Dangerous Category 4 Hellen Nears Madagascar

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:14 PM GMT on March 30, 2014

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Extremely dangerous Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Hellen is bearing down on Madagascar after an extraordinary burst of rapid intensification brought the cyclone from a 60 mph tropical storm to a high-end Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds in just 24 hours. That 90 mph increase in winds in 24 hours is not far below the record intensification rate of Hurricane Wilma in 2005, which was 110 mph in 24 hours. Official bulletins from La Réunion indicate the central pressure dropped 61 mb in 24 hrs, from 986mb at 1800 UTC Saturday to 925mb at 1800 UTC Sunday. They warn in their 18 UTC Sunday advisory:

HELLEN IS LIKELY TO BE ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONES EVER SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN CHANNEL SINCE THE SATELLITE ERA (1967). THE LIKELIHOOD IS INCREASING FOR AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN CAPE SAINT-ANDRE AND MAHAJONGA. THE RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM SURGE NWP HAS BEEN RUN AND SHOWS PHENOMENAL SEA ELEVATIONS IN THE AREA EXPOSED TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS (EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK). THE STORM SURGE COULD REACH 2 - 4 METERS (7 - 13 FEET) IN THE ESTUARY OF THE BETSIBOKA RIVER (MAHAJONGA), AND MORE THAN 7 METERS (23 FEET) IN THE BAY OF BALY (SOALALA), AND 1 - 4 METERS ON THE COASTLINE EAST OF CAPE SAINT-ANDRE. ALL PREPARATIONS FOR A "WORST CASE" SCENARIO SHOULD BE UNDERWAY.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Hellen nearing Madagascar at 12 UTC March 29, 2014. At the time, Hellen was a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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276. ekogaia
12:11 PM GMT on March 31, 2014
Again, as an African, I must raise my concern with listers apparent lack of engagement with Hellen which will have a massive impact on an extremely poverty stricken part of the world. I have been fortunate enough to visit this area, sailing through the Mahajunga to Cap St Andre area which this cyclone has hit, in 1995. It is generally low lying with primarily subsistence farmers on the land. As it is the end of summer rice harvests will be hard hit as will anyone living on the flats, especially with storm surges of around 7m predicted in some bays, which are shallow and deep, a disaster for surge!
I doubt we will get much news out of this area - even the largest local town Mahajunga is a relative backwater. The area is severely degraded by slash and burn agriculture so flooding and silting will also add to the misery and woes.
I am unsure as to how we as outsiders can assist in this but I have put out calls here in SA to alert news services of the pending disaster in this area and motivating for support from the region.
It also looks like this storm will shift across the channel and dump a significant amount of rain in Mozambique where there is already heavy ground saturation. I hope it does not go too far inland as there are reportedly serious problems with the massive Kariba dam wall
https://www.zambianwatchdog.com/govt-official-iss ue-contradictory-statements-on-state-of-kariba-dam /comment-page-1/
http://harare24.com/index-id-news-zk-12168.html
https://www.newsday.co.zw/2014/03/20/kariba-dam-w all-faces-collapse/

So please people, I know there are many good networkers on this list - please motivate some assistance to these pending and unfolding crises in my particular backyard.
Thanks
Glenn
Member Since: November 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
275. beell
11:48 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 205. sar2401:

Which brings up another rant - why don't all WFO's do it the same? But I'll save that for another night. :-)


Another "but". I kinda like the individual freedom still remaining to the NWS forecasters at each office to develop their own style. Makes your local bunch more like friends and family. I am familiar with the style and tone of the boyz and girlz here at HGX. To the point of being able to recognize when a newb/intern is producing some of the text products.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16649
274. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:42 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
273. pcola57
11:22 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
272. AussieStorm
11:01 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Mayotte will remember Hellen



The least we can say is 'Hellen' remain rooted in their minds. Meteorological phenomenon that nobody expected, has unleashed elements for nearly 72 hours, causing relatively minor damage compared to what would have been reported.

While prefectural authorities, according to information from the weather station France Pamandzi had reassured people Friday night, ensuring that the effects of what was still a tropical storm would be minimal, Hellen was a surprise to all levels. First, because it is strongly intensified unlike announced forecasts, taking over motorists on the roads Mayotte Saturday during the day. Indeed, with heavy rains and winds, fallen trees and mudslides have cut roads on the island, causing serious traffic problems. Prefecture had established the strong vigilance rain on Thursday evening and a departmental operational unit on Saturday to coordinate security and emergency. Orange alert has been declared in the evening, while the elements raged for the past few hours. rivers, swollen by water spouts - there were 239 mm of precipitation Mt samboro - are out of their beds, as M'tsangmouji, where an impressive video filmed by firefighters in action shows a car getting carried away by the waves, such a vulgar wooden board. wave intensified rapidly and waves up to 5 meters have caused serious damage in marinas Mamoudzou Dzaoudzi Hagnoudrou where skiffs broke away and smashed against the rocks or stranded. flights from Saturday afternoon and Sunday were canceled and postponed to Monday by the airlines. seaside, the passage between the Little and Great Earth, vessel traffic service of maritime transport (ST M) is disrupted since Saturday. For safety reasons and because of the winds and rains, schedules and amphidromous barges are not respected. Hellen, part of the Mozambican coast and strengthening in the warm waters of the canal became so intense tropical cyclone that he approached closer to our island in the night from Saturday to Sunday at around 3am. floods, falling trees, mudslides, power outages, collapse of the floor and wind gusts nearly 100 km / h so many side effects that have worried Mayotte , most remained locked safely home. Our island has escaped the worst, because the meteor was not expected arrival has caught the prefectural authorities. Intervention and emergency services were in great demand all over the island, including clear roads. Malicious people did not fail to take advantage of this disruption to commit burglary, as was the case in the capital. Voting in the second round of municipal elections was, however, maintained the general surprise. Hellen, continuing his race to Madagascar, moved away gradually during the day Sunday, leaving some visible marks of its passage, though, and can be welcomed, no casualties were reported. Sunday evening, the hurricane was located 200 km south of Mayotte and dangerously close to the west coast of Madagascar. The meteor should then initiate a turn south and head towards Juan de Nova. For today, the weather should be rainy and gloomy and storms are still awaited. Swell is still very strong and the greatest caution is required at sea

Translated from: Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
271. AussieStorm
10:58 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Very intense tropical cyclone Hellen struck Madagascar at about 00:00 GMT on 31 March.




Very intense tropical cyclone Hellen struck Madagascar at about 00:00 GMT on 31 March. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall was near 15.3 S, 45.4 E. Hellen brought 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 240 km/h (149 mph). Wind gusts in the area may have been considerably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Hellen's strength (category 4) at landfall includes: Storm surge generally 4.0-5.5 metres (13-18 feet) above normal. Curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the centre of the storm. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 3 metres (10 feet) above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 10 km (6 miles). There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
270. wxchaser97
10:52 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 269. nwobilderburg:


I think this is a glitch
Or something weird is going on with the weather

Cause 55 dbz storms are definitely not ripping through New Jersey right now

Looks like bright banding. As the snowflakes precipitate from the clouds, the air column they are in is warming as height decreases. As the snowflakes fall into a layer that is above freezing, they being to melt. For a period of time, especially if the temperature isn't much above 0C, the the snowflake will only partially melt. This leaves a smaller snowflake surrounded by melted water. A higher reflectivity is seen on radar as this snow/melt water combination reflects more of the radar beam back compared to a solid snowflake or a regular raindrop. Once the snowflake melts completely and there is now just liquid rain, the reflectivity looks normal again.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
269. nwobilderburg
10:30 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 267. nwobilderburg:



, what's going on!!!


I think this is a glitch
Or something weird is going on with the weather

Cause 55 dbz storms are definitely not ripping through New Jersey right now
Member Since: October 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 765
268. Sfloridacat5
10:20 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Nice warm week. Actually a little too warm towards the end of the week.
7 Day for Fort Myers

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6886
267. nwobilderburg
10:20 AM GMT on March 31, 2014



, what's going on!!!
Member Since: October 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 765
266. LargoFl
10:01 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Good Morning!...............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38523
265. Tornado6042008X
8:50 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
@sar2401 post 260- I spent most of my free time watching the Weather Channel since I was 5-6 years old. I was very engrossed in it in fact. I don't watch TWC as much now as I used to but now I'm always on the computer, learning more about meteorology. I can better see how storms are going to affect us on the weather models.
Member Since: March 29, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
264. barbamz
8:27 AM GMT on March 31, 2014

Good morning. Another video of the storms yesterday in Hong Kong with excessive rains and hail.
This video however is quite hilarious :-)

------------------------------

Cannot find any news about impacts of Hellen on Madagascar yet.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 54 Comments: 5949
263. nwobilderburg
7:29 AM GMT on March 31, 2014


this thing fell apart quickly... thats good for Madagascar... though it seemed to be a pretty unpopulated region
Member Since: October 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 765
262. sar2401
6:11 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting Skyepony:

Hellen Wind..


Looks like it's starting to weaken a bit.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
261. sar2401
6:09 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting KoritheMan:
I agree about them being bunk. Which is exactly what I meant.

As far as the unknowns, we DO know that wherever a trough exists, a ridge will exist downstream, enhanced by the trough. And vise versa.

That's why I suggested that a ridge over the southern United States is not all that conducive to US hurricane landfalls. Recall 2010, which had an exceptionally large semipermanent ridge situated over the southern United States for much of the summer, which steered otherwise dangerous US hurricanes smack dab into Mexico or Central America. The northerly flow on the backside of that ridge helped to enhance the persistent east coast trough that year.

We don't possess the knowledge base needed for long-range forecasting, particularly months in advance. But we know enough to know that troughs pump ridges, and ridges pump troughs. It's why you'll see storms like Danielle and Karl (2004) recurve east of 60W, while hurricanes situated west of there tend to continue moving toward the US at the same time. The pattern essentially becomes east coast ridge > central Atlantic trough > eastern Atlantic ridge.

The height anomalies I delineated above probably don't mean anything for the summer, but if the trough remained over the southern US, we would expect a downstream ridge over the western Atlantic and potentially US east coast.

We have knowledge of teleconnection.

I agree about the ridge and trough locations being absolutely vital to landfall probabilities when a tropical cyclone forms and gets on the move. What has been extraordinary over the past nine years is how few tropical cyclones of any kind have affected the Gulf coast. Southeast agriculture depends on summer rains from tropical storms and, except for a few weak storms, there haven't been any. That's one of the reasons why Alabama was in such a long-term drought until recently. During that time, we've had both troughs and ridges, but their relative positions haven't resulted in anywhere near the usual tropical cyclone landfalls in the Gulf. There are some other teleconnections we don't understand happening, at least with what affects the Gulf. I will be pushing up daisies long before we get this figured out but, I hope, you're on whatever version of this blog is in 2060, telling newbies how all this works. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
260. sar2401
6:01 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting Bluestorm5:
You'll be surprised Isabel was the first hurricane I tracked by watching Weather Channel when I was 8. Tracking Katrina on Weather Channel the whole time remain very clear in my memory (heck, I remember telling the class that Tropical Storm Katrina was just named off coast of Miami...). I'm 19 years old now entering my 12th hurricane season of tracking.

You're quite unusual. Most 8 year olds don't spend much time watching the Weather Channel. :-) I'm trying to remember how young I was when I had a real interest in weather. Since I'm 68, that was a long time ago. I think I was about 10. I don't even remember what kicked it off, just something I seemed to develop a growing interest in. I built my own weather station when I was 11, and was tracking hurricanes on paper charts you'd buy from the weather bureau before the season when I was 12. I remember the 1958 season was a complete bust, but I learned how to use my grease pencil on the map's plastic overlay and calculate lat/long from the hourly updates I'd pick up on the hurricane net on shortwave. 1959 bought Gracie, the first cat 4 I tracked, and it survived long enough inland that it bought some flooding to the Cleveland area, where I grew up. I remember '58 and '59 as being hotter than blue blazes, with a lot of thunderstorms and some tornadoes, but it's all pretty hazy at this juncture. In my wildest, Buck Rogers type imagination, I never thought we'd have the tools we have today, with me being able to communicate instantly with people across the world, and getting real time updates on weather via a computer and satellites. My news on a hurricane's progress, other than my own tracking came from the newspaper that came the next day. In many ways, we live in the most wonderful times ever experienced by humans.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
259. Skyepony (Mod)
6:00 AM GMT on March 31, 2014

Hellen Wind..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 37852
258. KoritheMan
5:55 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 257. sar2401:

I have no interest in long range forecasting either, mainly because I think it's a bunch of bunk. I don't care how good Gray et al are as meteorologists, we just don't have the kind of tools to make those kinds of forecast with any precision until way later in the season. I do think the northern Gulf being so cold, and the anomalies on the chart means something. What they mean, I have no idea, bu the situation is unusual enough that it's going to lead to other unusual things. Once we start to learn how to connect the dots, it will all mean something. Right now, they are just data points open to speculation.
I agree about them being bunk. Which is exactly what I meant.

As far as the unknowns, we DO know that wherever a trough exists, a ridge will exist downstream, enhanced by the trough. And vise versa.

That's why I suggested that a ridge over the southern United States is not all that conducive to US hurricane landfalls. Recall 2010, which had an exceptionally large semipermanent ridge situated over the southern United States for much of the summer, which steered otherwise dangerous US hurricanes smack dab into Mexico or Central America. The northerly flow on the backside of that ridge helped to enhance the persistent east coast trough that year.

We don't possess the knowledge base needed for long-range forecasting, particularly months in advance. But we know enough to know that troughs pump ridges, and ridges pump troughs. It's why you'll see storms like Danielle and Karl (2004) recurve east of 60W, while hurricanes situated west of there tend to continue moving toward the US at the same time. The pattern essentially becomes east coast ridge > central Atlantic trough > eastern Atlantic ridge.

The height anomalies I delineated above probably don't mean anything for the summer, but if the trough remained over the southern US, we would expect a downstream ridge over the western Atlantic and potentially US east coast.

We have knowledge of teleconnection.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20609
257. sar2401
5:46 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting KoritheMan:
It's interesting you note the pattern, because the cold air in the southern United States is an indication that we have been underneath a trough rather than a ridge. While sitting underneath either may not be situationally favorable for US hurricane landfalls, I would say that on average a trough over the southern US is more conducive to westward-moving hurricanes approaching the US coastline.

Here are the 500 mb geopotential height anomalies for the January 1 through March 25 period:







By no means is this a perfect pattern, but it puts the east coast at a precarious risk from passing tropical cyclones, particularly those coming north of the Caribbean. If the longwave pattern retrogrades just a little bit westward in the coming months, the pattern for landfalls will become much more perilous.

Gray/Klotzbach mentioned in one of their publications a few years ago that there is a medium positive correlation between spring 500 mb heights along the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada persisting into the summer. I have not found this correlation to generally hold, but that's admittedly based only on the last few years.

I have no interest in long-range forecasting, especially on magnitudes demanded by seasonal analogs. Just showing you.

I have no interest in long range forecasting either, mainly because I think it's a bunch of bunk. I don't care how good Gray et al are as meteorologists, we just don't have the kind of tools to make those kinds of forecast with any precision until way later in the season. I do think the northern Gulf being so cold, and the anomalies on the chart means something. What they mean, I have no idea, bu the situation is unusual enough that it's going to lead to other unusual things. Once we start to learn how to connect the dots, it will all mean something. Right now, they are just data points open to speculation.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
256. Skyepony (Mod)
5:45 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Forest / Wild Fire in KS USA on Monday, 31 March, 2014 at 03:27 (03:27 AM) UTC.
Description
A massive grass fire spreading approximately 1,500 acres damaged at least four homes and numerous other outbuildings northwest of Topeka on Sunday afternoon, but no injuries were reported, Shawnee County authorities said. The cause of the massive fire just south of Shawnee County State Park was unknown and under investigation, Silver Lake Fire Department Captain Graig Brummer said Sunday evening. The blaze, which traveled north and east at a quick rate of speed, was one of at least 20 grass fires reported Sunday in Shawnee County, a county dispatcher told The Topeka Capital-Journal. Authorities said the first reports of the large fire came out around 12:30 p.m. in the 5700 block of N.W. Humphrey, and it quickly spread north to N.W. 78th with Humphrey being the eastern border. The blaze went west as far as Hodges Road. Shawnee County Sheriff Herman Jones said one house was destroyed and at least three others had significant damage. Brummer said the outbuildings damaged or destroyed were still being counted but numbed at least a handful. No one was in the destroyed house on N.W. 66th that neighbors described as a newly remodeled vacant modular home. Brummer added he hadn’t seen a grass fire "quite to this extent," and it ranked on the "upper end" of fires he has dealt with. "(Authorities) were able evacuate as many of these homes as possible, therefore no injuries," Jones said, adding the strong winds crews battled had gusts up to an estimated 30 mph. "The quick response saved a lot of those structures. You just really got to be careful with these types of conditions." While firefighters were still dealing with the fire well into the afternoon, it was relatively under control when Jones gave his report around 3 p.m. "I got to say because of our quick response we were able to mitigate, or at least minimize what we have," Jones said. As of 5:30 p.m., Brummer said the majority of the fire was out and under control, but they were still working spot fires, doing cleanup work and collecting information. Crews were still on scene at 8 p.m. A cost estimate to the damage done wasn’t known Sunday night.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 37852
255. Bluestorm5
5:43 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 230. sar2401:

There are a lot of people in your age range who , even if they remember watching the hurricanes in 2004-2005, really hadn't a developed the interest in weather to seek out a place like this. After thinking tonight we are going on year 10 of seasons completely unlike those, and counting backwards, how many young people just don't know much about a season where every two weeks, here comes another one. I can't help but think that we'll have a more active season this year than last, since last year was about as bad as we've had since 2004-2005, but that's more a gambler's fallacy than it is anything scientific. The old "If I sit here long enough, this machine is bound to hit", which is true, but "long enough" can be a very long time. I was very surprised at how cold it was at the beach last week, and how cold the water at Destin was. I realize that's not much of an indicator, but I've been going to the beach for a while in winter, and this is the only time I couldn't wait to get back to the condo and warm up. :-)
You'll be surprised Isabel was the first hurricane I tracked by watching Weather Channel when I was 8. Tracking Katrina on Weather Channel the whole time remain very clear in my memory (heck, I remember telling the class that Tropical Storm Katrina was just named off coast of Miami...). I'm 19 years old now entering my 12th hurricane season of tracking.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8009
254. Skyepony (Mod)
5:41 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Hailstorm in Australia on Sunday, 30 March, 2014 at 11:43 (11:43 AM) UTC.
Description
Golf-ball sized hail has smashed parts of Sydney's west as two fast moving severe thunderstorm cells swept northeast across the city. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) on Sunday night issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Sydney, the Blue Mountains, the Hawkesbury and Central Coast, advising people to prepare for large hailstones and heavy rainfall. The cell is "extremely quickly moving," rumbling across the greater Sydney area at between 60-80 km/h, a BOM spokesman told AAP. "Severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Parramatta, Katoomba and Richmond. These thunderstorms are moving towards the north," the BOM's warning, issued at 8.20 pm (AEDT), says. "Large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding are likely." In 30 minutes 35mm of rain fell at Box Hill and the largest downpour was recorded at Wilmot, where 46mm came down in about the same time. At Erskine Park 20mm reportedly fell in 10 minutes. The storm is expected to pass by midnight on Sunday. No storms are expected around Sydney on Monday but the BOM is predicting some very light showers. Roofing on the Blue Mountains hospital and the Katoomba sports and aquatic centre collapsed during the storm but no one was hurt, NSW Fire and Rescue Superintendent Paul Johnstone said. Evacuation wasn't necessary but four fire crews were sent to the hospital to help relocate ten patients. No one was at the swimming centre. Fire & Rescue NSW received about 50 calls for help.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 37852
253. Bluestorm5
5:41 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 240. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm young enough to never have tracked a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic before. Nor have I seen a major hurricane landfall on the United States.
I was pretty young during 2003-2005 seasons, but I still remember tracking storms like Isabel, Charley, Frances, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma by watching Weather Channel. I'll never forget what I was doing the morning Katrina made her landfall and what kind of breakfast my mom cooked up for me (it was grits) so I can eat and watch Weather Channel. Of course I've never seriously tracked a Category 5 on computer with all of those datas or major hurricane landfalling in USA yet.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8009
252. sar2401
5:36 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting nwobilderburg:





i finally get a chance to use this

The North Koreans are holding live fire naval drills near the DMZ hoping to provoke the South Koreans. No shots have been exchanged.

Edit: It appears the South Koreans are now firing shells of their own into the ocean off the DMZ. Neither side is firing at specific targets, just killing a few fish. Just the usual fun and games over there.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
251. sar2401
5:33 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting KoritheMan:


Ike was rebounding when it made landfall.

Relative to peak intensity, yeah, but...

That's what I mean. When we've had this long stretch, we get into shoulda, coulda, woulda with storms. Hurricane Ophelia in 2005 hung around for what seemed like forever, flirted with cat 3 for a little while, and fluctuated between a cat 1 and TS several times while never actually made landfall until Nova Scotia, and still was pretty healthy as an extratropical storm when it went over Newfoundland. IN any other season, Ophelia would have been a well remembered hurricane. In 2005, it was a footnote. That's what happens when it's really an active season. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
250. KoritheMan
5:25 AM GMT on March 31, 2014

Quoting 249. RyanSperrey:
Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy was the last Major Storm that sparked a lot of interest in Meteorology in the United States.  In fact, the build-up to Sandy had waaaaaaaaaaaaay more press and publication than any of the 2004-2005 storms.  Simply because of how huge and weird the storm was + the amount of time we KNEW where the storm was going to hit. 

Even last year, the severe lack of storms was a big attraction for this site.  I remember seeing a ton of new faces here wondering why there was nothing going on in the hurricane season.  Most of those faces were probably people that were introduced to awesome weather events in 2012 via Sandy.  Most were probably even North Easterners. 

Other than Sandy and Katrina, I'd say that the Ivan/Charley double whammy were the most impactful storms in recent memory...in terms of attracting people to the meteorology world. 
I still say Isidore and Lili should qualify, but that's probably because I'm biased to those storms, living in the same areas they impacted.

Lili scared us ****less for awhile, though.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20609
249. RyanSperrey
5:23 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy was the last Major Storm that sparked a lot of interest in Meteorology in the United States.  In fact, the build-up to Sandy had waaaaaaaaaaaaay more press and publication than any of the 2004-2005 storms.  Simply because of how huge and weird the storm was + the amount of time we KNEW where the storm was going to hit. 

Even last year, the severe lack of storms was a big attraction for this site.  I remember seeing a ton of new faces here wondering why there was nothing going on in the hurricane season.  Most of those faces were probably people that were introduced to awesome weather events in 2012 via Sandy.  Most were probably even North Easterners. 

Other than Sandy and Katrina, I'd say that the Ivan/Charley double whammy were the most impactful storms in recent memory...in terms of attracting people to the meteorology world. 
Member Since: October 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 281
248. sar2401
5:22 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting nwobilderburg:


Irene and Sandy were pretty bad though, so theres still a lot of storm damage

Yes, there was, although it would have been less from Sandy if the East Coast had learned more lessons from Irene.
anytime a hurricane makes a more or less direct hit on the East Coast, especially New York and New Jersey, there's going to be a lot of damage because the area is so densely populated and there is so much high value property there. The rains that accompany these storms always overwhelm the drainage systems in the New England area because they just aren't geologically prepared to handle tropical rainfall amounts. I'm hoping (but not holding my breath) that these two storms will at least change beachfront zoning and improve building codes.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
247. hurricanes2018
5:13 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
update on severe weather!! new weather maps are up
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 34162
246. KoritheMan
5:11 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 243. nwobilderburg:


Irene and Sandy were pretty bad though, so theres still a lot of storm damage


The SSHS needs a serious refinement.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20609
245. KoritheMan
5:10 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 241. sar2401:

Yeah, 2008 was a decent year with both Ike and Gustav, although it wasn't much of a season after Ike. Still, even that's now going on 6 years of relative inactivity. This is already an unprecedented stretch with no majors making landfall in the US, and the history is even big ones like Ike weakened before landfall. It's hard to imagine this stretch can continue but, if we have a combination of a strong El Nino and conditions otherwise similar to last year, it every well may.


Ike was rebounding when it made landfall.

Relative to peak intensity, yeah, but...
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20609
244. sar2401
5:10 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting Astrometeor:
I don't remember much about hurricanes, most of my knowledge has come from the last two years from here.

2004 doesn't register at all. 2005, only Katrina and something about a traffic jam and Rita. 2008...there was a period when the local gas shot to above $4...strange.

2010, I remember Alex and people on TWC seemed excited, but I was so confused, it didn't seem that exciting. I mean, seriously, when has there ever been a 'cane to hit TN? Yeah...bad geography for me.

The spring of 2006 happened yesterday, I even have some ghosty dreams of '98...which my mind probably made up.

I didn't know about 9/11 until a couple years later...even though I had already begun to have memories at the time...

Now I'm glad to be here, introduced by a former science teacher.

Edit: Night everyone.

GN, Astro. Every generation's time will come as will yours.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
243. nwobilderburg
5:10 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 241. sar2401:

Yeah, 2008 was a decent year with both Ike and Gustav, although it wasn't much of a season after Ike. Still, even that's now going on 6 years of relative inactivity. This is already an unprecedented stretch with no majors making landfall in the US, and the history is even big ones like Ike weakened before landfall. It's hard to imagine this stretch can continue but, if we have a combination of a strong El Nino and conditions otherwise similar to last year, it every well may.


Irene and Sandy were pretty bad though, so theres still a lot of storm damage
Member Since: October 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 765
242. nwobilderburg
5:08 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 240. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm young enough to never have tracked a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic before. Nor have I seen a major hurricane landfall on the United States.


i watched Katrina and most of 2005 on the news when i was 10... i havent tracked anything, yet!
Member Since: October 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 765
241. sar2401
5:07 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting wxgeek723:


Well, a lot of us were around for 2008, which I would call our last big year. I actually joined the blog in the midst of Hurricane Gustav and was still just an embryo handle during Ike. Definitely haven't had as much of an excitement level on the blog since those days. Even the posting rates during Irene and Sandy couldn't compare to the some 5000 comments Dr. Masters was getting on some of his Ike entries.

Yeah, 2008 was a decent year with both Ike and Gustav, although it wasn't much of a season after Ike. Still, even that's now going on 6 years of relative inactivity. This is already an unprecedented stretch with no majors making landfall in the US, and the history is even big ones like Ike weakened before landfall. It's hard to imagine this stretch can continue but, if we have a combination of a strong El Nino and conditions otherwise similar to last year, it every well may.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
240. TropicalAnalystwx13
5:06 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
I'm young enough to never have tracked a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic before. Nor have I seen a major hurricane landfall on the United States.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
239. nwobilderburg
5:06 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 229. Doppler22:
Not weather related but...
BREAKING: North and South Korea exchanged fire across maritime border, S.Korea's semi-official Yonhap news agency said.





i finally get a chance to use this
Member Since: October 6, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 765
238. KoritheMan
5:03 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 230. sar2401:

There are a lot of people in your age range who , even if they remember watching the hurricanes in 2004-2005, really hadn't a developed the interest in weather to seek out a place like this. After thinking tonight we are going on year 10 of seasons completely unlike those, and counting backwards, how many young people just don't know much about a season where every two weeks, here comes another one. I can't help but think that we'll have a more active season this year than last, since last year was about as bad as we've had since 2004-2005, but that's more a gambler's fallacy than it is anything scientific. The old "If I sit here long enough, this machine is bound to hit", which is true, but "long enough" can be a very long time. I was very surprised at how cold it was at the beach last week, and how cold the water at Destin was. I realize that's not much of an indicator, but I've been going to the beach for a while in winter, and this is the only time I couldn't wait to get back to the condo and warm up. :-)
It's interesting you note the pattern, because the cold air in the southern United States is an indication that we have been underneath a trough rather than a ridge. While sitting underneath either may not be situationally favorable for US hurricane landfalls, I would say that on average a trough over the southern US is more conducive to westward-moving hurricanes approaching the US coastline.

Here are the 500 mb geopotential height anomalies for the January 1 through March 25 period:







By no means is this a perfect pattern, but it puts the east coast at a precarious risk from passing tropical cyclones, particularly those coming north of the Caribbean. If the longwave pattern retrogrades just a little bit westward in the coming months, the pattern for landfalls will become much more perilous.

Gray/Klotzbach mentioned in one of their publications a few years ago that there is a medium positive correlation between spring 500 mb heights along the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada persisting into the summer. I have not found this correlation to generally hold, but that's admittedly based only on the last few years.

I have no interest in long-range forecasting, especially on magnitudes demanded by seasonal analogs. Just showing you.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20609
237. Astrometeor
5:03 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
I don't remember much about hurricanes, most of my knowledge has come from the last two years from here.

2004 doesn't register at all. 2005, only Katrina and something about a traffic jam and Rita. 2008...there was a period when the local gas shot to above $4...strange.

2010, I remember Alex and people on TWC seemed excited, but I was so confused, it didn't seem that exciting. I mean, seriously, when has there ever been a 'cane to hit TN? Yeah...bad geography for me.

The spring of 2006 happened yesterday, I even have some ghosty dreams of '98...which my mind probably made up.

I didn't know about 9/11 until a couple years later...even though I had already begun to have memories at the time...

Now I'm glad to be here, introduced by a former science teacher.

Edit: Night everyone.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10280
236. Doppler22
5:00 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 233. nonblanche:


I did read earlier tonight that NoKo had a "no sailing zone" in place as they were going to be doing some shooting exercises.

Some of their shots hit in South Korean Waters so South Korea retaliated and the North responded. Residents of a nearby island have been taken to shelters
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3754
235. HurrMichaelOrl
5:00 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 217. sar2401:

Yes, it's been "THE YEAR" for quite a while now. I was thinking that we have 16 and 17 year olds here who are not old enough to really remember the last big hurricane season we had...actually, 19 or 20, depending on when they developed an interest in weather. Certainly not old enough to have watched it live and remember it. That's really quite an amazing thing when you think about it.


Very true. Starting in 2006, it's been wind shear, dry air, SAL, troughs (troughs are certainly nothing new) and mysterious failures for tropical cyclones to develop/intensify, despite apparently favorable conditions. This is the case in the Atlantic basin, at least.

Water temperatures are of course prerequisite for development and strengthening, but the last 8 years have shown that in the main development region during the peak season, it takes more than warm water for a cyclone to take off.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1118
234. sar2401
4:59 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting Jedkins01:



That depends on where you live.

Traditional tornado alley, they will round up to the next highest risk for marginal events, the farther you get away from where the SPC is centered, its harder to see anything more than a slight risk unless its going to be almost certainly a day of death and destruction.

Heck if the SPC ever issues anything more than a slight risk in Florida, I'm expecting one of the worst outbreaks in U.S. history, not just state history, and many dead.

The SPC does a pretty good job of picking out severe events for central Florida but you're right, I rarely remember a greater than 5% probability for tornadoes. Maybe it's because the vast majority will always be EFo's or EF1's. It's a lot easier to predict a tornado in Mississippi has a chance of being an EF2 or above because they are so relatively common. Maybe Florida needs its own scale, where "moderate" mean the risk of just about any tornado.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
233. nonblanche
4:57 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 229. Doppler22:
Not weather related but...
BREAKING: North and South Korea exchanged fire across maritime border, S.Korea's semi-official Yonhap news agency said.


I did read earlier tonight that NoKo had a "no sailing zone" in place as they were going to be doing some shooting exercises.
Member Since: October 21, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 256
232. hurricanes2018
4:56 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
The next significant threat of severe weather will be Wednesday and Thursday as the next storm system ejects into the Plains states.Tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be a possibility from the mid-week system, which coincides with the traditional uptick in severe weather activity across the central and south-central U.S. in early April. here we go again round two coming soon
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 34162
231. wxgeek723
4:54 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 217. sar2401:

Yes, it's been "THE YEAR" for quite a while now. I was thinking that we have 16 and 17 year olds here who are not old enough to really remember the last big hurricane season we had...actually, 19 or 20, depending on when they developed an interest in weather. Certainly not old enough to have watched it live and remember it. That's really quite an amazing thing when you think about it.


Well, a lot of us were around for 2008, which I would call our last big year. I actually joined the blog in the midst of Hurricane Gustav and was still just an embryo handle during Ike. Definitely haven't had as much of an excitement level on the blog since those days. Even the posting rates during Irene and Sandy couldn't compare to the some 5000 comments Dr. Masters was getting on some of his Ike entries.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3578
230. sar2401
4:53 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting KoritheMan:
Isidore sparked my weather interest when it hit in 2002; I was outside with my dad (who also has an interest in weather) and I was all like "OMG THIS IS SO COOL DAD". Good times.

Fast forward a bit and I remember 2004 and 2005 quite well.

EDIT to add: the only thing I regret is that I lacked actual meteorological knowledge during those years. I watched the TWC tropical updates all the time, especially during 2005, but I didn't know enough to carve my own forecasts. Would have made it better.

There are a lot of people in your age range who , even if they remember watching the hurricanes in 2004-2005, really hadn't a developed the interest in weather to seek out a place like this. After thinking tonight we are going on year 10 of seasons completely unlike those, and counting backwards, how many young people just don't know much about a season where every two weeks, here comes another one. I can't help but think that we'll have a more active season this year than last, since last year was about as bad as we've had since 2004-2005, but that's more a gambler's fallacy than it is anything scientific. The old "If I sit here long enough, this machine is bound to hit", which is true, but "long enough" can be a very long time. I was very surprised at how cold it was at the beach last week, and how cold the water at Destin was. I realize that's not much of an indicator, but I've been going to the beach for a while in winter, and this is the only time I couldn't wait to get back to the condo and warm up. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15318
229. Doppler22
4:51 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Not weather related but...
BREAKING: North and South Korea exchanged fire across maritime border, S.Korea's semi-official Yonhap news agency said.
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3754
228. KoritheMan
4:47 AM GMT on March 31, 2014

Quoting 227. nonblanche:


Hey, that doesn't look *anything* like Lucy Lawless.
That was my aunt's Xenia of choice.

I like Famke Jannsen better. :]
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20609
227. nonblanche
4:45 AM GMT on March 31, 2014
Quoting 226. KoritheMan:




Hey, that doesn't look *anything* like Lucy Lawless.
Member Since: October 21, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 256
226. KoritheMan
4:42 AM GMT on March 31, 2014

Quoting 206. severeweatherman15:
Winter Storm Xenia: How Much Snow Ahead?

Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 576 Comments: 20609

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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