IPCC: Climate Change Increasing Risk of Hunger, Thirst, Disease, Refugees, and War

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:42 AM GMT on March 31, 2014

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Climate change is already having "widespread impacts", and has the potential to worsen global hunger, water availability, disease, drought, flooding, refugees, and war in the coming decades if we do nothing to reduce it, said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) today, in the latest installment of their once-every-seven-year report on the climate. Today's report on climate change impacts and how we can adapt to them warned that "throughout the 21st century, climate-change impacts are projected to slow down economic growth, make poverty reduction more difficult, further erode food security, and prolong existing and create new poverty traps." Today's report by the Nobel-prize winning group of scientists was the second of four parts. Part 1, released in September 2013, covered the physical science behind climate change. Part 3 (due out in mid-April, 2014) will discuss how we can mitigate (reduce) climate change impacts. Part 4 (due out in early November, 2014) will present a grand summary of Parts 1, 2, and 3. Some key themes from today's report:

Food supplies will tighten. To me, the most important finding of the report is the climate change's threat to reduce global food supplies, which have already been negatively impacted, and are at risk to get much worse: “Based on many studies covering a wide range of regions and crops, negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts. Climate change has negatively affected wheat and maize (corn) yields for many regions and in the global aggregate." For the future, the report acknowledges that some areas will likely see increases in food production, due to increased CO2 in the air and more favorable precipitation, but the overall global trend in food supplies will likely be downward (Figure 1.) This downward trend in yields will occur in the face of rapidly increasing demand, as the population grows by 2 billion, resulting in "increased likelihood of under-nutrition resulting from diminished food production in poor regions."


Figure 1. Summary of projected changes in crop yields, due to climate change over the 21st century. The figure includes projections for different emission scenarios, for tropical and temperate regions, and for adaptation and no-adaptation cases combined. Over the period 2010 - 2029, about as many scenarios predict an increase in global crop yields as predict a decrease. However, beyond 2030, more than twice as many scenarios predict a decrease versus an increase. Relatively few studies have considered impacts on cropping systems for scenarios where global mean temperatures increase by 4°C or more. For five time frames in the near-term and long-term, data (n=1090) are plotted in the 20-year period on the horizontal axis that includes the midpoint of each future projection period. Changes in crop yields are relative to late-20th-century levels. Data for each time frame sum to 100%. Image credit: IPCC.

Water availability to people will decrease, as wet areas get wetter and dry areas get drier. Not only does climate change pose huge risks to our food supply, it also threatens water availability. “The fraction of global population experiencing water scarcity and the fraction affected by major river floods increase with the level of warming in the 21st century.”

We're not adapting fast enough to avoid serious damage. The report talks about "adaptation deficits", as demonstrated by our relatively poor ability to respond to impacts from from recent extreme climatic events. "Climate-change-related risks from extreme events, such as heat waves, extreme precipitation, and coastal flooding, are already moderate (high confidence) and high with 1°C additional warming (medium confidence)." IPCC author and Princeton Professor Michael Oppenheimer put it more succinctly to the Associated Press: “We’re all sitting ducks.”

Poor people are most at risk from climate change. Climate-related hazards constitute an additional burden to people living in poverty, acting as a threat multiplier.

Climate change increases the risk of violence. For the first time, the IPCC lays out the case that climate change can add a destabilizing factor that can make violence more likely in countries with social and economic inequalities. "Climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts in the form of civil war and inter-group violence by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks."

Climate change increases the risk of more refugees. "Displacement risk increases when populations that lack the resources for planned migration experience higher exposure to extreme weather events."

Climate change will be costly. Though the uncertainties are high, the costs for an additional 2°C rise in temperature are thought to be between 0.2 and 2.0% of global GDP. "Losses are more likely than not to be greater, rather than smaller, than this range, since it is difficult to account for catastrophic changes, tipping points, and many other factors."

Human health will suffer. "Throughout the 21st century, climate change is expected to lead to increases in ill-health in many regions and especially in developing countries with low income…the magnitude and severity of negative impacts are projected to increasingly outweigh positive impacts. Examples include greater likelihood of injury, disease, and death due to more intense heat waves and fires; increased likelihood of under-nutrition resulting from diminished food production in poor regions; risks from lost work capacity and reduced labor productivity in vulnerable populations; and increased risks from food- and water-borne diseases and vector-borne diseases" (like malaria.)

We can take action to reduce these substantial risks. "Mitigation is considered essential for managing the risks of climate change." Mitigation refers to human actions to reduce climate change. Burning fewer fossil fuels and thus putting less CO2 in the air is essential to mitigating climate change. We should view the next few decades as the era of ‘climate responsibility’, when we can make a huge difference to keep our future climate livable. The report emphasizes that if greenhouse gases continue to rise, the world can expect an additional 6 - 7°F (3.5 - 4°C) of warming by 2100, instead of the international goal of keeping this rise less than 2°F (1.2°C). Princeton's Dr. Oppenheimer compared these two choices as "the difference between driving on an icy road at 30 mph versus 90 mph. It's risky at 30, but deadly at 90." Uncertainty is not a reason to delay climate action, and it is cheaper to act now on climate change than to delay. The International Energy Agency said in 2013 that in order to keep global warming less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, "Delaying stronger climate action until 2020 would avoid $1.5 trillion in low-carbon investments up to that point, but an additional $5 trillion would then need to be invested through to 2035 to get back on track." The latest IPCC findings will be a key discussion topic for world leaders at a September 23, 2014 Climate Summit in New York City, hosted by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. The summit aims to mobilize political will to pave the way for an ambitious global legal climate agreement to be signed at the critical December 2015 Conference of Parties (COP) negotiations in Paris.

Links
Associated Press coverage of the IPCC Part 2 report.

New Blockbuster IPCC Climate Report: Comprehensive, Authoritative, Conservative, my September 2013 post on who the IPCC is, and how they write their reports.

Landmark 2013 IPCC Report: 95% Chance Most of Global Warming is Human-Caused, my September 2013 post on Part I of the 2013 - 2014 IPCC report.


Video 1. The IPCC released this video to accompany today's release of their 2014 Impacts and Adaptation report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting flsky:
There was a recent segment on "60 Minutes" re commercially built and available drones. Looks to become a huge industry. I can see both good and bad outcomes.

Man flies drone over Harlem explosion site, NYPD steps in




USA made drones for commercial use



What a difference eight years makes. This thing we were experimenting with in 2006 looks like a toy compared to the drone helicopters available now.

Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13347
Quoting 76. Patrap:


In this first week since the mudslide in Oso, Washington, we have been mindful of the community’s express wishes that volunteers and organizations allow them to respond to the needs of their own. However, because we know that the needs of people with disabilities are so often overlooked, we are sending a representative today to survey the area.

We will not be accessing the immediate disaster zone, but rather checking on shelter and transportation accessibility, and other issues specific to the immediate needs of survivors who are disabled. We are also connecting with local Centers for Independent Living, to assist as needed with any requests for replacement of durable medical equipment, or medical/clinical supplies.

We will keep you updated on the situation as we receive new information. At this time, we are not requesting donations, but do want to thank you for your continued, generous support of our efforts!!

We couldn’t do what we do, without you!!



Patrap,

God Bless you for what you are doing for the disadvantaged at their times of need!

Semper Fi mate!
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Quoting pottery:
Good Evening all.

Hot and very dry, with bush-fires all over the place here.
93F at noon with 44% humidity. Winds S/E at 15 mph.

Looking at the various images, seems like the ITCZ is beginning to move this way though.
That would be very welcomed, but I'm not expecting that until June.

Evening, Pott. Long time, no hear. How are you doing? Except for the fires, at least 44% humidity is a good thing with a 93 degree temp. Perfect day in Alabama, high of 83, still 64, and no sign of an ice storm in the future. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13347
372. flsky
There was a recent segment on "60 Minutes" re commercially built and available drones. Looks to become a huge industry. I can see both good and bad outcomes.

Man flies drone over Harlem explosion site, NYPD steps in




USA made drones for commercial use


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 353. washingtonian115:
I'm glad that I've made many people bring out their inner anime geek :).


I just wanted to be one of the cool kids... plus I went without an icon for too long.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Evening all.

Hot and very dry, with bush-fires all over the place here.
93F at noon with 44% humidity. Winds S/E at 15 mph.

Looking at the various images, seems like the ITCZ is beginning to move this way though.
That would be very welcomed, but I'm not expecting that until June.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 350. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


it has a gps boomer rang command once unit flies out pass the control unit it will stall and remember its starting point as per gps location fly back and land itself at the start location

you can't lose it that was my first question on the phone

well you can but the return program kicks in once out of range of the ground base control unit


the one I am looking at comes ready to fly out of the box with 4 extra battery packs plus I ordered the super charger 4 packs at once full charge in 30 mins comes with one pack plus a free one

also order 8 extra propellers

total costs incl taxes and shipping 983.00
And I thought my carbon/titanium remote car was cool..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539
Quoting 366. pablosyn:


No...Rick forms in October 15th...this image is on November 5th...in the Pacific we had just an invest, that produced a strong flood in Guatemala. I remember this.

Darn.
I was trying to go off memory.
There was a tropical system in the EPAC that tried to form during Ida, but my mistake, it wasn't Rick.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1145
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


it has a gps boomer rang command once unit flies out pass the control unit it will stall and remember its starting point as per gps location fly back and land itself at the start location

you can't lose it that was my first question on the phone

well you can but the return program kicks in once out of range of the ground base control unit


the one I am looking at comes ready to fly out of the box with 4 extra battery packs plus I ordered the super charger 4 packs at once full charge in 30 mins comes with one pack plus a free one

also order 8 extra propellers

total costs incl taxes and shipping 983.00

Cool! You've got to do some videos when you get it. Are you going to launch it off the roof and gain some extra altitude? I want to hear what kind of command range you get with the it. One of the SAR teams that's using was saying the return home feature works well as long as you're not in area where you get obstructions to the GPS signals. They were testing it in rough terrain in some 5,000 foot mountains and ran into problems with control range ant return home thing. You shouldn't have those kind of problem in Toronto. One of the guys said there's an app where you can practice using your phone before you actually fly. If I had an extra $983 lying around, I'd buy one in a heartbeat, you lucky dog.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13347
Quoting 361. TylerStanfield:

That tropical wave interacted with a monsoonal low and split. One entity becoming Ida, and one becoming Rick.


No...Rick forms in October 15th...this image is on November 5th...in the Pacific we had just an invest, that produced a strong flood in Guatemala. I remember this.
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Quoting 359. washingtonian115:
Rick actually came from a tropical wave in the atlantic.It didn't do so well because of shear and it was southern based (It was a nice tropical wave).It ran into S.A.It took advantage of the conditions in the east-pacific.
It was good enough to warrant a mention in the TWO when it was at the longitude of Barbados and points thereabouts.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000

Quoting 363. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's these quiet seasons that have me worried.
Worried or excited? Don't hide. :)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
Quoting 356. KoritheMan:

Tampa-biased. Why am I not surprised? :)
It's these quiet seasons that have me worried.
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Quoting 351. TylerStanfield:

The tally for the cumulative activity in the central and eastern pacific in 2009 was 20 Named Storms, 8 Hurricanes and 5 Major Hurricanes.
It also had Hurricane Rick which became a potent Category 5 with 180 Mph ; 906 MB


That's my favorite hurricane of all time
Hurricane Rick... The second strongest in the epac
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting 359. washingtonian115:
Rick actually came from a tropical wave in the atlantic.It didn't do so well because of shear and it was southern based (It was a nice tropical wave).It ran into S.A.It took advantage of the conditions in the east-pacific.

EDIT: Nevermind my mistake. Ida formed from a monsoonal low, while the split off entity went into the EPAC and dissipated without being named.
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1145
Quoting 357. barbamz:
Gro, you're captured by NASA's Earth Observatory (picture of the day), lol:


Florida Landscapes, April 1, 2014
From farms and forests to wetlands and urban areas, southern Florida packs many diverse landscapes into a relatively small area. The dense Miami-Fort Lauderdale urban corridor lines the Atlantic Coast with block after block of silver in this scene acquired by the Landsat 5 satellite on November 10, 2011. The wetlands of the Everglades fill the southwestern quadrant of the image, a combination of muddy water (brown) and clear water (black). Green squares in the top center portion of the image are farms, and the uneven patches of dark green in the upper right are forests. ...

More see link above.


I live south of that shot...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting 351. TylerStanfield:

The tally for the cumulative activity in the central and eastern pacific in 2009 was 20 Named Storms, 8 Hurricanes and 5 Major Hurricanes.
It also had Hurricane Rick which became a potent Category 5 with 180 Mph ; 906 MB

Rick actually came from a tropical wave in the atlantic.It didn't do so well because of shear and it was southern based (It was a nice tropical wave).It ran into S.A.It took advantage of the conditions in the east-pacific.
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Quoting 353. washingtonian115:
I'm glad that I've made many people bring out their inner anime geek :).

More unnecessary rain is in the forecast and the streams and river are angry!
lots of snow upstate still to melt
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Gro, you're captured by NASA's Earth Observatory (picture of the day), lol:


Florida Landscapes, April 1, 2014
From farms and forests to wetlands and urban areas, southern Florida packs many diverse landscapes into a relatively small area. The dense Miami-Fort Lauderdale urban corridor lines the Atlantic Coast with block after block of silver in this scene acquired by the Landsat 5 satellite on November 10, 2011. The wetlands of the Everglades fill the southwestern quadrant of the image, a combination of muddy water (brown) and clear water (black). Green squares in the top center portion of the image are farms, and the uneven patches of dark green in the upper right are forests. ...

More see link above.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 52 Comments: 5690

Quoting 355. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I wonder if we will see a season like this, this year?

Tampa-biased. Why am I not surprised? :)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
I wonder if we will see a season like this, this year?

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Quoting 349. beell:


That metaphor is as lame as a duck. Not a metaphorical lame duck. A real duck that is actually lame.

Well I think you're lame too.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
Quoting 347. TimSoCal:


Exact opposite over here in the SFV. Tonight is when we get our most meaningful precip for a while.
I'm glad that I've made many people bring out their inner anime geek :).

More unnecessary rain is in the forecast and the streams and river are angry!
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One month for the start of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.

yes I know it really starts on May 15th...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting 303. trHUrrIXC5MMX:

Yes a 2009 Epac seems plausible this year

The tally for the cumulative activity in the central and eastern pacific in 2009 was 20 Named Storms, 8 Hurricanes and 5 Major Hurricanes.
It also had Hurricane Rick which became a potent Category 5 with 180 Mph ; 906 MB

Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 1145
Quoting 296. sar2401:

There's a lot of interest among the search and rescue community in the DJI drone helicopters. They're not cheap, at about $1900 fully equipped with real time cameras and controllers, but they are a lot cheaper than blade time on a piloted helicopter. Both the FAA and FCC are having some real heartburn with these. The FAA is concerned because, contrary to the commercials, these aren't toys, and the pilot needs to be experienced flying one. They've already had controlled flight at about 1,000 feet and it's unknown how high it can fly uncontrolled, but certainly 2,000 feet or more. Since they aren't certified by the FAA and anyone can buy them, there's some real concern about one getting away from the person flying it and interfering with normal aircraft traffic. It will keep flying for as long as the battery holds out, which is at least 25 minutes, and up to an hour with some modifications. The FCC is worked up because it used radio frequencies normally used for RC aircraft but these will fly so much higher than normal RC aircraft that they might start creating radio interference headaches. If DJI gets these problems worked out, they will have quite a market just for SAR teams.

Think about the utility of having a couple aboard ships searching for something like MH370 debris. You could send one out for over a mile from the ship and have it hover over an object of interest a couple of feet above the sea surface and get high quality real time pictures. That could help determine if it's a fishing float or something the ship should spend time trying to retrieve.

Pretty novel idea.


it has a gps boomer rang command once unit flies out pass the control unit it will stall and remember its starting point as per gps location fly back and land itself at the start location

you can't lose it that was my first question on the phone

well you can but the return program kicks in once out of range of the ground base control unit


the one I am looking at comes ready to fly out of the box with 4 extra battery packs plus I ordered the super charger 4 packs at once full charge in 30 mins comes with one pack plus a free one

also order 8 extra propellers

total costs incl taxes and shipping 983.00
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
349. beell
Quoting 342. KoritheMan:

My aunt used to recount the details of it to me as a kid.

Made me metaphorically wet my pants.


That metaphor is as lame as a duck. Not a metaphorical lame duck. A real duck that is actually lame.

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Ocean garbage frustrates search for Flight 370

WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) Of all of the objects that have been seen floating in the southern Indian Ocean in recent days, not one has turned out to be connected to Malaysian Airlines Flight 370.

The object sometimes turns out to be a snarled fishing line, or a buoy, or something that might once have been the lid to an ice box.

All of the floating garbage has been a time-wasting distraction for the air and sea crews that are searching for debris from the flight, which vanished more than three weeks ago.

One environmental advocate says searchers are working in the eastern edge of a giant floating garbage patch. Charles Moore compares it to "a toilet bowl that swirls but doesn't flush." Most of the trash can't even be seen. It's composed of tiny bits of plastic bobbing just below the surface. Moore says the larger items also tend to be plastic, and are often fishing-related.

Oceanographer Curtis Ebbesmeyer says within the large collections of garbage in the world's oceans, there are smaller collections. He says they're like "dust bunnies," and that they each move about ten miles a day.

He says he's fascinated by the trash that comes from the hundreds of shipping containers that are lost overboard from cargo ships each year. One container, he says, spilled 2,000 computer monitors. Another released thousands of pairs of Nike sneakers. And then there's one that keeps belching out Lego pieces onto the beaches of Cornwall, England.

2014 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127647
Quoting 331. PedleyCA:


Tuesday-Wednesday are the days we should have a meaningful storm. They said .25-1.00 out here in the Inland Empire.


Exact opposite over here in the SFV. Tonight is when we get our most meaningful precip for a while.
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346. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE. FORMER TC HELLEN (14-20132014)
4:00 AM RET April 1 2014
===============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Hellen (1004 hPa) located at 16.4S 45.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 16.8S 44.4E - (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS 17.3S 43.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS 18.4S 41.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS 18.9S 38.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=========================

The residual active convection of the system has almost totally vanished over Madagascar. The residual low level circulation center, overland, is difficult to locate.

According to the weakening of the system, most of the numerical weather prediction models forecast a movement west to southwestward for the residual low level circulation center within the next days, under the steering influence of the east to northeasterly flow generated by the subtropical ridge re-building south of Madagascar in the lower troposphere.

None of the available numerical weather prediction models, including the members of the ensemble prevision, forecasts a re-intensification when the low will come back over sea and cross the Mozambican channel.
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Interesting...I've read that too (via Nature) - allegedly SAL is partly repsonsible for the Amazon rainforest being what and where it is - the SAL brings in boatloads of minerals/nutrients.

Quoting 337. CaribBoy:


Oh really, lol I am very surprised :-)

Quoting 200. VR46L:


I recall reading that the SAL has beneficial effects on agriculture in the Americas .. but can I find the article now !
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Quoting 336. islander101010:
there is no cure for ebola and already has acc/ for 78 deaths


Yes and Ebola has a high fatality rate, depending on the strain as high as 90%. This has a possibility of becoming a pandemic since it has also spread now to sierra leone.

Sorry to say this, but those areas need to be quarantined. No one in or out until this is over.

Some work has been done on vaccines, which of course, do not help someone already infected. But the research is not done yet - so you can't get a vaccine for it yet.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting 321. evilpenguinshan:
Only in MN would the same area be under a tornado warning and a blizzard warning within a few hours.



Snownado.?..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539

Quoting 336. islander101010:
there is no cure for ebola and already has acc/ for 78 deaths
My aunt used to recount the details of it to me as a kid.

Made me metaphorically wet my pants.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
april showers bring may flowers?........
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Quoting 331. PedleyCA:


Tuesday-Wednesday are the days we should have a meaningful storm. They said .25-1.00 out here in the Inland Empire.


Felt any of the recent Earthquakes at your house?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting 310. knucklehead:


Color it any way you wish. You cannot grow crops on snow covered ground. And as for 'debunking' warm vs cold - go up on a glacier for a few days and see how that works out for you. Or even a snow covered mountain side. You'll be begging for some heat - real soon too.

The AGW true believers haven't figured it out yet but this climate warming is just one more way to try to control people and distribute wealth. But who is going to benefit from that distribution of wealth? The poor countries? HA! You have to be quite naive to think the UN will distribute that money without dipping heavily into it as it slides on by them. Oh - the poor countries will get a slice - a very small one.

The snow is still falling in spring across the midwest and the AGW idiots all line up and chirp like Al Gore saying "this is exactly what the scientists predicted" regardless of what the weather is doing. Sorry but you can't have a 'theory' that is all-inclusive regardless of the weather. For 17 years earth's temps have remained more or less stable. Seems to me we might worry a bit more about that cold snap that might be right around the corner. I maintain warm is better. You can't plow frozen ground.
LOL stupidity at its finest. I don't know what's worst, AGW Trolls or Hurricane Season Trolls? Nevertheless, thanks for the laugh. I needed it.
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Quoting 202. wunderkidcayman:

Umm no it's not normal for cayman March April May is part 1 of wettest month part 2 is Sept Oct and Nov with the rest of the months dry with the exceptions of Hurricanes and tropical waves


Ok, didn't know that...
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Quoting 200. VR46L:


I recall reading that the SAL has beneficial effects on agriculture in the Americas .. but can I find the article now !


Oh really, lol I am very surprised :-)
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there is no cure for ebola and already has acc/ for 78 deaths
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Quoting 299. Dakster:


Stop bragging. You are making us jealous that you don't have blood sucking parasites around you.


Oh wait. You do have politicians. Nevermind.


Here in DC we have plenty of both
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unusual outbreak of ebola in west africa. it all might of started because of human consumption of bats. acc/ to the google news the decease is affecting an urban area in guinea.
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Quoting 330. Dakster:
Barbamz - Must have been some brown seat cushions to clean when that plane landed.


According to German news passengers stayed calm, surprisingly :-)

The Daily Mail (sorry ;-)
'Ladies and gentlemen, you may have noticed we were hit by lightning': Pilot's calm announcement as plane is struck by THREE bolts at once
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 52 Comments: 5690

Quoting 301. TylerStanfield:


Could be a big year out there, if its anything like 2009's EPAC hurricane season was.
We need one like 1982, 1983, or 1997. Super El Nino style!
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20000
Quoting 327. TimSoCal:
Holy crap, it's going to rain tonight. Not much, but still...




Tuesday-Wednesday are the days we should have a meaningful storm. They said .25-1.00 out here in the Inland Empire.
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Barbamz - Must have been some brown seat cushions to clean when that plane landed.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034


:D
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Late hello and good night as well from Germany with:



Incredible Picture Shows KLM Flight From Amsterdam Hit By Lightning
The Huffington Post UK | By Paul Vale Posted: 31/03/2014 16:58 BST | Updated: 31/03/2014 17:59 BST


This is the pic taken just by chance in German news.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 52 Comments: 5690
Holy crap, it's going to rain tonight. Not much, but still...


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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting 315. georgevandenberghe:



I'll start worrying about cold when I see evidence of cooling. Here in the eastern U.S. we're temporarily (how long???!) stuck in a cold spot of the hemisphere that is once again warmer than average. It usually snows in the midwest in spring. It will thaw as it always does, even in the miserable springs of 1907 and 1961. Last year Minnesota had a huge dump in early May (southeast only). We'll see about this spring, it's way too early to tell if the rest of the season will even be notably cold. Spring/summer 1992 was a preview of what might happen with gross cooling (due to a volcanic eruption) with frost into June deep into the midwest. We got through it. The overall trend since the mid 70s has been for warming and the longer trend since the 1880s has been for warming (larger because of longer trendline).

Here's a nifty little graph of the GISS data set. I began for the 30 year period 1880-1909 and went through 2009, graphing the 30-year trend for every 10 years after. It looks like this:

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Looks like warming to me.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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