IPCC: Climate Change Increasing Risk of Hunger, Thirst, Disease, Refugees, and War

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:42 AM GMT on March 31, 2014

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Climate change is already having "widespread impacts", and has the potential to worsen global hunger, water availability, disease, drought, flooding, refugees, and war in the coming decades if we do nothing to reduce it, said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) today, in the latest installment of their once-every-seven-year report on the climate. Today's report on climate change impacts and how we can adapt to them warned that "throughout the 21st century, climate-change impacts are projected to slow down economic growth, make poverty reduction more difficult, further erode food security, and prolong existing and create new poverty traps." Today's report by the Nobel-prize winning group of scientists was the second of four parts. Part 1, released in September 2013, covered the physical science behind climate change. Part 3 (due out in mid-April, 2014) will discuss how we can mitigate (reduce) climate change impacts. Part 4 (due out in early November, 2014) will present a grand summary of Parts 1, 2, and 3. Some key themes from today's report:

Food supplies will tighten. To me, the most important finding of the report is the climate change's threat to reduce global food supplies, which have already been negatively impacted, and are at risk to get much worse: “Based on many studies covering a wide range of regions and crops, negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts. Climate change has negatively affected wheat and maize (corn) yields for many regions and in the global aggregate." For the future, the report acknowledges that some areas will likely see increases in food production, due to increased CO2 in the air and more favorable precipitation, but the overall global trend in food supplies will likely be downward (Figure 1.) This downward trend in yields will occur in the face of rapidly increasing demand, as the population grows by 2 billion, resulting in "increased likelihood of under-nutrition resulting from diminished food production in poor regions."


Figure 1. Summary of projected changes in crop yields, due to climate change over the 21st century. The figure includes projections for different emission scenarios, for tropical and temperate regions, and for adaptation and no-adaptation cases combined. Over the period 2010 - 2029, about as many scenarios predict an increase in global crop yields as predict a decrease. However, beyond 2030, more than twice as many scenarios predict a decrease versus an increase. Relatively few studies have considered impacts on cropping systems for scenarios where global mean temperatures increase by 4°C or more. For five time frames in the near-term and long-term, data (n=1090) are plotted in the 20-year period on the horizontal axis that includes the midpoint of each future projection period. Changes in crop yields are relative to late-20th-century levels. Data for each time frame sum to 100%. Image credit: IPCC.

Water availability to people will decrease, as wet areas get wetter and dry areas get drier. Not only does climate change pose huge risks to our food supply, it also threatens water availability. “The fraction of global population experiencing water scarcity and the fraction affected by major river floods increase with the level of warming in the 21st century.”

We're not adapting fast enough to avoid serious damage. The report talks about "adaptation deficits", as demonstrated by our relatively poor ability to respond to impacts from from recent extreme climatic events. "Climate-change-related risks from extreme events, such as heat waves, extreme precipitation, and coastal flooding, are already moderate (high confidence) and high with 1°C additional warming (medium confidence)." IPCC author and Princeton Professor Michael Oppenheimer put it more succinctly to the Associated Press: “We’re all sitting ducks.”

Poor people are most at risk from climate change. Climate-related hazards constitute an additional burden to people living in poverty, acting as a threat multiplier.

Climate change increases the risk of violence. For the first time, the IPCC lays out the case that climate change can add a destabilizing factor that can make violence more likely in countries with social and economic inequalities. "Climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts in the form of civil war and inter-group violence by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks."

Climate change increases the risk of more refugees. "Displacement risk increases when populations that lack the resources for planned migration experience higher exposure to extreme weather events."

Climate change will be costly. Though the uncertainties are high, the costs for an additional 2°C rise in temperature are thought to be between 0.2 and 2.0% of global GDP. "Losses are more likely than not to be greater, rather than smaller, than this range, since it is difficult to account for catastrophic changes, tipping points, and many other factors."

Human health will suffer. "Throughout the 21st century, climate change is expected to lead to increases in ill-health in many regions and especially in developing countries with low income…the magnitude and severity of negative impacts are projected to increasingly outweigh positive impacts. Examples include greater likelihood of injury, disease, and death due to more intense heat waves and fires; increased likelihood of under-nutrition resulting from diminished food production in poor regions; risks from lost work capacity and reduced labor productivity in vulnerable populations; and increased risks from food- and water-borne diseases and vector-borne diseases" (like malaria.)

We can take action to reduce these substantial risks. "Mitigation is considered essential for managing the risks of climate change." Mitigation refers to human actions to reduce climate change. Burning fewer fossil fuels and thus putting less CO2 in the air is essential to mitigating climate change. We should view the next few decades as the era of ‘climate responsibility’, when we can make a huge difference to keep our future climate livable. The report emphasizes that if greenhouse gases continue to rise, the world can expect an additional 6 - 7°F (3.5 - 4°C) of warming by 2100, instead of the international goal of keeping this rise less than 2°F (1.2°C). Princeton's Dr. Oppenheimer compared these two choices as "the difference between driving on an icy road at 30 mph versus 90 mph. It's risky at 30, but deadly at 90." Uncertainty is not a reason to delay climate action, and it is cheaper to act now on climate change than to delay. The International Energy Agency said in 2013 that in order to keep global warming less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, "Delaying stronger climate action until 2020 would avoid $1.5 trillion in low-carbon investments up to that point, but an additional $5 trillion would then need to be invested through to 2035 to get back on track." The latest IPCC findings will be a key discussion topic for world leaders at a September 23, 2014 Climate Summit in New York City, hosted by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. The summit aims to mobilize political will to pave the way for an ambitious global legal climate agreement to be signed at the critical December 2015 Conference of Parties (COP) negotiations in Paris.

Links
Associated Press coverage of the IPCC Part 2 report.

New Blockbuster IPCC Climate Report: Comprehensive, Authoritative, Conservative, my September 2013 post on who the IPCC is, and how they write their reports.

Landmark 2013 IPCC Report: 95% Chance Most of Global Warming is Human-Caused, my September 2013 post on Part I of the 2013 - 2014 IPCC report.


Video 1. The IPCC released this video to accompany today's release of their 2014 Impacts and Adaptation report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 420. sar2401:

Will any of it actually make it out to Riverside?


Doubt it, or it will be minimal. It says: Cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. If its wet outside in the morning I will know.
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424. beell
Quoting 392. nonblanche:


Usually caused by Bumblefoot, a bacterial infection from an injury.


Thank you. I learn something every time I visit!
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Quoting 416. Grothar:


Kori, I think you're funny.
I think I am too. But you see, I can never tell if the jokes I craft into my head are as funny as they actually sound in my head.

Something about personal bias, I think. :)
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Quoting 411. PedleyCA:
Good evening Sensei, how was your Day?


You're still up? It must be at least 8:15 there. We had a very nice day. A surprise visit from some friends from Europe. Weather was a very large part of the conversation. They also thought I looked fantastic.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27561
Quoting 418. PedleyCA:


You know what umbrellas are, right?


ive literally never used an umbrella... it was like pouring for 10 minutes... and then it stopped
Member Since: October 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 943
Quoting PedleyCA:


It'll be awhile.

Will any of it actually make it out to Riverside?
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Quoting 400. washingtonian115:
It's still 8 days away.A lot can change.


yes things always change

hopefully for the better warm and wet not cold and icy
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 187 Comments: 58167
Quoting 415. nwobilderburg:


i think im just about done with rain... we got hit by a really strong band earlier... i got soaked


You know what umbrellas are, right?
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Quoting nonblanche:


Snow on the Stillwater range. See how cropped our pasture is? We sold 12 of our 14 goats yesterday. I was afraid all I would get would be responses from goat rodeo wannabes, its the time of year and Craigslist is full of Goats Wanted listings from that sort. However a family much like ours bought the whole lot, they have a good market for cabrito where they live. The youngest girl got to hold Baby Eight in her lap for their drive home.

So now Angel and Dancer have the pen and pasture to themselves, and the grass can recover.

I miss them. But that's management, rather than hoarding or collecting.

Good to see some snow out east of you. Selling your animals has to be the toughest part of raising them.
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Quoting 410. KoritheMan:

I'm socially impaired AND humor impaired. Some people receive them positively, some people receive them negatively. Some people don't receive them at all, like you just didn't. :P


Kori, I think you're funny.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27561


i think im just about done with rain... we got hit by a really strong band earlier... i got soaked
Member Since: October 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 943

Quoting 412. nwobilderburg:


your pretty funny bro
Shh... You'll embarrass me.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Search and Recovery Operation for MH370

Media Release
1 April 2014

Ten planes and nine ships will assist in Tuesday's search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority has determined a search area of about 120,000 square kilometres, west of Perth.

Ten military planes—two Royal Australian Air Force P3 Orions, two Malaysian C-130s, a Chinese Ilyushin IL-76, a United States Navy P8 Poseidon, a Japanese Gulfstream jet, a Republic of Korea P3 Orion, a Royal New Zealand Air Force P3, a Japanese P3 Orion—will assist in the search, with a civil jet providing a communications relay.

Nine ships have been tasked to search in four separate areas. Australian Defence Vessel Ocean Shield departed HMAS Stirling on Monday night, with a pinger locator.

Weather in the search area is expected to be poor, with areas of low visibility.

A Joint Agency Coordination Centre (JACC) was established on Monday and is being led by Air Chief Marshal (Retd) Angus Houston AC AFC (Ret'd) in Perth to effectively communicate Australian government activities in relation to the search and recovery operation.



I'm happy to see the Australians have established a joint command center, something which has been missing for much of this search. It's hard enough to effectively run a search of this magnitude, but having multiple nations and agencies makes it almost impossible with some kind of joint agency command. The recovery of the last "promising" orange thing I read about turned out to be a giant dead jellyfish. Very tough search.
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Quoting 410. KoritheMan:

I'm socially impaired AND humor impaired. Some people receive them positively, some people receive them negatively. Some people don't receive them at all, like you just didn't. :P


your pretty funny bro
Member Since: October 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 943
Good evening Sensei, how was your Day?
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Quoting 409. Dakster:


Sorry. I keep forgetting you are humor impaired.
I'm socially impaired AND humor impaired. Some people receive them positively, some people receive them negatively. Some people don't receive them at all, like you just didn't. :P
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Quoting 406. KoritheMan:

I was exhibiting another lame attempt at humor.


Sorry. I keep forgetting you are humor impaired.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27561
Quoting 402. Dakster:


NSA has satellites in orbit that can read the VIN number off the dash of your car while it is moving. What do they need drones for?


Real time recon for insertion, Halo cover, etc, etc.

A Tactical advantage is to own the night from above and keep ones people safe as they tend to the Mission.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131961

Quoting 402. Dakster:


NSA has satellites in orbit that can read the VIN number off the dash of your car while it is moving. What do they need drones for?
I was exhibiting another lame attempt at humor.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Search and Recovery Operation for MH370

Media Release
1 April 2014

Ten planes and nine ships will assist in Tuesday's search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority has determined a search area of about 120,000 square kilometres, west of Perth.

Ten military planes—two Royal Australian Air Force P3 Orions, two Malaysian C-130s, a Chinese Ilyushin IL-76, a United States Navy P8 Poseidon, a Japanese Gulfstream jet, a Republic of Korea P3 Orion, a Royal New Zealand Air Force P3, a Japanese P3 Orion—will assist in the search, with a civil jet providing a communications relay.

Nine ships have been tasked to search in four separate areas. Australian Defence Vessel Ocean Shield departed HMAS Stirling on Monday night, with a pinger locator.

Weather in the search area is expected to be poor, with areas of low visibility.

A Joint Agency Coordination Centre (JACC) was established on Monday and is being led by Air Chief Marshal (Retd) Angus Houston AC AFC (Ret'd) in Perth to effectively communicate Australian government activities in relation to the search and recovery operation.


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Snow on the Stillwater range. See how cropped our pasture is? We sold 12 of our 14 goats yesterday. I was afraid all I would get would be responses from goat rodeo wannabes, its the time of year and Craigslist is full of Goats Wanted listings from that sort. However a family much like ours bought the whole lot, they have a good market for cabrito where they live. The youngest girl got to hold Baby Eight in her lap for their drive home.

So now Angel and Dancer have the pen and pasture to themselves, and the grass can recover.

I miss them. But that's management, rather than hoarding or collecting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 401. Tropicsweatherpr:
Go to my ENSO blog and see how is the comparison between 1997 and 2014 in terms of Nino 3.4 warming.
No :).
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Quoting 379. KoritheMan:

Sounds like ammunition for the NSA.


NSA has satellites in orbit that can read the VIN number off the dash of your car while it is moving. What do they need drones for?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11376
Go to my ENSO blog and see how is the comparison between 1997 and 2014 in terms of Nino 3.4 warming.
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Quoting 399. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


looks like a closed cold core low forms at the end of the run 850mb darker shades of blue over apps mid atl regions shows possible frozen spring precip
It's still 8 days away.A lot can change.
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Quoting 396. washingtonian115:
I see the storm that some models are indicating will bring snow is showing up on that model..


looks like a closed cold core low forms at the end of the run 850mb darker shades of blue over apps mid atl regions shows possible frozen spring precip
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 187 Comments: 58167
Quoting 393. PedleyCA:


It'll be awhile.


Excellent. Just hope it clears out by my 5am commute.
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Quoting 395. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I see the storm that some models are indicating will bring snow is showing up on that model..
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 187 Comments: 58167
Portlight is asking bloggers to blog about emergency preparedness and people with disabilities and then share your blog on Facebook and Twitter using the hashtag #ruready.



R U Ready? Sheltering in Place and Evacuation for the Disabled
By: Portlight, 9:10 PM CDT on March 31, 2014


This guide is a starting point to personally prepare for a disaster. More information will be needed depending on the type of hazard and one%u2019s functional needs. There is a tendency to avoid thinking about emergencies, and this can produce greater consequences for people with disabilities than for people without disabilities.

It is extremely important that in any emergency one is able to shelter in place for at least 72 hours before rescue personnel arrive. It should also be understood that personal preparedness is a process rather than an endpoint, so ongoing considerations need to be taken in order to ensure safety. This fact sheet contains suggested guidelines that may vary depending on one%u2019s own personal health preparedness capabilities.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131961


It'll be awhile.
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Quoting 349. beell:


That metaphor is as lame as a duck. Not a metaphorical lame duck. A real duck that is actually lame.



Usually caused by Bumblefoot, a bacterial infection from an injury.
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Well dat dont matta at all to us in reality land.

Darn, a slice!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131961
200 million don't buy it.
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Cat-4 145mph. This is my background on my XP Partition on this computer. Edit: Hurricane Kenneth 2011
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Rain totals from weekend...
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Quoting 291. DoctorDave1:


OK, smart-aleck. This is the typical response on this forum, full of false bravado and unable to direct address any subject that does not fit your agenda. I have done Google searches for government-led efforts to replant forests. No luck. If you know of any, feel free to provide that info, instead of your doublespeak misdirection.


Far as I know Israel is the only country that made it a cultural imperative. Keren Kaemet L'Yisrael (JNF - the Jewish National Fund in English) was what Jewish kids in the US did in the 60's and '70's. We saved our quarters in those tree shaped display cards, each one good for a tree planting.
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Quoting sar2401:

Evening, Pott. Long time, no hear. How are you doing? Except for the fires, at least 44% humidity is a good thing with a 93 degree temp. Perfect day in Alabama, high of 83, still 64, and no sign of an ice storm in the future. :-)

Doing good, all things considered :):))
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Quoting 340. Dakster:


Felt any of the recent Earthquakes at your house?


Not since the 4.1
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Quoting 376. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Alright you got me Kori, I confess, both.
Takes a psycho to know a psycho.

:P
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Tuesday:
•Overall threat: low
•An isolated severe storm in the southern Plains (hail, some tornado threat), then scattered evening/night t-storms with hail in parts of Kansas and Missouri.

Wednesday:
•Overall threat: medium
•Scattered severe t-storms from the mid-Mississippi Valley to north Texas. Some Texas, Oklahoma, southern Kansas cells may spawn tornadoes, along with large hail. Mainly a large hail threat farther north.

​Thursday:
•Overall threat: HIGH
•Severe t-storms from Missouri and Downstate Illinois to east Texas sweeping east in the evening into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valleys. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging straight-line winds are all possible.

Friday:
•Overall threat: medium
•Scattered severe t-storms from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast. Damaging straight-line winds will be the most common threat, however, some tornadoes are also possible in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
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Quoting 372. flsky:
There was a recent segment on "60 Minutes" re commercially built and available drones. Looks to become a huge industry. I can see both good and bad outcomes.

Man flies drone over Harlem explosion site, NYPD steps in




USA made drones for commercial use





like anything some use it for good while others use it for bad
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 187 Comments: 58167
Quoting 356. KoritheMan:

Tampa-biased. Why am I not surprised? :)


ive seen a lot of Tampa predictions this year... dont know why
Member Since: October 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 943
more severe weather!
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Quoting 372. flsky:
There was a recent segment on "60 Minutes" re commercially built and available drones. Looks to become a huge industry. I can see both good and bad outcomes.

Man flies drone over Harlem explosion site, NYPD steps in




USA made drones for commercial use


Sounds like ammunition for the NSA.
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Quoting 367. sar2401:

Cool! You've got to do some videos when you get it. Are you going to launch it off the roof and gain some extra altitude? I want to hear what kind of command range you get with the it. One of the SAR teams that's using was saying the return home feature works well as long as you're not in area where you get obstructions to the GPS signals. They were testing it in rough terrain in some 5,000 foot mountains and ran into problems with control range ant return home thing. You shouldn't have those kind of problem in Toronto. One of the guys said there's an app where you can practice using your phone before you actually fly. If I had an extra $983 lying around, I'd buy one in a heartbeat, you lucky dog.
its only because of my tax rtn sar other than that I would not of been able to do it but I get a large return over 3g

my first interest is to send it up when we get those distant storms blowing up in the summer so I can get some nice inflow pictures of storms blowing up off the lake breeze and storm fronts moving in from the west

I don't think I would use mine for police activity or things just general pictures and weather events mostly

bet it be great storm chasing with one

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 187 Comments: 58167
Quoting 364. KoritheMan:

Worried or excited? Don't hide. :)
Alright you got me Kori, I confess, both.
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Quoting flsky:
There was a recent segment on "60 Minutes" re commercially built and available drones. Looks to become a huge industry. I can see both good and bad outcomes.

Man flies drone over Harlem explosion site, NYPD steps in




USA made drones for commercial use



What a difference eight years makes. This thing we were experimenting with in 2006 looks like a toy compared to the drone helicopters available now.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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