could also be some bad hardware failure, but there are usually enough mirror sites to keep things running in that case. Oh well, the network guys get paid to be woken up at midnight with screams of distress. :-)

Somebody is a gonna get a fired
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Quoting 1126. sar2401:

Something funny going on there too. All the graphics show as issued at 0229 CDT Tuesday, April 2....time travel?

That's a 1. ;)
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1127. sar2401
Quoting Ameister12:
Most, but not all NOAA sites are down right now. I can still access the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and Central Pacific Hurricane Center websites, as well as a few others.

Hopefully it's just maintenance, but it they're having some kind of bigger issue, I can't imagine it taking too long to get resolved.

It's sure not maintenance. Has the look of a software upgrade gone wrong. That could mean 10 minutes to 10 hours, depending on how fast they can track it down and how long it takes to fix. Could also be some bad hardware failure, but there are usually enough mirror sites to keep things running in that case. Oh well, the network guys get paid to be woken up at midnight with screams of distress. :-)
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1126. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
All NOAA sites are down.

SPC stuff can be accessed here in the meantime.

Something funny going on there too. All the graphics show as issued at 0229 CDT Tuesday, April 2....time travel?
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1125. sar2401
Quoting Ameister12:
Most, but not all of them are down right now. I can still access the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and Central Pacific Hurricane Center websites, as well as a few others.

Weather.gov site look OK. It's the high level NOAA domain and all branches that appear to have bit the big one.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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